Value Sires | Horse Racing Free Tips

Value Sires for ’23: Part V, First Sophomores

Today we finally come to a group that has at least had some initial opportunity to show whether or not they can replicate their own racing prowess. By the same token, of course, this means that their level of support–which in many cases will already have declined through each preceding year, as racetrack exposure draws perilously closer–may now fall off a cliff.

If the stampede to unproven sires is ludicrous, then so is the haste with which they are abandoned. Stallions whose stock should plainly be granted time to mature round a second turn are often prematurely judged. Even more precocious types often find themselves long since abandoned by the most ruthless commercial breeders, who can annually move on to a fresh group whose reputation is usefully invulnerable to any appraisal more meaningful than hype.

For most stallions, then, this is a time when sales averages are coming down, along with fees and books. It's very rare that a young sire emerges from his opening racetrack skirmishes with the authority of Gun Runner, whose first sophomores spectacularly consolidated their record-breaking domination of the freshmen preceding the group we consider today. You more often find yourself dealing with an Overanalyze, champion freshman five years ago and meanwhile discarded to South Korea.

To be fair, however, this lot have laid down a very purposeful marker as the freshmen of 2022. The top six, indeed, can also be found among the top 10 of the overall list of juvenile sires. Auspiciously, moreover, there are grounds for thinking that several, judged on the template of their own performance and pedigree, can stimulate further progress from their maturing stock.

Arguably, the best long-term value right now rests with those who might emulate the way the tragic Arrogate transformed his legacy with his first sophomores, after they had made a quiet start as juveniles. On the other hand, those sires that had assembled monster books as commercial rookies should expect to be judged pretty sternly, pretty quickly.

So we have to strike a balance. Already second crop yearlings have typically registered a depreciation of many sire brands in the sales ring. On the other hand, investors of sufficient patience, vision and bravery may decide that this is precisely the moment to roll the dice on a slower burn.

Bubbling Under:

BOLT D'ORO closed out the year strongest to secure the freshman laurels after a sustained battle with two other very promising young sires, a distinction that formalized the superiority he showed both in the sheer breadth of his quality–a stellar one-in-five starters getting black type–and notably in the sales performance of his second crop, which uniquely among the trio managed to advance the values achieved by his first.

His median, always the key measure, rose to $152,500 from the $110,000 achieved by those debut yearlings who had meanwhile been showing that it was money well spent. That's an exceptional vote of confidence, albeit perhaps partly also reflected a rather narrower choice for purchasers after numbers had to be controlled (along with his boisterous behavior, at the time) for his second season. Bolt d'Oro was back up to 174 mares for his fourth book last spring, and the quality of his mares will only be going up with his fee-now $35,000 after slipping to $15,000 in 2021. Obviously he has to work harder to achieve the same ratios now, with the stakes raised, but he has made an exemplary start.

Fairly steady stuff on the track from MO TOWN (illuminated by Myrtlewood S. romper Key Of Life) does not tell half his story, as he is an unusual example of a stallion whose business soared in his third and fourth seasons. His second crop of yearlings emerge from a book of 104 mares, but he then covered 204 in 2021 and 218 this spring. If that generates renewed momentum on the track, in a couple of years from now, this could turn out to be a smart time to get involved at just $5,000.

Army Mule | Sarah K. Andrew

BRONZE: ARMY MULE (Friesan Fire-Crafty Toast by Crafty Prospector)
$12,500 Hill 'n' Dale
This has always looked a stallion who could only have extreme outcomes. He was either going to be a dud, or prove himself exceptional value. Happily, there already seems little doubt that the switch is “on” and Army Mule appears set to build something pretty imposing on the fragile foundations of a track career that showcased freakish ability across barely four minutes, and a somewhat left-field pedigree.

His every trajectory is upward. Most importantly, his first juveniles have excelled, elevating him to fourth in the table from a smaller book (and much smaller fee) than those above him. Of his 24 winners from 61 starters, as many as five won at black-type level-the top three were tied with just one more-in tipping $2 million in purse money.

This performance had been anticipated by a stunning debut at the yearling sales, when Army Mule's first crop averaged nine times their $10,000 conception fee. In response, there was a further rebound in the size of his 2022 book, after he had slumped from 140 mares to 47 in his second season. He has now received 83 and 115 partners in the two years since. And while he couldn't quite replicate his initial yield with his second crop of yearlings, he again punched way above the kind of ratio you might expect at this stage, averaging $69,272 for 22 yearlings sold (from only 25 offered). Unsurprisingly, given his own giddy history as a yearling pinhook ($35,000 to $825,000) he also achieved dividends as high as $450,000 at the 2-year-old sales.

Originally, no doubt, breeders may have been torn between his six-length GI Carter H. success, in 1:20.94, on what proved to be the final of just three starts; and, on the other hand, some fairly unfashionable genes (albeit second and third dams both graded stakes winners). One way or another, however, things are plainly functioning in a repeatable fashion. You know what they say when it walks like a duck…

If Army Mule already sires runners like a good stallion, and sells horses like a good stallion, the chances are that he's a good stallion.

Accelerate | Lane's End

SILVER: ACCELERATE (Lookin At Lucky-Issues by Awesome Again)
$10,000 Lane's End
Of the three stallions launched into this intake at Lane's End, CITY OF LIGHT was always the golden boy. Though slow to get going, his 11 winners since midsummer already feature three at stakes level. Nobody, in short, still needs telling what he can still hope to achieve at $60,000.

At the sales, however, it has meanwhile proved much tougher going for the second crop of yearlings by the pair who started alongside him. Nonetheless I am unhesitatingly keeping the faith with the one I have liked all along.

In this series we've already nailed our colors to the Lookin At Lucky mast with Country House, believing the Ashford stalwart as likely to be underestimated as a potential sire of sires as he has always been in his own right. And there's no doubt in my mind that Accelerate is an absolutely astounding amount of horse for just $10,000.

Did anyone for a moment think that Accelerate was going to start off with a cavalcade of sprint maidens at the Keeneland spring meet? Yet having looked after his supporters very nicely with his first yearlings, he found himself childishly neglected with his second crop.

