Tag: Tiz The Law

Equibase Analysis: Ny Traffic Top Chance To Upset Derby Favorite Tiz The Law

The long awaited 146th running of the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve drew 17 horses, and Tiz the Law, for a total of 18. The reason Tiz the Law is separated from the rest is his body of work this spring and summer has been nothing short of phenomenal. Winning all four races he has run in 2020, Tiz the Law is the only horse in the field to have won at the Derby distance of one mile and one-quarter. That win came in the Travers Stakes last month in as workmanlike a fashion as I've ever seen. The one-eyed and aptly named Finnick the Fierce is the only one of the other 17 that has ever finished in front of Tiz the Law. That occurred in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November when Finnick the Fierce finished second and Tiz the Law finished third. Since then, Finnick the Fierce has run well on occasion without winning, with the best of those efforts coming when third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May.

Of the rest, Tiz the Law has already beaten Max Player, Sole Volante and South Bend. Max Player won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February but has been beaten by an average of six lengths in two tries vs Tiz the Law since then. Sole Volante was sixth behind Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes in June but he did win the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February and is one of just a few in the field with breeding to run the 10 furlong trip successfully. South Bend was a late entrant into this race after some withdrawals earlier in the week. His last win came last October at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense Stakes but he's winless in nine races since then. Authentic and Ny Traffic are likely to offer bettors who want to find potential value just that. Authentic just won the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes by a nose over Ny Traffic. Prior to that, Honor A.P. beat Authentic in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, before Honor A.P. was himself beaten by Thousand Words in the Shared Belief Stakes last month at Del Mar. Attachment Rate is another horse who has been doing okay at the level particularly when second behind Art Collector (who was not entered due to a slight injury this week) in the Ellis Park Derby last month. Money Moves has never run in a stakes race but he's a very lightly raced colt coming into the race off a career-best effort and has the breeding to run this far. Necker Island finished five lengths behind Attachment Rate in the Ellis Park Derby, the same position he finished in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby prior to that. Major Fed was the runner-up in the Indiana Derby, the same position he finished in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February. King Guillermo is another who ran well earlier this year in the division, first when posting the 49 to 1 upset in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby then when second in the Arkansas Derby in May. Storm the Court, who posted the 45 to 1 upset last fall in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, moves back to dirt after a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 La Jolla Stakes and may be able be competitive in this situation. Enforceable, Mr. Big News and Winning Impression round out the field, the first two entering off a non-threatening fourth and sixth place finishes, respectively, in the Blue Grass Stakes and the latter off a seventh place effort in the Ellis Park Derby.

It is very difficult to envision Tiz the Law not winning this year's Kentucky Derby. In normal years when the Derby is run in May, there may be a number of horses who are on patterns of improvement enough to give the likely favorite a run for his money. That is not the case this year, as Tiz the Law has run consistently fast in all four starts since making his first start as a three year old in February. Starting with the Holy Bull Stakes, Tiz the Law earned a 117  Equibase Speed Figure which is unheard of for a three year old in the winter. Nearly two months later the colt put in another display to win the Florida Derby with a 112 figure, then nearly two months later he ran similarly well with a 113 figure as he dominated the field by nearly four lengths in the Belmont Stakes. Running the mile and one-quarter distance of the Derby last month in the Travers Stakes, Tiz the Law was even more impressive, making a move on the turn to go from third to first by with half-length margin, then asserting himself to win by five and one-half lengths as he was eased up in the final yards having done the job and still saving something for this race. That effort earned a 115 figure. This is an incredibly gifted equine athlete who wants to win and can back up the desire with immense talent. He's also seasoned, having beaten 29 horses in his four starts this year. Likely to be stalking likely early leader Authentic and a couple of others going into the far turn, when jockey Manny Franco asks Tiz the Law for his usual burst of speed, it is unlikely any horse will have any response worthy of challenging the colt in the last eighth of a mile.

That being said, there are horses who can run well, some very well, who appear to have a better probability to finish second than may be indicated by high odds. In the unlikely event Tiz the Law falters, one of these horses can post the upset win. Ny Traffic is the first of that group. The first time he stretched out to two-turns, in January and in his fifth career start, Ny Traffic won impressively by six and one-half lengths. Following that the colt finished third in the Risen Star Stakes, second in the Louisiana Derby, second in the Matt Winn Stakes and second in the Haskell Stakes. His Haskell effort yielded a career-best 109  Figure and showed he might enjoy the mile and one-quarter distance in the Derby even more than the mile and one-eighth distance at which he was gaining ground on winner Authentic with every stride at the end. In the Haskell, Authentic was drawn inside Ny Traffic, allowing that one to get the lead from the start. In the Derby, Authentic is drawn on the far outside, and there are more than a few horse who may try to deny him the lead. If jockey Paco Lopez can put Ny Traffic into a stalking position while not going too wide into the first turn, this colt has a big shot to be second or third at high odds.

