2023 Mating Plans, Presented by Spendthrift: Machmer Hall

As we approach the opening of the 2023 breeding season, the TDN staff is once again sitting down with leading breeders to find out what stallions they have chosen for their mares, and why. Today we spoke with Carrie Brogden at Machmer Hall.

We mate by physical mostly–negative traits to positive traits and vice versa. We try to add speed where there is none and we do not believe in like-to-like matings. We do not use nicks, but we do like successful crosses like Twirling Candy with Unbridled's Song. This is a sample of our matings planned for our 82 foaling mares and 32 maiden and barren mares.

 

ASTRAY (m, 9, Bernardini – Away, by Dixieland Band) to be bred to Life Is Good

This young stakes producer's Into Mischief filly sold for $720,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale. She is about the prettiest Bernardini mare you will ever see. I am a big fan of her pedigree and we currently own her niece, too!

She is currently in foal to Hard Spun and we figured that now that we have bred her to several proven stallions, we could revert back to a first-year. She is booked to Life Is Good for 2023.  Life Is Good is an absolute stunner and has a heart the size of Texas.

BECCA'S ROCKET (m, 5, Orb – Idoitmyway, by Unbridled's Song) to be bred to Jackie's Warrior

Becca's Rocket was one of the prettiest and fanciest yearlings we had the year we sold her even though her sire was fast falling out of favor. I watched her hit the board in 13 of her 20 starts, including multiple stakes, and she won over $250,000. We bought her back privately as a broodmare prospect to rejoin Machmer Hall as a broodmare.

For her first foal she is booked to the super good-looking, super talented horse Jackie's Warrior. As Mark Toothaker said to me when I sent her over, “Well, this is a no brainer.” And that is exactly how I felt!

CAMPAIGNING (m, 4, Nyquist – Azalea Belle, Dixie Union) to be bred to Upstart

We bought this Nyquist filly carrying her first foal by Classic Empire at the 2022 Keeneland November Sale. She was a $500,000 yearling herself, so her looks match her sales price.

Since she is only a half-sister to a stakes-placed filly [GIII Iowa Oaks runner-up Aurelia Garland (Constitution)], but she has a nice family, we wanted to be mindful of the stud fee we put in her. She is booked back to Upstart, who only had 19 named 2-year-olds for 2022 and STILL held his own big time. We are thinking that with his bigger and better crops coming down the pipeline, he seems like great value to start a young mare off right.

Heidi Maria, the dam of last year's GII Sorrento S. winner Vegas Magic, will go back to Good Magic in 2023 | Benoit

CLAIRE'S SONG (m, 15, Unbridled's Song – Chimichurri, by Elusive Quality) to be bred to Medaglia d'Oro

Claire's Song is currently in foal to Essential Quality and we have booked her back to Medaglia d'Oro for 2023. We sold her Medaglia d'Oro colt in Saratoga for $625,000 last year and the yearling full-sister is just as nice of a physical as he was. It's hard to not go back to him with this three-time stakes-producing Unbridled's Song mare considering her half-sister produced Canadian Horse of the Year Wonder Gadot and Grade II-placed Solemn Tribute, both by Medaglia d'Oro.

DISTURBINGLY HOT (m, 17, Unbridled's Song – Diablo's Blend, by Diablo) to be bred to Sharp Azteca

Disturbingly Hot is currently in foal to Kantharos and is booked back to Sharp Azteca. We were lucky enough to be his yearling consignor, so I knew what a gorgeous horse he was at that point in his life. We took a breeding right from that faith and honestly I think he has shocked everyone. He was a very fast horse and his progeny seem to be good minded and sound, much like him!

FISCAL LITERACY (m, 4, Uncle Mo – City Sister, by Carson City) to be bred to Twirling Candy

Fiscal Literacy is currently in foal to Maxfield, who is just a ten physical. With a first dam that fills an entire page of horses that run and sell great, we bought this mare as a yearling with some significant vetting issues eyeing to keep her as a broodmare.

If there are two sires that have made Machmer Hall, one would be Twirling Candy (the other is Into Mischief), so we booked this big, fancy girl back to Twirling Candy. She has strong hocks like he needs and we love the idea of alternating between proven and unproven stallions in these types of mares. We hope it will turn out for the long run.

