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Friday Insights: Pair Of Undefeated Fillies Square Off

2nd-CD, $134K, OC, 3yo, f, 6f, 6:28 p.m.
A pair of fillies will look to stay unbeaten in their third career starts at Churchill Downs on Friday evening.

'TDN Rising Star' SUNDAY SHOES (Pioneerof the Nile) came from off the pace breaking her maiden sprinting at Turfway Park Feb. 15, then got up by 3/4 of a length in Florence Apr. 1 in the Serena's Song S. over next-out stakes winner Jill Jitterbug (Cross Traffic). The $500,000 Keeneland September Yearling sale purchase trained by Wesley Ward counts among her female family Grade I winners like third dam Easy Now (Danzig) and her half-brother, Easy Goer (Alydar).

Another filly with a perfect record is the WinStar-bred and Juddmonte-owned Dazzling Blue (Into Mischief) from the barn of Brad Cox. She comes out of the same sale and went for the same price as her rival here, but her debut victory came under the Twin Spires late in her juvenile campaign when she won by 4 1/2 lengths before winning the Letellier Memorial S. Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds.

Opposing them is a more experienced layoff runner from trainer Larry Rivelli's shedrow with Jareth Loveberry aboard. Back to Ohio (Midshipman) sold last year for $385,000 at the OBS April sale and broke her maiden during the summer at Presque Isle Downs. She then proceeded to win three of her next four races in minor stakes along the Ohio-Pennsylvania circuit with the last coming around two turns Oct. 29 in the Best of Ohio John W. Galbreath S. at Mahoning Valley by 7 1/4 lengths. TJCIS PPS

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‘We Almost Shocked The World’

They know perfectly well, by this stage, that the apostrophe shouldn't be there. They've been asked, and told, about it often enough. But you know what? They're fine with that. They have come round to the view that it fits the horse, that quirky outlying touch; fits their whole story. Because really there's no way they should be here, either.

“Every year, 20,000 foals are born,” reflects Anthony Sagan. “And only 20 make it to the Derby. But not only did we make it, we were a length off winning it. We almost pulled it off, almost shocked the world.”

Sagan's father Phillip is one of the two octogenarian namesakes in the entourage who prompted the naming of Two Phil's (Hard Spun), that consoling sunbeam through the black clouds that had gathered over our sport last Saturday.

Even the 20 who drew a gate for the GI Kentucky Derby had not yet finally confounded the odds. No fewer than five were withdrawn between declaration and post time, three substitutes completing a field of 18. But Two Phil's, bred from the only Thoroughbred the Sagan family ever bought and ignored by every expert in the first session of the Keeneland September Sale, not only showed that he belonged. He actually took command turning into the stretch, and saw off every challenger bar Mage (Good Magic).

Second place, so near and yet so far, notoriously invites mixed feelings. But the Two Phil's team are still buzzing from an unforgettable day, even if it's only human to dwell on the bittersweet sense that Two Phil's touched, but could not quite grasp, the hem of turf history.

“Yes, we were happy and sad all in the same moment,” Sagan admits. “We were so proud of the horse and what he's accomplished. And we were sad because we just almost did it-and the odds of us getting ever back to there are… Well, it's like winning the lottery, will be in the billions. So many people try to get to the Derby every year, so many big-time owners and sheikhs and billionaires. And a little guy like us, we almost pulled it off.”

Mage and Two Phil's | Coady Photography

There had been corresponding support for the team all week, on the backside, and above all during the coveted “walkover” with Two Phil's, and the 17 others elected by fate, from the barns to the paddock. Being relative novices–the Sagans had previously only dabbled in a few Standardbreds–they were taken aback by the emotional intensity of that ritual.

“We didn't even realize that it was such a big deal, and what it entailed,” Sagan acknowledges. “It was an incredible experience; I can't even describe it. People along the rail, yelling and cheering and high-fiving us, screaming for Two Phil's: 'Let's go!' I'd never seen anything like this in my life. We didn't know how many fans the horse had out there. I think he'd kind of become a fan favorite, kind of the hard-working, blue-collar horse.”

