Todd Pletcher | Horse Racing Free Tips

T. D. Thornton’s Belmont Predictions, Sponsored by Fasig-Tipton

This week's TDN Triple Crown feature examines the GI Belmont S. entrants listed in “likeliest winner” order.

1) Mo Donegal (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
O-Donegal Racing & Repole Stable. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 yrl '20 KEESEP.
You could argue that Mo Donegal lost the GI Kentucky Derby at the post draw after getting stuck with the dreaded rail gate. But his fifth-place effort, beaten 5 3/4 lengths in a stretch finish that featured the 1-2-3 horses all running full-tilt to the wire, is actually quite a bit better than it appears on paper. This $250,000 KEESEP son of Uncle Mo was too patiently handled by Irad Ortiz, Jr., who didn't ask this athletic colt for his best run until 2 1/2 furlongs out, and Mo then had to float 12 wide off the turn to find clear passage. But he still uncorked with his characteristic acceleration inside the eighth pole, and that type of late-race torque has been evident throughout Mo's career. This colt simply keeps gaining ground in deep stretch, even when the final furlongs are quick, and his company lines are far more robust than any of his Belmont S. foes. Don't be tempted to stamp him as strictly an off-the-tailgate type, because Mo is agile and nimble enough to take up the running from a sweet stalking spot in an eight-horse field where he's not as likely to meet up with the trip trouble that he often encounters.

2) We the People (c, Constitution–Letchworth, by Tiznow)
O-Winstar Farm, LLC, Bobby Flay, CMNWLTH, & Siena Farm, LLC.
B-Henley Farms Inc (KY). T-R Brisset. Sales History: $110k wnlg '19 KEENOV, $220k yrl '20 KEESEP, $230k 2yo FTFMAR.
We the People possesses both a very high cruising gear and a reputation for being difficult to handle. His brief past performance block features a pair of open-length wins at Oaklawn and a blowout, 10 1/4-length, tour-de-force romp in the GII Peter Pan S. four weeks ago (103 Beyer Speed Figure). But sandwiched in between was a hot-and-bothered effort in the weak GI Arkansas Derby in which this Constitution colt couldn't make the lead, then got hooked wide around both turns, beating only two horses. Which We the People will show up as the morning-line fave for the third leg of the Triple Crown? Sure, he's won with authority over Belmont's main track. But that was a sealed, post-rain surface rated “good,” and the field contained only one horse who had ever won a stakes (a minor one at that). Still, the raw power of that victory will be enough to sway pari-mutuel supporters to this colt's side. We the People was always in control in the Peter Pan, and it's hard to shake the visual of him turning for home under a hand ride from Flavien Prat while everyone else in his widening wake was desperately whipping and driving. He also had a nice spurt of extra acceleration in upper stretch-the kind of move where Prat was probably just gauging what was under the hood for future reference.

3) Rich Strike (c, Keen Ice–Gold Strike, by Smart Strike)
O-RED TR-Racing, LLC. B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Eric Reed.
When a horse wins a race at 80-1 odds, you can usually point to evidence that the favorites didn't fire, the pace blew up, or a number of logical contenders ran into trip trouble. None of those things happened in the Derby. Sonny Leon sliced and diced his way to a clear inside path through the far turn, and Rich Strike did the rest, taking aim with purpose and reeling in two favorites who weren't quitting. Is the effort replicable? This connections of this former $30,000 maiden-claiming son of Keen Ice defied convention and skipped the GI Preakness S. with the aim of having a tighter fighter at 12 furlongs, a distance trainer Eric Reed believes is within this colt's scope. His 101 Beyer in Louisville represents a 17-point jump off his best career effort, and Rich Strike is going to have to come up with a similar or better fig if he is to be draped in a blanket of white carnations.

Rich Strike poses for every photo before Saturday's Belmont Stakes. | Sarah Andrew

But you have to wonder if he's going to be tactically forced out of his sweet spot, because dropping far behind the field against this crew is likely going to leave him too much work to do.

Then again, this is a colt who wasn't too far off the action going a one-turn a mile at Churchill at age two (a 17 1/4-length upset), so maybe he's a touch more versatile than critics give him credit for. A bigger concern might be Leon's inexperience riding over Belmont's vast, sweeping main-track configuration, which has been known to stymie riders unfamiliar with its 1 1/2-miles circumference. Leon is named to ride in only one race (on the grass) at Belmont on Friday, then will have what will seem like an interminably long wait on Saturday (7 1/2 hours) between his only main-track mounts in the opener and in the Belmont S. itself.

