Wagering Insecurity: The Rise Of Grey Betting Markets

Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale made it clear how important it was, for him and the overall racing industry, to place his massive Kentucky Derby bet on-track at Churchill Downs. He told the Thoroughbred Daily News:

“It's crazy that some people in the horse racing business bet with a bookie or go offshore to a place like Costa Rica. They're not supporting racing.”

While there are plenty of legal arrangements for betting on U.S. racing, be it through any ADW account, at the track, an OTB outlet, or even for those abroad betting through licensed bookmakers who have agreements in place with U.S. tracks, there are many illicit operators which seek to skirt the law and share no revenue with horsemen or track operators.

Betting markets can be classified in three categories, defined below in the recent Handbook from the Asian Racing Federation's Council on Anti-Illegal Betting and Related Financial Crime (ARFCAIB):

– [Legal] market: Companies licensed to operate in the jurisdiction where their customers are located.

 – Grey market: Companies licensed in some jurisdictions, but which take bets from consumers in jurisdictions where they are not licensed.

 – [Illegal] market: Operators who have no license from any jurisdiction.

No matter how robust your legal market regulation and monitoring may be, racing operators worldwide must be attentive to the issues created by grey and illegal betting sites.

For this report, we speak most about “grey market operators” – or GMOs. Their presence can impact legal pari-mutuel markets, degrade customer confidence and threaten the integrity of the sport. That impact was felt on at least three occasions in the last month at one U.S. track.

In April 2021, at least three instances of tote pool manipulation occurred in quinella pools at Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma.

Extremely large wagers, relative to the size of the overall pool, were placed on combinations likely to lose, inflating the actual tote returns on more favored horses.

The goal of such manipulation is to dramatically change the odds on the pari-mutuel outcomes and win far more by betting through a non-parimutuel operator (like a GMO) which pays at track prices and at generous limits. While the manipulated bets on the legal, pari-mutuel pools are expected to be losing ones and inflate the returns for other successful customers, the manipulator aims to make a far larger score through their other plays. There were instances of such manipulation through the mid-1990s at Nevada racebooks before most books stopped booking racing bets and adopted pari-mutuel wagering on racing.

The quinella pool at Will Rogers typically handled between a few hundred dollars to less than $2,000 per race. In the most egregious example of manipulation, which occurred in Race 2 on April 27, the quinella pool totaled $7,469 for this Oklahoma-bred claiming event.

The winning quinella (first two horses in any order) featured the two favorites in a five-horse field and returned an astounding $51.30 for every $1 bet. The exacta with the same horses returned $6.20 while the trifecta with the third choice in betting running third paid $9.60.

What seemed like a gift for favorite backers could have been a nightmare for those who legitimately backed the two longest-priced runners in the small field if that result had materialized. The quinella probable payouts featuring those two horses, who closed at 6-1 and 9-1 in the win pool, would have returned $1.05 for every $1 bet.

A review of the quinella probables in the final moments of betting showed that the eventual winning combination was paying $3.90 in the next-to-last update of the probables, while the longshot combination, which would tumble to $1.05, was paying $18.30 at that time.

What was being treated as the least likely outcome in the win and exacta pool would close as a 1-20 favorite in the quinella pool.

There were variations on these manipulations earlier, on April 7 and April 20. The acts of manipulation are not in violation of law or even existing betting rules but could trigger a blow to customer confidence and lead to legitimate questions about the integrity of race results, depending on the circumstances of each race. Vigilance from stewards and regulators is absolutely necessary.

Will Rogers Downs, much to their credit, stopped offering quinella wagers after their April 28 races.

Grey Market Operators (GMOs)

While wanting to raise awareness to the issues the GMOs create, TIF has no interest in promoting a troublesome betting option. For that reason, we use generic titles below to describe the actions of three GMOs.

Grey Market Operator 1 (GMO1) is based in Asia and is reportedly the world's largest unregulated betting exchange. It shares no information and allegedly handles as much on Hong Kong racing as the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) itself.

Michael Cox's 2015 profile is well worth reading, providing additional insight on GMOs and a connection to U.S. racing.

