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Racing’s Crystal Ball – 10 Predictions For 2024

Anyone who bets on racing will know too well the perils that come with predicting the outcome of a sporting event. But what if we take it a couple of steps further and, for a bit of fun, try and gaze into the crystal ball and see what could be in store for 2024?

From Frankie Dettori returning to the saddle in Europe to Wathnan Racing continuing its march in Britain, here are 10 predictions-some fun and some serious-for the new year.

Dettori's Groundhog Day To Continue Into 2024

We've all seen the movie Groundhog Day, haven't we? The one where Bill Murray gets caught in a time loop? Well, if you haven't, the same script could well be playing out for real through Frankie Dettori's retirement [or lack thereof].

For all the people who had convinced themselves that Dettori had achieved a dream send-off when guiding King Of Steel to victory in the Champion S. at Ascot, there were just as many people rolling their eyes at the idea that one of the world's greatest riders was ready to set off into the sunset.

Of course, Dettori has committed to ride on in America for the winter but, what happens after that? What happens if a big-ticket ride becomes available for a Guineas or a Derby? Don't tell me that Dettori, who arguably rode as well last year as he has in years, is going to give up on that opportunity for the sake of staying true to his word?

The farewell tour served its purpose and generated a subplot for almost every major meeting that Dettori rode at in 2023. However, the thought that we have seen the last of Frankie in Europe is not something I'd be taking short odds on this year.

Classic Glory On The Cards For Blue Point?

From a bloodstock perspective, Blue Point hogged just as many headlines as Frankie did throughout 2023. Tipped by many to scoop first-season sire honours, Blue Point delivered in no uncertain terms, coming up trumps with two genuine top-notchers in Big Evs and Rosallion.

The latter has real claims of bagging Classic glory for his young sire sensation this year and is just 12-1 to land the 2,000 Guineas. Big Evs proved he is a classy sprinter to look forward to when bagging the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and the likelihood of him landing a major sprint in Europe is strong.

It's worth noting that Blue Point's most famous triumphs, his back-to-back Royal Ascot successes in the King's Stand S. and Diamond Jubilee S. back in 2019, came in his five-year-old campaign. The best may yet be to come from his progeny in 2024 and beyond and, if he is to bag a breakthrough Classic success, perhaps it may come through Rosallion in the Irish 2,000 Guineas provided City Of Troy stays away.

Bank On Sangster To Have A Big Year

Oliver Sangster | Keeneland

Speaking of breakthrough successes at the highest level, there is a chance that up-and-coming trainer Ollie Sangster can bag a first Group 1 or even Classic victory with stable star Shuwari this season.

Grandson of the late Robert Sangster, Ollie has done his bit to keep the family name in lights and enjoyed a stellar debut season as a trainer by sending out 13 winners from 81 runners, highlighted by the Fillies' Mile runner-up Shuwari.

According to those who know Sangster best, there are few trainers who work as hard as the 27-year-old, who would be thoroughly deserving of a major day in the sun in 2024. Here's hoping Shuwari can provide Sangster just that and her 1,000 Guineas claims would be greatly aided by the word soft appearing in the going description.

Tough Task For City Of Troy To Live Up To Lofty Reputation

City Of Troy proved himself to be something out of the ordinary as a two-year-old by going unbeaten in three starts, culminating with a jaw-dropping performance in the Dewhurst.

It was after the Dewhurst where Aidan O'Brien described City Of Troy as being the best two-year-old he has ever trained while Michael Tabor took it up a notch or two by comparing the horse to Frankel.

City Of Troy has generated much debate since that brilliant Dewhurst display but perhaps it might be wisest to side with Mick Kinane, who, in acknowledging the awesome talent the Ballydoyle-trained colt clearly has, said that he still has a lot to prove in order to be compared with the likes of Sea The Stars and Frankel.

Certainly at this juncture, City Of Troy would appear the most likely winner of the 2,000 Guineas, which his general even-money odds reflects. However, whether we will be speaking of him in the same ilk as Frankel come the end of the season, now that is a big ask.

