The Paddock | Horse Racing Free Tips

Del Mar Summer: Will Pacific Classic Be Coming-Out Party For 3-Year-Olds?

Saturday's 11-race program at Del Mar is as good as it gets for the racing fan and horseplayer, with full fields top to bottom and concluding with five graded stakes, three of them part of the Breeders' Cup Win and You're In Challenge Series.

The big one, of course, is the 33^rd running of the $1-million FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic, a Grade 1 event for 3-year-olds and up run at the American classic distance of a mile and a quarter. The winner gains automatic, fees-paid entry to the $6-million, G1 Breeders' Cup Classic, the headliner of the two-day world championships to be staged at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., just 110 miles north of Del Mar.

In addition to the full fields and expansive wagering menu, horseplayers are looking at a mandatory payout in the seaside track's 20-cent Pick 6, which had a jackpot of $348,523 going into Friday afternoon's eight-race card. If the jackpot is not hit on Friday (and Del Mar is offering a $1-million guarantee to a single ticket winner Friday), Saturday's Pick 6 pool will be huge.

The Pacific Classic is an intriguing puzzle without an overwhelming favorite. Three of the 11 runners entered are 3-year-olds, including 5-2 morning-line favorite, Geaux Rocket Ride, who comes off a G1 victory in the Haskell at Monmouth Park in July for trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith.

Three-year-olds have fared very well in the Pacific Classic, going back to the first running in 1991 when Best Pal beat older runners. In all, 15 sophomores have faced their elders in the Pacific Classic, with five wins and two seconds – most recently Shared Belief defeating fellow 3-year-old Taste of New York in 2014. The 3-year-olds carry 118 pounds, six pounds less than the 124 pounds for older horses, which at 1 1/4 miles can make a difference.

Eleven of the 32 Pacific Classic winners were betting favorites, and the same number scored front-end victories, with five winners forwardly placed, nine winning from mid-pack, and seven closing from far back.

Here's my assessment of this year's field, starting from the rail out.

Geaux Rocket Ride, 5-2 morning line odds. Candy Ride colt is lightly raced with three wins from four starts, but that sure wasn't a problem for Flightline, who was a perfect 4-for-4 going into the 2022 Pacific Classic and emerged with a spectacular 19 ¼-length win. Geaux Rocket Ride has early speed that Mike Smith can use to maintain good position, but the colt does not need the lead.

Katonah, 20-1. Claimed for $50,000 in November 2021, this gelding by Klimt missed all of 2022, but has come to life for Doug O'Neill this year, winning four of seven starts. This will be his class test as he has yet to contest a graded stakes.

Stilleto Boy, 8-1. Has managed to earn over $1.8 million despite winning only four of 23 starts. Has speed to get the early lead if no one else goes, but the only G1 victory for this 5-year-old by Shackleford came in the Santa Anita Handicap earlier this year from off the pace. Kent Desormeaux rides for Ed Moger Jr.

Tripoli, 20-1. John Sadler has won four of the last five runnings of the Pacific Classic, including the 2021 renewal with Tripoli, The Kitten's Joy 6-year-old has won just one of 12 starts since, and that was against softer company earlier this year at Golden Gate Fields.

Defunded, 4-1. Dialed In 5-year-old gelding is proven at the distance, and he's 2-for-6 at Del Mar, but he threw in a clunker for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Juan Hernandez last out in the G2 San Diego Handicap July 29. He ran poorly in the 2022 San Diego, too, but you can never count out Bob Baffert, who has won the Pacific Classic six times.

Order and Law, 30-1. Took awhile to come around for trainer Bob Hess Jr. after he claimed this 7-year-old by Violence in May 2022. He is coming off his best race for Hess, a victory in the G3 Cougar II going 1 ½ miles, but he's looking at a much tougher group here.

Slow Down Andy, 8-1. The Nyquist colt's biggest win came last year on turf in the G1 Del Mar Derby, but he was a good third to Cody's Wish last year in the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland and most recently was a hard-trying second to longshot Senor Buscador in the San Diego Handicap for trainer Doug O'Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez. Seems a serious threat, though he has yet to prove himself at the distance.

Senor Buscador, 10-1. If the main track is not favoring speed and the Pacific Classic fractions are fast, this son of Mineshaft will be rolling late for trainer Todd Fincher and jockey Geovanni Franco. He got the perfect set-up in the San Diego Handicap (half-mile fraction of :46.30 on a track that was kind to outside closers in the stretch).

Arabian Knight, 3-1. Uncle Mo colt was a pricey 2-year-old, costing Zedan Racing $2.3 million at the OBS April Sale in 2022. He comes in here with just three starts for trainer Bob Baffert, having gone to the sidelines in the winter after winning the G3 Southwest Stakes in the slop at Oaklawn. Baffert usually has his horses ready to run off layoffs, so his third-place finish behind Geaux Rocket Ride as the favorite in the Haskell was disappointing. Arabian Knight came into the year as one of Baffert's most promising 3-year-olds, so significant improvement is possible and the addition of Flavien Prat in the saddle is a major plus.

