Andrew Warren and Rania Warren's dual stakes-placed Raise Cain, who is tabbed at 30-1 odds on the morning line, will vie to upset an overflow field in Saturday's Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham for sophomores traveling a one-turn mile at Aqueduct Racetrack.
The Gotham, which awards 50-20-15-10-5 qualifying points towards the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby to the top-five finishers, is part of a stacked Saturday card at the Big A that co-features the $200,000 Busher, a 50-20-15-10-5 Kentucky Oaks qualifier, and the Grade 3, $150,000 Tom Fool Handicap for older horses.
Trained by Ben Colebrook, Raise Cain was last seen finishing a distant fifth in the one-mile Leonatus on January 21 over the Turfway Park synthetic where he tracked in fifth before making a mild bid at the three-quarters call to improve to third position. The son of Violence came under urging from Luan Machado but retreated at the top of the stretch and was defeated 7 1/2 lengths by Funtastic Again.
“He's doing good and he got there in good shape. He trained at Belmont this morning and everything is A-OK,” said Colebrook. “We tried the [synthetic] because it's what we're running on at home and I thought he might like it, but he didn't really have the same kick at the end of his races, so we are going back to the dirt.”
Raise Cain, who was assigned post 12 in rein to Jose Lezcano, is in search of his first stakes victory after earning two stakes placings as a juvenile in the Bowman Mill at Keeneland [third] and the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds Race Course [second]. The former effort came just 20 days after an impressive second-out maiden coup sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland, winning by 5 1/4 lengths after pouncing from third-of-nine in the turn. The bay colt completed the race in 1:25.07 and improved greatly from a debut eighth-place finish in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden tilt in September at Churchill Downs.
“He always touted himself in the mornings like he was a pretty decent horse,” said Colebrook. “He ran first time and needed the race, and then he came back and validated what we'd been seeing in the mornings. We ran him back a bit quick and I think he does need a little more spacing between his races. He ran good at Fair Grounds and he came out of that well. Obviously, the [synthetic] race didn't work out well, but now we're excited to get him back on the dirt hopefully for a good performance.”
Colebrook said that while the colt was not a physically imposing juvenile, he has always shown great mental maturity.
“He wasn't a really big, strong horse as a 2-year-old – he was kind of lighter-framed and a little narrow,” said Colebrook. “He's filled out and put weight on now. I think his biggest and strongest attribute is his mind. He never gets worried, he travels well and ships good, and for a 3-year-old, that's a big thing because a lot of the time you're going all over the place to find the right races for them. He can take his show on the road.”
Colebrook added that Raise Cain's level-headedness, along with the fact that he has already earned black type when shipping, gave him the confidence to make a trip to the Empire State.
“We were trying to find something back on the dirt and were thinking of a '1X' at Oaklawn, but this race came up first,” Colebrook said. “He shipped [for the Gun Runner] and it didn't take a lot out of him. He did everything right at Fair Grounds and we hope he can do that here.”
With plenty of early speed expected from the likes of Carmel Road and Eyeing Clover, Colebrook said Raise Cain could be poised to create an uproar with a late run in the stretch on Saturday.
“I don't think his post matters as much in the one-turn mile. I would rather have his post with his running style than the 1 or the 2,” said Colebrook. “With that long run down the backside, the race should run fairly quickly up front and hopefully he doesn't have to go super wide. This race sets up well because there's a lot of speed in there and he broke his maiden around one turn, so hopefully he can be rolling late and work out a good trip. He's got a good jockey on him, so we're excited.”
A $180,000 purchase at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Raise Cain is out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle, a half-sister to the multiple graded stakes-winning millionaire and 2010 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Unrivaled Belle. He boasts $103,578 in total purse earnings from a record of 5-1-1-1.
OXO Equine's Transect will look to announce his presence on the Kentucky Derby trail in Saturday's Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham, at Aqueduct Racetrack. The one-turn mile for sophomores offers 50-20-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top-five finishers.
Trained by Paulo Lobo, the Gun Runner colt enters from a pair of wins sprinting 6 1/2-furlongs over Tapeta at Turfway Park – a debut score from off-the-pace on January 20 ahead of a gate-to-wire effort last out on February 10.
“He won both times and we really liked the way he won,” Lobo said. “The way that he galloped out last time, I think he is going to enjoy the mile.”
