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The Unibet Champion Hurdle Stats

The Unibet Champion Hurdle (4:00 Cheltenham, Tuesday 10th March 2026) field has been finalized following the 24-hour declarations. With State Man and Constitution Hill both absent due to injury/retirement, the 2026 renewal is an open, high-class affair dominated by three elite mares and the progressive British hope, The New Lion.

The going is currently Good to Soft (Good in places) on the Old Course.

Key Trends (Last 12 Years)

1. The “Mare” Era (4/12): 33% of recent winners have been mares receiving the 7lb allowance. In this specific field, the top three in the betting are all mares.
2. Age (12/12): Every winner since 2013 was aged 6, 7, or 8. (The New Lion is 7; Lossiemouth is 7; Brighterdaysahead is 7).
3. Cheltenham Festival Form (10/12): Winners almost always have a previous win or top-three finish at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
4. Last Time Out (11/12): 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top two on their final start before Cheltenham.
5. Grade 1 Success (12/12): A previous Grade 1 win is a non-negotiable statistical requirement.

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Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. LOSSIEMOUTH (W.P. Mullins)

Trend Fit: Perfect. A 7-year-old mare (ideal age) with three previous Festival wins (Triumph and 2x Mares’). She receives the 7lb allowance and is unbeaten at Cheltenham.
Verdict: She is the “statistical lock.” Although beaten by Brighterdaysahead on heavy ground at Leopardstown, the return to Good to Soft and her flawless course record make her the primary trend pick. The application of first-time cheekpieces is a classic Mullins “sharpening” move.

2. THE NEW LION (Dan Skelton)

Trend Fit: Strong. A 7-year-old who won the Turners at this meeting last year. He is 5-for-5 in completed hurdle starts and won the Unibet Hurdle (Trials Day) on this course in January.
Verdict: He is the best of the “boys” and fits the “improving Grade 1 winner” trend perfectly. He is the main threat to the mares, especially with the Skelton yard’s exceptional strike rate this season.

3. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (Gordon Elliott)

Trend Fit: High Class. A 7-year-old mare who beat Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out.
Verdict: While she is technically the “form” horse after her Leopardstown win, she has been beaten at the last two Cheltenham Festivals when sent off as favorite. Trends favor those with proven winning course form, which gives Lossiemouth the edge.

4. GOLDEN ACE (Jeremy Scott)

Trend Fit: Solid. The “defending champion” (won the 2025 renewal). She also won the Mares’ Novice at the 2024 Festival.
Verdict: She is a course specialist. While she capitalized on falls from leaders last year, her recent Grade 1 win in the Fighting Fifth proves she belongs at this level. She fits the “previous winner” trend perfectly but may find the top two slightly speedier on this ground.

5. TUTTI QUANTI (Paul Nicholls)

Trend Fit: The “Improver.” A 6-year-old (ideal age) supplemented for this race after a dominant win in the William Hill Hurdle.
Verdict: He is following the “Espoir d’Allen” trend—a young, rapidly improving horse supplemented late. However, he lacks the Grade 1 experience that all 12 of the last winners possessed.

6. ALEXEI (Joe Tizzard)

Trend Fit: 6-year-old, won the Greatwood Hurdle on this course earlier this season.
Verdict: A smart handicapper making the leap to Grade 1. Statistically, horses stepping up from handicaps struggle to beat established Grade 1 mares.

7. PONIROS / ANZADAM (W.P. Mullins)

Verdict: Both are 5/6-year-olds from the Mullins yard but were soundly beaten by the principals at Leopardstown. They fit the trainer trend but fall short on the “Last Time Out” and “Class” metrics.

8. WORKAHEAD (Henry de Bromhead)

Verdict: An 8-year-old outsider. While the trainer is a Champion Hurdle specialist (Honeysuckle), this horse’s recent form (50/1) is well below the required trend rating of 150+.

