This Side Up: Market Goes Back to the Future

The cyclical nature of our business, from the foaling shed to the race program, invites a length of perspective that can only be of comfort in times of trouble. This, too, shall pass–even a global pandemic. And if COVID disrupted our routines in 2020 as seldom before, with a September Derby and no Saratoga Sale, we appear determined to make as seamless a resumption as its lingering challenges allow.

Trade at Saratoga last month was eerily close to 2019. Of 180 hips into the ring for Fasig-Tipton's Select Sale, 135 sold for an aggregate $55,155,000 at an average $408,556 and median $350,000. Two years ago, 135 of 182 sold for $55,547,000 at $411,459 and $350,000.

Now, with a dark day at Keeneland on Friday permitting everyone to absorb a breathless start to the September Sale, it is possible to sharpen our sense of how the market is emerging from the crisis.

This, of course, was an auction that they did contrive to stage last year. While demand proved more resilient than many feared, predictably the sale took a big hit overall, rounding out at $249 million turnover for a $100,000 average, down from $360 million and $126,000 the previous year. But more reliable comparisons, to this point of the sale, are complicated by the fact that the one industry cycle that never quite repeats–paradoxically enough, at a place that so prizes tradition–is the format at Keeneland.

In 2019, Book 1 lasted three days before a two-session Book 2, a model last deployed in 2016. In 2018, Book 1 had been stretched to a fourth day. In 2017, conversely, it was compressed into a single session, with a three-day Book 2.

So let's hope that the new Keeneland team, with some extremely acute thinkers aboard, will give their chosen formula a proper chance to bed down. Judging on this week, they have every incentive to do so.

The most pertinent comparisons we can draw, entering the weekend, are with the 2018 and 2017 sales, which similarly presented the sale's best stock over four days, albeit packaged in different catalogs. Now remember that the 2018 sale was a knockout, ending up at $377 million at an average $129,335. This, being a nose ahead of 2019, represented the pinnacle of a bull run sustained through the decade since the banking crisis, thanks to relentless cash doping of the economy (nugatory interest rates, quantitative easing etc). As such, the 2017 sale had also registered a big leap, finishing with $308 million turnover and an average of $120,487, up from $273 million and $97,740 in 2017.

So let's put last year to one side–for what it's worth, the parallel two-day Books 1 and 2 yielded $168,130,000 from 643 sales at an average $261,477–and see how the best four days of stock in this market have performed against those boom years. In 2018, 640 head turned over $224,453,000 for an average $350,708. In 2017, 716 hips realized $200,760,000 at $280,391. In the first four days of this sale, 649 animals have changed hands for $205,754,000 at an average $317,032.

In other words, we are on track to restore the market to just about halfway between its 2017 and 2018 values, when we were approaching the absolute peak of a soaring market.

Now there's obviously still a long way to go. And even as it stands, plenty of individuals will have endured the tough experiences inevitable when you have to roll a sweaty stake to enter what proved an especially selective marketplace in Book 1 (barely half the published catalog both making it into the ring and finding a new home). That said, the hallmark of this week's trade appears to be its solidity and breadth.

One obvious factor is the increasing prevalence of high-end partnerships. Those vendors who resent combination instead of competition are missing the point. Because it's actually far more wholesome, on both sides of the market, for the big spenders to be spreading their risks.

In 2019, seven yearlings made $2 million or more at Keeneland. This year, it looks like we won't have one. But we know that people are spending the same kind of money, and the heart-breaking recent fate of Into Mischief's half-sister by American Pharoah, who topped that sale at $8.2 million, will doubtless comfort investors that they are both reducing their exposure even as they improve their odds of landing an elite runner. Many have evidently decided that to own only a leg in a future stallion represents a worthwhile sacrifice of ego in so precarious a business. And a wider spend, as we've seen this week, can reach very small consignments with life-changing results.

But the real key to this market may be a little simpler. While COVID has been a financial catastrophe for many households, some of the investors who drive our business are more affluent than ever–and they also have a renewed sense that life is for living. They have been piling up the cash, and don't want to sew pockets into a shroud.

That being so, it is vital that we give such people maximum confidence in our industry. And, in reality, the bloodstock market's buoyancy is menaced by many a needle.

