Economic Indicators: Pandemic, Derby Date Change Have Year-To-Date Wagering Down 10.88 Percent

Equibase, LLC released its monthly report on Economic Indicators in Thoroughbred Racing this Monday, June 6. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Equibase is currently providing monthly reporting of its Economic Indicators Advisories. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

June's numbers show a slight increase in total wagering, up 0.76 percent over the same month in 2019, a small positive change as racing across the country has resumed in the past month.

Most tracks are operating without fans in attendance, though some have begun to allow a small number of fans and owners to attend racing or morning training.

Still, the numbers for the second quarter demonstrate the affect that the pandemic has had on the racing industry. The total wagering from April through June of 2020 is down 18.85 percent over the same three-month period of 2019; considering that the rescheduled Kentucky Derby was not included in that period this year, that difference is not as significant as it might otherwise seem.

Overall, year-to-date wagering has decreased 10.88 percent compared to the first six months of 2019.

Due to the cancellation of almost every major sporting event across the world, average wagering per race day showed a dramatic increase of 67.60 percent from April 2019 to April 2020. The average racing per race day in the second quarter is up 101.28 percent over the same period of 2019, while year-to-date average wagering per race day has increased 44.12 percent from the first four months of 2019 to the first four months of 2020.

June 2020 vs. June 2019
Indicator June 2020 June 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $998,448,300 $990,923,384 +0.76%
U.S. Purses $69,463,605 $115,194,834 -39.70%
U.S. Race Days 300 499 -39.88%
U.S. Races 2,485 3,905 -36.36%
U.S. Starts 20,146 27,726 -27.34%
Average Field Size 8.11 7.10 +14.18%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,328,161 $1,985,818 +67.60%
Average Purses Per Race Day $231,545 $230,851 +0.30%

2nd QTR 2020 vs. 2nd QTR 2019
Indicator 2nd QTR 2020 2nd QTR 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $2,546,352,350 $3,137,805,499 -18.85%
U.S. Purses $118,929,007 $316,882,492 -62.47%
U.S. Race Days 508 1,260 -59.68%
U.S. Races 4,290 10,167 -57.80%
U.S. Starts 36,101 73,409 -50.82%
Average Field Size 8.42 7.22 +16.55%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $5,012,505 $2,490,322 +101.28%
Average Purses Per Race Day $234,112 $251,494 -6.91%

YTD 2020 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator YTD 2020 YTD 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $5,055,522,519 $5,672,774,271 -10.88%
U.S. Purses $324,156,658 $544,002,132 -40.41%
U.S. Race Days 1,301 2,104 -38.17%
U.S. Races 10,906 17,457 -37.53%
U.S. Starts 88,074 130,239 -32.38%
Average Field Size 8.08 7.46 +8.25%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,885,874 $2,696,185 +44.12%
Average Purses Per Race Day $249,160 $258,556 -3.63%

 

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Lasix Debate: The Stronach Group Refusing To Card 2-Year-Old Races In Maryland

Unless the Maryland Racing Commission directs otherwise, there will be no 2-year-old races in Maryland in 2020 in light of the refusal of The Stronach Group, owner of the Maryland Jockey Club, to card 2-year-old races unless they are lasix-free.

In March 2019, TSG announced that it would impose a ban on lasix in horses born after 2018 at its racetracks. The action stemmed from a series of catastrophic injuries at Santa Anita—though it was widely acknowledged that lasix had nothing to do with that situation and the announcement was considered a misdirection to deflect criticism of the company's safety and welfare practices and track maintenance. Subsequently, TSG joined with a coalition of racetracks that announced they would seek to ban lasix in 2-year-olds beginning in 2020 and all stakes races beginning in 2021.

The Boards of Directors of the MTHA and Maryland Horse Breeders Association, in response to the TSG announcement, met jointly to review the TSG lasix announcement. The Boards determined to issue a joint statement in opposition, and it was released on April 24, 2019. In response, TSG President Belinda Stronach asked to meet with both groups, and a meeting was held at Laurel Park during Preakness week in 2019.