In February 2021, three men were arrested, and more than US$1 million in cash seized, at Hong Kong's Sha Tin Racecourse where the men were allegedly laying horses which were slow into stride, using sites like those run by GMO1 and taking advantage of the lag between live viewing of the races and the ability of sites to shut betting.

Attendance at Sha Tin was severely limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic and those arrested were guests of, at the least, Hong Kong horse owners.

As cited previously in this series, Hong Kong's betting monitoring includes profiles on jockeys and alerts are triggered if “irregular trends” for slow starts are identified.

Grey Market Operator 2 (GMO2) is perhaps the most aggressive operator seeking to attract racing wagering from Americans.

GMO2 operates a marketing arm which produces legitimate, original racing-related content from established and even award-winning American racing writers and media members. They created an annual award series, tagging various trainers, jockeys and other racing fans through social media in the hopes of engaging them to spread their message and promote their illicit platforms.

You won't find a more striking example of the degradation of American racing journalism and its lack of independent media coverage on it than seeing recognized journalists and publicists accepting work for a GMO.

GMO2 prefers that its customers use cryptocurrency to fund accounts and receive winnings while guaranteeing a daily rebate on all play. One executive with a legal American ADW, who asked not to be identified, told TIF that GMO2 has “an incredibly effective search engine optimization strategy which almost certainly is helping them grow their business.”

Grey Market Operator 3 (GMO3) offers 17 different methods to fund accounts to bet on any number of sports or racing offerings. Eight of the funding methods are cryptocurrencies, headlined by Bitcoin, but includes Ethereum and several smaller cryptocurrencies. GMOs seem to have a growing affinity for cryptocurrency because of the difficulties with legitimate banking transfers.

According to the ARFCAIB Handbook, this evolution in funding methods presents more challenges to concern racing.

“Many cryptocurrency betting operators accept bets that allow the customer complete anonymity…

“To support integrity operations, sports and gambling regulators rely on information-sharing agreements with betting operators…

“Account opening procedures can be limited to user name, password and e-mail address, while some operators do not even require these for a customer to place a bet.”

On Saturday, January 30, 2021, GMO3 took betting across every Thoroughbred and Standardbred race in America.

One year earlier, in January 2020, a tweet from an American owner whose horses accumulated earnings approaching $9 million from more than 1,000 starts over the last five years as of April 2021, boasted about winning thousands from GMO3 and posted screenshots (since deleted, though retained by TIF) of the successful bets.

A second horse owner whose family history in the sport includes a win in a Breeders' Cup race, posted images of successful GMO bets on racing via social media in February 2021. He indicated ADWs were not legal in his U.S. state, and thus he had no choice but to use such an option.

Betting with GMOs is the least sustainable method of wagering on American racing. No revenue from these bets is returned – to horsemen to fund purses or tracks to fund operations.

They are free riders on racing's own product.

Race fixing and worse

Speaking at the 2020 Asian Racing Conference, Tom Chignell, the HKJC's Executive Manager, Racing Integrity and Betting Analysis, a member of the ARFCAIB, and a former betting investigator with the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), offered a sobering assessment of the overall situation:

“The greatest betting integrity threat to racing are jockeys or trainers stopping horses from winning and then betting them to lose on the illegal markets.”

Chignell makes it clear that the sport's attention to bet monitoring must come not only on the legal markets on which racing regulators have some oversight, but also an awareness of other, less-visible markets which can also lead to corruption of the sport.

“You have to be looking at the illegal market. If you are looking to race-fix or match-fix, why would you bet with the legal market where there are healthy, established reporting channels when there is a large illegal market, with insufficient know-your-customer [policies] and almost non-existent reporting channels to racing authorities?”

Betting sites in the grey or illegal markets are not operating solely out of pure profit motives either, but also as a conduit for money laundering of other criminal proceeds.

The ARFCAIB Handbook outlines the specifics:

“Illegal betting is also a key means of money laundering by transnational organized crime. It has been estimated that US$140 billion, or 10% of global crime proceeds, is laundered through sports betting every year…

“Sports betting websites are essentially analogous to financial institutions as they are involved in deposits and withdrawal of money, which can be huge amounts. Yet, illegal operators are subject to none of the [anti-money laundering] oversight of financial institutions or indeed legal betting operators.