Accelerate did muster 14 juvenile winners, including one at stakes level, which is as much as could have been sensibly expected for a horse that himself required four sophomore starts to break his maiden in high summer. He then rolled on to win a stakes and the GII Los Alamitos Derby before finishing third in the GI Dirt Mile at the Breeders' Cup. Lest we forget, runner-up in that race was another sophomore who was only laying down foundations: horse name of Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Nobody should need reminding of the heights Accelerate achieved in his own maturity, winning five Grade Is at five. His only defeat that year? By a neck to none other than City Of Light, giving weight, the pair 10 lengths clear.

Accelerate laid down a perfect marker with his first sophomore runner, on New Year's Day at Laurel, where a filly making her fourth start broke her maiden easily over a bare six furlongs. That's a similar template to Winters Lion, who had run fifth, third and second in Churchill maidens before putting it all together to romp by 6 1/2 at Oaklawn in December. Anyone can see that all this is pure groundwork and breeders blessed with that rarest of commodities, patience, will recognize the value they're getting if their primary objective is to put a winner under their mare. (Which should, after all, be just about the most commercial thing anyone can do…)

Remember that Accelerate is out of an Awesome Again mare (representing the distaff gold of Deputy Minister) who also produced siblings, respectively, placed at Grade I and Grade III level, her own dam being a half-sister to a Grade I winner. (And the line traces to a fifth dam, Smartaire, whose son Smarten gave us the dam of Accelerate's grandsire Smart Strike.)

It's a dismal measure of the world we live in that Accelerate was retired at a fee as accessible as $20,000, lower than several horses he had left gasping in his wake-and that he has since taken three cuts in three years. What exactly are people after? This horse earned $6.7 million by dint of class, constitution and a physique prized at $380,000 as a yearling, despite his ostensibly uncommercial paternity. Bar a historic Triple Crown winner, Accelerate would have been a lock for Horse of the Year and I remain confident that he will, gradually and cumulatively, retrieve respect in his second career.

He actually has a very solid numerical base, with as many as 380 mares across his first three books. Given that his opening crops seem very likely to keep thriving with time, he could wind up with plenty of headlines overlapping in the coming years. As such, this feels like a very good moment to get ahead of the game with Accelerate. Sure, that suggestion might irritate those who suffered from the myopic treatment of his second crop at the sales. But someday people may look back at this horse, at this fee, as one of the great missed opportunities.

Oscar Performance | Sarah K. Andrew

GOLD: OSCAR PERFORMANCE (Kitten's Joy-Devine Actress by Theatrical {Ire})
$20,000 Mill Ridge
This guy will cost you a little more this time round-and so he jolly well should.

Most obviously, Oscar Performance has made an exemplary start on the track, with higher earnings per starter than any other top-10 freshman sire. From star managed to put him as high as eighth in the prize money table (slipstreaming Mendelssohn, with 90!) and featured not just 17 winners, a couple at black-type level, but also four placed in graded stakes company. These included a Grade II one-two when Andthewinneris beat Deer District at Keeneland in the fall.

We know, moreover, that these horses will keep building if they adhere to their sire's own template as a Grade I winner at two, three and four. And, crucially, even a commercial market so petrified of turf horses has managed to register his promise: bucking the usual trend, his second crop elevated their predecessors' yearling average from $43,149 to $57,474 (for a strong 38 sold of 44 offered).

But the real key for Oscar Performance is that he has emerged at an hour of need for the enlightened minority who actually want to connect the American bloodstock industry to huge racetrack opportunity on American grass.

Everyone knows how the turf program is expanding, and that a virtuous circle is underway between fully subscribed fields and purse money. And a lot of people, as a result, are investing heavily in elite European blood at sales over the water. On their own doorstep, however, they have now allowed both English Channel and Kitten's Joy to pass without ever having shown them anything like enough respect in the ring.

Now we have a blatant young talent emerging to blatant opportunity. There is generational room at the top, after the consecutive loss of his own sire, English Channel and Get Stormy. And here's a horse who had the brilliance to drop back from elite scores at 10 furlongs (Arlington Million/Belmont Derby) to make all in a Grade I mile; the soundness to bank $2.35 million across three seasons; and a pedigree that duplicates the same breed-changing alchemy top and bottom.

That's because his damsire is a son of Nureyev, who was by Northern Dancer out of the great Special (Forli {Arg}); while he extends the storied sire-line of Sadler's Wells, who was of course by Northern Dancer out of Special's daughter Fairy Bridge (Bold Reason). That may sound like way too much chlorophyll for a lot of Kentucky breeders, but I will never cease complaining about prescriptive, self-fulfilling assumptions about different bloodlines and different surfaces. Sure enough, Oscar Performance has already come up with Red Carpet Ready to win a dirt sprint by 10 lengths at Churchill on debut and then a 6.5f dirt stakes over the same track on her only other start.

Oscar Performance has been launched with unsurprising flair by a farm that once stood international influences in Diesis and Gone West. It's great to see them back in the stallion game, not least with so much “industrial” traffic cornered by the same few farms, and it's a typically thoughtful gesture-having trimmed him to $12,500 pending his first runners-to confine the increase in Oscar Performance's fee to $17,500 for those clients who had used him already.

The rest of us may have been less alert, but anyone can now see that Oscar Performance is on his way. He will surely rank high on the shortlists of European pinhookers as well. Roll out the red carpet!

The post Value Sires for ’23: Part V, First Sophomores appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires for ’23, Part IV: First Runners Due

No getting away from it, the young stallions we assess today have already completed their service to many breeders. They've processed a debut crop of yearlings, often on an industrial scale, and many have obliged with the kind of averages that vindicate the familiar, self-fulfilling commercial cycle that so favors new sires: demand generating supply, and the quality incidental to that increased supply in turn increasing demand.

That leaves us with another tricky podium. You can't just congratulate those who have “won” on this system, topping out the first-crop yearling averages. Because the ostensible losers, the ones with disappointing yields and sliding fees and books, have an imminent opportunity to show that they can produce horses that actually run. As such we have remained loyal to a couple of longstanding favorites.