The most perilous, of course, is literally that–and found on the end of a syringe. Commercial breeding for the ring, and not the racetrack, is another big problem. Then there's the foal crop, down again; unlike the volume of racing, which threatens a vicious circle via wagering disengagement. Even as Keeneland buzzed through its fourth session, moreover, Shadwell quietly announced the streamlining review feared since the loss of its founder Sheikh Hamdan earlier this year. The same Shadwell, that is, that topped spending at this sale in 2016 and 2017, and finished behind only Godolphin (owned by the late Sheikh's brother) in 2018 and 2019.

So none of us should be complacent in the perennial allure of the Thoroughbred. At the same time, we are entitled to take heart from the impetus behind the latest cycle this week.

How exciting, for instance, to see a 4-year-old Horse of the Year launch such a first crop of such startling precocity. After achieving a higher average this week than Tapit, War Front, Medaglia d'Oro and Uncle Mo, Gun Runner has the chance of a fifth graded stakes winner Saturday when Gun Town contests the GIII Iroquois S.–and the first starting points for the 2022 Derby.

Hope springs eternal! So begins another of those cherished, recurring cycles, by which we both take our bearings and also learn to transcend the narrow outlook of our own time and place. That's one of the reasons I love the statues unveiled at Churchill this week of Colonel Matt Winn, who died in 1949, seated in conversation with the late John Asher, who was born in 1956. Magnificent work as usual by local sculptor Raymond Graf and, in this instance, literally timeless. Good years, bad years, nothing lasts forever. And this, as a moment frozen out of time, might help to remind us that taking the long view actually boils down to living for the day.

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Stellar Book 2 Concludes at Keeneland

by Jessica Martini & Christie DeBernardis

LEXINGTON, KY – The two-session Book 2 of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale concluded with another day of competitive bidding and two additional seven-figure yearlings Thursday in Lexington, bringing the total number of lots to surpass the million-dollar mark to 15.

“Excellent,” Keeneland's vice president of sales Tony Lacy said when asked to gauge the day's activity. “The median was up 48% and the average was up 37% [for the session] and we've just passed the $200,000,000 mark for gross sales for the first four sessions. We cannot complain about anything that's gone on this week. I think it's been extremely strong and very, very deep. It's been a powerhouse week one.”

During the two Book 2 sessions this year, 426 yearlings grossed $111,772,000 for an average of $262,376 and a median of $207,500.

The Book 2 section of the 2020 auction, held amidst the pre-vaccination pandemic, saw 380 horses sold through the ring for a total of $75,368,000. The book average was $190,988 and the median was $150,000. With the inclusion of post-sale transactions, 415 yearlings grossed $79,260,000 for an average of $190,988 and a median of $150,000.

While Book 2 produced the auction's highest-priced offering so far when a colt by City of Light sold for $1.7 million Wednesday, Thursday's session produced co-topping $1 million colts when Mike Ryan secured a son of Into Mischief (hip 874) from the Mt. Brilliant Farm consignment and BSW/Crow Colts Group took home a son of Street Sense (hip 1022) from the Farfellow Farms consignment.

After four days of selling, the Keeneland September sale has a dark day Friday, but the strength of the market during the week provides validation for the company's format which is designed to put as many horses in front of people as possible in a short amount of time, according to Keeneland's director of sales operations Cormac Breathnach.

“I think a lot of people loved the format,” Breathnach said. “It's speaking for itself in terms of the results we are looking at. The median is really important–that middle ground, what the horses are really bringing and not so influenced by the very high numbers. The RNA rate is very much in control. This is a sale that is keeping pace with a banner year, which was 2019, and it's really just blowing last year out of the water. The format has been a part of that and it's kept the buyers in town and kept them engaged.”

With 88 horses reported not sold during Thursday's session, the buy-back rate was 30.45%. Through four sessions, the buy-back rate stands at 30.18%. It was 39.59% at this point a year ago.

Bidding resumes at Keeneland Saturday morning at 10 a.m. and the sale continues through next Friday.

