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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: A Rapid River In The Smarty Jones

Oaklawn opened its 2021 meeting last Friday, Jan. 22, with Caddo River taking the day's feature race, the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes for 3-year-olds, the only Kentucky Derby qualifying points race of the last week.

Caddo River serves notice with a 10 1/4-length victory in the Smarty Jones

The Smarty Jones, worth 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1) is the first of four Derby points races at the Hot Sports, Ark., track. Next up will be the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (17 points) on Feb. 15, followed by the G2 Rebel (85 points) on March 13 and the G1 Arkansas Derby (170 points) on April 10 – three weeks before the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

Inaugurated in 2008, the Smarty Jones has yet to produce a classic winner, though Will Take Charge kicked off his Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old season with a victory in the 2013 Smarty Jones for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas. Though he was unsuccessful while running in all three Triple Crown races, Will Take Charge won the G2 Rebel, G1 Travers, G2 Pennsylvania Derby, G1 Clark and was beaten a nose by Mucho Macho Man in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

While the Smarty Jones was the only points race, there were two very impressive maiden performances worth chronicling on Saturday, Jan. 23.

The first may have gotten lost on the Pegasus World Cup card from Gulfstream Park. Prevalence, a Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d'Oro trained by Brendan Walsh, absolutely destroyed a 12-horse maiden field going seven furlongs. Breaking half a step slow from the six post under Tyler Gaffalione at 7.80-1 odds, Prevalence worked his way toward the front along the rail after an opening quarter mile in :22.66. He was in front after a half in :46.09 and then left his rivals in the dust, pulling away under mild encouragement to win by 8 ½ lengths while completely geared down in the final yards. Six-furlong split was 1:10.45 with the seven furlongs timed in 1:23.00. He was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 89.

Prevalence was an impressive winner in his debut at Gulfstream Park on Pegasus World Cup day

Prevalence was one of eight first-time starters in the race, so it's hard to gauge the quality of the field he was beating. I have a sneaking suspicion several of those who chased Prevalence will graduate soon as the field included a John Gunther homebred trained by Chad Brown (runner-up Stage Raider), a $1,050,000 Curlin yearling trained by Todd Pletcher (Ghazaaly, who finished third), and horses carrying silks of high-end stables like W.S. Farish, WinStar Farm/CHC Inc., and Lothenbach Stables, among others.

Walsh told Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch he might look for an allowance race or consider the G2 Fountain of Youth (an 85-point Derby points test) on Feb. 27 for Prevalence's next start.

Pedigree note: Prevalence was produced from the Ghostzapper mare Enrichment, whose Arch colt Estihdaaf won the G3 UAE Two Thousand Guineas at a mile in 2019. Enrichment was produced from the Seeking the Gold mare Sahara Gold, a daughter of the Storm Cat mare Desert Stormer, who beat males in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Sprint.

The other impressive maiden winner on Saturday was The Great One, a Nyquist colt who romped to a 14-length win at Santa Anita in a mile maiden race that ran with only four starters, including 11-10 favorite debut runner Fenway (a $650,000 yearling purchase by Into Mischief) from the Bob Baffert barn. The Great One is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O'Neill and is owned in part by Erik Johnson, a defenseman for the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL (thus the name The Great One, a reflection of hockey legend Wayne Gretzky's nickname, fitting for a son of a horse named for another hockey star Gustav Nyquist).

The Great One, by Nyquist, drawing off by 14 lengths under Abel Cedillo

The Great One was coming off a nose defeat to Baffert-trained Spielberg in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 19 – his fourth start. Two starts earlier in a mile main track maiden race at Del Mar, The Great One finished fourth, beaten 13 lengths by Spielberg. So I think we can establish that The Great One is improving.

Unlike the Los Al Futurity, where The Great One raced on the lead throughout and was nailed in a head-bobber, he rated just off Fenway's right flank through fractions of :22.91 and :45.76, then took command after three-quarters in 1:10.67. He went seven furlongs in 1:23.69 and under energetic handling by Abel Cedillo for most of the stretch run stopped the clock for a mile in 1:37.28 – a final quarter mile in 26.61 seconds after fast early fractions.

