This Side Up: A Coup d’Etat to Benefit Us All

In these days of wilful division and reluctant separation, perhaps the wider world could for once learn something from our own community. For while our preoccupations may be frivolous, relative to such momentous challenges as the securing of democracy or public health, they do at least inculcate precisely the kind of calm forbearance most needed, right now, to quell the hysteria and despair infecting national wellbeing.

It’s pouring with rain? Go feed your horse and clean out the stall. Middle of a heatwave? Go feed your horse and clean out the stall. The trough has frozen to the depth of your fist? Go feed your horse and clean out the stall. You have no choice; and you have no guarantees. How often does it happen that your reward, for all your dependability and patience and exertion, is a split-second that instantly unravels daily increments of endeavor amounting to months, seasons, years? Yet still we persevere, ever animated by faith in what we are doing; faith in our horses. Or, if not faith, at least hope. And it just feels like a lot of people out there could do with a little more of that.

Even the Breeders’ Cup, the game-changing innovation of the modern industry, is now into its 37th cycle. And if the differences in the experience this year could scarcely be less welcome, the host city and its racetrack have banked enough Turf history to absorb even the bleakest addition to precedent. If the stands loom emptily over the stretch, they still teem with the glad spectres of horsemen and women past–whose lore, whose length of perspective, has seeped into the Bluegrass generation by generation, as gradual as the dew laid through cold hours of darkness to offer a sparkling welcome to a new day.

Because we know that dawn will come. It will bring fresh challenges, no doubt, as well as fresh hope. But the sun will rise in the same place, to the same clatter of buckets, the same impatient nickering.

That’s why there could be no more fitting winner of the American sport’s richest prize than Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike). Especially if he could be preceded to the winner’s enclosure by Starship Jubilee (Indy Wind), or Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect), or another from a handful of runners foaled in 2013. For these are living monuments to the shared resilience of the Thoroughbred and its custodians; and, whatever happens here, the light they have collectively shed on this gloomiest of years has already shown us how to keep the faith.

It is five years and one day since Whitmore won by seven lengths on debut at Churchill. Before discovering his true vocation as a sprinter, he proceeded to finish last in the GI Kentucky Derby. And some of those ahead of him, from winner Nyquist (Uncle Mo) to seventh Brody’s Cause (Giant’s Causeway) and 14th Outwork (Uncle Mo), were represented on Friday’s juvenile program by first foals.

Whitmore at Keeneland | Coady

That’s not an option available to Whitmore, whose castration means that Ron Moquett, having maintained his enthusiasm with such skill, may yet eke out a fifth start in the GI B.C. Sprint at Del Mar next year. Tom’s d’Etat, however, will very soon discover just what he has been missing when he retires to WinStar–a farm with a remarkable stake in the GI Longines BC Classic.

Losing Pioneerof the Nile just as he was entering his pomp was all the more unfortunate given the ageing profile, at that point, of its other elite stallions. But WinStar is regenerating with purpose and, even while joining other farms in a series of pragmatic cuts for 2021, has been able to more than double Constitution’s fee to $85,000. If his son Tiz the Law happens to win the Classic, then the guys at WinStar may be almost as pleased as Coolmore, who will someday be welcoming him to Ashford.

WinStar is further represented, moreover, by Improbable (City Zip) and Global Campaign (Curlin). Given the sad news this week about Sagamore Farm, his co-owners, it would be especially poignant if Global Campaign were to outrun his odds as I expect.

My pick, however, remains Tom’s d’Etat–and not merely on grounds of sentiment. After stumbling out of the gate in the GI Whitney S., he was stuck behind petrified fractions (:25.12 and :49.74) and did well even to close for third to Improbable. Feeding off splits of :22.90 and :46.09 at Oaklawn in the spring, however, he had cut down the same rival decisively. That performance showed how well this horse operates off a break, and he has been duly freshened by a trainer who has been working back from this assignment all year. It was in a Grade II round here last fall, moreover, that Tom’s d’Etat announced his belated coming of age: the only Keeneland stakes success in this field.

The one pity is that Al Stall, Jr., having been ungraciously cast as the villain when Blame (Arch) spoiled the immaculate record of Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}), would find himself saluted with even less acclaim this time round. Whatever happens, he deserves immense credit for so patiently bringing Tom’s d’Etat to his full potential after just seven races across his first four years in training.

