TDN Writers' Room | Horse Racing Free Tips

Ned Toffey Talks Into Mischief, Authentic, Monomoy Girl and More On Writers’ Room

Business is booming at Spendthrift Farm. The once-defunct stallion station has enjoyed a remarkable resurgence in the past decade, thanks in large part to a superstar stallion, a deep-pocketed owner and the steady hand of an experienced general manager. Ned Toffey has seen it all since B. Wayne Hughes purchased Spendthrift in 2004, and he joined the TDN Writers’ Room presented by Keeneland Wednesday. Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week, Toffey talked about the explosive growth of the farm, what makes Into Mischief special, likely Horse of the Year Authentic (Into Mischief), the future of recent Spendthrift purchases Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) and Got Stormy (Get Stormy) and much more.

“Once we did some renovations here at Spendthrift, we brought Malibu Moon over and really thought that was going to be our flagship horse. And all the while there was this little son of Harlan’s Holiday we bought for $180,000,” Toffey recalled when asked about Into Mischief. “The first couple of years he was here, he was a very tough sell. One of the programs that we did, ‘Share the Upside’, was actually designed to help sell seasons to Into Mischief. But it turned out to be the opposite. Into Mischief made the program. He gave us credibility and has given us the confidence to start to go after other top horses. He’s done so much. He drives traffic to the farm. We’ll be fortunate if we can ever have another one as good as him. People give us a lot of credit for having ‘made’ Into Mischief. We’re happy to take that credit, but I think the credit goes to Into Mischief.”

Spendthrift made major waves at last week’s Fasig-Tipton November ‘Night of the Stars’, shelling out $9.5 million for champion topper Monomoy Girl, $4.2 million for MGISW Bast (Uncle Mo) and $2.75 million for MGISW Got Stormy.

“We wanted to have some marquee mares to breed Into Mischief, Authentic and even some of the stallions that came in within the last year as well,” Toffey explained. “We generally will move our own mares out of the way if we have clients that really need to get their mares bred. So oftentimes some of the mares that we start out planning to breed to some of these stallions, end up getting bred to somebody else. This year we wanted to have some mares that we just felt were really strong. We may not breed a lot to Into Mischief. Mr. Hughes usually likes to collect the stud fee and make room for our clients. But now we’ve got a handful of mares that will certainly need to go to Into Mischief, Authentic and the likes of those.”

Asked about the reasoning for retiring Authentic as a 3-year-old while bringing Monomoy Girl and Got Stormy back to the racetrack in 2021 as 6-year-olds, Toffey offered, “You’re talking about a little different price point. We were wide open in terms of what we might do, but his racing career just went so well and Bob [Baffert] said, ‘He’s done so much. He’s done everything that he really can.’ And our primary business is breeding. That’s what drives things here and the stallion complex is the epicenter of Spendthrift. That is our primary focus and everything we do revolves around that. He’s such a sound, talented horse, it was very tempting to go on and run next year, but again, this is such a central part of what we do, we felt like it was time for him to come and start his career here.”

Elsewhere on the show, the writers debated which Eclipse categories are still to be decided, appreciated strong 2-year-old performances from the weekend and, in the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, broke down the latest developments in the indictments surrounding Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version.

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Brad Cox Talks Breeders’ Cup Grand Slam, Monomoy Girl 6YO Campaign On Writers’ Room

Already considered one of the hottest barns in America heading into Breeders’ Cup weekend, Brad Cox’s stable provided an exclamation point to a monster 2020 season with a whopping four World Championship victories at Keeneland. Now leading all conditioners with 28 graded stakes wins this year and a legitimate threat to unseat four-time defending champion trainer Chad Brown at the Eclipse Awards, Cox joined the TDN Writers’ Room presented by Keeneland Wednesday. Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week, Cox explained his barn’s breakout success the past few years, talked about what’s next for his Breeders’ Cup winners and hinted at some potential new tests for soon-to-be dual champion Monomoy Girl (Tapizar)’s expected return as a 6-year-old.

“It’s the quality of horse. We always left like we’ve been able to win races,” Cox said of his outfit’s rapid rise to the top. “The bulk of the stable was made up of claiming horses for several years. We had a run with Midwest Thoroughbreds that was, for me and my crew, very educational. We had the opportunity to see a lot of different types of horses. But over the last five years, the biggest change is the clientele and the horses for sure.”