HEIDI MARIA (m, 15, Rockport Harbor – Third Street, by Salt Lake) to be bred to Good Magic

Heidi Maria is a stakes winner that we bred and sold as a yearling only to buy her back privately as a broodmare prospect. She is currently in foal to Collected, who just had a lovely first-time starter [Cuvier] of Pletcher's win at Gulfstream Park that we bred, so fingers crossed! She is the dam of Good Magic's Grade II-winning filly Vegas Magic, so it only made sense to book her back to this exciting son of Curlin.

LADY BELLAMY (m, 9, Bellamy Road – Hot Spell, by Salt Lake) to be bred to Aloha West

We bought this mare in foal to Good Magic along with her West Coast colt at foot in 2020. She is currently in foal to Tiz the Law, who I am a HUGE fan of and am taking a punt on him throwing the talent he had by his brilliant sire Constitution.

This mare has a Gift Box yearling (we have 5 yearlings by our homebred stallion) and we have booked her back to GI Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Aloha West. Aloha West is a very pretty, mid-sized horse. He's light on his feet and correct. Lady Bellamy is a massive mare with bone like tree trunks.

I am hearing great reports about her Good Magic colt with Boomer Bloodstock, so hopefully by the time he runs we will have a lovely Aloha West! This is the first mare owned in partnership with some of our best friends who have never had a Thoroughbred. So far she has had great luck!

LAID BACK LADY (m, 11, Hold Me Back – Sheena's Gold, by Fast Gold) to be bred to Early Voting

Laid Back Lady is currently in foal to Twirling Candy. The only reason we own this mare is because I bought her from a client who had to liquidate his entire broodmare band due to a family illness. and we took her over. We did the mating on her first foal who she was in foal to when we acquired her and that Twirling Candy filly, Always At Ease, just became stakes placed in California–just missing the stakes win!

She is booked back to Early Voting, a first-year stallion and the Grade I-winning son of emerging supersire Gun Runner.

LADY FALCON (m, 5, Super Saver – Sluice, by Seeking the Gold) to be bred to Epicenter

We just purchased this mare in November in foal to her second baby by Practical Joke. I am a huge fan of her family. I have drooled over the progeny of her dam, Sluice, and her half-sister, Mushka (Empire Maker), over the years. She's a big, coarse, plain mare with a lot of substance and she has my favorite thing from her female family–that walk!

We booked her to first-year sire Epicenter, a Grade I-winning son of Not this Time. She will have two proven-sire foals ahead, so we like to change it up with a new sire.

LAYREEBELLE (m, 17, Tale of the Cat – Voodoo Lily, by Baldski) to be bred to Jack Christopher

Layreebelle is currently in foal to one of the greatest values of our time in my mind, Candy Ride (Arg). She is the dam of two graded stakes winners and her daughter is also a graded stakes producer. She is a Machmer Hall homebred and was named after my children (Layne- Reece- Isabelle). She has been so good to us since she injured her shoulder in a paddock accident as a yearling.

Her dam, Voodoo Lily, died of old age after being a retired baby sitter on our farm for many years. She was the grandmother of up-and-coming sire Justify. I am hearing great reports of Layreebelle's Into Mischief 2-year-old colt who is down in Ocala after selling at the Saratoga Sale to Bradley Thoroughbreds.

We have exclusively bred this mare to proven sires her entire life and since we have now retained one of her daughters, who is booked to Tapit for her first foal, we decided to take a shot on a first-year stallion with Jack Christopher, who was bought by one of my favorite people in the industry and a great judge, Liz Crow.

Special Me's daughter and future Grade I winner Gina Romantica practicing her conformation pose as a yearling | courtesy Carrie Brogden

LINE OF VISION (m, 8, Court Vision – Gold Lined, by Numerous) to be bred to Bolt d'Oro

Line of Vision is a small-but-mighty stakes winner by Court Vision. We ended up having so many big mares with our Unbridled's Song crew that we added a few of the 15'1 to 15'2 types this year. We got them for good value because they could really run but did not have the height a lot of buyers want.

We bought this mare in foal to Tiz the Law and while that might not be the physical mating I would have chosen, we were very happy with the price and both parents' racetrack accomplishments.

