Tag: TDN Derby Top 20

TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks

A new kingpin graces the No. 1 slot after a wild, final weekend of 100-point preps. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths, with several horses included here who are currently below the cut.

 

1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed GI Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense “momentum” horse heading to Louisville. In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday, this son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a Derby contender.

Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-miles Derby qualifying stakes in 2022-23 (1:41.65 in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 GII San Felipe S.). His winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby is also quickest of all the nine-furlong preps.

Unhurried at the break, jockey Ramon Vazquez secured an inside run behind a blazing :22.30 opening quarter in the Santa Anita Derby. He chipped away at the margin down the backstretch, and for the third graded stakes in a row, Practical Move rode the rail to menace the pacemaker. Seizing the lead while still in hand before the quarter pole, the even-money Practical Move then fended off a determined Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) to win by a nose while keeping a wide-and-driving Skinner comfortably at bay a half-length back in third.

Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven “Wow!” gear late in the lane. But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.

 

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' . O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) goes into the Derby as the East Coast kingpin and reigning divisional champ. But while Practical Move ended his prep season with an exclamation point, Forte's final prep resonated more like a question mark, because at 1-5 odds he was expected to deliver a shellacking to s soft-on-paper GI Florida Derby field.

Yes, this son of Violence did win with his ears pricked after giving himself too much work to do. And his loping, 4 ½-furlong move did not come at the expense of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., having to drill this colt in order to power past the pesky Mage (Good Magic). Five-sixteenths out, Forte looked beaten. But once he got rolling, Forte uncoiled on cue, giving off a “Don't worry, I've got this!” vibe to win by a measured length.

The 20-horse Derby will be different. It was a tactical revelation to hear Ortiz say post-race that “We went to the first turn and those horses cleared me and I said, 'Oh my God.' I thought he could clear them and he didn't do it.”

Forte just might have the most devastating late-race kick in the Derby. But if he can't attain good early positioning, he won't have a stable launching pad to set up his proven far-turn run.

 

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Three horses were bobbing heads at the wire of the GII Wood Memorial. Although this homebred for Gary and Mary West ended up second, he ran the best race in terms of boosting his chances in the Derby.

This Candy Ride (Arg) colt went off as the 17-10 favorite, and although he didn't challenge for the lead from post 12, he was in the hunt five wide on the clubhouse bend before taking up a stalking spot while fifth, about five lengths off a moderate first two quarters in :24.88 and :24.12.

The cadence quickened through a :23.88 third quarter, and Hit Show was on the prowl three deep through the turn. He was bottled up off the bend, had to be switched off the heels in upper stretch, then both gave and took some light slam-dancing while sparring in the middle of a three-way go through the final furlong.

The hedge here is that this May 9 foal can build off that effort, especially when you consider Hit Show has already won at nine furlongs (in the GIII Withers. S.). In addition, his Beyers show a nice, ascending arc of 60-71-82-91-93 through five career tries.

 

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), a Justify colt who will not hit his third birthdate until five days after the Derby, picked a stellar time to run his breakthrough “coming out” race when second, beaten a nose, in the GI Blue Grass S.

A half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, Verifying broke forwardly but conceded the lead to an 86-1 sacrificial pacemaker. Tyler Gaffalione let that long shot roll onto the back straight while sitting second with his 2.3-1 mount, then tightened that open-length gap 5 ½ furlongs out.

Cognizant of 'TDN Rising Star' and 1.2-1 favorite Tapit Trice (Tapit) making a bold move to his outside, Verifying took control at the five-sixteenths pole. Gaffalione braced for the quarter-pole challenge of Tapit Trice by deftly floating that favorite out to the five path.

The two then threw down in a length-of-stretch slugfest that included some inconsequential bumping and brushing, with Verifying twice clawing back the lead before Tapit Trice snatched it away by a neck at the wire. The two co-earned 99 Beyers.

Verifying has won twice, but never at the stakes level. He had enough speed to break his maiden over six furlongs at the Spa last summer, and also took down a key-race allowance going a mile at Oaklawn in January, out of which the second- and  third-place horses came back to win their next starts as favorites.

 

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

Tapit Trice would not be denied in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. | Coady Photography

There's a good chance 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is evolving into a powerhouse with a knack for extricating himself from tight predicaments and finding a way to win at all costs.

But his slow-to-go nature marks this son of Tapit as a “heart attack” type of horse who scares the daylights out of his backers by constantly having to be pumped on for run by rider Luis Saez before he accomplishes his task by only as much as it takes to win narrowly.

That was the way Tapit Trice scored in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby (a crew that will not yield any other Kentucky Derby qualifiers), and it was a similar story in Saturday's tougher Blue Grass S.

After hustling this burly gray from the one post, Saez had to throttle back before the field passed the mile marker. The colt settled to seventh entering the backstretch, got guided outside, and was already on the march six furlongs from the wire.

Tapit Trice was jointly third by the half-mile pole, and as the lead changed in front of him, he went relentlessly after Verifying off the turn. They raced in lockstep while exchanging love taps and the lead, but Tapit Trice had more at the finish.

Despite the victory, the overall takeaway is that Tapit Trice's loop-the-group tactics simply don't align with the profiles of recent Derby winners. Eight of the last nine Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead. Thus, despite winning his last two stakes in respectable, off-the-tailgate fashion, Tapit Trice takes a haircut in the rankings, dropping from third to fifth.

 

6) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) led at every call through moderate fractions to win the GII Louisiana Derby (95 Beyer) by 3 ½ lengths.