Money Moves is the most lightly raced horse in this year's Derby field, having run just three times. However, he may have the quality to compete favorably in this field. After winning the first two starts of his career in February and March, both around one turn, Money Moves stretched out to a mile and one-eighth at the end of July and faced older and more mature horses. Nevertheless, he showed ability and maturity, rallying to miss winning by a neck with a 109 figure. Housed in the top barn of Todd Pletcher and by Candy Ride, who produced multiple stakes winner Gun Runner, Money Moves is another who figures to be in the mid-pack early. Any continued improvement off that stakes quality effort and figure in his last race makes Money Moves another horse that can be in the top three at the least.

Sole Volante is one of just a few in this field who should not find the 10 furlongs of the Derby beyond his reach. We already know Tiz the Law has handled the trip so there are no concerns there. Before a very poor sixth place finish behind Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes, Sole Volante was first or second in three straight stakes on dirt, including a powerful effort in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in which he rallied from 15 lengths back to win by two and one-half lengths at the end. That effort earned a 108 figure as good as the 109 Ny Traffic and Authentic earned in the Haskell and those two should be much lower odds than Sole Volante. I am willing to ignore his poor recent Belmont Stakes effort, particularly since Sole Volante has put in three superb workouts – two at one mile and the last a sizzling five furlong drill on grass. The reason I think Sole Volante will have the stamina to successful contest the classic distance of 10 furlongs is because his dam (Light Blow), not only is by Kingmambo, who could run all day, but because she produced a horse that lost by a neck in a stakes race the only time he ran a mile and one quarter. On the other hand, Sole Volante likes to come from far back, so navigating past 15 to 17 other runners in the last quarter mile may be difficult.

Next, there are three more just outside the bubble of what I consider the most likely horse to win (Tiz the Law) and a trio who can finish second – Honor A. P., Thousand Words and Authentic. The reason mostly is because they've taken turns beating each other, with none of the three asserting himself in the process. Combined with posts which could be problematic given that they all have tactical speed that means they will have to be as lucky as they are good to run well. Honor A. P. has never been worse than second in five races, but he doesn't have the quick burst like Tiz the Law does and will need horses to come back to him in the late stages to succeed. Beaten by Authentic in the San Felipe Stakes in March with a 101 figure, Honor A. P. turned the tables on Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby with a 105 figure effort then was unable to mount the same rally last month in the Shared Belief Stakes, won by Thousand Words, although Honor A.P. did improve slightly to a 106 figure. Thousand Words had won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February with a career-best 107 figure, then regressed badly when fourth in the San Felipe. Even ignoring his poor effort over a sloppy track in the Oaklawn Stakes in April, he was no match for Uncle Chuck in the Los Alamitos Derby (92 figure). Rebounding to winning form in the Shared Belief with a 107 figure, that was a race in which Thousand Words led from start to finish, an unlikely scenario in the Derby with need-the-lead type Authentic also in the race. Authentic earned a career-best 109 figure in the Haskell, but that was earned leading from start to finish and it appears likely the colt will have to expend a good deal of energy getting past 17 other horses before the first turn to get the lead he likes. That early effort could be problematic in the last eighth of a mile when stalkers like Tiz the Law, Money Moves and Ny Traffic start to pick up steam, as does deep closer Sole Volante.

The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures is Attachment Rate (99), Enforceable (97), Finnick the Fierce (99), King Guillermo (110), Mr. Big News (96), Major Fed (96), Max Player (105), Necker Island (91), South Bend (103), Storm the Court (106) and Winning Impression (92).

Win contender:
Tiz The Law

Horses which can finish second and third, having a chance to win if the Tiz the Law does not fire, in preference order:
Ny Traffic
Money Moves
Sole Volante
Honor A. P.
Thousand Words
Authentic

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 4, at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve – Grade 1
Race 14 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, September 5 – Post Time 7:01 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
For Three Year Olds
Purse: $3 Million
TV: NBC 2:30 – 7:30 PM ET

The post Equibase Analysis: Ny Traffic Top Chance To Upset Derby Favorite Tiz The Law appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Kentucky Derby Notes: Tiz The Law, Tagg Hoping Track Dries Out For Friday Gallop

Sackatoga Stable's Tiz the Law jogged twice around the Churchill Downs main track Thursday morning with trainer Barclay Tagg alongside on a pony over a track turned sloppy by heavy rain that began before 4 o'clock (all times Eastern) and continued through 8 a.m.

The rain, that has been the main story the past two days during training hours, is forecast to be a nonfactor the rest of the week. Friday , for the 146th running of the $1.25 Longines Kentucky Oaks (GI) and five other graded stakes is forecast to be sunny with a high in the upper 70s and with Kentucky Derby Day expected to be sunny with the high in the low 80s.

ATTACHMENT RATE – Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister's Ellis Park Derby runner-up Attachment Rate had a light 1 ½ mile gallop in the slop Thursday morning at Churchill Downs. Attachment Rate will be trainer Dale Romans' 11th starter in the Kentucky Derby.

