Letter To The Editor: Industry Reactions To New York Thunder Ring Hollow

When a national tragedy happens in the United States, in the moments after we are often met with a common phrase, “Now is not the time for politics. It is the time for thoughts and prayers.” Fast forward to a couple months to the next tragedy and the same utterance can be heard from the same folks in power. Cue the cycle and nothing ever feels like it gets done.

On Travers Day, I had a front row view of racing's most recent tragedy. New York Thunder, about to win his first Grade 1 as a sophomore, went down about a furlong from the finish line. It all at once went from a glorious coronation to a ghastly funeral. Metaphoric? Maybe. Tragic? 100%

But what will stick with me the most is the sound. It was like the crack of a bat at a baseball game. It was deafening. I looked to my father next to me. He wailed, he was in tears almost immediately. Others screamed. I walked up the steps. Pain was everywhere in the stands. Tears; moms being consoled by their own children. I'm not being hyperbolic.

Half an hour later, cue the quotes. “We have to do better. Condolences to the connections. We don't have the answers.”

An hour after that, a blanket of flowers was draped over a deserving Travers Champion in the winner's circle. The show goes on.

I think many will hear my sentiments and think, “This guy just wants to end racing! PETA plant!” The opposite is true. I want it to be my life. I want it to succeed. I want it to be as beautiful as I know it can be. And like many others in my generation whom I'll affectionately call Millennials, what we want is to be heard and what we want is actionable change. For we are in fact the future stakeholders in the sport. So where are the solutions from the current industry leaders?

I'm tired of the empty quotes. It feels as though I'm being handed the keys to a car that's about to break down and it's my problem now.

I am outspoken on Twitter (X? lol) about my need for changes and often highlight some of my ideas. Please feel free to read them and even critique them. In my opinion, I believe it starts with breeding horses who have proven themselves on the racetrack and ends with taking care of them to the fullest extent of which our technology allows.

StrideSafe is actionable change.

On-site PET Scans is actionable change.

Research money for cures for laminitis and other deadly diseases is actionable change.

Running longer, safer distances is actionable change.

Slowing breeze sales so 2-year-olds that are often not even really two years old aren't asked to go under 10 seconds for a crazy sale price is actionable change.

Testing race surfaces weekly is actionable change.

Not putting horses who had career ending injuries on the racetrack into the gene pool is actionable change.

What are some solutions you have? Where are the industry leaders' solutions? And why do I feel like there are some who want no change at all? Enough with the lip service and fear of backlash.

“You have to do better.”

–Ryan Metzger
Owner, breeder, member of NYTHA and NYTB
New York

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Casner: Synthetic Tracks Are Safer – Here’s Why

Horse racing is at a survival tipping point. The catastrophic breakdowns that continue to haunt our industry at all tracks racing on dirt is sickening.  The decisions that are made in the short term will determine whether horse racing can endure as we know it. The American public has no tolerance for what they perceive as a sport that is immersed in carnage.

The one decision that would be a major game changer and perhaps offer the potential salvation for the future of horse racing is to convert our racing surfaces to synthetic, beginning with our major tracks.

In the Jockey Club Equine Injury Database (EID) for the year 2022, injuries on dirt were 1.44 per 1,000 horse starts. Turf injuries were 0.99 per 1,000.  Injuries on synthetic were vastly diminished with 0.41 per 1000. This data shows that synthetic surfaces are 3.5 times safer than dirt and 2.2 times safer than turf. These statistics are compelling in showing the exponential safety of today's synthetic surfaces over dirt and turf.

The data is compelling but it doesn't tell “why” synthetic tracks are safer. In 2006, I chaired the shoeing committee for The Jockey Club Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit. We were tasked to examine the safety of toe grabs, which Dr. Sue Stover at the University of California-Davis had shown to significantly contribute to breakdowns. We employed sophisticated high-speed cameras with a closed group of nine horses provided by the jockey school Chris McCarron was leading to understand why toe grabs were contributing to breakdowns. We filmed hoof contact with the racing surface using a variety of shoes with varying toe grab lengths on dirt surfaces and on Keeneland's synthetic track.

