Rejected: 2023 Paulick Report Story Ideas That Didn’t Make The Cut

The end of the year is often a time for reflection. As the racing calendar winds down, the staff here at the Paulick Report sit down and begins plotting out editorial content for the new year – new subjects that merit our trademark investigative reporting, and new series that we hope will enlighten readers or brighten their day.  

In 2021, we let out some of our collective angst after the annual planning meeting by writing a satirical list of stories that you won't see in our pages, along with reasons they were rejected. We continued the tradition in 2022. The process of composing satire is so cathartic (and had such a good response from our readers) that we've decided to continue the tradition. Some of the rejected series ideas were completely fictional of course, but some were actually (briefly) (jokingly) discussed in some form or another. 

Mainstream Media Rebuttal: A weekly series finally putting into practice what so many people seem to believe – that it's our job to run point-by-point corrections to mainstream media coverage we did not do. The fact that the mainstream reporters/audiences will almost certainly not see such a series is, uh, not the point, somehow. Rejected because: With everything horse racing needs to worry about, whether 60 Minutes correctly designated betamethasone as “restricted” rather than “banned” is the least offensive mistake anyone has made in mainstream coverage of the sport's problems in a long, long time. This kind of correction would be the job of a public relations firm and not a trade publication anyway, and we're not interested in the job. It is, frankly, way too much work to serve as racing's public relations organization. Which is probably why no one – not the NTRA, and not The Jockey Club – has made a sustained effort to do it.

They Didn't Ask Me What I Thought! At last, a solution to the problem we've encountered since the passage of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act, which prompted alphabet soup groups we'd honestly forgotten about to complain their input hadn't been included in the rule construction process. Or that they hadn't been included enough. Whatever that means. Rejected because: This would be an endless loop of comments, responses to comments, and responses to responses. Besides, if you've ever read the Federal Trade Commission's printout of comments from these very groups on each set of proposed HISA rule changes, you'll have basically gotten the gist anyway. And probably a headache.

Horseplayers' Takeout Index: This one we really have talked about at different times through the years. Readers write to us periodically and ask us to pick up where the Horseplayers Association of North America left off some years ago and maintain a track-by-track list of takeout for different wagers. We'd love to see that list, too. Rejected because: As much as we would like to provide this service, many tracks are not inclined to provide this information to us when asked and there is no uniform disclosure requirement with state racing commissions that would enable us to glean this from public records requests, either. Much like the rebate deals offered to computer-assisted wagering teams, it's not in the best business interests of some entities to have this out there, because they must know it will compare unfavorably with some of their competition.

Who Props Up The Sport Today? We've had so many different groups (horseplayers, breeders, owners, tracks, etc.) claim to be the sole economic reason racing continues forth that it would be good to have consensus, if only for 24 hours at a time. We will create a Wheel of Fortune-style graphic to be virtually spun at the start of each day, with the selected group being designated the “most important” for that day's coverage. Rejected because: Just as there can only be one winner of a horse race (usually) there can only be one “most important” – despite all the aforementioned groups desperately wanting participation trophies. No one would be able to stand being left out, which would sort of suggest that the racing economy is a diverse ecosystem with equally-important parts, but what do we know?

Ye Olde Veterinary Techniques: If you've never picked up a century-old veterinary manual, you might find the contents astonishing and horrifying. As is true in human medicine, it's fascinating to see what early practitioners had right and what they got wrong back in the days before anybody knew any better. We once read a passage explaining that the best way to get medication in a horse was to mold the substance into a ball and slingshot it back into the horse's throat, which we can only assume was suggested by someone who never tried it. Rejected because: The late, great Denise Steffanus warned us that the trouble with this series idea is that some fool out there would actually try some of the concoctions or strategies that we would be writing about from a historical interest perspective, no matter how many “absolutely do not try this” disclaimers we added.

How To Breed For Durability: A how-to guide offering a once-and-for-all mandate on how to make the breed sounder, for every mare, every stallion, and every breeder. Rejected because: We strangely could not get pedigree or bloodstock experts to provide guidance on this. Everyone kept saying boring things like “Well, how are you measuring durability?” and “It really depends on the mare” and “You realize any breeding strategy takes generations to prove out, right?” How are we supposed to move ill-defined mountains in an instant without the aid of generalized advice? To Twitter!

