TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 | Horse Racing Free Tips

The Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Seeking Clarity

For the sport's best 3-year-old fillies it's where the rubber meets the road time. The last round of preps for the GI Kentucky Oaks is upon us. In the GII Fair Grounds Oaks and the Bourbonette Oaks, there were a pair of key races last weekend. This week, we have the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks and the GIII Fantasy S. It's a division where, since 2-year-old filly champ Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) finished second at 1-2 in the Feb. 11 Suncoast S. at Tampa, there has been no clear leader. Maybe that will change this weekend or next when Keeneland offers the GI Ashland S., which is expected to include three horses in our top 10. If not, this will go down as one of the most wide-open runnings of the Kentucky Oaks ever.
Somewhat ironically, a star filly did emerge last week in Munnys Gold (Munnings), who got a 106 Beyer and broke the seven-furlong track record when winning the Sophomore Fillies S. at Tampa Bay Downs. She is, by far, the fastest 3-year-old filly in training, but, at least for now, she will stay sprinting for trainer Todd Pletcher.

1) WONDER WHEEL (f, Into Mischief–Wonder Gal, by Tiz Wonderful) O-D. J. Stable LLC. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC & Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $275,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly & MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,570,725. Last Start: 2nd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 48.
It's put-up-or-shut-up time for the filly who maintains the top spot, but only because no one has done anything to take it away from her. It's still hard to fathom that she lost to Dreaming of Snow (Jess's Dream) in the Suncoast S. and had no obvious excuse that day. A repeat effort is not going to get it done in the Ashland or in the Kentucky Oaks. But it's not unreasonable to expect that she will improve off that race and run well enough to win the Ashland. If so, she'll likely be the favorite in the Oaks. We know she won't have any problem with the track at Keeneland. She's 2-for-2 there with wins in the GI Alcibiades S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. After training at Mark Casse's training center throughout the winter, she's moved over to Keeneland for her final preparations.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7

2) BOTANICAL (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Daisy, by Blame)
O-LNJ Foxwoods & Clearsky Farms. B-Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $220,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 6-4-1-0, $374,410. Last Start: Won Bourbonette S. at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.
She's won four in a row with the most recent win coming in the Bourbonette at Turfway. During the streak, no one has come close to her. The only thing-and it's a big thing-that keeps her from being No. 1 in this poll is that all of her wins have come over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Turfway. How will she do on the dirt at Churchill Downs? We won't know until she runs in the Oaks. Outside of her apparent comfort zone on the Tapeta, she's had two other starts, finishing eighth in a maiden on the grass at Kentucky Downs and then second in another turf maiden, this one at Keeneland. She's by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Blame mare, so there's nothing in her pedigree to suggest that she can't handle the dirt.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

3) SOUTHLAWN (f, Pioneerof the Nile–Mo d'Amour, by Uncle Mo) O-Robert Masterson. B-WinStar Farm (Ky). T-Norm Casse. Sales history: $290,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-0-1, $318,369. Last Start: Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.

Southlawn winning the GII Fair Grounds Oaks | Amanda Hodges Weir

One of the storylines for this year's Oaks could be the father-versus-son battle of Mark Casse vs. Norm Casse. Mark trains Wonder Wheel and Norm trains Southlawn, who stormed into our Oaks Top 10 with a 3 1/4-length win in the Fair Grounds Oaks. After two poor performances on the grass and a clunker in the GIII Pocahontas, Southlawn has really come into her own. Before the Fair Grounds Oaks she romped in an allowance race, also at the Fair Grounds. Casse told the Daily Racing Form that the filly's turnaround came following a surgical procedure, known as a myectomy, to clear up a breathing issue. In a division where no one has run particularly fast, she has run back-to-back Beyer figures of 86, which puts her near the head of the class.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

4) WET PAINT (f, Blame–Sky Painter, by Street Cry {Ire}) O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $334,100. Last Start: Won GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.
She might represent Brad Cox's best chance of winning his third Kentucky Oaks in the span of just five years. A Godolphin homebred, she's won two straight and will look to keep the ball rolling Saturday at Oaklawn in the Fantasy S. After the filly was 10th in her debut on the grass at Kentucky Downs, she has improved with each start and has run Beyer figures of 83 in each of her last two races, wins in the Martha Washington S. and the GIII Honeybee S. A late-runner with a potent stretch kick, she should like the Oaks distance of a mile-and-an-eighth. Took a surprising amount of money in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, closing as the favorite at 4-1.
Next Start: GIII Fantasy S., OP, Apr. 1

5) PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-1, $501,310. Last Start: 2nd GII Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 103.
More steady that spectacular. She's won four of six lifetime starts and has never run worse than third. With back-to-back wins in the Untapable S. and the GII Rachel Alexandra S., she was poised to take over leadership of the division, but couldn't get the job done when second in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She didn't run badly but was no match for Southlawn. She'll likely need to improve by three or four lengths to win the Oaks, but that's not impossible. At the very least, you can count on her showing up.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

6) JULIA SHINING (f, Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $204,075. Last Start: 3rd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 16.
Like Wonder Wheel, she needs to step up in the Ashland and show the world why she was regarded as one of the top 2-year-old fillies in training last year. A full-sister to champion Malathaat (Curlin), she was an impressive winner of her debut and then won the GII Demoiselle S., the same race her big sis won in 2020. But she didn't get off to a good start this year, running third in the Suncoast. Though she was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths, at no point did it look like she was going to win the race. Yes, she can run better in the Ashland, but the jury remains out on her.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, April 7

7) AND TELL ME NOLIES (f, Arrogate–Be Fair, by Exchange Rate) O-Peter Redekop B.C., Ltd. B-Lara Run, LLC (Ky). T-Peter Miller. Sales history: $70,000 yrl '21 KEEJAN; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $392,800. Last Start: Second in GIII Santa Ysabel S. at Santa Anita Mar. 5. Kentucky Oaks Points: 30.
It's been a while since a California-based filly won the Oaks, a feat last pulled off by the Bob Baffert-trained Abel Tasman (Quality Road) in 2017. The best 3-year-old filly currently racing in California is Faiza (Girvin), who is also trained by Baffert. But she was not nominated to the Kentucky Oaks. That means that And Tell Me Nolies might be the flagbearer for the West Coast this year. Trained by Peter Miller, the daughter of Arrogate, who sired last year's Kentucky Oaks winner in Secret Oath (Arrogate), she had an outstanding 2-year-old season, winning the GI Del Mar Debutante S. and the GII Chandelier S. There was nothing wrong with her 3-year-old debut, where she finished second behind Faiza in the GIII Santa Ysabel S. Had a seven-furlong work at the San Luis Rey training center on Mar. 25, going in a sharp 1:25.40.
Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 8

Punchbowl | Coady

8) PUNCHBOWL (f, Uncle Mo-Devilish Lady, by Sweetsouthernsaint) O-Gary and Mary West. B-Gary and Mary West Stables Inc. (Ky). T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $150,528. Last Start: Won an allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Mar. 5. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0.
She did not make her debut until Feb. 11, so she has been playing a serious game of catchup ever since. Trained by Cox and owned by Gary and Mary West, she won her debut at six furlongs by three-quarters of a length. But it was her second career start that really picked up some heads. Going a mile-and-a-sixteenth in an Oaklawn allowance race, she coasted to a 4 1/4-length win under Florent Geroux. Talented but untested, she does next in the Ashland, where she'll have the chance to prove just how good she is. Was bet down to 11-1 in the Oaks Future Wager.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7

9) SHIDABHUTI (f, Practical Joke–A. P. Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Peter Brant. B-Gabriel Duignan & Gerry Dilger (Ky).
T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $77,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $310,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $189,600. Last Start: Won Busher S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50.
Still seeking his first win in the Kentucky Oaks, future Hall of Famer Chad Brown has a puncher's chance with Shidabhuti. It's hard to say how good she is. She broke her maiden in September at Monmouth and followed that up with an allowance win in January at Aqueduct. In both races, she didn't beat much and didn't post a fast number. But she was up for the challenge when making her stakes debut in the Mar. 4 Busher S. at Aqueduct, where she won by two lengths. Still needs to prove she can win at the graded stakes level and around two turns.
Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., Aqu, Apr. 7

10) MIRACLE (f, Mendelssohn–Good Omen, by Smart Strike)
O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Magnolia Express (NY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $110,000 wnl '20 FTKNOV; $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $360,000 2yo '22 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 5-1-3-1, $197,400. Last Start: 2nd in GII Rachel Alexandra S. at Churchill Downs. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20.
Will have her chance to earn her way into the Oaks field when she goes Saturday in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, a race that came up light. That's why she's the 5-2 morning line favorite even though she's 1-for-5 lifetime and her only win came in a maiden race for New York breds in her July 27 career debut. Since, she hit the board in three straight stakes for New York breds, finishing off her 2022 campaign with a second-place finish in the Maid of the Mist S. But trainer Todd Pletcher must have had confidence in her as her threw her into the deep end in her 3-year-old debut, sending her out in the Rachel Alexandra. She finished second, just three-quarters of a length behind Pretty Mischievous, showing she can handle open company.
Next Start: GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, GP, Apr. 1

