The Haiku Handicapper Presented By NYRA Bets: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Time to analyze the 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku; a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.

To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.

#1 – Tripoli
Clearly loves Del Mar
Not facing West Coast patsies
This isn't his crowd

#2 – Express Train
His Del Mar triumph
Was a few stops ago now
Not sure he's got it

#3 – Hot Rod Charlie
Season of “almosts”
Culminates with a home game
Absolutely live

#4 – Essential Quality
The likely soph champ
Will the West Coast ship negate
His surplus of class?

#5 – Knicks Go
Fraction controller
Horse of the Year on the line
Should have no excuse

#6 – Art Collector
Lots of front-runners
Not all of them can endure
Seeing a step back

#7 – Stilleto Boy
Midwest to West Coast
Always brings his boxing gloves
Price play on bottom

#8 – Medina Spirit
Not the horse's fault
It'll be tough to feel good
If he wins the thing

#9 – Max Player
His ship's been righted
Just one start since July 4th
Might not be his race

Prediction
Which pace horse outlasts?
Knicks Go claims his spot on top
Eight and three follow

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This Side Up: A Showcase for Horses Born to Run

Now this, we can all agree, is just what a GI Longines Breeders' Cup Classic should look like. Three of the first four in the Derby, albeit not the one that may ultimately be credited as winner. And besides resolving the questions left open by that processional race at Churchill, they must also pick up the gauntlet thrown down by an older horse whose plain running style should leave no stone of merit unturned. A race, in other words, commensurate with the biggest prize of the American Turf, with the laurels of Horse of the Year very possibly on the line, too.

To connections of the nine involved, then, congratulations. Even in getting to the gate, you've basically achieved everything that drives the perennial investment of billions into the improvement and nurture of the breed. That being so, however, the composition of the field asks some pretty challenging questions of the bloodstock industry.

Sure, it can point to a functioning paradigm in Essential Quality: a son of the elite stallion Tapit, bred by the biggest investor in Turf history from the daughter of a mare bought for $3 million. But the rest of the field does not support perceived commercial values anything like so sturdily.

Favorite Knicks Go has brought Paynter back from brink, his current juveniles having graduated from a book of 34 covers in 2018, but he is still only $7,500–at which fee Hot Rod Charlie's sire Oxbow received just 28 mares this year. Medina Spirit, son of an even cheaper sire in Protonico, famously changed hands for $1,000 as a yearling. Max Player's sire Honor Code, shockingly, barely surpassed even Oxbow's book this spring despite also producing from his first crop the only colt ever to beat the 2021 Horse of the Year.

Art Collector is by one of the most precocious broodmare sires in history, but the yearling market had become so disenchanted with Bernardini that the last crop sold before his death, conceived at $85,000, achieved a median of $38,500. Tripoli is a dirt outlier for Kitten's Joy, whose lack of commercial recognition has long been symptomatic of the witless treatment of turf stallions in Kentucky. Stilleto Boy is by Shackleford, exiled to Korea last year. That leaves Express Train as the only runner, bar Essential Quality, by a stallion with any claim to making sense of the market's operation: Union Rags had a book of 164 last year, though it must be acknowledged that he presumably only maintained that traffic by having his fee halved to $30,000.

If this is our idea of a horse race, then, it vividly rebukes the familiar, dismal disjunction between sales ring and racetrack. Logically, there should be nothing more commercial than breeding winners. But most matings are planned with only one moment in mind: not post time for the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the fall of a gavel.

You can't blame commercial breeders, really. It's a tough business, and a lot of things can go wrong with these delicate young animals. The fault rests with those directing investment, the agents and advisors who would rather urge their wealthy patrons to buy a yearling by the latest unproven rookie than one by an Oxbow or a Paynter.

