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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Life Is Good … Getting Better

Last week's grading period came and went without a Report Card on the winners of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes from Gulfstream Park, the G3 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn and the listed John Battaglia Memorial Stakes from Turfway Park. The author got a little behind on his homework.

We'll review those three races from Feb. 26-27 and three big 85 point Kentucky Derby preps that were run last Saturday: the G2 Gotham Stakes from Aqueduct, G2 Tampa Bay Derby from Tampa Bay Downs and G2 San Felipe Stakes from Santa Anita. The winners of those three races assured themselves a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 1.

Of the six races, I'd have to rank the San Felipe the most impactful, at least in recent history, with two of the last seven winners (Authentic in 2020 and California Chrome in 2014) having gone on to victory in the Kentucky Derby. At the other end of the spectrum is the John Battaglia Memorial which has a roster of winners that reads like a “who's that?” Strikingly more significant than the Battaglia is the Gotham, which hasn't produced a Kentucky Derby winner from among its winners since Triple Crown winner Secretariat in 1973. There have been some very good horses since then to win the Gotham, but not so much in the last decade. Let's face it: the best New York horses are still in Florida on the first Saturday in March.

Here's a quick analysis of all the points races of the past two weeks, from best to worst in terms of my grading scale, which is based on my personal eyeball test, Beyer Speed Figures received, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

March 6 – San Felipe Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

Was not that impressed with Life Is Good's G3 Sham Stakes victory on Jan. 2 when he idled down the stretch and was threatened late by Bob Baffert stablemate Medina Spirit, but the eight-length San Felipe win was something else again. The Into Mischief colt was simply too fast for his opposition, breaking from the rail under Mike Smith, controlling a quick pace (quarter miles in :23.63, :23.20, :23.72 and :24.91 before a final sixteenth in 6.72 seconds), and drawing off impressively while a bit erratic down the stretch, eventually finishing out in the middle of the track.

Life Is Good and Mike Smith winning the San Felipe Stakes by eight lengths

The San Felipe was G2 and included stakes veterans Medina Spirit, The Great One and Roman Centurian and impressive recent maiden winner Dream Shake for Peter Eurton (receiving a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on his debut).

Life Is Good received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure, up from his 101 in the Sham, and that puts him on the top of the heap at this stage of the season. Future wager players made him 2-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager's March pool, the lowest odds for any individual horse in the March pool since the wager was inaugurated.

Grade: A

Feb. 27 – Southwest Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn

It's hard to find fault with Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality, who ran his record to a perfect 4-for-4 while making his 2021 debut in the twice-delayed Southwest, run on a very sloppy racetrack. Breaking from the No. 1 post, jockey Luis Saez cleverly moved him to the three path into the first turn and sat just a few lengths behind quick but distance challenged Jackie's Warrior for a moderate six furlongs in 1:13.59. Saez moved the Tapit colt to the lead on the turn and it was quickly over as he drew off to a 4 ¼-length victory while demonstrating a paddling motion with his left front down the stretch.

Essential Quality rolled to his fourth consecutive win in the Southwest, his 2021 debut

Aside from the winner and Jackie's Warrior (a two-time G1 winner going one turn as a 2-year-old), the only other proven commodity in the Southwest lineup was Spielberg, the Baffert runner who won the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose over The Great One, a maiden at the time who came back to beat non-winners by 14 lengths and then was crushed by Life Is Good in the San Felipe. Essential Quality received a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, one point higher than his Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory.

Grade: A-

Feb. 27 – Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park

Not unlike Essential Quality in the Southwest, even-money favorite Greatest Honour (also by Tapit) was chasing a fast one-turn horse, Drain the Clock, unsuccessfully trying to stretch his speed around two turns in the Fountain of Youth.

For most of the race, the Shug McGaughey runner did not look comfortable while racing in eighth and ninth in the 10-horse field. When Jose Ortiz guided him five wide to the outside on the far turn, he took off, gaining five lengths in the final furlong and drawing away to a 1 ½-length victory. He received an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, identical to the number he got while winning the Holy Bull Stakes four weeks earlier.