The post The Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Seeking Clarity appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 – Feb. 2

With the runnings of the GIII Las Virgenes S. at Santa Anita and the Martha Washington S. at Oaklawn, there's now a bit more clarity to the division, particularly in California where Las Virgenes winner Faiza (Girvin) look like she is the best of that group. The Martha Washington was won by the Brad Cox-trained Wet Paint (Blame), but she didn't beat a stellar group and will have to wait for another day to make this list. This will be a quiet weekend for the 3-year-old fillies. Gulfstream does offer the GIII Forward Gal S., but it is a seven-furlong race and most of the entrants look to be sprinters.

1) WONDER WHEEL (f, Into Mischief–Wonder Gal, by Tiz Wonderful) O-D. J. Stable LLC. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC & Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $275,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-1-0, $1,550,725. Last Start: Won GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland Nov. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: Suncoast S., Tam, Feb. 11

The Eclipse Award-winning filly continues to progress while training at Mark Casse's training center. She worked five furlongs in 59 last week and is gearing up for what will be her 3-year-old debut in the Feb. 11 Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs. “After an easy breeze last week, Wonder Wheel is on course to run in the Suncoast Stakes.,” said DJ Stable General Manager Jon Green. “She may be a tad light from a fitness standpoint, but we prefer two-turn options over the other possible preps. Tyler Gaffalione will have the mount in the Suncoast.” The Suncoast will not be an easy spot as the race is also expected to include GII Demoiselle S. winner Julia Shining (Curlin), so it will be a good test for the champion. Wonder Wheel's Eclipse Award was the second in the juvenile fillies category for DJ Stable, which also won the award in 2018 with Jaywalk (Cross Traffic).

2) HOOSIER PHILLY (f, Into Mischief–Tapella, by Tapit) O-Gold Standard Racing Stable, LLC. B-Candy Meadows, LLC (Ky). T-Thomas Amoss. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $432,610. Last Start: Won GII Golden Rod S. at Churchill Downs Nov. 26. Kentucky Oaks Points: 10
Next Start: GII Rachel Alexandra S., FG, Feb. 18

Hoosier Philly had her first published workout of the year last Saturday, breezing four furlongs in 47.40 at the Fair Grounds. “When she worked this past weekend I saw the same horse that I have been seeing since she first came to the track, which is good,” trainer Tom Amoss said. “I am really pleased that she is enthusiastic about her training. I like her development physically, as well.” The Into Mischief filly remains on target for the Feb. 18 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds. Should she win that day Amoss will need to make a decision about her future plans, which, he has said all along, could include a start in the GI Kentucky Derby. “We're running in the Rachel Alexandra and will see how she does,” Amoss said in regards to the Derby question. “I can't comment beyond that. I haven't thought that much about it.” A very exciting prospect who could ultimately land in the top spot in this poll, her 3-year-old debut will be a must-see event.

3) FAIZA (f, Girvin–Sweet Pistol, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-Brereton C. Jones (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $90,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $725,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $222,000. Last Start: Won the GI Starlet S. at Los Alamitos on Dec. 10. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0. Next Start: To Be Determined.

With her win in the Las Virgenes, Faiza became the clear leader of the 3-year-old filly division in California. A member of the loaded Bob Baffert stable, she's done nothing wrong. A $725,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Midatlantic 2-Year-Olds Sale, she's now 3-for-3 and her record includes a victory in the GI Starlet S. But while she's getting the job done, she's not blowing anyone away. She won the Starlet by a head and the Las Virgenes by a half-length, each time beating Pride of the Nile. Also, she hasn't been running particularly fast as her 77 Beyer in the Las Virgenes equaled her career best. Then again, she's undefeated, a Grade I winner, cost $725,000 at the sales and is trained by Bob Baffert, all of which makes her a formidable member of this division. Was ridden by Ramon Vazquez in the Las Virgenes, after Flavien Prat was the pilot in her two prior starts.

4) ICE DANCING (f, Frosted–Welcome Dance, by Henny Hughes) O-Perry R Bass, II & Ramona Bass. B-Bass Stables, LLC (Ky). T-Richard Mandella. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-0-2, $219,600. Last Start: Won GIII Santa Ynez S. at Santa Anita Jan. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 12. Next Start: To Be Determined

Ice Dancing | Benoit Photo

After winning the GIII Santa Ynez S. on Jan. 8, she sat out the Las Virgenes because trainer Richard Mandella wanted to space her races apart. Still, she's been busy in the mornings, having had two four furlong works since her last race. She's been a completely new horse after finishing fourth, beaten six lengths, in the GII Chandelier S. in October. Mandella regrouped and put her in a maiden race, which she won by a length. Next up was a convincing 3 1/4 length win in the Santa Ynez. If she doesn't progress from here, her connections can always try her on the turf. She is out of Welcome Dance (Henny Hughes), a two-time stakes winner on the grass who started just once on the dirt.