We have booked her back to champion freshman sire Bolt d'Oro, who seems to throw size and stretch no matter what mare he is bred to. His 2-year-olds were impressive at all the sales I attended in 2022 and they came through in their performances. I would certainly think with how they are built that they would stretch out and it also bodes very well for his half-brother Global Campaign, who we were lucky enough to sell as a yearling for WinStar!

MISS SHOP (m, 20, Deputy Minister – Shopping, by Private Account) to be bred to Authentic

Miss Shop was a grand old Grade I-winning, graded stakes-producing girl when we bought her. Her Into Mischief filly we sold last year at Keeneland September was one of my most favorite yearling fillies of the year, so we decided to repeat that breeding. Miss Shop is currently in foal to Into Mischief, but with his stud fee going out of our farm's comfort zone and us still being his biggest fan, we figured to book her back to the next-best thing: his gorgeous, well-priced son Authentic.

I tell you, those Authentic babies I saw at the sales were just beautiful! We have four yearlings by him and I am delighted with every single one. Miss Shop is one of three mares we have booked back to Authentic.

SPECIAL ME (m, 17, Unbridled's Song – Delta Danielle, by Lord Avie)

Special Me is currently in foal to Twirling Candy and is due in March. This little lady is the foundation of Machmer Hall. She has produced Grade I winners Gift Box (Twirling Candy) and Gina Romantica (Into Mischief), plus Grade II winners Special Forces (Candy Ride {Arg}) and Stonetastic (Mizzen Mast). She was our first mare to produce a homebred million-dollar yearling. She has a yearling full-brother to Gina Romantica this year. She is 17 years old now and this is one mating that is TBD. She has proven that she can go to a plethora of sire lines and have success. We figure that we will wait until she foals safely to make the decision for her next mating. It is a big choice!

Interested in sharing your own mating plans? Email garyking@thetdn.com.

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Tourist to Relocate to Rockridge Stud in New York

Tourist (Tiznow–Unbridled Melody by Unbridled's Song), a multiple Grade I-stakes winner with earnings of $2,170,340 and the record holder for the fastest time in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile, is relocating to Rockridge Stud in Hudson, NY for the 2023 season. A half-brother to GSP Michael With Us (Bluegrass Cat) and SW Harlan's Harmony (Spring at Last), he previously stood at WinStar Farm in Kentucky.

“He was getting overlooked, and some of the partners felt the move to New York would maximize his income potential with New York stallion awards,” says Rockridge Stud's Lere Visagie. “The partners who are staying in are planning to buy mares to give him a strong start.”

The sire of six stakes horses in 2022, including stakes-winners Carpenters Call–who also established a new track record in the Peach Street S.—and I Can Run, Tourist will stand for a fee of $3,500 in 2023. His 2-year-old colt Mo Tourist was most recently third in the GIII Grey S. at Woodbine last Saturday, and Tourist is also the sire of GISP Tango Tango Tango. This is the female family of dual Japanese champion Hishi Akebono (Woodman) and MG1SW, Japanese multimillionaire turned globetrotting sire Agnes World (Danzig) and GISP Unbridled Express (Unbridled's Song).

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‘Nobody Has a Crystal Ball’

Probably you know Carrie Brogden. The way her ideas, opinions, memories, emotions come tumbling out, one on top of the other. And how even after a few minutes she will have shared way too much of this torrent of vitality for the narrow channel of paragraphs that follows here.

Except you don't know Carrie Brogden. For instance, did you know that she's only here because of Einstein? Seriously. We'll come to that, and to the Beanie Babies, too, who have a more immediate role in her story.

But how are we truly supposed to know any human being, when even our collective obsession with an animal of largely simple needs still leaves us groping for answers?

Okay, so the latest Machmer Hall graduate to hit the big time, Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup winner Gina Romantica, is one of those that makes us feel that we might indeed be working to some coherent, viable principles. She's by Into Mischief, she cost a million bucks, so of course she's a Grade I filly.

But then she only cost that much because her mother Special Me (Unbridled's Song) had already produced millionaire Gift Box and graded stakes winners Stonetastic (Mizzen Mast) and Special Forces (Candy Ride {Arg})–and Brogden and her husband Craig found that mare, all 14.2 hands of her, for $6,000 at the Keeneland January Sale of 2009.

