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Rombauer in Good Order, Ships to Belmont Monday

After a few hours of sleep, trainer Michael McCarthy was back at Pimlico Race Course Sunday morning, quietly talking about Rombauer (Twirling Candy)'s emphatic victory in the 146th GI Preakness S. Saturday and looking ahead to the June 5GI Belmont Stakes. Bred and raced by John and Diane Fradkin, Rombauer rallied to a convincing 3 1/2-length score Saturday and stopped the clock in 1:53.62, the eighth-fastest time since the race distance was changed to 1 3/16 miles in 1925.

While McCarthy, 50, acquired plenty of experience in Triple Crown races during his long tour as an assistant to Hall of Fame-elect trainer Todd Pletcher, Rombauer was his first starter in the series since he opened his own stable in 2014. The well-respected, low-key, California-based horseman started receiving congratulatory calls and texts as soon as the race was over.

“It's been great,” McCarthy said. “It's nice to see this all kind of come together. The horse justified what I thought of him all along.”

The Fradkins and McCarthy have decided to ship Rombauer to Belmont Park Monday and are seriously considering running him in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont.

“We will go ahead and go to Belmont,” McCarthy said. “We will get there and see how he is and where he is at and go from there.”

Elsewhere in the Preakness aftermath, Steve Asmussen, the Hall of Fame trainer of Winchell Thoroughbreds' runner-up Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), said Sunday that the Belmont is under consideration for his trainee.

“Proud of his effort,” Asmussen said. “He had every chance yesterday and he ran second. He's a good horse who needs to continuously get better, but we have a lot of confidence that he will, pedigree-wise, and who he is physically and the fact that he has continuously improved to this point.”

Midnight Bourbon left Pimlico to van back to Churchill Downs right before dawn Sunday morning. Asked if the Belmont might be in his plans, Asmussen said, “Of course it is. All major 3-year-old races are under consideration for the rest of the year. Let's get him back to normal circumstances just to see where we're at with him. That also gives us time to see everything that's out there and knock out a plan for him for the second half of the year.”

The highly-scrutinized pair of Bob Baffert trainees, GI Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit (Protonico) and Concert Tour (Street Sense), exited their respective third and ninth-place efforts in good order according to assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes. Both boarded a van bound for Churchill at 10 a.m. Sunday morning.

“We will evaluate everything and Bob will see what direction he wants to go with them,” Barnes said.

Added Barnes of Medina Spirit's run, “He ran his race. The second quarter is what got us. Once they threw up that 46 [:46.93 seconds], it was a bit much. We just need to give him a little bit more time between races. Bob knows what to do and I will feed him the information and he will tell us what to do.”

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Speed Figure Pioneer Len Ragozin Dies

Len Ragozin, who started a handicapping revolution when inventing the Ragozin Sheets, passed away Thursday. He was 92.

Ragozin grew up in Manhattan, where he learned the game from his father, Harry, a textile production manager and a part-time horseplayer who developed his own speed figures. In the late 1960s, Ragozin went out on his own, refining his father's system. He began to publish The Sheets, which boiled a horse's performance down to a single number or speed figure. Ragozin found that he could combine final times, track condition, weight carried and ground lost into a number used to rate a horse's performance. He liked to look beyond the raw numbers and for form cycles and patterns, one of which became to be known as the “bounce theory.” Horses, he found, often regressed and run poorly after a particularly fast and taxing effort.

The Ragozin Sheets would soon become a popular tool for legions of followers, including horseplayers and owners and trainers, among them Bobby Frankel. In an era prior to the Internet and computer printouts, the Ragozin team entered a horse's numbers by hand on sheets of paper that were sold to customers.

“We're trying to find out the true value of a horse's performance,” he told Sports Illustrated in 1978. “In other words, when is a fast race really worse and when is a slow race really better?”

In a 1987 profile, The New Yorker had this to say about Ragozin: “In a profession crowded by shams and romantics, Ragozin looms like a Descartes–the supreme rationalist codifier.”

“Len was a trailblazer,” said Andy Beyer, whose popular speed figures are included in Daily Racing Form past performances. “He created a really strong following for his philosophy of the game. He made speed figures, we make speed figures, other people make speed figures. What was unique about him was the concept that you could look at pattern of numbers on a page and foretell a horse's form cycle. Most notable was his bounce theory.”