5) MUNNYS GOLD (f, Munnings–Haraawa, by Medaglia D'Oro) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Robert E. and Lawana L. Low; B-Nicksar Farms; T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $300,000 ylr '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0. Last Start: Won an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 4 or Any Limit S., GP, Mar. 18

After turning in an eye-catching performance in June at Monmouth, where she won by 14 ½ lengths and earned a 101 Beyer figure, Munnys Gold disappeared, only to return last week at Gulfstream in a six-furlong allowance race for Florida-breds. Sent off at 1-20, she won by 6 1/4 lengths and this time got an 88 Beyer. We know she's fast, but is she a two-turn horse, an Oaks candidate? Trainer Todd Pletcher is waiting to find out. “She's a bit headstrong so she'll have to convince me that she wants to stretch out,” Pletcher said. The GII Davona Dale S. at a mile on March 4 is a possibility, but so is the six-furlong Any Limit S. On March 18. If Pletcher chooses the shorter race that would be a pretty good sign that he doesn't think this one is Oaks material.

6) LEAVE NO TRACE (f, Outwork–Tanquerray, by Good Journey) O-WellSpring Stables. B-Red Cloak Farm, LLC (Ky). T-Philip Serpe. Sales history: $8,000 yrl '21 FTFFEB; $40,000 yrl '21 FTMOCT. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $598,650. Last Start: 2nd in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland Nov. 4.Kentucky Oaks Points: 15. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 4.

Gearing up for the Davona Dale S., Leave No Trace has had three published workouts this year for trainer Phil Serpe. The GII Gulfstream Parks Oaks will be next and then, if she continues to progress, a run in the Kentucky Oaks. She's come quite a long way after being purchased out of the Fasig-Tipton Midatlantic 2-Year-Olds Sale for just $40,000. Before that, she sold for $8,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky February Mixed Sale. After winning the GI Spinaway S., she finished second in the GI Frizette S. and then second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Leave No Trace was the first graded stakes winner for sire Outwork. She was the first Grade I winner for trainer Phil Serpe since Birdonthewire (Proud Birdie) won the 1994 Vosburgh S.

7) JULIA SHINING (f, Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $194,075. Last Start: Won the GII Demoiselle S. at Aqueduct Dec. 3. Kentucky Oaks Points: 10
Next Start: Suncoast S., Tam, Feb. 11

Curlin has been on quite a run, one that includes being the sire of three of 2022's Eclipse Awards winners. In Julia Shining, he has another horse with a world of potential. A full-sister to Eclipse Award winner Malathaat (Curlin), she's 2-for-2 and coming off a win in the GII Demoiselle S. It's hard to know what to make of that race. She won by just a neck and, as the 55-100 favorite, didn't exactly square off against stellar competition. But with her pedigree and her late-running style, she has looked like a horse who will only get better at three. How good is she? We'll find out soon as she is scheduled to take on champion Wonder Wheel in the Feb. 11 Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs.

8) THE ALYS LOOK (f, Connect–Foul Play, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Ike and Dawn Thrash. B-G. Watts Humphrey (Ky). T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $60,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-1, $150,528. Last Start: Won the Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds Jan. 21. Kentucky Oaks Points: 24. Next Start: GII Fair Grounds Oaks, FG, Mar. 25

The Alys Look | Hodges Photography / Jamie Newell

Brad Cox has several Oaks candidates, though none that, at least so far, are regarded as among the best in the division. The Alys Look fits that bill. Just a $60,000 yearling buy, she outran stablemate and beaten Juvenile Fillies favorite Chop Chop (City of Light) to win her 3-year-old debut in the Silverbulletday S. at the Fair Grounds. She will no doubt need to improve in order to be able to knock off the best of her division, but one of Cox's strengths is his ability to get horses to peak at the most opportune time.

9) JUSTIQUE (f, Justify–Grazie Mille, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-C R K Stable, LLC. B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (Ky). T-John A Shirreffs. Sales history: $725,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 3-2-0-1, $132,000. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Las Virgenes S. at Santa Anita Jan. 28. Kentucky Oaks Points: 9. Next Start: To Be Determined.

