Thursday Insights: ‘Rising Star’ Resumes In New Barn at Gulfstream

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8th-Oaklawn, $106K, AOC, 4/up, f/m, 6f, post time: 5:40 p.m. ET
Speedway Stables' AUBERGE (Palace) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' when decimating a field of Santa Anita maidens by 7 3/4 lengths at first asking in October 2019 before completing a Bob Baffert exacta behind Bast (Uncle Mo) in last year's GII Santa Ynez S. The Iowa-bred makes her first appearance since easily taking out a first-level allowance at Santa Anita 13 months ago and has joined the Mike Stidham shedrow, with several good-looking works on display in New Orleans. Auberge, who hails from the female family of champion Banshee Breeze (Unbridled), was a $140,000 Fasig-Tipton November weanling, a $170,000 Keeneland September yearling and was purchased by Speedway for $570,000 at Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream in 2019. She is a half-sister to multiple Iowa-bred stakes winner Theperfectvow (Majesticperfection). TJCIS PPs

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Essential Quality to Blue Grass, Arkansas Derby Next for Caddo River

Defending juvenile champion Essential Quality (Tapit) is expected to make his next start in the Apr. 3 GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, according to trainer Brad Cox Tuesday. The Godolphin homebred, who is slated to post his final major work this Saturday, most recently won the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Feb. 27.

“The Blue Grass is what we have zeroed in on,” confirmed Cox. “He's done extremely well [since the Southwest]. We breezed him last Saturday [Mar. 13], and we clocked him at a half in :48.20, well in hand, and I'm excited about how he looked [5/84]. He galloped out in 1:01 and three, also well in hand.”

He added, “He'll go five-eighths at the Fair Grounds Saturday morning and then on to the Blue Grass.”

Earning TDN Rising Star status following an impressive debut winner at Churchill last September, Essential Quality added consecutive wins in Keeneland's GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity in October and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile back at the Lexington oval Nov. 6.

Also representing Cox on the Triple Crown trail are TDN Rising Star Mandaloun (Into Mischief), slated for Saturday's GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, and Smarty Jones S. scorer Caddo River (Hard Spun), who most recently finished fifth behind dominant winner Concert Tour (Street Sense) in the GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn.

“We weren't quite where needed to be with Caddo River last Saturday [in the GII Rebel S.],” admitted Cox. “Caddo River showed that he wants to be very close, and probably, the longer the distance–a mile and an eighth and beyond–he would likely be more forwardly placed. Hopefully, we can make some adjustments there and we can be back on track for the [GI] Arkansas Derby [Apr. 10].”

Runner-up in his first two career starts in New York last fall, Caddo River posted an eye-catching score going a mile at Churchill Downs Nov. 15.

And while 'Derby Fever' can often prove overwhelming with even one Classic contender, Cox admits he relishes the added pressure.

“There is a lot that goes into the Derby. I think it's more because you're not only watching your horse, but you're also watching every impressive horse throughout the country,” he explained. “When there is a horse that breaks its maiden and you wake up the next morning and there is a new TDN Rising Star on your email, the first thing you do you click and watch the replay. There is definitely more to the Kentucky Derby dream. It represents so many horses and so many people's goals. I really enjoy it. This is what it's all about. Watching other horses' races and trying to figure out how our horses will stack up.”

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‘Rising Star’ Prevalence Stays Unbeaten in Gulfstream Allowance

8th-Gulfstream, $45,000, Alw (NW1$X)/Opt. Clm ($75,000), 3-11, 3yo, 1m, 1:35.82, ft, 3 lengths.

PREVALENCE (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Enrichment, by Ghostzapper), arguably the flashiest debut winner of 2021 thus far, backed up his huge first-out victory with a more workmanlike allowance tally Thursday at Gulfstream in what could serve as a springboard to an April GI Kentucky Derby prep for the Godolphin homebred. Unveiled as a 34-5 proposition in a loaded-looking maiden race going seven panels here Jan. 23, the bay survived a host of pace pressers and burst away in the lane to a devastating, wrapped-up 8 1/2-length score, easily good enough for 'TDN Rising Star' honors. Considered for a run in the Feb. 27 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., he was forced to pass on the race after missing a breeze with a fever. Quickly recovering to post two sharp works at Palm Meadows, Prevalence was pounded down to 1-10 against five overmatched-on-paper rivals here and broke a bit outwardly at the start. Tracking the speed in the clear from second through a modest :23.90 quarter, he turned up the pressure past a swifter :46.35 half and rolled by three-quarters on even terms in 1:10.74 under confident handling. Shaken up by Tyler Gaffalione outside the furlong pole, he scampered clear soon after and didn't face a serious danger from there, hitting the wire three lengths to the good of 32-1 longshot Southern Passage (Super Saver).

“It was probably not as flashy as his first race, but I think we're going to get a lot more out of this race today,” Gaffalione said. “He was definitely more green. He was looking up at the grandstand down the lane. He kind of got lost by himself. I just had to remind him to keep to his task. He has a really bright future. I'm really looking forward to getting to the bottom of him. He didn't disappoint at all today, if anything, I'm even more excited about him because I know, if it comes to it, he will give me some fight.”

The winner is a half to Estihdaaf (Arch), GSW-UAE, $183,491; and Libreta (Girolamo), SW, $128,660. His dam, a full-sister to MGISW Better Lucky (Ghostzapper), has a juvenile Quality Road colt named Emirates Road and foaled a colt by Frosted last term before visiting Uncle Mo. Second dam Sahara Gold (Seeking the Gold) is a GSW daughter of 1995 GI Breeders' Cup Sprint heroine Desert Stormer (Storm Cat). Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan P. Walsh.

