Time to analyze the 2023 Kentucky Oaks field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku; a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.
To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.
#1 – Mimi Kakushi
Showed grit in Meydan
Appreciate her patience
But class jump's daunting
#2 – The Alys Look
A big regression
When empty in Fair Grounds Oaks
Passing for this race
#3 – Gambling Girl
One-run deep closer
Still zeroing in her aim
Will gain placing late
#4 – Southlawn
Post-winter glow-up
But Churchill's her kryptonite
Which streak will be snapped?
#5 – Wonder Wheel
The 2-year-old champ
Has the body of a star
But her form's vanished
#6 – Botanical
Tapeta monster
Will have a say in fractions
Just not all of them
#7 – Wet Paint
Ruled over Oaklawn
Fits any profile you'd want
It all goes through her
#8 – Promiseher America
The Gazelle shocker
Getting good in a hurry
Are there more levels?
#9 – And Tell Me Nolies
Just cross out Faiza
And she could be the top pick
Keep on your radar
#10 – Flying Connection
New Mexico's best
Couldn't hack it it Del Mar
She'll be through early
#11 – Defining Purpose
Big Ashland surprise
Was getting caught in short stretch
Regression foreseen
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The Kentucky Derby is days away, which means it's time for detailed looks at the field with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
It's time for the final edition of The Derby Bubble. The field for the Run for the Roses is set, and with it comes plenty of speculation from fans and handicappers.
With that in mind, the season finale of this column will include a game called “Good Trip, Bad Trip.”
I'll examine all 20 runners, plus the three also-eligibles. Last year's column in this vein went over really well…right up until a horse I didn't write about drew in off the Also Eligible list and won the darn thing. Never let it be said I make the same mistake twice!
Enough talk; let's dive into the field.
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Hit Show
Candy Ride colt Hit Show, ridden by Manny Franco, captures the Withers
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)
Owners: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Good Trip: Hit Show has enough tactical speed to save a ground-saving spot going into the first turn. Not intimidated by the Derby distance, he's among the first set of horses to make their moves when the real running starts. He's not quite talented enough to win, but he avenges his tough beat in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by earning a big check.
Bad Trip: The rail compromises Hit Show and he's shuffled back in the early going. This puts the stalking-type up against it, and he struggles to gain forward momentum.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
#2: Verifying
Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)
Owners: Westerberg Limited, Magnier, Poulin, Smith, and Tabor
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Good Trip: Long considered one of the brightest prospects in a loaded Brad Cox barn, Verifying puts it all together. His speed is used as an asset by a rider who knows Churchill Downs as well as anyone, he hits the front turning for home, and unlike in the G1 Blue Grass, he doesn't get caught.
Bad Trip: Like one of his stablemates, the inside draw has the potential to work against him. Verifying doesn't break smoothly, and he's knocked out of his element from the jump (literally). This effort is less his sharp effort in the Blue Grass and more his clunker in the G2 Rebel.
Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.
#3: Two Phil's
Two Phil's (far outside right, Hard Spun) wins the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park on 3-25-23. Jareth Loveberry up, Larry Rivelli trainer, Patricia's Hope owner.
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owners: Patricia's Hope, Sagan, and Madaket Stables
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Good Trip: The Two Phil's we saw in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is the real deal. The synthetic track form comes with him to Churchill Downs, and he storms past the field turning for home to record a popular win for a group of Kentucky Derby first-timers. Furthermore, in keeping with widespread interest in Rivelli's barn, the classic commercial gets remade in HD and runs on all major television networks through the Preakness.
Bad Trip: Two Phil's bounces off of what was easily a lifetime-best effort. What we see Saturday is the horse that collected minor awards in Louisiana, and that type of effort doesn't get it done against the best of his crop.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
#4: Confidence Game
Confidence Game, James Graham aboard, following his Rebel Stakes victory
Owners: Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: James Graham
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Good Trip: Keith Desormeaux looks like a genius. Confidence Game shows no signs of rust coming off the bench, and the rest allows him the necessary time to develop as a racehorse. He's not good enough to win, but he adds another significant check to Desormeaux's Derby resume.