Transect has trained regularly over the dirt surface at The Thoroughbred Center in Lexington, Kentucky, including a five-eighths effort in 1:01.40 on Feb. 25.
“He works very well on it, so we made the decision to try the dirt this time,” Lobo said.
Lobo will be looking for his first Big A stakes score since Pico Central captured the 2004 Grade 1 Carter Handicap at the Big A as part of a memorable campaign that included Grade 1 wins in the Vosburgh and Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park.
“I remember that day well, it was very cold. Tapit won the Wood Memorial that day,” recalled Lobo. “Pico Central was a very good horse. He was the type of horse that makes us happy to get up in the morning.”
Joe Talamo will pilot Transect from post 7 on Saturday as part of an overflow field that includes a number of stretch-out speed types, but Lobo said he will leave strategy in the jockey's capable hands.
“He has a good post in the middle, but that's a decision Joe Talamo is going to have to make,” Lobo said. “I know it's a deeper race, but I am confident he is going to run well over there.”
The $300,000 purchase from the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale is out of the A.P. Indy mare Divine Escapade, who is a half-sister to Grade 1-winner Mi Sueno.
Lobo trains a number of potential Kentucky Derby contenders for Larry Best's OXO Equine, including Bromley, who is entered in Saturday's John Battaglia Memorial, a 1 1/16-mile test at Turfway Park that offers 20-8-6-4-2 qualifying points to the top-five finishers.
The Mastery colt graduated on debut in November at Churchill Downs ahead of a sharp optional-claiming score sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs in December at Turfway Park. He stretched out to 1 1/16-miles last out in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds and, after missing the break, he attended the early pace before faltering to a distant fifth.
“That day he did not break and he stumbled a little bit. He was very rank. I think we need to forget this race,” Lobo said. “He has been training super for this race and he knows the track. He won the first condition allowance here and the distance is not going to be a problem. He's doing very well.”
A $450,000 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale weanling purchase, Bromley is out of the Malibu Moon mare Go Go Dana, who is a half-sister to graded-stakes winner Liam's Dream. Bromley will leave post 10 under Gerardo Corrales.
OXO Equine's Event Detail finished 10th with Corrales up in Saturday's Grade 2 Rebel contested at 1 1/16-miles over a sloppy and sealed main track at Oaklawn Park.
The City of Light sophomore had entered from a 2 3/4-length graduation traveling one-mile at Turfway Park that garnered an 80 Beyer, but Lobo said the colt failed to handle the wet going in Arkansas.
“I think he hated the mud. The jockey said after the first half-mile the horse was done,” Lobo said. “He had very good numbers going into this race – good Beyers and good Ragozin numbers. He won very impressive here but he hated the mud, so let's regroup.”
OXO Equine's Itzos was last seen finishing seventh in the one-mile Leonatus on January 21 at Turfway Park. The Bolt d'Oro 3-year-old, out of the graded-stakes placed Roar mare Lotta Kim, is a half-brother to 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.
“He was a little sick after this last race and he's had a few works since, but we haven't decided on anything yet for him,” Lobo said.
Itzos, purchased for $1.4 million at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, graduated at second asking sprinting 6 1/2-furlongs on December 29 at Turfway Park, besting next-out winner Brazen Boy by 1 1/2-lengths.
Lobo said a decision will be made in one month's time on whether or not Bonne Chance Farm and Stud R.D.'s Grade 1-winner Ivar will return to racing action.
The 7-year-old Brazilian-bred son of Agnes Gold was a closing second last out, finishing three-quarters of a length back of Atone in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on January 28 at Gulfstream Park.
“He ran a very good race, but not enough to win it,” Lobo said. “He has been awesome for us. He's always with Grade 1-winners. He's run in 11 Grade 1s and he has never disappointed us. He's a special horse.”
Ivar, who captured the 2020 Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, boasts a record of 16-6-3-2 for purse earnings in excess of $1.5 million. He has made nine appearances in Grade 1 tilts in North America for a record of 1-3-1, in addition to taking a pair of Group 1 races in 2019 in Argentina before moving to Lobo's care in Kentucky.
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will seek to make an already lucrative Championship Meet even more fruitful Saturday at Gulfstream Park, where he is slated to saddle Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.'s Rocket Can and Peachtree Stable's Shadow Dragon for starts in the $400,000 Fountain of Youth (G2).
