TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin

A trio of graded stakes preps in Florida, California and New York yielded a reshuffled deck this past weekend as we edge within the two-month mark for the May 6 GI Kentucky Derby.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: Won GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 90.

'TDN Rising Star' and juvenile champ Forte muscles into the top spot for the first time based on his overall, six-race body of work as much as the powerhouse performance he delivered when romping in his first sophomore start, the GII Fountain of Youth S.

If you liked his athletic, win-from-any-spot tactics and head-of-the-stretch blast-offs at age two, you had to love the way this son of Violence prowled around the short-stretch 1 1/16-mile configuration on Saturday, giving the impression he had the field at his mercy the entire trip while never being over-ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

From a numbers perspective, Forte's 98 Beyer Speed Figure does represent a two-point regression from the 100 he earned when winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile four months ago. But the visual image of this colt soaring home while geared down and never fully extended should trump any by-the-numbers concerns about whether he's moved forward since November.

Trainer Todd Pletcher had stated before the start of 2023 that Forte would likely take a two-prep path to Louisville, with the second race being either the GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. Forte is now undefeated over both of those surfaces, lending an additional edge, although trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that he is leaning toward the Florida Derby as his preference.

2) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544,275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is one of three horses ranked within the Top 12 to have only two starts by the first week in March. But unlike the other two colts ranked deeper down the list, his whopping auction price ($2.3 million OBSAPR sales topper after initially selling for $250,000 at KEESEP), two scintillating wins and outsized public expectations will put quite a bit more pressure on him to win the Derby off a schedule that trainer Tim Yakteen said will only include one more prep.

The race spacing will be additionally unconventional, because if Arabian Knight starts next in either the GI Santa Anita Derby or the GI Arkansas Derby as expected, that will leave him with a base of just three lifetime races spread relatively far apart (November, January, April) before attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

The question will come down to whether his raw talent can overcome what looks like a very narrow foundation. But right now, if you lined up the dozen horses on this list in the gate, you wouldn't get much argument against Arabian Knight being the “speed of the speed.” And considering that speed-centric horses who raced either on the front end or just off it have won eight of the last nine Derbies, that trend tilts the tactical advantage in this colt's favor.

After unseasonably wet weather delayed Arabian Knight's training for more than 2 1/2 weeks, he was back on the Santa Anita work tab Saturday for the first time since Feb. 13, with a five-eighths move clocked in :59.20 (3/71).

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice looms as the legit favorite when entries get drawn on Wednesday for Saturday's GIII Tampa Bay Derby.

This $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit brings an upward- trending 73-87-92 Beyer progression into his first two-turn try after eye-catching wins in two of three one-turn-miles at Aqueduct and Gulfstream. But he'll have to come off Lasix (used once, in his most recent Feb 4. Start) as he ventures into stakes company for the first time.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Derby five times, and it's also of note that despite having two horses ranked on this list who have already won over the Tampa surface this meet (Nos. 10 and 11), he is instead aiming them both for the GII Louisiana Derby in deference to sending Tapit Trice to Tampa.

Luis Saez, who has ridden Tapit Trice only once–in the colt's most recent start–will be aboard. To keep the mount, Saez had to make the difficult decision to vacate the same-day call this coming Saturday aboard the returning GI Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (Arrogate) in Oaklawn's GII Azeri S., a filly he has ridden in her last six races.

4) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Pierre Amestoy Jr, Leslie Amestoy & Roger K Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last start: Won GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) executed the biggest leapfrog of the season by emphatically winning Saturday's GII San Felipe S., going from unranked to No. 4 on this list.

Have to admit I wasn't initially wowed by his 10-1 win in the Dec. 17 GII Los Alamitos Futurity (88 Beyer) because that race gave off an aberrational vibe–the 2-5 favorite abruptly dropped back and finished last after an ideal stalking trip, and this son of Practical Joke scooted up the inside to pass a drifting, tiring pacemaker. But three months later, we saw a sturdier, more confident colt who looked dialed in the entire trip.

After minor brushing and bumping leaving the gate, jockey Ramon Vazquez carved out a sweet stalking spot, and Practical Move was unbothered by a rank horse to his outside on the first turn before responding to a rating hold, biding his time behind legit splits. He edged up incrementally to jointly attain second, but on the far bend, Practical Move was briefly hemmed in with nowhere to go at the fence and he lost momentum for several strides, regressing to fourth.

Vazquez remained patient and committed to his spot, and when the tired pacemaker drifted out to the four path at the quarter pole, Practical Move quickened on cue to win by 2 1/2 lengths with another inside stretch run (100 Beyer). This one, though, looked stronger and better composed than his previous winning move.

