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Equibase Analysis: Tokyo Gold, Not Bolshoi Ballet, The Horse To Beat In Belmont Derby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby Invitational drew a field of nine horses, six which are stakes winners with five of those entering the race off victories. Leading the field in earnings is Tokyo Gold (FR), winner of the Group 3 Derby Italiano Universita Campus Bio-Med in May, otherwise known as the Italian Derby.

However, likely favoritism among bettors is likely to come from Bolshoi Ballet (IRE), winner of the Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial before a disappointing seventh place finish as the betting favorite in the Group 1 Cazoo Derby (otherwise known as the Epsom Derby) last month.

Du Jour deserves respect as he enters the Belmont Derby off a victory in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes in May, which was his third straight win. Similarly, Sainthood won the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge Stakes at the end of May at Belmont, but on dirt, when the race was transferred to the main track due to the condition of the turf course.

Cellist is another of the recent stakes winners, having captured the Audubon Stakes at the end of May, with Palazzi beaten three-quarters of a length when second in that race. Hard Love won the Woodhaven Stakes on turf in April following five months off before a strong allowance win last month.

Safe Conduct and Hidden Enemy (IRE) round out the field, the former an allowance winner at the start of May before a poor fourth place finish in the Pennine Ridge at the end of the month and the latter a non-threatening fourth in both the American Turf and Audubon.

Tokyo Gold (FR) had a fairly good 2-year-old campaign when winning the second and third starts of his career last summer, the latter of the two in a listed stakes. Finishing off his season, Tokyo Gold (FR) was beaten more than 20 lengths in a group three race but that was run on heavy ground which he did not care for. Returning for his sophomore season in March, Tokyo Gold (FR) finished second in a listed stakes before a fourth of nine finish in the Prix Noailles Stakes. His “light bulb” moment came in the Italian Derby on May 23 when, after racing in the back of the pack for most of the race, Tokyo Gold (FR) took to the middle of the track and accelerated strongly to win by four lengths, eased up at the finish.

The acceleration shown when given his cue in the Italian Derby showed Tokyo Gold (FR) had come of age and the pattern of improving ™ Equibase® Speed Figures this year (97, 105 then 107) suggests Tokyo Gold (FR) is the one to beat in this year's Belmont Derby Invitational, particularly as he is shortening up in distance from one mile and three-eighths to one mile and one-quarter and gets John Velazquez to ride.

Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) was sent to post as the fairly heavy favorite in the Epsom Derby last month on the strength of his six length win one month earlier in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial but checked in seventh. The reason for the poor effort was revealed as soon as the colt returned to be unsaddled as it was discovered he had sustained a cut to his hind leg in the early portions of the race. Prior to the Derby Trial, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) won the Ballysax Stakes rather easily in his 3-year-old, following six months off. Earning a 106 ™ figure in the Ballysax before a new career-best 113 figure in the Derby Trial, it wouldn't be a leap to assume the colt would have improved again in the Epsom Derby if not for the injury and so if he returns to the form shown in those two earlier wins, both at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Belmont Derby, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) could provide us with a thrilling battle with Tokyo Gold (FR) in this race.

Hard Love is an improving colt who has potential to post the minor upset if he continues the pattern of improvement he began in April after returning from five months off. A winner on debut last fall, Hard Love improved to a 102 figure effort when second in the Central Park Stakes, then following the layoff won the Woodhaven Stakes in April with a 99 figure. Flattered when the runner-up won his next start, Hard Love entered an allowance race over this turf course to prepare for the Belmont Derby and although not a stakes race it must be noted he was only one of two horses in the 12 horse field which were 3-year-olds, the rest being older horses. Improving markedly to a 105 figure winning that race, if Hard Love can take a similar step forward by six points into the 111 range he could run as well as either Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) and Tokyo Gold (FR) and as such may have a legitimate shot to win this year's Belmont Derby Invitational.

