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Are Horses More Likely to Break Down on Wet Tracks? The Stats Say No

Are wet tracks more dangerous than dry ones? According to statistics compiled by the Jockey Club, the answer is no.

The TDN reached out to The Jockey Club and asked it to dig into the Equine Injury Database and provide us with statistics regarding breakdowns and various dirt track and turf course conditions. The study was conducted by Dr. Euan Bennet and Professor Tim Parkin and covered the years 2021 and 2022.

On the dirt, there were 419 fatalities on tracks listed as fast during those years from 308,954 starts. That comes out to 1.36 deaths per 1,000 starts. The numbers varied little on tracks listed as something other than fast. Below are the statistics covering all track designations:

Condition       Starts              Fatalities          Fatalities Per 1k starts
Fast                  308,954                 419 1.36
Frozen              29 0 0.00
Good                22,147 38 1.72
Heavy               95 0 0.00
Muddy             17,936 22 1.23
Sloppy              25,085                   36                                 1.44
Slow                  58                           0 0.00
Wet Fast         2,541 3 1.18

The possibility that track conditions were a factor in breakdowns came into play in 2019 when 30 horses died at Santa Anita in what was an unusually wet period in Southern California. Since, 1/ST racing, which owns Santa Anita, has been cautious when it comes to inclement weather and has, on a number of occasions, canceled racing on days when there has been a lot of rain.

When it comes to turf racing, the numbers look similar. On courses listed as firm there were 91 fatalities from 81,434 starts. That comes out to 1.12 deaths per 1,000 starts, again, in line with all other course conditions. Below are the statistics covering course conditions in the grass.

Condition       Starts              Fatalities          Fatalities Per 1k starts
Firm                  81,434                   91 1.12
Good                12,542                   9 0.72
Soft                   175 0                                   0.0
Yielding            1,567                     2 1.28

“For the two years of data studied–2021 and 2022–there were no statistically significant differences in incidences of fatality found to be associated with track condition on either dirt or turf surfaces, Bennet and Parkin concluded.

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Concerns Over Track Conditions, Veterinary Shortage as Turf Paradise Meet Looms

Once again, issues of horse and rider safety at Turf Paradise were a bone of contention during the latest Arizona Racing Commission meeting Thursday, due to a shortage of attending veterinarians at the track and concerns over the overall state of the facility.

The upcoming Turf Paradise meet is scheduled to start on Nov. 5 and run through May 7 next year. There are roughly between 664 and 700 horses currently stabled and training there, with around 1,500 eventually anticipated.

But according to Sue Gale, the Arizona Department of Gaming's chief veterinarian, those horses are attended by a shortage of active veterinarians.

“The main concern that we have, found out that several veterinarians that practice on the backside were not returning to Turf this year,” said Gale, about the venue switch from the recently concluded Arizona Downs meet to the upcoming Turf Paradise meet.

Gale stressed that this shortage applies to attending veterinarians only, not official veterinarians, and she doesn't envisage the scarcity would necessitate a halt to racing.

Nevertheless, Gale added, “it would be a good idea to put some information out to the various practicing vets in the area because certainly there is an opportunity to pick up some work.”

Several stakeholders raised during the meeting concerns over the general condition of the track surface and facility itself–an ongoing problem highlighted by a 2020-21 Turf Paradise race-meet marred by a high number of equine fatalities.

During the whole of 2020 and as of Aug. 19, 2021, 67 Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses have suffered equine fatalities at Turf Paradise–18 during morning training, 31 during racing, and 18 due to other circumstances–according to a TDN public records act request.

During Thursday's meeting, Gale provided a state-wide update on equine fatality numbers.

According to Gale, there have been 15 race-day fatalities in Arizona so far this year: Two at Arizona Downs (which ran June 1 through Sept. 15) and 13 at Turf Paradise.

This works out, Gale added, to a rate of 1.94 fatalities per 1,000 starts–currently lower than the 2020 statewide rate in Arizona of 3.11.

The 2020 national average was 1.41 per 1,000 starts.

In discussing some of the factors underpinning these numbers, Gale zeroed in on two key variables. The first concerned a lack of comprehensive historical record keeping in evaluating horse soundness.

“We have been doing pre-race exams,” Gale said. “However, we have not been maintaining the records and not making full use of the history of the horses in order to direct greater scrutiny to those horses that might be at higher risk.”

The second concerned a lack of thorough and consistent track surface maintenance standards.

“This requires looking at the composition of the surface, the consistency of that, the depth of the cushion of the surface, the moisture content and what maintenance is done,” said Gale.

During the public comment period, several industry stakeholders took aim at the track conditions and safety protocols at Turf Paradise.

These criticisms included a shortage of outriders and compromised rail support beams that could prove potentially dangerous in the event of a horse collision.

