Justify Commands Au$77,000 at Coolmore Australia

From TDN AusNZ

Two winners in the space of a few days made it timely on Wednesday for Coolmore Australia to reveal its 2023 Australian fee for Triple Crown winner Justify. The big chestnut will return for the spring at an all-time local high of AU$77,000 inc. GST ($51,271).

Justify is part of Coolmore's 15-strong roster this spring, returning after a 2022 hiatus when he didn't shuttle to Jerrys Plains. Previous to that, he had covered books in 2019, 2020 and 2021 at fees ranging from private to AU$55,000 inc. GST ($36,622) and AU$66,000 inc. GST ($43,947).

Justify's fee release coincided with a very good week for the stallion.

At Warrnambool on Wednesday, his 2-year-old son Scentify won on debut for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Last weekend, his smart filly Legacies maintained her unbeaten run for Peter Moody and Rosemont Stud when winning the Listed ANZAC Day S. at Sandown.

Both of these results follow a vintage start for Justify in Australia. The chestnut stallion is currently leading the first-season sires' table by earnings, with close to AU$1.8 million banked across 11 runners. His obvious star has been the Annabel Neasham filly Learning To Fly, who won the G2 Reisling S. and G3 Widden S. through the autumn.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Justify's Australian stats sit at two stakes winners from just 11 horses to the track, with four winners for seven wins. It's a very respectable record in a sharp amount of time. While Learning To Fly recovers from injuries sustained during the G1 Golden Slipper, Legacies has been put out with an eye to the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield in the spring.

In the meanwhile, Justify's return is very welcome to everyone at Jerrys Plains.

“We look forward to welcoming Justify back to Australia this season at a fee that we believe represents great value for breeders,” said Coolmore Australia's Colm Santry. “All the leading breeders want to use him and he will cover a select book of mares this spring.”

“Coolmore's confidence in Justify has been well-documented and it hasn't taken long for his progeny in Australia to hit the ground running, just like they did in the Northern Hemisphere.”

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Analysis: Which 2023 Kentucky Derby Horses Are Best Bred To Handle The Classic Distance?

Nobody knows how a horse is going to handle everything that comes with the Kentucky Derby.

Between the enormous sound from the grandstand that follows the field practically all the way around the track, to the lack of personal space for the horses during the walkover, to the 1 1/4-mile race distance, there is very little about what makes the Derby unique that can be practiced ahead of time under comparable conditions.

While we can't drill how a horse will handle the Derby's crush of humanity down to a single measurable, we do have a few pedigree hints as to which runners might be best bred to handle the classic distance for the first time.

Anecdotal evidence can be used to argue for or against any horse in any field, but a quantifiable way to measure just how capable a horse might be at holding their own in longer races is to examine the average progeny winning distance (AWD) for the sires and dams of each runner and compare them against each other.

AWD numbers are calculated by averaging out the distance of each race won by a horse's offspring. For example, leading sire Curlin's AWD of 7.64 furlongs means the average race distance of the 2,082 lifetime wins accumulated by his runners was a bit over 7 1/2 furlongs. The higher a sire or dam's AWD, the more likely their foals can handle a route of ground, because they've already shown they can produce it consistently.

To compile these rankings, the AWD figures for both the sire and dam's foals are ranked amongst the full field (including also-eligibles, because Rich Strike made it so we can never leave them out again), and the lower the combined score, the better the runner stacks up against his or her opponents.

Keep in mind, this analysis is not necessarily a prediction of who will win the Kentucky Derby, but whose pedigrees suggest they will best be able to have something left in the tank in the final furlong. That could mean a winning trip, or it could indicate a longer-priced horse capable of passing tired rivals to hit the board at a long price. If your Derby wagers include second to fourth place, these numbers should definitely factor into your planning.

In previous years, high-odds horses who ranked at or near the top of the AWD rankings have included Derby runner-up Golden Soul (35-1) and third-place Battle of Midway (33-1), Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow (15-1), and narrow Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner (28-1).

Let's see who stands out among this year's Derby contenders…

We have a tie at the top, and both horses are connected to the Winchell Thoroughbreds program: Tapit Trice, by Winchell-raced sire Tapit, and the Winchell-owned Disarm,.

Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Tapit Trice is not a surprising name to see at the top of the list.

Tapit is without question the most proven North American distance sire of his generation, boasting a record four Belmont Stakes winners to his credit, and his average winning distance of 7.67 furlongs ranked him first among this year's class of Derby sires. He's still looking for his first Kentucky Derby winner, but he's gotten close with the likes of Essential Quality and Tacitus running third, and in older-aged campaigns, horses like Flightline and Cupid have had zero problem getting 1 1/4 miles at the highest levels of competition.