“Exacerbating this is the fact that many illegal operators are deliberately run poorly in this regard – they are set up by transnational organized crime specifically to make the proceeds of crime appear to be the profits from licensed betting operations.

“For example, in 2015, police seized EUR2 billion [approximately $2.5 billion] of assets from the 'Ndrangheta, the Italian organized crime group behind most of Europe's cocaine trade. These assets included 82 gambling websites licensed in the betting haven of Malta, through which huge sums were laundered.”

The ARFCAIB does not currently have a member from North America within its ranks, which includes racing industry representatives from Australia, Great Britain, Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea and organizational representation from the United Nations Office on Drugs and CrimeINTERPOL and the Australia Criminal Intelligence Commission.

The more direct connection between the role of racing and that of grey and illegal markets becomes clearer, as the ARFCAIB Handbook continues:

“The globalization of sport and betting has been a perfect combination for the corruption of racing and other sport. Match-fixers can arrange a fix safe in the knowledge that leading Asian illegal bookmakers often accept large bets on even obscure sporting events.

“Unlike legal operators, illegal betting operators do not share information about suspicious betting patterns or otherwise co-operate with law enforcement or sports governing bodies. Illegal betting operators ignore race-and match-fixing, and may actively participate.

“Race-and match-fixing has a huge social and economic impact, and if not stopped leads to a vicious cycle of corruption which can destroy the public's faith in the sport. Once lost, it is extremely difficult if not impossible to win back this trust.

“For horse racing, this is of even greater concern, since the sport depends on public confidence in racing integrity, without which there is no betting appeal.”

While a majority of developed racing jurisdictions are managing their racing and betting operations cognizant of these threats, North America is falling short of much of the rest of the racing world, at least for now.

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TIF: Wagering Insecurity, Part 9–Alerts

This is Part 9 of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation's (TIF) series “Wagering Insecurity.”

Faced with remarkable competitive pressure from the rise of legal sports betting, horse racing is at a crossroads. Confidence amongst horseplayers and horse owners is essential to the future sustainability of the sport. Efforts to improve the greater North American Thoroughbred industry will fall flat if its stakeholders fail to secure a foundation of integrity. Achieving this is growing increasingly difficult after the sport has neglected its core base–horseplayers–for decades.

“Wagering Insecurity” details some of that neglect, and the need to embrace serious reform. Fortunately, there are examples across the racing world to follow.

Suspicious betting alerts were generated across five races at one U.S. track in the fourth quarter of 2020.

It was the first time the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) registered such alerts on American racing.

The betting they monitor is through licensed European-based betting operators, many of whom are offering bets on American racing at fixed odds. Up until at least the start of the “Wagering Insecurity” series, no U.S. regulators had an information-sharing relationship with the IBIA.

Worldwide wagering requires worldwide monitoring.

While American customers cannot yet legally partake in such wagers outside a few races booked by Nevada casinos, the practice is soon to come to New Jersey residents and it has been a growing business overseas.

One bookmaker estimates the total handle on U.S. racing at fixed odds for European customers in 2020 at more than $1 billion.

No matter where the wagering takes place, regulators and stewards must be attentive to the potential integrity threats facing the sport.

For the complete article, click here.

The post TIF: Wagering Insecurity, Part 9–Alerts appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Wagering Insecurity: Suspicious Alerts

This is Part 9 of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation's (TIF) series “Wagering Insecurity.”

Faced with remarkable competitive pressure from the rise of legal sports betting, horse racing is at a crossroads.

Confidence amongst horseplayers and horse owners is essential to the future sustainability of the sport. Efforts to improve the greater North American Thoroughbred industry will fall flat if its stakeholders fail to secure a foundation of integrity, along with increased transparency of the wagering business and its participants over time. Achieving this is growing increasingly difficult after the sport has neglected its core base – horseplayers – for decades.

“Wagering Insecurity” details some of that neglect, and the need to embrace serious reform. Fortunately, there are examples across the racing world to follow.

PART 9 – ALERTS

Foreign bookmakers accepting bets on American racing have recently identified suspicious betting on U.S. races themselves.