There have been 15 Derby qualifying stakes at 1 1/16 miles on dirt so far in 2022-23. Practical Move now owns the two fastest clockings–1:41.65 in the Los Al Futurity and 1:42.10 in the San Felipe.

5) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: Second in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20

Geaux Rocket Ride broke running and hounded the pacemaker through brisk fractions nearly every step of the trip in the San Felipe S. on Saturday. Despite having to shift inward and off the heels of tiring leaders at the head of the homestretch, this $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) still finished resolutely at the rail to end up 2 1/2 lengths behind winner Practical Move and 1 1/4 lengths ahead of the third-place horse.

He was credited with a 96 Beyer for his stakes and two-turn debut, four points higher than his blitzing MSW win over six furlongs back on Jan. 29.

Trainer Richard Mandella told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the Santa Anita Derby is likely next. “On the path we're talking [about], everything would have to be perfect, but he's a pretty good horse,” the understated Hall-of-Fame conditioner said.

6) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-2-2-0, $326,538. Last Start: Second GII Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40

This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) broke fluidly from post seven in the Fountain of Youth S., conceded the lead, then was a close-up fourth while three wide into the clubhouse turn. He methodically kept advancing his position while tucked between rivals on the backstretch, then was second out from the rail when the field fanned out four across the track at the top of the stretch.

Rocket Can got a touch tired but never stopped grinding away, and although no one in that stakes was in the same league as the winner, Forte, this colt landed second while upping his GIII Holy Bull S. winning Beyer by nine points, from 82 to 91.

“It was a good trip. I ended up where I wanted to be,” said jockey Junior Alvarado. “The only thing was on the backside we were putting a little bit of pressure. From [:24.05] the first part we had to speed it up to [:23.60] the second quarter. Normally we do that the other way around, but he was there.

“Every time I ride him, he's a different horse in the post parade, a different dimension. We're trying to figure it out. I just think he hasn't matured yet. He comes here and he's very playful. I don't think he's put it all together. I take that as a good thing. Hopefully when he puts it together we can gain a few more lengths,” Alvarado said.

7) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One still has to work on his lead-changing skills and he drops frighteningly far back off the pace. He's also never won on dirt. But you can see flashes that this still-learning chestnut “gets it” based on his last two races, which were runner-up efforts behind the Nos. 1 and 9 horses on this list in January and February stakes on the Oaklawn prep path.

With seven starts, experience over varied types of wet and dry footing, and a fairly obvious “longer-the-better” development arc, trainer Steve Asmussen said after the GII Rebel S. that Red Route One might try the 1 3/16-mile GII Louisiana Derby in his next race.

A Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred by Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Untapable, he's already racked up enough points to be seventh on the qualifying list. So long as he keeps coming close in major stakes, Red Route One wouldn't even have to win a sophomore prep to emerge as a plausible long shot in Louisville.

Like any deep closer, he'd be at the mercy of the pace and the luck of the trip. But it's not too hard to envision this colt getting completely ignored in the Derby betting, building momentum from far back, and storming down the Churchill Downs stretch with abandon at something like 40-1.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Instant Coffee has put together a commendable four-race progression that includes a win sprinting seven furlongs at Saratoga first time out at 14-1 odds, plus two scores over 1 1/16 miles in which he's taken the overland route from far back to win as the favorite in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and the GIII Lecomte S.

Nestled in between his maiden victory and those stakes tallies is a fourth-place try in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. that shouldn't be overlooked, because that Keeneland stakes was the deepest, most productive 2-year-old race from last autumn (five next-out winners, including four in stakes).

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) will next target the Louisiana Derby, and you'd think the long Fair Grounds stretch would benefit his off-the-tailgate style.

But just two preps at age three? From 2017 through 2022, horses with only two sophomore starts prior to the Kentucky Derby are a collective 0-for-34. However, that two-at-three template worked much better over the previous decade, producing eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016.

9) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

What a great story line it'll be if an unheralded colt with a royal pedigree makes it into the gate for the Derby. Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., cost just $25,000 as a late-sale KEESEP bargain despite his dam, Eblouissante (Bernardini), being 'TDN Rising Star' half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}).

Beyond the underdog appeal, let's not forget that blue-collar steals been very real Derby threats in recent years. Three of the last four horses to cross the finish wire first in the Derby were sold (or offered for sale) comparatively cheap: the DQ'd Maximum Security in 2019 (ran for a $16,000 maiden-claiming tag); the DQ'd-but-under-appeal Medina Spirit in 2021 (sold for $1,000 and then $35,000 at auction), and Rich Strike in 2022 (claimed for $30,000 at age two).

This efficient-striding son of Candy Ride (Arg) capitalized off an ideal speed setup for his 94-Beyer Oaklawn victory, and you can expect handicappers will hold that against him next time out. They will argue that Confidence Game had everything his own way, pace-wise, then benefitted from taking a wide path to victory while the inside contenders were mired in a muddy traffic jam.