“We've run really well for a span of three years when Paddy O'Prado (third, 2010), Shackleford (fourth, 2011) and Dullahan (third, 2012) almost won the whole thing,” Romans said. “It's just an honor to be involved in the Derby and this horse keeps showing he's not reached his best, yet.”

AUTHENTIC/THOUSAND WORDS – Stablemates Authentic and Thousand Words each put in maintenance gallops Thursday morning, with the latter also schooling in the new 20-horse starting gate, as rain once again soaked the Louisville area.

“It's hard to tell because they both haven't had a chance to train on a dry track here,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “But they're all doing well.”

Both colts are aiming to give their Hall of Fame conditioner what would be a record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby victory Saturday. In addition to potentially giving Baffert a new milestone, Authentic and Thousand Words also are each vying to provide the powerful Spendthrift Farm operation its first triumph in the 10-furlong classic.

Spendthrift Farm co-owns Thousand Words along with Albaugh Family Stables and acquired a majority interest in Authentic in June to join forces with Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, and My Racehorse.

Even before Spendthrift bought into Authentic, they were already rooting for the colt since they stand his sire, Into Mischief, who topped the general sire list in 2019.

“(Authentic's) last work was very impressive, great gallop out. We couldn't be more excited about his chances and standing Into Mischief makes it double the fun if he were to pull this off,” said Ned Toffey, general manager of Spendthrift Farm.

Where Authentic was already an established runner when Spendthrift joined the team, B. Wayne Hughes' operation got in on the ground floor with Thousand Words, having purchased the son of Pioneerof the Nile with the Albaugh family for $1 million out of the 2018 Keeneland September Yearling sale. After going off form earlier this year, Thousand Words righted the ship when he captured the Shared Belief Stakes on Aug. 1.

“His win in the Shared Belief seems to have to turned him into a different horse,” Toffey said. “He's a little bit more like we saw as a 2-year-old. He's worked well, he's much more aggressive in his works. Really excited about his chances.”

ENFORCEABLE – John Oxley's Enforceable emerged from the Casse Racing shedrow early Thursday, taking to the track around 5:50 a.m. to jog and gallop under assistant trainer David Carroll as heavy rain hit the area.

Trainer Mark Casse is driving up from his home in Ocala, Fla. and is expected to arrive in Louisville Thursday afternoon.

FINNICK THE FIERCE – With co-owner and trainer Rey Hernandez in the saddle, Finnick the Fierce skipped over the slop during his gallop as rain drenched the Churchill Downs track for a second straight morning.

The gelded son of Dialed In had made three prior starts beneath the Twin Spires with his best outing being a runner-up effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) last November where he finished ahead of Grade I winner and Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz the Law.

“He always showed a lot of talent, he was very smart,” said Hernandez who owns Finnick the Fierce along with Arnaldo Monge. “When we ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club, it was pretty much the eventual top 3-year-olds in that race. And when you run second over the same track you run the Derby, it gives you a good feeling.”

HONOR A. P. – C R K Stable's Honor A. P. came out on the track at 7:30 a.m. during the special training time allotted to Oaks and Derby horses and galloped 1 ½ miles with exercise rider Javier Hernandez. The Honor Code colt also visited the paddock as part of his morning training routine.

“Everything's good,” trainer John Shirreffs said as he held a playful Honor A.P. for his morning bath.

KING GUILLERMO – Victoria's Ranch's King Guillermo had an unscheduled walk day Thursday and a decision to run in the Kentucky Derby is expected late Thursday afternoon.

MAJOR FED – Lloyd Madison Farm's Major Fed galloped a mile prior to schooling in the Kentucky Derby starting gate for trainer Greg Foley.

“Fred Schwartz, Jim Bakke and I have worked 24 years to watch one of our horses break from the Derby gate,” co-owner Tim Sweeney said. “The Foleys have worked three generations for this. To have one of our homebreds get us in the race is very satisfying. We are a longshot but we'll take a shot.”

MAX PLAYER – George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbred Corp.'s Max Player, had a strong 1 ½-mile gallop over the sloppy track at 5:50 a.m. under regular exercise rider Juan Vargas.

“The horse is coming into the race in great shape,” said Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who is seeking his first Kentucky Derby victory after collecting two seconds and two thirds in 20 previous tries. “He goes over the racetrack very well. I think his energy level is great. Obviously, excited about Saturday.”

MONEY MOVES – The Todd Pletcher-trained Money Moves wore the D. Wayne Lukas saddle towel for a second straight morning as he galloped over the soggy Churchill Downs track during the special 7:30 a.m. training period for Oaks and Derby contenders.

Lukas is overseeing the preparations for Money Moves on behalf of his protégé Pletcher, who will remain in Saratoga for the conclusion of that meet this weekend. Owned by Robert LaPenta and Bortolazzo Stable, Money Moves will be making just his fourth career start when he breaks from post seven in the Kentucky Derby field Saturday.