Bad Trip: The Confidence Game we saw win the G2 Rebel turns out to need a muddy track, which doesn't seem likely this weekend. A horse bred to love a wet track instead gets a fast one, which doesn't play to his strengths and leads to him being a non-factor.
Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
#5: Tapit Trice
Luis Saez guides Tapit Trice to a hard-fought victory over Verifying in the G1 Blue Grass
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 5-1
Good Trip: Tapit Trice gets off to a smooth start, unlike his last several outings. As a result, Luis Saez doesn't have to work so hard to ensure a smooth journey, and his mount's sheer talent can be put on full display. He runs to his pedigree, wins the Kentucky Derby, and provides a feel-good moment for co-owner Whisper Hill Farm, which lost champion Havre de Grace last week.
Bad Trip: Those gate issues flare up again at an inopportune time. Tapit Trice gets shuffled back in front of 150,000 screaming fans, and not even world-class reinsman Saez can navigate a winning trip in that scenario.
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#6: Kingsbarns
Flavien Prat guides Kingsbarns to a front-running Louisiana Derby triumph
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Good Trip: Kingsbarns finds himself up front with a slow early pace, in a carbon copy of his winning trip from the G2 Louisiana Derby. A near-certainty to be the biggest price of the three Todd Pletcher trainees despite his undefeated record, Kingsbarns hits the top of the stretch with plenty in reserve. He springs an upset that leaves many handicappers wondering how they didn't have an undefeated Pletcher on their tickets.
Bad Trip: Unlike in Louisiana, Kingsbarns has to face legitimate opposition up front early on. With Verifying to his inside and Derma Sotogake to his outside, Kingsbarns is hounded from the opening strides, never gets comfortable, and retreats going around the far turn.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#7: Reincarnate
Reincarnate and jockey Juan Hernandez win the G3 Sham
Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)
Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Masterson, et al
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velazquez
Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Good Trip: Reincarnate runs to his most recent work, a four-furlong bullet drill at Santa Anita. John Velazquez, who's rarely in the wrong place at the wrong time, gives his mount every chance. He's not good enough to win, but he finishes third or fourth at a big number.
Bad Trip: Reincarnate runs to his last start, where he needed to win a photo for third in the G1 Arkansas Derby to ensure his spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He's up close early but fades when the real running starts.
Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#8: Mage
Mage breaks his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park
Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)
Owners: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Good Trip: The phenomenon once known as the Apollo Curse is defied for the second time in less than a decade. Mage, who did not run as a 2-year-old, overcomes the gate issues that have plagued him in his two two-turn outings. In doing so, he gets the clean trip he didn't have in the G1 Florida Derby. That allows him to turn the tables on Forte and give his Hall of Fame rider his first-ever Kentucky Derby win.
Bad Trip: They're off, and Mage loses. Those gate issues prove tough to shake, and he once again spots his rivals several lengths right away. That, his inexperience, and the Kentucky Derby setting combine to form an insurmountable barrier.
Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#9: Skinner
Curlin colt Skinner kicks clear to break his maiden going a mile Feb. 12 at Santa Anita
Good Trip: A horse on the improve getting one of the hottest jockeys in the country puts it all together thanks to a closer-friendly race shape. Skinner sits back beneath Juan Hernandez, makes one big run, and lights up the tote board to give his conditioner a second Kentucky Derby victory (18 years after his first with another longshot, Giacomo).
Bad Trip: Skinner turns out to have some hang in him. He's called upon to make his move and passes several tired rivals, but starts spinning his wheels in midstretch and can't stay with the more well-bet horses in this particular race.
Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.
#10: Practical Move
Tim Yakteen with Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move
Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Good Trip: What's seen by some as a history of perfect trips turns out to be a perfect marriage between a horse with tactical speed and a rider who knows how to use it. He sits the stalking trip that wins a lot of Kentucky Derbies, pounces at just the right time, and has enough left to fend off the closers.
Bad Trip: Yep, everything fell into place in the last several races perfectly for this colt. Maybe he faces adversity, or perhaps he's just not a 10-furlong horse. However, he fades to finish in the middle of the pack and goes back to California to regroup.
Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.
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Good Trip: Team Epicenter returns with a less-fancied runner than the one they had a year ago, but they leave with a similar check. Disarm runs back to his Louisiana Derby effort, where he was the only horse making up ground in the stretch. He's not quite talented enough to threaten the winner, but he clunks up for second at a big price.
Bad Trip: Disarm's effort is closer to his run in the G3 Lexington, where he finished a distant third and earned just enough points to make the Derby field. Maybe the race shape isn't so closer-friendly, and maybe he's just not quite good enough to beat these.
Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.
#12: Jace's Road
Jace's Road, ridden by Florent Geroux, takes the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds
Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)
Owners: Albaugh Family Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Good Trip: One of the longer shots on the board serves as a pace factor in the early going. He presses the early leaders, gives his connections a brief thrill, and sets things up for a closer (possibly the stablemate breaking two stalls to his outside).
Bad Trip: Jace's Road doesn't come close to making the lead. He starts spinning his wheels going up the backstretch and comes up empty against the best horses of his generation.
Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.
#13: Sun Thunder
Sun Thunder
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)
Owners: R.T. Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Good Trip: …well, he's had a bunch of unlucky ones lately, hasn't he? On this occasion, though, Sun Thunder gets room to operate, along with plenty of pace for him to close into. He's not talented enough to win the race, but he cashes a big check for his connections and earns a spot in the hearts of those who use him at a huge number in tri's and super's.
Bad Trip: It's easier than ever to find trouble in a setting like this one, and Sun Thunder's trend of doing so rears up again. As a result, the late-running longshot is never seriously involved.
Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.
#14: Angel of Empire
Angel of Empire following his win in the Arkansas Derby
Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
Good Trip: A horse that's taken steps forward with every start this season takes another one. Angel of Empire sits a perfect trip beneath his world-class rider, and it's a carbon copy of the G1 Arkansas Derby. He loops the leaders going around the far turn, hits the top of the stretch in front, and powers home as much the best.
Bad Trip: The pace doesn't fall apart as much as his last two starts. Instead of closing into a race that's falling apart, the early pace factors have something left in the tank. As such, Angel of Empire's closing kick is nowhere near as effective, and he doesn't run to his billing.
#15: Forte
Forte passes Mage in deep stretch to win the Florida Derby (G1) under Irad Ortiz, Jr., to collect his sixth win in seven lifetime starts.
Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)
Owners: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 3-1
Good Trip: Forte does what he's done in every one of his last five starts: He wins. A closer with more tactical speed than it sometimes appears, Forte uses that speed to sit a dream trip a few lengths off the pace. Unlike in the Florida Derby, it's Forte who gets the jump on his rivals, rather than having to sit back, and turning for home, the rest of the field has the reigning 2-year-old champ to catch. That proves easier said than done, and Pletcher gets his third Derby win.
Bad Trip: The speed figure handicappers prove correct, and Forte hasn't moved forward from his 2-year-old season. His usual race is enough for a check, but it's not the big one, and anti-chalk players rejoice at having found a vulnerable favorite on the first Saturday in May.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#16: Raise Cain
Violence colt Raise Cain and Jose Lezcano following their win in the G3 Gotham
Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)
Owners: Warren and Warren
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Jockey: Gerardo Corrales
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Good Trip: Remember how Rich Strike won last year, with a few horses going crazy up front? That scenario sort of materializes for a runner that capitalized on it once already with his score in the G3 Gotham. It doesn't mean Raise Cain wins, but he's moving forward when many others have given up the ghost, and that leads to an in-the-money finish.
Bad Trip: A horse that's 0-for-3 in two-turn races is shown to be a one-turn closer. This just isn't what he wants to do, and when other closers are starting their runs, Raise Cain simply can't keep up.
Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#17: Derma Sotogake
Derma Sotogake, ridden by Christphe Lemaire, captures the G2 UAE Derby
Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)
Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Good Trip: Derma Sotogake hits the front early and forgets to stop. His G2 UAE Derby trip repeats itself, and while it looks like the American runners have every chance to reel him in turning for home, they can't do it. Japan wins its first Kentucky Derby, and American breeders are faced with the realization that the rest of the world is catching up.