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Final Trend-Based Ranking

1. Lossiemouth (Course form, 7lb allowance, and perfect age)
2. The New Lion (Best male prospect, unbeaten when completing, course winner)
3. Brighterdaysahead (Elite form, but lacks a Cheltenham win)
4. Golden Ace (Defending champ, but faces a tougher task this year)
5. Tutti Quanti (The interesting improver for place purposes)
6. Alexei (Best of the longshots due to course form)

Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase Stats

Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) Trend Analysis: Final Order of Preference

With Romeo Coolio now confirmed for the Brown Advisory on Wednesday, here is the updated ranking for the 2:00 Arkle based on the latest 24-hour declarations and the drying ground conditions.

1. KOPEK DES BORDES (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Neutral/Positive. While he has form on soft, his high-cruising speed is ideally suited to Good to Soft.
Trend Match: The 6-year-old fits the “Supreme winner to Arkle” trend perfectly. With the extended run-in, his proven stamina from his hurdle days gives him the edge.
Verdict: He is the most complete trend pick for a race of this stature.

2. LULAMBA (Nicky Henderson)

Ground Impact: Very Positive. Henderson’s stars almost always prefer “Good” in the description. This ground allows him to use his slick, flat-racing-style jumping.
Trend Match: Still faces the “5-year-old” statistic (0 wins in 15 years), but his OR 163 is 5lbs clear of the field.
Verdict: The ground has moved in his favor. If he handles the hill after the long run-in, he could easily break the age trend.

3. KARGESE (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Positive. She thrived on Good to Soft when winning here last year.
Trend Match: A 6-year-old mare receiving a 7lb allowance. Her close second in the Irish Arkle is now the strongest piece of “trial” form left in the race.
Verdict: The most reliable each-way bet in the race. She is statistically “due” a win given the strength of the Irish Arkle form line.

4. STEEL ALLY (Sam Thomas)

Ground Impact: Negative. His best performances have come on deeper ground (Soft/Heavy). The drying surface might make this too much of a speed test for him.
Trend Match: An 8-year-old, which is slightly older than the ideal 6-7 bracket.
Verdict: A progressive jumper, but the ground and age trends suggest he may struggle to match the gears of the top three.

5. JAX JUNIOR (Lucy Wadham)

Ground Impact: Neutral.
Trend Match: 7-year-old, won a Grade 2 last time.
Verdict: His rating (146) is simply too low. Trends show winners are almost always rated 150+.

6. IRISH PANTHER (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Unknown.
Trend Match: Late addition to the primary contenders. While he represents Mullins, he lacks the Graded chase win that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Verdict: Likely a pace-setter for his stablemates.

7. HANSARD / MAMBONUMBERFIVE

Verdict: Both are massive trend outsiders. Hansard is poorly handicapped on chase ratings, and Mambonumberfive is a 5-year-old with jumping concerns that the long run-in will likely exploit.

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Final Ranking Summary

1. Kopek Des Bordes (Perfect age/trainer/stamina profile)
2. Lulamba (Class standout; ground suits, but age trend is the worry)
3. Kargese (Strongest form line + weight allowance)
4. Steel Ally (Sturdy but potentially outpaced)

The weather and ground report for tomorrow, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, have significantly clarified the picture for the Arkle. After a dry period and selective watering by Clerk of the Course Jon Pullin, the official going is now Good to Soft (Good in places).

The forecast for Tuesday is mainly dry with sunny intervals and highs of 14°C, though some light drizzle remains a possibility. Crucially, the final flight on the Old Course has been moved closer to the home bend due to wet patches earlier in the winter, creating a longer run-in that will test stamina and jumping fluency under pressure.

Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle Stats

Analysing the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1:20 Cheltenham, Tuesday 10th March 2026) using the 12-year statistical trends identifies a very specific profile.

Historically, the winner is a 5 or 6-year-old who won last time out, is Irish-trained (specifically by Willie Mullins), and possesses an official rating (OR) near or above 150. .