One thing that isn't up for debate is that Justify is quickly confirming himself as a very serious stallion, not only in America and Australia, but also in Europe. Not long after City Of Troy recorded his Dewhurst demolition, Justify's daughter Opera Singer did something similar in the Prix Marcel Boussac.

Both horses sit at the head of the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas betting respectively and it will be fascinating to see how their careers progress this term.

Japan To Win The Derby

Yoshito Yahagi | Emma Berry

Now this would be a bit of fun; what if Japan were to win the Derby? Or, if I was to be more specific, what if trainer Yoshito Yahagi was to take out another major prize on the international circuit by sending out a brother to Sottsass to score at Epsom? You know, it's not impossible.

Shin Emperor is clearly bred for the job. Bought by Yahagi, who has recorded major success at the Breeders' Cup, Dubai World Cup and Saudi Cup meetings in recent years, for €2.1 million at Arqana in 2021, Shin Emperor has always been held in high regard.

A Group 3 winner already in Japan, he went down by less than a length in the G1 Hopeful S. at Nakayama over the festive period, doing his reputation no harm in the process.

Yahagi is famous for travelling his horses all over the world and, in Shin Emperor, he has a colt who clearly fits the Derby profile being a brother to the Arc winner Sottsass. In betting terms, this is one of the more fanciful predictions for 2024, but what a story it would be.

Pinatubo To Emulate Blue Point

Sottsass, of course, is one of the first-season stallions that many enthusiasts are looking forward to this year. While his stock has gone down extremely well, highlighted by the sale of a €525,000 colt at Arqana last year, it seems as though everyone who is anyone is tipping Pinatubo to emulate Blue Point by coming up trumps for Darley yet again.

Many of the top industry judges hitched their wagon to Blue Point's wheel last year and we all know how that ended. The same theme developed at the yearling and foal sales last year with Pinatubo and to a similar extent with fellow Darley stallions Earthlight and Ghaiyyath. One thing's for certain: Darley appears to hold all the aces with a view towards this year's first-season sires' championship and, while it is only January, few people will be betting against Pinatubo being a big success.

It should also be noted how well Hello Youmzain performed with his stock at the sales in France. He could be well placed to clinch champion first-season honours in France.

Breeze-Up Market To Stay Strong Despite Market Correction

There were some tough moments in 2023 and it's fair to say that the yearling and breeding stock sales were a struggle for many. Market correction was a term we heard plenty of as many of the key figures at some of the major sales in Europe settled back into pre-Covid levels.

With that in mind, there is understandably some apprehension heading into the new year and the first major metric into how well things are going in 2024 will come at the breeze-up sales.

But just how much of a correction can we expect to see here? There seems to be a huge demand for the ready-to-run horses and the breeze-up sales have never been a more popular shopping outlet for international buyers than it is now.

It should also be noted that unbeaten two-year-old and dual Group 1 winner Vandeek, who sold to Anthony Stroud for 625,000gns at the Craven Breeze-Up Sale at Tattersalls last year, did his bit to fly the flag for this sector of the market.

In many ways, the breeze-up market could be viewed as something of an anomaly as, similar to the point-to-point sphere, there should, in theory, always be a demand for a good horse.

The middle to upper tiers can be expected to be solid at the breeze-up sales come the spring but it will be interesting to see how the median and clearance rates hold up.

Wathnan Racing To Continue Its March

Richard Brown: buys on behalf of Wathnan Racing | Zuzanna Lupa

One man who is sure to be out in force at the breeze-up sales is Blandford Bloodstock's Richard Brown but, perhaps most interesting of all, will be the bloodstock agent's buying on behalf of Wathnan Racing.

Wathnan Racing embarked on ownership in Britain with a number of statement victories, none more so than when private purchase Courage Mon Ami won the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot on just his fourth career start.

It's likely that Wathnan Racing, which is the ownership vehicle of the Emir Of Qatar, can go from strength to strength in 2024.