Bad Trip: The UAE Derby curse continues. Derma Sotogake either can't make the front or has to spend too much energy doing so. This field proves tougher than the one he demolished at Meydan, and he retreats through the field as they turn for home.
#18: Rocket Can
Rocket Can wins the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Good Trip: A horse that's been working well since coming to Churchill Downs runs to that tab. Rocket Can isn't the caliber of horses like Forte or Tapit Trice, but he runs back to his early-season efforts at Gulfstream Park rather than his Arkansas Derby clunker. That's good enough to hit the board at a big price.
Bad Trip: The outside post compromises Rocket Can, who needs to be a bit forwardly-placed, isn't quite fast enough to clear most of the field, and loses lots of ground going around the first turn. That makes it tough for him to stick with a few horses that have beaten him once the real running starts.
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
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#19: Lord Miles
Lord Miles, with Paco Lopez aboard, winner of the G2 Wood Memorial. (Amira Chichak/NYRA photo)
Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)
Owner: Vegso Racing Stables
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Good Trip: His shocking win in the G2 Wood Memorial (you may have seen your fearless scribe tweet about it…) proves to not be a total fluke. Paco Lopez is able to get Lord Miles involved from the jump, and he's shown a wide trip isn't necessarily a disqualifying factor. He hangs on for a small piece of it at yet another big price.
Bad Trip: Lord Miles regresses off of a career-best race last time out. What we see on Saturday isn't the Lord Miles that outdueled Hit Show, but the one that couldn't keep up with Tapit Trice and Rocket Can earlier this year.
Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.
#20: Continuar
Continuar at Churchill Downs
Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)
Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Good Trip: Being totally honest, it's tough to imagine one, but I'll give it a try. Continuar runs a career-best race third off the bench and stays out of trouble with his far-outside post. The relatively clean journey at least allows him to salvage a finish in the top half of the field.
Bad Trip: Continuar has chased Derma Sotogake home three different times, and this race is no different. While one Japanese-bred horse is well-meant, it's not this one, who struggles to stay competitive.
#21 (AE): Cyclone Mischief
Cyclone Mischief
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Good Trip: Cyclone Mischief uses his tactical speed to clear most of the field and get comfortable near the front. He moved a bit too soon in the Florida Derby, but Rosario waits just a bit longer. He's not quite good enough to win, but he draws into the race and collects a minor award.
Bad Trip: Rocket Can's “bad trip” scenario lines up pretty well for Cyclone Mischief, too (we're closing in on 3,000 words; work with me, people!). He's got some speed, but it's not enough to clear the field, and the wide trip drains him early.
Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#22 (AE): Mandarin Hero
MANDARIN HERO (purple colors)
Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby – Namura Nadeshiko (by Fuji Kiseki)
Owner: Hiroaki Arai
Trainer: Terunobu Fujita
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Breeder: Hirano Bokujo (JPN)
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Good Trip: A horse that's never run a bad race produces another big effort. The race shape proves to be friendly to closers, and Mandarin Hero picks off most of the field with his big late kick. Maybe it's not enough to get him into the winner's circle, but it IS enough to remind folks that Japanese breeders know what they're doing.
Bad Trip: The Santa Anita Derby comes back as a poor prep race. What was seen as Mandarin Hero nearly nailing Practical Move on the wire is actually Practical Move running up against his own distance limitations, and this one struggles against the rest of the crop.
#23 (AE): King Russell
Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will (by Proud Citizen)
Owner: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Good Trip: A closer miraculously drew in off of the AE list last year and had everything go his way. King Russell is an outsider in both post and ability, but he HAS improved with experience and finished a “best of the rest” second behind Angel of Empire at Oaklawn Park. The race collapses, and he comes rolling late for a small piece of the pie.
Bad Trip: King Russell was 58-1 in the Arkansas Derby, and that effort is revealed to be an outlier. A horse still eligible for a first-level allowance is left with far too much to do late.
