tom's d'etat | Horse Racing Free Tips

Bloodlines: Versatile Tom’s D’Etat Defies Age, Convention With Continued Success

The career profile of Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs on June 27, is so contrary to the norm for racehorses here in the States that it begs for comment. The most obvious exception to the norm in the horse's resume is that he is racing at a very high level while age seven, and he is not a gelding.

So, “Y'zat,” as one of my young friends would say.

The simplest answer is that the $330,000 Keeneland September yearling began bucking the trends of modern racing early on and didn't race at two but then won six of nine starts at three, four, and five. “Various minor ailments or injuries,” according to the connections, kept the good-looking son of Smart Strike from racing more often. More importantly, of course, the horse showed ability, winning his maiden at Saratoga at three, then adding allowance victories at Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, and Saratoga at four.

Beginning in November 2018 as a 5-year-old, Tom's d'Etat has been in steady racing, for him, and has maintained a high level of performance. When he returned to racing at five, Tom's d'Etat added a pair of victories: one was a fifth allowance, this at Churchill in November, and the second was the Tenacious Stakes at the Fair Grounds in December 2018. The Tenacious was the horse's ninth start and first black-type race. He's raced in nothing else since.

The “sheets” offer a further measure of the horse's ability and his steady level of performance over the past 20-odd months. From late 2018 to the present, according to the Thoro-Graph performance figures, Tom's d'Etat has earned a number above a zero, which is a very sharp number for the sheets, only once, when unplaced in his first experience of Grade 1 company in the 2019 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. All the rest are negative 1s and 2s, and the number of horses who run negative numbers on the sheets is a tiny percentage of performers across the country; to run them consistently for more than two years is extraordinary.

The consistency of this horse's performances is a credit to trainer Al Stall, who has presented this horse at the races ready to give his best, and Tom's d'Etat has stayed sound and happy while maintaining the consistency of high-class form that has brought him victory in the G1 Clark, as well as the G2 Fayette and now the Stephen Foster.

Bred in Kentucky by SF Bloodstock, Tom's d'Etat sold for $330,000 as a yearling, when he brought the seventh-highest price among 33 yearlings by the sire. Now the winner of more than $1.6 million, Tom's d'Etat looks like a pretty sound investment, and as a son of Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector), there could be more benefit to come.

The leading sire in the nation in 2007 and 2008, Smart Strike has proven a distinctive son of his great sire. The best of Smart Strike's stock have great speed and the ability to carry it, with both Curlin and Lookin at Lucky winning the Preakness Stakes and Curlin running a close second in the Belmont Stakes. Both were also champions at three, and in addition, Lookin at Lucky was the champion 2-year-old colt of his year.

Of equal importance, Smart Strike has been a very successful sire of stallions, with Horse of the Year and classic sire Curlin leading the list among the sons by Smart Strike. The stallion's additional champion sons English Channel and Lookin at Lucky have also struck gold on the sire lists, and they are significant sires of quality racers who have versatility with surface and distance.

Tom's d'Etat is out of the stakes-winning Julia Tuttle (Giant's Causeway), who is the best racer out of Candy Cane, an Argentine-bred full sister to leading sire Candy Ride (Ride the Rails). The dam of Candy Ride and Candy Cane is Candy Girl (Candy Stripes), a full sister to Argentine 2,000 Guineas winner City West. As a producer, Candy Girl is the dam of three major winners: the unbeaten Candy Ride, as well as the G3 stakes winners Candy Singer and Candy Apple.

This is a family that has shown the ability to race at the highest level at distances up to nine and 10 furlongs, on turf and dirt, in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. With Tom's d'Etat racing sound, there is apparently more to come.

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With Dominant Performance, Midnight Bisou Retains Her Crown In NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

Champion Midnight Bisou further stamped her divisional superiority when she cruised to victory in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs on June 27, a performance that allowed the daughter of Midnight Lute to continue her reign in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top Thoroughbred Poll.

