Equibase Analysis: Fore Left Could Upset Tiz The Law In Belmont Stakes

In the scheme of things, the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes being run in June doesn't seem that out of the normal. However, in the year of the pandemic the fact the race comes before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and will be run at the distance of one mile and one-eighth really makes a point things are out of whack this year. Just the same, a strong field of 10 lines up for the race which earns the top four finishers significant points on the Road to the Derby.

Tiz the Law leads the field in career earnings ($945,300) and accomplishments, having won four of five career races including the Grade 1 Florida Derby easily by four and one-quarter lengths when last seen. Sole Volante also has won four races, including the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and a strong win 10 days ago which was the ticket to ship from Florida to New York for this race.

Another horse proven in the top races for three-year-olds early this year is Modernist, winner of one of the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February. However, he had no excuse when third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent start. Likewise, Max Player won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at the distance of this year's Belmont, but hasn't been seen in the five and one-half months since then. Fore Left shipped half-way across the world for his three year old debut and came away with a strong win on the lead throughout in the Group 3 United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas in February.

Dr Post punched his ticket into the race with a victory in the Unbridled Stakes in late April. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who also saddles Farmington Road, the runner-up in the Oaklawn Stakes in April before a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May. Tap It to Win won impressively at Belmont just 16 days ago and appears to have a lot of talent.

Trainer Steve Asmussen, who recently became the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, saddles a pair. One of those is Pneumatic, who contested the pace for most of the race before tiring a bit and ending up third in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes last month. The other is Jungle Runner, who won the one turn Clever Trevor Stakes in November but who has been beaten a total of sixty-seven lengths in four starts since then.

Although Tiz the Law is the one to beat on paper, I'm going to take a shot with Fore Left to post the upset in the Belmont Stakes. The colt won the first two starts of his career last May and June, both sprints including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park, then after two months off he wasn't disgraced a bit when ending up third and a neck behind the runner-up in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. Following a poor effort in his two-turn debut in the American Pharoah Stakes last September, the southern California prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the colt returned to sprinting and won a minor stakes before trying an all-weather track and trying turf, finishing third then 10th in those races. Rested two months and put back on the dirt while shipping to Dubai for the United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas, Fore Left led from the start in a 16 horse field and held off all challengers early while drawing off late with some authority.

That effort showed he had matured nicely over the winter as he earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. The runner-up in that race returned to win a stakes the following month which flattered the form of Fore Left somewhat. Rested since then, Fore Left resumed training in April and shipped to Belmont the first week of June. Since then, he's put in two very strong morning drills over a track he already proved a liking for when winning last spring. Although Tap It to Win earned his last victory at Belmont leading from start to finish, I believe Fore Left will be sent for the lead by jockey Jose Ortiz and if allowed to get into a high cruising speed as he did in the 2000 Guineas, he could post the upset win in this field. He still has to beat Tiz the Law, with 117 and 112 figures earned in his last two starts, but considering this will be only his second start as a three year old, Fore Left may be able to do just that.

There's little question Tiz the Law is the horse to beat based on his body of work and particularly his two races this year. Rested two months after a poor third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, Tiz the Law was a powerful winner of the Holy Bull Stakes with a career-best and field high 117 Figure which remains the highest stakes winning figure by any thee year old in North America even four months later. Although he earned a lower 112 figure winning the Florida Derby, Tiz the Law did not need to run any faster after he opened up by a length in the stretch and jockey Manual Franco noted there were no challengers coming.

When a horse has earned two consecutive figures which are both higher than any other horse in the field, it's known as a “double advantage” and these horses win a high percentage of the time. Considering how well Tiz the Law ran off a similar layoff in the Holy Bull, and the colt has excellent tactical speed which is likely to have him in third or fourth position early and in range of the leaders at the critical stage of the race, Tiz the Law is a legitimate favorite and the most probable to win the race. The only proviso is how strong a horse like Fore Left may be if allowed an easy lead from the start as horses can get very courageous when allowed to run that way.

