Epicenter Morning-Line Favorite in Final Derby Future Wager

Fans will have the final pari-mutuel opportunity to bet on this year's GI Kentucky Derby in advance of the May 7 race beginning Thursday at noon ET through Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET for Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (“KDFW”). Pool 5 of the KDFW features 24 betting interests and the 5-1 early morning-line favorite is Winchell Thoroughbreds' GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (Not This Time).

Unlike the previous three-day Kentucky Derby Future Wager opportunities, Pool 5 will feature an early start Thursday and will close Saturday prior to the first Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series event held that day. Nine individual betting interests in Saturday's pool are expected to run in that day's GI Toyota Blue Grass S., GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and GII Wood Memorial S.

Here is the complete field for Pool 5 of the KDFW (with sire, trainer and morning-line odds): #1 Barber Road (Race Day, John Ortiz, 50-1); #2 Charge It (Tapit, Todd Pletcher, 12-1); #3 Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}, Koichi Shintani, 50-1); #4 Cyberknife (Gun Runner, Brad Cox, 12-1); #5 Early Voting (Gun Runner, Chad Brown, 20-1); #6 Emmanuel (More Than Ready, Pletcher, 20-1); #7 Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, 5-1); #8 Ethereal Road (Quality Road, D. Wayne Lukas, 50-1); #9 Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah, Richard Mandella, 8-1); #10 In Due Time (Not This Time, Kelly Breen, 50-1); #11 Messier (Empire Maker, Tim Yakteen, 8-1); #12 Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo, Pletcher, 20-1); #13 Morello (Classic Empire, Asmussen, 20-1); #14 Pioneer of Medina (Pioneerof the Nile Pletcher, 30-1); #15 Simplification (Not This Time, Antonio Sano, 15-1): #16 Slow Down Andy (Nyquist, Doug O'Neill, 50-1); #17 Smile Happy (Runhappy, Kenny McPeek, 6-1); #18 Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front, Bhupat Seemar, 50-1); #19 Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile, Cox, 50-1); #20 Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb, McPeek, 12-1); #21 White Abarrio (Race Day, Saffie Joseph, Jr., 8-1); #22 Zandon (Upstart, Brown, 20-1); #23 Zozos (Munnings, Cox, 30-1); #24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (15-1).

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TOBA: Blue Grass Back to Grade I

The American Graded Stakes Committee of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association Friday announced the results of its annual grading session conducted Jan. 26 and 27 to determine U.S. Graded and Listed stakes races for February 2022 through January 2023.

The Committee reviewed 891 U.S. stakes races with a purse of at least $75,000, and assigned Graded status to 449 of them–four more than were graded in 2021, and Listed status to 204 races. Eight Graded races were upgraded and three new Grade I, five new Grade II races and 13 new Grade III races were named. Twenty new Listed races and two new Listed-Restricted races were upgraded from non-Listed Black Type status.

Among the most notable changes was the upgrading of Keeneland's Toyota Blue Grass from Grade II status back to Grade I. Keeneland's major GI Kentucky Derby prep had been downgraded prior to the 2017 running. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and New York S. at Belmont Park also go from Grade II to Grade I for 2022.

Two races were downgraded from Grade I to Grade II status: the Secretariat S. at Arlington Park and Flower Bowl S. at Saratoga.

Five races were upgraded to Grade II status: the Lukas Classic S. at Churchill Downs; Wonder Again S. and Bed o' Roses S. at Belmont Park; Fanduel Turf Sprint S. at Kentucky Downs; and Shuvee S. at Saratoga.

Four races were downgraded from Grade II to Grade III status: the Falls City S. at Churchill Downs; Best Pal S. at Del Mar; and Adirondack S. and Bernard Baruch H. at Saratoga.

Thirteen races were upgraded to Grade III status: the Jockey Club Derby Invitational S., Jockey Club Oaks Invitational S. and Pebbles S. at Belmont Park; Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs; Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. at Del Mar; Bryan Station S. at Keeneland; Dueling Grounds Derby and Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon S. at Kentucky Downs; Essex H., Hot Springs S. and Oaklawn Mile S. at Oaklawn Park; and Surfer Girl S. and Zuma Beach S. at Santa Anita Park.

