The Haiku Handicapper Presented By NYRABets: 2022 Belmont Stakes

Time to analyze the 2022 Belmont Stakes field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku; a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.

To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.

#1 – We the People
If he gets his way,
He could lead them around twice
What if he doesn't?

#2 – Skippylongstocking
Shot his Preakness shot
And he was a non-factor
A level too high

#3 – Nest
A bottled-up Oaks
Has the blood for Big Sandy
But can she keep up?

#4 – Rich Strike
It's the race they want
Will they get the pace they want?
Glass slipper fissures

#5 – Creative Minister
Meteoric rise
Has plenty of pedigree
One last rung to climb

#6 – Mo Donegal
The Pletcher playbook:
Derby, Belmont, hoist trophy
It might work this time

#7 – Golden Glider
Conjure Sir Winston
And then put that thought aside
Future also-ran

[Story Continues Below]

#8 – Barber Road
Outran Derby odds
You've gotta love his moxie
Honest, win or lose.

Prediction
The climb continues
For Creative Minister
Seven, one follow

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Op/Ed: The Triple Crown Woes…Maybe It’s the Purses?

Though not a proponent of “fixing” the Triple Crown by spacing the races further apart, I can't deny that the series has a problem. GI Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike (Keen Ice) passed the GI Preakness S. Preakness winner Early Voting (Gun Runner) won't be running in the GI Belmont S. this Saturday and not a single horse will contest all three Triple Crown races this year. The Triple Crown ends with a race that is good but could be a lot better. Lining up the best horses possible for as many Triple Crown races as possible has become immensely difficult.

But maybe the biggest problem isn't the spacing of the races but that the purses for the races, especially the Preakness and the Belmont, are not what they should be and haven't kept up with the times. If you want your races to always get the best horses and to be considered to be among the most important, most prestigious races on the calendar you're going to have to pay for the privilege. The Triple Crown tracks haven't bought into that premise.

The purse of the Kentucky Derby is $3 million. The Preakness and Belmont are worth $1.5 million each. While that may seem like a lot of money, in a sport where purses have exploded over the last 15 years or so, it's not. There are nine U.S. races that have a larger purse than the Preakness and Belmont, eight of them Breeders' Cup races and the other the $3-million GI Pegasus World Cup. That's not to mention the riches thrown around in Saudi Arabia and Dubai. Or that the Preakness and Belmont are worth only $500,000 more than four Kentucky Derby preps, the GI Blue Grass S., the GII Louisiana Derby, the GI Florida Derby, and the GII Rebel S., and just $250,000 more than the GI Arkansas Derby.

The Triple Crown races, as important as they are, should be the richest races run in the U.S. or at least the equal of any other race. To make that happen, they should all be worth $6 million, the equal of the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. It can be done. Let me explain.

With $6 million total now paid out in the three races, the Triple Crown tracks would have to come up with an additional $12 million to be able to pay out $6 million in each race. That probably wouldn't be much of a problem for Churchill Downs or NYRA, but, at Pimlico, it would be a lot to ask for them to come up with that kind of money. Simply asking the tracks to increase the purses on their own isn't going to happen.

So, why not copy what the Breeders' Cup has done?

One of the reasons why they can give away so much money at the Breeders' Cup is that, in order for a horse to be eligible to run, their sire must be nominated and they must also be nominated as foals. If not, the owners must pay a hefty fee to supplement them into a Breeders' Cup race. It costs $400 to nominate a foal. To make the progeny of a North American-based stallion eligible, a payment equal to 50% of the horse's published stud fee is required.

In the fiscal year that ended on Jan. 31, 2021, the Breeders' Cup took in $8.4 million from domestic stallion nomination fees and $2.7 million in fees for foreign stallions. Foal nomination fees added up to $4.1 million with 9,822 nominated foals. That adds up to $15.2 million.

The Triple Crown is not going to equal those numbers. There would be little incentive to nominate fillies or foreign stallions. But could asking owners and breeders to pay fees similar to what they pay to make their horses and stallions eligible to run in the Breeders' Cup yield $10 million or so? Probably. Finding another $2 million out of the track's pockets to bolster the purses and get to the $12 million figure wouldn't be asking that much.

There's also the matter of what it currently costs to make a horse eligible for the Triple Crown, a payment now due in late January of a horse's 3-year-old year. Not only would that payment still be required under this proposal, but it should be increased. It currently costs just $600 to nominate a horse to the Triple Crown. There were 312 noms this year, which adds up to only $187,200. You could raise another $500,000 or so by upping the fee to $2,500, which doesn't seem unreasonable.

The days of owners being sportsmen is long gone. The owners who dominate the top levels of the sport are businessmen and businesswomen and no matter what they may say, their decisions ultimately come down to money. The end goal is to maximize their profit on their horses and the way to do that is to create a stallion who can command a large stud fee. It is not to win as many races as possible. To get there, you need only have to have a horse with a strong pedigree who has won, perhaps, a single Grade I race. Trainers believe that the best way to have a horse primed to win a major race is to have plenty of time between starts.

A Kentucky Derby win is important, but not the be all and end all. Wins in the Preakness and Belmont are less important.

But there has to be a tipping point somewhere, where the purses are so large that the right business decision becomes running in, and not passing on, the Triple Crown races. Put up $18 million for the series and $6 million per race and people will run, even if the three races take place over a five-week span. That's how you can fix the Triple Crown.

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Rich Strike Gets To ‘Play And Bounce A Little Bit’ Over Belmont Training Track

RED-TR-Racing's Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike had a slight change in his daily routine on Wednesday, galloping one mile over the Belmont Park training track in preparation for Saturday's Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.