 

Ryan Strikes for Into Mischief Colt
The Book 2 section of the Keeneland September sale had its third seven-figure yearling when bloodstock agent Mike Ryan outlasted an internet bidder to secure a colt by Into Mischief (hip 874) for $1 million Thursday. Bred and consigned by Greg Goodman's Mt. Brilliant Farm, the bay yearling is out of stakes winner and graded placed Secret Someone (A.P. Indy). His second dam, Private Gift (Unbridled), produced the dam of Grade I winner Dunbar Road (Quality Road).

“I am very familiar with the family because a good friend of mine bred Dunbar Road,” Ryan said after signing the ticket on the yearling. “I bought the dam of Dunbar Road and it's a family I am familiar with and I own some mares from the family. [The yearling] reminded me a lot of Practical Joke. If he runs to his pedigree, top and bottom, he has terrific stallion potential.”

Private Gift is also the dam of Private Mission (Into Mischief), who sold for $750,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. The 3-year-old filly romped home by 6 1/2 lengths in the Aug. 21 GIII Torrey Pines S.

“We bid a long ways on Private Mission, a 3/4 sister to this colt,” Ryan said. “She is three for four and won the Torrey Pines. She could be anything. So we know the pedigree works.”

Ryan said he was bidding on behalf of an undisclosed group of buyers and the yearling would be trained by Chad Brown.

“He looks like a horse who will hopefully run at Saratoga next summer, but stretch out from there,” Ryan said. “The dam is by A.P. Indy and the second dam is by Unbridled. Unbridled and Empire Maker under Into Mischief has been very successful. Mandaloun comes to mind. I thought he was a special colt. He has a lot of upside and hopefully we will turn out lucky. If he's half as good as Practical Joke, we'll be very happy.”

Mt. Brilliant Farm purchased Private Gift for $2.3 million at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton November sale. The operation campaigned Secret Someone, who won the 2016 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf S. and was third in that year's GIII Modesty H.

“We loved the horse. We put a low reserve just to get him started because we knew he could do the work himself,” Goodman said. “We love his family. Private Gift is the first really expensive horse I ever bought. I have sold a lot of the family and kept a lot of the daughters. He could not be in better hands and I am so happy about it.”

With the strength of Book 2 bolstered by four seven-figure yearlings, including the likely $1.7-million sale topper, Goodman agreed there could be a disparity with breeders looking to shift their horses into Book 2 over Book 1.

“I had a great Book 1,” Goodman said. “I had five horses sell for $2.7 million. So I had a great first book. But I do think that there is disparity. I think some people hold their horses back and put them in Book 2 and they do great. And I think there are horses who don't belong in Book 1 that should have been in Book 2 that bring a lot of money. It's a difficult situation. I think the new [Keeneland] guys are doing a great job so far. I think this always been a problem. It's been a problem since they quit the July sale.”

Breeders also need to space out their yearlings in separate books. Ryan pointed out that Mt. Brilliant had sold another son of Into Mischief for $1.35 million during the first session of the sale.

“Sometimes you have to spread them out to give yourself the best shot,” Ryan said. @JessMartiniTDN

 

Street Sense Colt Puts Farfellow Farms Back in the Spotlight
The Knelman family's Farfellow Farms returned to consigning its own horses just last year with a two-horse consignment during Book 3 of Keeneland September. This year they brought seven horses and were immediately rewarded when their first horse through the ring, a Street Sense colt (Hip 1022), brought $1 million from BSW/Crow Colts Group.

“We actually brought [second dam] Critikola (Arg) (Tough Critic) up from Argentina, so this family has a lot of sentimental value for us,” Jak Knelman said. “It makes it all the more rewarding. We expected it to break out, but we tried to keep our expectations low. It's hard in the horse industry, but sometimes it lines up.”

A MGSW in her native Argentina, Critikola was imported by the Knelmans and placed in a pair of Grade I events for them in California. She produced GI Kentucky Oaks upsetter Lemons Forever (Lemon Drop Kid) for the Knelmans, who is the dam of champion Forever Unbridled (Unbridled's Song) and GISW Unbridled Forever (Unbridled's Song).

Hip 1022 is out of her SP daughter Critikal Reason (Aptitude), who is already the dam of MSW & GISP Bajan (Speightstown) and GSP Virtual Machine (Drosselmeyer).