The John Shirreffs-trained filly has run four times and has looked sensational twice and rather ordinary twice. The latest disappointment came in the Las Virgenes where she was a third-place finisher and lost by three lengths. The other sub-par effort came in the Chandelier, where she was a non-threatening third. The connection is that both those races were around two turns where her better starts came around one turn. So is she just a one-turn horse? Maybe. Yet that doesn't make a lot of sense. By Justify out of a Bernardini mare, she's bred to go long and her late-kick closing style also suggest a horse who should like a distance. She missed a scheduled start in the Santa Ynez when sick, so maybe she needed the start in the Las Virgenes. But she still has to prove that she can get a distance. The jury remains out.

10) OCCULT (f, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-Alpha Delta Stables, LLC. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $625,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-0-0, $107,450. Last Start: Won the Busanda S. at Aqueduct Jan. 14. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20. Next Start: To Be Determined

Looks like the best of the bunch when it comes to 3-year-old fillies training in New York. After breaking her maiden in her second career start, she was a handy winner of the Jan. 14 Busanda S. at Aqueduct for trainer Chad Brown. Brown is shopping for a spot for her next start. Don't get caught up on the fact that she's a New York winter horse. She's obviously got some quality and Brown has used the New York route in the past with a number of good horses.

The post The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 – Feb. 2 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Apr. 7

The GI Longines Kentucky Oaks will be overshadowed by the GI Kentucky Derby, but maybe that shouldn't be the case. The Oaks is absolutely loaded, perhaps the deepest in many years. In any other year, Secret Oath (Arrogate), Echo Zulu (Gun Runner), Kathleen O. (Upstart) or Adare Manor (Uncle Mo) would be an obvious heavy favorite. This year, a horse like the undefeated Kathleen O. might be third choice in the wagering at, say, 7-2 or 4-1. After a busy Saturday last week, which included Secret Oath's third-place finish against the boys in the GI Arkansas Derby, it will be another busy week for fillies eyeing the Oaks, kicking off with Friday's GI Central Bank Ashland S. at Keeneland. Saturday's action will include the GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct and the GII Santa Anita Oaks.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-4-0-2, $590,167. Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 60.

After his filly failed to win the Arkansas Derby, trainer Wayne Lukas confirmed that Secret Oath will go next in the Kentucky Oaks. That's the right call. She needed to win the Arkansas Derby to warrant a start against males on the first Saturday in May. Though she didn't win, she turned in a terrific performance when facing the boys. Once she wound up last and wide down the backside, she was in trouble. An eye-catching middle move took her all the way to second position in the stretch, but she couldn't sustain her bid. Afterward, Lukas said that jockey Luis Contreras will keep the mount for the Oaks. Based on her solid performance in the Arkansas Derby and all the hype she garnered for her three dominant efforts before that–most of it justified–she'll probably be the favorite in the Oaks. It's been 32 years since Lukas has won this race. It would have been a better story had she gone in the Derby, but it will be hard not to root for the Coach to pull this one off.

2) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $379,730. Last Start: 1st GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Next Start: GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, GP, Apr. 2. KY Oaks Points: 150.

What a nice filly. She's 4-for-4 and has been visually impressive in each of her starts, the most recent being the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. It wasn't a tough race and the only horse in there that possibly could have beaten her was Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft), who finished second. But she did everything right…again. She sat back early, started rolling approaching the far turn and then ran away from the competition in the stretch to win under a mild drive.

“She has strong power at the finish,” winning rider Javier Castellano said. “I like the way she did it today, nice and easy with a strong finish. She has a lot of potential. I think she's going to be fun in the future.”

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has done a masterful job bringing her along. Her first three Beyer numbers were, in order, a 67, a 78 and then an 85. That raised the question as to whether or not she was fast enough, but that was put to rest when she improved again and ran a 98 Beyer in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Going into this weekend, that's the fastest number among all the fillies eyeing the Oaks. Can she improve some more? Yes. Does she have to improve to win the Kentucky Oaks? Maybe not.

3) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 130.

An undefeated champion and she may not be the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, which tells you what an incredibly strong group this is. There is so much to like. She was brilliant last year and is in the hands of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. She has never lost. But…How good was her comeback race? That is the question. For the first time in her career, she had to work for the win, beating Hidden Connection (Connect) by just a nose as the 1-10 favorite. The Beyer number was not great–the 88 was the slowest of her career. So, there are two schools of thought: 1) She has not improved from last year and it will catch up to her in the Oaks; 2) Asmussen didn't have her at all cranked up for her 3-year-old debut, she learned how to fight in the Fair Grounds race, and will run much better in the Kentucky Oaks. Which will it be?

4) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $56,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Las Virgenes S. Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 0.

She's been out of sight and out of mind since winning the GIII Las Virgenes by 13 lengths all the way back on Feb. 6 for then trainer Bob Baffert. But, let's not forget, that was a huge performance and it earned her a 94 Beyer. Baffert elected to give her some time off afterward and gear up for this Saturday's GII Santa Anita Oaks. With Baffert's suspension pending, she's been in the barn of new trainer Tim Yakteen for about two weeks. Last Saturday, Yakteen sent her out for a five-furlong work in 1:00.20. The trainer change shouldn't be a concern. Baffert did most of the heavy lifting to get her to this point and Yakteen is perfectly capable. She could easily win the Santa Anita race in a blowout fashion, which would mean she'd come to Churchill Downs as hot as any horse on this list. She has no points because Baffert trainees weren't eligible to earn points in any of the preps. She'll likely need to run first or second Saturday to make it in, but that shouldn't be a problem.

5) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $265,000. Last Start: 1st Suncoast S. Next Start: GI Central Bank Ashland S., KEE, Apr. 8. KY Oaks Points: 20.

Another horse we haven't heard from in a while, Nest is the 2-1 morning line favorite for Friday's Ashland at Keeneland. She is the deserving favorite, but it's not an easy spot as the competition includes the very fast Happy Soul (Runhappy) and the Brad Cox-trained Interstatedaydream (Classic Empire), an 8 1/4-length allowance winner on Mar. 13 at Oaklawn. Trainer Todd Pletcher has really taken his time with this filly. After she beat a very good field in the GII Demoiselle on Dec. 4, she didn't show up again until besting some tomato cans in the Feb. 12 Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs. That race proved little. For her, the Ashland is the real test, and should she win it, she'll be yet another horse who might have been favored in any other year only to go off at 5-1 or 6-1 in this year's Oaks.

6) HAPPY SOUL (Runhappy–Cowgirl Lucky, by Stephen Got Even) O-Gayla Rankin; B-Harris Training Center, LLC (KY); T-Wesley Ward. Sales History: $50,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MSW, 4-3-1-0, $238,500. Last Start: 1st Dixie Belle S. Next Start: Next Start: GI Central Bank Ashland S., KEE, Apr. 8. KY Oaks Points: 0.

Finally, her big test. Happy Soul drew post six for the Ashland, a race that will go a long way toward deciding her future. We know she can run. She won her last three starts by a combined 26 1/4 lengths. But those were all held at a six furlongs or shorter and her sire was an Eclipse Award-winning sprinter. Having to stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs for the Ashland will pose a huge test. Is she a Kentucky Oaks horse or a horse who belongs in sprint races? Coming off a win in the Dixie Belle S., where she completed the first quarter in :21 1/5, she should go right to the lead in the Ashland and play a game of catch-me-if-you-can. We know Jim McIngvale will be rooting for her.

7) HIDDEN CONNECTION (Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again) O-Hidden Brook Farm & Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $49,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $399,525. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 57.

If someone other than the big three or four is going to win the Oaks, it may just be this filly. She's been a little up and down in her career. She looked like a star in the making when winning the GII Pocahontas S. by 9 1/4 lengths last September, but then was outrun in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She followed that with a fourth-place finish as the 2-1 favorite in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. That made it look like she wasn't quite good enough to compete against the very best, but then she rebounded with a big effort in the Fair Grounds Oaks to almost pull off the upset against Echo Zulu. The good Hidden Connection will have to show up for her to have any chance in the Kentucky Oaks, but there's every chance that can happen.

8) VENTI VALENTINE (Firing Line–Glory Gold, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-NY Final Furlong Racing Stable & Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Final Furlong Racing Stable & Maspeth Stable (NY); T-Jorge Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & GSP, 4-3-1-0, $366,250. Last Start: 1st Busher Invitational S. Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 54.

No matter how she fares this weekend, she figures to be double-digit odds in the Kentucky Oaks. Again, that tells you just how strong this field looks to be. A New York-bred who kicked off her career with back-to-back wins against state breds, including one in the Maid of the Mist S., the best race of her life was the only one she lost. She gave Nest the fight of her life when finishing second, beaten only a neck, in the GII Demoiselle. She followed that with a seven-length romp in the Busher Invitational. The New York route to the Kentucky Oaks is not always the strongest, but this one should emerge as the biggest threat among that contingent.

9) YUUGIRI (Shackleford–Yuzuru, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Sekie Yoshihara & Tsunebumi Yoshihara (KY); T-Rodolphe Brisset. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $543,610. Last Start: 1st GIII Fantasy S. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 114.