The 2026 field features a standout trend-match in Old Park Star, but several Irish raiders fit the “Mullins/Elliott improver” mould that often strikes in this race.

Key Trends (Last 12 Years)

* Age (11/12): 5 and 6-year-olds dominate. (Only Appreciate It won as a 7yo).
* Trainer (9/12): Either Willie Mullins (6 wins) or Nicky Henderson (3 wins).
* Last Run (10/12): Finished 1st or 2nd on their previous start.
* Class (11/12): Had won a Graded race or a highly competitive maiden/novice.
* Rating (9/12): Typically requires a performance rated 148-153+ .

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Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. OLD PARK STAR (Nicky Henderson)

* Trend Fit: Strongest profile. A 6-year-old coming off a dominant 18-length win in the Grade 2 Rossington Main. His OR of 151 puts him exactly in the “150+ winner” bracket.
* Verdict: He has “Constitution Hill” vibes—unbeaten since joining Henderson and values-wise the best British hope in years. He hits almost every trend, including the Henderson-specific “top-class novice” metric.

2. MIGHTY PARK (W. P. Mullins)

* Trend Fit: 5-year-old, Irish-trained by the race’s most successful trainer. Won his last race (maiden) by 38 lengths.
* Verdict: While he lacks Graded experience, Mullins often brings a “hidden” superstar here (like Vautour or Douvan). His pedigree (related to Might Bite) and the style of his Fairyhouse win suggest he is the primary Irish trend-pick.

3. EL CAIROS (Gordon Elliott)

* Trend Fit: 6-year-old, won last time out at Thurles. Importantly, he was traveling like the winner in a Leopardstown Grade 1 before falling.
* Verdict: Elliott’s runners often thrive on the “redemption” trend. He has the high-cruising speed required for a Supreme and fits the age and trainer profile perfectly.

4. TALK THE TALK (Joseph O’Brien)

* Trend Fit: Proven Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown. Rated 153 , which is the highest-rated trend-match in the field.
* Verdict: Historically, the Leopardstown winner has the best conversion rate in the Supreme. He is the most seasoned of the Irish runners and fits the “class” trend better than any other.

5. LEADER D’ALLIER (W. P. Mullins)

* Trend Fit: 5-year-old French recruit. Won his last start at Punchestown.
* Verdict: He follows the “French-bred Mullins improver” trend (Klassic Dream style). He might be second-string in the betting but is a massive statistical threat.

6. SOBER GLORY (P. Hobbs & J. White)

* Trend Fit: 6-year-old, prolific winner (6 of 7 starts). Rated 148 .
* Verdict: A rare high-class British front-runner. While the yard doesn’t have the same Supreme strike rate as Mullins, he fits the rating and “won last time out” trends perfectly.

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Final Trend-Based Ranking

1. Old Park Star (Maximum trend match: Top rating, Henderson-trained, 6yo)
2. Mighty Park (Trainer trend plus high potential/Mullins factor)
3. Talk The Talk (Class trend: Proven Grade 1 Irish winner)
4. El Cairos (Speed and trainer profile match)
5. Leader D’allier (French-bred improver trend)
6. Sober Glory (Best of the rest; fits rating and form metrics)

Statistical “Avoid”: Eachtotheirown (7-year-olds have a poor record) and Sageborough (rated too low at 126 to match the class trend).

Win £250,000 With BetMGM’s Golden Goals Handicap Class 5 Newcastle 18.15

Win £250,000 With BetMGM’s Golden Goals Handicap (Class 5) Newcastle 18.15:

Jesmond Dawn merits top billing after a valiant near-miss here over this precise course and distance last month, where he quickened purposefully to lead inside the final furlong before just being caught in the dying strides.

That effort, on the all-weather surface where he has consistently raised his game, highlighted his sharp current condition and suitability for these testing bends, and with just a minor penalty to carry, he appears primed to go one better in this field.