Although light on experience race-wise, Kingsbarns is developing a businesslike, no-drama demeanor. Ranked by foaling date (Jan. 17), he's also the oldest of the Top 20 competitors.

This colt doesn't necessarily need the lead. But this Todd Pletcher trainee is in his comfort zone either setting the pace or forcing the issue from just behind the leaders.

He's also already checked the “overcomes adversity” box. As the 3-1 favorite in his one-turn-mile Gulfstream debut, Kingsbarns was unbothered by being smothered at the rail in tight quarters on the turn. He later got blocked badly at the head of the lane before coming up with a decisive, punch-through run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Race number two didn't require as much effort, but it was useful. In a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, Kingsbarns let a 37-1 shot open up a long lead, then reeled him in with ease to finish 7 ¾ lengths ahead of the pack (85 Beyer).

 

7) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate hasn't been to the winner's circle since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S. score, and his Beyers are drifting in the wrong direction at age three (95-90-86). But I wouldn't discount him as a rebounding, front-end factor in the Derby.

This large-framed, long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer.

Reincarnate has twice flown to Oaklawn since Feb. 25 rom his Santa Anita training base, running third in both the GII Rebel S. (with a troubled trip) and the GI Arkansas Derby (ideal stalking setup but failed to fire).

At somewhere in the 25-1 range, I'd have a hard time excluding Reincarnate from Derby exotics, although his lack of a positive-momentum final prep precludes keying on him to win.

 

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm is the highest-ranked Top 20 contender who is outside looking in, points-wise. He's currently parked at No. 26 on the qualifying list with 40 points and needs help from defectors.

This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred rates so highly because it's unlikely we've seen his best effort at age three. Whether his prime-time bust-out comes 3 ½ weeks from now in the Derby or 3 ½ months from now as a later developer is the question.

Remember, his sire, Gun Runner, ran third as the 2016 Derby, finished on the board in a series of graded stakes into the summer and fall, but didn't burst onto the scene until after the Breeders' Cup, when he won the GI Clark H. (and seven of his eight final races against top-class competition).

Disarm has been at a tactical disadvantage trying to pull back lone-speed pacemakers twice in 2023, first in an allowance at Oaklawn Feb. 19, and again, with inside trip trouble, in the Louisiana Derby.

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Angel of Empire dominated the GI Arkansas Derby | Coady Photography

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) sails into the Derby off back-to-back, come-from-behind wins at nine furlongs in the GII Risen Star S. (89 Beyer) and Arkansas Derby (94 Beyer). This two-time sales entrant ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) will seek to become the third Pennsylvania-bred to win the Derby, after Lil E. Tee (1992) and Smarty Jones (2004).

“I think he's capable of winning [the Derby],” trainer Brad Cox said on the Apr. 6 TDN Writers' Room podcast. “We have to get better and we may have to have Forte stub his toe in order to beat him. But 20-horse field, it's a demanding, challenging race, bottom line. If you make the field that's why you go, so many things can happen.”

 

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

If you discount his rough-trip fifth debuting at five furlongs way back on June 23 and his seventh behind Forte in the key-race GI Breeders' Futurity S.(when Two Phil's got bounced around at the break), this is a colt with four wins (two at Grade III) and a second and third in two other graded stakes.

His 101-Beyer score in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks was a sizable 15-point jump off his previous effort in the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. That's a stout number, but it's so far removed from his normal range that it leads to speculation about whether triple digits on the Beyer scale are sustainable for Two Phil's.

Versatility and a “do your job” attitude are the twin strengths of Two Phil's. He's won sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop and now Tapeta, and you have to admire how he's been in it to win it at least until the upper stretch every time he's raced.

 

11) MANDARIN HERO (JPN) (c, Shanghai Bobby–Namura Nadeshiko {Jpn}, by Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}) O-Hiroaki Arai; B-Hirano Bokujo (Jpn); T-Terunobu Fujita. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-4-2-0, $386,854. Last start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), victorious in four of five starts in Japan (only loss by a neck), popped with an impressive 8-1 runner-up try in the Santa Anita Derby. But the 40 qualifying points he garnered (24th) are still shy of a certain Derby berth.

His sharp United States debut would have been good enough to win the Santa Anita Derby in most years. Mandarin Hero broke fifth, tucked into the two path around the first turn, then had to wait for room into the far turn. Committed to inside passage by jockey Kazushi Kimura, he patiently waited some more, then dove through at the fence off the turn.

In upper stretch Mandarin Hero had his momentum briefly stalled as Kimura repositioned him off the favorite's heels. But Mandarin Hero still maintained his focus on Practical Move even while a fresh rival, Skinner (Curlin), was bearing down outside. This colt was getting to the winner; they were separated by a nose and co-earned 100 Beyers.

 

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

The eye-catching, far-turn move by Mage ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) was slightly premature in the Florida Derby. But it catapulted him to the lead, and he showed he knew what to do to defend his position once he hit the front, sharply repulsing a bid from the more experienced Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

All the while Forte was taking dead aim. Even though this son of Good Magic had little left to stave off the 1-5 fave, Mage's effort still rates as impressive considering his lack of seasoning (just three races) and the fact that that no horse has finished that close to the champ in three other races over the last six months.

If a Forte-vs.-Mage rivalry continues to percolate, you can trace it back to a grudge match their dams started. Mage is out of the Bill Mott-trained Puca, who won her only stakes race in a $75,000 turfer at Suffolk Downs in 2017. She scored by 1 ¾ lengths over the Michael Matz-trained Queen Caroline, who would go on to foal Forte.