“I need to analyze it a little closer but always in the Derby, everyone is trying to get position going into the first turn. Even though they have a new starting gate, that won't change,” Pletcher said. “He's a horse who has some tactical speed so I think we'll try and establish position going into the first turn and work out the best trip from there.”

MR. BIG NEWS – Allied Racing Stables' Mr. Big News galloped about 1 ½ miles under exercise rider Simon Camacho Thursday at 7:30 a.m.

“We're taking a shot but I've never won a race I haven't entered,” owner Chester Thomas said.

NECKER ISLAND – With rain pouring down, Necker Island jogged two miles for the second day in a row under Hillary Hartman.

“With the rain and all, we decided to jog another day,” trainer Chris Hartman said. “He has done enough already.”

Necker Island, who will be ridden by Miguel Mena, is owned by the partnership of Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scheer and Will Harbut Racing.

NY TRAFFIC – On his second morning at Churchill Downs, John Fanelli, Cash is King, Paul Braverman and Team Hanley's Ny Traffic jogged once around over a wet Churchill Downs track at 7:30 and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. reported the horse was “doing well.”

The Cross Traffic colt has been steadily improving since adding blinkers following a third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) Feb. 15. He has had three straight second-place finishes since that Fair Grounds race, including a narrow loss to Authentic in the Haskell Invitational (GI) July 18 in his most recent start.

“Blinkers seem to have really taken him to a new aspect,” Joseph said. “He's more steady in his races, more focused. He's been on the improve. All we need is one more improvement from him and he's going to be a horse that is going to make a name for himself Saturday.”

SOLE VOLANTE – Because of the second morning of a wet track, Reeves Thoroughbreds and Andie Biancone's Sole Volante continued his routine of jogging alongside the pony Thursday morning during the 7:30 a.m. special training time with his co-owner in the saddle. Andie Biancone, who also has been handling the training duties for her father Patrick Biancone, said the gelding continues to do well leading into Saturday's race.

SOUTH BEND – Sporting his new Kentucky Derby saddle towel, South Bend took to the track and galloped about 1 ¼ miles during the special 7:30 a.m. training session for Oaks and Derby horses and also stood in the new 20-horse gate.

South Bend was deemed a 50-1 longshot on the morning line, but his Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott knows a thing or two about pulling a Kentucky Derby upset. The Mott-trained Country House was elevated to the victory in last year's classic at odds of 65-1 after Maximum Security crossed the wire first but was disqualified because of interference.

South Bend is winless in eight starts this year and was most recently fourth in the Travers Stakes (GI).

“You know last year was very special and we had two very legitimate horses (with Country House and Tacitus),” said Kenny McCarthy, assistant to trainer Bill Mott. “This horse, he's a very consistent horse if you look at all his races and he tries hard every time. His Travers race was certainly not a bad race. He obviously needs to move forward off of that race but he seems to like this track here. We've seen over the years that some horses look like a cinch coming in but they couldn't get it done.”

STORM THE COURT – Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson and Dan Hudock's Storm the Court galloped 1 ¼ miles under Thomas Dubaele, assistant to trainer Peter Eurton.

Following training, Storm the Court had a paddock schooling session that earned a thumbs up from Eurton.

In the Derby, Storm the Court will be ridden for the first time by Julien Leparoux. Flavien Prat, who has ridden Storm the Court in eight of his nine starts including a victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (GI), opted not to travel to Churchill Downs where he won last year's Derby on Country House.

“When Flavien told us he wasn't going, we knew Julien was one of the best riders around (who didn't have a Derby mount) and we didn't go any further,” Eurton said.

TIZ THE LAW – Sackatoga Stable's morning line Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz the Law jogged two miles with Heather Smullen aboard with trainer Barclay Tagg accompanying the two on his pony.

“I wish I could have done more with him, but couldn't because we've had two days of hard rain,” Tagg said. “He'll gallop tomorrow and he'll school in the paddock today during the fourth race.”

Tiz the Law's only career defeat to date came in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last year at Churchill when he was third. When asked if he was a different horse this year, Tagg said: “He's the same horse. He's more experienced, of course. I don't think it was a lack of experience that got him beat last year. It was an off track and he came out a bit slow. The pace cooked him. He's been pretty nice ever since.”

Smullen, who has served as Tiz the Law's regular work rider, was impressed with Tiz the Law from the get-go.

“It was his 2-year-old year and he did everything so easily,” Smullen said. “Other horses are working hard and he goes along at a nice easy pace.”

WINNING IMPRESSION – West Point Thoroughbreds and Pearl Racing's Winning Impression jogged a mile Thursday at 5:30 a.m. for trainer Dallas Stewart.

“We're all good,” Stewart succinctly said.

The post Kentucky Derby Notes: Tiz The Law, Tagg Hoping Track Dries Out For Friday Gallop appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

TVG Handicappers Weigh In With Top Three Kentucky Derby Picks

TVG, America's horse racing network and leading ADW provider, will be offering special promotions and featuring expert selections from their team of analysts in advance of Saturday's 146th running of the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, the award-winning network will be live on site at Del Mar for the long holiday weekend for four graded stakes races including the Del Mar Debutante (GI) and Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (GI).