Tough Times Ahead For Smaller Breeders

Ed Harper of Whitsbury Manor Stud said something frightening in a recent TDN Q&A. When commenting on some of the smaller clients of his who enjoyed a touch when selling foals by the stud's superstar stallion Havana Grey, he revealed that for many, their big payday would be just enough to keep them going for just a few more years, such are the choppy waters the smaller breeders are navigating through right now.

If you were to take an x-ray of the breeding game in its current form and peg it into the light, it wouldn't make for pretty reading, especially in Britain. That was there for everyone to see on the first and last days of the foal sales at Tattersalls in December where many key stakeholders voiced their concerns about the future of the smaller breeder in Britain.

Of course, this is not a problem exclusive to Britain, but Brexit and the lack of small-time buyers and pinhookers getting into the game compared to Ireland clearly contributed to some of those frightening figures.

It begs the question; for how long can this continue? Where there is a will there's a way, and in that same Q&A, Harper called on smaller breeders to take a look at themselves in the mirror when it comes to breeding horses for the sales ring.

Some will take that advice and reinvest but, inevitably, more will slip away. It appears as though there could be some tough times ahead for the smaller breeders.

No Sign Of Polarisation Slowing Down Over Jumps

On a similarly depressing theme, there doesn't appear to be any pause to polarisation in the markets, particularly when it comes to the National Hunt game. There could be a different winner to ever race at the Cheltenham festival and, chances are, people will still be honing in on the same two stallions at the major store sales.

King George hero Hewick once again reminded that a good horse can come from anywhere. Shark Hanlon's 800 quid wonder is by Virtual, a son of Pivotal and, without doing the horse a disservice, is what many would describe as a non descript stallion.

But here he is, siring the winner of one of the most important jumps races of the year, and once again proving that the love is more readily shared than what some would lead you to believe over jumps.

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ITBA to Host Seminar on Challenges Facing Irish NH Breeding

The Irish Thoroughbred Breeders' Association (ITBA) will stage a seminar to discuss the issues surrounding jump breeding in the country on Wednesday, January 17 at The Lord Bagenal in Leighlinbridge, Co Carlow.

Entitled 'Jumping into the Future: The Challenges Facing Irish National Hunt Breeding', the debate will be led by trainer and breeder Lorna Fowler of Rahinston Farm and Stud. The panel consists of bloodstock agents Anthony Bromley and Bertrand Le Metayer, breeder and stud owner Peter Molony, vet and consignor Walter Connors, and Tattersalls Ireland director Richard Pugh.

Doors will open at 6 p.m. and attendees are encouraged to arrive early to take advantage of a networking opportunity prior to the start of the seminar at 6:30 p.m.

ITBA chair Cathy Grassick said, “I am excited at the prospect of hearing from our expert panel on all issues relevant to our industry. This is a crucial time for the market and an important event for everyone to voice their opinion.”

William Flood, who chairs the ITBA National Hunt committee, added, “This is a very important time for the industry in light of recent results at the sales. Our National Hunt committee has gathered an expert panel to help talk through these important topics.”

Those intending to attend the seminar must register via email on ddeveney@itba.ie or by calling the ITBA on 045 877 543. ITBA members and non-members are welcome to attend this free event, at which light refreshments will be provided.

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JRA Calls on Top Eventer Boyd Martin for Ex-Racehorse Clinic

At no time has the issue of welfare within the horseracing industry been more of an important topic, and that includes what happens to horses beyond their racing careers. Encouragingly, there is much work being done around the world to ensure that retired racehorses are homed and utilised in a range of ways, from being companion horses through to competing at the highest level in other disciplines.

With a leaning towards the latter option, the Japan Racing Association (JRA) hosted a clinic with leading event rider Boyd Martin in the week before Christmas.

Based in America since 2007, the Australian-born Martin recently collected his seventh Rider of the Year Award from the United States Eventing Association. Along with competing all over the world, he has been a regular visitor to Japan, where the three-day clinic included tuition and advice in cross-country, showjumping and dressage. Held in conjunction with Godolphin's Lifetime Care programme, the programme also featured guest appearances from top jockeys Christophe Lemaire and Hiroshi Kitamura to discuss the versatility of the Thoroughbred.