“This surface is not right,” warned trainer Kevin Eikleberry. “We have some purse money–we should have a very good meet. But if we have a racetrack like we have right now, we will not. We will have more breakdowns than we can handle.”

Turf Paradise general manager, Vincent Francia, didn't directly address these criticisms.

Earlier in the meeting, however, Francia explained that much of the work has been completed to prepare the facility for the start of the meet. This includes an apparent fix to a problem with the facility's water trucks, said Francia.

“Should something give us a challenge with one of our water trucks, we have plans to make sure water is put on the track,” said Francia.

When pressed by one of the commissioners, Rudy Casillas, the gaming department's deputy director, explained that the department routinely visits Turf Paradise to conduct inspections, and provides the operators with “updated information” about their findings.

“We've given Turf [Paradise] up until the 20th to get certain things completed and repaired,” Casillas added. “We will continue to monitor as we go forward.”

During the meeting, Leroy Gessmann, the Arizona Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association's executive director, broached the impending implementation of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA), and its potential effects on the state industry.

His presentation hit many of the key topics of conversation around the federal bill, including the currently unanswered question of cost, and the status of the various lawsuits against HISA.

“USADA will take over the testing,” Gessman said, of the United States Anti-Doping Agency. “If there is a bad test, they are going to take over the hearings, so, the hearings won't be done any longer by your stewards for Thoroughbreds.”

(TDN recently reported that there'll likely be a tiered approach in the beginning, with the severity of the infraction governing which set of regulatory personnel–either the state stewards or USADA's–will handle such a hearing)

“HISA has put together a committee, I believe it's two or three people, that have started going around to different jurisdictions to meet with the commissions and are giving them a preview of all this information,” said Gessman.

“I would say someone will be contacting the department shortly and you guys will be getting a visit on how things are going to go,” he added.

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France Galop Adds GoingStick To Its Toolbox For Pre-Race Information

In addition to the penetrometer, which remains the reference tool, France Galop is now offering a much greater range of information regarding the going in flat pattern races (Groups 1, 2, 3 and Listed). This new service will be used for the first time in France on Aug. 7 at the Deauville racecourse, during the Deauville Barrière Meeting, which boasts a high number of Group and Listed races.

France Galop has chosen the GoingStick, a device developed by the British technology company TurfTrax. Measurements taken will provide unprecedented data resulting from a method that takes into account the penetration and, what is new, the shear of the turf. In the United Kingdom, publication of GoingStick readings is mandatory for all turf meetings.

The additional data published for major events is in line with international standards and will be of interest to French and international trainers with starters in these pattern races, as well as punters and racecourse groundsmen.

A total of 68 race meetings per year will benefit from this technology.

The British TurfTrax developed technology is an established method used in England, Ireland, Germany, Australia, and Japan. Readings collected at racecourses that use the GoingStick can be found in English and French on https://www.turftrax.co.uk/

Based on the model of the penetrometer, which remains the reference tool at all French racecourses, a series of readings will be taken on the day before the meeting with the GoingStick.

At each point, the GoingStick takes two measurements to produce an overall reading:

1. The bevelled blade is first driven into the track, measuring the amount of force required to push the tip into the ground

2. The device is then pulled back to a 45-degree angle, measuring the energy needed to pull back to an angle of 45 degrees from the ground

The information published during Group and listed races will be assembled on the TurfTrax website, accessible free of charge and without the obligation of creating an account. It will be presented in a detailed chart that will offer a wider range of data.

Tests carried out by France Galop over the past year have shown that ground readings measured with the GoingStick are consistent with that of the penetrometer. One essential difference is that the TurfTrax data is published according to the British scale.

Comparison of the two scales:

Penetrometer scale: The penetrometer scale, which has been in use in France since 1970, has 10 levels. It is expressed in mm and gives an average reading of ground penetration taken at various measuring points across the whole track (each time at 2 and 3 meters from the rail): at each measuring point, a weight of 1kg is dropped 3 times from a height of 1m along the penetrometer, which falls onto a 1cm² rod. The penetrometer then reads the depth to which the rod has sunk.

TurfTrax GoingStick scale: The GoingStick scale, which is also based on measurements taken along the track, is based on resistance. The greater the resistance, the firmer the ground, and vice versa. This scale has 7 levels. However, the British do not have a description for “very soft” or “holding” ground, but go straight from “soft” to “heavy.”

Information is published on the TurfTrax website (https://www.turftrax.co.uk/) in an identical manner to the penetrometer readings published on the France Galop website, namely:

– Entries at 10:00 am
– Final declarations at 10:00 am
– Pre-race race meeting before 10 am
– Race day at 10:00 am

GoingStick ground readings will be available on the Turftrax website and will be presented in form of a map showing the layout of the track. Where appropriate, different colors may be used to show any differences in ground conditions from one area to another.

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