TDN Writers' Room | Horse Racing Free Tips

Star Politics, Racing TV Analyst Steve Kornacki Joins Writers’ Room

A mainstay political analyst on television for going on a decade now, Steve Kornacki has gained superstardom for his election coverage, particularly during the interminable night of and week following the 2020 presidential election. But Kornacki is also a passionate horse racing fan and handicapper, and last year became part of NBC's industry-leading national racing coverage. Tuesday, he sat down with Joe Bianca and Bill Finley on the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland as the Green Group Guest of the Week to discuss his racing roots, how he survived Election Week of 2020, who he's eyeing for this year's GI Kentucky Derby and more.

“How do I play [the horses]? Probably unwisely and too aggressively,” Kornacki said. “But I just enjoy the challenge. I liken it to trying to put together a puzzle with a thousand pieces. If you can ever get the combination just right, there's this feeling of satisfaction, a real rush that comes with that. So I'm always chasing that kind of rush. We did three of the final [Derby] prep races, the Wood, the Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby, on NBC a couple of weeks ago and they asked me–I think they were trying to spare me the embarrassment–if I wanted to pick them on the air. I said, 'Sure, I'll go ahead and take some shots,' and I went 0-for-3, but I knew that was a distinct possibility. And there was a part of me, when I went for some prices, that said maybe I should go with a safer pick like Mo Donegal in the Wood. But that's how I approach it. I'm always more interested in 8-1 than 2-1.”

Asked about his approach to his acclaimed election coverage and how it compares to his new gig analyzing racing, Kornacki said, “The comparison would be in the run-up to the election and the run-up to whatever race we're covering, you're looking for potential angles that can provide some insight and context. For instance, in 2020, we were very mindful that the polls systematically failed in 2016. They had undercounted [Donald] Trump support. They had overestimated Democratic support. So in the month leading up to the election, we were always trying to adjust the polling averages and say, 'If the same error applies in 2020 that applied in 2016, here's what the numbers look like now.' Suddenly you went from [Joe] Biden blowouts to these razor-thin Biden margins, and it turns out that is pretty much exactly what happened on Election Night. That's why it stretched into Election Week. That's the kind of context we're trying to provide. Now I'm looking at this Kentucky Derby field and asking myself what I can contribute on race day and in the run-up to it? Which prep races have had the best track record [with Derby runners], which horses have the best final furlong times, Beyer Speed Figures? I think a big one in the Derby is in this [qualifying] points era, being at or near the front of the pack at every point of call has been huge and a total departure from what it was before. So I look for those kinds of angles, whether it's politics or horse racing.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders' Association, XBTV, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, Bianca and Finley discussed what the closure of harness track Pompano Park could portend for racing, the exciting and growing new technology being used to detect potential breakdowns before they happen and a big upcoming weekend for older fillies and mares. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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THA Chairman Alan Foreman Joins Writers’ Room

Alan Foreman, the chairman and CEO of the Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland Tuesday afternoon as the Green Group Guest of the Week. Discussing the upcoming 2022 MATCH series for mid-Atlantic horses, a program he spearheaded, and providing updates on the scheduled renovation projects at Pimlico and Laurel, Foreman also called upon his legal expertise to weigh in on Bob Baffert's appeal of the GI Kentucky Derby disqualification and why the THA supports the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act.

While many in the racing industry lamented the breakdown in negotiations between the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency and the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority to implement a drug enforcement program, Foreman said he was bullish on HISA's separate safety program, set to take effect July 1.

“The HISA Anti-Doping and Medication Control Program relates to medication, while the Safety Program relates to every other aspect of the health, safety and welfare of the horse and rider,” he explained. “I think that's the most important part of the HISA program, because horses breaking down on the track is our worst nightmare, and horses aren't dying because of medication. When horses break down, it's multi-factorial. For example, we just did our review of the breakdowns in the mid-Atlantic region for the past year. Maryland was having its lowest incidence of breakdown in its history until the track went bad and failed at Laurel in October, and we had a cluster of eight breakdowns in a span of three weeks. We got right on it, but it blew the numbers. So there was a racetrack surface issue. Not a medication issue, not a training issue. The value of the HISA safety program is to work with everyone on racing surfaces and identifying horses at risk so they don't get on the track when they shouldn't be. That program and the uniformity that HISA is going to bring is why it got our support.”

The conversation later turned to the legal back-and-forth involving Baffert over the past year, with Foreman saying, “When we talk about HISA and the manner in which our rules are adjudicated, it isn't so much that our underlying rules are problematic, it's the enforcement process and the way justice is meted out and people can game the system. At the end of the day, I think it all went downhill after Bob's press conference. The rumor was that there had been a positive test at the Derby, and there was no confidentiality so he actually got out in front of the story. But when he came out and said he had no idea how it could have happened, and within five days, the story came out as to how it happened, he was boxed into a corner and he wasn't prepared to accept responsibility and take the punishment. So this has played out in a sense where there's no exit strategy, from either side, frankly. Churchill, by taking the action it did and making very clear that it wasn't backing down, started to press the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission to move more expeditiously. And here we are now, but it just took way too long, and that's not acceptable to anybody.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, Lane's End, the Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, XBTV, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers raved about a tremendous weekend of racing and gave their early impressions on the prospective GI Kentucky Derby and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks fields after the final round of prep races. Click here to watch the show; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Ken McPeek Talks Derby Hopefuls Tiz the Bomb, Smile Happy On Writers’ Room

Housing as many as three GI Kentucky Derby starters in his barn, trainer Kenny McPeek joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland as the Green Group Guest of the Week Tuesday to discuss Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb)'s dirt prospects and potential summer European campaign, his plan for likely GI Toyota Blue Grass S. favorite Smile Happy (Runhappy) to run in all three Triple Crown races, his thoughts on the continuing phase-out of Lasix in American racing and more.