Greatest Honour and Jose Ortiz winning the Fountain of Youth

However, he made up ground on a horse that doesn't want to go this far, and if Greatest Honour doesn't like getting dirt in his face with a 10-horse field at Gulfstream, what's it going to be like at Churchill Downs with an expected 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby? It doesn't appear as if his connections have an option to put him closer to the lead as he has yet to show any tactical speed.

Grade: B+

March 6 – Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs

Mark Casse-trained Helium first caught my eye last fall at Woodbine when he displayed a very nice turn of foot to win the listed Display Stakes going away. That race was on the Canadian track's Tapeta synthetic surface and Helium is from the first crop of Ironicus, a Distorted Humor stallion who only won on turf during his 15-race career from ages 2 to 5. I was skeptical that he could pack the same punch on dirt.

I was also skeptical of the Tampa Bay Derby favorite, Candy Man Rocket, who was coming off a win in the G3 Sam F. Davis over the same track that I graded a C- because it looked as though the Candy Ride colt was being stretched to the limit distance wise.

Helium had shown speed in his sprint starts at Woodbine and Casse's Plan A was for jockey Jose Ferrer to put him close to the lead. That went out the window when he broke slowly and had just two horses beat for the opening quarter mile.

Helium won for the third time in three starts, taking the Tampa Bay Derby under Jose Ferrer

Ferrer kept Helium to the far outside in the run down the backstretch and around the far turn, and Casse's runner was battling for the lead with front-running Boca Boy, who'd led and then tired in the stretch in the Sam F. Davis. Helium put him away, then was quickly joined by third-place Sam F. Davis finisher Hidden Stash, who pressed Helium for the final furlongs but couldn't get past, losing by three-quarters in a nice effort.

The winner's 84 Beyer Speed Figure compared favorably to his 75 on Tapeta last October but is low among the Derby prep race winners this winter. Casse has talked about not running the horse again before the Kentucky Derby, so although Helium would enter the classic unbeaten in three starts, he'd still be a pretty big price.

Grade: C+

March 6 – Gotham Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct

Chad Brown-trained Highly Motivated was the heavy favorite here as he made his first start since winning the listed Nyquist Stakes going 6 ½ furlongs at Keeneland on the Breeders' Cup undercard Nov. 6. He bobbled at the start, then had a nightmare trip with traffic in the early stages of this one-turn mile race. Second betting choice was Freedom Fighter, coming off a second-place finish in the G2 San Vicente at Santa Anita for Bob Baffert, losing to highly touted stablemate Concert Tour by a half-length.

Freedom Fighter broke sharply and led through moderate fractions while being dogged by 46-1 longshot Weyburn, a James Jerkens-trained colt by Pioneerof the Nile ridden by Trevor McCarthy. Weyburn put the Baffert runner away inside the quarter pole then was challenged by Chad Brown's other runner, Crowded Trade, who, like Weyburn broke his maiden this winter at Aqueduct. Crowded Trade, a More Than Ready colt, put his nose in front inside the furlong pole but Weyburn fought back in the final yards to prevail by a nose.

Weyburn (inside) re-rallied in deep stretch to win the Gotham over Crowded Trade

The top two horses received a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, with Highly Motivated finishing third, 1 ¾ lengths back after a tough trip, and earning a 92 Beyer. As I wrote in the intro, the best of the New York Thoroughbred population head south to Florida for the winter and both Weyburn and Crowded Trade remained in New York. Highly Motivated trained for his debut at Payson Park in Florida and probably will accomplish more than the two who beat him.

Grade: C

Feb. 26 – John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turfway Park

A workmanlike victory in his stakes debut gave the William Morey-trained Hush of a Storm 10 Kentucky Derby points in the Battaglia and he received an 86 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort.

The Creative Cause colt didn't do anything wrong in winning the Battaglia on the synthetic Tapeta surface at the Northern Kentucky track, but there was not a lot behind him, with the exception of Gretzky the Great, who'd won the G1 Summer Stakes on turf at Woodbine last year. He'll need more points, obviously, and the only way to earn them will be on the dirt and against much stiffer competition.

Grade: C-

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Upping The Ante For Kentucky Derby Points

The stakes got a lot bigger last Saturday for horses on the road to the Triple Crown with the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La. The nine-furlong race is the first of seven contests that will offer 85 Kentucky Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5 to the first four finishers), virtually assuring the winners will get into the Derby field.