Nine races were downgraded from Grade III to Listed status: the Excelsior S. at Aqueduct; Bashford Manor S. at Churchill Downs; Longacres Mile H. at Emerald Downs; Gulfstream Park Sprint S. at Gulfstream Park; Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. at Laurel Park; Los Alamitos Derby at Los Alamitos Race Course; Parx Dash S. at Parx Racing; and Astra S. and Lazaro Barrera S. at Santa Anita Park.

Twenty races were upgraded to Listed status: the Awad S. and Winter Memories S. at Aqueduct; Blame S., Kelly's Landing S., Mamzelle Overnight S., Mighty Beau Overnight S., Opening Verse Overnight S., Shawnee S., and Unbridled Sidney S. at Churchill Downs; Marie G. Krantz Memorial S. at Fair Grounds; Limestone Turf Sprint S., Palisades Turf Sprint S., and Perryville S. at Keeneland; Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile S. and Music City S. at Kentucky Downs; Temperence Hill S. at Oaklawn Park; Prince George's County S. at Pimlico; Baffle S. and Speakeasy S. at Santa Anita Park; and Galway S. at Saratoga.

Two races were upgraded to Listed-Restricted status: the Oceanside S. at Del Mar and One Dreamer S. at Kentucky Downs.

Nine races were downgraded from Listed to non-Listed Black Type status: the Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington Park; Mystic Lake Derby at Canterbury Park; Indiana General Assembly Distaff S., Indiana Grand S. and Mari Hulman George Memorial S. at Indiana Grand; Dave's Friend S. at Laurel Park; Satin and Lace S. at Presque Isle Downs; She's All In S. at Remington Park; and Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park.

All Graded and Listed races from 2021 maintained their eligibility for February 2022 through January 2023. Of the 449 Graded stakes races determined by the AGSC, 101 are Grade I's (22.5%), 135 are Grade II's (30.1%) and 213 are Grade III's (47.4%).

For the complete list of Graded and Listed stakes, click here.

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Rombauer Confirmed for Preakness

John and Diane Fradkin's Rombauer (Twirling Candy), third in the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. in his most recent start, is headed to the May 15 GI Preakness S. at Pimlico Race Course.

“That's the plan,” trainer Michael McCarthy told the Pimlico notes team Monday.

The homebred automatically qualified for a starting berth in the 146th Preakness with his victory in the El Camino Real Derby Feb. 13 at Golden Gate Fields. He was third, beaten 5 3/4 lengths in the Blue Grass behind champion Essential Quality (Tapit) and Highly Motivated (Nyquist), who finished fourth and 10th, respectively, in Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby. Rombauer ran second by three-quarters of a length in the GI American Pharoah Sept. 26 at Santa Anita and completed his 2-year-old season with a fifth in the GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Nov. 6 at Keeneland.

“He's done everything and made a nice little progression from 2 to 3,” McCarthy said. “He's put on a little weight. He's a horse that takes pretty good care of himself, so he's been pretty easy that way.”

McCarthy said that Rombauer will have his final work at Santa Anita and will ship to Pimlico early next week.

Get Her Number (Dialed In), who defeated Rombauer in the American Pharoah, will not run in the Preakness, trainer Peter Miller said Monday.

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Week in Review: Out of Nowhere, Rock Your World Emerges as Serious Derby Threat

When Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}) won the Pasadena S. at Santa Anita Mar. 6, it appeared that he could develop into a quality turf horse, who, like many horses trained by John Sadler, would take a while to fully develop. But Sadler had other ideas. This was going to be his GI Kentucky Derby horse.

“He had always trained well on the dirt,” Sadler said. “Sometimes you run on turf when you don't think they are training well on dirt. He was training well on dirt, but we decided the way to develop him was to start him on the grass and then switch him over. Until they have run on it you can't be 100 % confident, but it wasn't like he had never trained well on the dirt.”

It was easy to overlook Rock Your World in Saturday's GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. He had never run on the dirt, had never run particularly fast and was going up against a Bob Baffert-trained heavy favorite in Medina Spirit (Protonico) in a race that Baffert has dominated. He easily could have been a non-factor before returning to the grass.

Based on what we saw Saturday, Rock Your World has run in his last grass race. After setting the pace, he drew off to win by 4 1/4 lengths and earn a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. With Life Is Good (Into Mischief) on the sidelines, he is the only active 3-year-old to run a figure in the triple digits. Another plus is his running style. He led every step of the way in the Santa Anita Derby under Umberto Rispoli, but doesn't have to have the lead. It's easy to envision him sitting fourth early in the Kentucky Derby, getting the ideal trip. Then there's his breeding. A mile-and-a-quarter will not be a problem.