Tapit Trice is out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice, whose progeny AWD of 8.38 furlongs tied her for eighth among the Derby broodmares.

Tapit Trice is his dam's first winner, which is the case for nine of the 23 horses entered in this year's Derby, and 12 of the Derby mares have two or fewer starters. To reach that AWD mark the colt won a pair of races at one mile, along with wins at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles.

Here is a look at how the Derby sires shook out by AWD:

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Sharing the top spot in this year's AWD rankings is Disarm, a son of Gun Runner whose first crop achieved historic success, including 2022 Preakness Stakes winner in Early Voting.

However, Disarm reached this lofty spot because of his dam's AWD. Out of the stakes-placed Tapit mare Easy Tap, Disarm is one of four winners from her five foals to race, with a class-best AWD of 8.68 furlongs.

The bulk of that weight was carried by Venezuelan champion stayer Tap Daddy, by Scat Daddy, whose five Group 1 scores came at distances as far as 3,200 meters/15.9 furlongs/nearly two miles, in the G1 Clásico Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana.

Of the 19 combined victories by foals out of Easy Tap, 15 came at a distance of a mile or longer, which is more than any other broodmare in this year's Derby class. Disarm's lone contribution was actually one of the victories below that line, taking a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga Race Course.

Gun Runner finished eighth among the Derby sires, with an AWD of 7.29. Though the number puts him in the middle of the pack among the overall class, the resident of Three Chimneys Farm is by far the highest-ranking North American sire with three or fewer crops of racing age.

Because his oldest runners just turned four at the beginning of the year, they have not had access to the full schedule of two-turn opportunities to help grow that number, in the way an older sire might enjoy. With sires early in their careers, seeing a younger one score so highly is often a good sign that the number will float up over time.

Let's take a look at the list of Derby broodmares:

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Here are some other thoughts from these lists…

– Seeing where American-born, Japanese-based sires Mind Your Biscuits and Drefong landed in the sire rankings goes to show that intent and program can dictate as much of a sire's success as their ability to pass on talent.

Both of those stallions were one-turn animals during their time in the U.S., and it's fair to say that no one would have expected either to get a classic-caliber horse at any point in their careers if they'd remained stateside. Breeders would have likely sought to harness their raw speed and created a class of sprinters. However, because the Japanese broodmare population generally has a strong foundation, and their race distances tend to be longer than ours, their AWDs are practically off the charts for sires sending first-crop runners to the Derby.

– Into Mischief is the exception to the rule when it comes to AWD figures. His AWD is regularly among the lowest in a given class of Derby sires, and that's the case again in 2023 with a figure of 6.76 furlongs. However, Into Mischief is also the only sire in this class with two Derby winners: Authentic in 2020 and Mandaloun in 2021.

As a perennial leading sire of 2-year-olds who breeds large books of mares, Into Mischief gets a lot of winners early going around one turn, which heavily influences his AWD figure. These numbers are far from foolproof. If you see something on the page that goes against them, trust your gut.

– It's interesting to see that Tapit Trice is the only tippy-top-tier contender to finish at or near the top of the rankings (Derma Sotogake is on the fringe for both parts of that statement, if you feel he should be included, too). Assuming he gets a decent trip, I'd feel very good about making him a heavy factor in your horizontal exotics. Even if he doesn't win, he should be moving in the right direction when it counts.

With the exception of Forte, many of the last-start prep winners have either a sire or dam in the top half of their respective rankings, then one that isn't, suggesting those horses were bred to help add some distance to a part of the equation that was lacking.

– Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns is another higher-level contender who comes out of this list looking very good, tied for third in the overall standings, and having both sides of his pedigree represented in their respective top 10s. Sire Uncle Mo is proven in the Derby, getting 2016 winner Nyquist. He is the first winner from two runners out of Lady Tapit, who is part of a big movement of younger broodmares in this year's Derby class.

– Tapit Trice is a son of Tapit, while Disarm and Kingsbarns are out of Tapit mares, and all three ranked highly on the overall list. No matter what system you use to handicap the Derby, the Tapit factor might be the one pedigree angle I suggest you take with you.

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Albaugh’s ‘Heart Will Be A-Pumpin’ With Two Colts In Kentucky Derby

For a small racing state, Iowa will have a super-sized presence in Saturday's 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs with three horses owned by Ankeny's Dennis Albaugh entered in America's greatest race.