“We started selling in the recent years,” Knelman said. “We have a small broodmare band of about 12 mares. This is the best colt we've brought to the sales in a long time and it really was a team effort. Our farm manager Josh [Hennessy] and Emmanuel, who works the farm. They put so much effort into it. It's really a family thing with my parents and myself.” @CDeBernardisTDN

 

BSW/Crow Colts Group Makes First Seven Figure Purchase
Stallion-making partnerships have been all the rage in the past few years and Brad Cox and his team are joining the fray. Cox has gathered about 10 of his owners and teamed up with bloodstock agents Liz Crow and Brad Weisbord to gather a group of colts that fit the two-turn Classic build. Cox's team has been quite active at Keeneland this week and made their biggest purchase to date Thursday when going to $1 million for a son of Street Sense (Hip 1022).

“Brad Cox put it together. Obviously him and Liz Crow have a great relationship,” Weisbord said. “We got started with Brad in 2015. Liz actually told me Brad Cox was going to be a champion trainer one day. I think my first question at the time was who is Brad Cox. But, look Monomoy Girl (Tapizar), British Idiom (Flashback), Aunt Pearl (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}). Brad doesn't need any introduction.”

Weisbord and Crow did their bidding seated alongside Spendthrift's Ned Toffey. The late B. Wayne Hughes' operation is one of the partners in the new venture, which also includes Steve Landers Racing, Marty Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Jim Bakke, Marshall Gramm & Clay Sanders's Ten Strike Racing, Paul Farr, Rick Kueber's Kueber Racing, Chris Jean's Big Easy Racing and Rick Kanter's Winners Win.

“Spendthrift Farm is our seed partner,” Weisbord said. “Unfortunately, we lost a pioneer in the sport in B. Wayne Hughes. Eric Gustavson and his wife Tammy have taken over ownership of the farm and obviously they are going to be major players for the next 50 years. We have gotten to know Eric and they have a great leader in Ned Toffey.”

The Elite Sales managing partner continued, “This all kind of started when they bought Monomoy Girl and sent her back to Brad. When Brad started this venture, he thought they could be a good seed player in this group. He put a few more partners in the group. There will be nine or 10 names on the ownership line. Hopefully the Jockey Club will allow it. It's good for the sport. Terry Finley mentioned the power of the partnership and they are carrying these sales.”

The BSW/Crow Colts Group has purchased a total of 17 colts in the first two books for a gross of $5.98 million and average of $351,765.

“We will start shopping Book 3,” Weisbord said. “We have plenty of capital left so we will keep going. I think we have 20+ horses so far and the goal was to get 20 so we are there. Hopefully we get one or two stallions. It's a stallion-making group and we want to have fun along the way.” @CDeBernardisTDN

 

Violence Colt Proves Popular
Bloodstock agent Jacob West, bidding out back alongside trainer Todd Pletcher and just a few feet from Bob LaPenta's manager John Panagot, saw off that determined foe to acquire a colt by Violence (hip 1057) for $950,000 Thursday at Keeneland. The yearling was bred and consigned by Larry Doyle's KatieRich Farms.

“Todd obviously trained Violence and the first thing he said was that the colt reminded him of Violence when we saw the horse the other day,” West said after signing the ticket on the yearling on behalf of Repole Stable and St. Elias. “He's out of an A.P. Indy mare. What's selling well right now is that two-turn dirt horse and that's kind of what we felt that he was. He's got family behind him and an incredible physical and now we just hope he runs as good as he looks.”

The colt is out of False Impression (A.P. Indy) and is a half-brother to multiple Grade I winner Standard Deviation (Curlin).

Momentum on the yearling continued to build at the sales grounds over the last several days, according to Doyle.

“We thought it started off slow,” Doyle said. “And Monday and Tuesday his shows were sharing with our other horses, but just in the last couple of days they just started showing up for him. He vetted perfectly and let's hope he is the next Violence. I love False Impression. She produced Standard Deviation and she's been great for us all along.”

The sale of the Violence colt capped a perfect five-for-five day for the KatieRich consignment, which also sold a Quality Road filly (hip 1050) for $500,000 to Peter Brant's White Birch Farm, and a filly by Tapit (hip 943) and a colt by Uncle Mo (hip 970) for $300,000 each to Mike Ryan.

