This Side Up | Horse Racing Free Tips

This Side Up: For This Road, The ‘Knight’ Will Need Armor

No matter where you start from, the choice on Saturday is the same for everyone: do you head southeast, or Southwest? Okay, if you happen to be in Key West, you'll uniquely have to head a little way north to join the party in Miami. For many of us, however, the compass needle will instead be quivering towards to the GIII Southwest S.

The big bucks are obviously at Gulfstream. But it tells you plenty about the inside-out values of this business that even a prize exceeded in the U.S. by a single other race would not quite fund the docket signed on behalf of Zedan Racing Stables, up the road at OBS last April, for a son of Uncle Mo. And it's in Hot Springs that we'll start to find out whether even those giddy stakes might yet yield a dividend.

Now, anyone who spends as much as $2.3 million on a colt that has clocked :9 4/5 under tack will typically do so in the hope of putting him right where we find 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight now–as the current No. 1 in colleague T.D. Thornton's GI Kentucky Derby “Top 12”. As things stand, however, his trainer remains ineligible to bank the 20 starting points available to the winner of this race. And there's a curveball, this time, in that any Derby candidate in the Bob Baffert barn must move out by the end of February. That's over a month earlier than when Baffert had to send out his refugees last year.

With his lawyers trying to break those chains next week, we can leave for another day what has for everyone become a rather wearisome sub-plot. For now, it will be compelling simply to see how Arabian Knight responds to some talented and rather more seasoned opposition, having presumably learned little in outclassing a field of maidens at Keeneland. It's obviously encouraging that his closest pursuer that day has done so well since; and we saw, last year, how adeptly Baffert educated another expensive 2-year-old purchase for the same owners, Taiba (Gun Runner), so that he could win the GI Santa Anita Derby for his new trainer, with only a similarly undemanding debut behind him.

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True, the first Saturday in May still came too soon for Taiba. Arabian Knight, however, is miles ahead of that curve and he's going to learn plenty from this whole experience, however it plays out, after boarding a plane to run a second turn for the first time. Unsurprisingly, he has been laying a foundation of powerful works back in California, but he must square up to a rival in Corona Bolt (Bolt d'Oro) who has, despite a rather upright head carriage, looked extremely fast and professional in two sprints.

If these two instinctive talents are likely to resemble sparkling new sabres, sending sparks flying until one is finally forced clattering onto the floor, then they need to keep Corona Bolt's barnmate Jace's Road (Quality Road) in the corner of their eye. For here is a rival who knows the difference between a mere duel and a pitched battle; one who's been learning self-defense and strategy at the marine training camp.

Yes, he too flashed raw talent with a 'Rising Star' sprint debut. But it was as long ago as September that he started on the kind of life lessons that still await Arabian Knight. Sampling the Derby surface in the GIII Iroquois S., he got drawn into pursuit of a couple that turned out merely to be hauling each other to the ground. But whereas they dropped out accordingly, Jace's Road bravely renewed battle with the closers and grabbed a place.

After that chastening rite of passage, his next start made it possible to wonder which way Jace's Road was going: his whole demeanor was irritable, and his mood cannot have improved as he trailed home splattered in slop. But then came the Gun Runner S., over the same course as this race, and suddenly he had it all figured out. He broke sharply, went bounding along in the lead and opened up late for a decisive score.

Brad Cox, who additionally saddles Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) here, has an absolute cavalry to sieve down on the Classic trail. Last weekend he saddled Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) for that efficient score in the GIII Lecomte S., as well as two fillies that finished over a dozen lengths clear of the rest in the Oaks trial. It feels very much as though Cox has now entered upon an even more potent cycle, after his four winners at the 2020 Breeders' Cup invited all the top programs to conclude that if they couldn't beat him, they may as well join him.

Instant Coffee runs in the same silks as Cyberknife, who gets the chance to stage his very own, flesh-and-blood stallion promotion in the Pegasus. Knowing Spendthrift, he's likely to enjoy a heroically lascivious lifestyle over the coming months. If only somebody could get him to understand the situation, he'd be the bet of all time.

Actually, I suppose the chances are that he's already operating on some primal sense of the benefits reserved for the herd leader. Anyway, be that as it may, this will be Cyberknife's 11th start in 13 months since he broke his maiden, so he evidently has the hardware to have sustained another campaign on the track. But we all recognize that he stands to make much more in his second career than in his first, even if he tops up an account already through $2 million by winning the Pegasus.

