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Local Prep Winner Caddo River Favored Over Baffert Pair In Saturday’s Rebel

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has dominated Oaklawn's four-race Kentucky Derby prep series the last decade. But it's Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox who has owned 2021.

Cox sent out Caddo River to a record-setting 10 ¼-length victory in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 22 for breeder/owner John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs. Cox then saddled champion 2-year-old male Essential Quality to win the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 and remain unbeaten in four career starts.

It's now Caddo River's turn, again, this time in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2), which highlights Saturday's blockbuster program at Oaklawn. Probable post time for the Rebel, the 11th of 12 races, 5:16 p.m. (Central). Racing begins at noon. The infield will be open, weather permitting.

The Rebel is among five stakes races to be run Saturday at Oaklawn, the others being the $150,000 Temperence Hill for older horses at 1 ½ miles, $200,000 Hot Springs for older sprinters, $350,000 Azeri (G2) for older females at 1 1/16 miles and the $500,000 Essex Handicap for older horses at 1 1/16 miles.

Whitmore, the country's champion male sprinter of 2020, will be making his seasonal debut in the Hot Springs. The gelding has won the 6-furlong Hot Springs a record four consecutive years. The Azeri will mark the 2021 debut of Shedaresthedevil, last year's Kentucky Oaks winner and a finalist for champion 3-year-old filly.

The Rebel is Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby points races. The eight entrants from the rail out: Caddo River, Florent Geroux to ride, 122 pounds, 9-5 on the morning line; Big Lake, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117, 12-1; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 117, 12-1; Get Her Number, Javier Castellano, 119, 8-1; Twilight Blue, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119, 15-1; Keepmeinmind, David Cohen, 119, 4-1; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 117, 2-1; and Super Stock, Joe Talamo, 117, 6-1.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 horses.

Caddo River earned 10 points for his front-running victory in the 1-mile Smarty Jones, which marked the two-turn debut for the long-striding son of 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun. Caddo River closed his 2-year-old campaign with a front-running 9 ½-length maiden victory going a mile Nov. 15 at Churchill Downs.

Baffert finished second to Cox in the Southwest with Spielberg, but returns for the Rebel, a race the trainer has won a record seven times, with a more highly regarded prospect in unbeaten Concert Tour (2 for 2). Concert Tour, who will be making his two-turn debut, broke his maiden Jan. 15 at Santa Anita and won the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita.

“Concert Tour, I just think that he's done everything right and he's worked well coming into this race,” said Baffert, who, since 2010, has 15 victories in Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn. “I think Caddo River is definitely the horse to beat. Cox is tough right now. He's got some nice horses and does a great job. And Keepmeinmind ran a great race in the Breeders' Cup. He's a good horse. You want to move forward. You just want to make a forward progression. They have to run first or second, to me. They've got to run first or second.”

Caddo River had been based at Oaklawn before Cox moved the colt to Fair Grounds Feb. 11, shortly before severe winter weather shuttered Oaklawn for almost two weeks. Remaining on a regular work schedule, Caddo River breezed four times at Fair Grounds before returning to Hot Springs Wednesday. Caddo River was able to clear his rivals from the extreme outside (post 7) going into the first turn of the Smarty Jones and now gets the rail for the Rebel.

“We'll see how it goes,” Cox said. “He's doing great. We couldn't ask him to be training any better. He hasn't missed anything. He's on a great schedule and training like the part.”

Caddo River's resume has been flattered in recent weeks. Smarty Jones runner-up Cowan finished a troubled second in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby Feb. 20 in Saudi Arabia and Greatest Honour, who twice finished behind Caddo River in maiden races last fall in New York, won the $200,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) Jan. 30 and the $300,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) Feb. 27. Both races were at Gulfstream Park.

“It's nice to see that horse has been kind of dominating the south Florida circuit,” Cox said. “He's run twice and obviously he's moved forward. I think we've moved forward as well. It gives us confidence, for sure.”