4) Barber Road (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image)
O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY).
T-John Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wnlg '19 KEENOV.
Despite having to rally from last and getting parked in the 14 path turning for home, this Race Day gray ($15,000 KEENOV) put in a fairly decent sustained run over the final three furlongs of the Derby. Barber Road gets a jockey change to Joel Rosario for the Belmont, and will race without blinkers for the first time since his career debut at Colonial Downs last August. He's winless since Nov. 10, but has amassed a bankroll north of $650,000 by chipping away with minor awards in graded stakes. Longer distances certainly appear within the scope of his pedigree. His paternal grandsire is Tapit, the sire of four Belmont S. winners, and damsire Southern Image won two Grade I routes at Triple Crown distances in 2004 (the Santa Anita H. and the Pimlico Special). But the big question for Barber Road isn't staying power-it's whether he's fast enough. His best Beyer tops out at 94, seven points below the par for this race.

5) Nest (f, Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy). O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, & Michael House.
B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl '20 KEESEP.
Nest's family tree is replete with distance-centric influences. Her sire, Curlin, lost the 2007 Belmont by a head, barely coming up short behind the gallant filly Rags to Riches (who was trained by Nest's trainer, Todd Pletcher). Nest's damsire, A.P. Indy, won the '92 Belmont. This filly is also a full sister to Idol, last year's winner of the Santa Anita H. She was most recently a grinding second in the GI Kentucky Oaks, incrementally gaining on the winner, and before that, she popped for an 8 1/4-length victory in the GI Ashland S. in April. That score was notable for a prolonged, 4 1/2-furlong bid over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration in which Nest drove past the front four leaders with authority midway on the far turn. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount for the first time, as his brother, Irad, sticks with Nest's uncoupled stablemate, Mo Donegal.

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The Week in Review: Beyond Derby Aspirations, Pletcher Duo Blooms

Getting a 3-year-old to peak precisely on the first Saturday of May is an over-arching goal in our sport. But even for the very upper crust of colts, a brush with GI Kentucky Derby aspirations ends up being nothing more than an early diversion on a much longer development arc.

It's always intriguing to watch how one-time Derby hopefuls progress over months and even years, and two of them from Todd Pletcher's barn signaled Saturday that they might be A-level factors in the second half of this season.

Within the span of 15 minutes June 4, 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready) and Dynamic One (Union Rags) each posted one-length victories, respectively, in the GII Pennine Ridge S. at Belmont Park and in the Listed Blame S. at Churchill Downs.

Emmanuel had been brought up to the cusp of this year's Derby, but after running a no-impact third in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. over a drying-out track that he might not have cared for, Pletcher said the $350,000 KEESEP colt would be freshened for nearly two months and then resurface on grass in the Pennine Ridge against fellow sophomores.

The switch yielded immediate-gratification results, and Emmanuel could now be targeting a bigger lawn party, the GI Belmont Derby Invitational S. July 9.

Debuting last Dec. 11, Emmanuel won his first two dirt starts at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs by a combined 10 1/4 lengths while on the front end at every call. In the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., this robust pacemaker was favored until the final flash, then got knocked off his game by failing to attain the lead and enduring a tour-of-the-track trip that hooked him four and five wide on the turns.

After that, Pletcher was on the fence between running back in the GI Florida Derby or shipping for the Blue Grass. Since he had fellow 'Rising Star' Charge It (Tapit) primed for the Gulfstream spot, Emmanuel had to take his show on the road to Keeneland.

Charge It ended up running second in a Florida Derby that featured a three-way pace meltdown, while Emmanuel was no match for blunt-force closer Zandon (Upstart), who would end up going off as the second fave and running third in the Derby.

Pletcher, who also trained Emmanuel's sire in the early 2000s, said as far back as January that Emmanuel was “a bigger, scopier colt” than most of More Than Ready's progeny. He likened Emmanuel to his trainee Verrazano, “a big, physical, strong imposing colt” who won the 2013 GI Haskell Invitational S.

Emmanuel dispatched with his Pennine Ridge foes like an in-control 19-10 favorite who relished being on the lead, practically walking through the first six of nine furlongs, but igniting to life when roused for run in both upper and deep stretch. Like we saw in his first two dirt starts, Emmanuel was never fully extended.

And while his 88 Beyer Speed Figure appears at first glance to be on the soft side (matching his Blue Grass number on dirt), it's also an artifact of the dawdling internal fractions, and offset by a final furlong timed in an eye-catching :11.89 for the “about” distance.

Better late than never…

Dynamic One has taken a bit longer to figure things out. Now four, he ran the worst of four Pletcher entrants in the 2021 Derby, getting pinballed at the break and checking hard the first time past the sixteenth pole. He was never in it to win it, turning for home last at the quarter pole and gaining only one position by passing an eased-up entrant.