Piroli, 20-1. Gelded son of Battle of Midway has been managed conservatively by trainer Michael McCarthy, jumping into graded stakes just once in 14 starts. That was a solid runner-up effort to Defunded in the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita in May. Should improve off his comeback race in late July at Del Mar when fourth in allowance/optional claiming company.

Skinner, 10-1. Scratched due to a fever from the G1 Kentucky Derby after a near-miss in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, 3-year-old Curlin colt trained by John Shirreffs should benefit from his last start when second to Baffert-trained Reincarnate in the Los Alamitos Derby July 8. Has always appeared to be a horse whose best running will be at longer distances, though his female family leans toward sprinting. He's the only horse in the field with just one career victory. Skinner will be ridden for the first time by Hector Berrios.

Selections: Arabian Knight figures to ensure an honest pace, with Slow Down Andy, Geaux Rocket Ride, Stilleto Boy, and Defunded in close pursuit. I think the race will come down to a pair of 3-year-olds, with Skinner making a late run to give John Shirreffs his first Pacific Classic victory, and Geaux Rocket Ride hanging on for second ahead of Slow Down Andy in third.

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The Friday Show Presented By Woodbine: Talking Tapeta With Jim Lawson

Jim Lawson, CEO of Woodbine Entertainment, recommended to the company's board of directors in 2015 that the Toronto racetrack's main Polytrack surface be replaced with another all-weather synthetic material, Tapeta Footings. Eight years later, he is confident it was the right call.

Woodbine is one of the safest racetracks in North America, with 0.42 racing fatalities per 1,000 starts on the Tapeta surface in 2022, according to data from The Jockey Club's Equine Injury Database. That compares to an overall 2022 average of 1.25 fatalities per 1,000 starts on all racing surfaces in North America, and a 1.44 per 1,000 fatality rate on dirt tracks.

So far in 2023, Woodbine has seen two fatal injuries from roughly 4,500 starts. From about 14,000 timed workouts, Lawson said, there have only been two fatalities.

Those numbers compare favorably to national averages on traditional dirt surfaces, which have come under fire recently after the high-profile fatal injuries to budding stars Maple Leaf Mel and New York Thunder in Grade 1 races at Saratoga in August.

Lawson joins Ray Paulick and bloodstock editor Joe Nevills on this week's Friday Show to discuss the experience Woodbine has had with Tapeta. It's not perfect, Lawson said, with maintenance difficulties during hot and cold weather (something that occurs during Woodbine's long April to December meet). Overall, however, Lawson believes the Tapeta surface has been better for the horses and for Woodbine's bottom line.

Watch this week's episode of The Friday Show below:

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Letter To The Editor: Swing The Pendulum Back Toward Breeding For Soundness, Stamina

I would like to respond to Ryan Metzger's letter to the editor published in the Paulick Report on Aug. 28, 2023. As a former turf writer for United Press International and Bloomberg Sports, for which I covered the Kentucky Derby and many major racing events of the 1990s, I am like many others appalled and heartbroken by the recent deaths of Maple Leaf Mel and New York Thunder.

There are many variables as to why this is happening, seemingly so often, and so tragically that these injuries are increasingly catastrophic in nature. I would like to address what I believe are two of the most likely culprits that Mr. Metzger brought up in his letter. First, and I quote:

“Not putting horses who had career ending injuries on the racetrack into the gene pool…”

As I researched the pedigree of Maple Leaf Mel, I was struck by the similarities to Eight Belles, who broke down in a similar fashion at the end of her run in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Both fillies were inbred multiple times to Raise a Native, the brilliantly fast champion 2-year-old of 1963, who broke down in a front limb after four starts, and both descended from Unbridled's Song.

Eight Belles was inbred 3x to Raise a Native, Maple Leaf Mel 4x.

Raise a Native was a breed shaping stallion who is responsible for the great rivalry of son Alydar and grandson Affirmed. However, as we seek the brilliance of Raise a Native, we also need to be mindful of infusing stamina and soundness, as was done by the great racing and breeding families of the past.

To save the future of the sport we love, we would be wise to look to the past, when racing was at its best. The Pillars of the Turf we should not just visit at the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame, we should look to their guidance, their wisdom in breeding and racing, which gave millions of Americans so much joy in the 1940s, '50s, '60s, and '70s.

An example is Arthur B. Hancock and son Arthur “Bull” Hancock Jr. of Claiborne Farm. They both looked to European bloodlines to infuse stamina and soundness. The stallions they valued were often descended from European Classic winners or Classic winners themselves. The two Hancocks imported breed-shaping stallions Nasrullah and Blenheim II, stood Princequillo, and their breeding methods gave us Triple Crown winners and numerous Classic winners.

In stark contrast, today we value as stallions sprinters, brilliantly fast, too often unsound horses with abbreviated careers, while Classic winners like Sunday Silence and Empire Maker are sent overseas, usually to our regret. We are breeding horses with great hearts, but not providing them with the skeletons they need to carry their hearts around the track going at full tilt from the moment the gate opens.