He was also a Chicago horse, in spirit at least. His trainer Larry Rivelli won every Arlington training title from 2014 until the track's heartbreaking closure in 2021 by the same corporation that now provided the stage for this fairytale. Co-owner Vince Foglia of Patricia's Hope LLC, meanwhile, had been leading owner there since 2015. And Jareth Loveberry, who started out round a “five-eighths bull-ring” at Great Lakes Downs 18 years ago, had won its last two riding titles. Cast adrift from Arlington, here they were coming ashore with a horse that asked no favors and gave no quarter.

Poignantly, the Sagan family had spent their harness days at another doomed Illinois circuit, Maywood Park. In dipping their toe into the Thoroughbred world, however, they gave $40,000 for an unraced 3-year-old filly by a failed stallion, General Quarters. She had been recommended by two seasoned horsemen, Jerry La Sala and Gene Lotti, and their judgement was vindicated when Mia Torri became a dual stakes winner and twice finished second in graded stakes.

At this point they reached the first of many junctions, many roads not taken, on the winding road that ultimately led to last Saturday.

“The smart move would have been to sell her,” Sagan concedes. “At one point, we were being offered $300,000–plus for Mia Torri as a broodmare prospect. But she always had a special meaning to us. We'd named her after my grandma. And I always had a gut instinct, even when she got hurt and had to retire, that she could be something more. Horses like this don't come around very often. If you take the money, and then go out and buy some others, what are the chances you'll find one as good as this? The odds are way against you.”

It didn't look as though the gamble would pay off after Mia Torri lost her first foal, but she went back to Hard Spun for her second cover. This priceless conduit to the great Danzig had been picked out for the Thoroughbred rookies by Steve Leving, another stalwart of the Chicago racing scene. (Indeed, he would eventually re-enter the saga as Loveberry's agent.) Hard Spun was tough, classy, versatile, and fairly priced-and he also complemented the mare physically.

“Fortunately, the foal got the father's body and frame,” Sagan recalls. “Mia Torri's well put together, but she's not a really big, powerful-looking mare. But right from when he was born, he also got his mom's head: her demeanor, her attitude, her mental fortitude.”

The colt was foaled, raised and broken by Elise Handler at Spruceton Farm, Kentucky: yet another instance, in this story, of someone seizing a rare opportunity and reaching the highest standards. Handler got him through some of the usual baby issues and by the time the Keeneland inspectors came, they wanted to put him into Book I of the September Sale. But here was another twist in the road.

“Because with his pedigree he probably didn't probably belong in that first book,” Sagan says. “These people were experts, they knew what they were doing, and obviously saw something they liked in him. But placing him where they did probably kept us involved in the horse. Because if he'd been in Book III, we would probably have sold for $100,000.”

As it was, Hip 62 didn't meet his reserve at $150,000. They tried again, at OBS the following spring, and Jimmy Gladwell has since told Sagan that the colt had outworked all his other charges that winter. But he didn't sparkle in his breeze and it was clear that he would fall through the market cracks.

“You know what?” Gladwell said. “He's better than this. Take him home.”

With the fathers of Sagan and La Sala both sharing the same name, the colt was registered as Two Phil's and entered training with Rivelli, whose main patron Foglia also bought into the horse. (Latterly, the horse having put himself in the Derby picture, Madaket Stables came in for a piece too.) And the rest is history: Two Phil's emulated Hard Spun by winning the race now known as the GIII Jeff Ruby S., before finishing second in the big one.

Two Phil's | Coady Photography

The Turfway race also produced Rich Strike (Keen Ice) to stun everyone in the Derby last year, but Two Phil's arrived with far wider belief behind him–not least after taking to the track so well in the GIII Street Sense S. last fall. So, while the whole team was cognizant of their privilege simply in securing a Derby gate, they weren't just in town for the ride.

“Just qualifying for the race, yes, that was a major accomplishment for this horse,” Sagan says. “But we believed that we had a real chance to win. I got there on Monday, because I knew that this was a once-in-a-lifetime shot and wanted to take it all in. And every morning on the backstretch people came up, wanted to take pictures and talk.”

A big Chicago crew assembled on raceday: Sagan's sisters, his nieces and nephews, a bunch of cousins and friends. And of course, Foglia had a lot of people with him, too, as did Rivelli. It felt like they had a long afternoon ahead, hanging out, walking around, soaking it up. The two Phils, characters both, did a spot on NBC. And before they knew it, it was time for the walkover.