“What I like most about my horse is with the way he is bred, we always felt the further the better,” Sadler said. “You have Empire Maker on the dam's side and Candy Ride on the top side. I really feel with the way he moves that more distance will be good for him.”

This could be the type of breakthrough 3-year-old Sadler has been waiting for since beginning his career in 1978. While he has excelled with older dirt horses, he's never had a horse good enough to make his presence felt in the Triple Crown races. Sadler is 0-for-4 in the Derby and his best finish came with Corby, who was sixth, in 1993. It took him 17 years to get back to the Derby, and his three starters since 2010 have not finished better than 13th.

“I didn't sleep last night,” Sadler said Sunday morning. “I guess that gives you an indication of how I'm feeling about this. I feel this will be the best chance I've ever had to win the Derby and that we will go in with a good horse. I feel very good about where we are at.”

As for the rest of the field in the Santa Anita Derby, it's hard to imagine anyone but Rock Your World winning at Churchill Downs. Runner-up Medina Spirit is a consistent horse, but his three second-place finishes this year indicate that he is a cut below the very best in the division. Third-place finisher Dream Shake (Twirling Candy) obviously has some talent but he has some catching up to do before he can be considered a top colt.

Essential Quality Solid in Blue Grass Win

Unless Concert Tour (Street Sense) runs a crazy good race in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, Essential Quality (Tapit) will be the Derby favorite, but he certainly doesn't look invincible. Not, at least, after the GII Toyota Blue Grass S.

Essential Quality is not one of those horses who ever takes your breath away, and that was again the case Saturday at Keeneland. In what was a two-horse race every step of the way, Essential Quality was able to wear down Highly Motivated (Into Mischief) in deep stretch after battling that one most of the way. He won by a neck and earned a 97 Beyer.

Will a similar effort be good enough to win the Kentucky Derby? It may. It may not. Whereas Life Is Good might have been a heavy favorite in the Derby had he stayed healthy, it looks like Essential Quality's odds will be in the 7-2 range.

Highly Motivated will also take some money at Churchill Downs and rightly so. He put up a very good fight in the Blue Grass in his first-ever start around two turns and probably hasn't run anywhere close to his best race yet. The 3-year-old colts are not normally Chad Brown's strength, but he has a good one here in Highly Motivated. Brown is 0-for-5 in the Derby.

“We hooked up at the top of the stretch and we had a good battle all the way to the wire,” said Highly Motivated's rider Javier Castellano. “He ran huge. I am very happy with my horse.”

No one else out of the Blue Grass figures to be a factor in the Derby.

A Shocker in the Wood Memorial

The GII Wood Memorial has struggled in recent years to produce top candidates for the Kentucky Derby and this year looks like it will be more of the same.

No Wood Memorial winner has won the Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and the last Wood starter to win the Derby was Funny Cide in 2003.

Calumet Farm has never been afraid to run big longshots in major races and it paid off Saturday at Aqueduct, where 72-1 Bourbonic (Bernardini) closed for last to win by a neck over Dynamite One (Union Rags). Both are trained by Todd Pletcher and the all-Pletcher exacta paid $906 for $2. The final time was 1:54.49, the slowest ever in the Wood, but the race was run over a very deep racetrack. He got an 89 Beyer figure.

Good job by NBC's Randy Moss, who predicted the final time would be the slowest in the race's history.

Bourbonic, who was ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, clearly took advantage of the fact that several of the top Wood contenders did not run their race. Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro) was seventh and the highly regarded Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro) was sixth in his stakes debut. Crowded Trade (More Than Ready), the second choice at 5-2, ran third but was never a serious threat.

Just one week earlier, it looked like Pletcher might not have a starter in the Derby. He's started at least one horse every year since 2003. He now has four horses who have enough points to get into the Derby field. Along with the two Wood horses, he has GI Curlin Florida Derby winner Known Agenda (Curlin) and Jeff Ruby Steaks S. runner-up Sainthood (Mshawish).

In a year where so much focus has been on diversity, it will be nice to see Carmouche ride in the Derby. He will be the first African American to ride in the race since 2013 and will attempt to become the first black jockey to win it since Jimmy Winkfield in 1902.

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