Tag: Two-year-old races

Plays And Lays: Who Are The Juveniles To Side With And Against At Ascot?

It never ceases to amaze how much debate the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot generate each year. A quick scan on racing Twitter over the past few days confirmed as much. 

For all the fascinating puzzles that the royal meeting will serve up this week, including whether Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) can cope with Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the St James's Palace, what will reign supreme in the Prince Of Wales's or if any of the Australian sprinters can land a blow in the King's Stand S., it's the juvenile races that seem to be generating the most chatter.

TDN Europe's Brian Sheerin has taken a look at the main juvenile races to be run at Ascot and tried to decipher who to be on and who to side against this week. 

G2 Coventry S. – Tuesday

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The Coventry features a battle between TDN Rising Stars River Tiber (Ire) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) and Asadna (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) and it's hard to argue that the market has not got this one right. 

Favourites have a good record in the Coventry, with five of the past 12 doing the business, and River Tiber does not appear to have many chinks in his armour. 

A 10-length winner on soft ground at Navan on debut, Aidan O'Brien's charge proved just as effective on good ground when carrying a winner's penalty in a conditions event at Naas. 

The form of that race has worked out well since, with the fourth home, Supersonic Man (GB) (Bungle Inthejungle {GB}), now a 16-1 chance for the Windsor Castle after winning nicely at Tipperary last time. 

Wootton Bassett has had a couple of high-class juvenile performers, including Al Riffa (Fr) and Chindit (Ire), and River Tiber has already posted some decent figures. 

It's unoriginal but there's very little not to like about the Ballydoyle colt and he may well prove another winning favourite of the Coventry. 

Lay

Asadna put in one of the most visually impressive two-year-old performances of the season so far when streaking 12 lengths clear of his rivals on debut at Ripon but the case could be made that odds of 7-2 about him in the Coventry look skimpy. 

For all that he was mightily impressive, the form of that race has not worked out, and he obviously hadn't been showing connections that brilliance at home given he was allowed to go off a 4-1 chance on the day. 

Compared to River Tiber, who has gone on and beaten better opposition after his wide-margin debut win, the George Boughey-trained Asadna has not been tested since that emphatic Ripon success. 

Asadna could well be a freak, but River Tiber represents an altogether different test to what he faced on debut and he could be worth taking on at the prices. 

Dark horse

Bucanero Fuerte (GB) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) could be the one who is slipping in under the radar in the Coventry. 

Amo Racing may have had the runner-up in the Derby this year but the modus operandi of the operation has been to unearth classy two-year-olds, and this guy looked just that when winning the opening juvenile maiden of the year in Ireland at the Curragh. 

Not seen since then, Bucanero Fuerte will need to overcome the fact that 11 out of the past 12 Coventry runners had run within a month of Royal Ascot, but fitness shouldn't be a worry given he hails from such a professional operation. 

He's drawn beside the speedy Asadna so should get a good tow into the race. At odds of 16-1, this brother to Wooded (Ire) could represent better each-way value than the Boughey runner. 

G2 Queen Mary S. – Wednesday

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Beautiful Diamond (GB) (Twilight Son {GB}) would appear the one to be on. Karl Burke is operating at a whopping 26% strike-rate with his juveniles this term and he probably doesn't have many more exciting young fillies in his yard than this daughter of Twilight Son. 

Snapped up by Richard Brown of Blandford Bloodstock for £360,000 at the Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale from Tradewinds Stud, Beautiful Diamond made a perfect start to her career at Nottingham. 

There was a lot to like about the performance given she won by over three lengths going away at the line without having to be asked for maximum effort. 

Hailing from a stable who won this race last year and carrying the yellow and black silks of Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum, which have been synonymous with Royal Ascot winners, it's hard to get away from Beautiful Diamond in the Queen Mary. 

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Like Bright Diamond, Born To Rock (Ire) (Soldier's Call {GB}) was snapped up from breeze-up sales and made an immediate impact when landing a Yarmouth maiden in good style. 