“It has been very strong,” Doyle said of the market. “I have had more looks at this sale–165 on this horse. Typically a year or two ago, we'd have 125. The Japanese aren't here, but there are a lot people here looking.”

Panagot was quick to get back into the bidding fray, but he agreed he was finding a competitive market.

“The good horses are competitive,” he said. “There have been a few horses we thought would be a little more busy, but I think at the very top, it's super tough. Mr. LaPenta loved [the Violence colt]. He's been buying horses in a partnership at this sale and that was a horse for himself and he was pretty gung-ho. He went past where he wanted to go probably by 25% or so.”

LaPenta's Whitehorse Stable, in partnership with Madaket and e Five Racing, has purchased seven colts so far at the Keeneland sale. On Thursday, the group went to $235,000 to acquire a yearling by Mendelssohn (hip 900), a colt by Twirling Candy (hip 953) for $170,000 and a colt by Candy Ride (Arg) (hip 1045) for $125,000 and a son of Nyquist (hip 1073) for $200,000. Earlier in the sale, the partnership went to $350,000 for a colt by Tapit (hip 662), a Collected (hip 317) for $200,000 and an Empire Maker (hip 528).

With the SF/Starlight/Madaket partnership and BSW/Crow Colts Group both looking to purchase potential future stallions, Panagot said he had plenty of company when bidding on quality colts.

“You have to pay for the good horses, especially the colts,” he said. “We are focusing on colts and I don't think we are that innovative with that because a lot of people are. And that's going to really bulk it up. But we are just trying to buy a handful with the right pedigrees and the right bodies and athletic horses and we feel like we have. We've bought five or six of them, but you have to fight for them.” @JessMartiniTDN

 

Indian Creek Gets Off to a Fast Start
Shack Parrish's Indian Creek consignment broke from the gate running Thursday when the first offering of the sale, an Into Mischief colt (Hip 755), brought $850,000 from Courtlandt Farm.

“He is a really nice horse,” Parrish said. “This was our first horse of the sale. I think Tuesday and Wednesday were extraordinary and Monday was kind of bouncy. Yesterday, especially was extremely strong, and today has already opened that way. It looks pretty good so far.”

Bred by Bob Edwards' Fifth Avenue Bloodstock and Centerline Breeding, Hip 755 is out of SP Inspired Grace (Curlin), a half-sister to GISW Off the Tracks (Curlin) and MGSW Concord Point (Tapit).

“He did everything right at the farm,” Parrish said. “He is very mild-mannered. He just keeps developing. He's beautiful now, but he will be even more beautiful this time next year.”

Courtlandt Farm has been extremely active through the first two books and have been quite keen on Into Mischief. Hip 755 was their third purchase by the red-hot Spendthrift stallion.

“We loved the colt, felt like he had a lot of stretch to him and looks like a colt that will fit our program,” said Courtlandt Farm manager Ernie Retamoza. “We are excited to have him and to get him at that number honestly, not to belittle what he brought.” @CDeBernardisTDN

 

Practical Joke Filly a Sentimental Score for St. George
When Archie St. George sold a Practical Joke colt (Hip 1079) he purchased for $105,000 at KEEJAN to Talla Racing for $750,000 during Thursday's session, it was not his first pinhooking score. However, it was certainly one of his most meaningful as St. George bought the colt from his good friend Mike Recio of South Point Sales Agency, who passed Thursday morning.

“We bought him as a weanling in January off South Point Sales, so I guess someone is looking down on us and helping us through it all.,” St. George said, the emotion clear on his face. “It's a sentimental sale. It was great. He was a very nice horse.”

He continued, “I'd like to thank the buyer Mike Talla and the underbidders, David Ingordo and his team and the Coolmore team. Practical Joke has been a very good stallion and he is a very nice horse. Fingers crossed we will hopefully see him down the road.”

Practical Joke is second to Gun Runner of the leading freshman sire list this term with 12 winners, two of which are also black-type winners. His graded stakes-winning son Wit was second in last weekend's GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga.