Even for those that meet the initial challenge, it can be a ruthless system. If there's anything more ridiculous than the fidelity to unproven new sires it's the impatience with which most will be promptly abandoned. It's impressive, then, to see how some farms that deal unabashedly in volume are striving to prolong that brief window of opportunity. They might do so with incentive schemes, or by using their home herds, or with the precarious (but true) sales pitch that it's perseverance now-precisely when other breeders are backing nervously away from racetrack exposure-that would yield the biggest return with those sires that do actually elevate their reputation, once people can judge their stock not on a sales dais but out of a starting gate.

Those breeders subscribing to a fourth book this spring know that the resulting foals will enter yearling catalogues at a time when their sires have had a proper chance to show their wares. The first crop will have reached maturity; the second will have had their own crack at the Triple Crown; and a third crop of juveniles will meanwhile have launched. That's why maintaining the flow is so helpful: with a “loaded pipeline,” any stallion that does land running has a chance to keep his name in lights pending the production of foals delivered by the better mares arriving to pay a rising fee.

The farm that dominated this intake-recruiting its first, second and joint-third most expensive start-ups, as well as a cheaper one with outstanding commercial appeal-did so as a striking adaptation of its success with cheaper stallions that had been promoted by various pioneering incentives. Spendthrift could make this upgrade using more conventional, fee-based math. But other hallmarks of its dynamic program remained applicable. Knowing that turnover would be high, they could pitch even these better stallions at a relatively tempting fee; and the dividends duly achieved at the sales by many clients can now be played up, if so disposed, by returning to the same stallion at a reduced fee.

The system has been working smoothly, not only for Spendthrift but for others operating on a similar scale, with several of these stallions having maintained high turnover into third books last season; and largely vindicated, meanwhile, at the yearling sales. But now, in 2023, comes the crunch. We'll begin to find out whether the huge opportunity earned by these stallions will actually be seized by the cavalry of juveniles approaching the gate.

And who knows? We often see these prolific newcomers, with their hundreds of mares, overtaken by neglected rivals once the time comes for deeds, not words.

Bubbling Under:
Measured purely by their auction reception, this intake appears to have registered some pretty strong trends already. Certain sires will be launching their first runners with some conspicuous contrasts in the levels of market confidence behind them.

The big winners, it must be said, have largely worked the numbers game: the four highest averages by debutants at the yearling sales, in fact, were all achieved by the only four stallions that sent over 100 into the ring. To a degree, however, “that horse has bolted.” The quest for value, in the longer term, requires at least some attempt to swim against the tide. Yes, the top gun on our podium happens to be the top gun at the sales-but, as we'll see shortly, we feel he retains plenty of eligibility measured strictly in terms of value.

In the meantime, AUDIBLE certainly deserves a moment of congratulation. Yes, he's one of those that have assembled a staggering harem, starting with a book of 221 and since following through with 189 and 148. But while the sheer breadth of his catalogue footprint will obviously have resulted in a wide spectrum of vendor experiences, he has responded with plenty of headlines.

After reaching $103,813 with his first weanlings, he sold as many as 111 of the 123 offered as yearlings for an average $147,072. Almost inevitably, their progress was not quite so dramatic when measured by median, up to $110,000 from $87,000. But that does mean some major scores were celebrated (topped by a $725,000 colt at Keeneland September).

What's huge for this fellow, however, is that the weanlings offered from his second crop held up exceptionally well. He sold 18 of 22 offered at $96,277 ($87,500 median) and, after a mild clip to $22,500 last year, that has helped WinStar restore his opening fee of $25,000. Anyone with a stake in Audible will be feeling justifiably excited.

MAXIMUS MISCHIEF, another son of Into Mischief, we have long highlighted as too blatant a commercial play not to succeed. He duly received all the numbers that seemed inevitable and has proved equal to that turnover at the sales, advancing his $42,777 weanling average last year to $57,019 for 77 yearlings sold of 93 offered. He takes a break from the podium only because his weanling/yearling medians were essentially stagnant ($39,000/$40,000), while his second crop of weanlings slipped to an average of $25,000 for just 13 sold of 23.

Maximus Mischief | Spendthrift

His precocious profile almost guarantees some big pinhook scores in Florida next spring, however, and conceivably enough early momentum on the track to have a role in the freshman championship. That's certainly the way his supporters must be thinking, as he has followed opening books of 198 and 171 by receiving another 195 mares in his third year at Spendthrift-a pretty stunning vote of confidence. He remains virtually a bet to nothing at $7,500.

Another standing at the same fee, FLAMEAWAY, drew some attention at the yearling sales. Though a tier below the best of his crop, he has been given the volume necessary to recycle versatility and durability of an elite European family. The son of Scat Daddy corralled no fewer than 183 mares in his debut season at Darby Dan, and processed 66 of the 85 offered as yearlings for $49,340-doubling their weanling average of $25,720-including a $425,000 colt at Saratoga. He has maintained three-figure books over the past couple of years, so has every chance of consolidation if igniting on the racetrack from these sparks of commercial promise.

BRONZE: PRESERVATIONIST (Arch-Flying Dixie by Dixieland Band)
$10,000 Airdrie

If you liked this fellow at the outset-and I loved him-then why on earth would you leave precisely at the moment he can turn the dial in his favor?

As a rule, I feel nervous of sires with a major deficit between average and median in their first market testing. But that's more of an issue, to me, with overtly commercial sires trading huge books. The fact is that a horse with Preservationist's profile was never going to start out with consistent demand across the modern marketplace. He was always going to appeal to more far-sighted breeders, who recognized a precious genetic package at an affordable price; and who reckoned him eligible to put a winner under their mare, while hoping that his excellent physique might in the meantime yield the odd score in the sales ring.

And he got plenty of those. Prices like $280,000, $260,000 and $250,000 represented home runs that could only be envied by many who felt they had made a more commercial wager. (And remember that the colt he got into the first session of the September Sale, a rare distinction for a $10,000 rookie, had to be scratched.) Overall Preservationist averaged $40,542 for 47 yearlings sold of 59 offered.

