Dobson: This Was Not The Year For ‘Big Changes’ In Graded Stakes Program

There's usually lots of teeth gnashing when the American Graded Stakes Committee announces its changes each December, but this year's press release from the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association – the group that organizes the committee – was greeted with a collective yawn.

That's a good thing.

There have been years when historically significant races are given a harsh reality check with a downgrade (i.e., the Hopeful and Ruffian going from G1 to G2 in 2012, the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial from G1 to G2 in 2017, or the Vosburgh and Santa Anita Oaks from G1 to G2 in 2020). This was not one of those years.

The biggest change was the elevation of the Saratoga Derby Invitational to Grade 1 from ungraded for its third running in 2021. No races were downgraded from Grade 1 to Grade 2.

Everett Dobson, chairman of the committee, told the Paulick Report the consensus of the 11 members was to take a cautious approach when grading for the 2021 racing season because of how the coronavirus pandemic affected the racing schedule and both domestic and international travel for much of the year.

“We didn't feel this was the year to make big changes,” he said.

Dobson, who operates Cheyenne Stables and Candy Meadows Farm, pointed out that, while many races felt a negative impact from the pandemic, some tracks benefited when others were closed and forced to postpone or cancel some of their graded stakes.

The committee looks at the last five renewals of a race, so one good or bad year in terms of field quality will not make an overwhelming difference. But for those races that were run this year, the 2020 renewal will impact a race's average quality for the next five years and probably deserves an asterisk as the committee continues its work going forward in the next four grading sessions.

Also, according to TOBA's rules for the grading process, if a race “is substantially changed on the calendar (30 or more days), this will prompt a review and may result in a change of grade.” The committee can also change the grade of a race “if its distance is altered by more than one-eighth mile.”

I seriously doubt, however, if the Kentucky Derby or Preakness (moved by several months) or Belmont Stakes (shortened by three-eighths of a mile) were in danger of losing their Grade 1 status. Same goes for races that weren't run in 2020 because of the pandemic.

“If races have not been run in two successive years they are not eligible for grading,” said Dobson, adding this caveat: “This year, if a race was not run because of COVID, we gave them an extra year.”

While the committee used the same criteria that's been in place for many years (see end of this article for the TOBA Members Guide explanation), the pandemic did force the committee to work remotely via a two-day Zoom meeting instead of in person. As such, Dobson said, votes were done openly with a thumbs up or thumbs down whereas in the past they were done by secret ballot.

Additionally, just because some members of the committee are racing executives working for major tracks, Dobson said it would be wrong to conclude they vote in support of their own races when grade changes are under consideration.

“I can absolutely say they vote objectively,” Dobson said. “They work hard at understanding the big picture and do the best they can at leaving their biases at home when it comes to who they work for. They really help provide perspective. If a race looked particularly weak this time, what happened?

“In the case of New York,” Dobson continued, “some of their 2020 stakes races were weaker than they had been, but guess what? The Europeans couldn't ship over. Being able to understand from the racing secretary what was going on as we try to analyze a race is very valuable as we make our decisions.”

Beyond the nuts and bolts of grading races, Dobson said, the committee takes a 30,000-foot view of the entire program.

For example, in 1989, there were more than 83,000 races run annually in North America and 378 graded stakes. In 2019, there were 40,800 races and 450 graded stakes in the U.S. That's a 51% decline in races run but a 19% increase in the number of graded stakes.

“We spend a lot of time on that subject every year,” Dobson said. “We meet several times a year and that's always the No. 1 topic when we talk outside of the grading session. The first thing we did was analyze the foal crop. It is declining, but if you look at the numbers from The Jockey Club website, it's actually pretty stable in Kentucky (where the highest-quality foals are produced). Also, Kentucky-based stallions are now siring over 3,000 offspring foaled outside of Kentucky. Overall, the foal crop is down, but it's not a direct correlation as to quality. You have to dig a little deeper into what Kentucky is doing, and what New York and Florida are doing as far as quality. Despite that, we have brought down the number of graded stakes (from its peak).”

From TOBA Graded Stakes Members Guide: Information supplied to the members of the Graded Stakes Committee includes statistical data for the last five years for all eligible races indicating quality of the field based on 1) points assigned for best performance in unrestricted black type stakes (see Appendix A); 2) percentage of graded stakes winners in the field; 3) quality points achieved (see Appendix A) 4) the official charts of the five most recent renewals; 5) North American Rating Committee (NARC) Ratings; and 6) Thoro-Graph ratings. In addition, each renewal is identified by division, grade, distance, surface, purse, and number of starters. Members are expected to utilize this data, together with the knowledge drawn from their own experience, to make individual judgments as to the relative merit of the eligible races. Eight affirmative votes are required to upgrade any race and six affirmative votes are required to downgrade a race.