“It's been absolutely brilliant,” Martin told TDN as the clinic wrapped up. “This is the fourth time we've done this clinic and it's awesome coming out to Japan, working with all the Japanese riders with a lot of retired racehorses. There were 36 horses here at the clinic and we were lucky enough to use the venue where the Tokyo Olympics were held, right in the centre of the city.”

The work did not all take place in the saddle, however, with classroom sessions supplementing the ridden phases in the arena. A number of the riders in attendance were repeat visitors from previous clinics, and one former attendee now works for Martin as the head rider at his stable in Pennsylvania.

“We had an awesome group of riders. They were all passionate about restarting Thoroughbreds in their second career once they've finished racing,” he said.

“There was an assortment of off-the-track Thoroughbreds: some that had not finished racing long ago, and then a few that have been converted into sport horses for a couple of seasons. We had six or seven groups, some Thoroughbreds looking to change career into eventing, a number into showjumping, and then a couple of groups of dressage.”

Martin is a fervent believer in the power of the Thoroughbred in other disciplines, especially his own field of three-day eventing. He speaks from experience, too, having campaigned the American-bred former racehorse Blackfoot Mystery, a gelding by Out Of Touch whom he took all the way to the Olympics.

He said, “In the sport of eventing, our most influential phase is the cross-country, where we need an animal that's got stamina and endurance and athleticism to take us around the courses. And the off-the-track Thoroughbred is the ultimate breed. The horses are born and bred to gallop and run, and their spirit and nature is just a horse that gives its all. And if we can find ones that are good at the dressage and showjumping, there's no better horse in the world.”

Martin continued, “I rode an off-the-track Thoroughbred around the Rio Olympics in 2016. And through my success there, I had to give a speech at the Preakness on how unbelievable this horse was. Blackfoot Mystery came through a retired racehorse programme.

“At the same time, the folks from Godolphin and the JRA and the National Riding Club Association of Japan were really looking to change the culture a bit in Japan and to make sure that the horses had a second chance of a new career once they finished racing here, and that's how I ended up getting involved.

“With the racing in Japan, there's a lot of longer-distance racing. The Thoroughbreds here are bigger, stronger animals. And they're just beautifully suited to a second career as a sport horse because they are big-boned and they're tall and rangy, and the majority of them have just wonderful movements.”

Blackfoot Mystery went from being unsold when offered as a yearling to making three underwhelming starts on the track in California before eventually finding his metier at five-star level in eventing, the equivalent of being a Group 1 winner. The fact that, with Martin, he represented America at the Olympics at the age of 12 is also testament to the great durability of Thoroughbreds, wherever their second walk of life may take them.

“It's something I'm very passionate about, and I'm very honoured and privileged that they'd have me out here to do this,” said Martin.

“This is the fourth year we've done it. And each year the quality of training and the quality of riding is getting better and better.”

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Freddie McKibbin Q&A: ‘My Auctioneering Style Is Lots Of Energy’

Freddie McKibbin has established himself as one of the most recognisable auctioneers at Tattersalls in a short space of time. The achievement is impressive enough given McKibbin is just 25 years of age. But the fact that he didn't set out to be an auctioneer in the first place is all the more creditable.

McKibbin sat down with Brian Sheerin during the December Mares Sale to discuss his career to date and hopes for the future for the latest TDN Q&A.

It's hard to believe that you've only been auctioneering for two years.

I started in August 2021 but it feels like I have been doing it for a good while now. Auctioneering at Book 2 this year was nerve-wracking but, since then, it just feels like it is second nature for me which is encouraging.

And you didn't set out to be an auctioneer, either.