The results were dramatic. What we learned was the effect of “slide” on the lower limb of the horse. With Queens plates, the front foot has an average slide on dirt of 3 ½ to 5 inches. The average slide on synthetic was 1 ½ inches. Slide is important to understand. It's the “give” in a horse's stride.

The increased length of slide on dirt causes two things to happen. First, it magnifies torque on a horse's lower limb.  If a horse “toes in” the limb incurs torque medially because of the increased forces on the outside of the hoof. If they toe out, then the torque is lateral with the increase forces on the inside of the foot. And when horses step in holes on a dirt track, the torque can go either way. This doesn't happen on synthetic tracks because of the shorter slide, which greatly diminishes torque. Also, a horse's foot is always landing flat on a synthetic surface as opposed to the cuppy holes that cover a dirt track. Synthetic also provides a much higher energy absorption than dirt with a higher energy return.

A synthetic track with its diminished slide provides a quicker “breakover” which reduces energy expenditure. This is why so many more horses are in the race at the head of the lane. The finishing field spread, first to last, on average goes from 30 lengths on dirt to 20 lengths on synthetic. And because of the diminished energy expenditure, average finishing times have become faster on all tracks that have converted to synthetic.

The second important factor that we were able to measure was the magnified load on the pastern that was presented on dirt. Because of the exaggerated slide and delayed break over on dirt, the pastern continues to load through the stride, increasing its drop by as much as an inch over synthetic.  We were also able to see this increased load when horses landed in the “holes” created on dirt tracks.

As you can visualize, the increased load or drop of the pastern creates excessive strains on the suspensory apparatus of the horse's lower limbs, stretching the “rubber bands” and  magnifying the opportunity for a catastrophic failure. When a horse blows out its suspensory apparatus in a race it leads to a broken leg in the next few strides.

Suspensory and tendon injuries are extremely rare on synthetic but occur way more frequently on dirt because of these magnified strains.

The videos also exposed how lethal toe grabs were on all surfaces. They were especially detrimental on synthetic because they abruptly stopped the foot not allowing any slide. This is why trainers were experiencing hind end and soft tissue injuries early on because they were continuing to use toe grabs on the rear feet.

Catastrophic breakdowns are rarely caused by one bad step although this is more likely on dirt. As most orthopedic surgeons will testify, they are the result of cumulative microscopic injuries that accrue with the thousands of steps a horse accumulates in training and racing. It's the law of physics. Excessive torque and loads on a horse's legs will eventually take its toll. Racing and training on synthetic surfaces greatly diminishes those strains and a horse's natural ability to remodel bone will have a better opportunity to repair and strengthen.

We not only have the irrefutable data over hundreds of thousands of horse starts on synthetic, but we have the notable success of several major tracks that have employed them.

The first is Keeneland. The last meet they ran on synthetic in 2014 was the most successful meet in Keeneland's history at that point. All-time attendance and handle records were set. There were record field sizes, minimal scratches with inclement weather when races were taken off turf. And most importantly, there were zero breakdowns!

Why did Keeneland reconvert to dirt? You need look no further than dirt stallions.

The second is Santa Anita. The last meet run at Santa Anita in 2010 had an injury rate of 0.59 per 1,000 starts. The following year, with dirt racing returned, the fatality rate was 2.94 per 1,000 starts, or five times higher.This is in spite of a poor quality installation that would not properly drain, eventually having a subsurface membrane failure allowing aggregate to float to the surface.

Here are some compelling stats from three tracks currently running on synthetic surfaces: Golden Gate Fields, Presque Isle Downs, and Gulfstream Park.

Golden Gate had an injury rate of 0.38 per 1,000  with 12,986 horse starts in 2021 and 2022 on their Tapeta Surfaces.