According to the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA), a consortium of mostly European-based bookmakers, 270 suspicious alerts were generated across all sports by their monitoring platform in 2020.

Five of the IBIA's alerts were generated on U.S. racing, all in the fourth quarter of 2020, the first time the group has identified any suspicious betting activity on North American races.

The IBIA told TIF that five races from one American track were the source of the alerts, all of which had one consistent characteristic among them. As for the specific details, no more information could be shared due to data protection requirements.

The suspicious activity originated with customers outside of America whose bets were regulated by a well-respected, international gambling regulator. The suspicious activity was reported to this regulator at the time of the relevant races.

However, the IBIA does not have information-sharing relationships with any North American racing jurisdictions, and up until now, their betting operators had not generated any alerts on U.S. racing.

IBIA Director of Integrity Matt Fowler offers more detail.

“If there were agreements, or memoranda of understanding between IBIA and American state racing regulators in place, we definitely would be reporting it directly to them. We do have relationships with other American sports authorities, so it would not be unusual for us to reach out to an American entity and provide information.”

There is no reason to wait until the recommendation phase of this series – such agreements or MOUs should be struck as soon as possible.

Prior to publishing this series, TIF connected one major state regulatory agency to IBIA and has learned other groups have reached out since the summary of “Wagering Insecurity” was published with these details.

The IBIA's 2020 annual report showed 12 suspicious betting alerts were generated from American tennis matches, up from eight in 2019 and 3 in 2018. Prior to 2020, tennis had been the only sport to generate suspicious alerts from American events available for betting across the IBIA's membership.

The IBIA noted that unusual betting patterns alone do not generate suspicious betting alerts. Fowler continued:

“There are many factors that go into declaring a suspicious alert. This goes well beyond just an unusual betting pattern or unexpected price movement. There is a process in place to getting to the 270 alerts we issued in 2020, which is much less than the total number of incidents which were reviewed. We take very seriously the business of declaring an alert.”

BOOMING BUSINESS

International customers are legally betting North American racing at fixed odds through licensed bookmakers.

They are betting a lot of money.

XB-Net, owned by 1/ST (formerly The Stronach Group), “is the exclusive provider of international wagering” on more than 70 North American tracks at fixed odds to foreign customers. It sells North American track signals to international sites, along with a variety of services to bookmakers, including data.

Under the radar, American racing is doing big business with mostly European customers to enable fixed odds betting. A representative of one major European bookmaker told TIF that the annual market for U.S. racing at fixed odds to only European customers, almost exclusively enabled by the XB-Net sale of signals, is more than $1.4 billion, or the equivalent of nearly 13 percent of all pari-mutuel wagering on U.S. races in 2020.

Another bookmaker told TIF that at the height of the pandemic-related shutdowns, European bookmakers were handling the equivalent of between $690,000 and $1.38 million per race at Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma, far outpacing the pari-mutuel totals recorded from America's own domestic customers on those races in what was, undoubtedly, an unusual period.

But over the long term, the foreign fixed-odds business on American racing continues to grow.

One track executive, who requested anonymity, told TIF that his track had experienced a 500% increase in revenue from these international fixed odds agreements over the last six years.

Lay betting on American racing – that is betting on a horse to lose – is also available via exchanges like Betfair.

Across races three through five at Aqueduct on Thursday, February 25, 2021, the pari-mutuel win pools totaled a combined $343,344. But those with access to the European-based Betfair exchange were trading the race too, with more than a combined $70,000 matched, roughly 20% of the pari-mutuel win pool on the races.

As referenced in previous installments, the monitoring of wagering in foreign jurisdictions has traditionally identified suspicious activity on such exchanges. If North America is doing this, they are doing so without any public acknowledgement.

MONITORING ALL WAGERING MARKETS

In Hong Kong, although its own business is exclusively pari-mutuel, the choice is clear: it needs to monitor all betting markets where its racing is offered. Measures to monitor legal, gray and illegal markets were key in their 2018 actions against jockey Nash Rawiller, leading to a 15-month ban and his expulsion from riding there.

The South China Morning Post captured the insight of HKJC Chief Executive Officer Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges in the aftermath of the Rawiller ban.