I've Got The Cheater Right Here: In which we write a personality profile of every single trainer we've ever been told by an anonymous emailer is cheating in some undefined way. We'd include quotes from the would-be tipsters, which usually feature phrases like “Because I just know it!” or “Well, look at their statistics! It's obvious!” Rejected because: We do not have the resources to write about literally every licensee in this country who has ever won a horse race.

Did He Do 'Enough'? We ask a panel of randomly-chosen experts to review a horse's race record with his name and connections obscured and ask whether the male horse has “done enough” to either 1) be retired to the stud barn or 2) (if a gelding) to be retired to a new job. No one will actually consult with the connections to learn about the horse's soundness or training progress, because where would the fun be in doing any research before passing judgment? Rejected because: It seems the answer varies considerably by horse and emotion, and not by any hard and fast rules. Some hard-knocking geldings are heroes for running past the age of four, while others are considered desperate welfare cases if they're still running at five. Meanwhile, stud prospects never can (or do) seem to run enough to satisfy anybody; if they're successful enough that the insurance cost probably got prohibitive, they were retired “too soon” and if they kept running “long enough” it's because they're “not accomplished enough.” We worry the panelists could eventually become targets for social media trolling. And we're sure these horses' connections could tell you that that's no fun.

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Letter To The Editor: Incentivize Stamina In The Thoroughbred Breed

There has been a lot of talk on social media over the past few years about the weakening of the breed, how breeders are breeding for brilliance over durability, and how the emphasis on speed has led to a deterioration in stamina. While this conversation is as old as the Thoroughbred itself, social media makes it a lot easier for these ideas to be disseminated to those interested in the discourse, and thus easier for folks on all sides of the industry to give their thoughts on the matter.

The recent launch by Mike Repole of the National Thoroughbred Alliance has brought many concerns about the sport to the forefront, and I'd like to go ahead and throw my hat into the ring of public debate, as a longtime racing fan and student of the game whose livelihood as a bloodstock advisor depends on the continuation of the breed.

It's easy to say things like “X stallion shouldn't be breeding because he had soundness issues/only raced Y times/etc,” and “his owners should just geld him rather than letting him have hundreds of foals with these same issues.” It's easy to be frustrated that “the only thing that matters is getting a sales horse,” and complain that a one furlong breeze in March or April of a horse's 2-year-old season shouldn't be the most important eighth of a mile in their entire career. And there are very valid concerns behind these sentiments, but I don't find them to be particularly productive comments on their own. Telling people “don't do that” doesn't generally lead to a change in behavior: an alternative needs to be presented, and there needs to be a short-term reason for that alternative to be considered. Unfortunately, the long-term betterment of the breed doesn't pay this year's bills.

I and many others have long bemoaned the fact that the commercial market plays a huge role in breeding decisions. Unfortunately, as with most issues in the sport, the trend of breeding to sell isn't something that is readily changed. With foal crops steadily declining, the last thing the sport needs is to discourage breeders from breeding horses, and for many breeders, being able to sell their young stock is the only way to ensure their operation is sustainable. Whether we like it or not, the commercial market is going to continue to drive a large percentage of breeding decisions, especially at the highest levels of the sport. So, is there a way to encourage buyers to factor durability more heavily into their considerations? I believe there is.

The commercial market relies heavily on nick ratings such as TrueNicks to determine the appeal of a particular mating. What if there were a similarly easy-to-digest rating for soundness, something akin to a durability index? Even better, what if horses above a certain durability index rating were eligible for purse bonuses? What if, similar to programs such as the Virginia-Certified program, there was a set amount of money to be dispersed to horses who were certified by this durability index to be bred to a certain “breed improvement” standard that factored in things like the class, number of lifetime starts by the sire and dam, and the performance of their offspring by metrics such as percentage of starters and number of starts?

In my vision of this hypothetical program, the breeder pays a small fee to certify the horse, which is then given a letter grade (or perhaps a simple pass/fail rating) based on a standard that remains dynamic and is reviewed on a regular basis. This certification could be printed on a catalog page alongside other incentive programs the horse is eligible for, and horses could earn a small bonus on purses throughout their career, likely a percentage of an allocated yearly budget. In theory, this would help incentivize breeding horses with a focus on durability and soundness, as potential buyers could tell at a glance how certain horses compare to one another on common metrics such as those used by the Grayson-Jockey Club's yearly durability and soundness ratings.