“Nobody has a crystal ball,” Brogden says. “We bred another Into Mischief, a colt we sold for $500,000, and he was a morning glory. He did not give a crap about running. The only Into Mischief I ever had that had no heart to run, it's such an unusual thing for him.”

Rather more characteristically, Brogden made it her business to salvage the horse from the wreckage of expectation.

“He was running in cheap claimers, and being claimed and claimed and claimed,” she says. “So I called the last trainer and bought him privately, and we placed him. And of course, he shipped in and, goddamn, he is breathtaking. But I'll tell you one thing, he's a lot happier being a show hunter, because he's happy going slow. And that's something I cannot predict. None of us can.”

But that cuts both ways. If all that glisters is not gold, then nor should we ignore diamonds in the rough.

“I've had so many great horses whose X-rays do not match,” Brogden says. “Just recently, I had a super-nice racehorse failed for a private sale, because 'issue' was found on an X-ray–from a cracked shin as a young horse, before his racing career, long healed. He's running, he's sound, he's working awesome, he's just won a couple of stakes. I mean, Flat Out (Flatter) had a big old defect in his front sesamoid. And he won, what, $6 million? And the people that bought him did so because they took the consignor's word [i.e. Meg Levy of Bluewater] that this was a nice, sound horse–which, obviously, he proved to be.”

She cites a maxim of Florida horseman Albert Davis: “Never forget that vets pass as many horses that can't run as they fail horses that can.”

Without that crystal ball, then, all we can do is try to breed and raise horses for a competitive outlook.

“Management makes you, management breaks you,” says Brogden. “I mean, ours don't come in. Sleet, rain, thunderstorms, they're out there learning how to face adversity. Now, if they're sick or injured, we take care of them. But if they're healthy, horses need to be outside. As Chris Baker once told me, 'Barns were created for people.'

“Year after year, it's the same breeders raising the racehorses. There's a big reason why those Ashview horses ran one-two in the Belmont. Because they keep them out in the fields, bumping around. We don't separate any of our colts until we go to prep. That's why I'm really proud of my horses a lot of times: in a crowded situation, coming up the rail, they won't be afraid.”

Brogden works from flesh and blood, not paper formulae. She comes from a family of mathematicians, took statistics in college herself, and is dismayed by the influence of flimsy data on mating strategies. All she wants is to breed a big, beautiful athlete, and that should be challenge enough. If you breed by numbers, and end up with a little rat, good luck.

Of course, she absolutely believes in pedigree; and why wouldn't you, when you have one like hers? Ever wondered where Machmer Hall gets its name? Step forward great-grandfather Dean William L. Machmer of the University of Massachusetts. Opposite him, on the maternal branch of her family tree, stands an equally distinguished figure: Guido Fubini, who fled Italy as Mussolini began to accelerate persecution of the Jews.

“If you ever saw the movie A Beautiful Mind, with Russell Crowe, the theorem on the blackboard, that he's trying to work through, is the Fubini Theorem,” Brogden explains. “Einstein, believe or not, helped my great-great-grandfather get a job in Princeton. They didn't tell their anyone, their housekeepers, nobody, they just went across the Swiss border on a day trip, and my grandmother had sewn the jewelry into her fur coat.”

One day Guido's son found a young woman in the lobby of their New York apartment block struggling to buckle a ski boot. He offered to assist her, and that's how Brogden's grandfather Eugene met her grandmother Betty. Eugene went on to become Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations.

Brogden has a vivid sense of her Italian ancestry. “Oh, definitely, those genes flow very freely through me,” she says with a laugh. “I love Italians because we wear our hearts on our sleeves, we put it all out there. We're flamboyant and ridiculous and over-the-top. I remember when my grandfather would blow his top, yelling and screaming. And then we'd sit down for dinner two minutes later, and he'd be like, 'Can you please pass the butter?' And that's kind of how I am, too. My poor kids! I have three great teenagers, all super-easy and responsible. Thank God they're not like I was!”

It would be wrong, however, to conflate this candid, demonstrative nature with her status as a relative pioneer, in a walk of life where women have long been underrepresented.