In 2012, he sold his business to Thoroughbred owner and breeder Steve Davision and a longtime employee of The Sheets, Jake Haddad. Davison, the majority owner of Twin Creeks Racing Stables LLC., called the Ragozin sheets “the premier speed figure producers in the Thoroughbred industry.”

Ragozin donated much of the proceeds from the sale to his Len Ragozin Foundation, which is devoted to progressive causes. According to his bio on the Ragozin Foundation website, the Harvard graduate was working for Newsweek during the Red Scare when he refused to inform on college classmates. He was denied a promotion because of his unwillingness to cooperate with the FBI, which prompted him to look for a new line of work and go into handicapping.

In 1997, he released his autobiography, titled “The Odds Must Be Crazy: Beating the Races With the Man Who Revolutionized Handicapping.”

Ragozin is survived by his sister, Nikki Keddie, his brother David Ragozin, a daughter, Alexa Manning, granddaughter, Adeline Manning, and ex-wife and longtime best friend Marion Buhagiar, who was with him during his final days. As he wished, Len was cremated without ceremony. No memorials are currently planned. Donations from friends and comrades who remember Len and share his ideals are welcome at the Len Ragozin Foundation (lenragozinfoundation.com).

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Bob Baffert Releases Statement

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has been embroiled in controversy this week after the news broke May 9 that his GI Kentucky Derby win with Medina Spirit (Protonico) may be in jeopardy after the horse reportedly tested positive for betamethasone, released a statement via attorney Craig Robertson prior to the GI Preakness S. Baffert did not attend the Preakness and Medina Spirit finished third in the second leg of the Triple Crown behind Rombauer (Twirling Candy).

The statement appears below in its entirety:

“As Medina Spirit prepares to run in the Preakness Stakes today, I want to keep the focus on this amazing equine athlete and not me, which is the primary reason I will not personally be in attendance. I do not want to serve as a distraction to what has always been of paramount importance–the joy of this great sport and the horses that make it possible.

“As I have stated from the beginning, there was never any attempt to game or cheat the system and Medina Spirit earned his Kentucky Derby win. While the presence of 21 picograms of an allowable therapeutic medication has yet to be confirmed by the split sample analysis, it would have nothing to do with Medina Spirit's hard-earned and deserved win. That win was the result of the horse's tremendous heart and nothing else.

“Notwithstanding the foregoing, I acknowledge that I am not perfect and I could have better handled the initial announcement of this news. Medina Spirit's Kentucky Derby win was so personally meaningful to me, and I had such a wonderful experience on May 1 at Churchill Downs, that when I got the news of the test results, it truly was the biggest gut punch I had ever received and I was devastated. That, coupled with the fact that I always try to be accommodating and transparent with the media, led to an emotional press conference on May 9 in which I said some things that have been perceived as hurtful to some in the industry. For that I am truly sorry. I have devoted my life's work to this great sport and I owe it, and those who make it possible, nothing but an eternal debt of gratitude.

“For those who want an explanation for what transpired with Medina Spirit, I have tried to be open and transparent from the beginning. Our investigation is continuing and I don't have definitive answers at this point. What I do know is that neither my barn, nor my veterinarians, directly treated Medina Spirit with the anti-inflammatory medication betamethasone. Even though it is allowable, it is just not something we have ever used with this horse. The only possible explanation that we have uncovered to date–and I emphasize the word possible–is that betamethasone is an ingredient in a topical ointment that was being applied to Medina Spirit to treat a dermatitis skin condition he developed after the Santa Anita Derby.

“I have been deeply saddened to see this case portrayed as a “doping” scandal or betamethasone labeled as a “banned” substance. Neither is remotely true. Betamethasone is an allowable and commonly used medication in horse racing. Further, 21 picograms would have zero pharmacology in a horse. All I ask is that everyone not rush to judgment and allow all of the facts, evidence and science to come to light.

“Lastly, while this has been extremely hard and emotionally draining on me and my family, today is not about Bob Baffert. Instead it is about Medina Spirit and all of the other equine athletes in our tremendous sport. I hope that everyone will direct their attention to them and give them the love and respect they so richly deserve.”