 

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate..

13) Skinner (Curlin)
Skinner ($40,000 KEESEP; $510,000 OBSAPR) stamped himself as an outside Louisville threat who figures to be flying under the radar, odds-wise. In the Santa Anita Derby, this noticeably maturing son of Curlin broke well but was asked to settle second from last by Victor Espinoza. Skinner started to pick off midpack targets with a purposeful move three-eighths out, then swung four wide for the drive. He briefly brushed with a tiring 54-1 shot, dug in, and stayed on decently. Skinner ended up beaten half a length by Practical Move and Mandarin Hero, earning a 99 Beyer that leaves room for improvement. Trainer John Shirreffs orchestrated Giacomo's 50-1 Kentucky Derby win in 2005 off a fourth-place try in the Santa Anita Derby. At No. 21 on the qualifying list, Skinner needs one defection to make the cut.

 

14) Lord Miles (Curlin)
Lord Miles outran his 59-1 odds in a shocker of a score in the Wood Memorial. Is he a one-race wonder, or just starting to blossom? He broke forwardly, pressed the pacemaker, then backed off to fourth on the back straight. It looked for a few strides like he was starting to lose touch into the far bend, but Paco Lopez got him going again, and by the head of the lane this Vesgo Racing Stable homebred was hunkered down and not at all deterred by the rambunctious jostling of a furious three-way stretch battle. He won the bob at the finish by a nose, and the win represented a 14-point Beyer jump from 79 to 93. Realistically, this year's Derby projects to require a triple-digit Beyer to win, meaning Lord Miles must deliver another lifetime best against the toughest competition and over the longest distance of his career.

 

15) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)
Derma Sotogake wired the G2 UAE Derby. But that doesn't necessarily mean this ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling will be committed to seeking the lead in the Derby. “We didn't exactly plan to go straight to the lead but he broke well,” said trainer Hidetaka Otonashi. Added jockey Christophe Lemaire, “He can break a little slowly [but he] travelled nicely on the lead and he relaxed for me down the backstretch. He was still moving smoothly for me as we came into the home stretch and once I pressed the button he was very impressive and I could enjoy the finish on him.” The first four horses across the finish barely changed positions for the bulk of that race, although Derma Sotogake cracked them all while still in hand before widening his margin under light encouragement.

 

16) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})
This $25,000 KEESEP colt whose dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta is listed as “possible” by Keeneland for the GIII Lexington S. on Saturday. Confidence Game does not need qualifying points to attain a Derby berth, so the 1 1/16-miles prep would serve as a true tune-up effort. Otherwise he'd be heading to Louisville off a 10-week gap since his 94-Beyer win in the Rebel S., a wide-and-driving score that was aided by a pace meltdown.

 

17) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)
This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) safely qualifies with 60 points  and is already stabled at Churchill, but his Derby status hasn't been solidified. He was a punchless fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, after which trainer Bill Mott said Rocket Can “gives you the feeling there's a little more there, but he's just not quite giving it all to you yet.” This colt proved late at age two and early into his sophomore season that he can capably stalk to stay within striking distance of leaders, and he doesn't shy from stretch fights. After winning the GIII Holy Bull S. back on Feb. 4, Rocket Can was a best-of-the-rest second behind divisional champ Forte. But he still hasn't made the convincing leap in Beyers, regressing from a 91 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. to an 86 at Oaklawn.

 

18) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)
This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) has a second, two fourths, and a fifth in graded stakes this year, and his 54 qualifying points are enough for a Derby berth. But trainer Ken McPeek was undecided on his starting status as of Sunday, the day after Sun Thunder ran 6 ½ lengths off the winner in the Blue Grass S. Sun Thunder still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but his Dec. 31 Oaklawn score was a capable effort despite minor trip trouble. His company lines aren't soft either; he caught some peaking horses earlier in the winter and was up against the grain of a speed-rewarding track on Louisiana Derby day.

 

19) Jace's Road (Quality Road)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road barely makes the cut as one of three horses currently tied with 45 qualifying points. He enjoys a $25,850 advantage in non-restricted stakes earnings, which is the tiebreaker. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, he faded to third in the late stages of the Louisiana Derby after pressing (but never truly threatening) all-the-way winner Kingsbarns. He took moderate pressure without any quit when wiring the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, but has been winless in two starts since.

 

20) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) accepted an invitation to Churchill for earning 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series when he won the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. At age three, this ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling was fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. He then improved to third in the UAE Derby, but he was still beaten 10 lengths by winner Derma Sotogake after stalking that pacemaker until the home straight. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is best known stateside for his two winners in the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar: Marche Lorraine (Jpn) at 49-1 in the GI Distaff and Loves Only You (Jpn) at 4-1 in the GI Filly and Mare Turf.

 

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The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19

With all the points-earning preps completed, the GI Kentucky Derby picture moves into “microscope mode” as we approach the two-week mark. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7. KY Derby Points: 114.