The Kentucky Derby Championship Series also has eight races worth 170 points (100-40-20-10) and one race offering 34 points (20-8-4-2).

At Golden Gate Fields in Albany, Calif., the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby handed out 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1) and the winner gets free entry into the G1 Preakness Stakes.

A number of very good horses have come out of the Risen Star (formerly known as the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes, including the one-two finishers in 2019: War of Will, who would win that year's Preakness, and Country House, who was awarded the G1 Kentucky Derby via disqualification of Maximum Security for interference.

Three years earlier, the Risen Star was won by Gun Runner, who would go on to win the G2 Louisiana Derby, finish third in the Kentucky Derby, and take seven of his final eight career starts, capped by the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic and G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

The El Camino Real Derby's heyday was back in the 1980s and '90s, when a trio of Preakness winners were victorious in the race (Tank's Prospect in 1985, Snow Chief in '86 and Tabasco Cat, who also won the Belmont Stakes, in '94). Two El Camino winners went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby: Casual Lies in 1992 and Cavonnier in '96.

The race has had little impact on the Triple Crown since Golden Gate went to the Tapeta synthetic surface in 2007.

Following is a glance at the Risen Star and El Camino Real Derby, along with my grades for the winners, which are based on how the horses looked, what Beyer Speed Figure they received, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

Feb. 13 Risen Star Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Louisiana Downs

The three horses who finished within a length of each other in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds on Jan. 16 were back: Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte, with Proxy second and Mandaloun third. The late-running Senor Buscador, winner of the Springboard Mile last out at Remington Park in Oklahoma Dec. 18, was a new addition to a mostly local lineup of 11 starters.

Midnight Bourbon and jockey Joe Talamo did not get the lead as they did in the Lecomte, usurped by Rightandjust, who crossed over from the outside post and went pretty quickly for the opening quarter mile (:23.65). Midnight Bourbon raced off Rightandjust's right flank, about a length ahead of Mandaloun and Florent Geroux, who were three wide throughout but more engaged than in the Lecomte after the addition of blinkers by trainer Brad Cox. Proxy, with John Velazquez up, was a close fourth for the opening half mile, running in spurts and slipping back going into the far turn after a second quarter mile in :24.80 and a third quarter in :24.29 (for half-mile and six-furlong splits of :48.45 and 1:12.74).

Mandaloun winning the Risen Star, Florent Geroux aboard

Midnight Bourbon poked his head in front of Rightandjust inside the quarter pole but Mandaloun quickly was alongside and began to edge away from the Lecomte winner. The fourth quarter went in :24.76 and Mandaloun ran his final furlong in :12.89 for a final time of 1:50.39 on a fast track.

Proxy ran an uneven race but finished with interest out in the middle of the track, closing from four lengths back after six furlongs and two lengths back at the furlong pole to draw within a 1 ¼ lengths of the winner. If the son of Tapit out of the multiple G1 winner Panty Raid (by Include) puts it all together he will be a tough customer in a rematch with Mandaloun.

The winner received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, a big improvement from the 89 he got in the Lecomte and the third successive improved figure since his debut at Keeneland last fall. The blinkers, along with more racing experience, have turned Mandaloun into a very legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect for owner-breeder Juddmonte Farms and for Cox, who also has 2020 2-year-old male champion Essential Quality and Oaklawn's Smarty Jones winner Caddo River in his quiver.

Grade: B+

Feb. 13 El Camino Real Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Golden Gate Fields

Michael McCarthy-trained Rombauer was the 6-5 favorite while making his first start since a fifth-place finish behind Essential Quality in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last November 6. He was entered and scratched from the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30, reportedly at the request of the owners/breeders, John and Diane Fradkin, who preferred the El Camino Real Derby.

This was the Twirling Candy colt's first race over a synthetic surface, though he began his career on turf, winning his debut last July going a mile at Del Mar, then finished sixth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. He then ran a good second on dirt to Get Her Number in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Sept. 26. Then came the Breeders' Cup, in which Rombauer broke from the 13 post in a 14-horse field, was 13 lengths back after a half mile, weaved through traffic and gained steadily in the short stretch at Keeneland to be beaten 6 ¼ lengths.