Then a media group not only trained a camera on Sagan but hooked him up with a microphone and even a heart monitor.

“They said they wanted to share the experience of an owner watching the Derby,” Sagan recalls. “I said, 'Guys, I might swear a little bit!' They said not to worry, they'd get rid of that. But if we won, this would be all over the world news. My dad was down on the rail, but he couldn't even pick his head up. He was so nervous, he wouldn't watch it. He wanted to win for my mom. She just passed in December, she loved the horse, and would have been so proud to be a part of this. So, it was emotional for all of us.”

That heart monitor must have melted when Loveberry pounced from his stalking position.

“When he took the lead in the stretch, it really felt like we were going to win the Derby,” Sagan says. “I knew this horse has a huge heart, how hard he tries every time. Every other horse that had been near the front, they all finished 14, 25, 50 lengths back. But Two Phil's kicked on and got beat a length. The race he ran wins the Derby, like, nine out of 10 years. He ran a phenomenal race but hats off to Mage, we just came up short.”

Though Rivelli has decided to sit out the GI Preakness S., Two Phil's has put himself firmly in the elite of the crop and promises all kinds of excitement in the second half of the campaign. Meanwhile he has also brightened the future for his dam, who was bred back to Omaha Beach this spring. The Spendthrift stallion is already sire of her 2-year-old colt, apparently very handsome but just held up by a minor issue as a $32,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton's Kentucky October Sale. He is in pre-training with Gladwell, while a yearling colt by McKinzie is being prepared for a likely appearance at the September Sale.

Sagan pays warm tribute to the way everyone involved, from farm to racetrack, has contributed to the development of Two Phil's.

“We're family-oriented people,” he says. “We try to stay with family businesses, and we're loyal. Everyone did a great job and we're happy that they got on the radar with Two Phil's. These horses don't come around too often, so it's pretty special for all of us. Jareth gave him a great ride. He saw the hole, he went for it, and almost pulled off an amazing upset. And with Larry, the horse always comes first. He gets them the best treatments, the best vitamins, the best feed. And he's got a great team.”

Team Two Phil's at Derby Draw | Coady Photography

After a fairly harrowing week for our community, this horse can help to keep the faith in the game's redemptive potential-if only we can do our bit right.

“Listen, I know there's a lot of black eyes around Thoroughbred racing right now,” Sagan accepts. “And these big tracks like Churchill make so much money, they should be doing everything they can to make conditions as safe as possible.

“But yes, horse racing needs these stories to keep the game going. How about Cody's Wish? That's another feel-good story. Some of these horses have a lot of meaning to people. We need to put that out there, make people realize that this game is not just about money and fame. Guys like us are a perfect example. This was sport, a hobby, something we love. Sure, it's awesome to succeed. But it wasn't our goal to make money. That's almost impossible to do. We managed to pull it off, but the horse did it, not us. He does all the work, and he deserves all the credit.”

Sagan is little too modest here. He's a poker player, after all, and has always been a gambler. And it took a risk-taker's instinct to keep his family aboard for this thrilling adventure. It would have been a more prudent option, no doubt, to take the money for Mia Torri; and not to persevere with her son when repeatedly rejected at market.

“But if you've got a good product, you stick with it, and that's what we did,” Sagan says. “We did feel this mare was going to be special. But yes, it's like a fairy story. You have one horse, you breed her, and you almost win the Derby. I remember the day he was born. Elise sent me a picture. It was an awesome thing, like, wow. But never in our wildest dreams could we imagine that any of this could happen.”

Hence the connection people demonstrated with the horse, making that Derby walkover: here was living, breathing, hard-running proof that everybody has some kind of chance.

“In the betting line, he was not a longshot,” Sagan notes. “He was 9-1, actually the fourth choice. But the story of this horse is what makes him a longshot. How he was bred, where he came from, and all the things that happened to him along the way. He was the underdog.

“Everyone on the backside was saying how good it was to see a new face get to this spot in the game. Mostly it's Pletcher, Cox, Baffert, the same guys with three or four horses every year, and the same ownership groups. Nothing against any of them. They put a lot of money into the game, and deserve any success they get. But it's good that a small-time guy with one horse can get to the Derby. It gives hope to other people that play this game. It shows that anything's possible.”