Zandon won sprinting at first asking while never more than two lengths off a rapid tempo. Stretched to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., he stalked the pace and was in it to win it right down to the final jump. Then he started rallying from farther back. This $170,000 KEESEP colt broke in the air, got relegated to last, then accelerated widest on the far turn when third in the GII Risen Star S. His GI Blue Grass S. score was accomplished via meticulous last-to-first handling by Flavien Prat. So which running style will Zandon deploy on Derby day? Handicappers considering backing (or betting against) him will want to know, especially in light of the fact that the last eight Derbies have been won by horses either on the lead or not far from it. It's easy to fall in love with closers because of the dramatic nature of their runs. But if you marveled at Prat's deft outside-inside-outside maneuvering through the far turn and upper stretch of the Blue Grass, you can also envision how that same strategy might result in getting boxed or blocked in the heavy traffic of a 20-horse field. That's why speed is so effective in the Derby. The very nature of out-front positioning affords those horses the advantage of leaving chaos behind-where deep closers are more likely to encounter it.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter will have a tactical edge over Zandon on Derby day because he's a more proven commodity who has shown over a larger sample of races that he can consistently attain optimal positioning. This $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time doesn't need to lead the cavalry charge into the first turn. But he does figure to be forcing the issue, and the fact that he's been the leader at the eighth pole in every one of his races (except his maiden sprint debut) suggests he's highly likely to be 1-2-3 turning for home. But you have to wonder if history will be Epicenter's friend as he tries to gut out that final quarter mile. A six-week break between a final prep and the Derby has only yielded two winners on the first Saturday in May since 1929, and only two horses since the 1894 inception of the GII Louisiana Derby have also crossed the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen, despite his many accomplishments, is 0-for-23 in the Derby. But that unappealing stat is largely based on his having started so many “just taking a shot” horses over the past two decades who weren't true contenders. Outside of Gun Runner (third in 2016) and Curlin (third in 2007), there are no A-list luminaries among Asmussen's mostly forgettable list of Derby also-rans.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY).
T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start:
1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

If Zandon's strong suit is athleticism fused with fighting spirit, and Epicenter's is rock-solid consistency, Mo Donegal rates an edge in terms of late-race torque that is both visually impressive and backed by strong final-eighth times in nine-furlong races. His identical, ground-gaining :12.33 final furlongs in both the GII Remsen S. and the GII Wood Memorial S. are the quickest among all 2021-22 Derby preps at that distance. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has never lost ground in the stretch runs of his five career races, and in each of his three wins he had to wrest control from leaders who punched back with purpose. But from a historical perspective, it's been a long time since the path to Louisville ran through New York. Only three horses in the last 58 years-Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin and Pleasant Colony-have parlayed Remsen and Derby wins. It's also been 22 years since the Wood winner went on to capture the Derby (Fusaichi Pegasus). Yet if Mo Donegal were to win the Derby, he'd match Pleasant Colony's rare 1980-81 triple of winning the Remsen, Wood and the Derby.

4) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

The road to the Derby is annually littered with horses who appear dominant in Florida's shorter winter preps yet can't carry their winning to 10 furlongs in the spring. Can Simplification jump that gap? The No. 4 spot in this week's rankings is where “raw ability” gives way to “the promise of possibility.” This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) was a starter in all four of Gulfstream's sophomore preps for the Derby-wiring the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S.; botching the break but closing well to get second in the GIII Holy Bull S., then winning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. with a prolonged bid from three-eighths out. His beaten-fave third in the GI Florida Derby has a legit excuse attached to it, as Simplification sparred with a sacrificial pacemaker, then got immediately hooked into a second duel when jockey Jose Ortiz decided to fully unleash him with 4 1/2 furlongs left in the race. A Derby scenario in which Simplification gets asked for his best run a little later might be better suited to his still-evolving stalking style.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY).
T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start:
2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting is the highest-ranked horse on this list whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. Trainer Chad Brown his cited Early Voting's light experience (just three races) and a desire to see where this $200,000 KEESEP frontrunner fits in the Derby's projected pace as several reasons for waiting to make a decision. Early Voting set a spirited tempo despite being relatively unpressured in the early stages of the Wood Memorial, and Jose Ortiz wisely chose not to overextend this colt in a late-race stretch skirmish when second against the more experienced Mo Donegal. If Early Voting presses on to the Derby, Ortiz will face a commitment choice, as he also has been riding No. 4-ranked Simplification.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

It's tough to knock Smile Happy's two sophomore starts. But it's also difficult say with confidence this 'TDN Rising Star' has demonstrated significant progression off his 2-for-2 juvenile campaign. That juxtaposition of undefeated form at age two and a winless season so far at age three is likely to get you about 12-1 on Derby day if you're willing to bet trainer Kenny McPeek has, in fact, precisely honed this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) to peak over 10 furlongs. Smile Happy was a hard-charging second in the GII Risen Star S. after jockey Corey Lanerie waited too long to uncoil on the far turn, then split horses in upper stretch and ran up on the heels of a tiring rival. In the Blue Grass S., Lanerie's move was timed much better. But after Smile Happy snatched the lead from the pacemaker at Keeneland's quarter pole, Zandon blew by him at the furlong marker. A clean trip in the Derby puts a tighter Smile Happy in the hunt for getting first run at the pacemakers on the far turn.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Tiz the Bomb has eight races of experience, with seven starts at a mile or longer. He's won over dirt, over both “good” and “firm” turf, over the undulating Kentucky Downs lawn, and over Turfway's Tapeta. His past performances show the most experience in large fields-he won a 14-horse Grade II stakes at age two, and has three other times finished first or second in races with 12 and 13 starters. Yet despite this broad base of experience, this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb figures to be “on sale” in the Derby mutuels simply because he ran one poor, kickback-eating dirt race off a three-month layoff (the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., from which the first three finishers all returned to win graded stakes). Based on that one aberrational performance, bettors are likely to deduce that Tiz the Bomb will be averse to the dirt at Churchill. And he just might be-you never know until the gates open. But you'll be getting an overlaid 25-1 or so to find out of his multi-surface staying power works on the Louisville dirt, as opposed to the 15-1 price that more realistically corresponds to Tiz the Bomb's chances.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