“Sometimes you do have to remember that you're dealing with a lot of men, and that often they're not so emotional,” she says with a shrug. “And that's okay. That's the yin and yang of it. My partner Andrew Cary always used to be like, 'Be careful, make sure what you're saying is what you mean–not the emotional, flippant Carrie!' And the closest men around me are all very smart, level-headed, even-keel: they do help to calm my over-the-top, passionate nature. But men are from Mars, women from Venus? I think that that is definitely changing. I don't think the young girls coming in will face the same stuff. I mean, women weren't even allowed in the breeding shed until the '80s. So, a lot of things have changed.”

Besides all her colorful antecedents, more immediately Brogden was also born to horses. Her parents were both veterinarians, ran an animal hospital in Virginia before taking on a farm in Ocala for a while. After they separated, Brogden's mother brought the kids back to Virginia to live with their Fubini grandparents. A traumatic experience, at an impressionable age, but the memory of her cherished grandmother would later be honored by Baby Betty (El Corredor) among Machmer Hall's foundation mares.

Brogden had been riding and showing through her girlhood, but parked the horses for psychology at college, and–ah yes, for the Beanie Babies. Her mom had launched a pet-themed gift store, and landed on a bewildering craze for these stuffed animals. Each cost only $2.50 wholesale but they were selling them online for $75 as fast as they could pack them up.

Their house was full of boxes, literally floor to ceiling. They rode the hectic wave, were glad when it finished, and Brogden's mom played up some of the winnings on a couple of mares, including an unraced daughter of Affirmed for just $7,700 deep in the Keeneland November Sale. And her half-brothers by His Majesty turned out to be GI Arlington Million winner Tight Spot and GI Hollywood Futurity winner Valiant Nature.

“So, she got really lucky there, and that was the start of it,” says Brogden, who now slipstreamed back to her first love, the horse; and met another one on the way, in the Australian chap she met one night in McCarthy's in Lexington.

But Brogden's debt to her mother Sandy Willwerth is not just a career path. All four siblings, growing up, were constantly challenged to raise the bar. And, sure enough, all graduated college to make an impact: one brother is a high-flying venture capitalist in California, another owns a construction company back in Virginia, their other sister has carved out a similar niche with show hunters to the one Machmer Hall has established with Thoroughbreds.

The program took root in Virginia but the superior land soon summoned them to Kentucky, where they started in 2001 with a parcel of 105 acres, cattle-grazed but auspiciously sited between Stone Farm and Claiborne. Craig had been working under the late Dr. Phil McCarthy, the pioneering reproductive veterinarian, at Watercress Farm.

“And a lot of our philosophy comes from Dr. McCarthy,” Brogden acknowledges. “Let horses be horses. Don't hothouse them. The only time they have to look spectacular is the day they walk onto the sales grounds.”

She says people give her grief over her support of HISA. It's not as though she won't give antibiotics to a horse with an infection; or apply shockwave to a hematoma.

“But I don't go through my stable and inject hocks and stifles on 15 different yearlings,” she says. “I think we've injected one yearling's ankle in two years. Any treatment we give is warranted and needed. I don't want to do blanket treatments, which I think is really what happened with Lasix. I know certain people won't like that I feel this way. But ultimately it's because I want our industry and everyone in it to be more successful.

“I'm not trying to talk down anyone else's product. I'm trying to raise the best horse I can. And I am not money-driven. I am success-motivated. The buyers know, if I know of a legitimate problem with a certain horse, I will absolutely tell them. I mean, we swim all our yearlings. I have a very good idea of who can and cannot breathe! The last thing in the world I want is somebody to buy a bad horse from me, especially for a lot of money.”

She would rather write off a sale and earn repeat business, just as she herself goes back to the same, trusted sources: whether Unbridled's Song mares, or Fox Hill mares, or mares bought by Ron Ellis for Spendthrift. Those have all added up, mind: Machmer Hall is now up to 560 acres, and 115 mares–the most they've ever had, and some will be traded out as they want no more than 85 foaling. Plus, don't forget 40 to 50 2-year-olds, spread among different consignors, and others retained for the track.