Certainly Cyberknife has achieved as much as anyone could dare to hope in spending $400,000 for a Saratoga yearling. But while everyone involved will thank him for his sterling service, and will miss him once he has moved on, the reality is that Instant Coffee–while not yet half the racehorse–has already supplanted Cyberknife in the attention of most.

For the Eclipse Awards are all on the mantlepiece now, and even Flightline's only job is to nourish a new dream. And, actually, that's great. Because it's the next dream that will always refresh our appetite for the game; that will have all those mares waiting in line at Spendthrift.

It's this mutual stimulus between racing and breeding, between track and field, that maintains human passion as the driver of the billions invested, not just in our industry, but in our sport. That's why someone will give $2.3 million for a horse bought a few months earlier for $250,000; and also why a fellow can get it into his head, after a fairly random visit to the Bluegrass, to buy himself a horse farm and populate it with a few mares. That's how Corser Thoroughbreds came to buy a young mare by Astrology at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, carrying a first foal by Uncle Mo, for $285,000. That foal is Arabian Knight.

So the end of one chapter for Cyberknife will only open a new one. Who knows? Perhaps there's another novice breeder out there, who will end up putting a colt by Cyberknife on the 2027 Derby trail. And if we'll all be older then, and probably no wiser, then those are the kind of dreams–endlessly repeated, ever revitalized–that also keep us young.

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This Side Up: Lecomte Starts a New Cycle

And so we begin anew. The GIII Lecomte S. always warms the heart: it's like noticing the first buds on the bare trees, as the quiet midwinter promise–familiar, expected, miraculous–of another spring to come.

In trees, each new cycle is nourished by past decay: by roots extending into soil enriched by the leaves discarded at the end of the previous one. And actually it's not dissimilar with selective breeding, so that each generation can recycle its speed, stamina, beauty, bravery.

The world may be a very different place, on and off the track, from the days when Lecomte, the 1850s Louisiana legend honored by this race, was defying the great Lexington in four-mile heats at the old Metairie racecourse in New Orleans. Lecomte, indeed, was both trained and ridden by African Americans who had been purchasable chattels, as you can read in this marvelous story by Kellie Reilly of Brisnet.

Listen to Chris McGrath read this edition of This Side Up.

But if the demands made of modern racehorses are wildly different, I still find it apt that if you go far enough back in the pedigree of the colt to beat on Saturday, Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro), you come to the principal legacy of Lecomte himself.

Louisiana plantation owner Thomas Jefferson Wells had bred Lecomte from a mare named Reel, whose importance to the evolving American breed was only one instance of the transatlantic distaff influence of her exported British sire Glencoe.

Though Lecomte died in a failed adventure to Britain, luckily Wells had first had him cover a handful of mares. One of his daughters was registered, in a fashion that had once been very common, simply as “Lecomte Mare.” Remarkably, she was mated with Lecomte's half-brother by his old rival Lexington. Bear in mind that Lecomte and Lexington were both sons of Boston; that the mare's second dam was by Reel's sire Glencoe; and that her fourth was Reel's mother! Few modern breeders, it is safe to say, would dare to entertain such genetic saturation.

Yet the result of this match, Lizzie G., ties together the ancestry of many great horses. One of her daughters, for instance, produced the iconic Domino; a rather longer line would eventually lead to Affirmed; and, yes, a still more attenuated one brings us to Follow No One (Uncle Mo), the dam of Instant Coffee.

These are clearly all scrolls of parchment, too faded to have the remotest bearing on Instant Coffee's competence for the tasks he could face this spring. But these are the old leaves that nourish the genetic subsoil–and, to me, this little tangent just adds a piquant extra flavor to Instant Coffee happening to line up for the Lecomte.

After all, each of these horses entwine so many different strands: through a trainer or owner or breeding program, for instance, and the things we feel they stand for; or through more peripheral associations, such as the fact that Follow No One was named by Alpine ski racer Lindsey Vonn. She had a commercial partnership with Under Armour, the sportswear company founded by Kevin Plank–whose noble attempt to revive Sagamore Farm as a force on the Turf encompassed Follow No One's racing career. And, now that the mare is on the Upson Downs Farm of Churchill chairman Alex Rankin, there's scope for another colorful thread to be woven into the great Derby tapestry.

And that's just one horse, in one trial. There are 23 futures options entered across five tracks just on Saturday, and so many others to be sieved down over the coming weeks to that final field of 20. Each will have a sentimental cargo of its own, associations that will inspire (or discourage) the allegiance of neutrals.

Down in Louisiana, meanwhile, they can claim a collective stake in the entire Lecomte field, as potential heirs to the 2019 Derby and Preakness winners, the 2021 Derby winner and the 2022 Derby runner-up, who all contested this race, GII Risen Star and GII Louisiana Derby–with the exception of Country House (Lookin At Lucky), who missed this first leg (in order to break his maiden at Gulfstream).

