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Racing’s Crystal Ball: How TDN Europe Predicts 2023 To Play Out

A large part of the fun that comes with following racing and the bloodstock game is predicting the future. Who will win the Derby? Who might top the Orby Sale? What freshman sires are here to stay and which ones will drift into the abyss?

Well, we've looked deep into the TDN Europe crystal ball for 2023 to see if we can come up with the answers to the burning questions for the year ahead. Enjoy!

January

If you think he had a good Christmas, wait until you see how January goes for Willie Mullins. This is the month where Ireland's dominant jumps trainer ramps up a gear, highlighted by Energumene's deadly performance in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Can anyone stop Energumene–or Mullins for that matter–at Cheltenham?

Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott appears to have his own festival banker in the shape of Mares' Novice Hurdle hotpot Halka Du Tabert, who makes light work of her rivals in the Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse.

Guess who features among this race's roll of honour? None other than Honeysuckle and Minella Melody. Could the torch be passed to fellow Kenny Alexander-owned Halka Du Tabert?

February

Reassuring figures are recorded at one of the first big Flat sales of the new year, the February Sale, where multiple lots sell for six figures. Maybe 2022 wasn't a dream after all.

Willie Mullins once again dominates at the Dublin Racing Festival where Honeysuckle's bid for a four-timer in the Irish Champion Hurdle is foiled by State Man, who now appears the chief Irish challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.

Galopin Des Champs dazzles in the Irish Gold Cup, but will he stay the extra two furlongs up the punishing hill at Cheltenham?

March

Did somebody say Flat racing? Aidan O'Brien opens the gates at Ballydoyle to the Irish press and Brendan O'Rourke is back in search of the next two-year-old star to follow this season. “He's by No Nay Never, Brendan. Big Little something, I think he's called,” says Aidan. “A fiver or a tenner,” asks Brendan.

Constitution Hill proves worthy of all of the hype in the Champion Hurdle by beating Honeysuckle, who runs a tremendous race in the first-time cheekpieces.

It's easy-as-you-like for Energumene in the Champion Chase but there's a surprise in the Stayers' Hurdle as Ahoy Senor, re-routed from the Gold Cup, denies Flooring Porter a third straight triumph.

It's a one-two-three for team Mullins in the Gold Cup, but it's Emmet who takes the top honours, not his uncle Willie, as Noble Yeats out-battles Galopin Des Champs with Stattler running an eye-catching race with a view towards the Grand National back in third.

The recently-returned Oisin Murphy shines at the Dubai World Cup meeting. Meanwhile, industry stakeholders begin to get a foothold on what's required for the Dubai Breeze-up Sale as solid trade is recorded.

April

Don't say you weren't told. Stattler does a Hedgehunter by building on a cracking effort in the Gold Cup to secure Grand National glory at the main expense of Lifetime Ambition.

Oh yes. We're back, baby. The breeze-up circus gets going with a bang as the international buyers turn out in force for the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale. Tally-Ho Stud sells the top lot, a Kodiac colt, to Peter and Ross Doyle for high six figures.

Will he or won't he? The build-up to the Craven S. revolves around whether leading 2000 Guineas contender Chaldean will take in a prep or head straight to the Classic. In the end, Andrew Balding elects to sidestep the Craven, describing himself as delighted with Chaldean's condition at home on the gallops.

May

No prep run? No problem. Balding's decision to go straight to the 2000 Guineas with Chaldean pays off in spades as he romps home at Newmarket. Little Big Bear fails to get involved but Auguste Rodin finishes a fine second for Aidan O'Brien, who goes on to win the 1000 Guineas with Meditate.

In Chaldean's absence, Little Big Bear justifies O'Brien's faith in the colt's ability to see out the mile as he makes light work of the opposition in the Irish 2,000 Guineas while Dermot Weld's Tahiyra shows a blistering turn of foot to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

It's that man again. Willie Browne tops the Arqana breeze-up sale with a colt sourced in America the previous autumn.

June

Aidan O'Brien wins the Oaks with a filly who failed to win as a two-year-old while the Guineas runner-up Auguste Rodin takes the step up to 1m4f in his stride by running out one of the most impressive Derby winners for some time.