Filly & Mare Sprint entrant Bella Sofia is by the same sire family as Hot Rod Charlie and Knicks Go | Breeders' Cup/Eclipse Sportswire

Oxbow and Paynter! If you want “run”, well, it runs in the family. These sires are both by Awesome Again out of daughters of the freakish Cee's Song (Seattle Song), also mother of the dual Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow (plus two other Grade II winners) from her serial trysts with Cee's Tizzy. And don't forget that Oxbow's brother Awesome Patriot gave us Bella Sofia, the principal rival to Gamine (Into Mischief) in the GI Filly and Mare Sprint. So here we have three stallions from the same dynasty, all perceived as lacking commercial allure, all with Grade I winners eligible to win on the day that best measures the endeavors of a multi-billion-dollar industry.

Awesome Patriot admittedly earned his chance at stud sooner by pedigree than performance, but the same is true of Outflanker, the Maryland stalwart (by Danzig out of a half-sister to Weekend Surprise) who contested 10 maidens without success–and who surfaces as damsire of Knicks Go.

Bella Sofia was found for just $20,000 at OBS last summer. Knicks Go was co-bred by Sabrina Moore and her mother Angie when they had a total of three mares. And Hot Rod Charlie, as we've often celebrated, was the very last horse sold by the peerless Bill Landes of Hermitage Farm from the families cultivated by his late patron Edward A. Cox, Jr.

Having made just $17,000 as a short yearling, Hot Rod Charlie could not reward his shrewd pinhookers past $110,000 despite the subsequent rise of half-brother Mitole (Eskendereya). That's a measure of the commercial renunciation of Oxbow, but at least it allowed his son to fall within reach of a multi-generational partnership, united by ageless enthusiasm, including a bunch of Brown University football alumni headed by the nephew of trainer Doug O'Neill. Some of these boys live and work in San Diego and to bring “Chuck” to their local track, a year after his insolent 94-1 challenge to Essential Quality in the GI Juvenile, offers just the kind of tale our sport could do with telling the outside world right now.

Hot Rod Charlie training at Del Mar | Breeders' Cup/Eclipse Sportswire

But success for Hot Rod Charlie would have no less redemptive potential within the business, too. Son of an exemplary speed-carrying scrapper, he is author of the fastest opening in GI Belmont S. history (and a half eclipsed only by Secretariat) while still locking horns so obstinately in the stretch that it was 11 lengths back to the Preakness winner in third. So bravo to Gainesway for investing in such granite. Apart from anything else, Tapit mares will be a fun match: Cee's Tizzy was by Relaunch, full-brother to Tapit's third dam.

Oxbow, for his part, had plenty of quantity in his early books but not so much quality. Sure, Calumet marches to its own drum, and a lot of commercial breeders will never fall in step. But at least this farm is setting a premium on those assets most eroded by the corner-cutting vices of our industry: constitution, durability, staying power. Because we need to start raising and racing horses that do not depend for their competitive ardor and longevity on medication, but on their genetic inheritance.

It's called the Breeders' Cup, remember. Not the Vendors' Cup. And its climax this year reminds us what we're supposed to be trying to breed. Milton famously ended a sonnet by observing: “They also serve who only stand and wait.” But that's all many horses today are bred to do: to stand on that dais and wait for board to light up. Okay, they have to walk nicely too. But run? A bonus, apparently.

So go get 'em, Chuck!

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Breeders’ Cup Breeze Report: Letruska Hooks Company at Del Mar

St. George Stable's Letruska (Super Saver), the expected favorite for the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff next week, had a somewhat eventful final breeze at Del Mar Saturday. Scheduled to work a solo five-eighths, the four-time Grade I winner broke off behind 2-year-old filly Brandon'smylawyer (Astern {Aus}), and hooked that runner near the half-mile pole. The other filly continued on with Letruska, and finished her half-mile work several lengths to the good of Letruska, who was credited with five furlongs in 1:01.20 (2/7) (Click for video).

Brandon'smylawyer, a $340,000 OBS April grad, was most recently a headstrong sixth in the Surfer Girl S. earlier this month after winning on debut at Del Mar–she was credited with a half in :47.20 (3/25).