This daughter of Shackleford makes the list after winning the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn. Would she have won if Secret Oath were in there? Probably not. She finished third behind Secret Oath, beaten 9 1/4 lengths, in the GIII Honeybee S. in her prior start. Most likely, she benefitted from the Fantasy being an easy spot. She did show a lot of talent when breaking her maiden, winning by 7 1/4 lengths back in September at Churchill. But she failed to back that up when a distant second, beaten 10 3/4 lengths, in the Rags to Riches S. Has earned her way into the Kentucky Oaks, but hard to see her being a major factor in that race.

10) SHAHAMA (Munnings–Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) 'TDN Rising Star' O-KHK Racing; B-SF Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $425,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, $223,670. Last Start: 1st G3 UAE Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Not sure what to make of this filly, who is unbeaten in four starts, but has never raced outside of Dubai. Also notable that since her last start, in the Feb. 18 GIII UAE Oaks, she has had only one listed workout. That was a four-furlong breeze in :49.10 on Apr. 1 at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher. You can't blame her connections for giving the Kentucky Oaks a try, but this is not the sort of year where a mystery horse out of Dubai can win it. Would have to be something super special to pull this off.

The post TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Apr. 7 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Apr. 1

The big story last week was the return of Eclipse Award winner Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) in the GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks, which she won by a nose over Hidden Connection (Connect) to stay unbeaten in five career starts. There will be plenty going on Saturday, with Secret Oath (Arrogate) stepping outside of her division to take on males in the GI Arkansas Derby and Kathleen O. (Upstart) looking to stay hot in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. A GI Kentucky Oaks contender could also come out of the $250,000 Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $285,167. Last Start: 1st GIII Honeybee S. Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 2. KY Oaks Points: 60.

This could be the last week that Secret Oath is included in our Oaks rankings as there's a strong chance that after Saturday she will be off the Oaks trail and instead on her way to the GI Kentucky Derby. How she performs in the Arkansas Derby will likely decide just that. Should she beat the boys Saturday, it's hard to imagine that trainer Wayne Lukas and owners Rob and Stacy Mitchell won't take what would be the next logical step and go in the Derby.

The Secret Oath team has found the perfect spot to test their star filly against males. She's the 5-2 morning line favorite in a $1.25-million race and will likely go off lower than that versus what is not a particularly strong group of male rivals. She is the only horse in the race to run a Beyer number in the 90s, something she has done twice. They have nothing to lose by trying this. Should she win, she would likely be on track for the Derby. If she falls short, they can go back to Plan A and run in the Oaks. A fascinating story. Will be fun to see how this plays out Saturday.

2) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 130.

What should we make of her narrow win Saturday in the Fair Grounds Oaks? It's not an easy question to answer. On the one hand, it was her first start after a lengthy layoff and trainer Steve Asmussen had been saying all along that he hadn't really cranked his filly up just yet. She also showed some grit and determination to prevail over a quality rival in Hidden Connection. All signs point to her running better in the Oaks. Then again…weren't you expecting more?

She is a champion and a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and some thought she might be better than the best of the boys. It wasn't unreasonable to expect that she would thrash her rivals, win by six or seven while crossing the wire with her ears pricked. It's also worth noting that she got an 88 Beyer, making this the slowest race of her career. Is the 5-2 favorite in the Oaks Future Wager. Not all great 2-year-olds turn into great 3-year-olds. The jury is out.

3) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $56,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Las Virgenes S. Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 0.

Unraced since romping by 13 lengths in the GIII Las Virgenes S. on Feb. 6 at Santa Anita, she has been transferred to the barn of former Bob Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen. Owner Michael Lund Petersen was forced to make the move because it looks like Baffert will not be eligible to start any horses in the Oaks due to his problems stemming from the betamethasone positive from last year's Derby.

Because Baffert-trained horses were not eligible to earn Kentucky Oaks points, Adare Manor doesn't have any yet. But that shouldn't be a problem. She will be the heavy favorite next week in the GII Santa Anita Oaks and a win or even a second-place finish there should get her to the Kentucky Oaks. A daughter of Uncle Mo, she took a little while to get good, but started to put things together when winning a Jan. 7 maiden at Santa Anita by 12 lengths. With two straight Beyer numbers of 94, she has the top figures so far among any of the fillies eyeing the Kentucky Oaks.

4) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $226,280. Last Start: 1st GII Davona Dale S. Next Start: GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, GP, Apr. 2. KY Oaks Points: 50.