 

The post Dobson: This Was Not The Year For ‘Big Changes’ In Graded Stakes Program appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Morrison: Tribute To A War Horse And A Wake-Up Call

In his first four years of racing, New York-bred Hit It Once More was a multiple stakes winner of more than $550,000. Over the last two seasons, however, the 7-year-old son of Hard Spun was winless in 16 starts, with just a second-place finish to show as he steadily dropped down the class ladder, eventually winding up in state-bred claiming competition carrying a $25,000 tag.

On Dec. 19, Hit It Once More ran his last race, his 49th, suffering a catastrophic injury in deep stretch under jockey Luis Rodriguez Castro. The Equibase chart described the incident as follows: “HIT IT ONCE MORE … got put to coaxing at the three-eighths, went six to seven wide into upper stretch, was under light handling when bobbling heavily just outside the sixteenth pole, hobbled injured through to the finish the rider paused, then continued to gallop out a sixteenth past the wire before losing the rider then jogged off to the midway point on the clubhouse turn in distress before being apprehended by the outrider and was subsequently vanned off.”

Hit It Once More was later euthanized, the 21st horse to die from a racing injury this year at New York Racing Association tracks.

Jennifer Morrison, writing for the Canadian Thoroughbred, juxtaposed the death of Hit It Once More against the “tremendous gains (that) have been made in horse welfare awareness,” adding that “it is certain that the majority of horsepeople have deep love and respect for the racehorse.”

Morrison wrote that the FBI probe and federal indictments of trainers, veterinarians and others for doping violations earlier this year “have been a huge wake-up call to the industry that has struggled with public perception.”

Nevertheless, she wrote, “sad and avoidable incidents continue.

“It begins with owners and trainers,” Morrison wrote, “but racetracks and race offices and veterinarians and jockeys must wake up.”

Read more at Canadian Thoroughbred

 

The post Morrison: Tribute To A War Horse And A Wake-Up Call appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Making Claims: A Closing Argument To Put Awesome Again In The Hall Of Fame

In “Making Claims,” Paulick Report bloodstock editor Joe Nevills shares his opinions on the Thoroughbred industry from the breeding and sales arenas to the racing world and beyond.

From the centuries-old nurseries to the furthest-flung outposts, the goal of Thoroughbred breeding is to get a horse like Awesome Again – the kind of horse that secures a legacy for decades.

Awesome Again laid the foundation for over 20 years of high-level success for the Adena Springs operation as a runner and a stallion, and he provided one of the biggest victories in the storied career of owner Frank Stronach when he took the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic. Though he stood just 16 hands tall, the 26-year-old left a massive footprint on the breed, and a hole just as big when he died on Dec. 15.

It sure feels like Awesome Again should be in the National Museum of Racing's Hall of Fame, but he isn't. In fact, he's been eligible for 17 years, and he's still on the wrong side of the velvet rope.

Awesome Again's recent death has the Thoroughbred world reflecting on his life and accomplishments, which means this is as good a time as there's going to be to stage a “last stand,” and make one final case for putting a deserving horse in the Hall of Fame.

To be sure, Awesome Again suffered no shortage of acclaim over the course of his life. He was named to Canada's Hall of Fame in 2001, and the Ontario-bred's achievements were so great, he was given a Special Sovereign Award in 1998 when he didn't have enough starts in his home country to qualify for the regular run of Sovereign Awards. More than two decades after making his final start, he remains the highest-earning Canadian-born Thoroughbred of all-time, amassing earnings of more than $4.3 million.

To determine why Awesome Again belongs in the Hall of Fame, I have identified some of the factors that go into my own Hall of Fame selection process when the ballot comes in the mail (chiefly, sustained high-level success and dominance over his opponents), and some potential shortcomings on Awesome Again's resume that have apparently kept him out. Then, I examine “The Bar:” the horses in the Hall of Fame who are perceived to have the least acclaim in a given category while still getting enshrined; and I identify how Awesome Again meets or exceeds that standard.

Before we dive in, it's important to note that Hall of Fame credentials are based on racetrack performance, meaning Awesome Again's outstanding stallion career, and his role in maintaining Adena Springs' high standing in the business, cannot be taken into consideration. Since 1990, the only horses to claim both a Hall of Fame spot and the leading North American sire title were Alydar and A.P. Indy; both of which earned their spots in the pantheon for their on-track exploits.