“I'm just a horse addict,” Brogden apologizes. “But they help you learn every year. I mean, one thing I've definitely learned through X-ray: don't start prep too early. They only need 60 days, otherwise you're going to create sesamoiditis. You watch that show, The Biggest Loser, where all these butterball people start a program of exercise and eating right, and all of a sudden most of them, wow, they look amazing. I think that prep is really our way of seeing the true nature of the athlete. When my parents had the farm down in Florida, you just kept them in the stall, kept their coats, and everything sold off pedigree. But all that's changing.”

The one constant, of course, remains the need for luck. Thirteen years ago this week Brogden and her partners were underbidders on the weanling colt that became Prime Cut (Bernstein), and instead settled for his dam for $4,500 from the back ring. If Life Happened (Stravinsky) could produce such a gorgeous son, then never mind if she was barren and reputed to be savage.

They tried to return her to Bernstein, but he had three mares confirmed that day so Brogden called round. Here was this big, stout, beautiful mare that needed to be bred today–and Spendthrift offered a new stallion called Into Mischief.

That mating produced Vyjack and next time, getting back in to Bernstein, they came up with Tepin herself. Brogden gratefully salvaged Prime Cut for $1,000 when he was discarded through a sale at the end of his racing days. Their dam, after all, couldn't have been better named. In a game of such uneven fortunes, in the end life just happens. No crystal ball.

“But that's the greatest thing about it,” Brogden says eagerly. “The fateful part that we can't control. I think that that's why so many men and women that are super-successful in other businesses come here–because they can't put a box around it. If they could, Sackatoga Stables would never have won the Derby with Funny Cide, you'd never have had the school bus and everything. I mean, that's what dreams are made of, right?

“You can have the best mare, the best stallion, and it's a beautiful physical mating. Everything works on paper. And then you have a nocardioform placentitis foal, 75lbs. And that's it, you're not going to have a racehorse. But ultimately, the fact that we can't really know is the greatest thing about it. Because the most valuable commodity of all is hope.”

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The Legacy of Arrogate: Gone Too Soon, Yet Just Getting Started

It was a little over six years ago when Juddmonte Farms' Arrogate (Unbridled's Song), seemingly from out of nowhere, took the racing world by storm. Producing heroics, often in jaw-dropping, record-breaking fashion, in the GI Travers S., GI Breeders' Cup Classic, GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. and G1 Dubai World Cup in succession, the imposing gray quickly catapulted himself into the discussion of all-time greats.

Though his racing career fizzled somewhat when he finished off the board in two of his final three starts after returning from Dubai, the enthusiasm was hardly dampened for what he could do as a stallion. As the last great son of generational sire Unbridled's Song and hailing from a deep female family highlighted by champion and six-time Grade I-winning third dam Meadow Star (Meadowlake), the sky was the limit for Arrogate as he took residence at Juddmonte in 2018. Not long after, tragedy struck.

Nearing the end of just his third season at stud, Arrogate collapsed suddenly in his stall and was unable to get back up. After a draining four days of testing at the Hagyard Clinic attempting to diagnose and save him, he was euthanized on June 2, 2020 at only seven years old. The mystery illness was later determined to be a lesion to his spinal cord that rendered him a quadriplegic.

“We were completely gutted by how it happened, and still are scratching our heads a bit,” Juddmonte general manager Garrett O'Rourke said. “For such a young horse, it was totally unexpected. It was extremely gutting for that to happen.”

The legacy of Arrogate, once thought sure to be etched in stone, was entirely up in the air as recently as last year. Seemingly as quickly as he appeared, dazzling the sport with his blinding brilliance, he was gone, with a mere three crops of foals now tasked with ensuring his name would live on beyond the late 2010s.

It frankly didn't look hopeful from the early results that they were up to the challenge. It took until Sept. 6, 2021, roughly five months after 2-year-olds began racing in North America for the year, for Arrogate to record his first winner as a stallion when DJ Stable's Adversity captured a fairly slow New York-bred maiden special weight at Saratoga. Momentum started to build somewhat from there, and he finished 2021 with 13 winners–a respectable number, but not the freshman sire splash Arrogate was expected to make.