Rombauer and Kyle Frey defeat Javanica in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields

In the El Camino Real, Rombauer dropped back to last under Kyle Frey as It's My House set steady fractions of :24.00, :47.81 and 1:12.20 for six furlongs. Frey made a wide move on the turn and was up in the final yards to beat the filly Javanica by a neck, completing the distance in 1:51.64 after a mile in 1:38.56. Javanica, a Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d'Oro trained by Eoin Harty, was finishing second for the fourth consecutive stakes, beginning with the Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine last October.

Rombauer received an 84 Beyer Speed Figure, compared to an 85 for his Breeders' Cup effort. This was not a particular strong field (the only two stakes winners won races restricted to California-breds) but a good stepping stone for Rombauer to prepare for much tougher competition down the road.

Grade: C

The only upcoming weekend Kentucky Derby points race is the Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse that is part of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Previously:

Feb 9 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Feb 2 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan 26 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: No Risk, No Reward

A trio of graded stakes for 3-year-olds on the Triple Crown trail was contested on Feb. 6, and all three races – two of which offered 17 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 10-4-2-1 basis to the top four finishers – look more like steppingstones than definitive contests. Most of the horses contesting these races were unproven at the stakes level, but you have to start somewhere. No risk, no reward.

None of the weekend's races has been overly productive for Triple Crown success.

The Grade 3 Withers has been around since 1874, run at different New York tracks but only moved to February at Aqueduct in 2012. Before that, Bernardini used the Withers in 2006 as a tune-up for his victory in the G1 Preakness Stakes. No winner since has been victorious in a Triple Crown race.

The G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs has been a gateway race to bigger and better things for several horses in recent years. Most notably, Tapwrit, the Davis runner-up to McCraken in 2017, would win that year's G1 Belmont Stakes, doing one better than 2016 Davis winner Destin, who fell a nose short of Creator in the Belmont. Both Tapwrit and Destin were trained by Todd Pletcher.

Finally, the G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita – the only one of the three races not offering Kentucky Derby points – has a solid roster of winners led by 1997 Kentucky Derby-Preakness victor Silver Charm and by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. At seven furlongs, it's often used as a starting point for 3-year-olds getting ready to stretch out to longer distances.

Before we look at those three race winners, there was also a highly anticipated maiden event on Sunday at Santa Anita involving one of the most hyped horses of the year, Bezos, a colt by Empire Maker from the Bob Baffert stable. The massive colt, weighing in at over 1,300 pounds, was being compared to horses like Triple Crown winner Justify, who didn't make his first start until mid-February. Bezos had trained forwardly last year, from early May through late July. Baffert backed off until late in the year, with the colt breezing 10 times from early December until his debut, where he was made the 3-5 favorite.

Bezos, ridden by Mike Smith, got a perfect trip in the 6 ½-furlong race, sitting just behind dueling pacesetters for the opening half mile. But when the field turned for home, Bezos came up empty, winding up seventh of nine runners, beaten 15 ¼ lengths by a 20-1 longshot named Dream Shake, a Twirling Candy colt making his career debut for Peter Eurton.

Dream Shake is geared down nearing the wire by Joel Rosario

With Joel Rosario in the saddle, Dream Shake broke alertly from the outside post and remained wide throughout. Eighth after the opening quarter mile (in a slow :23.40), Dream Shake made a strong run from inside the half mile pole to the quarter pole that brought him into contention. He quickly moved to the lead while still wide, was under an aggressive hand ride from Rosario and got one tap of the whip in midstretch while pulling away. He was wrapped up in the end, winning by 4 ¾ lengths in 1:17.34 on a fast track and earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure that was higher than any of the weekend Triple Crown prep stakes winners.

Bred by Dunwoody Farm, Dream Shake was a $32,000 pinhook from the Keeneland September Yearling Sale that Cary Frommer sold for $75,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-year-olds in training. He races for Exline-Border Racing, SAF Racing and Richard Hausman.

Now, on to the three stakes races. My Report Card grades are on an A to F scale and are subjective, based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

Feb. 6 Withers Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct

Risk Taking was made the 19-10 favorite off a solid maiden win in his third career start on Dec. 13 going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct. Trainer Chad Brown debuted the Medaglia d'Oro colt sprinting at Belmont October 10 when he raced in seventh throughout. Next start was going 1 1/16 miles on turf, where Risk Taking was a non-threatening sixth. Blinkers were added for his maiden-breaking score and that seems to have awakened Risk Taking.