The Great One received a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, compared to an 81 for his Los Al Futurity.

O'Neill said the G2 San Felipe (85 qualifying points) on March 6 is the logical next step for The Great One.

If I had to pick between these two maiden winners, I'd go with Prevalence, simply because I see more upside.

Now a look at the Smarty Jones Stakes. My grading system (A to F) is entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields.

Jan. 22: Smarty Jones Stakes, one mile, Oaklawn

Much was expected of Brad Cox-trained Caddo River, the 3-5 Smarty Jones favorite based on the Hard Spun colt's 9 ½-length maiden win when stretched out to a one-turn mile for his third start at Churchill Downs last Nov. 15. He finished second in two previous seven-furlong sprints at Saratoga in September and Belmont in October.

He did not disappoint, winning by 10 1/4 lengths.

With Florent Geroux in the saddle, Caddo River went straight to the front and basically tow-roped the seven-horse field once around the Oaklawn oval to the finish line at the sixteenth pole in the “short stretch” configuration for one-mile races at Oaklawn. Each of his quarter miles went progressively slower than the previous one: :23.12, :24.04, :25.26 and :25.77. That's about the only flaw (if you could call in that) I could see in the performance, which was very professional and rated a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

There were three multiple winners in the lineup, plus the Steve Asmussen-trained Cowan, a two-time stakes runner-up, including the G2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I don't see a big upward arc for any of those who came in Caddo River's wake, so the level of competition knocks down his grade a bit.

Hard Spun (like Prevalence's sire Medaglia d'Oro and The Great One's sire Nyquist) stands at Darley at Jonabell Farm. While his lone G1 victory came sprinting seven furlongs in the King's Bishop (now the H. Allen Jerkens), the son of Danzig finished second to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby and second to Curlin in the Breeders' Cup Classic at four in 2007. His offspring have proven to be solid around two turns as well.

Caddo River, bred by and racing for John Ed Anthony's Shortleaf Stable, is the firest foal from the Congrats mare Pangburn, a stakes winner for Shortleaf purchased for $130,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale.

Anthony is no stranger to the Triple Crown trail, having won the 1980 Belmont Stakes with Temperence Hill and back-to-back Preakness Stakes in 1992-'93 with Pine Bluff and Prairie Bayou, respectively. He's won Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes four times and the Arkansas Derby on three occasions. Like so many of his previous runners, Caddo River is named after a landmark in Anthony's home state of Arkansas. We're going to hear a lot more about this horse.

Grade: B

This Saturday we'll have two Kentucky Derby points races, the G3 Holy Bull from Gulfstream Park and the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes from Santa Anita

Previously: Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Midnight Bourbon Aging Well

One Kentucky Derby qualifying points race was held over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, but there were a couple of other races worth looking at.

The points race was the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes from Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., a 1 1/16-mile contest offering 17 Derby points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1). While no winners of the Lecomte have gone on to capture the G1 Kentucky Derby, there are some notable successes in the not-too-distant past, including G1 Preakness winners War of Will (2019) and Oxbow (2013). Going back a few more years to 2007, you'll find Derby runner-up Hard Spun on the Lecomte winner's roster.

Tampa Bay Downs ran the Pasco Stakes, a starting point for the Oldsmar, Fla., track's Derby qualifying points races: the Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis (17 points) and March 6 Tampa Bay Derby (85 points). The Pasco, run at seven furlongs, offered a $125,000 purse but no Derby points and has never produced a winner that had an impact on the Triple Crown.

Finally, California-breds were in the spotlight at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., including 3-year-olds in the Cal Cup Derby. While this might not be a points race, let's remember that a Lucky Pulpit colt named California Chrome launched his 3-year-old championship campaign (including Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins) with a victory in the Cal Cup Derby.

As I wrote in my first 2021 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card, the following grades are entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields. I don't employ an “easy” curve in my grading.