Preservationist | Sarah Andrew

Predictably enough, his books dwindled through his second and third years but he did have a three-figure team to get him started and has obviously produced some pretty striking specimens among them. His own template might suggest that there is a long road to ride first, as he was six when he won his Grade I going two turns. But actually he had plenty of speed, breaking his maiden in 1:09.35. And, besides, anyone who rowed in with him will primarily have been excited that such regal lines–putting King Ranch matriarchs Courtly Dee and Too Chic opposite each other–should have combined to produce an animal of elite appearance ($485,000 yearling when his sire was standing for $30,000) and performance.

The four mares in his dam's third generation include Natalma, Weekend Surprise and Too Chic; and the dynasty (18 graded winners under first three dams!) has been freshly decorated by the emergence of Olympiad, who is out of a half-sister to Preservationist's dam. The latter was herself sadly lost after just two foals, and it's interesting to note that the other ran 46 times and stakes-placed at eight. We know that a son of Arch with his first two dams by Dixieland Band and A.P. Indy will put a lot of “run” into the sheer class of this pedigree. If he only has a fleeting commercial opportunity, at least to start with, here's a horse equipped to draw every last ounce of merit from your mare.

It just feels very auspicious that Preservationist should have produced several yearlings with serious commercial appeal. The bottom line is that no horse in this intake would surprise me less, if happening to turn up a Kentucky Derby winner-and that's not the way he is priced.

SILVER: WORLD OF TROUBLE (Kantharos-Meets Expectations by Valid Expectations)
$5,000 Hill 'n' Dale

I know, I know. This is beyond bold. Because this horse feels aptly named right now. His third book dwindled to 27, and he's now standing at one-third of his opening fee. And there's an obvious reason why. Let's put a name to the elephant in the room: Jason Servis. This was an ex-claimer elevated to stardom by a man facing jail for a doping program.

But let's do something that sets us apart from that person, and try to show some respect to the horse. Sharp Azteca, after all, was trained by another confessed villain in Jorge Navarro-but demonstrably has the genetic merit, whatever suspicions people may have nursed, to have sired more individual winners this year than any other freshman.

World of Trouble, remember, flaunted a ton of natural ability for another trainer before joining Servis, winning by 14 lengths on debut and then beaten half a length in a stakes race, miles clear of the rest, despite bumping the rail. Whatever else may (or may not) have been assisting him later on, moreover, it takes unusual and inherent flair to switch from dirt to turf as indifferently as did World of Trouble when posting his big numbers in the GI Carter H. and GI Jaipur Inv.

So, whatever fears or suspicions people may have, this was an uncommon horse in his own right. And I just feel that he perhaps deserves a second chance after an intriguing market debut, given the reservations that will have been nursed–rightly or wrongly–by many investors.

On the face of it, an average $40,756 for 46 yearlings sold of 56 offered was no more than solid. Of this whole intake, however, no other sire achieved a median ($37,000) so close to his average. Where a lot of his peers were boosting their averages with a handful of home runs from some pretty enormous books, World of Trouble was looking after the people who had used him in a far more consistent way.

A ceiling of $170,000 might be relatively unspectacular, but even that is hugely creditable in such difficult circumstances. And, by giving his stock a platform to demonstrate whether or not they can actually run, one or two pinhookers may end up banking a major dividend from that kind of base come the 2-year-old sales.

Remember that World of Trouble was bred to be very fast. His dam is a Valid Expectations half-sister to prolific sprinter Bucchero-himself, of course, by World of Trouble's sire Kantharos.

World of Trouble | Horsephotos

Look, I don't know. But nor do any of us. I feel sorry for the horse and for any who, having acted in good faith, now find themselves facing steep odds-whether the excellent farm that stands him, or its clients. And the fact is that people obviously liked his stock well enough, perhaps almost despite themselves.

Just imagine if it turns out that everyone has been doing World of Trouble an injustice, and he proves able to throw that speed as a natural genetic inheritance? It's not impossible, and the gamble can now be tried at very small stakes.

GOLD: OMAHA BEACH (War Front-Charming by Seeking The Gold)
$30,000 Spendthrift

All they have to do now is show that they can run. Because if a stallion's career were confined only to a market launch-and that, of course, is precisely how many breeders view things-then this fellow would be quite a paragon.

It might seem pointless, to highlight the guy with the top fee and (by a street) top average of this class. But we've had him on the podium throughout, purely as a value call, and he can only ascend to the top step now that he has delivered in such spectacular fashion at the sales-even as he has taken repeated cuts in fee.

Omaha Beach has proved an ideal vehicle for this particular system: a tempting fee based on high volume; a good yield, as a result, for very many breeders (if obviously not all); in turn incentivizing repeat custom at a diminished fee; and so opening a new cycle.

We liked him even at $45,000, so how could we resist at $35,000 and then $30,000? He was still the same package, a brilliant speed-carrying grandson of Danzig from a celebrated family. And all that has happened in the meantime is that his stock has passed its first auction test with flying colors.

What we especially like is that his excellent weanling returns last year have turned out just to be a base for giddy additional gains: he advanced his $112,736 weanling average ($95,000 median) to $201,689 for 81 yearlings sold of 105 offered ($160,000 median). That's some collective “pinhook”! If these horses are impressing ever more, as they mature, then that has to augur well for the 2-year-old sales next spring-and also, naturally, for their introduction to what is supposed to be their real purpose in life.

Of course, a third consecutive book of over 200 can only work if he now delivers in that way, too. But if he does, this will potentially be the last opportunity to remain ahead of the value curve. As noted above, Audible has also done everything his supporters could have hoped, to this point. But he will cost you $25,000, just as he did at the outset, whereas Omaha Beach will now require only an extra $5,000, instead of an extra $20,000.

By no means all of us feel comfortable with the industrial model that has developed both horses, but they have shown how it can function at its most efficient. And, having started out at the higher fee, Omaha Beach will presumably have received superior mares, too: quality, in other words, to match the quantity.

This time next year, will he have produced the flagship horses to start moving his fee back up? That's the next gamble, but this horse obviously has a lot of believers. And, if you do believe, now is the time to double down.