However, the form of the race has not worked out as well as one might have hoped and, given she was installed as a 10-1 chance immediately afterwards, it's hard to be too enthused by the 9-2 on offer. 

Not only have the second and third from that Yarmouth maiden disappointed on their subsequent starts but the fourth home, Mantra (Ire) (Tamayuz {GB}), who was beaten just over five lengths by Born To Rock, was then beaten by over 15 lengths by Beautiful Diamond at Nottingham.

Given Mantra had the advantage of a run under her belt, one would have thought that she ought to be getting closer to Beautiful Diamond than she did. At roughly the same prices, Beautiful Diamond would have to represent the better value. 

Dark horse

Conrad Allen is not a trainer that one would associate with Royal Ascot-winning two-year-olds and, prior to Princess Chizara (Ire) winning on debut at Brighton, the stable was 0-28 with its juveniles in the past five years. 

Admittedly, that is a small sample size, but the point stands that Princess Chizara is clearly one of the smartest juveniles the trainer has got his hands on in a very long time. 

It may only have been a Brighton maiden but there was a lot to like about how Princess Chizara  accounted for a Richard Hannon-trained 2-9 favourite to win by over four lengths at the line. 

The Cotai Glory (GB) filly was clearly well-produced by Stevie Byrne of Knockgraffon Stables at the Tattersalls Guineas Breeze-Up Sale, where she was knocked down to Allen for 65,000gns after recording one of the fastest times. 

What she lacks for in size, Princess Chizara more than makes up for in ability, and she could well out-run her 33-1 odds in what looks a deep race. 

G2 Norfolk S. – Thursday

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Elite Status (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}) looked the real deal when landing a listed contest at Sandown last month and is another high-class juvenile that Karl Burke can look forward to running at the royal meeting. 

Unbeaten in both of his starts to date, Elite Status was described as a 'potential superstar sprinter' by his trainer after Sandown and it was easy to see why given he has such an honest and natural way of galloping. 

Of all the juvenile favourites running this week, Elite Status probably has the most rock-solid credentials, and he looks the one to be on in the Norfolk. 

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In a normal year, American Rascal (Curlin) may well have been expected to go off favourite but the presence of Elite Status in the race means that will be unlikely. 

It's also worth noting that Wesley Ward's runners tend to be over-bet at this meeting, for all that he has enjoyed colossal success down through the years.

American Rascal looked very good when winning on debut at Keeneland but he'll need to be up there with the best of what Ward has targeted at this meeting with to give Elite Status something to think about. 

Dark horse

This is not just about the top two in the betting as Donnacha O'Brien's Devious (GB) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) needs to be respected. 

He showed natural speed and talent when landing the odds on debut over the minimum trip at Naas where he looked a bona fide Norfolk horse and earned a TDN Rising Star in the process. He's smart.

Others to note

It is interesting that Donnacha O'Brien has secured Frankie Dettori to ride Porta Fortuna (Ire) (Caravaggio) in Friday's G3 Albany S. She looked good when winning a five-furlong Curragh maiden on debut and was even better when winning a Group 3 at Naas over a furlong further last month. She's clearly a filly on the up and could well go off shorter than the 8-1 that is available now. 

There are no entries for Saturday's Chesham S. but, if Pink Satin (GB) turns up, which was reported to be the plan after she won on debut at Windsor, she would have to be respected. There was plenty of each-way support around for Pink Satin at Windsor and she put a well-regarded filly to the sword to win going away by just over a length in the finish. 

She will have a relatively quick turnaround to overcome, given that debut win came just last Monday, but Paul and Oliver Cole didn't appear to be too worried about that in the winner's enclosure at Windsor. 

She looks to be another strapping daughter of Churchill (Ire) and, given it is not too uncommon for fillies to pop up in the Chesham every now and again [Maybe (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) in 2011 and September (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in 2017], she could be one to keep on side. 

 

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