It's a week for the first-season sires at Royal Ascot as colts by Ten Sovereigns and Soldier's Call win the Coventry and Norfolk S. respectively while an Inns Of Court filly lands the Queen Mary S.

Kyprios runs out one of the most impressive winners of the week to take his second Gold Cup. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Sakheer dazzles in the Commonwealth Cup, once again advertising the prowess of breeze-up handler Willie Browne.

Back at the Curragh, Aidan O'Brien records a record-extending 15th Irish Derby triumph.

July

Auguste Rodin had the option of bidding for the Derby double at the Curragh but he proves himself to be equally as adept back over 10f in bolstering the good record that three-year-olds have in the Coral-Eclipse S. at Sandown.

Remember him? Desert Crown makes his long awaited return to the track in the King George at Ascot but he is no match for Vadeni who appears a much stronger horse this year and sees the trip out well.

The demand for horses with good ratings remains strong at the July Sale at Tattersalls while, on the track, Sakheer follows up his brilliant display at Royal Ascot with a red-hot performance in the July Cup.

August

After running a number of classy races against the boys, Dramatised causes something of a surprise for local owner Steve Parkin and trainer Karl Burke in the Nunthorpe S. at York.

September

He never managed to win the St Leger as a jockey but he does it as a trainer. Step forward Donnacha O'Brien. Proud And Regal, indeed.

Goffs captures the imagination with its latest incentive to attract buyers and vendors alike to the Orby, which continues to go from strength to strength. A number of New Bay and Mehmas colts sell nicely while Saxon Warrior hardens his reputation as a coming force in the stallion ranks with his progeny selling for notable sums.

October

No match for Alpinista 12 months ago, Vadeni wins the Arc from stablemate Al Hakeem with Bay Bridge keeping on best for third.

Book 1 does not disappoint at Tattersalls with 10 lots breaking the million gns mark, including Philip Stauffenberg's Kingman half-brother to Skitter Scatter, who he picked up for €550,000 at Goffs the previous November.

But the top lot is a 3 million gns colt consigned by Watership Down and it sells to Mick Donohoe, bidding on his iPad for Yulong, with MV Magnier and Anthony Stroud pushing him all the way.

The weather Gods do not look kindly on British Champions Day as the meeting is a washout and the testing ground throws up a number of surprise results.

November

It's a first Melbourne Cup victory for Willie Mullins as Champion Hurdle also-ran Vauban builds on his Queen Alexandra S. victory at Royal Ascot to take the race that stops a nation.

Nothing can separate Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby once again at the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita as both men send out five winners apiece. Special mention to Modern Games, who secures his third Breeders' Cup triumph and second Breeders' Cup Mile success.

December

There must be something in the water. Tally-Ho Stud clinches its third first-season sire championship in four years as Inns Of Court does what Mehmas and Cotai Glory did before him by producing the goods with his first crop of runners. It was an incredibly-strong year for the freshman sires with Soldier's Call, Ten Sovereigns, Too Darn Hot, Advertise and Blue Point achieving plenty.

Some extra dates are added to the farewell tour as Frankie Dettori announces his decision to continue his riding career for another season.

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12 Questions: Jason Singh

TDN: First job in the Thoroughbred industry?
Believe it or not, the one I'm in! I have worked for Tattersalls now for 22 years, having answered an advert for a marketing executive in the Racing Post back in 2000. I had previously run a very amateur racing website called Ausracing, but since it brought me no income, it could hardly be called a job.

TDN: Biggest influence on your career?
Always a hard one, but perhaps it was the friend who took me to Sandown racecourse in Melbourne's Eastern suburbs back in 1987 despite being only 15 years old. I had 50 cents each way on a horse called Boley's Girl who won at 33/1. I think I was hooked from that moment on.

TDN: Favourite racehorse of all time, and why?
I want to take the liberty of splitting this into two, one being when I lived in Australia and one being since I moved to England. In Australia it was a horse called Vo Rogue, trained by a battler called Vic Rail who was virtually impassable and ran races from the front at a fast pace, although horses such as Better Loosen Up, Beau Zam, Bonecrusher and Myocard all played significant roles in the life of a giddy teenager. In the UK it is undoubtedly Frankel who was quite simply like no horse I have ever seen before. Add in the Henry Cecil and Khaild Abdullah storylines and you had a horse who evoked excitement and emotion at the same time as well as astonishment. That he's proving such a remarkable stallion now only adds to the story.