Those skeptics just might be right. But this is what overachievers do–they exceed expectations when odds are stacked against them. I wouldn't be surprised if Confidence Game has another big race in him yet.

10) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-Parks Investment Group LLC (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG; $800,000 2yo '22 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,300. Last start: Won allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Feb. 12. KY Derby points: 0

Kingsbarns ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) energetically tracked a hot pace in his one-turn-mile debut at Gulfstream Jan. 14 as the 3-1 favorite. This son of Uncle Mo was “on hold” but not bothered by being covered up at the rail in tight quarters on the turn, then got boxed and blocked even worse at the top of the stretch before punching through with a professional late run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Next time out on Feb. 12, trainer Todd Pletcher spotted him in a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, and Kingsbarns conceded a long lead to an intemperate 37-1 shot who quickly backpedaled through the pack. Kingsbarns dispatched him with ease and fended off all comers to draw away by 7 3/4 easy lengths (85 Beyer).

This colt doesn't have a flashy way of going and his speed numbers aren't eye-popping. But he has a level-headed, adaptable approach and a measure of confidence that should aid his chances as the competition toughens and the distances increase. The Louisiana Derby is next.

11) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate's 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa looks slow based on his 77 Beyer and :7.05 final sixteenth, but those numbers don't reflect that the race was run under sudden downpour conditions even though the track remained rated “fast” for the Equibase chart.

This $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame broke well but Luis Saez opted not to engage the leaders through a :46.94 half-mile. Litigate had good far-turn punch, but did require aggressive handling through the lane to sustain his bid ahead of two longshot closers.

Next up is the Louisiana Derby.

12) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings Inc & Philip J Steinberg (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: Second in the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 20

Slip Mahoney was slow from the gate in the one-turn-mile GIII Gotham S., had to be ridden cautiously to steer clear of a loose horse, dropped far behind through a quick :45.53 half-mile, then unwound with a prolonged far-turn bid.

But this $150,000 KEESEP gray still had only one horse beaten at the top of the stretch in a field of 14. Fanned way out wide in the 11 path, he dug in under Trevor McCarthy, uncorking a furious late rally that earned second under the wire behind a 7 1/2-length, 23-1 upsetter Raise Cain (Violence).

Trainer Brad Cox said he “never expected him to be that far back” and that “hopefully he gets a little better trip and a little better position” when he goes next in the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 8.

The added furlong should suit this colt, with stout A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew influences anchoring the bottom of his pedigree. His dam, Got Lucky, was a six-time victress with all of her wins at a mile or longer, the most prominent being a nine-furlong score in the 2015 GI Juddmonte Spinster S. at Keeneland.

Owner Al Gold's stable, Gold Square Racing, now has two contenders with the Top 12, as New York-stabled Slip Mahoney joins the New Orleans-based Instant Coffee.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs

The first Saturday in May is the ultimate goal on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. But the first Saturday in March is often a make-or-break day on the national calendar, with key stakes in Florida, California and New York providing an uptick in intensity.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for Apr. 26

These rankings are in “likeliest winner” order, and they are different from the points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here. The GI Kentucky Derby can have a field of 20 with four also-eligibles.

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 114.

Right after the final nine-furlong preps were complete, I felt certain bettors would gravitate toward Zandon (Upstart) rather than Epicenter (Not This Time) as the Derby favorite. Now I'm not so sure. My rationale was that the wagering public tends to be all over visually impressive horses who win in dramatic fashion, especially if the effort is fresh in the public's mind (recency bias). Although that scenario describes this athletic $170,000 KEESEP colt's narrative, the price on the more seasoned Epicenter is likely to be skewed downward by the annual betting/hedging endeavor by furniture magnate Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who has pledged to plunk down between $3 and 4 million on this year's Derby favorite.

Last year in a similar promotion, McIngvale was responsible for 25% of the win pool on the (losing) Derby favorite, and it is plausible that his own series of bets are what will make the difference in establishing which of the even-matched colts goes off as the chalk. Writing for Horse Racing Nation, Travis Stone, the Churchill Downs announcer (who has experience as a respected morning-line oddsmaker), summed it up like this: “It's hard to imagine someone being a market mover in the biggest pools of the year, but [McIngvale] is. So given the Mack factor, I believe Epicenter must be lowered to 3-1 [favoritism]. I was tempted to go 5-2, the same odds that Essential Quality closed at last year, but the competitiveness of Epicenter's main rivals caused hesitation.” That's good news if you like Zandon–it presents the rare opportunity to back the most likely Derby winner at odds a touch above his true chances of winning.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter has only lost once within the past six months, and that January defeat in the GIII Lecomte S. foretold quite a bit about his even-keeled character and understatedly powerful makeup. He forced the issue on the front end, swatted back a wall of horses at the top of the lane, repulsed a prolonged bid from the favorite through the length of the Fair Grounds stretch, then got nailed the wire by a fresh 28-1 shot before quickly surging back in front several jumps after the finish.

