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‘Swirl’ the Girl in Raven Run

Caramel Swirl got just the better of an enervating final-furlong tussle in Saturday's GII Lexus Raven Run S. at Keeneland, dropping her nose down on the line just ahead of the over-achieving Joy's Rocket to earn her first stakes and graded stakes victory. The 33-10 second betting choice behind her Bill Mott stablemate Obligatory (Curlin), Caramel Swirl settled just behind midfield and raced three off the inside beneath Junior Alvarado before committing to a wide run around the turn. In hand approaching the quarter pole, she was angled six deep into the lane, hooked up with Joy's Rocket a furlong from home and was the recipient of a very fortuitous bob in. Cilla, lightly regarded despite her last-out score in the GII Prioress S., attended the pace from between rivals, was headed by the rallying duo at the furlong grounds and kept on gamely to be third. Obligatory, the 5-2 chalk, never landed a serious blow.

“She is just very honest. She's a very classy filly. She does everything you need to do in the race,” Alvarado said of the winner. “Today we were in a little tough spot on the backside, and I needed to get a little bit out of that spot because I wasn't really comfortable there, and she helped me to get out of there. Then at the same time, when I decided to pick it up a little bit to stay in contention, she was there for me. Like I say, she just really makes my job easier.”

Second in her first three outings, including behind future superstar Malathaat (Curlin), Caramel Swirl signaled her affinity for this very track and trip with a fifth-out 10 1/4-length romp in April. She could only manage seventh behind Obligatory in the GII Eight Belles S. on the GI Kentucky Oaks undercard Apr. 30, but reemerged at Saratoga in July for a sharp first-level allowance victory that earned her a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. She was looking to bounce back off a fourth-place finish at 7-10 in the two-turn, seven-panel GIII Charles Town Oaks Aug. 27.

“It was a little tougher than when she won by 10 to break her maiden here (in April), that was for sure, but obviously with the step up in company and class–Junior gave her a super ride,” said Godolphin President and Racing Manager Jimmy Bell. “She showed true determination and grit and heart down the lane. Made it interesting, but we're happy to be here in the Winner's Circle.”

The Godolphin team was presented with a tray by Keeneland to commemorate its eighth graded stakes win at the Lexington oval. Bell, who it was recently announced will be retiring at the end of the year, was handed the tray by his son Gatewood, Keeneland's Vice President of Racing.

“Everything about it is special,” Bell said. “Keeneland is special. Obviously, Sheikh Mohammed and Godolphin are very, very special, and seeing Gatewood over here, it's very, very, very special. I'm kind of at a loss for words. But happy also that so many of our folks from the farm could be over here that have such a hand in raising these horses. This being another homebred, it's just very special for the operation. Just very happy to be on the receiving end of things. Very appreciative.”

Saturday, Keeneland
LEXUS RAVEN RUN S.-GII, $250,000, Keeneland, 10-23, 3yo, f, 7f, 1:23.42, ft.
1–CARAMEL SWIRL, 118, f, 3, by Union Rags
               1st Dam: Caramel Snap, by Smart Strike
               2nd Dam: Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister
               3rd Dam: Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags
1ST BLACK-TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN.
O/B-Godolphin, LLC (KY); T-William I. Mott; J-Junior
Alvarado. $150,000. Lifetime Record: 9-3-3-1, $317,300.
Werk Nick Rating: A+++. Click for the eNicks report &
5-cross pedigree.
2–Joy's Rocket, 118, f, 3, Anthony's Cross–Queenie's Pride,
by Special Rate. ($47,000 2yo '20 OBSMAR). O-Team Hanley
& Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Weston Thoroughbreds
Training & Sales (FL); T-Steven M. Asmussen. $50,000.
3–Cilla, 120, f, 3, California Chrome–Sittin At the Bar, by Into
Mischief. ($120,000 RNA Ylg '19 KEEJAN). O-P. Dale Ladner;
B-Brett A. Brinkman & P. Dale Ladner (LA); T-Brett A.
Brinkman. $25,000.
Margins: HD, 2, 4. Odds: 3.30, 24.00, 10.30.
Also Ran: Shalimar Gardens, Souper Sensational, Obligatory, Miss Speedy, Strong Silent, Minute Waltz, Someone Said So, Zainalarab. Scratched: Feeling Mischief, Just Read It.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs, or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

Pedigree Notes:
Caramel Swirl is the 21st stakes winner and 11th graded winner for Union Rags, who has been potent when matched with Smart Strike mares, producing the likes of GISW juvenile Union Strike and GSW/MGISP Spielberg. He is the dam sire of 136 stakes winners, 52 graded, overall. Dam Caramel Swirl is out of GSW Fast Cookie, making her a half to the brilliant fellow Godolphin runner and now sire Frosted (Tapit) as well as GSW Indulgent (Bernardini). Another Godolpin stallion, champion 2-year-old Midshipman (Unbridled's Song), is under her third dam.