Jan. 16: Lecomte Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds

Midnight Bourbon was second-choice in the wagering behind the Brad Cox-trained Into Mischief colt Mandaloun, the 4-5 favorite who came into the Lecomte undefeated in two starts: a six-furlong maiden win at Keeneland Oct. 24 and an allowance victory at Churchill Downs Nov. 28. Midnight Bourbon, trained by Steve Asmussen, chased the front-running (and likely distance challenged) Jackie's Warrior last time out when third in the G1 Champagne Stakes at a one-turn mile at Belmont Park Oct. 10. Michael Stidham-trained Proxy (by Tapit) won back-to-back maiden and allowance races around two turns in November and December at Fair Grounds after narrowly losing his debut at Monmouth Oct. 24. He was the 8-1 fifth choice in the betting.

Midnight Bourbon and Joe Talamo hold off Proxy and Mandaloun to win the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds

All three come from serious racing and breeding operations: Midnight Bourbon is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred Tiznow colt; Mandaloun is a Juddmonte Farms homebred; and Proxy is a Godolphin homebred produced from the outstanding racemare Panty Raid, winner of the G1 Spinster at Keeneland.

Midnight Bourbon has the goods pedigree-wise, being a half brother to G3 Salvatore Mile winner Pirate's Punch (by Shanghai Bobby); G1 Haskell winner Girvin (by Tale of Ekati); and G3 Iroquois winner Cocked and Loaded (by Colonel John). Now pensioned Tiznow, the two-time G1 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, has been an outstanding sire. He was a late developer, not debuting until late April of his 3-year-old campaign and winding up the year as the champion 3-year-old male and 2000 Horse of the Year. It wouldn't be a stretch to think Midnight Bourbon will age well.

Joe Talamo, subbing for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard Midnight Bourbon, took it to his rivals early, outhustling Proxy and Mandaloun for the early lead and laying down 24 and change fractions all the way around the Fair Grounds oval and repelling bids from Proxy and a three-wide Mandaloun from the three-eighths pole to the wire, holding them at bay by one length. Trainer Cox said he might put blinkers on Mandaloun for his next start in the Risen Star, where he'll get a rematch with Midnight Bourbon.

The winner earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in the Lecomte, a significant improvement from his previous best Beyer, 80, when second to late-running Sittin On Go at Churchill Downs in the G3 Iroquois Sept. 5 after making a bold move to the lead on the turn for home.

Midnight Bourbon ran his final sixteenth in 6.32 seconds and the final five-sixteenths in 30.85 in his first true two-turn test (he broke his maiden going a mile on the peculiar Ellis Park layout where they start coming out of a chute on the clubhouse turn).

Grade: B

Jan. 16: Pasco Stakes, seven furlongs, Tampa Bay Downs

The Bill Mott-trained Union Rags colt Nova Rags jumped off the Daily Racing Form past performances page as the only 3-year-old in the eight-horse lineup to contest a graded stakes, finishing fourth in the G3 Nashua at Aqueduct on Nov. 8.

Nova Rags was made the 13-10 favorite and ran to his odds, winning by 2 ¾ lengths under Samy Camacho despite going very wide throughout (five wide going into the final turn). Nova Rags covered seven furlongs in 1:24.55 and earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure, three ticks lower than a 78 Beyer in his debut maiden victory at Belmont Park Oct. 10.

Nova Rags draws off late under Samy Camacho to win the Pasco Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths

Out of a Smart Strike mare, the Michael Shanley homebred should improve with distance and Hall of Famer Mott is known for his patience with all of his horses. It's hard to take much from this race, especially when you go back and look at how soundly he was defeated in the Nashua, where he lost by 14 ¼ lengths without apparent excuse.