Already with an enormously satsifying weekend under its belt, Cox’s operation got even more good news Sunday night, when Spendthrift Farm announced that Monomoy Girl would return to the races in 2021 after buying the mare for $9.5 million at Fasig-Tipton November.

“They asked me if I’d be interested in taking her back to campaign her in 2021, which was a no-brainer, but that was basically the extent of our conversation,” Cox said when asked about a potential schedule for the wildly popular chestnut. “She’s back here with us at Churchill, she came out of the race in fantastic shape. I think we’ll find out more, they’re still buying horses and they seem to be busy, but I think that facing the boys or racing internationally could be something that’s on their mind. And it’s something that we would be up for, to say the least.”

After Monomoy Girl, the headliner of the weekend for Cox was Essential Quality (Tapit), who dominated the GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to run his record to three-for-three and likely salt away a divisional championship. The gray is the latest best hope for Godolphin to win its elusive first GI Kentucky Derby, and Cox talked about his impressions and immediate plans for the colt.

“He came out of the race really, really well,” he said. “We took him back to the track this morning, just jogged him. He’s full of himself at times. He’s a Tapit, so he has a lot of energy. But he seems to know when to turn it on or shut it off, which I think is a great trait of quality in a classy horse. I think the sky’s the limit and I don’t think there’s any kind of distance limitations with him. There really doesn’t seem to be a bottom with him so I’m very optimistic he could be a horse that gets a mile and a quarter. We’ll start training him again at some point in early December at Fair Grounds. It’d be nice to get a couple of races into him in February, March, April and hopefully he does enough to earn himself a spot in the Derby.”

Cox also indicated that he would consider a maiden European journey for his barn with GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf heroine Aunt Pearl (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}), saying, “It would be nice to get a start into her this spring and then maybe look at Royal Ascot with her. Maybe a similar campaign that Sharing (Speightstown, second in Ascot’s G1 Coronation S.) had. I thought about that after she won the Jessamine because of one, her pedigree, and two, [winning with] no Lasix. I think that’s a benefit that’s going to help our horses internationally.”

Elsewhere on the show, the writers broke down all the action from Breeders’ Cup weekend and, in the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, laid out their biggest takeaways from Fasig-Tipton’s ‘Night of the Stars’ and the early days of Keeneland November. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version.

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Breeders’ Cup Talk with Jerry Bailey on the TDN Writers’ Room

The countdown is running to a close for the 2020 Breeders’ Cup World Championship and perhaps no one has more Breeders’ Cup memories to share than Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey, who made an astounding 15 trips to the Breeders’ Cup winner’s circle during his 31-year career, including a record five wins in the Classic.

Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week for Wednesday’s TDN Writers’ Room podcast presented by Keeneland, Bailey spoke on some of his favorite Breeders’ Cup moments, as well as a few of his top picks going into this weekend’s meet.

When asked which horse he would choose as his Classic mount, Bailey wavered between a few different contenders.

“I would probably choose Authentic (Into Mischief), but it’s a toss up between Improbable (City Zip) and Authentic,” he said. “If you drill down, I think Authentic is the true speed of the race and he will make the lead. I think he’s super dangerous doing that. I think it comes down to the trips. Who gets the most comfortable trip and who gets the trip that they like and they’re best at? I think it’s most likely either Authentic on the lead or Improbable in the three path stalking just a few lengths off the lead.”

This year will mark the 25^th anniversary of Bailey’s win in the Classic aboard Cigar, a race that was also the 12^th of 16 straight victories for the Hall of Fame duo. Cigar’s unforgettable career was recently relived in a TDN Look feature.

Bailey spoke on the pressure of being the regular rider for such a beloved racehorse.

“There is pressure on any rider that walks out on the heavy favorite, no matter who it is or what race it is, the first race or the last. So yeah, I felt it on him pretty much every time. But he was a horse that I knew I could get out of any trouble I ever got in. But my philosophy was, don’t get in trouble. If you think you’re on the best horse, then you put him in position to win. And if he’s good enough, he’s going to win.”

Another memorable Classic for Bailey was when he pulled off a 133-to-1 odds win aboard French import Arcangues in 1993.