Baffert won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal, who also entered 2 for 2 after breaking his maiden sprinting in January at Santa Anita and winning the San Vicente. Concert Tour stalked the pace in the San Vicente and Baffert called Saturday's post position “fine.”

“My horses always seem to draw the rail,” Baffert said. “I draw it so much. It's one of those things, they still have to get away cleanly. Spielberg had a nice outside post and it ended up a horrendous break. No fault of anybody's, but he just moved at the last minute. They still have to get away from there and break cleanly and get into the race. You just want to get them into a nice rhythm where they can breathe easily and not get stopped.”

Late-running Keepmeinmind will be making his first start since breaking his maiden with a last-to-first victory in the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs. Prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club, Keepmeinmind finished third to Essential Quality in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland and second to Essential Quality in the $400,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) Oct. 3 at Keeneland.

Keepmeinmind was to make his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest, which was originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15 before the race was postponed twice because of severe winter weather. Robertino Diodoro, Oaklawn's leading trainer last year, opted to pass the delayed Southwest and point for the Rebel after Keepmeinmind's training schedule was interrupted by snow and bitter cold. Keepmeinmind has been based at Oaklawn since late December.

“I like the draw, the post, I like everything about it, to be honest,” Diodoro said. “No complaints. My famous saying is the race is run on dirt, not paper, but on paper it looks like more pace than I predicted to be in there. I like what the race looks like.”

Diodoro said Keepmeinmind will carry the silks of famed Spendthrift Farm for the first time in the Rebel after it recently purchased an interest in the son of Laoban.

Grade 1 winner Get Her Number will be making his 3-year-old debut for Southern California-based trainer Peter Miller. Super Stock ran third in the Breeders' Futurity for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

The Rebel is the final major local prep for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10. Nadal won the second division of last year's Arkansas Derby.

Baffert also won the Rebel in 2010 (Lookin At Lucky), 2011 (The Factor), 2012 (Secret Circle), 2014 (Hoppertunity), 2015 (American Pharoah) and 2016 (Cupid).

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‘A Good Step Up’: Triple Crown Prep May Be Next For Prevalence After Dominating Win

Godolphin LLC's Prevalence took a giant step forward Thursday at Gulfstream Park, where the highly regarded 3-year-old colt registered a dominating optional claiming allowance victory that may very well lead to a Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race for his next start.

Bet down to 1-9 in a field of six 3-year-olds on the strength of a dazzling debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight event at Gulfstream Jan. 23, Prevalence scored by three lengths in his return to action while running the one-turn mile in 1:35.82.

“I think it was a good step up for the horse going from the seven [furlongs] to a mile. It seemed like he got the distance good; the time was good,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We can't ask for much more than what we saw.”

The $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill n' Dale will be run March 27 at Gulfstream Park but will come up too soon for Prevalence. The Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland, the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park and Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct will be run April 3. The latter two preps would seem the most likely targets since Godolphin's Essential Quality is scheduled to run in the Blue Grass.

“We'll get back and let the dust settle and talk to the team at Godolphin and see where we go after that,” Walsh said, '[A Derby prep] is a strong possibility, for sure.”

Prevalence established himself as a hot Triple Crown prospect when he debuted on the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) undercard. After brushing with a rival shortly after the start, he asserted himself on the backstretch and drew away under wraps to complete seven furlongs in 1:23. The Feb. 27 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream had been a goal for the homebred son of Medaglia d'Oro before he missed a key workout due to a brief bout with a cough.

“It was very important that we did what we did today, and not throw him in too deep,” Walsh said. “I'm very pleased we got this race. Hats off to the guys at Gulfstream for getting the race to go, because I think it was very important for the horse.

Prevalence broke cleanly from his outside post to race a couple lengths off the pace set by Tio Magico, who was making his 2021 debut after finishing second in the Coronation Futurity at Woodbine in his juvenile finale. The Kentucky-bred colt joined the pacesetter leaving the backstretch without any encouragement from jockey Tyler Gaffalione and took a slight lead on the turn into the homestretch. He opened a clear lead in the stretch and finished under mild encouragement.