A bet on 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It in the Derby will require a leap of faith that he has matured significantly through the month of April and into the first week of May. You can see the raw makings of a really nice racehorse based on just three starts. And Charge It's pedigree (by Tapit and anchored by distance-loving second dam Take Charge Lady) definitely has longer-the-better underpinnings. But while his second in the GI Florida Derby was commendable considering it was his initial two-turn try and first race against winners, Charge it was not fully focused through the lane, and the Florida Derby's blah final furlong in :14.09 was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps this season (behind only the muddy GIII Withers S. in :14.15). In addition, 13 horses have now run back out of Charge It's two MSW races, and not a single one of those rivals won their next start, raising legit quality-of-competition questions.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

We have owner Amr Zedan diplomatically asserting he's not out to avenge his under-appeal Derby DQ of now-deceased Medina Spirit–even after having gone against the advice of his trainer by insisting on a Santa Anita Derby start so Taiba could earn last-chance Kentucky Derby qualifying points. We also have Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, who's about to be asked ceaselessly over the next 2 1/2 weeks to compare this precocious 'TDN Rising Star' to Justify, the dazzling Triple Crown winner he rode in 2018. So what will be the result when the narrative of redemption gets coupled in mainstream media with the sky's-the-limit appeal of a flashy, undefeated prospect? Probably the most overbet Derby phenom in a long time. Yes, this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) is worthy of superlatives after posting back-to-back triple-digit Beyers in both a MSW sprint and the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which this colt sparred the entire length of the lane against a more seasoned stablemate. But Taiba would truly have to be a once-in-a-generation outlier to thrive against top-of-the-crop competition at 10 furlongs in lifetime start number three, all while shipping for the first time and experiencing a field far larger and far more talented than anything he's faced in limited SoCal action. Too much too soon is the verdict here-although admittedly, it would be pretty neat to witness Taiba shatter conventional wisdom.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

I'm attempting to take a more forgiving look at Messier's Santa Anita Derby second, a race I initially described as a “failure to slam the door.” After all, this $470,000 FTKSEL 'TDN Rising Star' forced a favored pacemaker through robust fractions, then, somewhat unexpectedly, had to work hard to try and swat away a more-resilient-than-expected Taiba (Messier initially put away that stablemate in upper stretch, but Taiba re-engaged and powered past). Considering the Santa Anita Derby was the first outing in eight weeks for this Empire Maker colt-and taking into account that Messier was unlikely to have been fully cranked for the effort-the try wasn't half bad (99 Beyer). But the sticking point I can't quite overcome is Messier's penchant for losing at low odds. He's twice been beaten at fifty cents on the dollar, including a no-excuse letdown in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity when he was one-paced after getting a strong second run on the spent speed.

11) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

Barber Road ($15,000 KEENOV) isn't going to wow anybody in the Derby. But this gritty Race Day gray might be capable of hammering past a good portion of the field with his usual late-race determination, and he figures to be picking off horses when distanced-challenged contenders are bailing out. Of all the entrants who'll start north of 40-1 in this year's Derby, I respect this John Ortiz trainee the most. He lost a shoe at some point in the Arkansas Derby, then lost momentum a furlong from the finish when he ran up on the heels of a caving pacemaker. But Barber Road was keen to re-rally, and he prevailed in the “race within the race” by nailing the favorite in a tight place photo. This is all pretty good no-pressure Derby mojo for a colt who's already bankrolled more than 36 times his auction price.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC.
B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

The Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (24) than any other stakes, and the winners of that Gulfstream prep are usually well backed in Louisville. But this year White Abarrio ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) figures to be the first Florida Derby winner since Materiality in 2015 to go off at 10-1 or higher in the wagering. This athletically nimble Race Day gray has some “punch above his weight” appeal, and we've already seen him beat such well-regarded contenders as Simplification (twice), Mo Donegal, Charge It and Tiz the Bomb. But this Gulfstream specialist (4-for-4) benefitted from ideal circumstances in both of this graded stakes victories, making you wonder if he can improve further under the duress of 10 furlongs. In the traffic-snarled Holy Bull S., White Abarrio enjoyed clear sailing up front while four of his main foes encountered trip woes. And in the Florida Derby, three of White Abarrio's rivals were casualties of poorly executed pace decisions that led to two separate, self-immolating speed duels before the field hit the far turn.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): It was interesting that Zozos got bet down to 5-2 second choice behind even-money Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. That was both his stakes debut and first non-Lasix race after winning his maiden and an allowance, and Zozos had never led the field in the early stages of either of those first two victories. But this 'TDN Rising Star' and homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow forged straight to the front and held well after setting legit splits under two-pronged pressure from a hounding 15-1 long shot and the more intimidating Epicenter, who eventually powered past for the win. Right now Zozos is a true wild card for the Derby. Is he a piece of the pace? A capable presser on the improve? His sire, grandsire, and damsire (Munnings, Speightstown, Forestry) all made their marks sprinting, so there's not much distance-centric foundation in his immediate family.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): A points qualifier who remains uncommitted, Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) went off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but he hit the side of the gate at the break and never really recovered. He's 3-for-3 in one-turn races, but untested in terms of both distance and his ability to handle elite-level competition.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He won't truly turn three until May 5, but the GII UAE Derby victor is 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater. Since the 2000 inception of the UAE Derby, 11 of its winners have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth, along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): This $430,000 KEESEP colt has some likeable attributes, but not enough to elevate him to a serious Derby threat. He started his career with two Tapeta wins; was not disgraced when a 24-1 fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths on the dirt against Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon, then chased Tiz the Bomb home when second at Turfway. He closed capably on Saturday to win the GIII Lexington S. over 1 1/16 miles, cornering four wide on both turns. Originally with the pace, Tawny Port backed off, then sprang a late run with his head cocked toward the stands while the only one gaining ground on a tiring leader. This colt finished well, but he faced no daunting late-race competition over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): In the Arkansas Derby, jockey Florent Geroux sensed Cyberknife was keen early. So he opted out of dueling through a first quarter in an unsustainable :22.11, then barreled through three successively slower quarter-mile splits and a final eighth in a so-so :13.18 to win going away while shifting and drifting through the lane. Not exactly a work of art for this $400,000 FTKSEL colt, but that initial Grade I impression won't matter much if Cyberknife keeps winning and his Beyers remain on an upward arc (last three: 72, 87, 92).