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From Great Lakes Downs to the Derby

The colt had been getting a little fractious in the gate and now he half sat down: too low for Jareth Loveberry to climb out, but not low enough to scramble underneath. “Get me out!” the jockey hollered. He was just trying to lift himself clear when his mount came back up and pinned a calf against the steel. The pain was excruciating. It was only five seconds or so before they got the gate open but that was enough, as they stretched him out, for the agony to be instantly submerged beneath a still keener anguish.

“I'm laying on the ground and I'm like, 'Oh no, oh my gosh, could I miss my opportunity?'” he recalls now. “For all the pain, that's what I'm thinking about. 'Man, am I going to miss my opportunity?'”

Opportunity, note: singular not plural. For jockeys, chances come and go, and eventually tend to establish a familiar spectrum. At 35, Loveberry has ridden close to 13,000 races but had only had two Grade III winners before he won a Colonial Downs maiden last summer on a Hard Spun colt trained by Larry Rivelli. The partnership followed up in a stakes at Canterbury Park, and then tested much deeper water in the GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland in October. Starting rank outsiders, they duly finished seventh behind crop leader Forte (Violence). Yet it was only then, paradoxically, that Loveberry recognized that single, elusive opportunity: the horse that could break the ceiling that congeals and closes over most journeyman careers.

“He got beat,” Loveberry acknowledges. “But you learn a lot in defeat, and I loved him more that day than in his wins. He was jostled around really hard, and he wasn't sure about it. Down the backside, he'd dropped the bit. I'm like, 'Okay, did you just shut off because you're done fighting me, or are you just done?' And then we're coming around the second turn and I just picked the bridle up on him a little bit and he took off again.”

Not done, then.

“Something just clicked,” Loveberry continues. “He did get tired, but I'm thinking for the first time we've got something here. If we can just get him back, behind horses, he relaxes. And afterwards I was like, 'Larry, this horse is… nice. He's a lot better horse than we thought.'”

Sure enough, Two Phil's has since made us all get used to that rogue apostrophe. He won the GIII Street Sense S. by five lengths plus, over the same surface that will stage the GI Kentucky Derby in a couple of weeks' time; and podium finishes in two of the Fair Grounds trials this winter convinced Loveberry that Two Phil's was indeed maturing into a credible Derby candidate. Moreover the jockey was himself sharing the momentum, standing second in the meet standings. But suddenly here he was, three weeks before the horse's final prep in the GIII Jeff Ruby S. at Turfway, lying on his back with a horrible suspicion that he had broken his leg.

“Yeah, I couldn't sleep that night—for a couple of reasons,” Loveberry recalls. “Because of the pain, but also just thinking that I was going to miss this horse, miss my opportunity. Did I need to pack everything in New Orleans, come home? So next morning I saw the specialist. It was nerve-racking, going in there, it hurt really bad. My boot was putting a lot of pressure where the fracture was. But taking that off relieved it a lot. Maybe there was a hope against hope.”

Yes, there was. They took an X-ray of the fibula, and it proved to be a hairline fracture. “Look,” said the specialist. “It's not bad. You can start putting weight on it and get around and I'll see you in a couple of weeks.”

In the meantime, inevitably, the vultures were circling. “Man, are you going to make it back?” Rivelli asked.

Loveberry was as reassuring as possible.

“Well, we got some phone calls!” replied Rivelli. “But I'm holding out for you.”

A week after the accident, Loveberry saw another specialist back home in Chicago. The bone had healed so well that the very next morning he went out and breezed Two Phil's at Hawthorne. When he came in, Rivelli said: “All right, now I can tell everybody you're riding him.”

Two Phil's and Jareth Loveberry win the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. | Coady Photography

So while Loveberry was still riding in a brace even this week, and still tender, this had turned out the most literal of lucky breaks. Because Two Phil's duly won the Jeff Ruby with such authority that many people are wondering whether he can become the second consecutive Derby winner to graduate from that synthetic trial.

Certainly he certainly goes into the Derby as the undisputed blue-collar rooting interest. The horse is a yearling buyback, named for two octogenarian Phils in the ownership group. Rivelli, a stalwart of the Midwest circuit, would be within his rights to stand in the Churchill winner's circle and berate the track's owners for closing his spiritual home at Arlington. And all you need to know about Loveberry himself is the advice he always gives to aspiring young jockeys: “Work your ass off to get there—and when you get there, work harder.”