In her first start since running second in the $20 million Saudi Cup on February 29, Midnight Bisou scored an 8 ¼-length triumph in the Fleur de Lis over a field that included 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress. That victory earned the 2019 Eclipse Award heroine for champion older dirt female 25 first-place votes and 390 points this week to retain the top spot in the poll, a position she has held since March 10.

“I can't say enough how thankful we are to (owners) Jeff Bloom, Sol Kumin and the Allens for keeping this brilliant mare in training for this year,” Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who conditions Midnight Bisou, told the Churchill Downs publicity team.

Midnight Bisou was not alone in uncorking an emphatic performance beneath the Twin Spires this past weekend. G M B Racing's Tom's d'Etat drew off to a 4 ¼-length victory over By My Standards in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes to move up to second in the poll with 9 first-place votes and 347 points. The Stephen Foster marked the fourth consecutive victory for Tom's d'Etat, who earned a fees-paid berth into this year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

Grade 1-winner Mucho Gusto (217 points) holds in third with Code of Honor (4 first-place votes, 206 points) sitting fourth ahead of his expected run in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap on July 4. By My Standards (180 points) drops to fifth followed by leading 3-year-old male Tiz the Law (3 first-place votes, 123 points) and Zulu Alpha (119 points). Vekoma (116 points), Maximum Security (3 first-place votes, 90 points), and Improbable (85) round out the top 10.

As evidenced by his status as the lone sophomore runner ranked in the top 10 of the Thoroughbred Poll, Tiz the Law remains the clear leader of the NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.

The Belmont Stakes winner earned 40 first-place votes and 409 points to maintain his lead position. Trained by Barclay Tagg, Tiz the Law is expected to make his next start in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes on August 8 at Saratoga Race Course.

Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A. P. (1 first-place vote, 367 points) remains second followed by graded-stakes winner Authentic (276 points) and Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr Post (223).

King Guillermo (200 points) held in fifth with Grade 1 Acorn Stakes winner Gamine (138) in sixth.

Grade 1-winner Charlatan (105 points) is seventh followed by Max Player (97), Swiss Skydiver (71) and Maxfield (66) to complete the top 10.

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in both the Top 3-Year-Old Poll and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup in November.

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Midnight Bisou in the Classic? Why Not?

The Week in Review, by Bill Finley

There was no word Sunday from the camp of Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute) regarding where their mare would run next and what the long-term goals are for the season. But we know this much: Midnight Bisou is outstanding, her connections took on males once, in the Saudi Cup, and the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic is a lot bigger deal than the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Does that add up to her starting in the Classic? Fans of this sport can only hope that it does.

Midnight Bisou destroyed her competition in last Saturday’s GII Fleur de Lis S. at Churchill Downs, which was no easy assignment. She hadn’t raced since the Feb. 29 Saudi Cup and was facing at least one horse who, on paper, looked like she might beat her. Serengeti Empress (Alternation) is at her very best when able to get loose on the lead and, as expected, that’s the trip she got Saturday. But no filly was going to beat Midnight Bisou on this day. With Mike Smith never asking for her best, the champion won by 8 1/4 lengths.

One race later, perhaps the best older male in training, Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), was also an impressive winner, cruising to a 4 1/4-length win in the GII Stephen Foster S. He completed the mile and an eighth in 1:47.30 and got a 109 Beyer figure. Midnight Bisou ran the same distance in 1:48.99 and her Beyer number was a 93.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the better horse or had the better day. For Midnight Bisou to have run as fast as Tom’s d’Etat, she would have to have won by about 16 1/2 lengths. With the race wrapped up when she made her ground-gobbling move on the far turn, there was no reason for Smith to ask for anything extra in the stretch.

Rather than worrying about who was better, maybe the right thing to do is to concede that both Midnight Bisou and Tom’s d’Etat were very good and that there is no fair way to compare their races.