“I knew nothing about the horse,” he said. “I didn’t even get the mount until about five days before the race. So I thought okay, I’ll talk to the trainer when I walk in the paddock. He’ll kind of clue me in. But I couldn’t find [trainer] Andre Fabre and I didn’t know what he looked like. Actually, I had never met him. There were a thousand people in the paddock, so I couldn’t find him. So my next thought was during the rider’s up, I would talk to the groom. And the groom told me everything I needed to know- in French. And I didn’t understand it. So I left the paddock on the horse not knowing anything other than what I could glean from the racing form.

Now serving as a spokesperson for the industry as a leading racing analyst for NBC Sports, Bailey gets a unique perspective from a fan’s point of view on a day-to-day basis.

“The biggest complaint I get from fringe fans is that it’s too boring. It’s too slow,” he said. “I mean, we’re in a world that if it takes 30 seconds to download something, we’re frustrated. So the time between races is kind of a drag to a lot of people. We go to a lot of Heat games and you’re entertained at every time out, from the moment the whistle blows until they start again. It’s a little different, obviously, but I think if we could provide some entertainment as informational vignettes about the jockeys, the horses, the trainers and the owners, we have to step it up a little bit because we’re playing catch up from a long time ago.”

Elsewhere on the show, in the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, the writers shared their hottest tips looking ahead to this weekend’s racing. Is Princess Noor (Not This Time) unbeatable in the Juvenile Filles? Will the European invaders dominate in the Mile or can a U.S.-based runner get the win? And will the Distaff turn out to be a match race between Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) and Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil)? The writers examine these questions and more. Click here to listen to the audio version.

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Andy Beyer Joins TDN Writers’ Room

As the Breeders’ Cup draws nearer, legendary author, columnist, figuremaker and handicapper Andy Beyer joined the TDN Writers’ Room presented by Keeneland this week. Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week, Beyer discussed the future of playing the horses, what his action looks like these days and the evolution of speed figures over the years.

Asked about his early Breeders’ Cup opinions, Beyer understandably said he’s against the strong on hype, weak on numbers Princess Noor (Not This Time), who figures to be among the favorites in the Juvenile Fillies.

“The commentators on TV were just riding the Beyer Speed Figures, like, ‘How can this great horse only be getting figures in the 70’s?'” he said. “Todd Schrupp on TVG mentioned her in the same breath with Ruffian, which to me is sacrilege. But the fact is when I look at all of her races, the figures are solid as a rock. When she won her last race [the Chandelier] at Santa Anita, there was a really weak group of male 2-year-olds [in that day’s GI American Pharoah S.] going the same distance. You have a direct line of comparison and her time was just very mediocre, as with her other races, so I always believed in standing by right figures when I can and I’ll be betting against her in the Breeders’ Cup.”

On how his betting habits compare to a younger version of himself, Beyer said, “I bet much less. When I developed the figures I was just about the only person who had speed figures. I had as great an edge as a gambler could want from the mid-70s to the mid-90s. Now that speed figures are common currency and everybody has access to them, I don’t have that. I made hay while the sun shined, in those golden years. Plus there are elements of the modern game that I just don’t like. At the top of the list is the Rainbow 6 and those other copycat jackpot bets. There was nothing that got my juices flowing like a big carryover in a traditional Pick 6. But the jackpot bets are, to me, a sucker bet to fleece the average player. So I’m down on that.”

A longtime critic of drugs in racing and the lax regulatory approach that allows cheaters to prosper, Beyer admitted that he didn’t realize the depths of the alleged criminality that were revealed in this March’s FBI indictments of Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro.

“In all the years that I would write about super-trainers and guys whose performance seemed to defy logic, I had the notion that, the industry is just looking the other way, stewards aren’t cracking down,” he said. “We learned from the case earlier this year that it’s not as simple as that. This was a major criminal conspiracy, with people manufacturing sophisticated drugs, hiding the presence of those drugs in a sophisticated way. It took a year-long investigation by the FBI with wiretaps to nail the cheaters. This was not just a sneaky trainer and a sneaky vet, it was something that needed a major law enforcement effort. So I think the only answer to this problem is to bring in high-powered investigators. Within the industry itself, it wasn’t negligence, we just didn’t have the tools to keep the cheaters at bay.”

Elsewhere on the show, in the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, the writers discussed the recent string of medication positives coming out of the Bob Baffert barn and what they mean, then gave their first-blush impressions of the Breeders’ Cup pre-entries. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version.

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