tom's d'etat | Horse Racing Free Tips

The Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Stakes brings together a field of eight quality horses in the Breeders' Cup Classic division, each hoping to earn an automatic spot into the gate for the November 8 running of the race at Keeneland, just 75 miles down the road from Churchill Downs.

Leading the field in terms of accomplishments is Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Grade 1 Clark Stakes, the fall version of the Stephen Foster. Since the Clark, Tom's d'Etat won the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in his only start of 2020 and although third in last year's Foster he is the one to beat on paper. Owendale is among many who have top stakes credentials, having won the Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs last month after finishing second to Tom's d'Etat in the Clark last fall.

Another strong contender is By My Standards, who has a perfect three-for-three record this year including the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap last month in his most recent race. Silver Dust is no slouch either, having led late in the Blame Stakes last month and coming up a neck short in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic Stakes last summer at this nine furlong distance while winning the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes and Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes in between.

Pirate's Punch finished third in the Mineshaft, as well as third in the Grade 3 Super Derby last summer and may have an edge in the pace department as the only horse who likes to lead early in the race. Multiplier won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby in 2017 at the distance of the Stephen Foster and proved he belongs with these when coming up a neck short in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March. Fearless makes his stakes debut off an eye-catching rally from last of 11 to win an allowance race last month at Churchill Downs. Alkhaatam rounds out the field, having won his last two dirt starts, noting however he finished 11th of 12 in last year's Foster.

Although there's no doubt Tom's d'Etat leads the field in terms of having earned field high 116 and 118 Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, Pirate's Punch may have a significant edge in terms of early speed that could help him to post the upset. Winner of four races from 14 starts, Pirate's Punch was most impressive in two of his last four efforts when winning by five and by 11 and one-half lengths, respectively. In both cases, Pirate's Punch established the lead and got very brave to be well in front when the field turned for home, giving no horse a chance to make up any ground. It may also be that Pirate's Punch can take back and sit off the pace as well. This is evidenced by his last effort where he rallied from fifth to get within a neck of the leader with an eighth of a mile to go, before being out finished but only beaten a half-length and a neck for the win.

Getting the two post position in the Foster, as well as the services of Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, I believe the tactic will be to go for the lead from the start, especially since the only horse inside of Pirate's Punch in the gate (Fearless) usually drops back and closes from far back. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind Pirate's Punch has the breeding to win this grade 1 race and to run well at one mile and one-eighth. Using STATS Race Lens to look at the history of other foals of the dam, I note both were exceptional, with combined earnings of $2.1 million. One of those was Girvin, winner of the 2017 Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes. As such, I'll take Pirate's Punch to get the lead from the opening of the gate and never look back in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.

Tom's d'Etat doesn't need much talking up, if any, in terms of being a strong contender to win this race. Winner of 10 races from 16 dirt starts, Tom's d'Etat proved himself last summer at the distance when winning the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga with a career-best 118 figure. Two races later, Tom's d'Etat duplicated the feat with a victory in the Grade 3 Fayette Stakes at the same distance, earning a 116 figure. Winning the Clark Stakes in November at Churchill Downs with a 113 figure led to a four and one-half month layoff. Returning as if he had never been away, Tom's d'Etat earned a 113 figure winning the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April. Having proven capable of winning off a layoff, there's no problem with the two and one-half months off since his last race and as he's won five or eight races at the distance including three of his last four, there is nothing to knock about this talented horse. Although he rallied from sixth and eighth, respectively, in his last two race, Tom's d'Etat raced closer up in second in the early stages of the Fayette Stakes so it is entirely possible Pirate's Punch will not get the easy early lead I envision and in that case it's very likely Tom's d'Etat will earn his 11th career win in this race.

By My Standards has really blossomed as a four year old, winning in his 2020 debut by six lengths then taking two straight grade stakes. Winner of the Louisiana Derby at the distance of the Foster last March as a three year old, By My Standards had already proven to be one of the top of his class but after a poor 12th place effort in the Kentucky Derby, the colt went on the sidelines. Given time to mature, he did just that with a win around two-turns off a nine month layoff with a 102 figure, then two races later he earned a career-best 106 figure in the Oaklawn Handicap at this mile and one-eighth distance. Showing he's fit as a fiddle with a half-mile workout one week ago that was the 11th best of 113 on the day and with it likely he has improving to do, By My Standards could really put his mark on the division with a win in this race and by doing so, stamp his name as one of the horses to strongly consider this fall in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I could make the case for any of the other five entrants in this race as their best efforts could be good enough to win. These horses, and their best Equibase Speed Figures, are Alkhaatam (105), Fearless (99), Multiplier (109), Owendale (108) and Silver Dust (114).

Win Contenders:
Pirate's Punch
Tom's d'Etat
By My Standards

Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, June 27 – Post Time 5:47 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $500,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Pirate’s Punch Could Lead All The Way In Stephen Foster appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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G M B Racing's 2019 Clark (Grade I) winner Tom's d'Etat will take on Allied Racing Stable's multiple Grade II winner By My Standards and Rupp Racing's recent Blame Stakes hero Owendale in Saturday's 39th running of the $500,000 Stephen Foster (GII) – the centerpiece of an action-packed program on the penultimate day of Churchill Downs' 27-day Spring Meet.

The 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster is the headliner of a stakes quartet on Saturday's 11-race program. The day of racing also will feature the $200,000 Fleur de Lis (GII), $100,000 Regret (GIII) and $100,000 Bashford Manor (GIII). First post is 1 p.m. (all times Eastern) and the Stephen Foster is slated at 5:47 p.m.