No, that's true. I started bid spotting for Tattersalls during my gap year to try and earn a little bit of extra money on the side. I was working as a pupil assistant with Simon Crisford at the time. I'd always looked at the auctioneers and thought, 'God, I could never do that.' A couple of years later, after I'd done the Irish National Stud course and worked in Australia, I came back and applied for the Tattersalls internship. Luckily, I got that, but it wasn't until I sat down with Ollie Fowlston that I thought about becoming an auctioneer. When you think of auctioneering, you think of the American and Australian way of doing things, where the numbers just roll off the tongue. Obviously at Tattersalls, we have a more traditional way of doing things, where you make out what the auctioneer is saying and the figures the auctioneer is asking for. I initially thought I'd be too boring-and just say numbers, numbers, numbers-but I practiced a lot and Ollie came up to the ring with me quite a bit at the start. He was my mentor and the guy who honed in on me and said, 'right, if you want to give auctioneering a go, this is what you need to do.' Edmond Mahony was also a huge help and he invested a lot of time in coming up to the ring whilst I was practising and giving me advice and things to work on. It took a good year of practicing pretty much three or four times a week before I was ready for the real thing.

What does that unseen practice consist of?

So, we'd do it in sections. The ring would be completely empty but for me and Ollie. We'd start with the figures, going from one thousand, to two thousand and three thousand, and just get into a patter from there. Next we'd add in the fillers, which would be, 'bid again,' for example and then we could concentrate on introducing the lot and eventually the selling of the lot. We'd do it all in different parts before piecing it all together in the empty ring. Once I got to a certain stage Edmond would then come up with me, he would put his hand up and I would take the bid from him. I wasn't allowed to go on to the next bid until he took his hand down. I was like, 'right, this is a live situation,' and I had to stay on that figure and work as though it was a real sale. Essentially, counting is the easy part, but it's when you haven't got any bid and you have to fill the time, that's when it becomes tricky.

Even for me watching on as a journalist, I find it hard to track who's bidding so I can only imagine how difficult it is for you to maintain your rhythm as well as everything else.

It is difficult and, here at Tattersalls, we can't take a bid unless we have seen it. At other sales houses, they have bid spotters who can make noises to signify a bid has been taken, but we don't do that here. The bidder has to bid to the auctioneer at Tattersalls for it to be accepted. There's a lot going on but, it's really enjoyable and, the more you do something, the more confident you get. My confidence is growing but, again, there's still lots to be working on and I still try and come up to the ring when I can to practise. I do a lot of charity gigs as well to keep the momentum going in between sales. I did the Leger Legends auction at Doncaster which raises money for the Injured Jockeys Fund. They're actually great fun to do because it's a completely different kettle of fish. You need to be sharp as you are selling different items and you're not trying to be funny but, on the other hand, it shouldn't be boring. They're definitely good to do.

Does it ever become daunting? For a lot of sellers, how their horse gets on in the ring can make or break their year and, if it doesn't go right, you could be an easy person to blame.

Exactly. You're in control of the room and, no matter what the vendor has done or what the purchaser is planning on doing, you're the bridge, you're the broker. It is high pressure stuff and I try not to think about it like that. When I tend to think about a high valued lot or a lot where I know the vendor is expecting to get well paid, that can sometimes hold you back in a way, so I try to treat every lot the same, no matter the status. Obviously I do take it all into account but, in general, I try to treat them all the same in a bid to alleviate the pressure and it's something that works well for me. My hope is to always come off the rostrum after giving it everything I can and hopefully there's a happy vendor at the end of it all.

In terms of satisfaction, I'd say selling I'm A Gambler for 850,000gns at the horses-in-training sale last year and taking bids from some of the biggest players in the game from the rostrum outside would rank pretty highly?

Selling I'm A Gambler was brilliant because he exceeded both mine and Charlie Johnston's expectations. It was a great experience and one I am sure I will not forget! During Book 1, I was out on the podium. You've got some big players outside and some of them can be discreet bidders so it's all about knowing when they're bidding and being careful not to miss a bid. Thinking about it, it's actually brilliant practice for what I will hopefully in time encounter up on the rostrum at Book 1 and in the Sceptre Sessions. That is the main aim; to sell at Book 1 and the Sceptre Sessions in time.

Along with I'm A Gambler, are there any other moments that stick out in the memory bank?