Risk Taking and Eric Cancel at the wire in the Withers

The Withers field included Capo Kane, the runaway winner of the one-turn Jerome Stakes (graded by me as a C-) on Jan. 1, and Jerome runner-up Eagle Orb. As expected, Capo Kane set the pace, with Eric Cancel keeping Risk Taking in a pocket while racing sixth in the early going. Approaching the far turn, Cancel found a seam and gradually began to gain on the leader, turning into the stretch less than three lengths behind, then ranging up alongside and passing the drifting out leader, Capo Kane, in the final furlong. Risk Taking drew off to win by 3 ¾ lengths, stopping the clock in 1:51.91 and getting an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, a big improvement from his maiden breaking 82 Beyer. Todd Pletcher-trained Overtook, a lumbering Curlin colt coming off a maiden win going one mile, was up for second after trailing early.

Neither the winner or the runner-up showed any early speed or quick acceleration, but both look like further distances would be no problem. There's probably a reason both Risk Taking and Overtook were left in New York for the winter rather than head to Florida where the waters are a little deeper for Triple Crown hopefuls.

From a pedigree standpoint, Risk Taking is by a proven stallion who has sired Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, the brilliant Songbird, and G1 Breeders' Cup Turf winner Talismanic. Risk Taking, bred by G. Watts Humphrey Jr., is out of the Distorted Humor mare Run a Risk and traces back to a very successful female family developed by Ogden Phipps, including fourth dam Con Game, who produced Seeking the Gold and Fast Play, and fifth dam Broadway, who produced Ruffian's sire Reviewer. Risk Taking was purchased on behalf of Seth Klarman's Klaravich Stables for $240,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Grade C

Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs

Todd Pletcher-trained Known Agenda was made the 3-2 favorite in the field of 12 in this 1 1/16-mile race, but 3-1 second choice Candy Man Rocket got the job done in workmanlike fashion in his first time around two turns for trainer Bill Mott. The Candy Ride colt, ridden by Junior Alvarado and owned by Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, was one length the best over stablemate Nova Rags (by Union Rags), who had the benefit of a race over the track (winning the Pasco on Jan. 16 and getting a grade of D from me) but also making his two-turn debut.

The third-place finisher, Hidden Stash, gained 4 1/4 lengths on the winner in the final furlong, according to the Equibase chart, and visually did not appear to be accelerating as much as the winner was slowing down.

The final time of 1:44.30 came after a six-furlong clocking of 1:10.80 and mile split in 1:37.22, meaning a final sixteenth in 7.08 seconds and a final five-sixteenths in 33.50. The winner received a Beyer Speed Figure of 85, the same as his maiden win.

Candy Man Rocket and jockey Junior Alvarado winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes

My first thought after watching the Davis was that Bill Mott is not the kind of trainer who is going to try to pound a square peg into a round hole. Candy Man Rocket looked sensational sprinting to a 9 ¼-length victory at Gulfstream Park Jan. 9 in his second career start. He was good enough to win at 1 1/16 miles over a fairly weak field, but it's hard to make a case that he's going to get better as the races get longer. I would not be surprised to see this colt doing his best racing at seven furlongs to a mile in the spring and summer.

From a pedigree standpoint, Candy Ride has been very successful at stud and was a classic-distance winner himself. Like Risk Taking, the real quality in Candy Man Rocket's female family is in the fourth generation where you find 1983 Broodmare of the Year Courtly Dee, dam of Althea and other stakes winners.

Grade C-

Feb. 6 San Vicente Stakes, seven furlongs, Santa Anita

Gary and Mary West's homebred Street Sense colt Concert Tour was favored at 2-5 but was all out to get by Bob Baffert stablemate Freedom Fighter (by Violence) to take down the winner's share of the $200,000 purse. The latter, away at 5-1 odds, set the early pace in a five-horse field, dueled with the quick California-bred gelding The Chosen Vron, then forgot to read the odds board as he continued to roll down the stretch, not giving way to Concert Tour until the very end, beaten a half length. That was Freedom Fighter's first start since winning his debut at Del Mar Aug. 1 at 1-2 odds, prevailing by a head in a five-furlong tilt.