This is an idea that I've been tossing around in my head for a few years, and I'd love to kickstart a conversation around the subject of how to make durability a commercial factor. “Breed sounder horses” is a noble but ultimately vague goal; without quantifiable measures of what that means, evidence of how to do so without sacrificing quality, and incentives for the commercial breeder, it's a hollow call to action.

— Jessica Tugwell

Based in San Antonio, Texas, Jessica Tugwell is a longtime horse racing fan who works as a pedigree consultant under the business name Hawkstone Bloodstock. This is a truncated version of a recent post at hawkstonebloodstock.substack.com

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Trainer Keri Brion Offers Steeplechase Insights For Eclipse Award Voters

Trainer Keri Brion is a strong advocate for steeplechase racing (she also trains on the flat) who has offered to share her analysis on the six horses whose past performances are included in the statistical information distributed to Eclipse Award voters for the 2023 racing season.

Voting for those awards is now under way and closes on Jan. 3, 2024.

Brion does so without any conflicts of interest (none of the horses are from her stable) but with the hope that this information will help Eclipse Award voters better understand the steeplechase division and some of its best races, and lead to fewer voter abstentions in this category. Over the last five years, an average of 30 voters have abstained in the steeplechase category, representing about 12 percent of all voters casting ballots for Eclipse Awards each year. The voters are from Daily Racing Form, National Thoroughbred Racing Association/Equibase, and the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters. Daily Racing Form past performances for the six leading steeplechase candidates can be seen here.

A former assistant to the late Hall of Famer Jonathan Sheppard who opened a public stable in 2021, Brion trained Eclipse Award champion The Mean Queen in her first full year of training. In 2022 she became just the second trainer to exceed more than $1 million in steeplechase earnings in a single season in North America. – Ray Paulick

By Keri Brion

It is an interesting year for the steeplechase category as there is no real standout on paper. Hopefully, I can shed a bit of light about each nominee and help keep people from abstaining in this category. The majority of these horses have beaten one another at some stage, and the weights they have carried during the Grade 1 handicaps are something Eclipse Award voters may want to consider.

Awakened

Awakened is one of the two American-bred nominees bred by the Phipps Stable and was a consistent horse all season, with five starts, two wins, a second, and a third. He was third in a never won two allowance race at Middleburg before winning an alw1x at Radnor in the spring. He then went to Saratoga in a novice stakes where he was second to McTigue carrying 153 pounds when McTigue was carrying 147. A few weeks later he came back in the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard and turned the tables on McTigue when carrying 146 pounds (McTigue carried 150). The first three finishers of the G1 Jonathan Sheppard were novice stake horses jumping up into open company, the fourth-place finisher was Merry Maker – whom I will talk about in a few.  The summer stakes in the steeplechase circuit are all handicaps so you will want to keep that in mind when deciding how to weigh the wins of each horse. Awakened finished his year in the Grade 2 Zeke Ferguson at Great Meadow, where he finished third behind Snap Decision. If you are looking for consistency, Awakened has done nothing wrong.

Merry Maker

Merry Maker is an Irish-bred gelding who finished in the top three in four of his five starts this season. He started his season with a win in a never won 2 allowance race at the Gold Cup. He then went to the same novice stake as Awakened and finished 13 lengths third behind both McTigue and Awakened carrying the same weight (153 pounds) as Awakened. He then also came back in the Jonathan Sheppard and was defeated eight lengths when fourth behind three novice horses like those mentioned above while carrying the bottom weight of 144 pounds. Three weeks later he won the G1 Lonesome Glory, which the top three finishers from the Jonathan Sheppard chose to skip. Snap Decision did finish fourth behind Merry Maker in this Grade 1, although it should be noted that Merry Maker was carrying 142 pounds where Snap Decision was carrying 162. Merry Maker finished out his year with a very impressive second-place finish in the G1 American Grand National at Far Hills behind fellow nominee Noah and the Ark at level weights.