TDN: Who will be champion first-season sire in 2023?
I guess it's stating the obvious that a large crop of foals and precocity are the key elements here and stallions who fit the bill next season include Advertise, Blue Point, Calyx, Inns of Court, Soldier's Call, Ten Sovereigns and of course Too Darn Hot. One of them I reckon!

TDN: Greatest race in the world?
Whilst the Derby, Arc, Melbourne Cup and Grand National all have claims to that crown, I always thought the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket was the race that the world was most interested in, especially form a breeding/stallion point of view.

TDN: If you could be someone else in the industry for a day who would it be, and why?
Ryan Moore. I've never ridden, so being on board a top-class racehorse in a race would be a great thrill I'd imagine.

TDN: Emerging talent in the industry (human)?
Patrick Owens has done a remarkably good job with very few horses in the short time he has been training.

TDN: Horse TDN should have made a Rising Star, and didn't?
Karl Burke's Liberty Lane who won very easily on debut at Nottingham and who has some attractive entries next year.

TDN: Under-the-radar stallion?
Not sure if he is under the radar but I think there are any number of stallions who don't get the acclaim they deserve given the complexities of fashion and the sale ring, but if I was breeding for myself I think Teofilo is value at €30,000 given he has had 98 stakes winners from 12 crops of racing age, including 18 Group 1 winners.

TDN: Friday night treat?
Thai Street Cafe in Newmarket.

TDN: Guilty pleasure outside racing?
I enjoy getting to a festival or two or two during the British summer and the odd gig here and there.

TDN: Race I wish I had been there for…
Better Loosen Up, 1990 Japan Cup.

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Who’s Hot Ahead Of The Tattersalls December Foal Sale?

The insatiable demand for foals was evident in the figures recorded at Goffs last week with turnover rising 16% to €29,561,000 and the average climbing 16% to €40,110.

At the top end of the market, Kingman (GB) dominated with three foals by the Juddmonte-based stallion selling for a combined €1,540,000 and one of Europe's leading pinhookers Philipp Stauffenberg signing for the €550,000 top lot by the sire.

Tally-Ho Stud may be best known for being sellers but they pipped Stauffenberg for the biggest spenders title by signing for 19 foals for €1,429,000. Juddmonte, Yeomanstown, BBA Ireland and Camas Park Stud were also on the front foot at Goffs.

Away from the top end, there were interesting trends to emerge last week that could well impact how this week's December Foal Sale plays out at Tattersalls.

What first-season sires do the buyers want? Who are the emerging forces in the stallion ranks and where might the value lie at Tattersalls? We've examined all of that and more.

Stock In Mehmas And New Bay Is Booming

It's been a breakout year for Mehmas (Ire) and New Bay (GB), who have had their fees for 2023 hiked off the back of memorable campaigns for their respective progeny and, judging by how well their foals went down at Goffs, they can again be expected to play a leading role at Tattersalls.

Let's start with Mehmas, a horse who began his stud career at Tally-Ho in 2017 at a fee of €12,500 and has justified his bump to €60,000 after another memorable campaign, highlighted by Group 1-winning sprinter Minzaal (Ire).

New Bay has done something similar at Ballylinch in that he has climbed the ranks the hard way. He also entered the stallion ranks in 2017, standing for €20,000, but has had his fee for 2023 increased to €75,000 from €37,500 with Bay Bridge (GB), Bayside Boy (Ire) and Saffron Beach (Ire) doing their bit to advertise their stallion's prowess at the highest level this season.

Nine New Bays sold at Goffs for an average of €80,750, headed by colts who sold for €145,000 and €140,000, while Mehmas enjoyed a similarly productive sale with 26 foals selling for an average of €62,455. Four foals by Mehmas broke the €100,000 mark with BBA Ireland going to €160,000 to secure a colt by the stallion.

What's clear about last week's results is that Mehmas and New Bay are the emerging forces in the European stallion ranks. There are 30 foals by Mehmas and 16 New Bays at Tattersalls this week and it will be interesting to see how they perform.