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For Jim McIngvale, an Astros World Series Win Would Mean $35.6 Million

Horse owner and master promoter Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale is no stranger to making big sports bets, but never anything like this. If his beloved Houston Astros win the World Series, McIngvale will make $35.6 million off of a series of bets he made in June. It would be the largest winning wager ever in U.S. sports betting history.

McIngvale often combines his wagers with promotions at his Gallery Furniture Stores in Houston. Earlier this year, he promised his customers that any mattress they bought worth $3,000 or more would be free if the favorite won the GI Kentucky Derby. McIngvale hedged, wagering $2.4 million to win on 5-2 favorite Essential Quality (Tapit), who finished fourth. A winning bet would have been worth a profit of just less than $7 million, which would have more than covered the amount he lost giving away free mattresses. A loss by Essential Quality still meant that he sold thousands of mattresses he otherwise would not have sold. Either way, McIngvale would come out a winner.

In February, McIngvale won $2.72 million on a Super Bowl wager in which he bet $3.46 million on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the 3.5 point spread. It was the single largest legal wager placed on the game.

The latest promotion follows the same blueprint as the Derby wager. An Astros World Series win would mean that anyone buying a mattress during the promotional period would get it for free. Prior to the American League Championship Series, McIngvale estimated that having to give away the mattresses would cost him $20 million. It looks like that number has gone up.

When reached Saturday, a day after the Astros advanced to the World Series with a win over the Boston Red Sox, McIngvale said his store was being overrun by customers looking to take advantage of the promotion.

“Today is the biggest day in the store's history,” he said. “By a factor of about four and it's going up all the time. We're going to sell thousands of mattresses. I can't even count them. We're trying to buy them as fast as we can get them. We can't buy them fast enough. It will literally be thousands of mattresses.”

Believing that the promotion would prove to be a huge success, McIngvale made his wagers on June 10, when the Astros were still considered one of many teams with a good shot at going all the way. He bet $2 million that the Astros would win the World Series with William Hill at odds of 10-1 and another $1 million at 10-1 with Fanduel. He also made two smaller wagers at outlets that gave him 16-1. In total, he bet $3.2 million on the Astros.

The Astros are now an odds-on favorite to win their first World Series since 2017.

“I like to gamble,” McIngvale said. “I gamble big all the time. It's a promotion and it's a hedge. My heart and soul are with the Houston Astros, and, just as with Runhappy, I'm all in.”

For a while, it looked like McIngvale had backed a loser. The Astros fell behind, 2-1, in the series with Boston and their starting pitching was a mess. Many a pundit had already given the series to the Red Sox. Instead, the Astros rallied to win the next three games to close out the series and advance.

“I was not worried,” McIngvale said. “After they got beat Monday night, I was in Boston having a good time and saw some of the players that I know and they were upbeat and positive. I knew that sooner or later every batter on the Red Sox would stop hitting. 500. I knew there would be a statistical swing and things sure swung the Astros way over the last three games.”

Having a potential World Series winner at 10-1 means that McIngavle could “save” and bet some amount to win on the National League team. By doing so, he could lock in a guaranteed profit. It's not going to happen.

“I would consider that treason,” he said. “I would never do that to my boys. I wouldn't do that in a thousand years.”

With so many customers buying mattresses on Saturday, it was difficult for McIngvale to do the math. He knows he will make $35.6 million if the Astros win, but there was no telling how much he would lose giving away so many mattresses. That didn't matter with him. Not only is his heart with his hometown, he wants nothing more than to reward his customers with free mattresses.

“It will make customers happy and that's the whole idea,” he said of an Astros World Championship. “That's the whole idea, making customers happy. That's the name of the game. If the customers get their money back, they will talk about this for decades to come.”

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Going ‘Public’ In the Hill Prince

It had been an almost-unheard-of five years since trainer Chad Brown unsaddled the winner of Belmont's GII Hill Prince S., but Klaravich Stables' Public Sector (GB) (Kingman {GB}) put pay to that 'streak', racing within shouting distance of a surprisingly moderate tempo, then finishing with a telling late turn of speed to run his graded stakes winning skein to three Saturday afternoon on Long Island.

A firming 33-10 chance after trading as high as 5-1 early in the wagering, the 170,000gns Tattersalls October yearling acquisition landed in third position and raced a touch keenly as a headstrong Never Surprised (Constitution) took them along through a quarter in :24.35 and a half in just :49.71 while chased by 45-1 It Can Be Done (Temple City). Racing in the two and three path on the turn while slowly gaining on the pace-advantaged leaders, Irad Ortiz, Jr. took a confident look behind and to his right aboard Public Sector with about 2 1/2 furlongs to travel, set his sights on Never Surprised entering the final eighth of a mile and reeled that stubborn rival in to add to his two most recent victories in the GII Hall of Fame S. and GIII Saranac S., both at Saratoga. Never Surprised held for second ahead of It Can Be Done.