In two subsequent Grade II starts over increasing distances, this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time has fine-tuned the flow of his races, showing he is confident controlling the tempo without necessarily needing the lead. His ability to be a focused, committed presence through fast splits while still having plenty left to fight off challengers late is something no other horse on this list has mastered over such a broad body of work.

But at what price are you willing to find out if Epicenter's consistency holds true in the 20-horse Derby? As discussed in Zandon's write-up above, the potential exists for the favorite's odds to be pari-mutuelly depressed. So the question of bettability could come down to whether you will accept 3-1 odds on a horse who more realistically figures to be a 5-1 proposition.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 112.

Your opinion on Mo Donegal ($250,000 KEESEP) in the Derby might come down to whether you think he's the type of horse who routinely “finds” trouble or if he's just consistently unlucky and always seems to be needing to extricate himself from disadvantageous positioning. The truth is probably a little bit of both. And to his credit, this Uncle Mo colt does have a knack for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be back in the irons for the Derby (after Joel Rosario opted to stick with Epicenter). Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing told Jennie Rees in a Kentucky HBPA video interview that that partnership will be a big plus in a crowded field.

“Obviously, you've got to be worried about traffic. I'm thrilled that we have Irad,” he said. “If anybody can find a couple of seams, which we'll need to be successful, I think Irad's the person. We've had a lot of 'freight-train' horses–Arklow for example–where you couldn't afford to let the horse get stopped. This horse is a little more athletic; a little more agile. We saw that in the [GII] Wood [Memorial S.], where he went in and he came out pretty effortlessly without losing any momentum. That's an important asset, too, I think, in the Derby.”

4) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

Smile Happy's stock has tailed off a bit, but I sense he's going emerge as a “wiseguy” horse as we get closer to Derby day. As a juvenile he was 2-for-2 with a pair of eye-catching far-turn moves to mow down the competition, and this 'TDN Rising Star' was rated No. 1 on this list back in early February. But when this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) waited too long when trying to rate off the pace behind Epicenter in the GII Risen Star S., and then got tired on the lead when Zandon ran him down in the deep stretch GI Blue Grass S., it took a little shine off his status.

The fact that Smile Happy hasn't won in five months doesn't seem to ruffle trainer Kenny McPeek, who has consistently underscored that he wants a Derby contender who will also be fresh for the GI Preakness S., too. Smile Happy closed at 8-1 odds in each of the first three Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, then at 6-1 in Pool 4 and 9-1 in Pool 5. His overall chances haven't been too badly blemished. But now it's likely he'll go off at 12-1 or better in the Derby itself, significantly higher than how bettors projected his chances through the winter and spring.

5) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 110.

This $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb could be the juiciest overlay in this year's Derby. While the handicapping world grapples with whether or not he'll adapt to dirt based on one poor showing off a three-month layoff at Gulfstream, I'll take my chances that Tiz the Bomb will, at the very least, outrun inflated odds based on his portfolio of eight races, proven ability to negotiate large fields, and versatility in running style. He's won stakes in fields numbering 10, 12 (twice) and 14 horses, and he's scored on the lead, stalking, and rating from well back. Trainer Kenny McPeek has said he wants Tiz the Bomb closer to the pace in the Derby in an effort to avoid traffic. I won't try to make the case that he's as dominant as some of the proven dirt contenders–that's not the case. But the price on this Grade II grass and Grade III Tapeta winner is likely to drift upward relatively unchecked by the betting public.

6) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

If you had the foresight to bet Not This Time in the Derby Sire Future Wager that closed way back on Thanksgiving weekend, you're now holding a 23-1 ticket that gets you both the likely starting fave, Epicenter, and the well-regarded Simplification. Both were just MSW winners at the time of that bet. Although he finished third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby, this colt ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) ran a losing race that resonates better than the efforts of the two rivals who beat him, chiefly because Simplification got embroiled in two separate speed skirmishes that he won at the expense of losing the overall battle. He has five 90+ Beyer performances, and the only two races that Simplification didn't attain that number were in his career debut and in a Nov. 13 sprint in which he bashed his head on the starting gate and required surgical staples to close the wound. Jose Ortiz will retain the mount on Simplification in the Derby, having made the commitment last week even though he starting status of Ortiz's other possible Derby mount, Early Voting, is still in limbo.

7) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

Although Messier has been trained by Tim Yakteen for the past month, the Derby foundation for this 'TDN Rising Star' was laid down by now-suspended trainer Bob Baffert. And there was something different about how Messier was aimed for the Apr. 9 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby that is worth considering in light of his slightly disappointing second-place effort.