Presque Isle race meets in 2021/2022 had  0.24 injuries per 1,000 with 8,178 horse starts.

Gulfstream with its newly installed Tapeta track had the best record of all with only one fatal injury out of 7,085 horse starts with  0.14/1,000. This translates to a 9.7 times safer surface than their dirt track.

Belmont has recognized the advantages of having a synthetic surface with its scheduled completion in the spring of 2024.

Injuries on a national basis have dropped significantly at certain tracks since the implementation of intensified pre-race veterinary examinations of our horses and have the promise of continuing to diminish injuries with mandated requirements by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority.

This current high-level scrutiny of starters combined with the conversion to synthetic tracks will dramatically reduce injuries and show the world that we care.

Horse racing is a sport with a rich history of tradition. The thought of changing the racing surface of the Kentucky Derby to a synthetic surface will not appeal to those that value tradition above the safety of our horses and the survival of our beautiful sport. If we do not take drastic proven steps to significantly eliminate breakdowns we are destined for the fate of Greyhound racing. Today's public has no stomach or tolerance for what they perceive as abuse of our horses.

The “writing is on the wall,” or in our case in the New York Times, CNN, and the six o'clock news. We either quit wringing our hands and doing countless more dirt studies while ignoring the obvious, or we embrace innovative change supported by  data and the laws of physics for the safety of our horses and riders, or we are destined to continue our industry's slow and painful death.

Bill Casner is a longtime Thoroughbred owner and breeder

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Del Mar Summer: For Top Jockey Agent Craig O’Bryan, Retirement Can Wait

Second generation jockey agent Craig O'Bryan called it a career a few years back after representing some of the game's top riders for nearly a half century, including four Hall of Famers: Eddie Delahoussaye, Gary Stevens, Alex Solis, and Corey Nakatani. He grew up in the game as the son of the late George O'Bryan, who was agent for Manuel Ycaza, Laffit Pincay Jr., Johnny Adams and Don Pierce, among others. Craig O'Bryan's son Brandon is the third generation of the family to ply hid trade as an agent.

Midway through 2020, O'Bryan got a phone call from fellow agent Tom Knust about a rider who was looking to move south from Northern California. Knust was representing another Bay Area transplant, Abel Cedillo, who had a made a successful transition to Southern California. Knust had just added a second rider, 2017 Eclipse Award-winning apprentice Evin Roman, so he couldn't take on anyone else.

“Tom called and asked if I wanted to come out of retirement,” O'Bryan said. “My wife and I were traveling and having a  pretty good time, but I asked who the jockey was. When he told me Juan Hernandez, who I'd watched ride, I said, 'It's a done deal. Tell him to call me.'”

Hernandez hit the ground running, winning the Soi Phet Stakes aboard Galilean for John Sadler on his second day riding at the Los Alamitos meet in June 2020. He headed to Del Mar with momentum and wound up fourth in the summer meet standings behind Flavien Prat, Humberto Rispoli, and Cedillo.

Winner of four graded stakes prior to relocating to Southern California, Hernandez has added 68 graded stakes victories since, including a dozen Grade 1 races. He won his first Del Mar riding title in the 2021 fall meet, was the runaway leader last summer, and sits atop this year's standings with 27 wins from 105 mounts, a strike rate of 26 percent. He was the leader the last several meets at Santa Anita, including this winter-spring meet when he doubled up the number of wins on his closest competitors.

“He rides 25 percent or over no matter where he is,” O'Bryan said of Hernandez. “Up north he was winning at 30 percent. And when he got here, he was winning on longshots — he wasn't getting on 8-5 shots.”

O'Bryan said one of the reasons for the success the 31-year-old native of Veracruz, Mexico, has enjoyed is that “he's as good a person as he is a rider.”

There is no drama surrounding Hernandez. He goes about his business quietly and respectfully. As a rider, he doesn't seem to have a weakness, winning on dirt and turf, going short or long.