Throughout the week, TVG will be airing analysis and features on the Kentucky Derby contenders including a special Kentucky Derby Profile Show which can be viewed here. Select races from Churchill Downs will be available on TVG2.

TVG Expert 1st 2nd 3rd
Simon Bray #17 Tiz the Law #6 King Guillermo #15 Ny Traffic
Matt Carothers #17 Tiz the Law #7 Money Moves #16 Honor A. P.
Todd Schrupp #17 Tiz the Law #16 Honor A.P. #13 Attachment Rate
Ken Rudulph #3 Enforceable #16 Honor A.P. #11 Necker Island
Christina Blacker #16 Honor A.P. #17 Tiz The Law #13 Attachment Rate
Mike Joyce #17 Tiz The Law #7 Money Moves #16 Honor A.P.

TVG will be offering a Money Back Special promotion throughout the week and will be giving money back for 2nd and 3rd-place finishes on win bets on multiple races each day.

New customers can take advantage of a $200 Risk Free Bet on their first win wager. For further details, go to https://www.tvg.com/promos.

TVG's Todd Schrupp, Mike Joyce, Christina Blacker and Joaquin Jamie will be reporting live from Del Mar with Simon Bray contributing to the broadcast remotely. The coverage will include exclusive interviews and analysis as Del Mar concludes its summer meet on Labor Day. There are four graded stakes scheduled including the Del Mar Debutante (GI) and Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (GI), two premier races for juveniles.

Labor Day will also mark opening day of the popular Runhappy Meet at Kentucky Downs. Caton Bredar will be live trackside on Monday. The track's boutique six-day turf meet offers $2 million per day in purses and will host the Runhappy Turf Sprint (GIII) which is part of the Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” Challenge Series and earns the winner a spot in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (GI) on November 7 at Keeneland.

Fans of international racing can tune in to TVG on Saturday morning as international superstar Enable (GB) competes in the September Stakes (GIII)  at Kempton in preparation for her fourth appearance in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (GI) in October. She won the Arc in 2017 and 2018 and was second last year. TVG's international expert Scott Hazelton will be covering the race from Los Angeles. Post time for the September Stakes is approximately 9:35 a.m. ET/6:35 a.m. PT.

In addition to Del Mar and Kentucky Downs, TVG will also be broadcasting racing from Gulfstream Park, Monmouth Park, Golden Gate and more all weekend.

The post TVG Handicappers Weigh In With Top Three Kentucky Derby Picks appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The TDN Derby Rankings for September 2

Here are the final TDN GI Kentucky Derby rankings after an entertaining, intriguing, and unusually long buildup to the first Saturday in September. The field is listed in “likeliest winner” order.

The Top 10…

1) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-6-0-1, $2,015,300.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20, 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 28, 1st GI Champagne S., 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 1, 3rd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 30. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 372.

Tiz the Law is a Kentucky Derby standout no matter how you parse his credentials. He’s 6-for-7 lifetime and undefeated in four starts at age three. He’s thrice run Beyer Speed Figures at or above the elite-level 100 mark. He’s already won at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs and that victory was a resounding trouncing of the GI Runhappy Travers S. field at Saratoga. Most importantly, his progression into a mature, confident, aggressor who carries himself with swagger is evident in the visually impressive nature of his races. This $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt makes his own breaks and controls the tempo of his races from an imposing stalking position, and he’s never been in a serious stretch fight beyond the eighth pole while pasting the competition by open lengths (never fewer than three). Detractors will point to the fact that his only career loss came over the Churchill Downs surface, but that argument is a reach. Tiz created his own trouble in that third-place try in a sea of slop last November in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., and he’s long since advanced in his development into a colt who relishes throttling his competition. Post 17 shouldn’t be a problem. Tiz is an alert breaker who knows how to seize prime early positioning and he’ll have a long run through the home straight to settle just behind the anticipated speed. The only reason not to bet on him will be the prohibitive price. Tiz the Law has had an amazingly long run of luck, maintaining his form for well over a year for an old-school trainer and ownership group that underscores fun and doing right by their horses, so he’s an easy favorite to root for.

2) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-3-0, $382,200.
Last Start: 2nd Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby June 6, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140.

This $850,000 FTSAUG Honor Code ridgling figures to be a far better contender in the Derby than he appeared in his not-fully-cranked second at 1-5 odds when shortening up to 1 1/16 miles in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. He has a long stride, a keen mind and an unruffled demeanor, and the projected (more up-tempo) pace dynamic of the Derby figures to suit both his pedigree and target-oriented running style. For a launching-off point for what Honor A.P. might be capable of on Saturday, reference his 102-Beyer GI Santa Anita Derby score on June 6, in which he methodically wore down the pacemakers and fluidly covered ground like he wanted more of it. Honor A.P. does take a while to torque up to his main attacking gear, but he’s also been described by trainer John Shirreffs as being light on his feet, which is an attribute that is usually a necessity in any 18-horse scrum.