His experience in handling moderate gallops adds to his appeal, particularly from a midfield draw that should allow him to stalk the pace without undue expenditure.

King’s School commands respect following a battling victory over seven furlongs at Newcastle in late December last year, where he saw off a subsequent winner with evident relish after travelling comfortably throughout.

He has shown a marked affinity for this tapeta track, with all his best efforts emerging under standard conditions, and his ongoing fitness from a winter campaign suggests he remains a potent force at this level.

Flying Fletcher arrives on the back of a respectable fifth over six furlongs here earlier this month, keeping on gamely despite being denied a clear run at a crucial stage.

That run offered clear evidence of his well-being on the all-weather, where he has notched prior successes, and the step up in trip should unlock more from his grinding style, especially given his low draw that favours an economical passage.

Bobby Joe Leg has endured a leaner spell lately, with a sixth-placing at Southwell in early April representing his most recent effort of note before a summer break.

He boasts a strong record around these turns, including multiple triumphs over similar distances on tapeta, and a freshened-up return could see him revive if the surface suits his renewed vigour.

Gressington shaped with encouragement when third at Redcar 28 days ago, staying on strongly in the closing stages of a seven-furlong handicap despite racing prominently in a race lacking pace.

His all-weather exploits have been laced with promise, particularly at tracks with undulations like this, and with proven stamina at the trip, he holds every chance to build on that grit from a handy stall.

Asian Journey enters after a subdued showing at Ffos Las in early July, where he faded having shown early dash over a mile that stretched his limits.

However, he has flashed snippets of ability on all-weather surfaces in novice company, and a drop into handicaps for the first time could coax improvement if the leaders set a stronger rhythm.

Novak has been consistent without quite striking lately, filling tenth over six furlongs here in November after a tardy break from the gates that cost him dearly.

His recent second at Southwell over this distance confirmed his affinity for tapeta, and with regular action keeping him race-fit, he remains competitively handicapped to challenge if breaking sharper.

The Cookstown Cafu has course form to call upon, having placed here previously, but his latest tenth over six furlongs 10 days ago suggested the return to sprinting didn’t quite suit.

He copes well with standard going from past efforts, and the return to seven furlongs might elicit a more fluent display, though greater sharpness will be needed.

Bajan Bandit endured traffic issues when eighth over course and distance last month, but he kept on late once in the clear, hinting at retained ability.

His all-weather record is solid, with prior placings underscoring his track suitability, and a more patient ride could see him rally better in this company.

Maxi Boy laboured to last in a higher-grade affair here over seven furlongs in November, beaten a long way after being hampered in running.

He has the tools to do better on tapeta, but his recent lack of fluency tempers expectations without signs of a revival.

Wilde And Dandy faces a stiff task on the evidence of recent toils, with a distant finish at Wolverhampton last out offering little cheer.

The all-weather holds no fears, yet his current enthusiasm appears waning in handicaps.

Simulation Results:

Jesmond Dawn: 23.67% (implied 15/4).

King’s School: 17.89% (implied 9/2).

Flying Fletcher: 15.45% (implied 11/2).

Gressington: 12.34% (implied 7/1).

Novak: 10.23% (implied 8/1).

Bobby Joe Leg: 9.11% (implied 10/1).

Asian Journey: 6.78% (implied 14/1).

The Cookstown Cafu: 4.53% (implied 21/1).

Bajan Bandit: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Maxi Boy: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Wilde And Dandy: 0.00% (implied N/A).

The best bet is Jesmond Dawn, his track mastery and closing kick affording him the acme in the model.

Value selections spotlight Gressington at 9/1 live, undervalued relative to 7/1 implied odds considering his recent staying power.

Steamer bets nominate King’s School and Flying Fletcher, both with live prices (4/1 and 9/4) shortening from early marks (9/2 and 5/1) while featuring among the elite projections.