Midnight Bisou will be stabled at Saratoga. A start in the Aug. 1 GI Personal Ensign S. makes the most sense for her. But the bigger question is where will she run in the Breeders’ Cup? The safe thing to do would be to run in the Distaff. The more adventurous, potentially more rewarding spot is the Classic. It’s worth $7 million. The Distaff goes for $2 million. A filly that wins the Classic becomes an immortal. A filly that wins the Distaff may find it hard to stand out among the other 33 fillies or mares who have won the race. Unless Tiz the Law (Constitution) wins the Triple Crown, there will likely be a handful of Horse of the Year candidates racing on the Breeders’ Cup card. A win by Midnight Bisou in the Classic might just put her over the top, giving her the Horse of the Year title she lost out on in 2019.

Here’s another thing to consider: if Monomoy Girl (Tapizar), Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) and Gamine (Into Mischief) run up to expectations throughout the year, might the Distaff be a tougher assignment than the Classic?

Whenever a top filly faces the boys, it turns a race into an event. It’s good for the sport and something we don’t see nearly enough. Bob Baffert has said there is an outside chance that Gamine goes in a traditional Triple Crown race. Let’s hope that she does. Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) was very impressive winning the GI Just a Game S. Saturday at Belmont. Afterward, trainer Chad Brown said races against males could be on her schedule. That’s terrific news.

Jeff Bloom of Bloom Racing has plenty of time to make up his mind. But he shows every sign of being someone who is not afraid to aim high. He brought Midnight Bisou back when she was five and sent her halfway around the globe to compete against males in the Saudi Cup. My guess is she will run in the Classic. It would be great if I am right.

Good News and Bad News on Canterbury Pick 5

When Canterbury Park announced that it was going to offer a Pick 5 with a 10% takeout at this meet, no one knew what to expect or how horseplayers would react. The hope was that by offering the lowest takeout bet in the sport, Canterbury would lure gamblers that otherwise wouldn’t have paid any attention to their simulcast.

Seven racing days into the meet, there’s little doubt that customers will react to the pricing of bets. With a June 18 card canceled after three races, there have been seven days at the meet in which a Pick 5 was offered and the average handle on the bet is $95,261. That may not seem like a lot, but it is for a B-level track racing only on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays.

It’s not easy comparing that to past years, as the Pick 5 between 2017 and 2019 was a jackpot style bet. In 2016, the total pool was usually less than $10,000.

Canterbury’s experiment has been a success, but it was not a good sign that the three lowest Pick 5 pools of the meet all occurred last week, when the average pool fell to $78,825. That probably means there were a lot of curiosity seekers the first week and some have moved on.

Canterbury may not have the class and quality of Santa Anita, Belmont and Gulfstream, but gamblers need to support this bet. Why shouldn’t it handle $300,000 or $400,000 a day? We spend a lot of time complaining about how high the takeout is. The best way to get the industry to change is to bet more on the lower takeout bets like Canterbury’s Pick 5 and less on the ones that gouge you at 20% or more.

Firenze Fire Back In Winner’s Circle for Breen

Firenze Fire (Poseidon’s Warrior) threw in a dud in the June 6 GI Carter H., finishing fourth. That it was his first start for Kelly Breen after racing for Jason Servis was obviously notable. In March, Servis was indicted and charged with using performance-enhancing drugs on his horses. It was easy to conclude that Firenze Fire couldn’t do as well for Breen as he did for Servis because he would be running without performance-enhancers for his new barn.

The story took another twist Saturday in the GII True North S. at Belmont. The old Firenze Fire was back. The 11-10 favorite, he won by 1 1/2 lengths.

It’s hard to say why he ran so much better in the True North than he did in the Carter. But what is clear is that the majority of horses that had been trained by Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro that have run back have fared better than most expected. That doesn’t mean that Servis and Navarro weren’t doping their horses. But why are these horses running so well for “clean” programs? That’s anyone’s guess.

A Toast to Dean Martini

For no other reason than his name is so clever, it would be fun to see GIII Ohio Derby winner Dean Martini (Cairo Prince) win a few more big races. For now, though, the connections should enjoy a big win and pat themselves on the back for reading the tea leaves when it comes to the 3-year-old races.