She's 3-for-3 and has been visually impressive in each of her starts. She passed a big test last out when beating graded company for the first time in the GII Davona Dale S., which she won by two lengths. She takes her time to get going in her races, but when she does she launches a kick that is something to see.

Hard to imagine she originally sold for just $8,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November sale before selling for $50,000 at the OBS October Yearling Sale and then for $250,000 at the 2021 OBS April Sale.

She'll stretch out from a one-turn mile to a two-turn mile-and-sixteenth Saturday in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, but that doesn't figure to be a problem. If anything, the two turns and the longer distance should result in an improved effort. On the Beyer scale, she's improving. Went from a 67 in debut to a 78 in the Cash Run S. to an 85 in the Davona Dale. She'll need to up her numbers to win the Kentucky Oaks, but no reason why an improving filly in the hands of Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey can't do just that.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Nest is the winner of last year's GII Demoiselle S. at Aqueduct, which has emerged as a key race. Nest came back to win the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs and runner-up Venti Valentine (Firing Line) won the Busher S. at Aqueduct. Magic Circle (Kantharos) also emerged from that race to win a stakes and Nostalgic (Medaglia d'Oro) recently romped in an allowance race at Gulfstream. Nest won the Demoiselle by just a neck, but obviously beat some good horses. Didn't prove much when beating inferior rivals as the 3-10 favorite in the last, but did what was required of her.

Goes next in the GI Ashland S. at Keeneland, which will be a much tougher test. This is a good one. Very much a contender to win the Kentucky Oaks.

Wesley Ward certainly knows what he is doing and he is confident that this very fast daughter of Runhappy can stretch her speed around two turns.

“We're going to take it one race at a time and see how she runs in the Ashland before deciding on the Kentucky Oaks,” Ward said. “She had an awesome work over the Keeneland main track (six furlongs in 1:12) the other day. [Exercise rider] Julio Garcia was beaming after the work. He was going crazy when he got off her.”

The Ashland will be a huge test. Even though Happy Soul has won her last three starts by a combined 26 1/4 lengths, she's never gone beyond six furlongs. Has a ton of ability. The distance is the only question, and it's a big one.

She dropped off the list after finishing fourth in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. in her 3-year-old debut. After losing by just a nose to champion Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she is back. Showed a new dimension in the Fair Grounds Oaks, closing from fourth after taking the early lead in her prior start. But…was she that good or did Echo Zulu put in a sub-par performance?

Showed a lot of promise last year when winning the GIII Pocahontas S. by 9 1/4 lengths, but didn't back that up when a distant fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Probably not quite as talented as the top three or four on this list, but is a solid filly, a graded stakes winner and is in the capable hands of trainer Bret Calhoun.

Will look to give up-and-coming trainer Jorge Abreu his first graded stakes win. A native of the Dominican Republic, Abreu has been training only since 2016 and had his best year ever when his stable earned over $2 million in 2021. Abreu has served as the assistant to John Terranova, Nick Zito and Chad Brown.

This New York-bred filly won a pair of state-bred races last year before losing by just a neck to Nest in the Demoiselle. She followed that up with a blowout seven-length win in the Busher S., which was a tougher spot than one would ordinarily expect from a non-graded race. In most any other year would be a top three or four contender for the Kentucky Oaks, but not among this loaded group.

9) SHAHAMA (Munnings–Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) 'TDN Rising Star' O-KHK Racing; B-SF Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $425,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, $223,670. Last Start: 1st G3 UAE Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Arrived in the Pletcher barn after winning the GIII UAE Oaks on Feb. 18 for trainer Fawzi Nass and owner KHK Racing. Is 4-for-4 in her career, with all her races coming in Dubai. Half-sister to champion Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) sold for $425,000 last year as a 2-year-old at OBS April. Really hard to get a read on her. Cost a lot and obviously has some talent, but there's no telling how the competition she faced in Dubai stacks up to what she'll meet in the Kentucky Oaks. Is going to have to be very good to beat the kind of field she is set to face at Churchill Downs.

10) CLASSY EDITION (Classic Empire–Newbie, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Robert E & Lawana L Low; B-Chester & Mary R. Broman (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $550,000 2yo '21 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: MSW & GSP, 4-3-1-0, $223,450. Last Start: 2nd GII Davona Dale S. Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., Aqu, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 20.

The third of three Pletcher-trained fillies to make the list. Bought for $550,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old sale, the filly showed something when second to the highly regarded Kathleen O. In the Davona Dale. Another New York-bred, she has never run beyond a mile or around two turns, so the Gazelle at nine furlongs, should be a good test for her. Appears to be on the improve, but needs to show more to win the Kentucky Oaks.

The post TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Apr. 1 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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