Concert Tour (outside) overtakes Freedom Fighter in deep stretch to win the San Vicente

The winner also won his debut on Jan. 15 at even money, earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure (compared to Freedom Fighter's 79 last year).

Baffert has won this race 11 times since Silver Charm's victory in 1997 and said after Concert Tour's victory that he likes using it as a progression for horses like Nadal, the 2020 winner who then stretched out to two turns, taking both the G2 Rebel and a division of the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Don't be surprised to see Concert Tour try a similar path, as Baffert's No. 1 Derby prospect, Life Is Good, will remain at Santa Anita to contest the G2 San Felipe Stakes on March 6.

Sire Street Sense was precocious enough to win the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at two and won four of eight starts at three, including the Kentucky Derby and G1 Travers at 1 ¼ miles. Concert Tour's dam, Purse Strings (by Tapit), wasn't the most successful racemare, not breaking her maiden until her 12^th career start and never racing again, but she appears to have produced a good one in Concert Tour.

Grade B

Coming up this Presidents' Day weekend are the G2 Risen Star from Fair Grounds on Saturday and Monday's G3 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn.

Previously:

Feb 2 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan 26 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: A Tale Of Two Pedigrees

Two Grade 3 races on each coast, the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in South Florida and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in Southern California, were run on Saturday, offering 17 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1).

The last time the Holy Bull Stakes winner went on to victory in the G1 Kentucky Derby was in 2006 when Barbaro, making his dirt track debut after winning his first three career starts on turf, scored by three-quarters of a length on a sloppy track. Before that, when the race was known as the Preview Stakes, Go for Gin was victorious en route to capturing the 1994 Kentucky Derby. Some very good horses have won the Holy Bull, including the 2020 winner Tiz the Law, who opened last year's disjointed Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont Stakes.

Prior to 2007, the Robert B. Lewis was known as the Santa Catalina Stakes, which was first run in 1935. It's had different conditions over the years but in recent decades has been restricted to 3-year-olds. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another won the Lewis in 2012 and Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand won it in 1986. Like the Holy Bull, many winners of this early season race for 3-year-olds have gone on to bigger and better things.

Here's a brief look at each race, with my Report Card grade for the winner. The A to F grading system is subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical signifidance of the race and perceived quality of field.

Jan 30 Holy Bull Stakes 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream

The 11-10 favorite in the Holy Bull was Prime Factor, a $900,000 yearling purchase and winner by 8 ¾ lengths for Todd Pletcher in his only career start while sprinting six furlongs at Gulfstream on Dec. 12. Greatest Honour, bred and owned by Courtlandt Farm and trained by Shug McGaughey, needed four starts to break his maiden, doing so in his Gulfstream debut Dec. 26 at 1-2 odds, coming from off the pace to win by 1 ½ lengths. He was the 5-2 second choice in the betting in the Holy Bull.

Jose Ortiz and Greatest Honour at the wire in the Holy Bull Stakes

Gulfstream Park is not the kind of racetrack where I expect a horse to come from far off the pace to win, and that made Greatest Honour's powerful 5 3/4-length victory that much more impressive.

Rated in seventh of nine runners early by Jose Ortiz, the Tapit colt gained ground in the run down the backstretch, made a bold move on the outside rounding the far turn, took command with a quarter mile to run and ran straight as a string down the stretch as he drew off under mild encouragement.

Final time of the Holy Bull was 1:43.19 after fractions of :23.28, :46.97, 1:11.36 and 1:36.58. The winner was given an 89 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort, an improvement from his maiden-breaking 83.

While some of the Holy Bull runners may go on to bigger and better things (Prime Factor ran a decent third in his first try around two turns), the field as a whole had not accomplished much going into the race. The lone stakes winner was Sittin On Go, who won the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs in his second start but then was off the board in two subsequent starts. The late-running horse from the Dale Romans barn ran sixth.

There is a lot to like about Greatest Honour's pedigree beyond him being a son of Tapit. The colt was produced from the Street Cry mare Tiffany's Honour, a half sister to back-to-back Belmont Stakes winners Jazil and Rags to Riches. Those successes led to their dam, G2 Demoiselle Stakes winner Better Than Honour, being named Broodmare of the Year by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Association/Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders. Better Than Honour was produced by G1 Kentucky Oaks winner Blush With Pride, whose dam, Best in Show, was also named Broodmare of the Year. When two of a horse's first four dams were Broodmare of the Year, that is a strong female family.