After an 0-for-3 start in the winter of 2020-21, Pletcher hadn't sugarcoated that he expected better out of this $725,000 KEESEP colt. But he also explained how Dynamic One was hindered by shorter distances and outer gate draws before breaking his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths in start number four when stretched out to nine furlongs. In a bid to accrue last-chance Derby qualifying points, Dynamic One earned respect with a wide-on-both bends effort in the GII Wood Memorial S. at 15-1 odds, losing the race only on the final head bob.

Despite a top-side pedigree anchored by the 2012 GI Belmont S. winner and a female family that resonates with Phipps-homebred stayers, Dynamic One was in way over his head when taking the seemingly obligatory shot in the Derby. He rebounded by winning the Listed Curlin S. at Saratoga last summer, ran seventh in the GI Runhappy Travers S., then was shelved until this spring, when he ran third in the GIII Challenger S. at Tampa and second in the GIII Ben Ali S. at Keeneland.

But Dynamic One's trip-troubled go in the Ben Ali was far better than it appeared on paper. Committed to the rail, he was rated back “on hold” for a good portion of his backstretch run, then got shuffled to last to regroup. He blitzed through a wall of traffic off the turn with his head cocked out toward the stands, and was getting to the tiring repeat winner, Scalding (Nyquist), in the final stages.

On Saturday in the nine-furlong Blame, bettors let Dynamic One drift up to 6-1 behind second-favored Scalding and another Pletcher entrant, the 11-10 chalk Americanrevolution (Constitution). A five-way speed scrimmage broke out on the first turn, then percolated down the backstretch, playing right into Dynamic One's off-pace tactics.

Cued to quicken three-eighths out, he methodically picked off speed-sapped leaders, and being spun out to the six path turning for home was no worry given the head of steam Dynamic One had built over the course of his prolonged, quarter-mile bid.

Despite his name, this is not the type of colt who will wow you with one spectacular flourish. But slow and steady still wins a few races here in speed-centric North America, and when five horses lined up at the eighth pole, all with a chance to win it, it was clear that Dynamic One had built the best momentum.

Off a career-best 99 Beyer, Dynamic One is a candidate for either the GII Stephen Foster S. at Churchill July 2 or the GII Suburban S. at Belmont July 9.

That latter option could set up both Emmanuel and Dynamic One for important 10-furlong tries on the same afternoon in two different races.

Not exactly the 1 1/4-mile test those Pletcher stablemates were initially aimed for at earlier points in their careers–but not bad consolation prizes, either.

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More Than Ready’s Emmanuel Takes Turf Debut in Pennine Ridge

'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready), at one point considered a leading Triple Crown contender, looks to have found a new home on the lawn after leading at all calls Saturday to justify 19-10 odds in Belmont Park's nine-furlong GII Pennine Ridge S.

A 6 3/4-length debut winner at Gulfstream going a mile in December followed by an easy Tampa optional claiming tally in January, the WinStar Farm and Siena Farm representative was fourth in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 5 and third after showing the way in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Apr. 9 behind subsequent GI Kentucky Derby third finisher Zandon (Upstart).

Having gotten acquainted with the lawn thanks to a pair of local breezes leading up to this, the $350,000 Keeneland September yearling found no company on the front end here as he cruised through splits of :25.19, :51.72 and 1:15.91. Pilot Irad Ortiz, Jr. seemed to play a bit of possum as he allowed his rivals to stack up behind him entering the stretch, but when he got Emmanuel to switch leads the bay found another gear to slam the door and stride away in command despite drifting slightly. Chad Brown-trained Napoleonic War (War Front) was second, while Shug McCaughey pupil Limited Liability (Kitten's Joy) rounded out the trifecta.

“He was the speed of the race,” said Ortiz, who had never ridden the winner before. “He broke well and put me in a good position. I just kept it together and stayed out of his way. He was ready. He's by More Than Ready, so he had a great pedigree to run on turf. I expected that he would like it and he did like it.”

Winning conditioner Todd Pletcher, who won the inaugural running of this event in 2014 as well as last year's renewal with another WinStar Farm co-owned making his turf debut, said, “He's bred for the turf, but he's always trained really well on the dirt. He's had some good dirt races, but we kind of wanted to experiment with this. We worked him twice on the turf. My biggest concern was two weeks ago we worked him and it had a little give to it like it does today, and I didn't think he was as good as he was the following work when it was firm. It looked like we had a pace advantage and took advantage of that and he ran well… He quickened when Irad asked him to, but I do believe he'll be even better once we get him a little firmer ground.”

The GI Caesars Belmont Derby going 10 panels July 9 is the next logical spot.