The post Value Sires for ’23, Part IV: First Runners Due appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires For 2023 – Part II: First Foals Due

The group we consider today for now retains a convenient gloss, still in the happy position of offering “all talk, no action.” But they will actually have got as far as delivering their first flesh-and-bone foals into the straw by the time they start receiving their second book of mares. And many of the people who exploited their novelty value last year will automatically have moved on to the next intake of rookies, rather than expose themselves to the peril that the market won't like a debut crop. Foals conceived by these stallions in 2023 will go to yearling sales at a time when their first juveniles have begun to dip a toe into the racetrack water, and the “wait-and-see” bubble in a stallion's career nowadays comes earlier than ever.

We know that far too many foals are brought into the world to do no more than stand gleaming on a dais for two minutes. Farms have duly had to devise all manner of incentive schemes to keep their young guns in the game long enough to show what their maturing stock can actually do on a racetrack. Whether through loyalty incentives or the support of a home herd, then, the biggest debut books of 2022 will typically be followed by the biggest second books of 2023.

Independence Hall, Rock Your World, Charlatan and Yaupon respectively covered 202, 219, 222 and a staggering 242 mares this spring, Yaupon busier than any sire in the land bar Gun Runner himself. Everyone who used these stallions will understand that there will be no shortage of competition in the 2023 weanling and 2024 yearling catalogues. But they will be comforted that Mendelssohn and Justify, launched with 252 mares apiece in 2019, both obliged with the necessary commercial performance when their first yearlings reached the ring.

The fact is that ringside investors tend to do much as they are told, in the sense that yearling averages for new sires tend to mirror the sequence of their fees pretty slavishly. When you have such huge samples, admittedly, those averages will inevitably embrace a wide spectrum of triumph and disaster. But that's simply the nature of horse business. I reckon that if you're in for a cent, you might as well stay in for a dollar. If you bred to a new stallion last year because you actually believe in his inherent merit, and not just in the robotic reliability of new sires at the sales ring… then stick with the program!

On which basis, there are limited grounds for altering the medals we awarded to freshmen last year. Certainly you know to back away with a polite smile if ever somebody starts bragging about covering sire averages, which are almost wholly incidental to the quality of those mares randomly offered for sale. Fees, too, almost invariably remain stable at this point. But there is one new factor in play, and that's the traction or otherwise implied by opening books. And that has caused some revision in our pecking order.

Bubbling Under

Honestly, the horse to stop, once those babies start sending purse money into the freshman's table, probably has to be CHARLATAN. A handsome and brilliant animal with a great shape to his pedigree, he will have matched all that quantity with plenty of quality in his first book–and that is just what you want to hear at $50,000. But we'll try to find him some competition at somewhat lesser cost.

While the size of Yaupon's first book will doubtless divide opinion, you have to respect what the sheer demand says about him, not least as a physical specimen. But if you have to settle for a cheaper son of Uncle Mo, how about one whose debut book of 142 also promises perfectly healthy racetrack opportunity? Because MODERNIST channels a lot of pedigree for $10,000 at Darby Dan. Anything out of a Bernardini mare gives you hope: a Bernardini half-sister to Breeders' Cup winners Sweet Catomine (Storm Cat) and Life Is Sweet (Strom Cat) might give you something nearer confidence. Modernist was obviously a tier below the best of his generation but showed enough to suggest these genes had due functionality, and he has a physique of real charisma.

At the same fee, KNOWN AGENDA was made pick of this intake last year and I do retain every faith in his eligibility. Hopefully others will do the same, because he does require a little imagination: he showed his true caliber only fairly briefly, when transformed by blinkers coming into the GI Florida Derby; and he also has an unfamiliar European family to contend with, though in its detail this should actually be viewed as a major asset by any who actually want to breed a runner.

Known Agenda did muster 166 mares at Spendthrift, albeit that is hardly exceptional at a farm with a portcullis that descends quite slowly! I remain confident that he will produce plenty of winners from what should, in a sane world, be considered lavish numbers. Pending the commercial cycles he must negotiate in the meantime, however, for now he narrowly yields his place on the podium after a couple of rivals, based at farms known for their relative restraint, rather surprisingly shadowed or even exceeded his opening book.

BRONZE:
BEAU LIAM (Liam's Map–Belle of Perintown by Dehere)
$6,000 Airdrie

By the standards of his farm, which prizes old-school virtues, this guy looked a candid commercial play: a bright but brief meteor across the speed-figures firmament. And, lo, they have been knocked over in the rush! So much so, that he was permitted as many as 162 mares, an extravagance that made him the busiest gentleman on their roster.

And, to be fair, at this kind of price he's a bet to virtually nothing for breeders who have seen Maclean's Music build so impressively on a foundation as narrow as a single, clock-melting start. Beau Liam, in comparison, was a grizzled veteran! He twice corroborated his blazing speed after becoming the fastest 6f maiden winner (by seven and a half lengths) recorded at no less a venue than Churchill Downs, by then posting Beyers of 106 and 107 in sprints at Saratoga.

He was then turned over at odds-on for his graded stakes debut and disappeared for good, but there's obviously going to be a sequel judged from the way breeders responded to the rest of the package–which is actually backed up by a highly plausible pedigree.

His dam is an eight-length GII Silverbulletday S. winner by Dehere, who has somewhat emulated his own sire's distaff influence (notably as damsire of City Of Light); and she has additionally produced three stakes and/or graded stakes performers and/or producers. And her own granddam was Grade I winner/Kentucky Oaks runner-up Jeanne Jones (Nijinsky), a half-sister to Avenue Of Flags (Seattle Slew).

With those genes and now those numbers behind him–not just the speed figures, but a book absolutely bursting at the seams–Beau Liam could well have an impact on the freshman table way above his opening fee. Those who get involved now, then, may very well find themselves ahead of the game.

SILVER:
TACITUS (Tapit–Close Hatches by First Defence)
$10,000 Taylor Made

Good things afoot at this farm, with Not This Time leading the way but a well-bred newcomer joining the roster in Idol plus two of the most promising of the previous intake in Knicks Go and Tacitus.