The Stephen Foster will be broadcast on NBC as part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series. The one-hour broadcast, which will begin at 5 p.m., also will include the Fleur de Lis. The winner of the Stephen Foster will get an automatic berth to the Breeders' Cup Classic (GI) while the winner of the Fleur de Lis will receive a berth to the Longines Distaff (GI). The Breeders' Cup World Championships will be held on Nov. 6-7 at Keeneland.

Combined, the Stephen Foster field has won 41 of their 131 starts (31.2%), including 17 stakes events, and earned more than $5.5 million.

Tom's d'Etat (17-10-2-1—$1,326,572) has won four of his last five starts including a 3 ¼-length score in last year's $600,000 Clark (GI). The now 7-year-old son of Smart Strike enters Saturday's Stephen Foster following a hard-fought victory in the April 11 $150,000 Oaklawn Mile.

“He has a history of running well off layoffs,” trainer Al Stall Jr. said. “He's never really left form even after he was freshened at Fair Grounds this winter when we were getting him ready for the second half of the year. We had talked about the (one-mile) Blame as a prep but when the schedule was shuffled around, we just decided to stick with the plan to run him in the Foster.”

With the redesigned stakes schedule at Churchill Downs and NYRA, Tom's d'Etat will be without his regular pilot Joel Rosario for the Stephen Foster due to his previous riding engagements in New York. Instead, Stall has installed one of his local go-to riders, Miguel Mena, to ride Tom's d E'tatfrom post position No. 5.

Even though Stall opted to skip the Blame with Tom's d'Etat, one of his main rivals in the Stephen Foster, Owendale, took full advantage of the May 23 one-mile race with a hard-closing half-length score under Florent Geroux. Trained by Brad Cox, Owendale (15-6-2-2—$1,129,185) will attempt to get the better of Tom's d'Etat following his runner-up effort in last year's Clark. Owendale, a 4-year-old son of Into Mischief, targeted some of the top 3-year-old events last year where he won a trio of Grade III events in the $200,000 Lexington, $500,000 Ohio Derby and $400,000 Oklahoma Derby. Owendalefinished third in last year's $1.5 million Preakness (GI).

“He was impressive coming back at one-turn (in the Blame),” Cox said. “He is a horse who I think will excel at two turns and his last race was just a prep as his first start of 2020. … He ran some tough races last year but appears to have taken a step forward now that he's older.”

Geroux will be in the saddle on Saturday from post 8.

Another top older horse that entered the Stephen Foster is last year's $1 million Louisiana Derby (GII) hero By My Standards (9-5-2-1—$1,281,910). Trained by Bret Calhoun, By My Standards returned as a 4-year-old in February at Fair Grounds with a convincing three-length victory in the $400,000 New Orleans (GII). By My Standards enters the Stephen Foster following a 1 ¾-length win in last month's $600,000 Oaklawn Stakes (GII).

Gabriel Saez, who has been aboard By My Standards for all of his nine-career races, was named to ride in the Stephen Foster and drew post 6.

Also entered in the Stephen Foster is By My Standards' stablemate Silver Dust (28-6-7-3—$787,577). Owned by Tom Durant, Silver Dust is a three-time graded stakes winner including a narrow victory in February's $200,000 Mineshaft (GIII) at Fair Grounds. Silver Dust finished third, only three-quarters of a length behind Owendale, in the Blame.

Adam Beschizza will be aboard Silver Dust from post 7.

The Stephen Foster field is rounded out by Gulliver Racing, Craig Drager and Dan Legan's multiple graded stakes placed Pirate's Punch (14-4-2-1—$197,751), Shadwell Stable's recent allowance winner Alkhaatam (15-4-0-2—$238,478), China Horse Club and WinStar Farm's three-time winnerFearless (5-3-1-0—$118,520) and Wachtel Stable, George Kerr and Gary Barber's Santa Anita Handicap (GI) runner-up Multiplier (28-3-5-4—$492,950), who was beaten on nose on Saturday at Santa Anita.

The complete field for the Stephen Foster (with jockey and trainer): Fearless (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher); Pirate's Punch (Mike Smith, Grant Forster); Alkhaatam (Declan Cannon, Danny Peitz); Multiplier (Tyler Gaffalione, Peter Miller); Tom's d'Etat (Mena, Stall); By My Standards (Saez, Calhoun); Silver Dust (Beschizza, Calhoun); and Owendale (Geroux, Cox).

The Stephen Foster has had a strong influence on the Breeders' Cup Classic and Horse of the Year honors. Four horses used victories in the Stephen Foster as part of their résumés in Horse of the Year campaigns: Black Tie Affair (1991), Saint Liam (2005), Curlin (2008) and Gun Runner (2017). In addition, two runners-up were crowned Horse of the Year: Mineshaft (2003) and Wise Dan (2012). Also, Awesome Again (1998) and Blame (2010) completed same-year Foster-Classic doubles. Fort Larned won the Classic in 2012, and won the Foster the following year prior to a fourth-place run in his bid for a second Classic win.

Champion Victory Gallop owns the stakes and track record for 1 1/8 miles of 1:47.28, which was established in 1999.

Free Brisnet past performances will be available at www.churchilldowns.com/handicapping.

The post Tom’s d’Etat To Face Owendale, By My Standards In ‘Win And You’re In’ Stephen Foster appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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