Global Campaign | Horsephotos

In fairness, the horse has become very sound with maturity and–from the final crop of a sire of sires, and with his second dam a sister to none other than Candy Ride (Arg)–looks an extremely attractive stud prospect. At WinStar, after all, he will be joining another stallion who has bucked the general trend by advancing his fee to $90,000 from $70,000. And Speightstown, who didn’t retire until he was six, is now rising 23.

So patience, once again: our perennial watchword. Seven starts across four seasons will have encompassed an awful lot of mornings–rainy, sunny, foggy, snowy–when his manger has been filled, his bedding changed, with no gallop. And that’s before we wind back to his pre-training, with Frank and Daphne Wooten; his preparation for the sales, just down the road from Keeneland at Hunter Valley Farm; never mind to the original drawing board of breeders SF Bloodstock.

Unlike Whitmore, Tom’s d’Etat won’t be racing into a third presidential term. But all these venerable animals reprove us that even the Classic racehorse is only an adolescent. A few years ago, researchers studied 274 American Thoroughbreds and established their average peak at 4.45 years.

Some benighted farms, no doubt, would be nervous of starting a stallion at eight. But since they tend to give up on most sires by the time they reach that age anyway, it’s hard to see the rush. Far better, surely, to give them a chance to demonstrate the kind of genetic attributes we should want to replicate in the breed.

So patience, everybody. Go feed your horse. And keep hoping.

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The Haiku Handicapper Presented By Form2Win: 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Time to analyze the 2020 Breeders' Cup Classic field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku; a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.

To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.

#1 – Tacitus
A frustrating case
Loves to almost win races
Gotta be due, right?

#2 – Tiz the Law
Could the crop's top horse
Be under the radar here?
His price could be fair

#3 – By My Standards
Few are more honest
Extra furlong's the question
Big price if he can

#4 – Tom's d'Etat
Classic Stall patience
Or did that nightmare Whitney
Snuff his momentum?

#5 – Title Ready
Shouldn't have a prayer
But the Dallas Stewart factor
Keeps him on notice

#6 – Higher Power
Struggled to break through
In the West Coast's shallow ranks
Needs his all-time best

#7 – Global Campaign
Trending the right way
Might have been my Dirt Mile pick
Less imposing here

#8 – Improbable
Once a cash burner
Now could be Baffert's best shot
Just keeps improving

#9 – Authentic
How he'll fare depends
On what's left in his reserves
From his Preakness war

#10 – Maximum Security
A rocky career
Approaches its conclusion
Feels like a bounce risk

Prediction
2020's weird
Let's give it to Tacitus
Eight, four, two follow

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Stall: The 3-Year-Olds Are The X Factor In This Year’s Classic

The Breeders' Cup will be one of the few major events in American racing taking place at its normal place in the calendar this year, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. But Tom's d'Etat trainer Al Stall Jr., said that we shouldn't forget that the schedule disruptions from earlier this year could still have an impact on the Classic.

“I don't think anyone's ever gone into the Classic and said it's a soft field,” Stall said. “There are a lot of superlatives talking about these horses and I agree. I think the X factor is the 3-year-olds. Because of the way the Triple Crown laid out these year, they've had a nice progression into the race. There are two 3-year-olds that really got my attention — obviously, Tiz the Law and Authentic — and that's a little bit different than in years past. Sometimes you'll get a 3-year-old who's a little bit down and out. Obviously Pharoah was the exception to that.

“It's all about the trip and the luck from here on out.”

Stall does not expect any one horse will be allowed to take an uncontested easy lead, and much of the race will come down to strategy. He's hopeful Tom's d'Etat can sit off the early going, but it will come down to how the traffic plays out.

Perhaps surprisingly, Stall said there's no one horse in this field that intimidates him more than any other, or even a handful. Stall said there are eight contenders (though he did not name them) he thinks could pull off a win.