Grade: D

Jan. 16: California Cup Derby 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

Trainer David Hofmans added blinkers to Big Fish's equipment for this race restricted to California-bred or -sired horses after removing the hood two starts back. This a long-striding colt by the Dynaformer stallion Mr. Big who probably wasn't best suited when sent out for a 4 ½-furlong maiden test last June 19 in his debut, finishing second. After another sprint try on dirt where he finished third to Cal Cup Derby favorite Good With People, Hofmans moved Big Fish to turf, where he graduated against state-breds going one mile, then won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes against open company at the same distance.

Big Fish put in a big stretch run to win the California Cup Derby under Juan Hernandez

In the Cal Cup Derby, jockey Juan Hernandez allowed Big Fish to settle well behind the early leaders, commenced a drive around the three-eighths pole, saved ground into the stretch and ran down Good With People and Peter Miller stablemate None Above the Law. Big Fish won going away by 1 ½ lengths in a fairly pedestrian 1:46.37 for 1 1/16 miles, earning a 71 Beyer Speed Figure.

Hofmans now has options for the Legacy Ranch homebred, who comes from the same female family as Pasco winner Nova Rags. The fourth dam of Big Fish is Kaylem Ho, and Kaylem Ho is the second dam of Nova Rags. Kaylem Ho was a member of Mrs. Henry D. Paxson's excellent broodmare ban in the late 1970s in Pennsylvania.

Grade: C-

Coming up on Friday's opening-day card at Oaklawn is the Smarty Jones Stakes at a mile, with 17 Derby points offered. The following weekend, the Road to the Kentucky Derby gets more serious with the Jan. 30 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park and Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita.

Previously: Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Life Is Good, Not Great, So Far

As we moved into the first weekend of 2021 (anyone sorry to leave 2020 behind?), there were three races that can be looked upon as early-season preps for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby that is scheduled to be run on May 1.

Only one of the three preps – Saturday's Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita – was graded, and two of the races – the Sham and the Jerome at Aqueduct – received a total of 17 qualifying points for the Derby on a 10-4-2-1 basis for the top four finishers.

The third contest, the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park, was neither graded nor an official points race, but it is the first leg of the South Florida track's road to the G1 Florida Derby, which has become the major East Coast prep for the Kentucky Derby.

Here is my first report card on the major Triple Crown prep races of 2021. Grades are entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures, historical significance of the race, and perceived quality of the fields. Please keep this caveat in mind: I am not particularly easy on my “grading curve” and am not easily impressed.

Jan. 1: Jerome Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct

Capo Kane is a California-bred colt by Street Sense who handily defeated a pair of New York-bred stakes winners and two other maiden winners in a race that has had no historical impact on the Kentucky Derby since moving to early January at Aqueduct in 2011. Trained by Parx-based Harold Wyner, Capo Kane eased to the front shortly after the start under Dylan Davis, went quarter miles in :23.53, :24.30, and :24.79 for the first six furlongs in the one-turn mile before running his final quarter mile in :25.40 to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He was coming off a similar front-running score at Parx on Nov. 25 when he beat maidens by 4 1/2 lengths, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 73. He was given a Beyer of 84 in the Jerome.

Visually, Capo Kane looked OK, racing comfortably on the lead, but then drifted out in the stretch, probably more a matter of losing his focus more than anything else. He was the fourth betting choice in a five-horse field, with 7-5 favorite Swill chucking it in after prompting the early pace. Weak field in a historically weak race.

Grade: C-

Jan. 2: Mucho Macho Man Stakes, one mile, Gulfstream Park

Mutasaabeq was made the 11-10 favorite in this one-turn mile stakes at Gulfstream Park in his return to the dirt after two turf races, including an impressive last-to-first victory in the G2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. He then finished 10th in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the Into Mischief colt was purchased by Shadwell as a weanling for $425,000 at the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale and won his debut on dirt at Saratoga Aug. 8 as a well-intentioned 4-5 favorite. Next out he was third of seven runners in the G1 Hopeful on dirt, then shifted to turf for his next two starts.

Nine horses broke from the gate in the Mucho Macho Man, including two other stakes winners: Pickin' Time, winner of the G3 Nashua Nov. 8 at Aqueduct; and Big Thorn, who won a Florida-bred event at Gulfstream Nov. 22.