Baffert has won a record nine Santa Anita Derbies. But every one of those winning horses made his last start in March, making Messier's attempt off an eight-week break an anomaly for a Baffert-prepared sophomore. Through the prism of that out-of-the-ordinary angle, you can make the case that this $470,000 FTKSEL colt actually ran pretty well considering he was likely not wound too tightly for that Apr. 9 prep. Yes, he still lost to a just-graduated maiden stablemate. But Messier vied with the favored pacemaker and hung in for most of the stretch run when challenged anew. As preps go, that effort is now becoming more likeable the farther away it gets in the rear-view mirror.

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting remains the highest-ranked contender whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. This $200,000 KEESEP colt projects to be a part of the Derby pace, and his Wood Memorial near-miss was notable for holding well against the more experienced Mo Donegal after setting a spirited tempo. He's 2-for-3 with only a neck loss to the No. 3 horse on this list, and his ascending Beyer pattern (76, 87, 96) allows for room to improve based on a pedigree that suggests 10 furlongs is within his grasp.

9) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

A number of Derby-aspiring horse owners have unrealistic expectations. Bill Simon, who bought this Race Day gray for a bargain $15,000 as a KEENOV weanling, isn't among them. “I know a lot of people say that it's been their dream,” to win the Derby, Simon told TDN's Katie Petrunyak last week. “It honestly wasn't a dream for us because we never imagined that we could do it.”

Barber Road nearly always outruns his odds despite routinely encountering trip trouble, or losing a shoe like he did when second in the GI Arkansas Derby.

“He could have won any one of those,” Simon said. “More importantly, he thinks he won every time because he gallops out ahead in every single race so he comes back all happy. Through all his works and races, he's never been tired… I don't know what's going to happen, but I can promise that at the end of the race he's going to be running as hard as he can and he'll be moving forward.”

10) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

This Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors in his mile MSW win, then ran a very credible second despite some greenness through the lane in the Florida Derby. But it's still a big ask for this colt to step up against far more seasoned competition over 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby, and a bet on Charge It pulling off the upset rides strictly on what you guess he might be capable of delivering, as opposed to anything concrete in his three-race past-performance block. Trainer Todd Pletcher has cited Charge It's good disposition, the fact that he's training well, and his impeccable breeding to cover a distance of ground as positives heading toward May 7.

11) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 100.

Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman broke the news over the weekend that Taiba will have only one published workout between his Runhappy Santa Anita Derby win and the Kentucky Derby, with “strong gallops” instead comprising the bulk of his training. It's yet another against-the-grain angle as this 'TDN Rising Star' attempts to defy convention by winning the first leg of the Triple Crown off of two blistering triple-digit Beyer wins in a career arc that dates only to Mar. 5.

Taiba benefitted from his stablemate Messier doing the dirty work to crack the pacemaker in the Santa Anita Derby, but this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) was very much into the bridle and relentless in his pursuit of that more seasoned rival the entire length of the stretch. Too much hype and not enough experience? Probably. But the wild-card nature of Taiba's meteoric rise will be one of the most compelling story lines in this year's Derby.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

This Race Day gray ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has only lost once from four starts. He enjoyed clear sailing in his two graded stakes scores over his home court at Gulfstream, racking up 97 (GIII Holy Bull S.) and 96 Beyers (Florida Derby). He was also third in the most meaningful juvenile prep race from last autumn (GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.). A legit concern is the tepid final furlong from the Florida Derby. The :14.09 clocking was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps in 2021-22, and White Abarrio won't be afforded a similarly lethargic late-race stretch run in the Kentucky Derby.

13) Zozos (Munnings): Zozos hasn't gotten out much in the afternoons (just three races). But he keeps good company. The runner-up and third-place horse from his Jan. 23 MSW score both won their next starts. His Feb. 11 allowance victory yielded a next-out winner among the also-rans. And the stakes debut of this 'TDN Rising Star' in the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby equated to a decent second-place showing behind Epicenter. But his relative inexperience, six weeks between starts, and sprint-slanted pedigree might be too much for Zozos to overcome at 10 furlongs.

Zozos | Coady Photo

14) Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway): Three weeks after an inexplicably poor last-place showing in the Florida Derby in which this former No. 1-ranked colt faltered badly on the front end, trainer Brian Lynch on Monday declared Classic Causeway back in the Derby, citing a desire to “put a line through that race” and “roll the dice.” This homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper had previously wired both the GIII Davis S. and the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, but earned soft Beyers in each (88 for the Davis, and his original 84 for the Tampa Derby has since been readjusted to an 86). “I looked for every excuse not to run him in there after he threw craps at the Gulfstream race,” Lynch told Horse Racing Nation. “I've got two old boys between them with 160 years of living. Their dream has been to run in the Kentucky Derby. I argued and tried to make a case for not running. After watching him work the other day and seeing how he had come out of it, I guess the horse deserves a chance to run.”