If he were to win the Classic, Tom's d'Etat will have done it off one of the longest layoffs since Invasor (ARG) in 2006. Stall said the break from the Aug. 1 Grade 1 Whitney to the Classic was a combination of design and circumstance. He considered sending the horse to the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup but when the stakes schedule was released, he realized that gave him 28 days to get the horse from one effort to the next. Stall's gut told him to bring the 7-year-old in fresh. He let the horse relax for a little while, the began ramping up his breezes in mid-September and sent him out for an easy four-furlong work Oct. 31, which reminded him of the final work from Blame in 2010.

“He just went out there by himself and was looking around and stretching his legs,” said Stall. “He seems to have benefitted from that because he has seemed very, very comfortable all week.”

Much of the media attention (and likely, eventually, wagering) will be on Tiz the Law and the Baffert trio. It isn't the first time Stall has come into the Classic hoping to steal the spotlight. Zenyatta's loss to Blame was a heartbreaker for many in racing, but Stall has happy memories of that strange, quiet night at Churchill Downs.

“I just remember afterwards it was a perfectly clear, crisp, Kentucky fall evening and the sky was coral and the black was coming in. We were so happy for all the connections, everybody involved, the horse himself,” Stall remembered. “Our little pocket celebrated quite loudly while the rest of the grandstand was silent but we didn't notice that.”

Stall confirmed Tom's d'Etat will be retired after Saturday's races. Earlier this year, it was announced he will take up stud duties at WinStar farm.

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Equibase Analysis: Improbable, Tom’s D’Etat Horses To Beat In Breeders’ Cup Classic

The 37th running of the Grade 1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic brings together a field which must be described as top notch, with the sum of their earnings totaling nearly the entire total of $31 million dollars in purse money to be shared over the two days of the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

Three-year-olds Tiz the Law and Authentic represent the younger set, with the former having won the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and Grade 1 Travers Stakes and the latter victorious in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, but both enter the Classic off runner-up efforts which were very good, but with no real excuses for not winning. That's one matchup fans will definitely have their eyes on.

The other big matchup will be the second meeting between Improbable and Tom's d'Etat, the first resulting in Tom's d'Etat winning by three-quarters of a length in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April. Since then, Improbable is undefeated in three races including the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes in his most recent start while Tom's d'Etat won the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes before a stumbling break and third place finish in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes.

Then there's Maximum Security, who has won three of four races this year including the Group 1 Saudi Cup Stakes. Maximum Security enters the Classic off a non-threatening runner-up finish behind Improbable.

In addition, Tacitus won the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in July at the distance of the Classic and has managed only a second and third place finish since then. By My Standards finished second to Tom's d'Etat in the Foster then second behind Improbable in the Whitney and tries to turn the tables on those foes. Global Campaign won the Grade 1 Woodward Handicap in his most recent start and at the distance of the Classic and may be this good. Higher Power and Title Ready round out the field, with Higher Power winless in six straight races since capturing the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes in the summer of 2019 and with Title Ready having finished fifth and third in his last two races against easier competition.

Main contenders: Even with the fantastic depth in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, I think Improbable and Tom's d'Etat are the ones to beat and have the bulk of the probability to win. This assessment is based on not only how fast they've run, but their attitude about winning.

Tom's d'Etat won two graded stakes to close out his 2019 campaign including the Hagyard Fayette Stakes last fall at Keeneland That effort earned a 116 Equibase Speed Figure, the second best he had earned to that point in his career, with the best being 118 in the Alydar Stakes two months earlier. In his 2020 debut in April and even after five months off, Tom's d'Etat rallied from eighth to win the Oaklawn Mile Stakes over Improbable by three-quarters of a length with a 113 figure. In the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable had opened up a two length lead in the stretch and appeared to have victory in hand but Tom's d'Etat gained ground with every stride to win going away.

Two months later Tom's d'Etat won the Clark Stakes with a 116 figure and was on a pattern for significant improvement before a bad stumble at the start of the Whitney Stakes in August, resulting in a third place finish. Still, Tom's d'Etat improved to a 117 figure in the Whitney, quite impressive in my opinion. Whitney winner Improbable came right back to win the Awesome Again Stakes and runner-up By My Standards won the Alysheba Stakes, both flattering Tom's d'Etat. Particularly as Tom's d'Etat has relished returning off similar layoffs in the past, I think he can run just as he did in the Oaklawn Mile and post the mild upset in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

Improbable has become a different, better, horse since the addition of blinkers before last summer's Shared Belief Stakes. Going into that race, Improbable had won three of seven races but his two just prior to the Shared Belief were poor efforts when fifth in the Kentucky Derby and sixth in the Preakness Stakes. Since then, Improbable has won four of seven, but it's his most recent three efforts which were the most impressive. After returning from five months off and being defeated by Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes, Improbable won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June (at the distance of the Classic) with a 116  which was the second best of his career.