The Fountain of Youth, a dress rehearsal for the $1 million Curlin Florida Derby (G1), will be featured on a 14-race program with nine stakes, eight graded. The 1 1/16-mile stakes for 3-year-olds will offer 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby to the winner.
Mott is atop the purses-won standings for trainers with $2,691,095 with huge assists from Art Collector, who captured the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) Jan. 28 and Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon, who finished 1-2 in the $250,000 Holy Bull (G3) Feb. 4.
“Even a blind sow can find an acorn once in a while,” Mott quipped. “We have been lucky, I guess. You have to have the right horses and we have been lucky enough to have a few of the right horses to take over there.”
There was nothing lucky about Rocket Can's triumph in the Holy Bull, in which he was forced to race four-wide under Junior Alvarado throughout the 1 1/16-mile stop on the road to the April 1 Florida Derby. The son off Into Mischief had every reason to weaken late, but he kicked in to open a lead in the stretch and held gamely to prevail over Shadow Dragon, who rallied from last under Jose Ortiz at 34-1 odds.
The water gets a lot deeper in the Fountain of Youth as the Mott 3-year-olds will be facing Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable's Forte, last year's Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old colt. Forte, making his first start of the season, is the 7-5 morning-line favorite in the field of 10.
“Obviously, Forte is a champion, so, naturally, he deserves to get all the attention,” Mott said. “We will run the race and hope we are good enough to get a little attention afterwards.”
Rocket Can notched his first graded-stakes victory in the Holy Bull while scoring as the 5-2 second choice and collected his second win in five starts.
Shadow Dragon, a New York-bred son of Army Mule, was making only his third career start in the Holy Bull after breaking his maiden at first asking and finishing off the board in a stakes against state-breds.
“That was an interesting finish for him,” Mott said. “He ran extremely well.”
Shadow Dragon is 12-1 on the Fountain of Youth morning line; Rocket Can is 8-1.
The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is starting to ramp up, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.
After a one-week break, the Derby Bubble is back uninterrupted until the first Saturday in May. Each week, I'll have a list of my top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders, and the list is prone to changing significantly from one week to another.
This particular one contains several seismic shifts. We saw longshots win both the G2 Risen Star and the G2 Rebel, and several of Bob Baffert's top Kentucky Derby contenders are now eligible to earn Derby points after being moved to different barns. Next week's could look very different, too, given the trio of preps on tap this weekend across the country.
Let's dive in, shall we?
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Forte
Forte defeats Cave Rock in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile
It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, when he won three straight Grade 1 races (including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He's been working steadily ahead of his return, which comes in Saturday's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. If Forte has moved forward at all off of his Eclipse Award-winning campaign a season ago, the rest of this group has him to catch.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#2: Arabian Knight
Southwest winner Arabian Knight, with John Velazquez aboard
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Borealis Night (by Astrology)
Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
I mentioned two weeks ago that, had Arabian Knight been eligible to earn Derby points, he would not be lower than second. Now that he's able to do that, here he is. He's romped in two starts, including January's G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. That day's runner-up, Red Route One, came back to flatter this one a bit by running a close-up second in Saturday's Rebel. Arabian Knight may only have one chance to earn Kentucky Derby points, but it's likely he'll be a pretty heavy favorite in that outing.
Arabian Knight was bred in Kentucky by Corser Thoroughbreds, out of the unplaced Astrology mare Borealis Night. He sold to Scott and Evan Dilworth for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was purchased by Zedan Racing Stables for $2.3 million at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Borealis Night, a product of the Stonestreet Farm breeding program, was purchased by Corser Thoroughbreds with Arabian Knight in utero for $285,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.
#3: Instant Coffee
Bolt d'Oro colt Instant Coffee, with Luis Saez aboard, takes the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club
Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Gold Square LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 32
Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.
Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#4: Hit Show
HIt Show and Manny Franco en route to winning the G3 Withers
A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis, Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.
Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.
#6: Blazing Sevens
Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) and jockey Flavien Prat win the Champagne (Gr I) at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct Racetrack) 10/1/22. Trainer: Chad Brown. Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing, LLC
Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)
Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 16
Blazing Sevens didn't do a lot wrong during his 2-year-old season. He won one Grade 1 (the Champagne), finished third in another (the Hopeful), and ran fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after probably losing all chance at the start. He's been working steadily at Payson Park ahead of his 3-year-old debut, but that doesn't come in an easy spot. He'll tackle Forte (and several other prominent 3-year-olds) in the Fountain of Youth.
Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#7: Tapit Trice
Tapit 3-year-old Tapit Trice scores by eight lengths in a Gulfstream allowance-optional claiming race
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. His next start will almost certainly come against much stiffer competition, but if anyone can move a 3-year-old ahead in a hurry, it's Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#8: Angel of Empire
Angel of Empire winning the Risen Star under Luis Saez
Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)
Kentucky Derby points: 54
New to this list, Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.
Confidence Game tops the Derby leaderboard after his win in the Rebel, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward Saturday, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.
Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
#10: Rocket Can
Into Mischief colt Rocket Can, guided by Junior Alvarado, wins the G3 Holy Bull from stablemate Shadow Dragon
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull. Speed figures weren't kind to it, either, but Rocket Can did win while racing wide the whole way around the Gulfstream Park oval. Bill Mott's runners usually improve with experience, too, so while that prep was on the slow side, there may still be plenty to like here. We'll know more after the Fountain of Youth, which represents a much stiffer class test.
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
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Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.
Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.
#12: Red Route One
Red Route One breaks his maiden at Kentucky Downs, with Vincent Cheminaud aboard
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 33
Red Route One picked up another significant check on Saturday, when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.
Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, et al
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Like the horse immediately ahead of him on this list, National Treasure is still eligible for a first-level allowance, but he's put forth big efforts in big races. He was second to Cave Rock in the G1 American Pharoah and third behind Forte in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and I think his effort in the G3 Sham was fine. He got caught in some traffic that day and has every right to improve in Saturday's G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita.
National Treasure was bred in Kentucky by Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Treasure. He was purchased by the SF/Starlight/Madaket group for $500,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale. Treasure raced as a homebred for Blum, joining second dam Proposal, third dam Lady of Choice, fourth dam Chosen Lady, and fifth dam Mine Only as products of Blum's breeding program.
One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, and he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year. However, while time isn't necessarily on his side (he may only have a chance at one Kentucky Derby prep race), there's no denying this regally-bred colt's potential.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#15: Lugan Knight
Lugan Knight breaks his maiden at Keeneland on Oct. 21
Lugan Knight made the lead in the Jerome, and things looked dicey when Arctic Arrogance ranged up alongside him turning for home. However, this colt found more beneath Dylan Davis and fended off a runner that came back to run second in the Withers. Lugan Knight returns in Saturday's G3 Gotham, and he'll have his work cut out for him. He's part of a full field that could number as many as 14 horses.
Lugan Knight was bred in Kentucky by BG Stables, out of the winning Speightstown mare Sly Roxy. His second dam is two-time Canadian champion Roxy Gap.
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#16: Sun Thunder
Sun Thunder
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)
Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 24
Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.
Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.
#17: Arctic Arrogance
Arctic Arrogance wins the Sleepy Hollow Stakes, with Jose Lezcano aboard, during the Belmont at the Big A meeting.
Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He also ran second in both the Remsen (behind Dubyuhnell) and the Jerome (behind Lugan Knight). He'll miss Saturday's Gotham, however, due to an illness.
#18: Two Phil's
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 23
Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
#19: Curly Jack
Good Magic colt Curly Jack takes the 2022 Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs
Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)
Owner: Michael McLoughlin
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 17
Curly Jack stays on this list (albeit barely) despite a one-paced sixth in the Risen Star. I don't think he had the best of trips that day, and he's shown too much at Churchill Downs to dismiss should he make the Derby field. He won the G3 Iroquois, was second in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, and has a right to improve off of his 2023 debut (which doubled as his first start in nearly three months).
Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.
#20: Cyclone Mischief
Cyclone Mischief
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables, Castleton Lyons
Trainer: Dale Romans
Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Dale Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief earlier this year, and for good reason. His January allowance win, where he drubbed next-out Sam F. Davis winner Litigate by nearly six lengths, was outstanding. However, he was a non-threatening seventh as the 6/5 favorite in the Holy Bull. He makes for a fascinating study in Saturday's Fountain of Youth. If you like him, he'll be a price, but the waters are considerably deeper. Either way, we should know far more about him after that event.
Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