Well the I'm A Gambler one is funny because, when you watch the video back, it looks as though I've pulled my hamstring atop of the rostrum. When the Najd Stud team bid again, I dropped down as though I'd pulled my hamstring, as I wasn't expecting it. It got circulated on social media and, while it was funny, I'm not sure it was the most professional moment! That sticks out but there have been a few slips of the tongue at times as well.

Of course, auctioneering is not the only string to your bow here at Tattersalls. You've climbed the ladder pretty fast and have become a recognisable and friendly face of the company.

Working hard and gaining as much experience as possible is the priority. There are so many different facets to the business and I have a lot to learn. I do the stabling for the yearling sales and other sales bar December, where I do a lot of organising and help run the Sceptre Sessions, for example. That is great. We target the high-quality fillies and mares and try to give people an incentive to sell at the Sceptre Sessions. I have enjoyed that and it is very rewarding when you see the Sceptre Sessions producing such strong results for the vendors who support Tattersalls. There's lots to the role and I try to get over to other sales to represent the company. Yearling and breeze-up inspections are another big part of it. That's a process I'm looking forward to doing more of next year.

You touched on the fact you've spent time with Simon Crisford, did the Irish National Stud Course and have worked in Australia as well. You've crammed a lot in for a 25-year-old.

I just wanted to get as much experience in different areas of the industry as possible. I spent a year with Simon as a pupil assistant and learned all things hands on. There were a few great guys there, including Les Reynolds, the travelling head lad. He basically showed me the ropes and took me under his wing. I don't come from a hands-on background in horses–my Dad is in equine insurance and my grandfather is Tim Richards, who was a racing journalist–but the passion was always there. The hands-on experience is what I was keen to get and Simon was brilliant for giving me advice. It made sense to me to kick on and bypass university, plus the Irish National Stud course was a great experience and I met some great mates there. After that, I went to work for Arrowfield Stud in Australia, so it was all packed into a short space of time.

You're obviously very ambitious.

I like to think that I am the type of person that when I put my mind to something I put all my focus and energy into it and try to be the best I can be at whatever it is. I was not the best at school but always loved sport and rugby was my passion. I ended up being captain for the first team and thankfully I didn't disgrace myself in my final exams either. I have always been very driven and I definitely have a competitive side. It certainly shows when I play golf with my dad and brother!

With that in mind, where would you see yourself in five years' time?

Hopefully selling at Book 1 and the Sceptre Sessions and being a senior inspector for Tattersalls. I don't know what will come after that but I will continue to work on honing my craft as an auctioneer and working within the company at Tattersalls.

Did you ever think of race commentating?

It's funny you say that because Richard Pugh, a Director of Tattersalls Ireland and a race commentator said the same to me and Matt Hall. He said that the two of us should think about giving it a go. Look, I wouldn't say no to it. I can remember being put on the spot to commentate on the Hennessy, or races like that in front of friends, and it's mind-blowingly difficult. It's not something I'd rule out!

In terms of theatre and drama, I'd imagine there are few better places to work than at Tattersalls.

It's an amazing place. Everybody goes back to Marsha or Alcohol Free selling here but even some of the smaller lots are fascinating. I'll never forget Alastair [Pim, fellow auctioneer] selling the Kingman half-sister to Chaldean for a million. The way he got to a million was seriously impressive. Sometimes that theatre is seriously engrossing.

Being an auctioneer yourself, you can probably appreciate the craft better than anyone on the big days.

Definitely. It is a skill being able to get up there and remember everything you need to know about each horse, their physicality, their pedigree, the instructions from the vendor and spotting bids all whilst keeping your patter and potentially having one of the rostrum spotters giving you instructions at the same time. And then you have the added pressure of the big days when you know you have a lot who is the highlight. At the end of the day Tattersalls works on behalf of the vendor and for most it is their livelihood, so you want to do the best you can for them and get the result they want. I remember coming up to Tattersalls when I was younger and being so impressed by the auctioneers. Not only were they good at their job, but they were also entertaining whilst keeping their nerve and staying calm under pressure on the big lots. It is something I have tried to take into account with my own style and I try to let my energy and enthusiasm show from the rostrum. I am lucky that I have learnt from some of the best auctioneers in the game!

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