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): Christophe Lemaire has been dominant riding in Japan since switching his tack there full-time five years ago, and he'll partner with the Japan-based GII UAE Derby victor in Louisville for the first time. He figures to seek a stalking trip, and Crown Pride has more experience than most Stateside horses in negotiating sizable fields. Japan-based horses have gone 0-for-3 in the Derby; winners of the UAE Derby are 0-for-11.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): Can you name the only horse ever to parlay wins in the GIII Lexington S. and Kentucky Derby? That would be Charismatic. He was 31-1 when he won the 1999 Derby, and this $430,000 KEESEP colt will likely go off higher than that when he attempts the same feat this year. But long Derby odds are nothing new for owner Peachtree Stable, whose colors were carried by Invisible Ink to a 55-1 second in the 2001 Derby. Tawny Port is a little light speed figures-wise, having earned a 90 Beyer only once from three Tapeta tries and a pair of dirt races that clocked in at 86 and 89.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): This high-energy $400,000 FTKSEL colt won his qualifying points against a subpar group in the Arkansas Derby by barreling through the pack and swerving through the lane. Cyberknife's overall body of work and career-best 92 Beyer don't leap off the past-performance page screaming, “Bet me!” But he's improving at the right time, and maturity might add some swagger and polish to his reputation as a hard-to-handle horse.

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): This gelding is parked pretty far down the likely to win list. But the reality is Un Ojo should be able to drop back, save ground, and start picking off stragglers who are spent by the far turn. Exactly how many horses this one-eyed New York-bred ends up passing is what's up for debate. Un Ojo would need to run the race of his life while a slew of better credentialed contenders all fail to fire in order to end up draped in a blanket of roses. That's not very plausible based on his past performances–but it's exactly how perceived no-hopers Mine That Bird and Giacomo orchestrated 50-1 upsets in 2009 and 2005.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): He's fast, but can he last? Late Triple Crown supplement and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) led for as long as he could in the G2 UAE Derby. But this six-time sprinter will have to deal with markedly ramped-up early pressure at Churchill with multiple waves of closers coming from behind. Mickael Barzalona will again be aboard in Louisville.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): Pie-in-the-sky longshots have always been a part of Derby lore. In this qualifying-points era, a colt like Happy Jack gets in on the basis of a distant third in a short-field Grade I stakes. An RNA at KEENOV, this colt won sprinting at first asking at 24-1 odds while racing on Lasix and has been beaten an aggregate 49 1/2 lengths in three subsequent non-Lasix stakes routes.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for Apr. 26 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Apr. 5

Seven horses among the current Top 12 will be in action Saturday in the last nine-furlong preps of the season. This past weekend's trio of stakes at Gulfstream, Oaklawn and Turfway dislodged former No. 1 contender Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), but no winners from those races vaulted into the upper echelon. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

1) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy coasts into the second Saturday of April with a 2-for-3 record that includes assertive juvenile form and one forgivable loss at three. This confidently powerful son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) got pocketed, moved too late, then ran up on heels under a full head of steam while second in the GII Risen Star S. behind the No. 2-ranked Epicenter (Not This Time). But it only took two jumps after the wire for Smile Happy to gallop out abreast of that geared-down rival, and the 94 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for the runner-up effort added to his upward-trending three-race arc. On Saturday at Keeneland, Smile Happy will return to the scene of his career unveiling, an emphatic 5 1/2-length victory in which he accelerated in hand three-eighths out to win with panache over a short-stretch, 1 1/16 miles configuration.

Smile Happy already showed no signs of wilting at nine furlongs in New Orleans. But 10 furlongs in the Derby? Smile Happy's sire was the 2015 champion sprinter. But his dam-sire, Pleasant Tap, was third in the 1990 Derby and won champion older horse honors in '92, and Derby winners like Super Saver and Pleasant Colony aren't too far back on each side of Smile Happy's pedigree.

Epicenter brings nearly impeccable credentials to the Derby: He breaks like a pro, attains speed-centric positioning, withstands up-tempo paces, fights when challenged, finishes strongly, is capable of triple-digit Beyers, has won at 1 3/16 miles, has won at Churchill, and has only lost once (barely) in the past six months. Yet he's facing several historical hurdles.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is 0-for-23 in the Derby, the longest active drought on record. Epicenter's most recent prep, the GII Louisiana Derby, which dates to 1894, has only yielded two horses who crossed the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby (in 1924 and 1996). And only two horses since 1929 have won the first leg of the Triple Crown off a six-week break like Epicenter will be trying to do (Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Needles in 1956 did it; Authentic's 49-day layoff in 2020 occurred when the Derby got rescheduled to September). If Epicenter winds up being the third choice or higher in the Derby, he could represent betting value.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 0.