Sergei To Make A Splash?

The Whitsbury Manor Stud team got to dip their toe into the market with some of the first foals by Sergei Prokofiev (Can) going under the hammer at Goffs. How that will prepare an operation who excelled itself with leading first-season sire Havana Grey is hard to know given the amount of foals due to be sold by Sergei Profkofiev at Tattersalls this week.

The Goffs offering went down well; one colt made €52,000 while the WH Bloodstock team paid €45,000 for another. Of the six foals that sold at Goffs, they averaged at €34,167. Not bad going for a stallion who stood at £6,500 in his first season at stud.

Indeed, Sergei Prokofiev hails from that Scat Daddy line that is proving so popular. He was clearly quite the looker, too, given he fetched $1,100,000 as a yearling before carving out a decent career without managing to win a Group 1 for Aidan O'Brien.

There are 60 foals by Sergei Prokofiev at Tattersalls this week. They should provide a better sample size into the standing in which he is held in with the buyers.

Najd Stud Snap Up Foals

We have become accustomed to Najd Stud playing a major role at the horses-in-training sales but it was interesting to see the Saudi Arabian-based outfit sign for four foals at Goffs. Is that a sign of things to come at Tattersalls this week?

Najd Stud didn't shoot the lights out, either, at Goffs. A Ghaiyyath (Ire) colt topped the total spend of €134,500 across five foals. Interestingly, a filly by Shadwell's Commonwealth Cup winner Eqtidaar (Ire), who has his first runners next year, was among the purchases at €36,000 as was a €3,500 Belardo (Ire) colt on the final day of the sale.

Kildangan-Based Sires Come Up Trumps

Speaking of Ghaiyyath, the Kildangan-based freshman sire enjoyed a rock-solid start at Goffs with 11 of his first foals selling for €824,000 which averages out at €74,909.

Leading pinhookers Pier House Stud bought the top two colts by the stallion for €185,000 and €145,000 respectively and few would be surprised if the offerings by the four-time Group 1 winner go down well at Tattersalls as well.

Of the 11 foals cataloged by Ghaiyyath at Tattersalls, a filly out of a sister to New York Girl (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}) and a half-brother to Global Giant (GB) (Shamardal) stand out on paper at least.

Fellow Kildangan-based stallions Blue Point (Ire) and Earthlight (Ire) also performed well. Earthlight had 17 foals sell for €942,500 at an average of €55,441 with Tally-Ho, Lynn Lodge Stud, Peter and Ross Doyle among the significant buyers of his progeny.

Even more impressive were figures posted by Blue Point, who had 20 lots sell for €1,011,500 at an average of €56,194. Top of the pops were colts knocked down for €200,000 apiece to Camas Park Stud and Katsumi Yoshida.

Blue Point's yearlings were similarly well-received. Famous for winning the King's Stand and Diamond Jubilee S. in the same week at Royal Ascot in 2019, Blue Point will have his first two-year-olds hit the track in 2023, with yearlings by the sire averaging over €100,000 this year.

His stats performed favourably against proven sires Dark Angel (Ire), Showcasing (GB), Kodiac (GB), Starspangledbanner (Aus) and Acclamation (GB) in terms of average for a similar number of lots through the ring at Goffs last week. It will be interesting to see if he can carry over that sort of momentum at Tattersalls.

First-Season Sires

Next year's race to be crowned champion first-season sire is being billed as one of the most exciting renewals for a long time with Too Darn Hot (GB), Blue Point, Waldgeist (GB), Magna Grecia (Ire), Ten Sovereigns (Ire), Calyx (GB), Advertise (GB), Invincible Army (Ire), Land Force (Ire) and Soldier's Call (GB) having their first runners in 2023.

As mentioned above, Blue Point performed well at Goffs while a number of leading pinhookers got behind the progeny of a number of the first-season sires.

Advertise was one who came out nicely on the figures from a relatively small sample size at Goffs and one would imagine that Tattersalls will provide a more accurate barometer given he has 19 foals there.

But the Goffs results read well. Six foals sold for an average of €32,167 which was more than Invincible Army [14 for €29,773], Ten Sovereigns [15 for €26,833] and Soldier's Call [14 for €26,417]. Those figures could well average out this week. Time will tell.