At the meeting, the group discussed the situation and sought to have Ms. Stronach appreciate how the racing industry in the Mid-Atlantic region works collaboratively to ensure that jurisdictions adopt the same rules and regulations in an effort to continually build upon uniformity for the benefit of horsemen, racetracks and the public. She acknowledged that Maryland is not California or Florida—the other states where the company owns racetracks—and agreed to work collectively with Maryland leaders on the lasix issue and not impose any mandates that would put Maryland at a severe competitive disadvantage with its surrounding states.

The groups also indicated a willingness to discuss lasix policies and told Ms. Stronach that they would be willing to provide meaningful funds for research to find a suitable alternative to Lasix that would control respiratory bleeding in the horse and not be necessary on race day. Both the MTHA and MHBA invited Ms. Stronach to join in the funding effort.

To date, Ms. Stronach has made no effort to meet with the horsemen and breeders or engage in any discussion about changing lasix policy in Maryland or the Mid-Atlantic region.

At the same time, the MRC was asked whether TSG could impose a lasix ban by “house rule.” The Attorney General's Office, in a letter of advice to the MRC, stated:

“Clearly, COMAR 09.10.03.08 permits administration of race-day lasix. Accordingly, because the administration of lasix is allowable on race day, implementing a house rule forbidding its administration would be in contravention of the current regulations … Accordingly, it is the advice of this office that the potential imposition of a house rule by the licensee to prohibit the administration of race-day lasix is not allowable without modification of COMAR 01.10.03.08.”

Subsequently, during the negotiations last fall for funding the proposed Racing and Community Development Act for Pimlico Race Course and Laurel—in which substantial funding was sought from the horsemen and breeders for the next 30 years—both Boards made clear that a process for future medication policy, among other items, would need to be resolved in order for any permanent funding commitments could be finalized. In reliance on the belief that such a process would be agreed upon in any long-term agreement required in legislation, both groups agreed to support the plan to make it financially viable. Had TSG been forthright with both Boards at the time about its plans to impose its own lasix policies without any discussion or regulatory review, and the manner in which TSG actually planned to proceed, it is highly unlikely that either Board would have committed to funding the Redevelopment Plan for the next 30 years.

As it became apparent when live racing resumed May 30 that the MJC was not carding 2-year-old races, repeated inquiries to the MJC and TSG by the MTHA were met with explanations having nothing to do with lasix policy until June 18 when suddenly, and without any prior notice or discussion with the MTHA and MHBA, TSG advised the MRC by letter, and in a Press Release issued at the same time, that it intended to begin carding non-lasix 2-year-old races beginning June 24 by “house rule” despite the Attorney General's opinion to the contrary.

In a legal brief filed with the MRC, TSG asserted that it did not need the racing commission's approval, that the regulations did not apply to the company, that it had the right to card such races under its common law powers, and that the regulation on bleeders was poorly written and permitted TSG to card such races. In an acrimonious and contentious meeting June 25, the MRC rejected TSG's arguments, advised the company that it could not card non-lasix races for 2-year-olds without a rule change, and referred the lasix issue to its newly formed Equine Health, Safety and Welfare Committee that was mandated by the Racing and Community Development Act of 2020.

In response to a question about whether TSG planned to card 2-year-old races under current regulations in addition to non-lasix races, TSG announced that it would refuse to card races in which the horses could be administered lasix, notwithstanding that Maryland law permits horses to receive such a medication.

In an effort to defuse the crisis, get 2-year-old races carded, and help the industry continue to recover from the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, the MTHA Board of Directors on July 1 offered to TSG to permit 2-year-old races to be carded for the next 90 days, with 50% of such races to be run under the current rules and 50% of the races to be run lasix-free, and commence discussions with TSG and the new MRC Safety and Welfare Committee on future lasix policy.

The offer was promptly rejected by TSG, but TSG offered that it would be willing to card some non-lasix Maryland-bred 2-year-old races with bonuses paid by TSG. The MTHA unanimously rejected this offer.