Knicks Go was obviously the more accomplished racehorse of that pair but while a very realistic fee made full allowance for his less glamorous pedigree, it was the royally-bred Tacitus who proved in greater demand when pitched at no less tempting a level. Tacitus covered no fewer than 188 mares, 37 more than Knicks Go, making it clear that breeders were willing to set aside the contrasting curves in their respective racetrack careers.

Tacitus actually won only one of his final dozen starts, when outclassing overmatched rivals in the GII Suburban S., but that did scant justice to the raw ability that had launched him into the GI Kentucky Derby via the GII Tampa Bay Derby (stakes record) and GII Wood Memorial. He had a wide trip in both Triple Crown starts, third (promoted) at Churchill and second at Belmont, but it's not as though he accumulated only excuses thereafter–as a final bank of nearly $3.8 million will attest.

But the key is that his palpable eligibility for the best company, regardless of occasional flaws in execution, was founded in one of the best pedigrees in the book. Curated through its last three generations by Juddmonte, who sent champion Close Hatches to Tapit for her first cover, it traces to the matriarch Best In Show (Traffic Judge) as fifth dam.

An adjacent branch has produced recent Irish Classic winner Siskin, who shares a sire with Close Hatches and is now at stud in Japan. That fortifies the depth we like to see in the third and fourth generations, here saturated with celebrated mares whose genetic potency is corroborated beyond this particular pedigree.

Breeders were invited to roll the dice at this fee and their response gives Tacitus every chance of demonstrating his competence as a conduit for these priceless genes. Grade I ability, Grade I pedigree, at barely a Grade III price.

GOLD:
SILVER STATE (Hard Spun–Supreme by Empire Maker)
$20,000 Claiborne

Woah, what's going on here? A rookie stallion entertaining 171 mares at Claiborne?

We trust that this startling number doesn't mean that the commercial tide is beginning to encroach even this farm, whose clients have long been blessed by that precarious blend: a fair opening fee, without swamping the marketplace. It's always good to have a spectrum of different models to help breeders make their decisions. At the same time, we all trade in a tough environment and everyone must be indulged a degree of pragmatism. After all, we have just elevated a similar outlier, Beau Liam, to this podium for another farm known for its restraint.

Regardless, the one thing we can safely take from this debut–by way of comparison, the previous year War Of Will had been as heavily subscribed as any Claiborne newcomer with a full book of 143–is that there must have been pretty ferocious demand for Silver State. Nor is his book just about quantity. Of 153 mares in foal, Claiborne report 24 to be stakes winners and 30 dams of stakes winners.

And it's not hard to see why this should be. Silver State matured into a very good racehorse, crowning a six-race streak with success in that luminous stallion signpost, the GI Met Mile, but is entitled to do better yet in his second career. That's because his pedigree combines Darby Dan royalty top and bottom, tied together by Roberto as sire of Hard Spun's third dam, a half-sister to Little Current; and also of Silver State's fourth dam, who was out of a half-sister to the dam of Dynaformer. Closer up, Silver State's graded stakes-placed dam is out of a sister to Monarchos.

So there's a ton of wholesome seeding behind this horse, quite apart from his outstanding appeal as a short cut to the attenuating influence of Danzig, who of course stood here himself. Hard Spun, a nugget of value in his own right, is the youngest custodian of his sire's legacy in North America, the line having meanwhile become a breed-changing power in Europe and indeed Australia.

All the Classic branding in Silver State's pedigree, moreover, boiled down into plenty of commercial speed–this is the author of five triple-digit Beyers, remember, who launched his big spree with a seven-length romp in a sprint–and he is a thing of beauty. As a $450,000 yearling, he was the fourth most expensive Hard Spun of his crop but has since matured into his big frame as a real prince. He's 16.3 but so buoyant and smooth that you would barely know it.

The silver medal was too obvious a magnet for a horse bearing this name last year, but in the circumstances it feels imperative to move him up a step. If his first book has a surprisingly modern size, the horse himself is a throwback–from his pedigree, to that invincible sequence wrought from resilience as well as class–and he feels a beautiful fit at his grandsire's home farm.

Here, in short, is a silver mine where breeders can strike gold.

The Value Podium: First Foals Due

Gold: SILVER STATE $20,000 Claiborne
Old-school merit has caused a stampede at his grandsire's farm

Silver: TACITUS $10,000 TaylorMade
Due reward after regal genes were offered at tempting fee

Bronze: BEAU LIAM $6,000 Airdrie
Speedball has been very quick to snowball

The post Value Sires For 2023 – Part II: First Foals Due appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires For 2023 – Part I: New Stallions

Welcome to our annual assessment of Bluegrass sire prospects for the approaching covering season. As last year, we're going to confine our focus largely to a “Value Podium” for each intake–rather than attempt, as in the past, an exhaustive (not to say exhausting) assessment of every stallion in the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

Believe me, it wasn't always easy to find something adequately civil to say about every last one! But the fact is that this is only ever one person's opinion and, as such, a hopelessly subjective exercise. By restricting ourselves to three medalists, after a few general remarks and an honorable mention for a near-miss or two, we know that those overlooked–necessarily a large majority–are bound to include many sires who ultimately get their headlines where it really counts. (So we hope that nobody perceives any kind of slight that would not only be unintended but basically invisible!)

Every mating is different, after all. Your mare may be the wrong size or shape for the stallions we like; and, besides, we all know that a choice of mate must, for many people, be more about anticipating the market than anticipating genetic efficacy. The latter, sadly, tends to be rather a luxury when you require a stallion, first and foremost, to put bread on your table.

That's especially true, of course, regarding the group we start with today. The asphyxiating commercial window of opportunity for sires is unfair on everybody: on the stallions themselves, on the farms that stand them, and on the commercial breeders who feel they have no choice but to jump onto the next round of the freshman carousel. As we're always saying, the fault does not rest with the supply but with the demand.