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): The 75-1 winner of the GII Rebel S. has only one functioning eye because of an unfortunate run-in with a tree branch as a yearling. The last time there was a right-eye-only horse in the Derby was in 2017, when Patch ran an admirable 14th despite drawing outermost gate 20. Because his “overcoming adversity” story kept getting repeated, Patch went off way, way underlaid in the betting at 14-1. Will similar support be bestowed upon Un Ojo? We know he can save ground and make one chug-home run. Rain would also be a plus-his two best races occurred on a muddy track (second in the Withers) and on an Oaklawn surface listed as “fast” when the Rebel commenced in a just-starting downpour.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): Seven races in Dubai at Meydan and Jebel Ali since Dec. 2, with the first six of them at seven furlongs or shorter (two wins). Three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) sought the lead in the UAE Derby and held well until the deep end of the Meydan stretch. Trainer Bhupat Seemar has never started a horse in North America under his own license, but he worked for five years under Bob Baffert two decades ago, including when that stable won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): He's winless beyond the maiden ranks from five starts and has never been closer than 10 1/2 lengths to the winner in any of his three Santa Anita stakes against short fields. Best Beyer is 83. Yet he currently holds the final Derby qualifying position based on his accrued 30 points.

The post The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 20

We've entered that fun phase of microscopic scrutiny that accompanies the GI Kentucky Derby waiting game. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard that Churchill Downs will use to determine starting berths; that list can be accessed here.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,265,144.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3, 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140

When you're the undefeated juvenile champ coming off a gutsy win in the most demanding prep of the season, you'd better expect to have a figurative target on your back in Louisville. This Tapit-sired Godolphin homebred can be a threatening pace presence while still retaining multiple gears for a stretch fight, as evidenced by his 97-Beyer Speed Figure win by a neck in the GII Blue Grass S. after an arduous stretch battle. That's a potent combination of tactics the majority of his foes have yet to demonstrate. The final furlong of this 'TDN Rising Star's Blue Grass was clocked in :12.53, the fastest in seven editions of that stakes since Keeneland switched back from synthetic to dirt. But we're now going on 30 years since the last Blue Grass winner—Strike the Gold in 1991—also won the Derby. In the 21st Century, Street Sense, American Pharoah and Nyquist have been the only 2-year-old Eclipse Award winners to win the Derby. There were no dual Eclipse/Derby winners in the 1980s or '90s. But in the '70s that feat was routine, and the honor roll includes some legendary names: Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, Secretariat and Riva Ridge.

2) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

A bet on Known Agenda in the Derby is essentially a wager that he's put early-season greenness behind him and will be able to leverage the stamina and speed aspects of his pedigree effectively enough to excel over 10 furlongs. The dam of this athletic chestnut, Byrama, was bred in Great Britain but was exported stateside to earn a Grade I win at nine furlongs over a synthetic surface at Hollywood Park. And Known Agenda himself already has four lifetime attempts at 1 1/8 miles, which leaves him positioned a bit better than many of his competitors. A $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG, this Curlin colt looked impressive gliding up the rail to cuff the field in the GI Florida Derby, his second straight win since adding blinkers. But his 94 Beyer Speed Figure in that race was a 12-point leap off of his career best, and Known Agenda will have to up that number yet again to win in Louisville, where a clear, ground-saving run might not be as achievable in the 20-horse Derby the way it was at Gulfstream.

3) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

Hot Rod Charlie figures to go off as the third choice in the Derby betting, and at 7-1 or so I can see him offering a hint of value (as opposed to the two horses ranked ahead of him, both of whom figure to be slightly underlaid). If this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) does manage to earn a blanket of roses, it will probably be because he manages to fuse the raw speed of his older half-brother (2019 sprint champ Mitole) with the staying power of his sire (Oxbow, the wire-to-wire winner of the 2013 GI Preakness S.). Known for being relaxed in morning training, Hot Rod Charlie comes across as a horse who is speed-centric but doesn't require the lead, and he's run well in deep stretch under sustained pressure and amid bumping. There is one historical caveat that works against Hot Rod Charlie, though: He ran second at 94-1 in last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The 108 horses who have run 1-2-3 in the 36-year history of the Juvenile have only accounted for four Derby wins (3.7%), meaning a good race in the Juvenile has devolved into a negative-slanted metric for projecting success six months later in the Derby.

4) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 5-2-2-1, $320,050.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6, 3rd GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt bulleted a half mile in :47.20 Sunday at Keeneland (1/27) in his first timed workout since giving division leader Essential Quality a serious run for the money in the Blue Grass S. (97 Beyers for both). On Monday Highly Motivated shipped to Churchill, were trainer Chad Brown hopes to hone this bay's tactical speed into an effective weapon over 10 furlongs. Highly Motivated also beat No. 2-ranked Known Agenda in a MSW last season in New York, meaning he's fared the best in head-to-head matchups against the horses at the top of the crop. Over the past three decades, contenders who have lost the Blue Grass have actually performed better in the Derby than the winners of that prep, with Street Sense (2007), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Sea Hero (1993) all tasting defeat in Lexington prior to reversing form in Louisville. But despite the arresting visual nature of Highly Motivated's stretch fight in the Blue Grass, this colt will go to the Derby without having seen the inside of a winner's circle in nearly six months. You have to go back to Super Saver in 2010 to find any Derby winner who did not win a race at age three prior to winning the Derby.

5) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm LLC;
B-Heider Family Stables (KY); T-Ken McPeek. Sales History: $950,000 Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record:
GSW, 6-3-0-0, $262,739.
Last Start: 1st GIII Stonestreet Lexington S., KEE, Apr. 10
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Last week King Fury was parked way out at No. 28 on the qualifying list, but seven defections have tightened up the field to the point where he now only needs one other horse to opt out to make the starting cutoff. This $950,000 FTSAUG Curlin colt isn't ideally prepped for the Derby with just one start at age three, but trainer Ken McPeek no doubt can build off of King Fury's meaningful base of six lifetime starts at 1 1/16 miles and a punch-through 95-Beyer win over the slop in the GIII Lexington S. on Apr. 10. We are certainly in an era when A-list prospects race only sparingly, but to give you an idea of the hurdle that King Fury must overcome to win the Derby, consider this: Since 1937, horses with just one sophomore start prior to the Derby are a collective 0-for-24 (and no horse has even attempted that feat since 2013). Yet in this case, I'm willing to go against convention if the price is right, pari-mutuelly speaking. This is a “live” Derby horse if he sneaks in.

6) DYNAMIC ONE (c, 3, Union Rags–Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
O-Repole Stable, Phipps Stable & St Elias Stable; B-Phipps Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $725,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 5-1-2-0, $194,120
Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

Few bettors are going to back Dynamic One in the Derby based on his speed numbers alone. He was nipped at the wire by a 72-1 stablemate in the slowest running ever of the GII Wood Memorial (89 Beyer), and his maiden win by 5 1/4 lengths was achieved by pressing a 42-1 pacemaker through soft splits in a nine-furlong race clocked in 1:55.21 (79 Beyer). But trainer Todd Pletcher's initially high aspirations for this $725,000 KEESEP colt are starting to coalesce into discernible improvement, as Dynamic One is cultivating the look of an effective stayer who is just now learning how to finish. Earlier in his career, this Union Raags colt drew some undesirable posts and he had trouble leaving the gate in three starts. But in the Wood he rated patiently four wide on both turns, then wrested control of a six-way go from the quarter pole home before losing in the final jump to Bourbonic (Bernardini). Sired by a GI Belmont S. winner and with a female pedigree that resonates with Phipps-homebred stamina influences, Dynamic One's lofty ranking at No. 7 is not so much an assessment of where he stands now, but a prognostication of what he might be capable of orchestrating at long odds on May 1.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

Jockey Mike Smith will be the new rider for this $525,000 KEESEP colt from Steve Asmussen's barn. Smith is 2-for-26 in the Derby, and it's interesting to juxtapose the odds of his two winners, Giacomo (50-1 in 2005) and Justify (the 2018 fave who went on to win the Triple Crown). But Smith's luck in the last two Derbies hasn't been so hot: In 2019, he was the rider of morning-line fave Omaha Beach, who got injured and scratched days before the race; he instead picked up the ride on 24-1 Cutting Humor, who ran tenth. Last summer, Smith opted off of eventual Derby winner Authentic to instead ride Honor A.P., who finished fourth. Smith doesn't often ride for Asmussen (they race on different circuits except for big racing days), but he won with the last two mounts the trainer offered him at Churchill last June 27. Smith's task with Midnight Bourbon will involve teaching this capable (three 93+ Beyers this year) stalker how to seal the deal, because this Tiznow bay has had trouble putting away opponents under pressure. Midnight Bourbon has never been off the board in seven lifetime starts, a nice foundation that has yet to be capped with a breakthrough effort.

8) ROCK YOUR WORLD (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
O-Hronis Racing LLC & Talla Racing LLC. B-Ron & Deborah McAnally (KY). T-John Sadler. Sales History: $650,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $546,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Pasadena S., SA, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

Although Rock Your World's record stands at a perfect 3-for-3, trainer John Sadler told TDN last week that it took a lot of behind-the-scenes prep to make the leap from winning a MSW turf sprint and a $100,000 grass stakes to wiring a Grade I field with a 100 Beyer in this colt's first dirt try. “After the Pasadena [S.], we went to work a little bit harder on things that weren't working for him. We took him to the gate three times before the Santa Anita Derby, we did extra schooling in the paddock,” Sadler said. “I also wanted to start on the grass because I thought it would be easier. He's a big horse [and I] wanted to give him time to develop, grow up, mature into himself. He's done that…. Does whatever you want. Willing worker. Pretty nice horse to train. Good energy.” Despite a pedigree with some convincing stamina influences (by Candy Ride [Arg] out of an Empire Maker mare), Rock Your World may still be in for a class shock in Louisville. His Santa Anita Derby was soft in terms of quality, with only one stakes winner among the eight horses he beat by 4 1/4 lengths.