Which brings us to the current situation. The manner in which this matter has been raised and handled by TSG, particularly in light of the history of this issue over the past year, commitments it made to the Maryland racing community that were not honored, and the current economic crisis in Maryland racing where it has lost two-and-a-half months of live racing, pari-mutuel revenue and video lottery terminal revenue because of the shutdown and currently can only afford to race twice a week, is bewildering to say the least.

Trainers have been conditioning 2-year-olds for months waiting for a race. Owners and breeders are taking a major financial hit, particularly with Maryland-bred 2-year-olds that must race in state to qualify for the lucrative owner and breeder bonuses that are depended upon to sustain their operations. On July 1, a $40,000 maiden special weight event at Delaware Park was split into two divisions, each with seven horses—almost all Maryland-based.

We are appalled and disheartened by the defiant manner and tone in which TSG has chosen to act. We have no problem discussing and reviewing Lasix policy in racing. It has been a decade since the industry conducted an intensive scientific and political review of its Lasix program, and the current regulatory scheme, the most uniform in racing, should be reviewed.

To its credit, the MRC wants to undertake a review before changing current regulatory policy and agrees the discussion shall be regional in scope. There are scientific, equine safety and welfare, integrity and public policy issues to be considered. Apparently, TSG does not want this discussion. Rather, it simply wants to dictate policy to trusted partners without any discussion and review and is holding Maryland racing and breeding hostage to achieve its goals.

In the process, TSG is causing economic havoc and has badly damaged a decade of partnership, trust and progress in Maryland racing—the renaissance of Maryland racing—as all stakeholders and the MRC have worked collectively to lift the industry and keep disagreements behind closed doors. If successful in its strategy,TSG could set a precedent going forward that could have them dictating industry policy without any input from horsemen and breeders or regulatory oversight by imposing their own rules and regulations and in the process, reduce this industry to division and acrimony.

The MTHA regrets that the possibility remains there will be no 2-year-old racing in Maryland this year. As was stated at the June 25 MRC meeting: “Maryland racing deserves better.” We trust the MRC recognizes it powers and responsibilities and will firmly deal with a track owner who believes it can do what it wants and without any regard for the industry at large.

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10-Year-Old Pay Any Price Prevails In Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint

Pay Any Price, the 10-year-old gelding owned by Averill Racing LLC and Matties Racing Stable LLC, held off a late rally by Ambassador Luna to win Sunday's $75,000 Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint by a nose over a 'good' turf course at Gulfstream Park.

A son of Wildcat Heir trained by Georgina Baxter, Pay Any Price has won 19 of 33 races, including nine stakes. The gelding won the Umphrey in 2017 and 2018, the Crystal River in 2018 and 2019, and was second in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint in 2017.

The win was especially pleasing to Baxter after Pay Any Price lost his three previous starts.

“This horse is amazing, isn't he?” Baxter said. “I know his last two runs were questionable but you can never write this horse off. You have to respect him every time he steps on the racetrack.

“He's special to me. He's special to everyone in the barn. He's 10 years old. His worst enemy is his attitude, but he's turned into be our best friend – the fact that he is so goofy and quirky. He's still so good and so fast and still running well at 10 years old.”

Pay Any Price popped out of the gate under jockey Edgard Zayas and set fractions of :21.84 and :44.03 before hitting the wire first. The gelding was bred in Florida by Brent and Crystal Fernung and has now won 16 of 24 starts at Gulfstream.

Earlier in the afternoon, GU Racing Stable LLC's Belle Laura split horses around the turn and drove to an impressive victory in Sunday's $60,000 In The Breeze, covering a good mile turf course in 1:35.32.

The 4-year-old daughter of Mucho Macho Man, facing 10 others, including six stakes winners, was fifth down the backstretch before moving between pacesetter Dangerous Curves and Rosa Star around the turn and then driving away to a 4 ½ length victory over Great Sister Diane. Midnight Soiree was third.