Leading the way in the $3 million Kentucky Derby is Angel of Empire, winner of Oaklawn Park's $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) in his last start. Angel of Empire, who will be ridden by Flavien Prat, drew post 14 and is the 8-1 third choice among the 23 three-year-old horses entered Monday for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. Albaugh — the mega-businessman and philanthropist who campaigns his horses with son-in-law Jason Loutsch in the name of their Albaugh Family Stables — also has Jace's Road guaranteed a spot in the 20-horse Derby field, with the Louisiana Derby third-place finisher drawing post 12 and assigned program odds of 50-1. Both are trained by Brad Cox.

Angel of Empire is third in the morning-line odds behind favored Forte, the Florida Derby winner and 2-year-old champion who is 3-1, and Tapit Trice, the 5-1 second choice off in Keeneland's Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

“Having the third favorite in the Derby is very exciting,” said Albaugh, who is chairman of the board of Iowa's only horse track, Prairie Meadows, serving as the horsemen's representative. “I love the way Angel closes. That's going to get really exciting Saturday, when you see all those legs come around that final turn. My heart will be a-pumpin' from the beginning to the end. But it really starts pumping on that last turn.”

The third Albaugh entrant, the Dale Romans-trained Florida Derby third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief, is No. 21 and needs one defection before early Derby wagering begins at 9 a.m. ET Friday in order to get in the starting gate.

Albaugh's Derby trio came out of only eight colts purchased as yearlings two years ago.

“We're really thankful for the hard work of our team,” said Loutsch, Albaugh Family Racing's racing manager. “They do a great job. This game is hard, really hard. We go to the sale every year and that's our goal: to get in the Kentucky Derby.”

Albaugh became hooked racehorse ownership when he campaigned the Iowa-based, Kelly Von Hemel-trained filly Miss Macy Sue from 2005-2008. Miss Macy Sue proved a prodigious broodmare for Albaugh, producing multiple Grade 1 winner Liam's Map and the sensational young sire Not This Time.

Then, as an investor in Des Moines-based Donegal Racing, Albaugh was a part-owner of Paddy O'Prado, who finished third in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Albaugh's focus ever since has riveted on the First Saturday in May, though he does buy and race fillies as he builds a broodmare band to support Not This Time as a stallion (and also to have female horses to name after his four granddaughters).

Albaugh Family Stables has run three prior horses in the Kentucky Derby: Brody's Cause was seventh in 2016, J Boys Echo 15th in 2017 and Free Drop Billy 16th in 2018. Thousand Words, owned by Albaugh and Spendthrift Farm, was scratched after flipping in the paddock of the COVID-delayed Derby held in September 2020.

In the 4-for-6 Angel of Empire, Albaugh will have his shortest-priced Derby starter to date. Yet that Pennsylvania-born colt was almost an after-thought purchase, certainly at the time not as highly regarded as Jace's Road or Cyclone Mischief.

“We come to the sales with a budget,” Loutsch said. “Dennis says, 'This is what we want to spend,' and we try to get the most under budget as we can. Thankfully, two years ago when we went to the sale, we felt like we were a colt or two short and I asked Dennis if I could buy one more colt and scour through books 4 and 5 (the catalogs later in the sale when horses are far cheaper). We came up with Angel of Empire.”

Jace's Road, purchased in partnership with West Point Thoroughbreds, cost $510,000 at Keeneland's 2021 September yearling sale. Cyclone Mischief had a $450,000 price tag, with breeder Castleton Lyons staying in as a partner. Meanwhile, Angel of Empire cost $70,000.

“You don't have a lot of expectations,” Loutsch said. “It was a numbers game. We wanted to get more colts we felt could get the classic distance. That's why this game is so cool. You just never know.

“… We've had our fair share of up and downs. But we really believe this year is our most legit chance to get there. If you had said back in 2010 when Dennis wanted to start this program that we'd get to buying 10 horses a year and we're the third favorite in the Kentucky Derby, it's a dream come true.”

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Kentucky Derby Update: Sun Thunder, Derma Sotogake Record Tuesday Workouts

Two entrants for Saturday's 149th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) put in half-mile works on a sunny Tuesday morning beneath the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs.

First to work during the 7:30-7:45 training window reserved for Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses was Hiroyuki Asanuma's Derma Sotogake (JPN) who covered the four furlongs in :49.60 under Masatoshi Segawa.

Following him was R. T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine's Sun Thunder. With jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard, Sun Thunder was timed in :47.80.

Hiroaki Arai's Mandarin Hero (JPN), who is an also-eligible for the Derby, worked five furlongs in 1:05.60 with Yuji Horita aboard.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE/HIT SHOW/JACE'S ROAD, VERIFYING – Trainer Brad Cox split his four Kentucky Derby contenders up for training Tuesday morning. Albaugh Family Stables' Angel of Empire and Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith and Michael B Tabor's Verifying went out at 5:15 a.m., while Gary and Mary West's Hit Show and West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables' Jace's Road went out at 7:30 a.m. All four galloped once around. Cox said they also will school in the starting gate Wednesday morning.