The Fair Grounds rehearsals have been achieving edifying new relevance since their extension in distance. To me, that represents a small but useful redress of the renunciation by modern trainers of the way their predecessors put such a deep foundation of experience and condition into their Classic horses. The old school never minded seeing two-turn horses beaten in sprints, early in the year, because they would gain in fitness and seasoning without ever forcing the engine anywhere near its maximum revs. But now that horses have to tiptoe to Churchill in May, the least they can do is get some mileage. Last year, remember, both Epicenter (Not This Time) and Cyberknife (Gun Runner) were beaten in the Lecomte, but each used that reverse as a springboard to reach the elite of the crop.

There will, no doubt, be other local horses entering the picture. Banishing (Ghostzapper), for instance, will have a spectral presence in the Lecomte, on the clock, after an excursion over the same distance earlier on the card. In breaking his maiden here by eight and a half lengths on Boxing Day, he clocked a marginally faster time than did the winner of the Gun Runner S. With Loggins yet to return to the worktab, it would be heartening if Ghostzapper could reinforce his quest for the Classic success that for now feels like an incongruous omission in the resumé of one of the greats.

The people standing Bolt d'Oro, meanwhile, are similarly not dependent solely on Instant Coffee to maintain his flying start. The champion freshman also has Itzos, half-brother to none other than Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro), heading to Turfway after scratching from the Lecomte. He contests a race in which a horse named Rich Strike (Keen Ice) ran a negligible third last year.

So Saturday is only one early step on a long road. Instant Coffee's barnmate Zozos (Munnings) could certainly tell him a thing or two as they're being groomed for their respective races. He chased home Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby last year, before helping to set up the meltdown for Rich Strike at Churchill. But he then disappeared until a stylish resumption last month, and now explores his remaining potential against the thriving Happy American (Runhappy) in the GIII Louisiana S.

The latter represents the same team as Bell's The One (Majesticperfection), brilliantly trained by Neil Pessin to win $2 million before her retirement last fall. She has left a tough void in a barn that mustered no more than 88 starters in 2022, but in this era of “super trainers” with cavalries spread across time zones, a seasoned horseman like Pessin–reliably undiminished in endeavor, skill and passion–still only needs an adequate stone for his sling to cut those Goliaths down to size.

To be fair, that's pretty much what happened in the last Derby. True, I doubt whether a single handicapper would have come up with the right exacta if told by a time traveler, this weekend last year, that they had just seen both the required horses beaten. But we know that the next ones will be out there somewhere, once again; that on those cold stark trees, it's time to look for the first buds.

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This Side Up: Style And Substance To Light Up Cigar

Strictly, it's the very reverse of what he's doing—which is actually to revert from two turns to one. In a sense, however, the return of Zandon (Upstart) to Aqueduct on Saturday will bring things full circle.

For it was on the equivalent card last year that he began what has turned into a pretty frustrating sequence of races where, for one reason or another, he arguably hasn't quite realized his full potential. When you consider that these include the GI Kentucky Derby itself, that shows how much raw ability he has. Just as well, then, that some of us find Thoroughbreds a sufficient enigma to feel little need to bet on them, too. Because by this stage he's beginning to feel like one of those horses you follow over a cliff.

On his last visit to Aqueduct, for the GII Remsen S., we were obliged with a culprit; practically a pantomime villain. To be thwarted by just a nose, despite the antics of Irad Ortiz Jr. on Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), suggested that Zandon had all the attitude necessary to make the most of his talent.

Despite the lamentable abbreviation of his career, the winner that day would return to New York to beat the subsequent GI Preakness S. winner in the GII Wood Memorial S. and then take the city's own Classic. Yet Zandon has meanwhile teased his admirers with just that one day when everything came together, in the GI Blue Grass S.

What felt especially vexing in the Derby was that he should, in principle, have been ideally suited by the notorious pace meltdown that summoned Rich Strike (Keen Ice) to our startled attention. As it was, he cruised into contention on the turn only to falter almost perceptibly, though still classy enough to take third. And he has since only elaborated an impression that his closing style will always require a pretty specific scenario actually to restore him to the winner's circle.

In fairness, even as things stand Zandon unmistakably belongs among the elite of the crop, having never once sought sanctuary from the white heat of competition. In the circumstances, however, the return to a single turn for the first time since his debut looks a pretty pointed call, just a week after the option of the GI Clark H.