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Rombauer Does it in the Preakness

The vast majority of the headlines leading up to the 146th renewal of the GI Preakness S. had to do with one horse, one trainer and one subject. But when the dust had settled at Pimlico at approximately 7 p.m. Saturday, the narrative had suddenly changed. In the span of 1 3/16 miles, the story was no longer one of rumors and speculation. It became a story about an improving horse, John and Diane Fradkin's Rombauer (Twirling Candy), that finally had his chance to prove his mettle on the big stage. Settled off the early pace set by GI Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit (Protonico) and 3-1 second choice Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), Rombauer produced a powerful turn of foot late to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

Scoring as 11.80-1 fifth choice in the wagering, the El Camino Real Derby winner recorded a number of firsts–first Preakness win for the trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Flavien Prat and the first win for the colt's owners and breeders, John and Diane Fradkin. Prat was winning his second Classic, however, after Country House (Lookin At Lucky) was elevated to a Kentucky Derby win after the disqualification of Maximum Security (New Year's Day) two years ago.

“Just really surreal, all of it,” said a visibly moved McCarthy.

“I'm stunned, but not totally surprised, if that makes any sense? The horse had been touting himself here all week. His last two works were very, very good.”

“I thought the horse would run well. Turning up the backside, I was a little concerned. He's usually a little bit farther back than that..Watching live, going back to the Jumbotron, when he hit the front, I don't think I said a word. I certainly didn't root, at least I don't think I did. Just kind of watched Flavien and the horse in a rhythm.”

Anatomy of the Win

Things appeared to set up as anticipated in the first part of the race. Breaking a hair outward, Rombauer was quickly taken back as Medina Spirit assumed his customary place at the head of affairs with the speedy Midnight Bourbon in hot pursuit on his outer flank. Reeling off an opening quarter in :23.77, the front-running duo were closely pursued by the triumvirate of Crowded Trade (More Than Ready), France Go de Ina (Will Take Charge) and Concert Tour (Street Sense), who was floated several paths wide into the first turn. Meanwhile, Rombauer and Prat bided their time in sixth as the leaders took them through a half in :46.93. Approaching the far turn, the Japanese invader narrowed the gap on the pacesetter, briefly passing inside of Midnight Bourbon as Rombauer improved to fourth. France Go de Ina's move was short-lived, however, and he was soon overtaken by Midnight Bourbon who returned to pound away at the Derby winner up front. Running with purpose and drawing closer to the leading rank approaching the quarter pole as Midnight Bourbon inched ahead of Medina Spirit, Rombauer rounded the home turn in the four path but had built the most momentum to that point. Under left-handed encouragement from Prat, Rombauer overtook Medina Spirit, who was starting to show the effects of his early efforts, and forged past the ultra-game Midnight Bourbon before drawing off to an eye-catching 3 1/2-length victory. Medina Spirit was a clear third ahead of Keepmeinmind (Laoban). Crowded Trade was fifth, while Concert Tour faded to ninth.

“I had a great trip,” said Prat. “We broke well. Never intended to rush him. Naturally down the backside, he was traveling well and was passing horses one by one. So, I was pretty confident going to the three-eighths pole, and then I was behind the two favorites in the race, and I was traveling well, and I thought, well, maybe if he switched [leads] and gave me a good kick, I might be able to run them down, which he did.”

McCarthy added, “Coming through the half-mile pole, looked like the horse was still traveling well. I saw Chad [Brown]'s [Crowded Trade] inside of us going to three-eighths pole, was starting to go up and down, looked at the horses behind us, didn't see anybody posing a threat behind us. [Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon], obviously carried each other through the quarter pole. When we wheeled out coming to the three-sixteenths pole at the head of the lane, I started to get excited.”

Rombauer kicked off his career with a narrow win going a mile over the Del Mar turf last July before finishing sixth in the grassy Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. in early September. A close-up second behind Get Her Number (Dialed In) in Santa Anita's GI American Pharoah S. Sept. 26, he made a mild bid to finish fifth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland Nov. 6. Given some time off after that performance, he returned in 2021 with a neck victory in the El Camino Real Derby over the Golden Gate synthetic Feb. 13. Closer-up than usual in his latest start, he came home third, beaten 5 3/4 lengths by defending Juvenile Champion Essential Quality (Tapit) in the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 3.

“Well, fate did play a role,” said Fradkin of the decision to keep the colt rather than sell him. “We intend to sell all our horses. They're all aimed for either yearling sales or 2-year-old sales. We have had better luck at 2-year-old sales. This horse was in Ocala with [consignor] Eddie Woods, and he was being aimed for the April OBS 2-year-old sale. And Eddie told me that he didn't have confidence that sale was going to come off, and this was probably in March. So, he suggested maybe just run this one and try and win early at the track and maybe sell him at the track. So that's what we did. It was Eddie's call, and I went along with it, and we shipped him off to Michael McCarthy.”