As he primes for his final prep in Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby, Messier–looking ahead one race–will be attempting to be the first Canadian-bred since Sunny's Halo in 1983 to win the Kentucky Derby. The only other Canadian-bred to win the Derby? The great Northern Dancer in 1964. Given the connection between his home country and hockey star namesake (Mark Messier), the Toronto Sun recently profiled this 'TDN Rising Star' and $470,000 FTKSEL bay by Empire Maker. “He's big, robust, long-striding, athletic, well-balanced and most importantly, mentally a very focused colt,” said Tom Ryan of SF Racing, part of Messier's multi-partner ownership. “He knows his job and he enjoys his job.” Ryan further told the Sun that the recent training transition from Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen has gone “incredibly well” under the “unfortunate” circumstances related to Baffert's suspension. “Messier, himself, he doesn't know. He's settled into his new surroundings very well. He's being cared for at the same elite level with Tim as he was with Bob. The foundation has already been laid and now it's just a matter of hoping we can maintain him and he continues on that upwards trajectory and he can be competitive at the elite level.”

4) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.

Mo Donegal hasn't been to work in the afternoon in two months, but his stock has ticked upward based on the subsequent graded stakes wins racked up by the winner, runner-up, and seventh-place finisher out of the GIII Holy Bull S. This $250,000 KEESEP Uncle Mo bay ran a trip-troubled third as the beaten fave in that Feb. 5 stakes, and he'll be stretching back out to his most recent winning distance and surface when he goes as the likely chalk in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct.

Although the GII Remsen S. itself has fallen off the map as a producer of Derby winners (only three horses won both stakes in the last 58 years–Thunder Gulch, Go For Gin and Pleasant Colony)–it was still pretty impressive back in early December to see Mo Donegal bump and grind through a hard-fought final furlong in :12.33 to prevail by a nose over the well-regarded Zandon (Upstart).

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Provided he makes the qualifying cut, Zandon will go into the Derby with three consecutive nine-furlong preps, which is something you don't generally see these days–especially when the colt in question will only have four lifetime starts.

Considering this $170,000 KEESEP colt has only a MSW sprint win to his credit, he's been well supported by Derby prognosticators all winter long, chiefly on the premise that he's persevered well through two rough/unlucky trips in the GII Remsen S. and the GII Risen Star S.

On Saturday, Zandon will partner with Flavien Prat for the first time, and it's also a little out of the ordinary to see such a highly ranked horse be ridden by four different jockeys in as many starts. But here's another stat to chew on in case you don't think this lightly raced Chad Brown trainee belongs with the top of the crop: The only horses who have ever finished in front of Zandon are ranked at Nos. 1, 2 and 4 on this list.

Although he finished third in the GI Florida Derby, Simplification delivered the performance that rates above the two rivals who beat him. He applied direct pressure to front-running Classic Causeway, and even though he cracked that rival with little resistance 4 1/2 furlongs out, the move by jockey Jose Ortiz appeared premature when Pappacap (Gun Runner) immediately launched a go-for-broke bid that hooked both of them into a far-turn slugfest through the fastest quarter-mile segment (:23.44) of the race. When confronted anew by White Abarrio (Race Day) at the head of the lane, Simplification made the eventual winner work until the eighth pole to wrest command, and this colt hung in as well as he could without being pumped dry before Kentucky Derby day. He's sixth on the points list for Louisville, where his tactical speed and résumé of five 90-plus Beyers will rate him as a legit threat in the 15-1 range.

7) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

He's smaller in stature and his auction history ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) is more modest than most of his peers, but this athletic Race Day gray has punched above his weight through a five-race career. Yes, you can argue that White Abarrio's two graded stakes scores came over his home court at Gulfstream when he encountered clear sailing while favorites either ran into trip trouble (the Holy Bull S.) or embroiled themselves in a tactical meltdown (the Florida Derby). But at some point, even detractors have to acknowledge the admirable fact that White Abarrio keeps finding ways to win. It's also to his credit that his only loss was a respectable third in the most meaningful juvenile prep race from last autumn (the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.). White Abarrio gave up real estate on both turns Saturday, yet he has a nimble enough way of going to think that he could have an advantage fighting for position in a crowded 20-horse race like the Derby.

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 5.