Albaugh Family Stables is returning to the Kentucky Derby for the first time since they were the co-owners of Thousand Words in 2020. They return as sole owner of Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire and co-owner of Jace's Road.

“We were talking last night at dinner that since the Arkansas Derby, it's been the longest four weeks of our life,” said Jason Loutch, the racing manager of Albaugh Family Stables. “It's all you think about, the excitement and trying to get here. Now that that we are here, it's really starting to hit us. We're excited for Saturday.

“I'm really happy. To have two runners is a huge accomplishment for our stable. The way Angel came out of the Arkansas Derby, Brad (Cox) thinks he's doing even better than before that race. Gives us a lot of optimism, but it's all about getting the right trip. We like our post positions.”

CONFIDENCE GAME – Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Stables' Confidence Game stayed in the barn and walked the shedrow Tuesday and then schooled in the paddock at 10:15 a.m., while his trainer Keith Desormeaux went to Keeneland to oversee his horses there.

CONTINUAR – Lion Race Horse Co. Ltd.'s Continuar (JPN) galloped a mile under Kazunari Yoshida after warming up in the mile chute during the first harrow break of the morning.

Continuar, who will be ridden in Derby 149 by Ryusei Sakai, drew post 20 for Saturday's Run for the Roses.

“I've been getting the outside draw in a lot of big races lately,” trainer Yoshito Yahagi said. “I feel like I am cursed. It isn't a good draw at all, but there is only so much we can do.”

DERMA SOTOGAKE – Hiroyuki Asanuma's Derma Sotogake (JPN) warmed up in the mile chute during the first harrow break of the morning and then breezed a half-mile in :49.60 with Masatoshi Segawa aboard.

Trained by Hidetaka Otonashi, Derma Sotogake will be ridden in the Derby by Christophe Lemaire. Derma Sotogake drew post 17 for the Derby.

“I think from the outside he will be able to take a decent position keeping an eye on the whole field in the early stages. He broke quickly from the gate the other day, so I think it won't be a problem,” assistant trainer Masanari Tanaka said.

DISARM – Winchell Thoroughbreds' Disarm had a scheduled walk day at trainer Steve Asmussen's Barn 38 Tuesday morning following his half-mile move in :49.20 Monday.

Disarm will break from post 11 in Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

“He's a very durable horse and I think the best is yet to come from him,” Asmussen said. “I think it's very obvious that the major players in this year's race lack a lot of early speed. I see a lot of jockeying in the first eighth of a mile. So I'm very curious what will happen in the early stages of the race.”

FORTE/KINGSBARNS/MAJOR DUDE/TAPIT TRICE – The Todd Pletcher Derby trio of Forte, Kingsbarns and Tapit Trice went trackside during their usual exercise time as part of the Derby/Oaks special training period from 7:30 to 7:45 at Churchill Downs on Tuesday morning.

Each of the trio galloped about a mile and three-eighths with their usual exercise riders aboard. That mean Hector Ramos handled Forte, Elder Flores was up on Kingsbarns and Amelia Green was aboard Tapit Trice.

Their Hall of Fame conditioner took it all in, then marched with them back to his Barn 39.

The threesome drew well at Monday's Derby Draw session. Race favorite (3-1) Forte will start from Post 15 with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the tack. Second choice (5-1) Tapit Trice drew Post five (Luis Saez), while Kingsbarns (12-1) and Jose Ortiz are right alongside in Post six.

“They'll all paddock school this afternoon,” Pletcher noted. “They'll be in with the horses from the sixth Race.”

LORD MILES – Vegso Racing Stable's Wood Memorial (G2) winner jogged one-mile Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs.

Lord Miles drew post 19 in Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

MAGE – Trainer Gustavo Delgado Sr. sent the Florida Derby (G1) runner-up to Forte out for a gallop with regular exercise rider J.J. Delgado. Javier Castellano will ride the son of Good Magic, owned by OGMA Investments LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH, out of the No. eight post position. He's 15-1 on the morning line.

“So far, so good,” said assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado Jr. “He definitely likes the cooler weather than it is in Florida.”

Mage will gallop each day heading into the Derby, with maybe a “higher tempo” exercise on Wednesday. He'll get some schooling in the starting gate on Thursday.