But while he will bring all due humility to the giddiest opportunity of his life, he will not suffer the slightest vertigo.

“Looking back, it's crazy: to go from a five-eighths bull-ring to the Kentucky Derby,” he admits. “In between it's been 18 years of just riding all over the place, different spots, different class levels. But I think that has made me what I am, starting from the bottom.”

The bull-ring was Great Lakes Downs in Michigan.

“It was only open for maybe 10 years, but that's where I started racing in 2005,” he recalls. “I'd walked across the street to a horse farm when I was 12 years old, just for a summer job cleaning stalls. They had Thoroughbreds, and I started getting on them when I was 14. And just fell in love. You can't really explain it. My dad's in construction, my mom's in banking. But I just felt comfortable around those horses. It just works. I like going around, seeing my horses every day. I feed them peppermints, I graze them, whatever I can do to help them out.”

On these foundations, a guy who started out in college to become an architect has built a career that has so far yielded 1,759 winners. Many were eked out at the basement level, from Ohio to Oklahoma; but he has made incremental gains in quality, especially over the past couple of years. In 2021, for instance, he tipped $3 million for the first time at a win ratio of 23 percent; while last year he broke into the top 50 riders nationally with earnings exceeding $5 million.

So while Loveberry also had the rug pulled from under his feet by the closure of Arlington, his success in the Fair Grounds colony has now opened the door to the Kentucky circuit. And the Two Phil's adventure is certainly all the sweeter for the involvement of such a longstanding ally.

“It really is,” Loveberry says. “I've been riding for Larry since 2011 and he's just a great guy. So with him having been so loyal to me, and me trying to be as loyal as I can to him too, it's great for us both to be going to our first Derby together. Larry is tough to ride for, but great to ride for. I mean, you obviously want him to be tough, because you want to win: he works hard, he's there at the barn all the time, and he's really good at placing his horses. Once he finds a good horse, he really manages that horse, always picks the right spots to develop them. Instead of doing it like a machine, I guess. He has great help at the barn, too, they really focus on the horse.”

Two Phil's, as such, is a typical project. Though actually unavailable for his debut, Loveberry has been part of the horse's development from his earliest works. And, just like his jockey, Two Phil's has the kind of seasoning that is increasingly uncommon in the Derby field. With so many contenders nowadays arriving on a light schedule, Two Phil's will be a relatively gritty veteran of eight starts.

“I think that's very beneficial for him,” Loveberry emphasizes. “Having experienced so many different races and surroundings, he's going to be a well-rounded horse. He's been in tight. He's been in front, and farther off of it. He's been in slop. He's really seen a lot of different things, and that maturity will help in a spot like that. Because he has just kept developing. He was green early on, and can get a little quirky, but I've learned about him over the last year and now he's able to shut off and give that high cruising speed, which I think his daddy had too.

“At Fair Grounds he had a three-month layoff from the Street Sense to the [GIII] Lecomte S. He got tired in that race but ever since I've been like, 'Man, Larry, he's getting better and getting smarter all the time.' And in the Jeff Ruby he put it all together. I don't think it was about the surface. He's won on dirt, wet dirt, synthetic. A good horse will run on anything, and he's proven thatAnd I just think he's peaking at the right time.”

Likewise his jockey, who rode with all due verve and confidence at Turfway.

“I was just sitting and sitting, and looking for the one [favorite Major Dude (Bolt d'Oro)],” Loveberry recalls. “I see him make a bit of a move on the inside, so I just gave him a little smooch and he did the rest. His gallop out that day, the outrider had to help pull me up, he was really full of himself.”

Actually the outrider's horse slammed right into his injured leg. Ouch. But the man they call “J Love”—as stitched into his breeches—hardly needed that jolt to remain grounded. As a family man, with two young kids, nothing is going to skew his priorities at this stage.