Then, on the first day of 2022, a filly named Alittleloveandluck belatedly planted Arrogate's flag in stakes territory, capturing the Ginger Brew S. on the Gulfstream turf. Little did anyone know then, but that victory would be the perfect lid-lifter for what has become a breakout season for Arrogate the stallion at the highest level, with stars Secret Oath, Cave Rock and And Tell Me Nolies giving him three Grade I winners from just 92 total starters. Juddmonte itself has campaigned an additional stakes winner for him in Curlin S. victor Artorius.

“As Bob Baffert says, and I think Cave Rock and Secret Oath are like this: they're cruising along and then you let them down and their head drops down about five or six inches and that's the way they run,” O'Rourke said. “It's a very effective and efficient action. That's all you want out of them. You don't need them to look like their sire as long as they can run like him, and they definitely do run like him.”

As a filly and potential future broodmare, Secret Oath charging to victory in the GI Kentucky Oaks provided hope that Arrogate's longevity in the Thoroughbred breed might yet endure. Same goes for And Tell Me Nolies, who so far has conquered the GI Del Mar Debutante S. and GII Chandelier, and figures to be among the favorites in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

But the greatest triumph for Arrogate's legacy from his first two crops is almost certainly the emergence of Cave Rock. The dark bay, bought for $550,000 at Keeneland September–just $10,000 shy of matching Arrogate's selling price at the same auction in 2014–has been devastating in three starts, following up a six-length debut romp with a pair of easy, 5 1/4-length victories in the GI Del Mar Futurity and GI American Pharoah S. He will be heavily favored in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and is already guaranteed to be a sought-after stallion prospect regardless of what he does on the first Friday in November or, for that matter, next year's first Saturday in May.

Quick as this industry is to overreact to slow starts from freshman stallions, many were willing to write off Arrogate as a breeding influence early on. But in under a year, his progeny have completely turned that narrative around, and if you ask O'Rourke, he's not surprised.

“To say there was no doubt would be a little too cocky, but I had expectations of what he could and should be from experience of watching that sire line most especially,” he said. “A lot of people don't realize how slow a start Unbridled got off to with his 2-year-olds, and Unbridled's Song was that type as well. I likened [Arrogate] to a stallion like Curlin; you've got to let them be what they're bred to be and when they do get to that point in time, they're going to be very effective. Impatience just doesn't go hand in hand with those types of horses. Obviously, Unbridled's Song was a champion 2-year-old and maybe that came through with this year's 2-year-olds as well, but I think definitely the Secret Oath, Artorius types are exactly what we expected of Arrogate. It's brash to say that was a lock, but that's what we hoped for him and that's what they're doing.”

The surge in positive results on the racetrack has translated into the sales ring too. After 43 of 61 Arrogate yearlings offered from his first crop in 2020 sold for an average of $227,049, that average dropped precipitously to $142,519 in 2021 from 52 of 68 sold. This year, Arrogate's yearling average has jumped all the way back up to surpass his 2020 output at $241,400, with 56 of 61 changing hands.

“I was just feeling so sorry for the people that bred to him, that were so committed to him, that were left feeling a little bit empty on their investment,” O'Rourke said. “I was delighted to see him get the runners, but I was more delighted for the breeders who supported him to see their Arrogates sell so well at the sales this year, because it could've gone the other way for them. But everything fell into place and it happened at the right time, just before the sales.”

O'Rourke added that he thinks breeders adapting their mares to Arrogate's physical traits after his first season has aided his breakout, creating more harmonious matings for his second and especially third seasons at stud.

“The other thing about him is he probably had his best-looking crop of yearlings this year at the sales,” O'Rourke said. “He was a big horse and I always feel like breeders take a look at the first crop and they go, 'OK, well we bred a really good mare to him in the first year but maybe physically she wasn't the ideal type, so we'll tweak that in year two,' and then they really get it right in year three. I'm going to give the breeders all the credit for picking the right physical types of mares as opposed to pedigree crosses in year three, because you can see it in his sales averages. I saw them individually at the sales; they were a lovely crop of yearlings, and if they run according to their looks, it'll be really ironic that his third crop will quite possibly be the best of all three of his crops.”

If that turns out to be true, let there be no doubt that the legacy of Arrogate–the supernova who appeared in danger of being mostly forgotten just a year ago–will instead be undeniable for decades to come.

The post The Legacy of Arrogate: Gone Too Soon, Yet Just Getting Started appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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