“It was probably not as flashy as his first race, but I think we're going to get a lot more out of this race today,” Gaffalione said. “He was definitely more green. He was looking up at the grandstand down the lane. He kind of got lost by himself. I just had to remind him to keep to his task. He has a really bright future. I'm really looking forward to getting to the bottom of him.

“He didn't disappoint at all today, if anything, I'm even more excited about him because I know, if it comes to it, he will give me some fight,” Gaffalione added.

Southern Passage, who trailed the field early, closed to finish second under Corey Lanerie, a length ahead of Tio Magico.

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Taking Stock: West-Bred Life Is Good and Concert Tour Top Baffert Barn

Gary and Mary West bred last weekend's hugely impressive Gll San Felipe S. winner Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Saturday's leading Gll Rebel S. contender Concert Tour (Street Sense), both 'TDN Rising Stars', both trained by Bob Baffert and probably the two leading Classics aspirants in his barn, with five wins, three graded triumphs and no losses between them. That's quite a feat for the Wests and their racing manager Ben Glass–clients of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants–because the Baffert barn is loaded with expensive and well-bred auction purchases for a number of big-time outfits, including the “Avengers” group that raced Gl Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Authentic (Into Mischief) last year, and their former partners in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy), WinStar and CHC, which races Life Is Good.

The Wests don't race in partnerships, going it exclusively alone–a rarity these days. They mostly buy yearling colts at Keeneland with a focus on Classic types with the aim of developing stallions, and their nascent breeding operation is mostly based around supporting their young horses at stud, including champions Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}), West Coast (Flatter) and Maximum Security (New Year's Day), plus American Freedom (Pulpit). That they've raced three Eclipse Award-winning colts in the last four years tells you all you need to know about their program, but Life is Good and Concert Tour, plus the promising 3-year-old homebred filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Slumber Party (Malibu Moon), are now showcasing the power of their broodmare band, too. Eventually, the plan for the Wests is to sell yearlings commercially, and selling a top colt like Life Is Good, which WinStar and CHC purchased for $525,000 at Keeneland, is good business to that end.

But did the Wests sell or keep a potential Derby winner? Much can happen between now and then, but if Concert Tour and Life Is Good were to meet in the Derby, it would test that question and add some drama to the race for the Wests–not that they need any more drama in Louisville after getting disqualified from first in the Derby with Maximum Security in 2019.

At the moment, Life Is Good, who is out of the Distorted Humor mare Beach Walk, is widely considered the most exciting and talented colt of his class, and that he won the San Felipe by open lengths with a massive 107 Beyer Speed Figure in early March makes him look like a man among boys.

“Based on what I saw today, Life Is Good is by far the best 3-year-old right now,” Gary West told me after the race. “But he will not make an uncontested lead in the Derby. Pace makes the race.”

He's right, of course, because there are questions about the colt's ability to see out 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, certainly based on the speed he shows early in races. One of the reasons Life Is Good was sold and Concert Tour, who's from the Tapit mare Purse Strings, was retained is that the former is by Into Mischief, a horse who a few years ago was mostly known as the sire of outstanding sprinter/milers, while the latter is by a Kentucky Derby winner.

Perceptions about Into Mischief have changed since Ben Glass sent us an email in late 2016 that said, “Mr. West has put Into Mischief on his list this year [for stallions to use].” The stallion's fee had been rising steadily since it hit a low of $7,500 in 2012, and it was bumped to $75,000 for 2017 from $45,000 the year before. Nevertheless, Into Mischief was represented by only two Grade l winners at that time, Goldencents and Practical Joke. The former had established himself as a premier miler and the latter, from a Distorted Humor mare like Life Is Good, was a 2-year-old of 2016 that had accounted for two Grade l races at 7 furlongs and a mile, the Hopeful and the Champagne, respectively. By the time Life Is Good was foaled in 2018, Practical Joke had reverted to sprinting after a fifth-place finish in the Derby and won the Gl H. Allen Jerkens over seven furlongs, but Audible had won the Gl Florida Derby in early 2018 and would go on to finish third in the Derby, hinting at what Into Mischief could accomplish under the right conditions.