3) KING GUILLERMO (c, Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
O-Victoria’s Ranch. B-Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments (KY). T-Juan Avila. Sales History: $90,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $340,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, May 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, 3rd Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 90.

King Guillermo’s 127-day layoff quest to win the Derby doesn’t strike me as outlandish as it might seem to some traditionalists. This colt was intentionally kept out of hard training in the early part of summer after running back-to-back impressive races when winning the GII Tampa Bay Derby and grinding out a gutsy second in the faster division of the split GI Arkansas Derby. Having plenty of down time was always the prescribed plan for this Uncle Mo bay ($90,000 RNA KEESEP, $150,000 OBSAPR), who runs best when fresh. The filly Regret won the 1915 Derby off a 259-day break, and Sir Barton won the 1919 Derby off a 238-day rest. Since 1929, the longest winning layoff has been 42 days, equaled by Needles in 1956 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. What is a little concerning is that trainer Juan Carlos Avila has been nursing a tepid 1-for-25 record over the past two months. And jockey Samy Camacho is booked on no other Derby day mounts at Churchill, which means that the rookie Derby rider will be sitting in the jocks’ room for hours before his big-race debut without the benefit of being able to ride over the track and (more importantly) focus on another race as a distraction from the pressure. Still, having said all of that, King Guillermo’s 20-1 morning line represents considerable value if you can actually snag that price.

4) THOUSAND WORDS (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) O-Albaugh Family Stables & Spendthrift Farm. B-Hardacre Farm (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-0, $327,000.
Last Start: 1st Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 7, 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 83.

In a Derby prep season extended to 10 months because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Thousand Words is the epitome of a comebacking contender. He was the No.1 Derby prospect on this list from December through early March, then slid off the grid for three starts between March and July (in two of those races he just looked uninterested, and in the sloppy Oaklawn S. he clearly didn’t like taking wet kickback). But this million-dollar KEESEP colt’s 104-Beyer tally in the Shared Belief S. over Honor A.P. stamped him as a resurgent player for a trainer known to produce Derby winners (even when they’re not favorites). Thousand Words doesn’t resonate as a “Wow!” horse, but one talent that is decidedly in his favor is his oft-demonstrated ability to fight through tenacious early pace battles while still being able to repulse serious stretch challenges. Not too many horses in this year’s Derby field have demonstrated that skill, and it will suit this Pioneerof the Nile colt well if he can handle the stretch to 10 furlongs.

5) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
10-2-2-2, $367,150.
Last Start: 4th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 18; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, Oct. 5, 2nd GII Risen Star S. Div. 1, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 43.

Enforceable is the long-shot play of the Derby, and a must inclusion for all exotics. Admittedly, it’s tough to make a case for him based on results on paper alone. This $775,000 KEESEP RNA was fifth in the GII Louisiana Derby, then ran fourth in the July 11 GII Toyota Blue Grass S., his lone summer prep for Louisville. But he was wide on both turns in the Blue Grass behind dominant one-two finishers who both came back to win stakes in impressive fashion, and this Mark Casse trainee has now had six weeks of conditioning over the Churchill surface. Knowing that he’s coming in fresh with run-all-day bloodlines (by Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare), dismiss Enforceable at your own peril. He is going to fly under the radar betting wise, and he is highly likely to be flying by some of the more stamina-challenged pacemakers late in the lane on Saturday.

6) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding & Golconda Stables. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-1-0, $1,011,200.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18.
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7; 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 4, 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, June 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 200.

Considering that more preps were added to the calendar to qualify for the Derby, it’s a bit odd that only three entrants in this 18-horse field–Tiz the Law, Thousand Words and Authentic–are sporting victories in their last races. This $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay has high-level pace-pressing ability, and his outermost gate draw makes it a near-cinch that he’ll be sent for speed to attain prominent positioning. But it’s not guaranteed that Authentic is going to abide by the strategic wishes of new jockey John Velazquez and trainer Bob Baffert. He’s had adverse issues leaving the starting stalls in three of his five races and his stretch antics by now are well-documented, underscored by his caving-then-saving final eighth in the GI TVG.com Haskell S. in which Authentic nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by losing focus. Ability beyond nine furlongs remains an open question (because having multiple Grade II-winning sprinter Mr. Greeley as his dam-sire does give Authentic’s pedigree a short-distance slant). But it’s also not difficult to envision a scenario in which the Churchill strip comes up speed-favoring and Authentic gets bold on a loose lead.

7) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-1, $323,310.
Last Start: 6th GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 8, 1st Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 2nd GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 7.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

Sole Volante has more upside than people might perceive coming into the Derby. This $6,000 KEESEP and $20,000 OBSAPR Karakontie pinhook will be firing fresh (78-day respite) after reportedly not liking the track in the Belmont S., and trainer Patrick Biancone backed this gelding off from deep-summer preps to instead leg up with a series of turf works at Palm Meadows in Florida. Sole Volante has already run four 92-plus Beyers on dirt, and it’s crucial to point out that he earned those numbers over two tracks–Gulfstream and Tampa–that are historically not conducive to off-the-tailgate running styles like his. This is a light-bodied stayer who could be in the hunt well into the final furlong of the Derby. Sole Volante’s dam only won once, but it was over 14 furlongs in England.

8) NECKER ISLAND (c, Hard Spun—Jenny’s Rocket, by Mr. Greeley) O-Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scherr & Will Harbut Racing LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Chris Hartman. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 10-2-0-3, $199,730.
Last Start: 3rd Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 1.
Accomplishments include: 3rd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Necker Island, a $100,000 claim three starts back, owns Churchill wins over both a fast and a sloppy surface, but those two victories were last autumn at the start of his career when one-turn miles and seven-furlong sprints seemed to be his sweet spot. Although this Hard Spun colt hasn’t been able to break past the 86-87 Beyer plateau his last four starts, he was facing some talented winners in Art Collector (Bernardini) and Maxfield (Street Sense). Necker Island’s third in the GIII Indiana Derby is actually quite a bit more impressive than it appears on paper: he stumbled at the break, got hooked wide on both turns, then got first run at the pacemaker before hanging in admirably behind a winner who shaved 0.17 seconds off the nine-furlong track record.

9) NY TRAFFIC (c, Cross Traffic–Mamie Reilly, by Graeme Hall)
O-John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing & Paul Braverman. B-Brian Culnan (NY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $27,000 RNA 2yo ’19 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-3-2, $565,470.
Last Start: 2nd GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18
Accomplishments Include: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 21, 2nd GIII Matt Winn S., CD, May 23, 3rd GII Risen Star S. Div. 2, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

In four graded stakes preps this season, the 2-for-9 Ny Traffic has run three seconds and a third, and he hasn’t been beaten by more than 1 1/2 lengths in any of those efforts. But this $27,000 EASMAY Cross Traffic gray hasn’t won a stakes yet, and his only two lifetime wins were a Parx MSW and a Gulfstream allowance/optional claimer. Yet he has a hard-trying, overachieving way of going, and he was barely nosed out of a  Haskell S. upset by 3-5 fave Authentic. This colt has experience at nine furlongs (twice) and 1 3/16 miles, and generally outruns his odds. Is he the “sleeper” New York-bred in the Derby with fellow Empire Stater Tiz the Law drawing all the attention and betting action?

10) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 5-2-1-2, $373,500.
Last Start: 3rd GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 1, 3rd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

This first-crop Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) was a commendable third in both the Belmont S. and the Travers S., but he wasn’t in the same league as dominant winner Tiz the Law in either contest. We still haven’t seen a big breakout race from this slow-but-steady learner, and his connections have gambled on a trainer change for the Derby. Steve Asmussen took over from Linda Rice after the Travers, and while that’s probably too short a time window for a new conditioning regimen to produce immediate results, Max might awaken under the aggressive handling of new jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who rides quite a bit more assertively than the strong-finishing, but more patient Joel Rosario.

The Rest of the Field…

11) SOUTH BEND (c, Algorithms—Sandra’s Rose, by Old Trieste) O-Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch & Pantofel Stable LLC; B-Highclere Inc (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $47,000 RNA Ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $70,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 12-3-2-2, $390,114.
Last Start: 4th GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Equineline PPs.

Trainer Bill Mott saddled 65-1 Country House (Lookin At Luck) in the Derby last year and ended up getting moved up from second to win via DQ. This year his trainee South Bend figures to be in the same stratospheric odds range. This $70,000 OBSMAR Algorithms bay (RNA’d for $47,000 at FKTJUL) began his career a perfect three-for-three but hasn’t won since. At 12 starts, he’s the most experienced starter in this year’s edition. He rated from last to get fourth in the Travers S. (first start under Mott’s care), so he already has 10-furlong experience. And at age two, he ran a crackerjack race over the Churchill surface, winning the one-turn-mile Street Sense S. while only a hundredth of a second off the stakes record. Not an overt win threat, but definitely fodder for exotics.

12) MR. BIG NEWS (c, Giant’s Causeway—Unappeased {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Allied Racing Stable LLC; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW, 7-2-1-0, $168,553
Last Start: 6th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Equineline PPs.

With a distance-centric pedigree (by Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare), you can see why 10 furlongs could very well be within the wheelhouse for Mr. Big News. The exclamation point in his past performance block is the 46-1 half-length splashdown win he earned when relishing a sealed/sloppy Hot Springs track in the Apr. 11 Oaklawn S. But Mr. Big News was drifting out in that victory, and only one of the dozen horses he bested that day (Thousand Words) has proven to be of Kentucky Derby caliber. Although his career-top Beyer of 88 will not be good enough to win the Derby, it’s worth noting that this colt has never regressed in terms of speed numbers, earning Beyers that have moved upward for each of his seven lifetime tries.