“I think I've had some good opportunities to help get me to this spot,” Loveberry says, contemplating the 20-horse stampede ahead. “I've learned from other riders that have been through it, they've given me pointers here and there. But I've never looked at any race and said, 'Oh, I have to win that for my career.' Obviously you want to win the Kentucky Derby. All eyes are on it. But is it the be-all and end-all? No. If we just put our best foot forward, keep level-headed, I think that goes a long ways. When you start overthinking it, that's when you start making mistakes. So let's just keep headed in the right direction, and hope he's healthy going in the race.”

But the reason he won't be getting ahead of himself, the reason he will be staying calm, is also the reason to be excited.

“I mean, it's horse racing,” Loveberry says, with a shrug and a smile. “Anything could happen.”

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TDN Derby Top 12: Final Fireworks Before the Caravan Rolls On

We're approaching the edge of the GI Kentucky Derby abyss. Three final 100-points prep races Saturday, followed by four weeks of microscopic analysis and animated speculation. Bring it on!

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte has made it through his two-race prep campaign still perched atop the Top 12. But it's now an open question as to how strong his grip is, considering the scare he gave backers at 3-10 odds when flying home with a belated rush to nail the GI Curlin Florida Derby by a length.

What we saw was an athlete so far ahead of his peers, that, even though he was tactically disavdantaged by leaving himself so much work to do, Forte was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat without fully extending himself. A few desperate moments for sure, but no true panic.

Still, the not-fully-cranked Florida Derby win exposed vulnerabilities. Forte registered a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he regressed to a 98 when winning the GII Fountain of Youth S. That number dipped again, to 95, in the Florida Derby. If you're an improving divisional champion and formidbale Derby favorite, those Beyers should be going in the opposite direction.

Forte is a stalker at his best and a very capable closer from farther back when circumstances dictate. But the Derby has not recently been kind to horses who make sustained far-turn moves. In eight of the last nine Derbies, the first horse under the wire has raced either on the lead or just off it. Forte will be up against the grain of that winning profile in 4 1/2 weeks.

Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., said he had to resort to Plan B when Forte couldn't clear the field into the first turn in the Florida Derby like he thought he would. Ortiz had to urge the champ before settling into a more rhythmic beat down the backstretch.

Forte edged up incrementally, but still looked beaten at the five-sixteenths pole. He hesitated momentarily before responding nimbly to Ortiz's hand commands off the turn, and it took mild left-handed encouragement and the length of the stretch to reel in his target in measured fashion.

Yet Forte finished with his ears pricked after making the lead in the final few jumps to the wire, a subtle, positive sign that he can handle more.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by AfleetAlex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Practical Move owns the two fastest final times among the 16 points-earning Derby qualifying stakes run at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23. He ran 1:41.65 when winning the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 when he tallied in the GII San Felipe S. For perspective, no other horses in that series of stakes have clocked below 1:43.06.

Based on how impressively this Tim Yakteen trainee orchestrated that San Felipe score, Practical Move seems well equipped to handle a stretch-out to nine furlongs and beyond.

Inside runs have evolved as the strong suit for this son of Practical Joke, who has enough tactical speed to stay in touch with brisk paces and enough late-race oomph to see his jobs through.

Should he win Saturday's GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby while putting up a second consecutive triple-digit Beyer, Practical Move would head to Louisville with a touch of swagger–and maybe enough gravitas to challenge Forte for favoritism.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

Tapit Trice will headline the field when entries are drawn Wednesday for the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. This Todd Pletcher-trained gray is on a roll with three straight victories following a very useful third in his Nov. 6 debut.

This colt himself probably doesn't need much shoring up in terms of confidence. But bettors leaning toward backing this son of Tapit in the Kentucky Derby are going to want more assurance he can get out of the gate capably.

Tapit Trice has been lethargic off the mark in all four lifetime starts. Yet his raw talent, assertive nature, and ability to reliably fire down the lane have been enough to overcome any self-imposed disadvantages so far.

The Kentucky Derby is going to be different. The multiple waves of attackers will definitely not be of the lower-caliber variety like those Tapit Trice manhandled in the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. The desperate image of jockey Luis Saez imploring Tapit Trice for run at multiple points in that race still resonates, even though the result was a win.

These lead-in stakes to the Derby are called “preps” for a reason. Tapit Trice is safely 11th with 50 points on the Derby leaderboard.