With that out of the way, let's poke some holes in the case against Awesome Again's Hall of Fame bid.

Standard: Sustained Success
Perceived Weakness: Awesome Again didn't beat Grade 1 competition until age four.
The Bar: Lava Man and Waya

It's easy to argue that Awesome Again had a lopsided career over the course of his two seasons on the track. He was a perfect six-for-six as a 4-year-old, and he didn't have a Grade 1 victory during his sophomore campaign. That 3-year-old run included wins in the Queen's Plate and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes, compared with five graded wins the following season.

It's unusual for a Hall of Famer to get in without a Grade 1-caliber 3-year-old campaign, but it has been done. Lava Man didn't win his first graded stakes race until the middle of his 4-year-old season, while the French mare Waya, a 2019 inductee, didn't get her first Grade 1 triumph until the end of her 4-year-old season. Like Awesome Again, both horses went on to become top-shelf runners once they matured.

The Hall of Fame loves a precocious horse, but that's not the only way through the door.

Standard: Sustained Success
Perceived Weakness: Awesome Again only had one season at the highest level
The Bar: Dance Smartly, A.P. Indy, and Winning Colors

Awesome Again was a Queen's Plate winner and took home a Grade 2 victory at three, and it's fair to count that as supporting evidence for a Hall of Fame resume, but not the meat of it. His ascent to the top of the handicap division took place during his 4-year-old season, when he went a perfect six-for-six. Among those wins during his 1998 campaign were triumphs in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the G1 Whitney Handicap, the G2 Stephen Foster and Saratoga Breeders' Cup Handicaps, and the G3 Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap. Then, he retired, essentially leaving one season where he was a top threat.

One season at the very top of the mountain is admittedly pretty light for a Hall of Fame resume, but not entirely unheard of. Fellow Ontario-bred Dance Smartly was very good on her home turf at two, but she didn't hit her true ascent until age three when she won the Canadian Triple Crown and capped her season off with a Breeders' Cup Distaff score. She fell back to earth at four, and never won another graded stakes race.

Similarly, Winning Colors earned her first stakes victory in January of her sophomore season, and she never won another graded stakes race after she wowed in the Kentucky Derby, missing out in her next nine graded tries.

Just so we're not just picking on the fillies in this segment, consider A.P. Indy. His first graded stakes win came in the G1 Hollywood Futurity on Dec. 22 of his juvenile season. His run between that win and his Horse of the Year-clinching triumph in the 1992 Breeders' Cup Classic was remarkable, but it all happened within the span of less than 12 months.

If Awesome Again needed to stay competitive at the top for at least a calendar year, it's fair to start the clock with his third in the G1 Travers Stakes as a 3-year-old and run through his Breeders' Cup Classic score the following year, and that leaves his Queen's Plate and Jim Dandy out of the conversation. If one year at the top is enough, he's got it.

Standard: Sustained Success
Perceived Weakness: Awesome Again raced only 12 times
The Bar: 11 current Hall of Famers; Justify and American Pharoah in the near future

Yes, Awesome Again would be on the lower end of the spectrum among the Hall of Famers, a group that has eight members with 100 or more starts, led by 1899 Horse of the Year Imp with 171. However, he'd be far from the least experienced member of the group.

The great A.P. Indy made the cut with 11 starts. Ghostzapper, Awesome Again's greatest son, got the call to Saratoga Springs with the same number of starts.

The average is probably going to get even lower in the coming years, as Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify all but certainly get their invitations. American Pharoah retired with 11 career starts, while Justify raced just six times. If and when Justify gets the call, he will have the fewest starts of any Hall of Famer, usurping 1800s stars Lexington and Sir Archy with seven each.

Standard: Dominance Over Competition
Perceived Weakness: No Eclipse Awards
The Bar: Alydar, Lava Man, Lure, Best Pal, Ancient Title, etc.

Sometimes, an all-time great has the misfortune of being in the same division as another all-time great, and there are only so many year-end honors to go around. There are a lot of good horses in the Hall of Fame without Eclipse Awards on their mantles, and there are a lot of good horses who might never get in who have one or more on their resumes – even Horses of the Year. Having one always helps, but it's not a prerequisite.

While we're on the subject, it's worth noting that Awesome Again finished second in the voting to Skip Away – a horse he beat in the Breeders' Cup Classic – in the 1998 Horse of the Year voting.