King Russell was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the unraced Proud Citizen mare Believe You Will, who is herself a homebred full-sister to Jones' 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Second dam El Fasto was also a homebred for Jones.
After arriving at Churchill Downs safely on Sunday night, Hoffman Thoroughbreds, Tom McCrocklin, and Medallion Racing's Promiseher America had her first gallop across Churchill Downs' main track on Wednesday. The Gazelle (G2)-winner galloped 1 1/4 miles under exercise rider Fernando Tapara in preparation for Friday's Kentucky Oaks (G1).
“Fernando said she felt awesome and was looking around a lot today,” trainer Ray Handal said. “We did all the heavy lifting back home so I wanted to ship her in, jog, change her shoes, and get her comfortable with her surroundings. She galloped today and looked around a bit. She'll gallop tomorrow and look around less, so she'll be relaxed on race day.”
Handal returns to Churchill Downs for the first time since May of 2013, and he brought Kentucky Derby alumni Giant Finish with him. Having worked for trainer Anthony Dutrow prior to beginning his own barn, Handal was on hand for Giant Finish's 10th-place finish to Orb.
“Giant Finish is my pony now,” Handal said. “I saddled him for the Derby. He's kind of the reason I started training (on my own) because the owners were so thrilled, and they gave me my first two horses to start training. I kept Giant Finish and now he's 13, so hopefully we can make a Derby with him around. It would be a nice way to come full circle.”
The chestnut daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was a third-out maiden winner going a one-turn mile on Feb. 19 at the Big A before providing Handal with his first graded stakes triumph when capturing the G3 Gazelle on April 8 – the final local Oaks prep – by a half-length.
Bred in Kentucky by Robert and Lawana Low, Promiseher America is out of the Unbridled's Song mare Promisedyouheaven, whose dam Hurricane Bernie is a half-sister to dual Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner Mizdirection [2012-13]. She was bought for $75,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.
With all of the heavy lifting done, it was a quiet morning beneath the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs with routine gallops and some gate schooling the order of the day for Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks entrants.
The respective morning line favorites for the Derby and Oaks, Forte and Wet Paint, both galloped with the former going 1 3/8 miles and the latter a mile and a half.
ANGEL OF EMPIRE/HIT SHOW/JACE'S ROAD, VERIFYING – Gary and Mary West's Hit Show, West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables' Jace's Road and Coolmore's Verifying went to out to train at 7:30 a.m. during the special training time Wednesday, while Albaugh Family Stables' Angel of Empire went out in the next set. All four Brad Cox-trained Derby contenders stood in the starting gate and then galloped 1 ½ miles.
“Everything went really well today,” Cox said. “We stood all four Derby horses in the gate. They stood extremely well. They are going to school tomorrow in the paddock. They are doing great, they really are. They stood in the gate and had really, really good gallops after that. Hopefully everything goes good in the paddock and we'll do as much as we can in the mornings. Hopefully that will translate to them being settled and handling everything well on Saturday.”
When asked if there was a specific reason Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire didn't go out with his stablemates, Cox said, “I wanted to stand Verifying and Hit Show next to each other because that's where they'll be on Saturday, in the 1 and 2 (posts). Also, exercise rider Edvin (Vargas) rides both Hit Show and Angel of Empire. Angel of Empire is pretty easy. You can do anything with him. I think a 7-year-old could probably gallop him. He's a super cool horse to be around.”
CONFIDENCE GAME – Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Stables' Confidence Game returned to the track Wednesday after walking on Tuesday and galloped 1 ¼ miles under exercise rider Alex Cano.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux is known to give his horses two walk days a week, but called the audible to walk Tuesday based on what he thought was best for the horse.
“His last two works were strong,” Desormeaux said. “And, you know, the main reason is that some horses don't rest well in their stall if they don't train. He's the opposite. If you get him out early, he does his thing. He walks 30 minutes and he goes back in his stall and rests. He lays down, he munches on hay, even on a walk day. He takes full advantage of it. So, I'm like you know what? Let's leave the track alone and let him sleep Tuesday. He's going to train again Wednesday. He's going to train again Friday and I'll probably train him Saturday morning early. Since the race isn't until 6:30 or something, I'll get him out and blow some steam off because by that time he'll know what's going on.