First Crops Of Note

Along with Ghaiyyath, Earthlight and Sergei Prokofiev, who we have already mentioned, a number of stallions had their first crop go under the hammer at Goffs.

Some of the more interesting results were posted by Arizona (Ire), perhaps unsurprisingly given he is a son of the sire of the moment, No Nay Never, while King Of Change (GB), Mohaather (GB), Sottsass (Fr) and Without Parole (GB) caught the imagination.

Peter Nolan paid €60,000 for an Arizona half-brother to Eldrickjones (Ire) (Cotai Glory {GB}) while the Coolmore-based freshman sire, who stands for just €5,000, averaged a respectable €20,192 for 13 foals.

Sottsass was a classier racehorse than most of his first-crop rivals and it told in the figures at Goffs with the former Arc winner posting averages comparable with Mehmas, Invincible Spirit (Ire) and Dark Angel. There were 11 foals by Sottsass at Goffs and they sold for an average of €61,100 and a top price of €180,000.

G1 Sussex S. winner Mohaather created a good impression with five foals selling for an average of €49,250 including a top lot of €95,000 while Without Parole had four foals sell for an average of €27,000 and a high of €70,000.

King Of Change was subject to a recent transfer after being snapped up by Starfield Stud from Derrinstown and it looks like it could prove to be a decent move given how his first foals performed.

Peter and Ross Doyle paid €50,000 for a colt by the sire who averaged a solid €24,714 for seven foals sold. That's a good return for a Group 1-winning stallion who is set to stand for just €5,000 next year.

Coolmore Can Count On Wootton Bassett And No Nay Never

Wootton Bassett (GB) and No Nay Never flew the flag for Coolmore at Goffs while demand for the progeny of Saxon Warrior (Jpn) was evidently up off the back of an excellent autumn for the first-season sire.

Wootton Bassett was bettered only by Kingman and Galileo, who between them accounted for just four foals at Goffs, for the highest averages posted.

The sire of brilliant G1 National S. winner Al Riffa, Wootton Bassett clearly captured the imagination last week, with seven foals selling for €1,345,000 at an average of €224,167 which earned him a top-three finish in that particular table.

No Nay Never enjoyed an eighth-place finish in averages posted on €134,800 and, while Saxon Warrior was down on that list at €52,263, he posted a chunky aggregate with 21 foals selling for €993,000. That was the seventh-highest aggregate recorded by any stallion.

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Basement Trade Shows Solid Core at Tattersalls

NEWMARKET, UK — “Trickledown” felt rather too contentious, given what was meanwhile happening to its proponents out there in the real world. In this environment, after all, the original label of “horse-and-sparrow economics” would always have conveyed the theory rather more intelligibly. Some alternative word was required on Friday, then, to describe how a rampant market at the front end of the Tattersalls October Sale was filtering somewhat more quietly into the base of the pyramid.

In the end, the second half of Book 3–in which momentum reliably ebbs relative to the catalogue's opening session–perhaps suggested “percolation” sooner than an outright “overflow”. But there was no mistaking the wholesome depth of a market far more vital, to many professionals, than the giddy transactions of the opening books.

In contrast with Thursday, when the median had remained unchanged on last year, a gain to 13,000gns from 10,000gns attested to really solid trade through this lower tier, backed up by a strong clearance rate of 83 percent. The average was also up, by 11 percent to 17,349gns, with overall turnover on the day up 17 percent to 3,903,600gns.

Combined, the two Book 3 sessions registered robust performance across the board. Total business advanced nine percent to 11,554,600gns, producing a corresponding gain in average to 24,428gns.

But the real neon number is the one posted for total business at the October Sale, with just Saturday morning's Book 4 to go. Trade to this point last year had reached 151,474,150gns. By last night it had soared 31 percent to approach a symbolic landmark at 199,006,100gns.

Woods Hangs In There For Joint-Top Lot

This was a day when trainers and their agents could finally attempt some old-fashioned “on spec” recruitment. Nonetheless a couple of fillies, respectively by Ten Sovereigns (Ire) and Aclaim (Ire), forced their purchasers as far as 90,000gns at either end of the day.