Unlike the Bourbon Stakes, where Mutasaabeq displayed a brilliant turn of foot from the three-eighths pole to the furlong marker to gain the advantage and draw off by 2 1/4 lengths, he was more of a grinder in the Mucho Macho Man.

Under Luis Saez, Mutasaabeq was kept in the clear to the outside of pacesetter Awesome Gerry in the long run down the backstretch. He engaged the leader on the turn for home under aggressive handling from Luis Saez and was kept to his task down the stretch to win off by 1 1/2 lengths. Papetu, a 20-1 outsider who hadn't raced since running fifth in the aforementioned Hopeful, kept Mutasaabeq honest down the lane, ultimately finishing 1 1/21 lengths back.

Final time was 1:35.98, with quarter-mile fractions of :23.70, :22.45, :23.81 and :26.02. The Beyer Speed Figure team gave Mutasaabeq an 87 for the effort, three points above his maiden-breaking effort at Saratoga last August.

Grade: C

Jan. 2: Sham Stakes, one mile, Santa Anita

There was a lot of hype here. The Sham Stakes has had some very good winners in the past (Colonel John, Tapizar, Goldencents, McKinzie), but Authentic put the race on the map in 2020 when he won by 7 3/4 lengths despite nearly going over the rail while goofing off down the stretch. The Into Mischief colt went on to win the G2 San Felipe, G1 Haskell, G1 Kentucky Derby, and G1 Breeders' Cup Classic for trainer Bob Baffert and is the Horse of the Year favorite.

Authentic earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in the 2020 Sham off a maiden win sprinting at Del Mar.

Life Is Good, like Authentic a son of Spendthrift Farm's leading stallion Into Mischief, earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure while breaking his maiden for Baffert in a Del Mar sprint on Nov. 22, drawing off by 9 1/2 lengths. Bred by Mary and Gary West Stable, Inc., he was purchased for $525,000 as a yearling at the Keeneland September Sale.

It's not surprising for Baffert to have the favorite in a graded stakes for horses being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but the debut of Life Is Good had the aura of a horse that was something special. He did not disappoint that day.

In the days leading up to the Swaps, Baffert downplayed Life Is Good's superiority, saying you never know if a horse can stretch out from sprint distances to two turns until they try it. Nevertheless, he went off the 1-5 favorite in a five-horse field that didn't include a single stakes winner. Second choice was Parnelli, a John Shirreffs-trained colt who needed four starts to break his maiden, earning a 79 Beyer for his win. Third choice was a second Baffert runner, Medina Spirit, a Florida-bred son of Protonico who sold for $1,000 as a yearling at the OBS winter sale and $35,000 at the OBS July Sale as a 2-year-old. He'd broken his maiden at Los Alamitos on Dec. 11 by three lengths, getting a 76 Beyer.

Under Mike Smith, Life Is Good broke from the outside No. 5 post and was in front into the first turn while four wide. Never challenged through the first six furlongs, he set fractions of :23.56, :23.11 and :23.99 while leading by three to four lengths, according to the Equibase chart.

With a furlong left and a four-length advantage, Life Is Good looked home free. But Abel Cedillo aboard Medina Spirit, who chased from second throughout, cut into that margin — gradually at first and then more dramatically in the final yards. As Medina Spirit gained on Life Is Good in the final sixteenth of a mile, Smith went to work on his mount (much as he did when he thought Authentic was home free in the Haskell, leading by 2 1/2 lengths at furlong pole and then barely holding on against Ny Traffic to win by a nose).

Life Is Good drifted out several paths late, possibly intimidating Medina Spirit and Cedillo, who wasn't able to give the most aggressive ride in the final yards. The winning margin was three-quarters of a length and the final quarter mile was run in :25.97. This was not the performance I was expecting to see.

The Beyer team gave Life Is Good a 101 Speed Figure, by far the fastest of the three weekend Derby preps.

Grade: B-

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