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Complexity Hype Carries on to Stud Career

  “He was one of those horses that there was a buzz about before he ever stepped foot on a racetrack,” Airdrie Stud's Bret Jones said of their new addition, Grade I-winning 'TDN Rising Star' Complexity (Maclean's Music–Goldfield, Yes It's True).

A Stonestreet-bred half-brother to a Breeders' Cup runner-up and a $375,000 KEESEP yearling purchase by Mike Ryan, Complexity was the talk of the Saratoga backstretch in the summer of his juvenile season. Horseplayers anticipated the Chad Brown pupil's unveiling after a stretch of speedy breezes, including a five-furlong move in 1:00 2/5 work Aug. 26, but they had to wait until closing day at the Spa for the colt to reach the starting gate.

Sent off as the heavy favorite, the bay took the lead early over a salty maiden field that included eventual graded winner Harvey Wallbanger (Congrats) and dual stakes winner King for a Day (Uncle Mo). He coasted home to win by over four lengths, becoming the third 'Rising Star' of the 2018 Saratoga meet for Klaravich Stables and Chad Brown.

Complexity returned to the starting gate again as the favorite in the GI Champagne S. at Belmont and didn't disappoint as he passed the wire three lengths ahead of Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}).

“Honestly, we would put the Champagne up against any race there is when you're talking about what can make a potential stallion,” Jones said. “He went in 1:34 and change. You look at the honor roll of Champagne winners, it's incredible. It shows what a precocious horse you are and can do it going a mile, which I think is a great indicator of talent.”

The colt failed to fire in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and was sidelined until the summer of his 3-year-old season due to a quarter crack. But he eventually bounced back with a 7 1/4-length win over older horses in November of his sophomore year, earning a three on the Ragozin sheets.

As a 4-year-old last year, he returned to the winner's circle in an allowance at Belmont, besting Win Win Win (Hat Trick {Jpn}), and then got caught by the same rival in the final strides of the GI Forego S.

In his next start, he bested MGISW Code of Honor in the one-mile GII Kelso H.

“He beats an exceptionally-talented horse in Code of Honor and really does it the right way, wins it going away,” Jones noted. “He does it in 1:33 and change. There aren't many exceptional 2-year-olds that can come back and be a top 4-year-old, but that's what this horse did. He ran one of the highest Beyers of any horse last year, running a 110.”

After a fourth-place finish in the 2020 GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Complexity took up stud duty at Airdrie.

“I'm very grateful that we got the opportunity to stay on this horse because everybody who watched the Champagne, I think, was very interested in him as a stallion,” Jones said. “We're very, very grateful to Chad [Brown] and Seth Klarman for giving us the chance. We just always thought he was special and we're going to try hard to make sure he's a special name in this business for a long time.”

Jones said many breeders have been sold on the new stallion prospect upon seeing him in person.

“One of the obvious attractions of Complexity is just how beautiful of a horse he is,” he said. “That's very evident in the price tag and the purchaser. We'd put Mike Ryan's eye above just about anybody who has every looked at a horse. So that was very attractive commercially. $375,000 was the highest price of any Maclean's Music of that crop and he looks every bit the part.”

He continued, “When you combine that with the race record, you have not only what we think is a very commercial sire, we actually have a stallion prospect that we think can get fast horses, which at the end of the day is a lot more important than anything else.”

Complexity joins fellow Klaravich Stables Grade I winner Cloud Computing–who stands at Spendthrift Farm–as the first two sons of Maclean's Music at stud. The Hill 'n' Dale sire entered stud in 2013 with a $6,500 stud fee and has quietly made his way up the general sire's list to earn a nearly quadrupled fee.

 

“You have to love the start he's gotten off to,” Jones said of Maclean's Music. “He's really making his own way from a humble stud fee to really one of the more exciting young stallions in the industry. So to have a really talented son of his is certainly something that attracted us to him.”

Complexity is out of the three-time stakes-producing mare Goldfield (Yes It's True) and is a half-brother to Stonestreet homebred Valadorna (Curlin), who was runner up in the 2016 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and winner of the 2018 GIII Doubledogdare S. at Keeneland.

“It's really brilliance on brilliance,” Jones said of the pedigree. “And with a Stonestreet family, we know the kind of quality they have. It's the type of talent, both top and bottom, that makes you feel really good about putting him in the barn.”

Jones added that with his breeding, Complexity is an easy match for many mares.

“He really goes so well with so many of the important sire lines that you'd like to get as a young stallion,” he said. “He crosses beautifully with A.P. Indy, Storm Cat and so many of the Deputy Minister horses. So he's a very easy horse to breed and we're doing what we really think is important and that's giving him every chance by supporting him.”

Jones reported that 24 Airdrie mares are slated to visit the new addition including Grade I producers Don't Trick Her (Mazel Trick) and Kittery Point (Include), as well as two-time champion producer Ms. Cornstalk (Indian Charlie).

Complexity kicks off his stud career at Airdrie fully booked off a $12,500 initial fee.

“Everything is in place to have a very successful horse,” Jones said. “He's been exceptionally popular. He was booked full almost immediately. He's got every opportunity and I think we've got him priced to where he'll still get those mares in the next couples years. Then after that, it's up to him.”

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