We won't see the entries until Wednesday, but the Blue Grass S. could shake out with 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel as the controlling speed. That's provided this physically imposing son of More Than Ready reverts to seeking the lead like he did in his first two victories against MSW and allowance company. In the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., this $350,000 KEESEP colt rated from off the pace while four and then five wide on the turns, but his middle move was decent enough considering the lost ground (229 feet more than the winner) and it being his first try against graded stakes company. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Blue Grass on three previous occasions (Carpe Diem 2015, Monba '08 and Bandini '05).

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 50.

What Saturday's Santa Anita Derby will lack in depth should be more than offset by the headline match-up of Forbidden Kingdom vs. Messier. The race promises to be a classic clash of true California speed horses, although this front-running son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL) will probably be asked to tone down his blitzing early pace presence while Messier might be in the process of honing his quickness out of the gate. Messier won their only previous head-to-head (the GIII Bob Hope S. back in November), but Forbidden Kingdom has emerged as a stronger, more intimidating colt at age three with 94- and 98-Beyer wirings in a pair of Grade II stakes.

10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.

Should Early Voting win Saturday's Wood Memorial, he'd go into the Derby with a 3-for-3 lifetime record, all at Aqueduct. An all-New York Derby campaign is a little offbeat these days, but this $200,000 KEESEP buy has been cautiously handled as a late bloomer who has already wired a nine-furlong stakes. The Wood pace pressure should be torqued up a notch or two, but Early Voting's style so far has been based on sustained intensity, and his MSW win in a one-turn mile showed he can deal with multiple threats on the front end while still having enough power left in reserve to swat away stern stretch bids.

11) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Charge It uncorked the type of performance in the Florida Derby that whets the appetite to see what he will do over longer distances with a little more seasoning. The open question is whether his three-race foundation is enough to launch him into contention as a ready-for-prime-time Derby horse.

This Whisper Hill Farm homebred was briefly favored prior to the closing of odds on Saturday, which is saying a lot considering the son of Tapit was making his first two-turn attempt against Grade I company. He definitely got a good schooling out of the experience–bumped out of the gate, learned how to rate while covered up under mild restraint, and ran well in spots through the lane while excusably green. But he really had to be roused by jockey Luis Saez from the far turn all the way to the wire, and he ran up on White Abarrio's heels twice in the final quarter mile while also losing momentum from repeatedly veering in and out. There were some noticeable spurts of interest through the stretch. But when you consider that four other horses had already taken turns on the lead after three consecutive sub-24-second quarter splits and a fourth quarter that devolved to :25.87, Charge It couldn't seal the deal when handed a soft :14.09 final eighth.

12) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

I'm going to lob a bomb onto the caboose of this week's Top 12 by making a case for hard-charging Barber Road, described by his trainer, John Ortiz, as a “tough little horse.”

This unsung gray by Race Day ($15,000 KEENOV) nearly always outruns his odds despite traffic woes, and his attempted takedown of the shifting and drifting leader in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby got derailed by Barber Road's running up onto the back end of a tiring pacemaker before refocusing with grit to snatch second from the favorite–all while losing a shoe amid the chaos.

Barber Road has eight races under his belt, has run well at Churchill (a 6 1/4-length win and a second, beaten half a length), and has gained ground and position in the stretch of every race at age three. True, he hasn't won a race since Nov. 10, and then against far lesser company. But longer distances are within the scope of his pedigree, which is anchored on the bottom by damsire Southern Image, who in 2004 at age four won two Grade I routes at Triple Crown distances (the Santa Anita H. and the Pimlico Special H.) before losing by a nose in the nine-furlong GI Stephen Foster H.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Blackadder (Quality Road): An undesirable draw of post 12 scratched this $620,000 KEESEP colt out of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway and into Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway): Homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper has the points to get into the Derby, but not the positive momentum after his inexplicable caving to last while on the lead in the Florida Derby. Starting status for Louisville TBD.

Cyberknife (Gun Runner): High-energy colt ($400,000 FTKSEL) dislodged jockey in post parade and was four wide through first turn before getting first (and only) run on a tiring pacemaker on the far turn of the Arkansas Derby. One bid behind him fizzled, another got blocked. Veering out late while clear in 92-Beyer score over soft field.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEESEP colt gave up four paths of ground on both turns in the slowly run Rebel S., yet led from the quarter pole until 50 yards before the wire. Because Lukas did not want to run Ethereal Road in the same race as the filly Secret Oath (Arrogate), who was third as the fave in the Arkansas Derby, this colt must travel to a much tougher spot in the Blue Grass S.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) owns 20 qualifying points (ranked 27th) based on second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.

Morello (Classic Empire): Undefeated, 96-Beyer GIII Gotham S. victor ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) gets two turns for the first time in Wood Memorial. Will he hook up on the front end with Early Voting?

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) and winner of two subsequent Turfway stakes on Tapeta surface was declared a “go” for the Derby by trainer Kenny McPeek on Monday.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Apr. 5 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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