“We just wanted to let him play and bounce a little bit,” said trainer Eric Reed. “He's happy.”

Wednesday's gallop was much quieter than Tuesday when the chestnut son of Keen Ice galloped about two miles over the main track with vigor, coasting along under regular exercise rider Gabriel Lagunes.

“We wait on him for what we call a 'happy gallop,'” Reed said of the Tuesday gallop. “He'll get going and for three or four furlongs and then Gabriel gets him back in stride. He wanted more. I knew the last two days when he came off the track rearing up that we had to let him have his happy gallop.”

Reed said Rich Strike was still eager to do more after his mile gallop Wednesday.

“He came off the track and was like 'Wait a minute, that's just one [lap],'” Reed said, with a laugh. “We have to draw the line somewhere.”

Rich Strike has routinely galloped each morning for Reed and had his first two trips around Big Sandy over sloppy going. There is a chance he could encounter a wet track on Saturday with a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast, something Reed said he should handle well.

“The only thing that concerns us is the favorite [We the People] seems to like a wet track an awful lot,” Reed said. “Our rider said he [Rich Strike] loves the mud. We'll take whatever we get.”

Rich Strike, whose running style sees him come from well off the pace, could be more forwardly placed to combat the historic trend of deep closers in the “Test of the Champion” struggling to make up ground.

“We just hope he'll leave the gate and wants to stay close early,” Reed said. “I watched about twelve Belmont Stakes last night and they don't often do it from way back. But he's happy today.”

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‘Full Circle’: Barber Road Brings Trainer John Ortiz Back To Belmont Park

WSS Racing's Barber Road, listed at odds of 10-1 in Saturday's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets, has only just arrived in New York. But his trainer, former Elmont-resident John Ortiz, is hopeful of a homecoming to remember.

“I moved to New York when I was five,” said Ortiz, a native of Colombia. “I went to Gotham Avenue Elementary and then to Elmont Memorial High School.

“As a kid, I spent as much time as I possibly could at Belmont. I remember leaving after school to run to the backside,” he added. “I got my first job there with Bill Mott and started hotwalking with him.”

His father, Carlos, a former jockey, galloped horses for Mott and a young Ortiz was keen to follow in the family tradition, learning the ropes on a multiple stakes placed mare named Brown Eyed Lass under the watchful eye of the Hall of Fame conditioner.

“I got on my first racehorse for Bill Mott,” Ortiz said. “He took me on the track with the pony and we jogged together for the first time. I was hooked ever since.”

Ortiz worked his way up the ranks and in 2016, at the age of 30, he launched his own training career, saddling his first winner at Turfway Park that December. He has based his stable mainly in Kentucky and Arkansas, achieving his first graded stakes success when Zulu Alpha captured the 2019 Grade 3 Sycamore at Keeneland.

Barber Road, by Race Day, has lifted the young conditioner's profile to another level, closing to hit the board in four consecutive Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn Park. The grinding colt earned placings in the Smarty Jones [2nd], Grade 3 Southwest [2nd], Grade 2 Rebel [3rd] and Grade 1 Arkansas Derby [2nd].

Last out, he closed from last-of-20 and 19 lengths off the pace under Reylu Gutierrez to finish sixth with a wide run down the lane in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby on May 7 at Churchill Downs, finishing just 4 3/4-lengths in arrears of 80-1 upset winner Rich Strike.

“I've seen a big maturity boost in him leaving the Kentucky Derby,” Ortiz said. “He finally got that stretch run with no interference and even though he went wide, I was happy to see him able to run in the clear. You could see how hard he was closing. He moved at the same time as Rich Strike- he went to the inside and we went outside, but we were only four lengths short. That gave our horse the strength and fitness we were looking for. He looks more athletic after the Kentucky Derby.”

Barber Road will exit the outside post 8 on Saturday under new rider Joel Rosario, a two-time Belmont Stakes winner.

“I love where we drew on the far outside. We have plenty of stretch to get settled in early in the race,” Ortiz said. “Hopefully, we can get into the right position going into the first turn.

“We're giving our horse the best shot he can possibly take here with Joel, who is a very experienced local rider,” added Ortiz. “He's a great match for this horse and this race.”

Ortiz said he is appreciative of Barber Road's tenacious character.

“He's hard-knocker and out there to please. You know he's always giving it all,” Ortiz said. “He trains happily and when he runs, he enjoys it. All I can ask going into a race like this is that they're fit, happy and sound – I got all three of them and that gives me confidence.”

Ultimately, Ortiz said he would love to see Barber Road win after so many close efforts.

“I want to win for the horse,” Ortiz said. “I like to see horses win because I know how hard they work out in the mornings. It's not just a human thing. The horses deserve to be recognized for their success and that's why we take win pictures at the end. They know when they win and I think this horse deserves a shot.”

Ortiz is emotional when speaking about the opportunity to be represented in Saturday's “Test of the Champion.”

“I'm beyond thankful to be participating in the Belmont Stakes,” Ortiz said. “It's a race I've loved and looked forward to since I was a kid. I grew up in Elmont, New York, so it's a hometown race for me.

“Belmont is the biggest reason why I am the trainer I am today but also the person I am today,” he continued. “I did all my growing up in Elmont and on the backside of Belmont Park. It's coming full circle.”

And as for his chances of winning and getting Barber Road that well-deserved stakes win photo?

“I think we can expect some of Joel's magic,” said Ortiz, with a laugh.

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