“Horses just run for him,” O'Bryan said. “Juan is really good out of the gate, he's a good finisher, and he rides a smart race. He knows the other horses and other jockeys. He's very cool and doesn't panic. He won't really get after a horse until inside the eighth pole.”

O'Bryan said a brief conversation with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert helped Hernandez get to the next level. “Baffert came to me last year and said, 'I want to get in the Juan Hernandez business.' I said, 'That won't be a problem.'”

Since then Hernandez has been aboard some of Baffert's best horses.

O'Bryan has seen a lot of changes in his profession since hebegan booking mounts for his first rider, Manny Ortiz, in 1972.

“We used to have to do everything on foot,” he said. “You didn't have telephones on the backside or frontside. You'd call a trainer at home and find out he's on his way to the track, so (fellow agent) Scotty McClellan and I would wait in the parking lot for trainers to arrive and ask if we can ride for them. Cell phones have changed all that. And we used to have to sit around the racing office for hours during entries. Now we all go home, do our thing and have a conference call, which is 100 times better.”

Now, on to the races.

By the Numbers

Don't want to sound like a broken record, but last week I wrote that the chalk parade continued in the fourth week of the summer meet. The abbreviated week five (with racing cancelled Aug. 20 because of the tropical storm) and first two days of week six continued that pattern. Of the 42 races run from Aug. 17-25,  there have been 19 winning favorites, 45.2 percent. For the meet, favorites have won at a 38.2 percent rate. The average payout during this last period is almost identical to the meet-to-date average, $12.61. Average field size for the meet is 8.9 horses per race.

The 42 races run from Aug. 17-25) were equally divided on dirt and turf. Interestingly, despite having nearly one more horse per race (8.6 vs. 7.7), the turf races have been more formful, with 11 winning favorites, 52.3 percent. Dirt races have been won by favorites 38 percent of the time.

After a period where speed dominated both on dirt and turf, the results have been more balanced recently, with horses seemingly able to win on the front end, while pressing the pace, in mid-pack, or closing from far back.

Who's hot?

After going 0-for-19  at the start of the meet, trainer Michael McCarthy has won six of his last 19. Peter Eurton is even hotter, winning with eight of his last 15 starters. Among riders, Antonio Fresu has snuck up the standings, with 18 wins from 111 mounts. He's won eight of his last 23, moving him to fourth behind Hernandez, Rispoli, and Hector Berrios.

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The Friday Show Presented By Woodbine: Answering Reader Questions With Gary Contessa

We're switching things up a bit on this week's episode of The Friday Show.

If you follow us on Instagram or subscribe to the Paulick Report Insider Patreon feed, you're familiar with our “Ask Me Anything” video series, where a member of our staff answers reader questions about horse racing, or whatever else passes through the inbox.

During a recent trip to Saratoga, we decided to get some members of the racing industry in on the action, including trainer Gary Contessa, who is never afraid to share his opinion.

Contessa has had a long career as a New York-based trainer and has campaigned Uncle Sigh, Rydilluc, Eightyfiveinafifty, Rite Moment and Sippican Harbor. He has spent time both as a private trainer and managing a public barn, is a breeder, and scouts yearlings and 2-year-olds at the sale. He's also president of The Exceller Fund, which facilitates aftercare for Thoroughbreds at risk of neglect or entry into the slaughter pipeline.

Contessa was so thorough with his answers to our readers' questions that we split it into a two-part video on our Patreon.

On this week's episode of The Friday Show, we'll share one of those parts, where Contessa discusses topics including how much it costs to keep a horse in training, how a new owner can find a “clean” trainer, and what the industry can do to lower the number of equine fatalities.

If you enjoyed this “Ask Me Anything” video and want to see more like it from Paulick Report staff and Thoroughbred industry members, become a subscriber to the Paulick Report Insider Patreon account by clicking here.

Watch this week's episode of The Friday Show below:

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