Still, a Blue Grass victory with a more adept start would go a long way toward solidifying his status as a major threat in Louisville.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–BeyondGrace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Geaux Rocket Ride, celebrating his third birthday Apr. 4, will enter Saturday's Santa Anita Derby stretching out from a 92-Beyer sprint debut win and a very encouraging 96-Beyer, pace-pressing second in the 1 1/16-miles San Felipe S.

Trainer Richard Mandella told Daily Racing From last week this son of Candy Ride must either win or “have a good reason for not winning” to merit an attempt in the Kentucky Derby.

That pragmatic approach underscores why the Hall of Fame conditioner rarely makes the trip to Louisville unless he's confident he has a colt with a realistic shot.

Should he win Saturday, Geaux Rocket Ride will head to Kentucky with a perfect 3-for-3 record. Comparisons to recent 3-for-3 Derby winners Justify (2018) and Big Brown (2008) would ensue. Who knows? Those lofty appraisals just might be warranted.

5) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN RisingStar'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

One metric certain to percolate over the next month is trainer Steve Asmussen's 0-for-24 record in the Derby, a vexing statistical shadow that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has publicly dealt with in good humor as that number has edged upward over the past several seasons.

Objectively though, his record has to be considered skewed by the large number of “just take a shot” Derby starters Asmussen has saddled over the decades.

When you drill down the list to Asmussen's best-intended Derby entrants, none of them have ever been off the board. Curlin (third in 2007) and Gun Runner (third in 2016) later blossomed spectacularly despite not peaking on the first Saturday in May. And last year's Derby fave, Epicenter, looked home free before an 80-1 shot relegated him to second in the final jumps.

This handsome, sturdy son of Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) won't be a top-tier betting choice. He closed at 33-1 in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager last Saturday.

But look out for this 'TDN Rising Star' and Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred, who has put together two better-than-they-look routes since stretching out off an August layoff. Both off-the-pace efforts were against the biases of speed-favoring tracks.

Disarm closed for second in a Feb. 19 Oaklawn allowance behind a wire-to-wire winner on an afternoon when horses racing on the lead or just off it won seven of nine races. And he was second (with minor trip trouble) in the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby when trying to pull back another frontrunner who set a slow tempo on a day when 10 forwardly placed horses scored in 11 dirt races at Fair Grounds.

6) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

After a 94-Beyer win in the GI Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire rates as the only Top 12 contender with two wins at nine furlongs.

Since starting this Pennsylvania-bred's career at Horseshoe Indianapolis last summer, trainer Brad Cox has brought along this son of 2017 Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire in patient fashion, all the way praising Angel of Empire's unruffled demeanor and keen mind.

“He's not blessed with a tremendous amount of speed,” Cox said Sunday at Oaklawn. “He just kind of breaks. And he's not void of speed, but he kind of finds his way and they get away from him a little bit. But he settles. He's a very smart horse.”

While Angel of Empire's late-run win in the GII Risen Star S. on Feb. 18 was aided by a pace meltdown, his no-nonsense score in the Arkansas Derby resonated more along the lines of him purposefully cracking the leader while blowing by the two favorites. A nicely torqued far-turn bid put him over the top at the quarter pole, then he freewheeled into another gear that didn't suggest this colt was scraping bottom, stamina-wise.

It's only a small sample of six races, but Angel of Empire's final furlong at Oaklawn (:12.12) is the fastest so far among the 1 1/8-miles preps in 2022-23. He also closed into the second-fastest final furlong (:12.95) in the Risen Star.

7) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters)O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

The company lines for Two Phil's, the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, upticked over the weekend when two horses who beat him in recent months–Angel of Empire and Forte–both won Grade I stakes.

If this Larry Rivelli trainee is being molded to follow the career path of his sire, Hard Spun, that would be a worthy aspiration. Hard Spun also won the version of Turfway's premier stakes in 2007 (when the Jeff Ruby was known as the GII Lane's End S. and run over Polytrack). That win vaulted Hard Spun to 2-3-4 finishes in the three Triple Crown races and a second-place try later that season in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

Hard Spun carved out a reputation as a reliable, determined runner who could handle any type of distance or surface. Two Phil's, with wins both sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop, and now Tapeta, is similarly evolving as a colt who goes out and executes, no matter what assignment he is tasked with. He's an overachiever who could make an outsized impact in the Derby.

8) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage is an eye-catching chestnut, but he sparks interest as a Kentucky Derby “dark horse” after his last-to-first slingshot move on the far turn of the Florida Derby. The only foe capable of running him down was the vastly more experienced divisional kingpin, Forte.

Mage broke toward the back and was slow to settle on the first turn, eventually dropping out last. Jockey Luis Saez didn't rush him, and instead let Mage find his stride, coaxing the colt to uncoil 4 1/2 furlongs out.

A commanding burst of acceleration in the five path gave Mage an unexpected far-turn jump on Forte, who had yet to ramp up into a higher gear. That big move might have been a tad premature, but it propelled Mage to the lead at the head of the homestretch. And once he hit the front he confidently repulsed a long drive from another better-seasoned colt, the third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief). Mage yielded to the more powerful Forte in the final strides, but held second without quitting.

“He might have gotten tired but, remember, it's still his third race,” said assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado, Jr. “How many races did it take for Forte to get to the level he is?”

9) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns, who wired the GII Louisiana Derby in his most recent start, got pounded to 11-1 second favoritism in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager that closed last Saturday.

Although the prospect of an undefeated colt is always tantalizing, that mutuel seems underlaid with respect to what price Kingsbarns will actually be on Derby day.

The plot for this Uncle Mo colt also thickened over the weekend in terms of who will ride him in the Derby. With the win by Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby, jockey Flavien Prat now has potentially competing calls aboard last-race winners Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire and Geaux Rocket Ride.

10) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

It was a nice bit of value handicapping if you locked in 130-1 odds on the vastly overlooked Slip Mahoney in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager that closed Apr. 1.

This Arrogate colt out of an A.P. Indy mare is bred to run all day. He exits a dismal trip when second and closing with a big rush over a muddy track in the GIII Gotham S., and is likely going to be the favorite or second choice in the GII Wood Memorial S. this Saturday (entries Wednesday). Should he run big at Aqueduct, that juicy futures ticket could represent roughly five to seven times his starting price come Derby day.

This $150,000 KEESEP colt has only won once, but Slip Mahoney's first two losses at the MSW level came at the expense of No. 3-ranked Tapit Trice and the formerly Top 12-ranked Litigate (Blame), who subsequently won the GIII Davis S. at Tampa, but is now off the Derby trail.

Note that the Gotham (and Slip Mahoney) got a boost this past Saturday when the fourth-place finisher out of that one-turn mile, Eyeing Clover (Lookin At Lucky), came back to win Oaklawn's $200,000 Hot Springs S.

11) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $126,100. Last Start: 1st in GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct Feb. 11. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Hit Show, a Candy Ride (Arg) colt who won't technically turn three until three days after the Derby, has Saturday's Wood Memorial circled as his chance to leapfrog into Derby relevancy from his current 27th spot on the qualifying list.

A homebred for Gary and Mary West, Hit Show has already won over nine furlongs, having scored in the GII Withers. S. at Aqueduct back on Feb. 11. He made a rail run to gradually grind down the leader with incremental, focused gain. No one was firing at him in the stretch, so he was able to pad his lead inside the final furlong to open up by 5 1/2 lengths at the wire.

Coming off an eight-week layoff, he'll spar for favoritism in the Wood with fellow Brad Cox stablemate Slip Mahoney while trying to add to an ascending Beyer pattern of 60-71-82-91 from four lifetime starts.

12) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy)O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the
GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate had a no-excuse stalking trip in the Arkansas Derby, forcing the issue on the front end. He was second and bearing down on a sacrificial speedster, but Angel of Empire blasted off to his outside turning for home and this colt never mustered any true response to match that winning move. Reincarnate held on for third.

Right now he's ranked 13th for eligibility with 45 qualifying points. Expectations were high going into the Arkansas Derby because Reincarnate had persevered through a difficult trip when third in the GII Rebel S., and he figured to be rounding into the type of Derby contender who might be dangerous because of his lead-seeking tendencies and long, strong stride.

This $775,000 KEESEP grad has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer. But his most promising effort (a 95-Beyer GIII Sham S. win back on Jan. 8) is now three months in the rearview mirror. A turnaround is not out of the question, but Reincarnate must aim for several notches of improvement without the benefit of positive last-race momentum.

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