Belfast Banter

Belfast Banter is another Irish-bred who looked to have just found his form in the summer before being sidelined for the rest of the season. He started his year with a distanced third behind Snap Decision in a Grade 2 at Middleburg before finishing third in another Grade 2 at Great Meadow. He then went to the Grade 1 AP Smithwick and absolutely blew the field away carrying one of the bottom weights of 144 pounds. He soundly beat fellow nominee Noah and the Ark, who finished fourth in this outing although Noah was carrying 12 pounds more than Belfast Banter. It was a huge effort that suggested there would be bigger things to come from him but, unfortunately, we did not see him again after the big victory.

Scaramanga

Scaramanga is yet another Irish-bred gelding among the contenders and is the only one who is not American based. Champion Irish trainer Willie Mullins brought him over to the Iroquois in the spring and he soundly won the Grade 1 three-mile race under Irish champion jockey Paul Townend. This race was also level weights and he beat fellow nominees Noah and the Ark and Snap Decision. He went back to Ireland to run once more with little success and then never ran again this season.

Noah and the Ark

Noah and the Ark is the fourth Irish-bred gelding among the six contenders and, after struggling to put together a big performance all year, he came out with an undoubtedly career best performance to win the Grade 1 American Grand National at level weights in October. He ran fifth in the Iroquois behind fellow nominees Scaramanga and Snap Decision before a distant fourth and eilghth in both Grade 1 races in Saratoga. However, it should be noted that in the G1 AP Smithwick he carried the top weight of 158 pounds when the winner (Belfast Banter) was carrying 144 pounds. And in the G1 Jonathan Sheppard where he finished eighth, he also carried the top weight of 158 pounds whereas the winner (Awakened) carried 146 pounds and fellow nominee Merry Maker (who finished fourth) carried 144 pounds. At level weights in the American Grand National he came out and handily won what could be said to be our biggest Grade 1 in steeplechasing, defeating Merry Maker and Snap Decision.

Snap Decision

Snap Decision is only the second American-bred horse in this group of six and both were bred by Phipps Stable. He had a bit of a roller coaster year, but it is important to not overlook him. He started his season winning a Grade 2 at Middleburg carrying 158 pounds, where he beat fellow nominee Belfast Banter, who was carrying 140 pounds, along with the rest of the field. He then finished second to Scaramanga in the Iroquois at Nashville while beating Noah and the Ark at level weights. He took the Saratoga summer off because as the top-rated horse in the country he would have ended up carrying 15-20 pounds more than most of his competitors. He came back out In the G1 Lonesome Glory to use as a prep for his fall campaign, finishing fourth carrying 162 pounds. The winner (Merry Maker), along with the rest of the field, carried 142 or 140 pounds, so Snap Decision carried 20-22 pounds more than all of them. He then went to the American Grand National where he pulled up on yielding ground, which is ground he does not enjoy or run well over. However, he came back out a week later in the only other option for him before the end of 2023 to win a Grade 2 at Great Meadow carrying 162 pounds. Awakened (who finished third) carried 150 pounds and the rest of the field carried 146, 142, and 140 pounds. With that win, Snap Decision joined a very elite group in steeplechase history as a million-dollar earner.

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The Friday Show Presented By Woodbine: 10 Bold Predictions For 2024

There are still two weeks remaining in 2023, but we are already looking ahead to the future.

In this final episode of the Friday Show for 2023, bloodstock editor Joe Nevills and publisher Ray Paulick examine 10 bold predictions for the new year, covering such subjects as a potential Japanese victory in the Kentucky Derby, efforts to free Jorge Navarro and Jason Servis, a solution to the Churchill Downs turf course problem, an additional race for the Breeders' Cup world championships,  a final resolution to the Medina Spirit drug disqualification from the 2021 Derby, a Rich Strike update, an exciting and stimulating new sponsorship for Quarter Horse racing, and some news about Mike Repole's National Thoroughbred Alliance, not to mention a tidbit about possible entry into racing by an international superstar from the entertainment world.

Of course, these are only predictions coaxed out of a special hat with the help of a magic wand Nevills found in an old muckpile at Great Lakes Downs in Michigan on a recent trip there. We don't know that these predictions are going to come true, so Paulick has enlisted a Magic 8-Ball to determine how 2024 will unfold.

We appreciate the longstanding support of the Friday Show by Woodbine, whose Thoroughbred race meet ends on Sunday with mandatory payouts across the board.

Watch this week's episode of The Friday Show below:

 

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