In the August 23, 2019, column “Into Mischief's Changing Profile,” I foreshadowed the arrival of horses like Authentic when I wrote: “With the better mares he's being bred to, it's easy to project that his Grade l output at 1 1/8 miles and up will increase in the coming years. When that happens, his progeny earnings should rise that much more, which means that his rivals on the General Sire list are in for a greater tussle in the ensuing years. The latest chapter of this impressive stallion's book is just being written. Stay tuned.”

To date, Into Mischief is the sire of eight Grade l winners, and he led the General Sire list for the second consecutive year in 2020 with $22,507,940 in progeny earnings, almost $10 million more than runner-up Medaglia d'Oro. The year before, he'd led the list with earnings of $19,179,389, a little more than $3.5 million ahead of Curlin.

The Wests, however, decided to sell Life Is Good in 2019 because he was bred on the same cross as sprinter/miler Practical Joke, but they were only prepared to let him go at their price. They got it–$525,000–from WinStar and CHC, who'd raced Into Mischief's son Audible, and it was a no-brainer for the partners to send him to Baffert after their success with Justify and Baffert's handling of Authentic and the outstanding speed filly Gamine (Into Mischief) last year.

The Figure-8 and Baffert

In Gamine, the $1.8 million Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old sales topper in 2019; and Authentic, a $350,000 Keeneland September yearling, Baffert had a bird's-eye view of the best of Into Mischief–and the stallion's limitations and potential as well. Both Gamine and Authentic were fast, but the filly, a champion sprinter, had distance limitations at nine furlongs like many past top Into Mischiefs while the colt proved he could carry his speed 10 furlongs against the best, surprising many in the process.

Both Gamine and Authentic are lighter and more elegant physicals, whereas Life Is Good is a more robust and masculine model. Like the other two, speed is his game, but how far he can carry it remains the question. In his second start, you'll recall, Life Is Good was cruising easily on the lead and building a sizeable margin in the stretch of the Glll Sham S. before Baffert's Medina Spirit (Protonico), a $35,000 OBS July 2-year-old, took a substantial bite out of that lead at the finish.

As Baffert was preparing Life Is Good for the San Felipe, I noticed he'd called an audible for the colt's last work before the San Felipe and fitted him with a Figure-8 noseband, which is used for control and for encouraging proper breathing through the nostrils by keeping the colt's mouth shut. I texted Baffert last Friday, before the San Felipe, inquiring in text-speak: “Noticed you put fig8 on Life Is Good for 2/28 work and have galloped him in it since. Rare for you. Should help his air, right?”

Baffert replied: “Put it on more for control. Slow him down. His air is great.”

The move proved both inspired and effective, because Life Is Good had eight lengths on Medina Spirit at the end of 1 1/16 miles whereas he'd held the same colt to a 3/4-length margin in the Sham at a mile. As Gary West pointed out, however, Life Is Good had it easy on the lead in the San Felipe with Medina Spirit hard held early to give his stablemate breathing room and the others not wanting to tangle early, but that triple-digit Beyer and the manner in which he won, even with the drifting to the middle of the track, was undeniably impressive and a move in the right direction if 10 furlongs is the goal.

Triple-Digit Beyers

The Twitter persona known as @o_crunk–if you're not following him, you should, because he's the master of stats– tweeted after the race that since Jan. 1, 2010, there have been 132 3-year-olds that have earned Beyers of 100 or more from January through April, with Baffert training 32 of them and Todd Pletcher 27 in second place. In a follow-up tweet, @o_crunk put this in context, noting that Baffert and Pletcher also get the most expensive auction purchases to work with, and he included an old blog post titled “The Toddster in context” that backs up this hypothesis with auction numbers.