PRACTICAL MOVE/REINCARNATE – Following a pattern he set from right after he shipped to Churchill Downs last Saturday from California, trainer Tim Yakteen split his Kentucky Derby workers into an early one (Practical Move at 5:20 a.m.) and a later one (Reincarnate at 7:30 during the special Derby/Oaks training session) on a sunny Tuesday morning Louisville morning. That split allows exercise rider Baltazar Contreras to pilot each horse.

Both trainer and rider were happy with the mile and a quarter gallops the horses put in.

Yakteen also noted that his charges would visit the paddock during racing in the afternoon. That was scheduled to happen with the horses for today's 2nd Race.

RAISE CAIN – Andrew and Rania Warren's Raise Cain jogged two miles under Rene Morales for trainer Ben Colebrook and schooled in the paddock after training hours.

Raise Cain arrived at Churchill Downs Monday morning from Colebrook's main base at Keeneland. The Violence colt's appearance on the track this morning was not his first beneath the Twin Spires.

“He had his debut here, if you could call it that,” Colebrook said of the eighth-place finish in a 6 ½-furlong sprint. “He was so laid back and the light bulb had not gone on yet.”

Raise Cain, fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in his most recent start, drew post 16 for the Derby and will be reunited with Gerardo Corrales, who rode him in his first three starts.

ROCKET CAN – The Into Mischief colt, owned by Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, was back to galloping with regular exercise rider Guelser Cardona after Sunday's five-furlong breeze for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Junior Alvarado will ride Rocket Can, listed at 30-1 on the Derby morning line.

Rocket Can drew the No. 18 post position, the same spot from which Mott trainee Country House left the starting gate in 2019. Country House was declared the Derby winner by disqualification.

“I'm fine with it,” Mott said the morning after the draw. “You never know what a good post really is. You can have a bad trip from a good post. So I'm happy to be out there.”

SKINNER – As he did Monday in his first day on the track, trainer John Shirreffs took his Derby charge Skinner to the Churchill oval at 9 a.m. with a pony alongside and exercise rider Donnie Balthazar in the tack. They walked and jogged from the six-furlong gap to the paddock where the bay Curlin colt took a tour, then headed back to the track for a solid mile and one-half gallop out in the middle of the big strip

“He's settled in nicely and looked good galloping today,” his conditioner offered.

Skinner drew Post nine for Saturday's $3 million Kentucky Derby and will be handled for the first time by California's leading rider, Juan Hernandez.

SUN THUNDER – Trainer Kenny McPeek had his colt breeze four furlongs Tuesday morning, under jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who will ride him in the Derby.

With blinkers on, after starting off in :24, the R.T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine colt was clocked for the four furlongs in :47.80, before finishing up five furlongs in 1:01.40.

“It was just a maintenance half for him,” McPeek said. “Brian was happy with him. He was going evenly, that's what we wanted.”

Sun Thunder and Hernandez will leave the Derby starting gate from post position 13. He's listed at 50-1 on the Derby morning line.

Since 1995, McPeek has had eight Derby starters, with his best finish coming home second in his first try. Tejano Run finished 2 1/4 lengths behind longshot Thunder Gulch.

“I finished second in that race. So if you had asked me how 28 years later I still hadn't won it, you'd have to ask the question, how did that happen,” McPeek said. “It takes a certain amount of things lining up. You've gotta have the right horse, the right luck, the right jockey … a lot of things have got to come together.”

TWO PHIL'S – Exercise rider Gonzalo Gonzales took Two Phil's out for another spin on Tuesday, galloping 1 1/4 miles for the second straight day since arriving from Hawthorne.

“He was good,” Gonzales said. “He was a little nervous when we began, but once we got on the other side where there was more traffic, he was relaxed and liked his time standing there watching everything. He's been steadily improving (throughout the winter and spring).”

Trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Jareth Loveberry were on hand to watch the Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan, and Madaket Stable's Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner stretch his legs. Two Phil's will break from post four in the Derby.

“It looks like the closers all drew to his outside, so as long as he breaks well, we're in a good spot, and they can come down and get behind him,” Rivelli said.

“It looks like I'll be able to find a good trip,” Loveberry said. “My horse has tactical speed. I don't mind where we're at all. We'll have a good shot to track behind the two speed horses who drew to each side.”

ALSO-ELIGIBLES – Cyclone Mischief (No. 21), Mandarin Hero (No. 22) and King Russell (No. 23) all officially entered the Kentucky Derby on the also-eligible list.

Hiroaki Arai's Mandarin Hero warmed up in the mile chute during Tuesday morning's first harrow break and then worked five furlongs in 1:05.60 under Yuji Horita.

Following the work, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up visited the gate and the paddock.

Mandarin Hero is trained by Terunobu Fujita.

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