“That's what we're thinking,” Pletcher said. “We'll see how he comes out. We haven't ruled out going back to the dirt at some point. All our options are open.”

Saturday, Belmont Park
PENNINE RIDGE S.-GII, $200,000, Belmont, 6-4, 3yo, 1 1/8mT, 1:51.11, fm.
1–EMMANUEL, 118, c, 3, by More Than Ready
                1st Dam: Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun
                2nd Dam: Trensa, by Giant's Causeway
                3rd Dam: Serape, by Fappiano
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. 'TDN RISING STAR'. ($350,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC and Siena Farm LLC; B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher; J-Irad Ortiz, Jr.. $110,000. Lifetime Record: GISP, 5-3-0-1, $272,100. Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Napoleonic War, 118, c, 3, War Front–Naples Parade, by Street Cry (Ire). 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O-Peter M. Brant; B-White Birch Farm, Inc. (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. $40,000.
3–Limited Liability, 118, c, 3, Kitten's Joy–Hold Harmless, by Blame. O/B-Stuart S. Janney, III LLC (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. $24,000.
Margins: 1, HF, 1. Odds: 1.90, 3.60, 5.70.
Also Ran: Unanimous Consent (GB), Daunt, Elizar (Fr). Scratched: Gilded Age.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

Pedigree Notes:

Emmanuel is one of 51 Northern Hemisphere graded/group winners (106 overall) for the ever-present international powerhouse More Than Ready. He is bred on a version of the cross responsible for U.S. highest-level scorers Uni (GB) and Hit the Road, and myriad Group 1 performers in Australasia. Hard Spun is the broodmare sire of 13 graded winners, including recent European MG1SW Alcohol Free (Ire) (No Nay Never), Asian MG1SW Danon Smash (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) and champion juvenile Good Magic.
Emmanuel was produced by a half-sister to globetrotting MG1SW Hawkbill (Kitten's Joy) and 2017 GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity winner Free Drop Billy (Union Rags), who has had several strong breezers from his first crop this 2-year-old sales season.
Emmanuel's 2-year-old half-brother by Kitten's joy was a $125,000 KEESEP yearling turned €272,715 Goffs Dubai Breeze Up Sale graduate in March. Hard Cloth produced a full-sister to Emmanuel last year and a Munnings filly Apr. 8.

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Top Contenders Put in Final Belmont Breezes

Several major contenders for next week's $1.5-million GI Belmont S. completed their final serious preparations Saturday morning. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher seeks his fourth Belmont trophy, and sent out his pair of representatives, GII Wood Memorial S. winner Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks runner-up Nest (Curlin), to an in-company half in :49.90 (68/129) over the Belmont training track. Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Jose Ortiz, respectively, piloted the pair, who Pletcher caught breaking off in :24.80 and galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 and seven furlongs in 1:27.20.

“I thought it was good. I liked the way they finished and galloped out,” Pletcher said. “Those horses seem to be in good form. This was more of a maintenance work. They had a strong work last week with a big, long gallop out. This week we wanted just a maintenance type of work, which they were able to execute properly.”

Mo Donegal exits a fast-finishing fifth in the GI Kentucky Derby May 7, while GI Central Bank Ashland S. heroine Nest will look to become Pletcher's second filly to win this race, following in the hoofsteps of 2010 heroine Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy).

Also appearing on the Belmont tab was WinStar Farm, CMNWLTH and Siena Farm's 'TDN Rising Star' We the People (Constitution), who covered a solo half-mile on the main track in :47.59 (9/66, out in 1:00.40). Two-for-two at Oaklawn to kick off his career, the $230,000 FTFMAR acquisition bounced back from a seventh-place run in the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 2 to air by 10 1/4 lengths in the local GIII Peter Pan S. May 14.

“It was a little fast,” said trainer Rodolphe Brisset. “The track with the moisture in it will carry you. He couldn't have done it any easier. He was just galloping. He repeated what we've been seeing the whole time here. It looked like he really enjoyed it to me. We've got to have a good week now.”

Belmont longshot Skippylongstocking (Exaggerator), fifth in the GI Preakness S. May 21, breezed a five-eighths over Big Sandy in 1:02.41 (13/17).

“We're coming back in three weeks, so we weren't looking for much. We wanted a steady, long and easy breeze and that's what we got,” trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. said.

GI Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike (Keen Ice) put in a strong two-mile gallop Saturday.

“He was great,” said conditioner Eric Reed. “The rider said he was moving good and liked it. When he came down the stretch, I was loving the way he was moving today. He can get into his stride and not get distracted here. We went two miles today and tomorrow we'll probably back it up a little bit.”

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