Sole Volante was my top choice in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on this page in February off his third place effort in his first dirt start prior to that. Not only had trainer Patrick Biancone already proved prescient with the move as Ete Indien had run very well a couple of weeks earlier, but Sole Volante had tremendous dam side breeding for running well in stakes on dirt. The other foal of the dam, Explode, was multiple stakes placed at distances from nine to 10 furlongs. Sole Volante rewarded those who bet him in the Sam F. Davis with a win at 5 to 1 odds and earned a career best dirt figure of 108. One month later in the Tampa Bay Derby, Sole Volante rallied from 11th of 12 early but couldn't catch the winner and ended up second. Taking three months off, Sole Volante was very impressive with a big burst of speed in the stretch to win 10 days ago. Even though that was not a stakes race, the 107 figure was stakes quality. Sole Volante is likely to be near the back of the pack early but if there is any sort of pace battle early or if the early fractions are faster than average, Sole Volante could be passing the field late for his second graded stakes win of the year.

Honorable mention goes to Tap It to Win and Dr Post as both are on the verge of breakthrough performances. Tap It to Win won a sprint in May in his three year old debut with a 99 figure, then improved to a 108 figure effort 16 days ago. That win came in a one-turn route at Belmont not much different from the Belmont Stakes. Because of the level of the race, there's no way to know the class of the horses he beat but as a son of Tapit and with the ground saving rail Tap It to Win may take the needed step forward to compete with these. Dr Post shows a similar pattern as he stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth off a sprint in his most recent start and won well. He improved from a 92 figure to 101 so he appears to be a bit behind Tap It to Win but three year olds still have potential to take a big leap forward from race to race, particularly lightly raced ones like Dr Post.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Farmington Road (100), Jungle Runner (85), Max Player (103), Modernist (94) and Pneumatic (98).

Win Contenders:
Fore Left
Tiz the Law
Sole Volante

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 20 – Post Time 5:42 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 2:45 – 6 PM E.T.

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Belmont Stakes Q&A with John Imbriale

ELMONT, NY – After winning a contest in the New York Daily News back in 1979, John Imbriale got his first taste of the announcer’s booth and press office at the New York Racing Association, and has been part of fabric at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga ever since.

A jack of all trades, Imbriale served as a backup to the legendary racecaller Tom Durkin beginning in 1990 and has held several behind-the-scenes roles with NYRA TV throughout the years as well.

Appointed to the position of head announcer in late January, the affable native of Queens, New York will be behind the binoculars as they line up for Saturday’s 152nd renewal of the GI Belmont Stakes.

“November of ’79 I started, and it’s been a good run and a good ride,” Imbriale said. “I got this opportunity and I hope to make the best of it.”

This year’s Belmont, now the first leg of the reshuffled Triple Crown, has been shortened to 1 1/8 miles and will be contested spectator-free due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“Everybody knows it’s under different circumstances,” Imbriale said before adding with a laugh, “I come along, they change the distance, which order the Triple Crown is run in, no fans, etc. But you have to deal with the hand that you’re dealt. It’s still obviously very exciting and thrilling to be able do it on Saturday.”

TDN’s Senior Editor Steve Sherack caught up with Johnny I for a Q&A session as the big day approaches.

Q: New York sports is back and beautiful Belmont Park is back! Those were your words as you welcomed back not just racing in New York, but all of New York Sports, when Belmont re-opened for business June 3. This has just been such a surreal time for everyone throughout the pandemic, but how good did it feel to kick things back up and return to some sort of normalcy? And on a more personal level, getting your start as the No. 1 announcer at Belmont?

JI: I really thought about that race for quite a while. It was a unique scenario, even perhaps more unique than a Belmont S. Let’s hope that we don’t have to go through that again. Hopefully, [my call] came across O.K. There were some butterflies in the belly for the first race out. I’ll tell you that.

Q: That first race back, and your stretch call, was on almost every major New York news channel that evening. Other than the Belmont S., you don’t really see racing in that kind of spotlight in this media outlet anymore.

JI: It got a lot of coverage, which was really neat. I didn’t really think of it that way at first where our sport was the first one back in New York after all this time. Sometimes you get so involved in what you’re doing, that you kind of forget about the outside world. If the race went off at 1:18 p.m., I was a very happy camper at 1:20 p.m.

Q: Growing up in Queens and spending your college days at St. John’s, I take it you spent a lot of time at Belmont and Aqueduct? How did you catch the racing bug?