Derby vs. Preakness

McCarthy had been a strong proponent in running Rombauer in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, was ultimately overruled by John Fradkin, who preferred to wait for the Preakness.

“I was bullish on running the horse in the Kentucky Derby,” admitted McCarthy. “I had mentioned it a couple of times to John and Diane. They seemed to think that this was the better route. I just thought he'd get a wonderful setup in the Derby, tons of pace in there. I thought it would be over a racetrack that he would really like. Usually on Derby day, Churchill Downs is hard and fast, and I think that's what this horse has kind of been wanting all along.

The conditioner continued, “John made some valid points. As I had said to him earlier, we probably would have done the same thing two weeks earlier, but I'm glad we got it done today.”

Fradkin appeared to recall the issue a bit differently.

“We had a pretty heated discussion about that. Let's just leave it at that. We wanted to run in easier spots, if possible, and I didn't think the Kentucky Derby would suit him. I thought there was a chance we would not hit the board because of his running style. I can understand why Michael wanted to run, but I think he can understand why I didn't. I think Michael and I are really a good team. I think there's going to be some clashes at times, because I come from a total handicapping background and I'm not a horseman. Michael is the consummate horseman. He's focused on the horses and getting them to be their best. Where we disagree is usually just a handicapping thing.”

On to Belmont?

While running in the Derby was more of a debate between owner and trainer, it seems the team is in closer agreement on running the colt in the GI Belmont S. in three week's time

“You'd have to think so,” said McCarthy of a trip to New York. “We'll see how he comes out of it, and we'll take a good look tomorrow.”

Added Fradkin, “Well, I think we'll have to see how he's doing after this race. That was the intent. I mean, all along I actually thought that was our best chance of a race to win, because I think he's going to like the distance.

“But now that we've won this one, it kind of takes the pressure off to do that, and that race is only three weeks out, and the spacing isn't superb to go into a mile-and-a-half race with just three weeks of rest. I know Michael is a disciple of Todd Pletcher. They don't like running on three weeks' rest.”

“I'm not going to make [the decision], we're not going to make a decision on that tonight, but I'd say it's a possibility, but it's probably a little less of a possibility than if we had run like a good third or something.”

Pedigree Notes:

With his Preakness win, Rombauer becomes the 10th group/graded winner and the fifth Grade I/Group 1 scorer for Twirling Candy (by Candy Ride {Arg}). Unraced Cashmere, the winner's dam, is a half-sister to graded winners California Flag (Avenue of Flags) and Cambiocorsa (Avenue of Flags), who is the dam of graded winners Moulin de Mougin (Curlin) and Schiaparelli (Ghostzapper). She is also a half-sister to Vionnet (Street Sense), responsible for European highweight Roaring Lion (Kitten's joy). In addition to Rombauer, Cashmere has produced six-time winner Treasure Trove (Tapizar), who was well-beaten in Friday's GIII Pimlico Special S.; the stakes-placed Cono (Lucky Pulpit); an unraced 3-year-old filly by Strong Mandate named Republique and the yearling colt Alexander Helios (Cairo Prince). The 10-year-old mare was bred back to Khozan.

Saturday, Pimlico
PREAKNESS S.-GI, $1,000,000, Pimlico, 5-15, 3yo, 1 3/16m, 1:53.62, ft.
1–ROMBAUER, 126, c, 3, by Twirling Candy
                1st Dam: Cashmere, by Cowboy Cal
                2nd Dam: Ultrafleet, by Afleet
                3rd Dam: Social Conduct, by Vigors
1ST GRADED STAKES WIN, 1ST GRADE I WIN. O/B-John &
Diane Fradkin (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy; J-Flavien Prat.
$600,000. Lifetime Record: 7-3-1-1, $890,500. *1/2 to Cono
(Lucky Pulpit), SP, $167,822. Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple
Plus*. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Midnight Bourbon, 126, c, 3, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by
Malibu Moon. ($525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-Winchell
Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC
(KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. $200,000.
3–Medina Spirit, 126, c, 3, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by
Brilliant Speed. ($1,000 Ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20
OBSOPN). O-Zedan Racing Stables; B-Gail Rice (FL); T-Bob
Baffert. $110,000.
Margins: 3HF, 2, 4. Odds: 11.80, 3.10, 2.40.
Also Ran: Keepmeinmind, Crowded Trade, Unbridled Honor, France Go de Ina, Risk Taking, Concert Tour, Ram.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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