Tiz the Bomb, a dual stakes winner and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile turf runner-up at two, bounced back from a seventh-place run in Gulfstream's GIII Holy Bull S. to sweep a pair of synthetic-track stakes at Turfway, and will head to Louisville after being considered for a start at Newmarket in the Apr. 30 G1 2000 Guineas.

“When we ran him in Florida, the colt didn't handle the Gulfstream surface and the kickback,” McPeek said. “That surface is a little bit different, it's deep, sand-based and he just didn't go for it. I sent him to Turfway to get his confidence back in the [John] Battaglia and that worked out. So the natural next step was the Jeff Ruby and he punched, and ran a super race. I actually felt like he would be a great horse to take over for the 2000 Guineas, and the undulation of Newmarket wasn't any harder or actually could be easier than his victory at Kentucky Downs [in the Kentucky Downs Mile S.]. But due to some logistics and technicalities, he's not going to go, and our next option is either a turf race at Churchill or the Kentucky Derby. I really think at this point, the horse probably deserves a chance.”

As for Smile Happy, a no-doubt Derby contender who will make just his second start as a 3-year-old in Saturday's Blue Grass after a runner-up effort in the GII Risen Star S., McPeek said, “This is a really special colt. I've been sitting on this horse like a keg of dynamite for months now. I didn't want more than two preps going into the Kentucky Derby. I think the [Derby qualifying] points he got in Louisiana will more than likely get him in. I want to see him run well in the Blue Grass, obviously, and being a Lexington boy, it's always fun to win the Blue Grass. I didn't want to over-race this horse this winter. I really sat on him for a reason, because I think he's a horse that can handle the progression of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. And you've got to have some juice in the tank for those races. If you're already a little tired or you've overdone it going into those three races, obviously your horse is going to be taxed. But he could set up really well for those.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders' Association, XBTV, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers reacted to Secret Oath (Arrogate)'s valiant but losing performance in the GI Arkansas Derby, the beginning of Bob Baffert's 90-day suspension and the latest shenanigans surrounding banned trainer Wayne Potts. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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LNJ Foxwoods’s Jaime Roth Talks Dual-Hemisphere Success On Writers’ Room

It's been a remarkable few weeks for LNJ Foxwoods and Jaime Roth, with the outfit accomplishing the rare double of graded/group stakes victories in both America and Australia during the month of March. Wednesday, Roth joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland as the Green Group Guest of the Week to discuss GII New Orleans Classic S. winner Olympiad (Speightstown), G1 Coolmore Classic heroine Lighthouse (Mizzen Mast), her affinity for naming horses and much more.

“He's always been a horse that showed tremendous ability,” Roth said of Olympiad, who was off for nearly a year before returning last September and has now recorded three straight open-length successes. “He broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga second time out in 2020 and was prepping for the [GI] Champagne after that. Unfortunately in racing, you have minor setbacks, and our stable personally likes to take as much time as we can and show patience, because we feel that will reward us in the end. He's a beautiful, well-bred horse and it's great, not just for us, but for the racing world to see what I think he can become. It sounds like the [May 6 GII] Alysheba is next. We just got his Ragozin number, which was a four-plus, so he's trending in the right way. He's running better numbers, but not so drastic that you have to worry about bouncing, and his numbers line up with top horses like Life Is Good. I'm not saying we are that by any stretch, but we're starting to fit into the picture of top older horses and I'm just so happy for the horse. For me, it's about him showing the racing community his ability and I'm happy he has a chance to do that now.”

In Lighthouse–a stakes winner in America as a 3-year-old in 2020–LNJ Foxwoods has found a budding down-under star, as the gray has picked up five wins and three seconds in eight starts since relocating across the world, culminating in her Mar. 12 Coolmore Classic conquest.

“LNJ is a very think-outside-the-box operation to try to take advantage of new markets and maybe do things that not everyone is doing,” Roth said. “She was a good horse in the U.S., she won the GIII Music City at Kentucky Downs, but after that, again, had some minor setbacks. I don't think a lot of people realize this, but we already had a few mares down in Australia, including one who had a ton of speed but couldn't quite get the distance here. So we had already had a good experience and thought [Lighthouse] would fit–she's got a lot of speed and is a very big, strong-bodied filly, and I think the change in environment was also key. She was a little high-strung here, and sometimes just doing something new, even going to another country, can be the trick. She trains at the beach, she's happy, she swims with dolphins. And now she's a mature, totally different horse. It's been great to see her excel.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, Lane's End, the Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, XBTV, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers analyzed the 2021 numbers from The Jockey Club's Equine Injury Database and NYRA's decision to kick Wayne Potts and Juan Vazquez off the Belmont grounds, then previewed the penultimate major prep Saturday on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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