Note, too, that over the same time span Baffert has trained six of the past 11 champion 3-year-old colts, the cheapest of which was Authentic at $350,000 if you don't count homebred American Pharoah's $300,000 “sale” as a yearling. Justify was a $500,000 yearling, West Coast was a $425,000 yearling, Arrogate cost $560,000 as a yearling, and Lookin At Lucky was a $475,000 2-year-old.

There's a reason why folks pay good money for yearlings and 2-year-olds at auction, and why they send them to Baffert, too.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Pimlico Announces $3.25 Million Spring Stakes Schedule

Featuring the return of the $1 million Preakness Stakes (G1) to its familiar position as the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown, the Maryland Jockey Club will offer 16 stakes, 10 graded, worth $3.25 million in purses over Preakness weekend, May 14-15, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md.

Postponed to Oct. 3 last year amid the coronavirus pandemic, the latest running in a history that dates back to 1873, the 146th Preakness for 3-year-olds going 1 3/16 miles highlights a program of 10 stakes, six graded, worth $2.25 million Saturday, May 15 that includes the 120th edition of the $250,000 Dinner Party (G2) for 3-year-olds and up on turf, Pimlico's oldest stakes race and the eighth-oldest in the country, debuting in 1870.

In 2020, Swiss Skydiver become only the sixth filly in race history to win the Preakness, beating Kentucky Derby (G1) and subsequent Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Authentic, who would go on to be named champion 3-year-old male and Horse of the Year. Swiss Skydiver was named champion 3-year-old filly.

Other graded-stakes on the Preakness undercard are the $200,000 Chick Lang (G3) for 3-year-olds sprinting six furlongs, $150,000 Gallorette (G3) for fillies and mares 3 and up going 1 1/16 miles on the grass, $150,000 Maryland Sprint (G3) at six furlongs for 3-year-olds and up, and $100,000 Arabian Derby (G1) for Arabian 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles.

Sophomores will also be in the Preakness Day spotlight in both the $100,000 Sir Barton going 1 1/16 miles on dirt and $100,000 James W. Murphy at one mile on the grass. Rounding out the stakes are the $100,000 Jim McKay Turf Sprint, a five-furlong dash for 3-year-olds and up, and $100,000 Skipat for females 3 and older sprinting six furlongs.

Both the Maryland Sprint, which had run continuously since its debut in 1989, and Sir Barton, first held in 1993 and named for racing's first Triple Crown winner, return to the stakes schedule this year.

The 97th running of the $250,000 Black-Eyed Susan (G2), one of the premiere events in the country for 3-year-old fillies and contested at 1 1/8 miles, returns to its spot as the feature on Preakness eve, Friday, May 14, after being run as part of the revamped Preakness 2020 program.

A total of six stakes, four graded, worth $1 million in purses help comprise the Black-Eyed Susan Day card, including the historic $250,000 Pimlico Special (G3) for 3-year-olds and up at 1 3/16 miles, $150,000 Miss Preakness (G3) for 3-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs, and $150,000 Allaire du Pont (G3).

For fillies and mares 3 and up going 1 1/8 miles, the du Pont resumes its spot on the Black-Eyed Susan day program after being rescheduled to late December and run as the last graded-stakes on the East Coast in 2020.

Two grass races round out the May 14 stakes program – the $100,000 Hilltop for 3-year-old fillies going a mile and $100,000 The Very One, a five-furlong dash for fillies and mares 3 and older.

The Preakness Meet at Pimlico is scheduled to open Friday, May 7 and conclude with a special Memorial Day program Monday, May 31.

Live racing is currently being conducted in Maryland at Laurel Park, which is nearing the March 28 end of its 2021 winter meet. The next live program will be Saturday, March 13 featuring five stakes worth $450,000 in purses including the $100,000 Private Terms for 3-year-olds and $100,000 Beyond the Wire for 3-year-old fillies.

Ticket information for Preakness Day and Black-Eyed Susan Day will be announced shortly.

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