To save us all some writing and reading, this answers the question “Was Awesome Again considered at any point to be the best horse in his division, if not the best horse in training?” At least 34 voters thought so in 1998. For at least his straight-arrow stretch drive in the Classic, they were absolutely right.

Standard: Dominance Over Competition
Perceived Weakness: He only has two Grade 1 wins
The Bar: Xtra Heat

This is one of the biggest factors keeping Awesome Again out of the Hall of Fame, and it's understandable. There are Grade 1 win machines out there who would get laughed out of the building if they were considered for this lofty spot. Even though one of those wins was in the Breeders' Cup Classic, two Grade 1 victories would put Awesome Again near the bottom of the list if he made it in the club – counting horses that ran after the modern graded stakes system was implemented, of course.

But he wouldn't be at the very bottom.

Xtra Heat, who earned the champion 3-year-old filly title in 2001, was enshrined in 2015 with just one Grade 1 win to her name – the 2001 Prioress Stakes.

Granted, there are some other factors to consider here. Xtra Heat won loads of other graded stakes races, and she got achingly close to Grade 1 glory elsewhere, including missing out by a half-length when she tested male competition in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. The mare more than earned her spot among the immortals, but if the bar to get in is one Grade 1 score, Awesome Again doubled it.

Standard: Dominance Over Competition
Perceived Weakness: Who did he beat?
The Bar: We don't need no stinking bar.

Here is a list of the horses Awesome Again beat in the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic alone:

– Hall of Famer and eventual 1998 Horse of the Year Skip Away
– Hall of Famer and dual classic winner Silver Charm
– Champion and Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop
– European champion Swain
– Argentine champion Gentlemen
– Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold
– Grade 1 winners Coronado's Quest and Arch

Of course, if we let horses into the Hall of Fame off a single victory, even if it's against an incredibly deep field on the biggest stage, we'd be celebrating the career of figurative Hall of Famer Arcangues, and then we'd have to re-examine the entire admission process. So, I've put together a tale of the tape to display just who Awesome Again beat over the course of his career:

– Two Hall of Famers (and he beat Silver Charm twice)
– Three Eclipse Award winners (and he beat Silver Charm twice)
– Three international champions
– Three U.S. classic winners (and he beat Silver Charm twice)
– One Canadian classic winner
– 13 Grade/Group 1 winners
– 31 total graded/group stakes winners

Only two horses in that distinguished group got their revenge and finished ahead of Awesome Again in races he didn't win: Grade 1 winners Behrens and Precocity.

That's a lot of winning crammed into 12 races.

Make no mistake, Awesome Again is a fringe Hall of Fame candidate. He wouldn't still be waiting on his call, and I wouldn't have to argue this hard, if he wasn't. Still, if we're looking at what makes a Hall of Famer, it's fair to say he's at least done the minimum to get over the line, based on the ones already on the other side.

It's time to finally lift the hook off the velvet rope and let Awesome Again into the Hall of Fame club. Let's take one more look and see if he's on the list.

The post Making Claims: A Closing Argument To Put Awesome Again In The Hall Of Fame appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Ask Ray: Christmas Cheer And The Return Of Comments To The Website

It's been just over a fortnight since our publisher, Ray Paulick, in a fit of pique suspended reader comments on all stories at the Paulick Report. We told him it wasn't going to go over very well, and when he urged readers in the last episode of Ask Ray to send their opinions about this new policy, you flooded his inbox.

Well done!

Most of the emails were constructive, even understanding. But the overwhelming majority landed on the same conclusion: please bring the comments back.

Ray is usually not a very good listener, but in this instance we are grateful that not only did he read every one of the emails received, he actually comprehended some of them.

So along with our best holiday greetings – Merry Christmas to those who celebrate – we are very happy to announce that we once again are permitting comments on all stories. The only difference: rather than reviewing comments after they are published and deleting those that were offensive or had personal attacks, all comments are going into a moderation queue prior to publication and will be approved as quickly as possible. Please understand that we have a small staff with other responsibilities and will get to comments as quickly as possible, but there will be a delay between the time you share your words of wisdom and when they are published.

With that, we hope for 2021 to be a year of good health and happiness and a return to the relative normalcy we all enjoyed before the coronavirus pandemic turned our world upside down last March.

In this newest episode of Ask Ray, our publisher explains why the decision was made to reinstate comments. But no matter what he says, it's because we all miss Tinky … whoever he or she is.

The post Ask Ray: Christmas Cheer And The Return Of Comments To The Website appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Verified by MonsterInsights