Another improving colt is Du Jour, who has won three races in a row. The pattern of improvement from 84 to 99 to 103 in terms of his Equibase Speed Figures shows a horse which is getting physically and mentally stronger as the season goes on. Du Jour earned his most recent win in the American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day and prevailed nicely in a field of 14. Now in the hands of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott and retaining the services of jockey Flavien Prat, who has been in the saddle for all three of the colt's wins, Du Jour has to be a horse we consider when wagering on this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Cellist (99), Hidden Enemy (IRE) (93), Palazzi (98), Safe Conduct (99) and Sainthood (101).

Win contenders:
Tokyo Gold (FR)
Bolshoi Ballet (IRE)
Hard Love
Du Jour

Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade 1
Race 9 at Belmont Park
Saturday July 10 – Post Time 5:12 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter on Turf
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Beaten Epsom Derby Favorite Bolshoi Ballet, Santa Barbara Arrive For Belmont Turf Engagements

The Aidan O'Brien-trained pair of Bolshoi Ballet and Santa Barbara arrived in New York by way of Ballydoyle Training Center in Ireland on Sunday evening for their respective starts in the first leg of NYRA's Turf Triple series on Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.

Bolshoi Ballet targets the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby Invitational, while stablemate Santa Barbara will be entered in the Grade 1, $700,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational. Both races are contested at 10 furlongs on the inner turf.

“They're perfect. They've arrived in great shape,” said T.J. Comerford, travelling assistant for O'Brien.

Bolshoi Ballet, who finished seventh as the favorite last out in the Group 1 Epsom Derby, will look to give O'Brien a second triumph in the Belmont Derby after shipping Deauville stateside for a successful engagement in 2016.

The bay son of influential international sire Galileo won both his efforts in 2021 prior to the Epsom Derby.

“He's in good order and looks well. We're very happy with him,” Comerford said.

Owned by Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith and Westerberg, Bolshoi Ballet is out of the Anabaa mare Alta Anna.

Santa Barbara arrives at the Belmont Oaks off a runner-up effort to Thundering Nights in the Group 1 Pretty Polly on June 27 at The Curragh. Since a first out maiden victory over the County Kildare green in September, the daughter of 2012 Epsom Derby winner Camelot has made her three following efforts against Group 1 company.

Out of the Danehill mare Senta's Dream, Santa Barbara is a half-sister to Breeders' Cup winners Iridessa [2019 Filly and Mare Turf] and Order of Australia [2020 Mile].

“She's a filly that we think a lot of,” Comerford said. “She ran in some tough races this year after winning her maiden race. She's taken everything in stride.”

Turf Triple contenders Tokyo Gold, Cirona and Nazuna arrived at Belmont on Sunday morning.

Trained by Shinya Kobayashi, Tokyo Gold will start in the Belmont Derby, while the Christophe Ferland-trained Cirona and Roger Varian-conditioned Nazuna will point to the Belmont Oaks.

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The Weekly Wrap: Classics, Classics Everywhere

It seems harsh, when the British and Irish Classics have so far have been split two apiece between Jim Bolger and Aidan O'Brien, to suggest that this season is all about Bolger. But, let's face it, it is.

Plenty has been written about Poetic Flare (Ire) (Dawn Approach {Ire}) and Mac Swiney (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}) and the fact that both sides of their families are very much ingrained in the Bolger breeding and training academy. What is equally admirable, especially in the case of Mac Swiney, is the fact that they are being rigorously campaigned. The trainer has already confirmed that the Irish 2000 Guineas winner is now on course for Epsom in an attempt to emulate both his sire and grandsire in the race that many people still consider to be the greatest of them all. Surprisingly, the master breeder Jim Bolger is not one of them.

Following Poetic Flare's triumph at Newmarket, Bolger declared that he believed the 2000 Guineas to be the most important race. That said, he surely will not mind if Mac Swiney delivers a second Derby victory for him, 13 years after New Approach became the first of six Derby winners for Galileo.

It is worth rewatching Galileo's own Derby triumph 20 years ago to be reminded how the relatively small horse with the massive stride skated round Tattenham Corner and scooted clear in the straight.