“I was not planning on company; it was not ideal,” said Letruska's exercise rider Roger Horgan. “She did relax. I was a bit concerned, but she switched off and I let her do it on her own. I was very proud of her the way she relaxed.”

Also among the dozen or so Breeders' Cup-bound workers Saturday at Del Mar was GI Classic contender Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow). The GI Pennsylvania Derby winner was paired up with 2-year-old maiden stablemate Khantaro d'Oro (Kantharos). He worked seven furlongs in 1:26.80 (1/1), clicking off splits of :47.80, 1:00.20 and 1:13 flat.

“I thought the work was visually impressive,” trainer Doug O'Neill said. “Charlie sat off his workmate and when Flavien [Prat] called on him, he responded well. He galloped out good and his energy was very high.”

O'Neill's GI Juvenile Turf runner Mackinnon (American Pharoah) worked six panels on the main track in 1:14.80 (1/1).

Other Breeders' Cup workers to stretch their legs at Del Mar Saturday included: Ain't Easy (Into Mischief), GI NetJets Juvenile Fillies, 5f in 1:01; Desert Dawn (Cupid), Juvenile Fillies, 5f in 1:00.60; Helens Well (Ire) (Kodi Bear {Ire}), GI Juvenile Fillies Turf, 5f in 1:00.60; Oviatt Class (Bernardini), GI TVG Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, 5f in :59.60; Proud Emma (Include), GI Filly & Mare Sprint, 5f in :59.80; Aloha West (Hard Spun), GI Qatar Racing Sprint, 4f in :47.20; Channel Maker (English Channel), GI Longines Turf, 4f in :48.40; Chaos Theory (Curlin), GI Turf Sprint, 4f in :48.20; and Horologist (Gemologist), GI Longines Distaff, 4f in :49.60.

Meanwhile, at Santa Anita, Classic-bound Tripoli (Kitten's Joy) prepared to return to the track and trip over which he took August's GI TVG Pacific Classic S. as he worked five furlongs in :59 flat (4/38).

“He's trained well,” conditioner John Sadler said. “He worked at 6:30 this morning at Santa Anita under heavy fog and he'll go to Del Mar very early Monday.”

There was more than just fog in Kentucky Saturday, and trainer Brad Cox opted to push back final pre-Breeders' Cup breezes at Churchill Downs for Classic-bound Essential Quality (Tapit) and Knicks Go (Paynter) and Distaff contender Shedaresthedevil (Daredevil) due to wet weather in Louisville.

He went ahead with plans to breeze GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies hopefuls Ready to Purrform (Kitten's Joy) and Turnerloose (Nyquist), who covered five panels in the slop together in 1:02.20.

“I think the track will dry out pretty well [Saturday] afternoon,” Cox said in the morning. “These three have an extra day in their schedule compared to Ready to Purrform and Turnerloose.” Click for more from Cox via KY HPBA.

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Tripoli Works At Santa Anita Ahead Of BC Classic Try

Tripoli, hindered by a wide trip and a moderate pace when fourth by 8 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif., on Oct. 2, could improve Saturday in the $6 million Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, Calif., where he won the “Win and You're In” TVG Pacific Classic by a length and a quarter at 6-1 on Aug. 21

“He's trained well,” John Sadler said of the four-year-old Kitten's Joy colt owned by principal client Hronis Racing, LLC. “He worked at 6:30 this morning at Santa Anita under heavy fog and he'll go to Del Mar very early Monday.

“The rider (Juan Leyva) had him in 59 (for five furlongs) and out in (one) 11 and four (for six furlongs). He has a little watch that he can tap during the work.

“There will be no recorded times for anything that worked at 6:30. It was as heavy a fog as anything we've seen.”

Santa Anita clockers did give Tripoli an official five-furlong clocking of 59 flat.

As for strategy in the Classic, Sadler said with a chuckle,

“It doesn't look like there will be any lack of pace.”

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