13) MONEY MOVES (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen) O-Robert V LaPenta & Bortolazzo Stable; B-Whitehall Lane Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,400.
Last Start: 2nd Allowance, SAR, July 25
Equineline PPs.

This $975,000 OBSAPR Candy Ride (Arg) colt is light on experience (just three races), but high on potential based on a pair of one-turn Gulfstream wins to kick off his career and an eye-catching 98-Beyer second at Saratoga over nine furlongs. He’s run well as a pace-pressing threat and has overcome two stutter-step starts leaving the gate, but being in the hunt over 10 furlongs in just his second start back since March is still a major ask at this point in his career. But history could be on his side: dam-sire Proud Citizen was also a late consideration for the 2002 Derby, yet he ran a better-than-expected second at 23-1 odds.

14) ATTACHMENT RATE (c, Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex) O-Jim Bakke & Gerald Isbister; B-Mr & Mrs C Oliver Iselin (VA); T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $100,000 Wlg ’17 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 8-1-3-1, $143,732.
Last Start: 2nd Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs.

As a May 18 foal, Attachment Rate has no doubt benefitted from the September rescheduling of the Derby. But with only a maiden win to his credit, this Virginia-bred Hard Spun colt ($100,000 KEENOV; $200,000 KEESEP) is facing a tall task coming off a best-of-the-rest second behind Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby. Prior to that, he had trip trouble in three consecutive stakes yet managed to improve his Beyers in each of those efforts.

15) FINNICK THE FIERCE (g, Dialed In—Southern Classic, by Southern Image) O-Arnaldo Monge & Rey Hernandez; B-Paige Jillian Blue Sky Stables (KY); T-Rey Hernandez. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-1-2, $191,290. Last Start: 7th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11 Equineline PPs

Finnick the Fierce hasn’t dodged any heavy hitters in his preps, and he’s run some respectable races at long odds while picking up a handful checks for minor awards. Most notably, he is one of only two horses to ever finish in front of Tiz the Law, running an 87-1 second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. over a waterlogged Churchill surface. But Finnick’s only true win was a five-furlong sprint at age two at Indiana Downs in a four-horse field (he also got moved up via DQ at Oaklawn going 1 1/16 miles). Although co-owner and trainer Rey Hernandez noted this Dialed In gelding has thrice run well from post one, the rail draw is traditionally a disadvantage in the crowded Derby, and it’s even more complicated for Finnick because he lost his right eye as a baby (congenital cataract) and won’t be able to see the wall of horses to his immediate outside.

16) STORM THE COURT (c, Court Vision–My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run) O-Exline-Border Racing LLC & David A Bernsen LLC; B-Stepping Stone Farm (KY); T-Peter Eurton. Sales History: $5,000 Ylg ’18 FTKFEB; $60,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 9-2-1-3, $1,310,451.
Last Start: 2nd GIII La Jolla H., DMR, Aug. 9.
Equineline PPs.

Storm the Court enters the Derby winless in 10 months, with his last score being the  45-1 shocker in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that he has been unable to replicate. Although this $60,000 OBSAPR bay (bought for $5,000 as a FTKFEB yearling) doesn’t have a “traditional” Derby-horse pedigree, hints of it are there. Sire Court Vision, although known as a MGISW turfer who capped his career with a win in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile, did start his career on dirt with wins in the GIII Iroquois S. and GII Remsen S. at age two, and he started in both the Kentucky Derby and GI Travers S. at three. Dam-sire Tejano Run was a rugged (8-4-6 from 21 starts) MGSW/MGISP galloper who ran second in the 1995 Derby.

17) MAJOR FED (c, Ghostzapper—Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike) O-Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC; B-Lloyd Madison IV (KY); T-Greg Foley. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-2-1, $215,600.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8
Equineline PPs.

Major Fed is one of three Derby entrants who have yet to win beyond the maiden ranks. This Ghostzapper homebred out of a Smart Strike mare has earned two seconds in Grade II and Grade III stakes, and his best efforts have come from mid-pack stalking trips. He has a habit of getting parked out wide on the turns, so trying to tuck in to save ground from post five might be his best shot.

18) WINNING IMPRESSION (g, Paynter—Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled’s Song) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Pearl Racing; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $77,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 9-1-1-2, $98,552.
Last Start: 7th Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs.

Winning Impression has the makings of a mudlark. Unfortunately for him, the advance forecast for Derby day is clear and sunny. He’s crossed the finish wire first both times he’s raced over the slop (losing one via DQ) but has been beaten double-digit lengths in a pair of seventh-place efforts in two summer stakes preps since then. His sire, Paynter, was second in the 2012 GI Belmont S. over 1 1/2 miles, so there is a glimmer of hope that 10 furlongs in the Derby could be a move-up for him.

The post The TDN Derby Rankings for September 2 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Verified by MonsterInsights