Those directing investment at ringside claim that their only chance of landing on a top-class cover is to be ahead of the curve, before fees catapult beyond affordability. But we know that simply isn't true. For one thing, they hardly ever follow young stallions through as their fees and averages come down, pending a meaningful examination of their stock on the racetrack. And how many agents and managers, moreover, have sufficient courage of their convictions to buy their clients the stock of an apparently unfashionable stallion like Lookin At Lucky, for instance? Yet his record of achievement, punching miles above his fee, will remain far beyond the vast majority of those rookies annually launched with huge books at what will usually turn out to be a career-high fee.

We'll see whether a place can still be found for him at the other end of the spectrum, once we come to proven sires. But it's a sad state of affairs when hardly anyone today accepts the logic that there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare.

Flightline | Sara Gordon

Regardless, today we start with a uniformly clean slate. To reiterate: we're not looking for the new stallion “most likely.” Of course, we send our compliments to anyone who can afford $200,000 to tap into the most blatant racetrack talent seen in a while. True, value is relative. Flightline (Tapit) himself, after all, was a seven-figure yearling who turned out to be cheap. Nothing automatically disqualifies the highest fee of the intake from being its best value. Perhaps Flightline will do a Frankel (GB), and become every bit as important an influence as his track career encourages you to hope–albeit to do that, obviously, his stock will have to move on from a template of six starts across three years in training.

Each to their own. Acknowledging that objectivity must be limited to the spirit of inquiry, and that subjectivity must kick in with the first breath of an answer, let's begin our quest for the most horse for your buck. And if we do happen to turn up another Not This Time to top the podium, we accept that it will again be more by luck than judgement!

Bubbling Under

The overall quality of the intake feels strong, perhaps the strongest in a few years. If one generational talent bestrides the cohort, there are several following him into a second career absolutely entitled to close the current gap in their stature.

I also feel that a number of farms have risen to the challenge laid down in recent years by the Spendthrift team, who have expertly converted the momentum of their pioneering incentive schemes to upgrade their recruitment. There must have been times when the opposition felt as though they were being left irretrievably behind. But while Spendthrift welcomes another four newcomers for 2023, the fresh blood at several farms will reassure breeders that the Bluegrass retains a healthy depth of competition.

Ashford, most conspicuously, has assembled as many as five new sires all of sufficient standard to be starting out between $25,000 and $45,000. Our pick of those will duly be found on the podium, but we must also acknowledge the sheer solidity offered by Epicenter (Not This Time). His brilliance is underpinned by some extremely sturdy European influences, such that he really offers something really quite different, and precious, to the American gene pool.

Gainesway, meanwhile, has looked to the future, with the great Tapit in the evening his career, offering a couple of contrasting but attractive new packages in Olympiad (Speightstown) and Drain The Clock (Maclean's Music). Really, there are quite a few farms that can take their new guys to market with deserved confidence. Strictly in terms of value, however, I feel that none has stepped up to the plate better than Airdrie.

With the emerging star Girvin arriving from Florida, the Airdrie team have added further momentum by pricing both their rookies to give their clients every chance.

The one who narrowly misses the podium is Highly Motivated, a can't-miss $7,500 son of Into Mischief with two track records to his name. A horse with this kind of profile, at this kind of price, would at some farms assuredly be loaded with over 200 mares. But that's not the Airdrie way–and those who can get to him are unlikely, therefore, to find themselves inundated by alternative stock once they get into a catalogue.

Highly Motivated was classy enough to run Essential Quality (Tapit) to a neck when stretching out for the GII Blue Grass S., but his unmistakable forte was Into Mischief speed, showcased by a 96 Beyer eclipsed only by Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) among the juveniles of 2020. That secured Highly Motivated a Keeneland track record, while the one he added as a 4-year-old at Monmouth was wrested, after 37 years, from a Horse of the Year. His name was Spend A Buck, and that sounds like a pretty good plan with Highly Motivated.

BRONZE:

GREATEST HONOUR (Tapit-Tiffany's Honour by Street Cry {Ire})

$7,500 Spendthrift

Greatest Honour wins the Fountain of Youth | Horsephotos

No denying that this guy's derailment from the 2021 Derby trail was made to seem a long time ago when he resurfaced to rather tame effect this spring. But his fee makes ample allowance for that, and if you just rewind to the unmistakable brilliance of his original emergence, then you can only be excited to have cut-price access to such a regal bloodline.

Second and fourth dams are both Broodmares of the Year, divided by a GI Kentucky Oaks winner, with the family seeded by distaff influences of corresponding stature: Street Cry (Ire), Deputy Minister and Blushing Groom (Fr). Greatest Honour's dam was admittedly one of the least distinguished runners in this family, but she's a half-sister to Rags To Riches (A.P. Indy), Jazil (Seeking The Gold) and Casino Drive (Mineshaft) (a successful freshman sire in Japan, by the way) out of the broodmare icon Better Than Honour.

And there was no doubting that this blood had told when Greatest Honour was a flourishing sophomore in Florida. Even his juvenile grounding had been of exceptional substance: he took four starts to break his maiden, but was learning his trade by consecutive bouts with Olympiad (Speightstown), Speaker's Corner (Street Sense) and Known Agenda (Curlin)! Sure enough, when he did win a maiden, it was by beating subsequent Grade II winner Dynamic One (Union Rags).

So he was scarcely raised in grade when romping in the GIII Holy Bull S.; and he then overwhelmed Drain The Clock (Maclean's Music) in the GII Fountain of Youth S. And while the speed figures measured up, the way he appeared to be hitting his stride only deep in the stretch made him look like a horse just getting started. I was stunned that he did not follow through in the GI Florida Derby, but he disappeared for a year and then never really retrieved the thread.

But I am definitely keeping the faith, at this price. After all, the template isn't dissimilar from his sire, who started out at a lower fee than anticipated after fulfilment of his potential had likewise been thwarted by physical issues.

Above all, Greatest Honour passes the ultimate test of pedigree depth. His fourth generation is saturated with genetic potentates (Weekend Surprise, Narrate, Moon Glitter, Coup De Folie, Best In Show) corroborated far more widely than simply by those sons or daughters that happen to put them on this particular page.