In an interview with TDN earlier this year, Aidan O'Brien reflected on the racing days of Europe's multiple champion sire, who gave him his first Derby victory, recalling how those connected with Galileo at Coolmore had a high opinion of him even as a yearling.

“He didn't walk, he prowled, ” O'Brien said. “His walking stride was so long and there was so much power from his front and back, so I suppose the lads had him as a king before he came here.”

He has more than justified that belief, both on the racecourse and at stud, and Galileo has in no small way played a significant part in the training careers of both Bolger and his protege O'Brien.

The latter has eight of the remaining Derby entries, Bolger has just one, Mac Swiney, the horse who could become the first Derby winner to be inbred to Galileo, through Bolger's two champion juveniles New Approach and Teofilo (Ire). Furthermore, as breeder, Bolger has another roll of the dice via the Mark Johnston-trained Gear Up (Ire), a son of Teofilo.

For all his success, which includes wins in the G2 Beresford S., G1 Vertem Futurity and now the Irish 2000 Guineas, the mud-loving Mac Swiney has never started favourite and remains perhaps under-rated. Following the coldest, wettest English May in living memory, it would be folly to overlook the neat, tenacious colt at Epsom on the first Saturday of June. Destiny calls.

Gold For Japan In Rome

Chantilly-based Satoshi Kobayashi has had seven winners in France so far this year but it was in Italy on Sunday that he recorded the biggest success of his career to date. The trainer sent the Teruya Yoshida homebred Tokyo Gold (Fr) (Kendargent {Fr}) to Capannelle for an easy four-length victory in 138th running of the Derby Italiano, which was downgraded to Group 2 status in 2009.

Tokyo Gold is the first Classic winner for his sire Kendargent, and his third group winner this year after the likeable Skalleti (Fr) and his full-brother Skazino (Fr). The latter claimed his second group victory of the season when winning the G2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at ParisLongchamp on Monday.

Now 18, Kendargent is having a fruitful season in France and is numerically the most successful sire with 38 winners as well as the Nicolas Caullery-trained Kennella (Fr), who was third in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches. The Haras de Colleville stallion's reputation is also being enhanced by his son and stablemate Goken (Fr), who was leading first-season sire and leading sire of 2-year-olds in France last year, with 15 winners from just 33 runners, including the group winners Go Athletico (Fr) and Livachope (Fr).

Yoshida, owner of Japan's famous Shadai Farm, has a notably international outlook when it comes to selecting broodmares, and his support extends to to a number of leading French sires, including Le Havre (Ire) who is the sire of the latest foal for Arc winner Dandedream (Ger) (Lomitas {GB}). The 13-year-old mare foaled a filly by the Sumbe stallion last Wednesday in Japan.

Yoshida also bought Le Havre's Classic-winning daughters La Cressonniere (Fr) and Avenir Certain (Fr). The latter has been represented by two winners this season in her two daughters by Deep Impact (Jpn), the G2 Hanshin Himba S winner Dea Ailes (Jpn), and 3-year-old Honneur (Jpn), who are sadly her only offspring as she died after being covered by Deep Impact in 2018.

La Cressonniere visited Shalaa (Ire) and Golden Horn (GB) in Europe and is now in Japan, where she had a colt last year by Epiphaneia (Jpn) before being covered by his fellow Shadai stallion Lord Kanaloa (Jpn).

Carvalho Has Classic Double In Sight

It has been a successful couple of days for the French-born, German-based trainer Jean-Pierre Carvalho, who won Monday's G2 Mehl-Mulhens-Rennen (German 2000 Guineas) with Mythico (Ger), another promising 3-year-old for the recently deceased Adlerflug (Ger).

On Sunday, Carvalho, a former private trainer at Gestut Schlenderhan, saddled Sea Of Sands (Ger) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) to win the G3 Derby Trial at Hoppegarten for owner/breeder Gestut Hony-Hof, an operation we will be covering in greater detail in Wednesday's TDN.