JI: Actually, my brother and some of my uncles were bigger racing fans than I was, and I would go occasionally. If they were going to go, I would tag along. It was clearly the Affirmed-Alydar match up in ’78 that got me the bug. And Affirmed and Steve Cauthen, I thought that was just a tremendous story. Affirmed was my first love as far as horse racing was concerned and I’ve been a fan ever since.

Q: Winning a NY Daily News contest has led to a lifelong career at NYRA and you celebrated your 40th anniversary with the organization in November. What do you remember about the contest and how it all came about?

JI: You had to make a tape–you could go to the track if you wanted to-but I actually made one in my brother’s living room, just did a recreation of a race. I sent that in, and from that, they narrowed it down to three people who would do a live call. Mine was July 25th of ’79, and up until that point, that was probably the most nervous I’ve ever been doing anything. [Track announcer] Marshall Cassidy was up there with me during the call.

The gig–you didn’t get anything as far as announcing was concerned-but you got a job in the press office, and as it turned out, they asked me to come on board. That was the end of July, and I started working for NYRA on Nov. 5 of ’79 in the press office doing notes, backstretch stuff, helping out doing the first media guide and then went from there.

Q: You’ve had plenty of different roles throughout the years at NYRA, including working alongside Harvey Pack on Inside Racing, as well as several behind-the-scenes responsibilities with NYRA TV. Looking back at all your time at NYRA, can you reflect a little bit? What are some of the things that stick out?

JI: It’s funny. During the 40 years, I’ve been a media specialist, a coordinator, an assistant announcer and now an announcer, a producer, a director, on-air talent, a host, a co-host, etc.

Really one of the first things that I did, or got involved in, has stayed with me for a long time. The weekly Frank Wright show that aired on Saturdays on Channel 9. You got to see the late double on Saturdays at Belmont, Aqueduct and Saratoga. I got to be in the production meetings as a liaison with Frank Wright, Charlsie Cantey, Marshall Cassidy, and learned how they put a show together. Those were really fun times as a young kid just getting my feet wet at the track, but also being involved in the only racing show that there was at the time.

Doing the stuff with Harvey, whether it be Inside Racing, you learn so much from watching different people without even having to ask questions. Whether it be him or Tom [Durkin]. The person who spent the most time with me regarding announcing was Marshall [Cassidy]. I would go next door at Aqueduct and do a call into a tape recorder and go back into the booth and he would watch the replay with me while listening to my call and he really helped me out a lot.

And listen, you don’t have to be a brain surgeon to pick up on some good things if you spent 24 years listening to Tom Durkin, either. One of the most important things he ever told me was that I shouldn’t listen to him. And what he meant was, he wanted me to develop my own style. Tom had a lot of good catch phrases that he used, and he didn’t think that’s what I should do. And he was right.

Larry [Collmus] was terrific for the five years he was with us, too, and now I have my chance to do my thing.

Q: That leads into my next question. Any announcers out there that you admire, past or present? Sounds like Tom would be at the top of the list?

JI: I firmly believe Tom is the greatest announcer that there has ever been. And it goes beyond some of his legendary calls, whether it be Rachel [Alexandra] at Saratoga or some of the near misses in the Belmont. It was really a daily freshness that he brought to his craft that I think is unparalleled.

The announcer who had the best voice was Dave Johnson. He just had a cadence–he was right there with where his voice was for a track announcer.

Q: Each announcer kind of does things a little differently getting ready for a day at the races, whether it be a colored program, playing out the race first off pp’s, etc. How much prep work goes into calling a card for you?

JI: I do color the program for the silks, and make notes for blinkers and caps. I make as many notes as I can. I’m not one to handicap though. Listen, Tap It to Win is supposed to go to the lead in the Belmont. You do have a little bit of anticipation in certain big races. But when it comes to the everyday stuff, I’m going to leave the ‘who’s going to be on the lead’ to the handicappers. One of the main reasons I say that, it’s that great phrase, ‘You never know what’s going to happen when they open those gates.’ You can think the four horse is going to the lead and he comes out a little slow and now you’ve got to adjust the call. I take the approach, ‘See the horses, call the horses,’ wherever they may come out.

Q: You touched on Affirmed and Alydar’s epic rivalry before and how much it influenced you. That has to be your favorite Belmont, right?