“He did go to the paddock, so it's not like he was sleeping all day. he did get out there and get pumped up. That's also another reason I walked. Why get him fired up twice. Onto the paddock isn't enough.”
CONTINUAR – Lion Race Horse Co. Ltd.'s Continuar (JPN) spent an hour training in the mile chute.
Trainer Yoshida Yahagi said Continuar would gallop in the morning.
DERMA SOTOGAKE – Hiroyuki Asanuma's Derma Sotogake (JPN) walked the shedrow in the Quarantine Barn a day after working a half-mile in :49.60.
Trainer Hidetaka Otonashi arrived in Louisville on Tuesday and was at the Kentucky Derby Trainers Dinner Tuesday night at the Speed Art Museum.
DISARM – Winchell Thoroughbreds' Disarm had a light one-mile jog Wednesday morning for trainer Steve Asmussen.
FORTE/KINGSBARNS/MAJOR DUDE/TAPIT TRICE – The Todd Pletcher threesome of Derby colts went trackside at their usual time, right when the track opened at 7:30 a.m. for the 15-minute session for Derby/Oaks trainees. They also had their usual exercise riders on their backs – Hector Ramos on Derby favorite Forte; Elder Flores on the undefeated Kingsbarns, and Amelia Green aboard the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) hero Tapit Trice.
Again, the trio went through their regular exercise, which is a mile and three-eighths in a good gallop.
“Everything is right on schedule,” Hall of Famer Pletcher confirmed when his charges had returned to his Barn 39 headquarters. “They'll all paddock today with the horses for Race 6.”
Forte is owned by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable and will be ridden Saturday by Irad Ortiz Jr. Kingsbarns runs in the colors of Spendthrift Farm and will be handled in the big one by Jose Ortiz, while Tapit Trice runs for Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable and gets regular rider Luis Saez.
LORD MILES – Vegso Racing Stable's Wood Memorial (G2) winner had a light gallop Wednesday morning at Churchill Downs.
Lord Miles drew post 19 in Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
MAGE – The Florida Derby (G1) runner-up to Forte was out for a gallop Wednesday with regular exercise rider J.J. Delgado.
“He's looking really well,” said Gustavo Delgado Jr., assistant to trainer Gustavo Delgado Sr. “He galloped about a mile-and-a-half again, and he finished the last three or four furlongs increasing his speed. Most importantly, when he came back, his breathing was nearly normal, and he wasn't breathing hard. I think he's going to run well.”
Javier Castellano will ride the son of Good Magic, owned by OGMA Investments LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH, out of the No. eight post position. He's 15-1 on the morning line.
PRACTICAL MOVE/REINCARNATE – Trainer Tim Yakteen changed his routine with his two Derby colts Wednesday morning at Churchill Downs. He had his gray Sham Stakes (G3) winner Reincarnate take the early slot at 5:20 with exercise rider Baltazar Contreras attached. Then at 7:30 during the special Derby/Oaks training period, he had Contreras take out the big bay Practical Move.
“Just put a little variety in it for the horses,” the conditioner said.
Reincarnate, who is owned by an extended partnership led by Gavin Murphy's SF Racing, galloped a mile and three-eighths before returning to Barn 27. Conversely, Pierre and Leslie Amestoy and Roger Beasley's Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Practical Move merely jogged a mile, an unusual move for a Derby horse midweek coming up to Saturday's Classic.
Yakteen was asked if everything was OK with Practical Move. The trainer said: “Everything is fine.”
Reincarnate, who'll have the saddle services of Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez for the Run for the Roses, will break from Post seven in the 20-horse lineup. Practical Move will break from Post 10 and have Ramon Vazquez at the controls.
RAISE CAIN – Andrew and Rania Warren's Raise Cain visited the starting gate and galloped a mile and a half under Rene Morales for trainer Ben Colebrook.
Winner of the Gotham (G3) in the mud, Raise Cain schooled in the paddock Tuesday and will have another paddock session Thursday.