“The Jockey Club has developed technology to gather data for illegal gambling sites and employs a stipendiary steward whose job is to watch for suspicious betting patterns. People should know we have an extremely vigorous system and that we can uncover things that perhaps others can't…

“We monitor markets, both legal and illegal, in Hong Kong and around the world, and we have a dedicated team that does that. We can use the data we find to be more specific in investigations and we identified this as a significant case. The analysis we do of markets, both legal and those overseas, helped us identify a pattern. We had sufficient evidence we could start the investigation.”

In contrast to Hong Kong, American racing lacks proper oversight of its wagering systems and has little transparency on incidents involving the integrity of racing through wagering.

How can American regulators police illegal markets if it has negligible control over the legal market?

The enormity of the challenge should not render it unconquerable.

Americans are betting through unregulated operators beyond its shores. While some of these platforms may be licensed by some jurisdiction, they are not legal for Americans to transfer and receive funds and they do not share information with regulators about incidents which may threaten the integrity of racing.

These sites exist not only because they enrich those who run them, but in some cases, for more nefarious reasons. Regardless, they offer customers opportunities to wager in relative anonymity beyond the reach of regulators.

Several prominent American horse owners have boasted about their play through such channels. Another illicit betting platform is using familiar, credentialed racing writers to create unique content in the hopes of attracting more Americans to wager.

At one point in time, there was hope that America could learn more about international markets which were betting on U.S. racing, some through legal arrangements and others illicitly.

In the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's 2005 publication of its strategic plan of work for the next five years (2006-2010), it detailed the need for the NTRA to work with the international racing community to understand the role of illicit betting operators, while also interacting with law enforcement to pursue avenues to curtail U.S. citizens betting on U.S. races outside the legal markets. Establishing relationships with licensed operators to share information was a goal.

After much research, TIF concludes this never materialized.

Coming Thursday, May 13: Part 10 – Grey

Miss a previous installment? Click on the links to read more.

Part 1 – Expectations

Part 2 – Intertwined

Part 3 – Volponi

Part 4 – Confidence

Part 5 – Bingo

Part 6 – Proof

Part 7 – Z

Part 8 – Damage

Want to share your insights with TIF? Email us here.

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“Wagering Insecurity” – Part 7 – Z

   This is Part 7 of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation's (TIF) series “Wagering Insecurity.”

   Faced with remarkable competitive pressure from the rise of legal sports betting, horse racing is at a crossroads.

   Confidence amongst horseplayers and horse owners is essential to the future sustainability of the sport. Efforts to improve the greater North American Thoroughbred industry will fall flat if its stakeholders fail to secure a foundation of integrity, along with increased transparency of the wagering business and its participants over time. Achieving this is growing increasingly difficult after the sport has neglected its core base–horseplayers–for decades.

   “Wagering Insecurity” details some of that neglect, and the need to embrace serious reform. Fortunately, there are examples across the racing world to follow.

Transparent oversight of racing has been defunded over decades and customer protection remains weak. North American Thoroughbred racing in the 2020s is saddled with a regulatory infrastructure designed for a sport in the 1970s.

Racing has to change.

Ten years ago, Jockey Club research conducted by McKinsey showed that a minority of racing fans, just 46% of those surveyed, said that they would recommend the sport to others.

“Thoroughbred fans are almost twice as likely to recommend baseball (81%), football (73%), or basketball (77%) to others as they are to recommend Thoroughbred racing.”

There are many reasons for racing's waning appeal among its own fans but the gambling experience is certainly a key one.

Simply getting more eyes on racing is not going to be enough to sustain interest amongst future generations.

While many of racing's existing American customers have long been accustomed to a sport with substandard, haphazard and insufficient oversight, the next generation might not be as forgiving. A 2019 piece by Julie Arbit, Global Senior Vice President, Insights at VICE Media Group, highlighted this burgeoning need among Generation Z, whose oldest members are now in their mid-20s.

“Gen Z is coming of age in a world of infinite choice, and this affects everything from how they define themselves to how they love and how they buy..”

For the complete article, click here.

The post “Wagering Insecurity” – Part 7 – Z appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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