This aristocratic blood, harnessed to Spendthrift's dynamic commercial program, will presumably benefit from plenty of opportunity. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that were to result in one or two candidates to redress his own misfortune on the road to the Derby–and you can't say that of too many stallions at this kind of fee.

SILVER:

EARLY VOTING (Gun Runner-Amour d'Ete by Tiznow)

$25,000 Ashford

Early Voting (right) wins the G1 Preakness S. | Mathea Kelley

Hats off to the Klaravich program, which missed the podium by a cigarette paper with Highly Motivated while also reaching its second step with this fellow, in our view the outstanding value among Ashford's exciting new quintet.

The three Ps–physique, pedigree, performance–are all lavishly present and correct.

This is a knockout specimen and, while Gun Runner will become still more extraordinary if also proving an instant hit as sire of sires, the family tree brings its own guarantees in that regard. For Early Voting's dam is, of course, a sibling to one such in Speightstown (as well as to the very talented but ill-starred Irap).

Performance, admittedly, was vexingly confined to just half a dozen starts. But Early Voting followed up his debut success with a daylight score in the GIII Withers S. before being collared by a neck, in a duel of future Classic winners with Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), in the GII Wood Memorial. He confirmed his place among the elite of his generation when holding off Epicenter (Not This Time) in the GI Preakness, only for his career to derail in Saratoga.

Sure, he was a fresher horse at Pimlico than his new studmate; and he also got first run. But Early Voting was arguably only in a position to do that by superior early speed and, regardless of which side of the quibbling fence you fall, they were plainly in the same vicinity in terms of talent. And the relative durability of Epicenter is amply measured by the difference in their fees.

In this slightly more accessible tier, you seldom find such quality through so many dimensions: looks, natural ability (won a Classic, remember, off three starts) and genes. What worked for Speightstown (first three dams by Storm Cat, Chieftain and Buckpasser) has obviously worked for his sister, too. She is of course by a deeper staying influence (Tiznow, as against Gone West) but Gun Runner has done his stuff to produce a very alert runner. Gun Runner himself, remember, is out of a Giant's Causeway mare, which not only doubles up Storm Cat but entwines his influence with that of his nemesis Tiznow.

These are all very wholesome brands, and just look at the four mares in Early Voting's third generation. Without exception, they've shown that there is more than one string to their genetic bow. From the top: Candy Girl (Arg) (Candy Stripes) is here as dam of Candy Ride (Arg), but is also third dam of Tom's D'Etat; Quiet Dance (Quiet American) is here as granddam of Gun Runner, but is also dam of Saint Liam; Tiznow's dam Cee's Song (Seattle Song) famously produced not just classy performers like Budroyale but also the dams of Paynter and Oxbow; and Silken Doll (Chieftain), as we've already seen, unites Speightstown and Irap as well Early Voting.

That's a pretty copper-bottomed array of repeatable genetic excellence and, combined with the physical and performance attributes he has placed in the foreground, makes me confident of this horse's eligibility to last the course.

GOLD:

HAPPY SAVER (Super Saver-Happy Week by Distorted Humor)

$12,500, Airdrie

If you don't give this horse a shot, at this kind of money, then I guess you don't really buy into the only principles that ever make sense of this chaotic industry of ours.

Okay, so he was not quite a champion. But only an elite talent, and a very natural one, could win the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup as an unbeaten 3-year-old making just his fourth start; and only a matching resilience could maintain him in maturity as benchmark, in three consecutive races earlier this year, for Olympiad (Speightstown), Flightline (Tapit) and Life Is Good (Into Mischief).

That trio, needless to say, are all starting out at much bigger fees. Maxfield (Street Sense), similarly, stands at $40,000 after being pushed all the way by Happy Saver in the GI Clark S. last year. But now they all resume with a clean slate and, in terms of his eligibility to prove a conduit of genetic quality, none is in a stronger position than Happy Saver. His third dam is Weekend Surprise herself; and standing directly opposite her, as damsire of Super Saver, is her son A.P. Indy.

Super Saver will concern some people, despite Runhappy and Letruska, but the key here is that he has produced a very good racehorse by combining one spectacular maternal line with another. His own extends through generations of Ogden Phipps bluebloods; and obviously Happy Saver's dam, herself a stakes sprinter, belongs to a family that has famously produced several other stallions besides A.P. Indy.

Sure enough, the pedigree overall is heavily seeded with the right brands. For instance, Super Saver's grandsire Wavering Monarch was out of a Buckpasser mare; Super Saver's celebrated fourth dam, Numbered Account, was by Buckpasser; and so, too, was Weekend Surprise's mother Lassie Dear. That's typical of what happens when families extend their quality back to the days of much smaller books. Access to a top-class stallion was a privilege, earned by blood or performance or both. The mares behind Happy Saver, as celebrities in their own right, have corresponding consorts: after his mother by Distorted Humor, the next four dams are by all-time distaff legends in Deputy Minister, Secretariat, Buckpasser and Sir Gaylord.

The quest for value in stallions is about seeking the potential to punch above their presumed weight. If stallions couldn't sometimes produce foals better than themselves, the breed would stagnate at best and mostly decline. And a stallion's ability to elevate his potency, relative to his track career, must lurk in his blood. Yes, you want to see evidence on the track of a functional vitality in his genetic make-up. Happy Saver gave us that in spades. But he has every right to surpass even that exalted standard in his next career.

Like many horses going to stud, for one or two reasons we didn't see his very best as he closed out. But he had previously been a set-your-clock campaigner at the highest level, moreover one blessed with real flair. If you rewind to the very beginning, for instance, he won a sprint on by 5 1/2 lengths on debut in essentially the same time as the GI Woody Stephens S. winner on the same card.

This, in other words, is a horse whose stock can someday make us grateful that “Happy” days are here again.

The Value Podium: New Sires

Gold: HAPPY SAVER Airdrie $12,500

An elite competitor with aristocratic pedigree at an accessible fee

Silver: EARLY VOTING Ashford $25,000

A pacey Classic winner out of Speightstown's half-sister

Bronze: GREATEST HONOUR Spendthrift $7,500

Another of royal blood and made a lasting impression early

The post Value Sires For 2023 – Part I: New Stallions appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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