There is rain the forecast three days out from Derby 149 and that doesn't bother Colebrook.
“Nick Zito (Hall of Famer and two-time Derby winner including Go for Gin in the slop in 1994) said it was going to rain Saturday,” Colebrook said. “I'll take that. The forecast said 60 percent (chance of rain) Friday and 40 on Saturday … oh, now it's 54.
“He has handled an off track and that is nothing that we have to worry about. Some handle it better than others, but what we need is pace.”
Gerardo Corrales has the mount Saturday and will break from post 16.
ROCKET CAN – Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott had the Into Mischief colt, owned by Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, on the track for a gallop of about a mile-and-three-eighths with regular exercise rider Guelser Cardona.
The colt, who drew the No. 18 post position and was issued odds of 30-1, will have Junior Alvarado aboard in the Derby.
“All's good,” said Mott of Wednesday's preparations for Rocket Can. “His gallop went well, and he practiced at the starting gate, standing in and backing out.”
SKINNER – The bay colt Skinner followed pattern Wednesday morning for trainer John Shirreffs and went trackside through the six-furlong gap at 9 a.m. with exercise rider Donnie Balthazar in the tack. The pair backtracked with a pony to the finish line, they moved up the tunnelway to the new paddock that has been setup for Derby 149 while the main paddock goes through its total remake.
Skinner did his paddock tour, then returned to the main track for a solid mile and a half gallop. The C R K Stable runner, a close-up third in the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent try, was full of vigor as he moved past his trainer, who looked on from the clocker's stand on the backside.
“I liked his energy,” the conditioner said.
Shirreffs, who won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with the 50-1 shot Giacomo and handled the grand racemare Zenyatta through several championship seasons, said he wasn't sure whether he would have Skinner paddock with horses Wednesday afternoon.
“It's a matter of saving energy,” the trainer said. “That and the fact that what he'll see for a crowd over there today won't be anywhere near what he'll encounter Saturday.”
SUN THUNDER – Following Tuesday's four-furlong breeze with Derby jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., trainer Kenny McPeek had his colt walking the shedrow on Wednesday. Sun Thunder, owned by R.T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine, was clocked in :47.80 for Tuesday's breeze, with blinkers on.
“Everybody's in good order,” McPeek said.
Sun Thunder and Hernandez will exit the Derby starting gate from post position 13. He's listed at 50-1 on the Derby morning line.
TWO PHIL'S – Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan, and Madaket Stable's Two Phil's spent an extended period on the track on Wednesday under exercise rider Gonzalo Gonzales. Heading out at 7:30 a.m. with the other Derby and Oaks horses, Larry Rivelli's first Derby horse spent around 30 minutes on the track. He stood in his usual spot along the fence outside his Barn 1 watching all the activity, then he took time to school in the gates before galloping his usual one 1 and 1/4 miles.
Rivelli, jockey Jareth Loveberry, and owner Anthony Sagan looked on, reflecting on how well he has traveled to each track. Including Hawthorne, where Two Phil's trained but has yet to race, Churchill Downs is his seventh stop.
“If he runs his last race he's going to have a huge chance,” Rivelli said. “A lot of people think it's the Tapeta that moved him up (winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park), and it could be. If it wasn't, he's got a serious shot. It's a deep and even year this year. There's no Justify, no American Pharoah, which gives us a shot.”
Two Phil's schooled on Tuesday prior of Race 1, sharing the paddock with fellow chestnut Rich Strike, who won Kentucky Derby 148.
ALSO-ELIGIBLES –.Trainer Dale Romans again had Cyclone Mischief galloping on the track about a mile-and-three-eighths with exercise rider Faustino Herrarte aboard. The colt, owned by Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Castleton Lyons, is the first also-eligible for the Derby, and not in the field of 20.
Hiroaki Arai's Mandarin Hero had a walk day in the Quarantine Barn after working five furlongs in 1:05.60 on Tuesday.
Brereton C. Jones and Naber Racing's King Russell galloped a mile and three-quarters Wednesday.