Following up with wins in the Whitney and in the Awesome Again, both with career-best 120 figures, Improbable enters the Classic in the best form of his life. As impressive is the authoritative way in which Improbable has run in his last three races, each time opening up by many lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and holding that advantage to the wire while unchallenged. Granted, in the Oaklawn Mile he had opened up as well and was run down by Tom's d'Etat in the stretch but since then no other horse has worried Improbable in the late stages. Therefore if Tom's d'Etat can't repeat what he did in the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable is very likely to have a commanding lead early in the stretch and win his fourth straight grade 1 race.

About the rest: Lines of separation between most of the other eight contenders in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic are thin, but the line separating them from the top two contenders is not thin in my opinion. I'll take them in alphabetical order, starting with Authentic, whose results on the track match his name with five wins and two runner-up efforts in seven starts. Two of those came at, or very close to, this Classic distance, in the Kentucky Derby and in the Preakness Stakes. Authentic ran valiantly in both, winning the former and coming up a neck shy of Swiss Skydiver in the latter. However, he did not improve in terms of his speed figures, with both efforts resulting in 109 figures, the same as he earned winning the Haskell Stakes in July. I'm just not enamored with this pattern, particularly as I would expect a three year old to continue to improve in the fall. He's a very talented horse but in my opinion he's no match for either Improbable or Tom's d'Etat at this stage.

The same can be said for By My Standards, who has won four of six this year and finished second in the two others. Those two runner-up efforts came behind Improbable in the Whitney and behind Tom's d'Etat in the Foster. Although the figures earned in those races, 118 and 110, respectively, were better than the 109 figures Authentic earned in his last three races, I don't see By My Standards turning the tables on either Improbable or Tom's d'Etat in the Classic.

Global Campaign earned back-to-back 109 figures in the Monmouth Cup and in the Woodward Handicap and although the latter came at the distance of the Classic I don't see him moving up to the level needed to win. Additionally, Global Campaign won both races leading from start to finish with the exception that he was second with an eighth of a mile to go in the Monmouth Cup. In this year's Classic that “early” running style is shared by Authentic and possibly By My Standards as well as Maximum Security.

Maximum Security was no match for Improbable in the Awesome Again, and when winning the Pacific Classic Stakes and San Diego Handicap prior to that faced competition which, for the most part, would be overmatched in this race. He did earn a 118 figure in the Pacific Classic but 107 in the San Diego and the 113 he earned in the Awesome Again was more of a function how fast Improbable ran than the effort Maximum Security put forth. There's no doubt Maximum Security is one of the best horses in the country at this level, but perhaps not the best in this field.

Tiz the Law would be a top contender in this year's Classic if not for the fact that it appears he peaked when winning the Travers Stakes in August. After winning four straight graded stakes from February through August, with a strong pattern of improving figures (112, 113 and 115) through the Travers, Tiz the Law not only could not pass Authentic in the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, his 107 figure suggests he was not as fast in September as he was earlier in the year. Still, he's another horse in this year's Classic with no real knocks, winning six of eight races in his career and earning $2.6 million.

Tacitus (110 best figure) has run evenly in his last two races with 107 and 105 figures and doesn't appear as fast, or to have as much will to win, as many of the others. Higher Power earned a 113 figure winning the 2019 Pacific Classic but hasn't shown the same ability since and particularly as he has been beaten three to six lengths in his last three races, twice by Maximum Security, he appears a bit over his head here. Title Ready earned a career-best 114 figure in the Stymie Stakes when second 19 months ago and has one allowance win to his credit since. He's never run the Classic distance so far in his career.

Win contenders:
Tom's d'Etat
Improbable

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Keeneland on Breeders' Cup Weekend (Friday 11/6 and Saturday 11/7), at Equibase.com

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