Sea Of Sands represents a family which has had an enormous impact on the German Classics over the last two decades. His grandam Salve Regina (Ger) (Monsun Ger) won the G1 Preis der Diana for Hony-Hof's owner Manfred Hellwig and was second in the G1 Deutsches Derby in 2002, two years after her full-brother Samum (Ger) had won the Derby at Hamburg. In 2005, another full-brother Schiaparelli (Ger) followed suit, and three years later Samum's son Kamsin (Ger) won the Derby en route to becoming German champion 3-year-old. The run continued with the 2014 winner, Sea The Moon (Ger), a son of Sea The Stars and the unraced Sanwa (Ger), another full-sibling to Salve Regina. Now a successful sire in his own right at Lanwades Stud, Sea The Moon is thus very similarly bred to Sea Of Sands, who is now co-favourite for this year's Deutsches Derby on July 4.

Second-Crop Sires To Watch

For the current second-crop sires, what happens this year on the racecourse is arguably so much more important than the results from their first 2-year-old runners.

Mehmas (Ire), who made a frankly staggering start to his stud career last year with a record 56 winners, looks to be making that important transition with his 3-year-olds and is also compiling an international profile. The Tally-Ho Stud resident has so far had only four runners in America but three of them have won, including the treble Grade III victrix and appropriately named Going Global (Ire), who has now won all four of her American starts.

The G3 One Thousand Guineas Trial winner Keeper Of Time (Ire) has recently been sold to race in America and will surely add to her good record across the Atlantic, as has been the case for Tetragonal (Ire), a first-time-out winner for Hugo Palmer last year who won for Richard Baltas on Saturday at Santa Anita on the same card as Going Global.

One second-crop European sire we've heard much less about is Protectionist (Ger), but that may soon change. For a start, he is the only one in the table who boasts a strike rate of 11% group winners to runners. The final son of Monsun (Ger) at stud in Germany, Protectionist has large shoes to fill but, from only 18 starters this year, he has been represented by two group winners. The first, Lambo (Ger), won the G3 Bavarian Classic on May 1, beating subsequent G2 Derby Trial winner Sea Of Sands, before finishing third in Monday's G2 Prix Hocquart at ParisLongchamp.

Protectionist also looks to have a genuine contender for the G1 Preis der Diana on Aug. 1 in Amazing Grace (Ger), winner of Sunday's G2 Diana Trial for owner/breeder Dr Christoph Berglar, who also bred her sire. His son Liban, a winner at Cologne in April, also holds a Derby entry.

The winner of the G1 Melbourne Cup and G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin, Protectionist, in common with most German sires, has covered relatively small books and had 44 foals in his first crop, followed by 36 in 2019. However, he has the advantage of standing at Gestut Rottgen, which has supported him with members of its own powerful broodmare band, including Wellenspiel (Ger) (Sternkoenig {Ger}), the dam of consecutive Deutsches Derby winners Windstoss (Ger) (Shirocco {Ger}) and Weltstar (Ger) (Soldier Hollow {GB}). Furthermore, Protectionist's owners Australian Bloodstock have not only supported him with mares but have also bought his yearlings in Germany, and Lambo now races in their colours.

Two of Protectionist's offspring, a filly from his first and second crops respectively, have already been exported to Australia and it is fair to expect that more will follow.

In the meantime, Protectionist is very much a stallion to follow with interest in Europe.

Hello Royal Ascot

It seems as if almost every British race meeting has at least one Amo Racing runner these days, and Kia Joorabchian's operation looks set to be well represented at Royal Ascot.

The latest to have advertised strong claims for a trip to the Berkshire course in mid-June was Monday's impressive Wolverhampton winner Hello You (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), who trounced her rivals by six and a half lengths in one of the most impressive juvenile performances of the season to date. Trained by Ralph Beckett, she was a €350,000 purchase by Robson Aguiar at last year's Arqana Select Sale from her breeder Serge Boucheron.

Hello You's win on debut brought up 18 for the season for Amo Racing, which equalled their tally of winners for the whole of 2020. This followed victories on Saturday for Raadobarg (Ire) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), who completed a treble at Haydock, and Beautiful Sunshine (GB) (Ardad {Ire}), who struck for the second time at Sandown on Thursday and is likely to return there this week for the listed National S.

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