Which brings me to another of Mr. Metzger's proposals:

“Running longer, safer distances …”

There is too much emphasis on speed in American racing. We are obsessed with blazing fractions and stakes and track records to the detriment of our beautiful and courageous equine athletes. A few years ago I took a Racing Europe trip to Ireland, where we watched the morning works at the Curragh with John Oxx, trainer of Epsom Derby and Arc de Triomphe winner Sea the Stars.

I noticed that Mr. Oxx was not holding a stopwatch. I asked him how he knew the times of the works. He responded (I paraphrase, but the spirit remains), “I don't know. I see how fit they are by how they are moving and how they come back. The time does not matter.”

Anyone who has watched racing in Europe knows that distance is valued over sprinting. The horses typically run the first several furlongs at an easy gallop, and are not asked for their best effort and maximum speed until the last few furlongs.

The contrast with American racing is stark. In the case of Maple Leaf Mel and New York Thunder, both horses were asked to run full out, at maximum effort, from the moment the gate opened for seven furlongs. Basic Physics states that Force = Mass x Acceleration. The force we ask these horses to exert on their limbs via Acceleration (a derivative of speed) during sprint races is enormous. The question should not be why does tragedy happen, but why doesn't it happen even more often?

If we want safer racing in America and less tragedy, there needs to be a shift away from speed to the European model of longer distances. Racing secretaries need to card more races over a mile. This is not my original idea. It was suggested by Eight Belles' breeder Robert Clay of Three Chimneys Farm, responding to criticism, in an article by Ray Paulick, special to ESPN.com, dated June 23, 2008:

“We breed for the market, and the market is demanding brilliance,” he said. “That's where we are in the cycle of history. We – American breeders at least – have probably cycled this industry too far to the speed and brilliance side and away from the stamina and durability side. This is a healthy debate. Maybe the breeders can now say, 'Let's move this back,' and racing secretaries will change how they write races, and the pendulum will swing the other way.”

In conclusion, I have loved horse racing since Seattle Slew mesmerized me as a little girl. I want it to succeed. But I was at the track Whitney day and Travers day, and I am having trouble watching it at the moment. I appeal to the folks in charge, that business as usual is not going to save the sport. We are losing fans, and every time a horse goes down, we lose more.

I overheard some gentlemen at the Saratoga select sale discussing Maple Leaf Mel, and the last thing I heard them say before they walked away was “nothing can be done.” Please assure all of us that love the Thoroughbred, that they are wrong. Before it all disappears.

— April Alfarano, New York

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If you would like to submit a letter to the editor, please write to info at paulickreport.com and include contact information where you may be reached if editorial staff have any questions.

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Letter To The Editor: One Horse Owner Is Getting Out Of The Game After Saratoga Breakdowns

I have been mesmerized by horses from a young age. I was fortunate enough to own three horses before I went off to college. From there I played polo, rode in the intercollegiate horse shows early years, and eventually became a veterinarian.

My first racing memory was Proud Clarion in the Derby, and Dancer's Image eventual disqualification for a drug I had no idea of its purpose until years later. I listened to Tom Durkin at Tampa Bay Downs before his rise to the top. I saw Al Hattab at Aqueduct at age 12 when my brothers snuck me into the track. Horses have been part of my life for 60 years.

Last Saturday has become a turning point for me. I own an OTTB, a sweet 11-year-old Tapit son as a result of my involvement with My Racehorse ownership.

As I age I have become more aware of my limits, and the limits of my horses. Any misstep or stumble and l instantly hope they, and I, are ok. I used to play polo full speed, jump cross country with abandon but that is now sadly fading.

After watching Maple Leaf Mel go down three weeks ago, and New York Thunder on Saturday, I can no longer stomach watching racing. The final bit was “the sound like a baseball bat” when New York Thunder's leg broke is my finish line.

I saw Gun Runner, Nyquist, Songbird, Forte, Mage but I am now letting go. They were not my horses but the pain they and all their people suffered reached me too. I have cared for thousands of animals in my 37 years as a vet, seen so many things. I can no longer bear to see another race.

I am selling my shares in my two 2-year-old fillies as I will not watch them be exposed. Both have already had knee surgery after starting their time as race prospects, with kind and knowledgeable people.

I looked up the pedigrees of a few of the recent war horses I'm aware of, and their breeding does reveal lesser known names than the most popular, inbred stallions. I'm scared to death for the Flightlines to come, as he only raced six times. I wonder why — was he was questionably unsound, needing longer to recover from the cumulative trauma his freakish speed imposed?

I lived in Florida, and watched the death of Greyhound racing. As someone both on the inside and outside of the horse world, I fear the same death is visible not too far down the road.

Money and tradition be damned.

Change or die.

How many more babies will our dirt tracks claim?

–Dr. Pamela Wood
Veterinarian, owner
Aiken, S.C.

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If you would like to submit a letter to the editor, please write to info at paulickreport.com and include contact information where you may be reached if editorial staff have any questions.

The post Letter To The Editor: One Horse Owner Is Getting Out Of The Game After Saratoga Breakdowns appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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