The Aclaim, consigned by Bearstone Stud as Lot 1959, was acquired by Dwayne Woods on behalf of his brother Sean. She's out of an unraced Kodiac (GB) half-sister to G1 St Leger runner-up The Last Drop (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), whose son Washington Heights (GB) (Washington DC {Ire}) had earned his first black-type at Ripon shortly before the sale. But her most conspicuous genetic distinction is perhaps the fourth dam, Irish Classic winner Sarah Siddons (Fr).

“The update was nice but much more importantly she's just a fabulous filly,” Woods said. “She'll make a 2-year-old and a 3-year-old, so it's all pretty good.”

The agent was speaking for many prospectors when adding: “It's been hard work this week. I'm happy with everything we have bought, but every time I got up to a big one I was underbidder—at least five of them over 200,000gns.”

Ten Out of Ten For Oakgrove Filly

The Ten Sovereigns filly [1708] that topped the morning trade arrived from John Deer's Oakgrove Stud and, with the docket signed by Jo Stone of Rabbah Bloodstock, will be joining local trainer Ismail Mohammed. She's out of Listed scorer Lady Grace (Ire) (Orpen), one of the farm's more mature mares who has produced a couple of stakes operators.

“We're delighted with the price, but she deserved to make it,” said Oakgrove manager David Hilton. “She could have been earlier in the sale and was a bit of a stand-out today. She has a pedigree, she's a good physical, moves well. We've been very happy with her all the way through. We wanted to get back to speed. Mr. Deer really likes the stallion, thought what he did at Newmarket was exceptional. We've used him again and I'm sure he's going to make it.”

On a busy day for the Chepstow farm, perhaps its outstanding page was offered by a Golden Horn (GB) colt [1704] out of a Kingman (GB) half-sister to its champion Al Kazeem (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}). He was another purchase, at 40,000gns, by Dwayne Woods.

As for Ten Sovereigns, he registered another good sale for this grade when a filly from Deer Forest Stud made 50,000gns from Amanda Skiffington as Lot 1878. She will be joining Jane Chapple-Hyam.

Another Zoustar Breeze Project for Tally-Ho

The booming market has naturally raised the stakes uncomfortably for pinhookers, who were duly relieved to be active at this more accessible tier. One for whom the breeze-ups are on the agenda is the daughter of Zoustar (Aus) brought here as Lot 1930 by Jamie Railton, acquired for 77,000gns by Tom Biggs of Blandford Bloodstock on behalf of Tally-Ho Stud.

“She's a lovely filly,” the agent said. “She's from a very fast, precocious family and that seems to be what is working best with the Zoustars. She's also a half-sister to a pretty decent and precocious horse in [juvenile stakes-placed] Lambeth Walk (GB) (Charm Spirirt {Ire}).”

Tally-Ho found one of the high achievers of the last breeze-up cycle in this catalogue last year, when Hamish Macauley Bloodstock signed an identical docket for a filly by the same stallion. Sold on to Atlas Bloodstock at Arqana for €110,000, she is now celebrated as GI Cheveley Park S. winner Lezoo (GB).

This lady's prospects of emulating that success are enhanced by granddam Roo (GB) (Rudimentary), responsible for a series of black-type performers and/or producers including the dam of G1 Sussex S. winner Mohaather (GB) (Showcasing {GB}).

Clodovil Bows Out

A touching footnote was the sale of the last yearling to come under the hammer by Clodovil (Ire), now enjoying his retirement at Rathasker Stud. The daughter consigned by his home farm as Lot 1798 was bought for 37,000gns by Julie Wood's Woodstock, doubtless with a view to emulating Manderley (Ire)–another of his greys, who ran a close fourth in the G1 1000 Guineas at 100-1 after Wood bought her from Rathasker in Book I of the 2012 sale.

“She's a lovely filly,” said Rathasker's Maurice Burns. “She had the same way of going as all of Clodovil's progeny. They have a bit of spark and are very genuine. People who had any of his stock always returned and came to the door at the sales to see his stock. It was just age that caught up with him.”

Clodovil's legacy at Rathasker is in the hands of his son Gregorian (Ire), while his record as a broodmare sire has recently been topped off by G1 Haydock Sprint Cup winner Minzaal (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}).

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