Soldier Rising (GB) (Frankel {GB}), favored off runner-up efforts to Saturday's G1 Cox Plate hero State of Rest (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) in the GI Saratoga Derby Aug. 7 and to the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Turf-bound Yibir (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the Jockey Club Derby Sept. 1, was done no favors by the lack of tempo and could finish only fifth after racing near the tail of the field. His final three furlongs were clocked in :33.68, bettered only by the fourth-placed Hilliard (Temple City, :33.67).

“He has a great mind, this horse,” the winning jockey commented. “He switched off when I wanted him to and when I asked him to respond, he gave me a great turn of foot.”

Brown indicated that Public Sector would follow in the hoofprints of Domestic Spending (GB) (Kingman {GB}) and make his next appearance in the GI Hollywood Derby at Del Mar Nov. 27.

Pedigree Notes:

Having purchased likes of Domestic Spending, Digital Age (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) and Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) at Tattersalls' flagship October Yearling Sale, Seth Klarman's Klaravich Stables acquired no fewer than 11 yearlings during Book 1 of the 2019 auction through agent Mike Ryan at price points as lofty as 450,000gns and as low as 75,000gns.

Public Sector is one of 42 stakes winners and 22 group/graded winners for his wildly successful Banstead Manor-based stallion, whose progeny are flying his flag with distinction all across the globe. Kingman's five-time Group 1-winning son Palace Pier (GB) won the G1 Lockinge S., the G1 Queen Anne S. and repeated in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois and was second to the unbeaten Baaeed (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) in the G1 Queen Elizabeth S. at Ascot earlier this month. He was recently retired to Darley's Dalham Hall Stud.

Domestic Spending has built on his Hollywood Derby victory this term, adding the GI Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (dead heat) and the GI Manhattan S. ahead of a pace-compromised second in the GI Mister D. S. The 4-year-old makes his next start in the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Turf. Kingman is also the sire of top Japanese miler Schnell Meister (Ger), winner of the age-restricted G1 NHK Mile Cup in May and who recently bested G1 Yasuda Kinen hero Danon Kingly (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in a thrilling renewal of the G2 Mainichi Okan.

The last listed produce for Parle Moi is a yearling colt by Golden Horn (GB) that was purchased by SackvilleDonald for 100,000gns at this year's Tattersalls October Book 1 sale.

Saturday, Belmont Park
HILL PRINCE S.-GII, $400,000, Belmont, 10-23, 3yo, 1 1/8mT, 1:48.68, fm.
1–PUBLIC SECTOR (GB), 122, c, 3, by Kingman (GB)
                1st Dam: Parle Moi (Ire), by Montjeu (Ire)
                2nd Dam: Di Moi Oui (GB), by Warning (GB)
                3rd Dam: Biosphere (GB), by Pharly (Fr)
(170,000gns Ylg '19 TATOCT). O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-The
Kathryn Stud (GB); T-Chad C. Brown; J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $220,000.
Lifetime Record: 9-5-3-0, $598,600. Werk Nick Rating: A. Click
for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Never Surprised, 119, c, 3, Constitution–Tiz Dixie, by Tiznow.
($30,000 Wlg '18 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-Repole
Stable; B-Golden Pedigree LLC (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher.
$80,000.
3–It Can Be Done, 118, g, 3, Temple City–Gotham City Girl, by
Freud. O/B-Red Oak Stable (KY); T-Gregory D. Sacco. $48,000.
Margins: NK, 1 3/4, 3/4. Odds: 3.30, 7.50, 48.75.
Also Ran: Hilliard, Soldier Rising (GB), War Bomber (Ire), Sifting Sands (GB), Slicked Back, He'spuregold, Founder, Original. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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‘Hot Rod’ Tunes Up at Santa Anita

Top sophomore and last month's GI Pennsylvania Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) put in his penultimate work for the GI Breeders' Cup Classic Saturday, breezing seven panels at Santa Anita in 1:26.60 (1/1). Regular rider Flavien Prat was aboard.

“He galloped out good and we're feeling good,” said trainer Doug O'Neill. “He'll ship Wednesday to Del Mar where he'll have his final work.”

The Classic looks likely to have plenty of early pace, which could prove advantageous to a stalker like Hot Rod Charlie.

“Today he sat off a workmate and there were a couple others out there from other barns, so he kind of sat in behind three horses, split 'em turning for home and finished up good,” O'Neill said. “He had a taste of what the Classic could look like… He's versatile, so we have options.”

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