The year she foaled Greatest Honour, Tiffany's Honour was sold to leading Japanese breeder Katsumi Yoshida of Northern Farm at the 2018 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale for $2.2 million while believed in foal to Medaglia d'Oro.

Grade: A-

Jan. 30 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

With a barn full of royally bred and expensive yearling and 2-year-old in training purchases, is it possible that trainer Bob Baffert's best prospect for the 2021 Triple Crown is a Florida-bred who changed hands for $1,000 as a yearling at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Company's 2019 Winter Mixed Sale?

That horse, Medina Spirit, a son of the Giant's Causeway stallion Protonico, increased in value but was still a bargain at $35,000 when clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young bought him from Whitman Sales for $35,000 on behalf of Zedan Racing Stables at the 2020 OBS July Sale of 2-year-olds in training and horses of racing age.

Medina Spirit has been the “other Baffert” twice. The first time came in his debut when stablemate Democrat fizzled as the favorite and Medina Spririt won by three lengths going 5 ½ furlongs at Los Alamitos. Next out, in the G3 Sham on Jan. 2, some thought Medina Spirit (sent off at 9-1) was entered by Baffert to make sure the race would fill (only four others entered). The hotshot 1-5 Sham favorite was Life Is Good, who made a dazzling impression in his debut, getting a 91 Beyer Speed Figure (Medina Spirit got a 76 Beyer in his debut). Life Is Good looked well on his way to living up to his top billing in the Sham until Medina Spirit, racing in second throughout, gained 3 ¼ lengths on his stablemate in the final furlong, cutting the winning margin to just three-quarters of a length.

Medina Spirit (inside) fought off Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie the length of the stretch to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes

For the Lewis, Medina Spirit was the even-money favorite, with his stablemate, the $1-million yearling purchase and G2 Los Alamitos Futurity winner Spielberg, playing second fiddle in the Baffert barn. The latter was a non-factor in a race where Medina Spirit was pushed early by Wipe the Slate and Parnelli through fast fractions of :22.89 and :46.61. The third quarter was a dawdling :25.75 for six furlongs in 1:12.36 and the fourth quarter of 26.98 made the mile time 1:39.34. The times are slow on paper, but Santa Anita's main track was listed as good after heavy rains hit the previous two days.

Medina Spirit put away the chasers (they finished about 20 lengths behind him at the wire), but was under attack down the stretch from Hot Rod Charlie and Roman Centurian. The former, an Oxbow colt trained by Doug O'Neill, was making his first start since finishing second at 94-1 odds in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, beaten three-quarters of a length by champion Essential Quality. The latter, an Empire Maker colt trained by Simon Callaghan, graduated from the maiden ranks in his second start and first around two turns at Santa Anita on Jan. 3.

Both Hot Rod Charlie, racing between horses, and Roman Centurian to the outside, appeared to have all the momentum as they hooked up with Medina Spirit at the top of the stretch. But Medina Spirit never yielded, holding his two rivals at bay at the wire and then continuing to gallop out ahead of them. Roman Centurian, at 11-1, finished second by a neck, just a nose ahead of 5-2 second choice Hot Rod Charlie.

Final time for the Lewis was 1:46.26, and the top three finishers all received Beyer Speed Figures of 91.

Medina Spirit is from the first crop of foals by Protonico, who certainly has stamina in his pedigree, being by Giant's Causeway and out of an A.P. Indy mare. There's not much black type on Medina Spirit's catalogue page (until you get to the fourth dam), but his dam, Mongolian Changa, is a daughter of the Dynaformer stallion Brilliant Speed, who won the G1 Blue Grass Stakes when Keeneland had a Polytrack synthetic surface.

Once a horse is a proven runner, pedigree doesn't matter nearly as much. I'm reminded of that when I look at the remarkable racing career and the relatively obscure pedigree of Holy Bull, a son of the Minnesota Mac stallion Great Above out of a mare by Al Hattab.

Grade B

Previously: Jan 26 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

The post Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: A Tale Of Two Pedigrees appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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