Tom Amoss claimed Dean Martini for $50,000 out of a May 17 maiden claimer at Churchill. He came back to finish second in a June 12 allowance at Churchill. Not many trainers would have come back in 16 days, but Amoss realized the $500,000 Ohio Derby purse was there for the taking. Against the level of competition he faced, Dean Martini didn’t even need to improve to win.

In this strangest of years, we went from having too few races for 3-year-olds to having too many. The second tier 3-year-old races all figure to come up weak and may be won by more Dean Martinis of the world.

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Next Stop Saratoga For Tom’s D’Etat, Midnight Bisou After Dominating Performances At Churchill Downs

G M B Racing's brilliant $500,000 Stephen Foster (Grade II) winner Tom's d'Etat along with Bloom Racing, Madaket Stables and Allen Racing's ultra-classy $200,000 Fleur de Lis (GII) hero Midnight Bisou both exited Saturday's races at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., in good shape and will head to Saratoga in the coming days for their eight-week meet, according to their respective connections.

“It was just an unbelievable day on Saturday,” trainer Al Stall Jr. said. “To draw off like that, and almost break the track record, was unreal. He ran a sub 36-second final three-eighths. You don't see many route horses in the country that are able to do that, especially as geared down as he was in the final stages.”

Tom's d'Etat cruised to a 4 ¼-length win in Saturday's Stephen Foster, a Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In Classic Division” race for the $7-million Breeders' Cup Classic (GI), which is scheduled for Nov. 7 at Keeneland. His connections will have all Breeders' Cup pre-entry and entry fees covered for the season-ending championship race.

Just one race prior to Tom's d'Etat, 2019 Eclipse Award-winner Midnight Bisou stylishly returned to the winner's circle with an emphatic 8 ¼-length victory in the Fleur de Lis.

“I can't say enough how thankful we are to Jeff Bloom, Sol Kumin and the Allens for keeping this brilliant mare in training for this year,” said Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who had a busy Sunday morning working 13 horses beneath the Twin Spires.

By winning the Fleur de Lis, Midnight Bisou secured a “Win and You're In” berth to the $2-million Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (GI) on Nov. 7 at Keeneland. The question remains if she will point toward the Distaff or the $7 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

Asmussen and Stall's string of horses are expected to ship from Churchill Downs to Saratoga in the coming days. With the disrupted racing schedule around the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many trainers and jockeys are opting to remain in Kentucky for the summer and ship to Saratoga as necessary. Jockeys Tyler Gaffalione and Ricardo Santana Jr. are among the local riders expected to ride at Saratoga following Keeneland's Summer Meet which spans July 8-12.

Most of the other jockeys in the Churchill Downs riding colony such as Rafael Bejarano, James Graham, Florent Geroux, Brian Hernandez Jr., Chris Landeros, Corey Lanerie and Julien Leparoux plan to ride the summer at Ellis and ship out of town if necessary.

Many local trainers will keep their string of horses in training at Churchill Downs including typical Saratoga-goers D. Wayne Lukas and Dallas Stewart.

Several of the West-Coast trainers currently stabled at Churchill Downs, including Peter Miller and John Sadler, are planning to return to California for the Del Mar meet.

Chad Brown, who was a new addition to the Churchill Downs backstretch this spring, is planning on remaining stabled in Barn 26 throughout the summer and fall, according to his local assistant Whit Beckman. Brown will still be a very strong presence at Saratoga with the majority of his string based in New York.

The Kentucky racing circuit with shift to Ellis Park on Thursday, July 2-Sunday, July 5. Then, Keeneland will run their abbreviated Summer Meet from Wednesday, July 8-Sunday, July 12 before racing continues throughout the month of July and August at Ellis Park.

Racing at Churchill Downs will return on Tuesday, Sept. 1 for the start of Kentucky Derby Week.

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