I always feel that a one-turn mile is not just a very specific metier, but one especially instructive of that elusive grail: equilibrium between speed and stamina. A two-turn mile is more about “turn” than “mile”, diverting energy to the switching of leads and redistribution of weight. One turn, in contrast, must be accomplished more or less on one breath, and duly showcases the kind of pulmonary capacity that makes the GI Met Mile such a trusted signpost to stallion potential. If you think back to the way an inveterate closer like Honor Code (A.P. Indy) responded to the demands of that race, perhaps the Cigar will similarly set up for Zandon to release his “slingshot” in time.

But oh dear, what's this? Who should be waiting for him, in this first meeting with older horses, but the ultimate counterfoil to his rather finicky profile? Can even Zandon's biggest fans find it in their hearts to hope that Mind Control (Stay Thirsty) is beaten on the final start of such an exemplary career?

Connections will apparently announce Mind Control's stud destination over the coming days. King For A Day (Uncle Mo), his dam's half-brother, has been warmly received in New York but make no mistake, Mind Control offers the kind of genetic teak that should be welcome anywhere, the Bluegrass included. People will quibble over his damsire, but they don't have an issue with another forgettable son of Storm Cat, Yankee Gentleman, behind American Pharoah; and how marvelous, if Bernardini's growing distaff legacy could be complemented by a viable male line through Mind Control's sire Stay Thirsty.

One way or another, the package has worked to splendid effect in Mind Control—a 10-time stakes scorer who could take his earnings past $2 million in this, the 29th start of his career. Here's a GI Hopeful S. winner who has held his form through FIVE seasons, keeping one generation honest after another. No easy pickings when you drop in class with this guy around, as Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) could attest after their Grade III encounter at Monmouth this summer; or Silver State (Hard Spun), equally, in a Listed race at Parx last year.

Mind Control | Sarah Andrew

The bad news for Zandon is that Mind Control has demonstrated a particular affinity for this environment. In five career starts at a mile, he has four wins and a second; while his overall Aqueduct record reads 4-2-1. Having twice won Grade Is at Saratoga over seven furlongs, he sets a formidable standard for the glossy sophomore experimenting with a new trip.

But you know what, the differences between the pair—greyhound versus bulldog, Spitfire versus Lancaster—only makes me appreciate them both more. It's the way these Thoroughbreds hold the mirror up to life, after all, that make them so captivating. In persevering stubbornly with Zandon, I suppose I'm showing a weakness for the kind of flair that meets the challenges of life in a fashion that itself gives extra color and value to existence. But Mind Control, equally, reminds me that I wouldn't just want charisma from the guy next to me in the trenches.

So let's just hope that these contrasts, in this race, operate as the sticks and stones to spark up a fire against the advancing winter; and that Zandon can lay down some kind of marker for his elevation, with maturity, through a handicap division depleted by numerous retirements.

Between them, Zandon and Mo Donegal have at least renewed the luster of the Remsen. This time round, that race will be monitored with anguished attention by the three farms standing the neck-and-neck protagonists for the freshman sires' championship. After Bolt d'Oro seized the initiative last weekend, both Good Magic and Justify field candidates to fight back here.

You have to go back 27 years to Thunder Gulch to find the last Remsen winner to add the Derby, albeit Go For Gin had done the double only the previous year. But in an era when trainers are so reluctant to give Triple Crown horses an old-fashioned grounding, a ninth furlong before Christmas surely comes at a premium.

Whether in the way they are campaigned, or the way they are bred, Classic racehorses need a foundation. It's wrong to think of “blue collar” virtues as somehow alien to the true “blueblood”. We don't just need the flamboyance of Zandon, nor only the mettle of Mind Control. Much as with the one-turn mile that draws them together, we need the best of both worlds.

Hopefully Zandon's story still has a long way to go. In the meantime, how timely that Red Oak Stable gives a debut, at Tampa Bay not 10 minutes before the Cigar Mile, to Mind Control's little sister by Candy Ride (Arg). If she is made of the same stuff as Mind Control, then she'll have exactly what the rest of us should all be seeking. As Clint Eastwood's Preacher put it, at the end of another memorable showdown in Pale Rider: “Nothing like a nice piece of hickory.”

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This Side Up: A Game of Accident and Design

We can harness Thoroughbreds to our best and worst, to our altruism or avarice–but thankfully we will never alter the essential, inherent wonder of the breed, nor maintain the illusion that we are ever truly in control of its destiny.