JI: No question, it’s still the greatest race I’ve ever seen in person and I was in the stands for that. To think that they went at it like that after the Derby and Preakness with a Triple Crown on the line–I don’t know if we’ll ever see a match up like that again.

Q: This year’s Belmont is obviously very different, but Tiz the Law is certainly a worthy headliner. Early thoughts on the race?

JI: With everything being so different this year and with horses being so lightly raced these days, we don’t know how good Tiz the Law really is yet. Maybe he’s a superstar. That’s kind of the mystery that makes it fun. That’s always the fun part about the 3-year-olds. You just don’t know when that horse is going to appear that the public is really going to embrace. We’ve got a major race to be run Saturday, so let’s see. Maybe Tiz the Law blows them out of the water. Or maybe we just have a good race and that becomes the story and we go from there.

Q: The gate won’t be lined up in front of the stands, and the building will be empty, but what kind of emotions will you be feeling as they head to the gate at 5:42 p.m. ET Saturday?

JI: Hopefully, controlled excitement. I’m following a tremendous group of broadcasters. It’s certainly a thrill and an honor.

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Belmont S. to Anchor Two-Day Pick 5 Wager

A Pick 5 wager spanning Friday and Saturday and culminating with the running of the GI Belmont S., will be offered by the New York Racing Association. The sequence will be a $1 base minimum and will feature a low takeout of 15% and a mandatory payout.

The Pick 5 will kick off with Friday’s seventh race at Belmont, a seven-furlong optional-claiming event on the turf for older fillies and mares, with post time at 4:32 p.m. ET. The race has drawn a field of 11, with one main-track-only entrant. It continues with race nine, the $80,000 Sir Cat S. for 3-year-olds at six furlongs on the grass before picking up on Saturday with the GI Longines Acorn S. (race eight, 4:15 p.m. ET).

The GI Jaipur Invitational S., a ‘Win and You’re In’ race for the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, features as the penultimate leg of the sequence. The two-day Pick 5 concludes with the Belmont, the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown to be contested over the one-turn mile and an eighth. Tiz the Law (Constitution) figures a warm favorite against nine other sophomores.

Advance wagering for the Belmont program will be available Friday.

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Tiz The Law Draws Post Eight, Installed As 6-5 Morning Line Favorite For Belmont Stakes

Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law drew post eight of ten for Saturday's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, the first race of the 2020 Triple Crown season due to rescheduling caused by the global coronavirus pandemic. To be held over a shortened distance of nine furlongs, the Belmont will be run without spectators or owners in attendance.

Trained by Barclay Tagg and ridden by Manny Franco, Tiz the Law was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Belmont. The Sackatoga Stable-owned colt will be vying to take his connections on another whirlwind trip through the Triple Crown series, echoing their ride with Funny Cide in 2003.

Second choice at odds of 9-2 is Sole Volante, recent allowance winner at Gulfstream Park who will be running off just 10 days rest on Saturday. Trained by Patrick Biancone, the late-running son of Karakontie won the G3 Sam Davis at Tampa earlier this year, and will leave from post position two under jockey Luca Panici.

Unbridled Stakes winner Dr Post comes in as the 5-1 third choice for trainer Todd Pletcher, and will leave the gate from stall nine. Champion jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. will partner the Quality Road colt.

Tap It To Win drew the inside post and will be fourth choice at 6-1 on the morning line. Trained by Mark Casse, the recent allowance winner will get the services of jockey John Velazquez as he takes a major step up in class.

The entire field for the 2020 Belmont Stakes is as follows:

  1. Tap It To Win (Velazquez, Casse) 6-1
  2. Sole Volante (Panici, Biancone) 9-2
  3. Max Player (Rosario, Rice) 15-1
  4. Modernist (Alvarado, Mott) 15-1
  5. Farmington Road (Castellano, Pletcher) 15-1
  6. Fore Left (J. Ortiz, O'Neill) 30-1
  7. Jungle Runner (Gutierrez, Asmussen) 50-1
  8. Tiz the Law (Franco, Tagg) 9-5
  9. Dr Post (I. Ortiz, Pletcher) 5-1
  10. Pneumatic (Santana, Asmussen) 8-1

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