Belle Laura is now two-for-two this year under the shedrow of trainer Juan Avila and jockey Hector Berrios. The filly finished third in the Jessamine (G2) and seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) as a 2-year-old, and third in the Herecomesthebride (G3) last year.

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Mitchell Road Fends Off Challengers To Win Ellis Park Turf

The $50,000 Ellis Park Turf proved Mitchell Road's path back into the winner's circle as she held off upset-minded Strike My Fancy to triumph by a neck.

The class of the field, Mitchell Road was a Grade 3 winner last year but came into the Ellis Park Turf 0 for 3 in 2020, finishing seventh in Churchill Downs' Grade 3 Mint Julep following a pair of seconds.

“I think we were just looking around for a good spot for her,” said Kenny McCarthy, who oversees the Churchill Downs operation for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. “I mean, she tries hard every time we run her. I think sometimes mentally it's nice for them to win one, when they put forth so much effort. She's been pretty consistent, so it was good to get the win today.”

Mitchell Road was unprepared at the start and broke last but was content to briefly settle behind Harmless, who at 33-1 was the longest shot in the field of six older fillies and mares, before lapping on alongside her rival. Harmless actually stuck her head back in front in midstretch, but Mitchell Road shook her off and then held Strike My Fancy at bay.

“It worked out pretty well,” said Joe Talamo, winning his first stakes at Ellis Park in his first year making Kentucky his base. “The pace was really slow. I just let her gather up her stride and slowly get up there. She got into a really good rhythm down the backside, the whole way around there. Then turning for home, I had a lot of horse. When that other filly came to me, she fought her off pretty nicely. When she got to the lead, I felt like she might have been waiting a little bit, so I was actually happy to see that other filly come to her. I think it made her pay attention a little bit more. Because even galloping out, she was still full of run. I was just thankful for the opportunity. She's a very nice filly.”

Mitchell Road toured 1 1/16 miles over firm turf in 1:43.12, quickening to cover the final sixteenth-mile in 6.10 seconds. The daughter of turf champion English Channel paid $3.60 to win as the 4-5 favorite.

“She's a filly, if you watch her races, she loves a dogfight,” McCarthy said. “It's like she kind of gets there and then is waiting there for that next one to come. I saw the 6 (Strike My Fancy) coming, but I felt she was still going to hold. That's the kind of filly she is.”

The Matt Shirer-trained Strike My Fancy closed with a rush under Colby Hernandez to make a close race out of it.

“My horse ran a big race. She tries every time,” said Hernandez, the younger brother of Kentucky mainstay Brian Hernandez Jr. “She's a very easy horse to ride. She puts you where you need to be in a race. At the sixteenth pole I thought I had a chance at the winner.”

Harmless — claimed for $62,500 in her prior start, and finishing eighth that day — came in another 1 1/4 lengths back in third under Alex Achard, thrilling new trainer Michelle Lovell.

“That was good,” she said. “I thought she may hang in for second. She hung in there for a long time.”

Mintd, who hit the gate at the start, came in fourth. Timeless Curls, who pushed the early pace in her first start in 13 1/2 months, and Our Bay B Ruth founded out the field. Sister Hanan, Makealitlemischief, Mighty Scarlett and Complicit were scratched.

Mitchell Road now has won races at ages 3, 4 and 5, with three stakes victories last year — including Pimlico's Grade 3 Gallorette two weeks after her younger half-brother Country House gave Mott his first victory in the Kentucky Derby. Both horses are out of the War Chant mare Quake Lake. Mitchell Road now is 7-5-0 in 15 starts, earning $501,060 for Mrs. J.V. Shields Jr. and E.J.M. McFadden Jr.

“Any year you can win a stakes is a great year for it,” McCarthy said. “Obviously this is probably her last year of running, so let's look around for her and try to find her some good spots and let her pad her resume.”

A good spot easily could be Ellis Park's $100,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf on Aug. 2. The winner of that race gets a fees-paid spot in the $500,000, Grade 3 Three Chimneys Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf on Sept. 12, a race Mitchell Road ran second in last year.

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