There's a genuine possibility, this weekend, that a German colt could elevate himself to the top of the global sophomore crop by winning the G1 Japan Cup. Yet Tünnes (Ger) (Guiliani {Ire}) was a wholly inadvertent acquisition at the Baden-Baden yearling sales, his purchaser having dropped out at €20,000 only to discover that he had persevered, unwittingly, to the fall of the hammer at €38,000, by the gesticulations accompanying his cell phone conversation.

You could seek no better example of the way horses confound our best-laid calculations, whether for good or ill. In this game, your bad luck will frequently turn out to be good luck; and vice versa. And that defining mystery will always abide, no matter how (or with what motives) we manipulate the nobility of the equine spirit.

Now, as it happens, this same colt also offers to substantiate the mirage of coherence so teasingly within reach of those of us who owe our livelihoods to this business. While his breeder owns but a single mare, she has famously also produced an Arc winner; while Tünnes is inbred as close as 3×3 to a half-sister to Urban Sea (Miswaki) herself.

On one level, then, here's a horse that can make sense of the great puzzle. We can be like the fellow who notoriously telegraphed from the casino at Monte Carlo: “System working well, send more money.”

Yet while this particular family belongs to perhaps the most precious seam of the entire European gene pool, still the market persists not only in undervaluing the kind of ore preserved by the strictures on German breeding, but in prizing its shallow opposites.

The German guarantee of soundness and stamina, through stallions that stand consecutive seasons of training without medication, has a moral equivalence with the Derby as a historic platform for the kind of sires we should be using. This week, the most inspired a commercial breeder of all reiterated his faith in Epsom as “the complete test of the horse”. John Magnier affirmed that “a horse has to have everything to win” there: speed, stamina, soundness, courage and temperament.

Persian Force training at Keeneland earlier this month | Coady

Yet this was also the week when a relative novice to the game showed that he has quickly grasped the contrasting criteria of the commercial market, in Britain and Ireland at any rate, by retiring Persian Force (Ire) to stud as a 2-year-old. This colt, last seen finishing fourth at the Breeders' Cup, duly emulates his own sire Mehmas (Ire), who was similarly deemed to have proved everything necessary as a fast and precocious juvenile.

As I've often stressed, the Classic Thoroughbred actually retains far more commercial respect in the United States, where the ultimate objective is not speed alone but the robustness (and indeed stamina) to carry it through a second turn on the first Saturday in May.

This has never adequately penetrated the ignorance of today's European horsemen. But then why should Americans expect one prejudice to be renounced, while some of them remain so stubborn in reinforcing others? Their resistance to HISA, for instance, seems to have been brazenly coupled in the courtroom “wagering”, so to speak, with a quite extraneous ideological agenda.

Another way in which American horsemen seem determined to substantiate prejudice against their own product is in the commercial market's disdain for turf. For all the signs of progress here–in the purses at Kentucky Downs, for example, and growing investment at European auctions–the disrepair of some premier American tracks feels thoroughly discouraging. Evidently we can expect zero grass racing at Fair Grounds before Christmas, while the “weeds” at Churchill are equal to just one of the dozen races scheduled Saturday.

It's a fascinating card, all the same, exclusively contested by juveniles. After revisiting the legacy of Leslie's Lady in this space last week, it's poignant to see her final foal (by Kantharos: some distinction, dude!) make her debut in the fourth, while the final race features a seven-figure sibling to Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) by her sire's son Bolt d'Oro.

Instant Coffee on debut Sept. 3 at Saratoga | Sarah Andrew

That lad, of course, will treasure every available cent in what remains a remarkable race for the freshman sires' championship. The GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. could prove decisive, with two of the three protagonists prominently represented: Good Magic by Curly Jack, and Bolt d'Oro by Instant Coffee.

The road to the Kentucky Derby makes few other detours through its host track, and we saw with Rich Strike (Keen Ice) how important a proven relish for the surface can be. The first horse to win both this race and the Derby (1927-28) was Reigh Count, who was sent over the water as a 4-year-old to win the Coronation Cup over the Derby course, and run second in the Ascot Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles. (What was I was just saying about how the Europeans could use some dirt stamina?!)

With Count Fleet as his principal heir, Reigh Count proved a precious source of toughness and durability in the breed. However, the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby after a reconnaissance in this race at two, when finishing third, had been Behave Yourself seven years previously. It is said that Colonel Bradley eventually donated him as a cavalry sire, because he did not wish to contaminate the breed by replicating such an inferior specimen.

So there you have it. Even if horses will always remain agents of chaos, they will also tell us plenty about the kind of people who utilize their generosity–either for the good of the breed, as was contrastingly the case with both Reigh Count and Behave Yourself, or as a vehicle for their own cynicism or self-interest.

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