“Roger O'Callaghan rang me before the January sale and we had a Practical Joke filly back with him at Tally Ho,” St. George said. “He said whatever happens we are buying a Practical Joke. We did and the rest is history.”

Bred in Ontario by South Point, Hip 1079 is the first foal out of Gal Factor (The Factor), who is a half-sister to this year's GI Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock (Dialed In) and GISP Boujie Girl (Flashback).

“He has done very well,” St. George said. “He is a big, tall horse. As the spring and summer went on, he filled out. He has just been a simple straightforward horse. He got a little update in the second dam this year and everything fell into place. The stars aligned.”  @CDeBernardisTDN

 

A Profitable Duo for Duignan
Gabriel Duignan and a pair of Irish partners doubled up on a pair of pinhooking scores Thursday at Keeneland, selling a son of Speightstown (hip 944) for $425,000 to Starlight and Harrell Ventures and returning a few hips later to sell a daughter of Munnings (hip 961) for $280,000 to bloodstock agent Clay Scherer. The colt had been purchased by the partners for $180,000 at last year's Keeneland November sale and the filly had been acquired for $105,000 at that same auction.

The Speightstown colt is out of Wild Ridge (Tapit), a daughter of multiple graded stakes winner Wild Gams (Forest Wildcat).

“He was a very nice foal, a very typical Speightstown,” Duignan said of the colt “And I like the Tapit mares–he is a hell of a broodmare sire. He grew up and he was well-received on the grounds.”

The Munnings filly, a Canadian-bred, is out of Artillia (Artie Schiller), a half-sister to graded placed Solitaire (Victory Gallop).

“I think the Ontario-bred helped the Munnings filly,” Duignan said. “And Munnings, of course, has improved in the meantime. He's in another league. She's a big, strong filly who looks like she'll get a route of ground and with clean X-rays. She did everything the right way.”

Of buying weanlings last fall, Duignan said, “We had to work hard on it and we got outbid on a lot. I wouldn't have called it soft buying them last year.”

But the Irishman agreed the September market has been very competitive.

“This might be a bit more robust,” he said when asked to compare the two markets. “Our racing is so healthy right now. It probably makes more sense than it ever did to race a horse. There is a wide array of buyers. Our market here in America is very good here at the moment. We don't have a lot of foreign participation, but the domestic market is very good.”

Looking ahead to the remaining week of the September sale, Duignan said, “I am hoping it will be good. The crowds are still on the grounds and there a lot of people who haven't gotten to buy yet. I am hoping it will kick on.” @JessMartiniTDN

 

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Indiana Grand Adds to ’21 Season

The Indiana Horse Racing Commission (IHRC) approved Thursday Indiana Grand Racing & Casino's request for four additional racing days for the 2021 season. The track, which will now offer 123 days of live racing in 2021, will run Monday, Oct. 11 (Columbus Day) and continue through Nov. 11. The previous closing day was set for Monday, Nov. 8. Increased business this season has contributed to adding the four additional racing days in addition to the growth of the local horse population, increasing demand for additional racing opportunities in Indiana. Also, the Columbus Day card will be used to make up for the cancellation of a day of racing in August due to extreme heat.

“We're very pleased to be in a position where we are able to request additional racing dates at the end of our current 120-day meet,” said Eric Halstrom, Vice President and General Manager of Racing. “The Indiana horsemen, our loyal partners, are very deserving of these additional opportunities and, upon approval from the IHRC, we'll end our meet with a bang on Veteran's Day, Nov. 11.”

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Street Sense Colt Joins Million-Dollar Ranks at Keeneland

A colt by Street Sense became the second of the day to sell for $1 million when bloodstock agent Liz Crow, sitting alongside Brad Weisbord and Spendthrift Farm's Ned Toffey, signed the ticket on hip 1022 late in the fourth session of the Keeneland September sale Thursday.

Crow and Weisbord have been busy all week buying yearlings for their colts group partnership. Prior to their million-dollar purchase in partnership with Spendthrift, they had acquired 16 yearlings for $4,980,000.

Bred and consigned by the Knelman family's Farfellow Farms, the yearling is out of Critikal Reason (Aptitude) and is a half-brother to Grade I placed Bajan (Speightstown) and from the family of GI Kentucky Oaks winner Lemons Forever.

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