9) SUPER STOCK (c, 3, Dialed In–Super Girlie, by Closing Argument)
O-Erv Woolsey & Keith Asmussen; B-Pedro & P J Gonzalez (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-2, $804,762.
Last Start: 1st, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10.
Accomplishments: 2nd Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3; 3rd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 5. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 109

Super Stock might be a late arrival on the Derby scene, but wind the clock back to last autumn to recall this $70,000 KEESEP colt by Dialed In finished just 4 3/4 lengths behind Essential Quality in a Grade I stakes at Keeneland, then was bet down to 9-10 favoritism when second in a black-type stakes at Churchill. This Steve Asmussen trainee then didn't race for nearly five months, but apparently got more out of his 40-1 fourth in the GII Rebel S. than was evident on paper, rebounding to win the GI Arkansas Derby with a well-executed, ground-saving surge into a tiring speed setup. On the plus side, this is a horse who consistently advances his position in the stretch and could be on the cusp of getting good at the right time. On the minus side, the subpar performances of the two 'TDN Rising Stars' he passed in the stretch at Oaklawn were so iffy that the connections of Concert Tour (Street Sense) have already opted out of the Derby and those of Caddo River (Hard Spun) are still on the fence.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $315,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 74

When the subject of trainer Bob Baffert's Derby prowess gets brought up, it isn't long before someone chimes in that it's not surprising he's won six Derbies considering the depth of his well-stocked stable that annually gets replenished with fashionably bred, high-priced colts. But if Medina Spirit–Baffert's lone remaining Derby candidate this year–delivers win number seven, no one is going to say this low-budget bargain ($1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN) was out of the reach for everyone else at the sales ring. This Protonico colt's 2-3-0 record from five starts (with a Grade II stakes win and Beyers routinely in the mid-90s) is all the more impressive considering Medina Spirit was discovered to have had an entrapped epiglottis after the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. He had surgery to correct it, missing practically no training, and was a best-of-the-rest second behind Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby the first time he raced after the operation.

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $361,252.
Last Start: 6th GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52

If you can avert your eyes from Mandaloun's no-punch sixth as the beaten fave in the Louisiana Derby, the overall past performance block for this 'TDN Rising Star' isn't badly tarnished. This Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief kept credible company in his first four starts, registering improving Beyers in each of those races. He's a stalker with some seasoning and a speed-over-stamina pedigree, and he won his only start at Churchill. But beware of this red flag: Trainer Brad Cox has started a total of 10 horses on dirt at 1 1/4 miles or longer over the last five years. None have won, and only one managed to hit the board.

12) SOUP AND SANDWICH (c, Into Mischief–Souper Scoop, by Tapit)
O-Live Oak Plantation; B-Live Oak Stud (FL); T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-2-1-0, $203,875.
Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

I don't rank him as an overt win threat, I generally respect any young horse that trainer Mark Casse thinks is ready to attempt a sizable step up in class and distance. This gray didn't debut until Jan. 28 in a restricted sprint for Florida-breds, then only had to beat two other starters in a two-turn Tampa allowance. But this Live Oak homebred shouldered the pace burden on the front end of the Florida Derby and still had something remaining to punch back at Known Agenda in upper stretch, earning second despite finishing on his left lead through the lane.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Caddo River (Hard Spun): The Derby status of 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River was in limbo up until deadline for this column on Monday, and it could remain undecided until later in the week. This Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable is expected to be a key pace component if he does start in the Derby, but he appeared out of his comfort zone in each of his last two stakes preps at Oaklawn, when he was rank while stalking in the GII Rebel S. (fading to fifth) and when he got dueled into defeat in the Arkansas Derby (regaining second but not authoritatively so). Caddo River does own an impressive 9 ½-length victory at Churchill, which could be of benefit if he goes in the Derby.

14) Hidden Stash (Constitution): Deep closer Hidden Stash's two in-the-money Tampa stakes attempts were sneaky-good efforts, particularly his runner-up try in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. But he didn't advance when outclassed in the Blue Grass, checking in as a one-paced fourth with a slight Beyer regression. This $50,000 KEESEP does own a win over the Churchill main track and Hidden Stash figures to be passing horses late in the lane, making him a potential inclusion for underneath spots in exotics.

15) Helium (Ironicus): After Helium won the GII Tampa Bay Derby, trainer Mark Casse said what impressed him most was how this 3-for-3, $55,000 FTKOCT colt closed from midpack even though the pre-race strategy was to have this Ironicus colt sitting closer to the early pace. Such versatility can be a virtue in a mad-scramble race like the Kentucky Derby, which Helium will attempt off an eight-week gap. But his 84 Beyer for that effort rates on the low end for prep-race speed figures, and the nine horses that have run back out of the Tampa Derby have combined for only one next-out win and one third (both requiring class drops).

16) Bourbonic (Bernardini): This Calumet homebred required a drop into maiden-claiming company to register his first win back in December, and he subsequently failed to deliver when second in a Parx allowance two months later. Let go at 72-1 odds in the slowly run Wood Memorial, he looped the group from far back under an impeccably timed ride by Kendrick Carmouche. There is some logic in thinking that this is a horse (whose Beyers have been on an upward arc for four straight races) who is sure to get a quicker cadence to set the table for him in the Derby, so maybe lightning will strike twice.

17) Sainthood (Mshawish): Sainthood ($100,000 KEEJAN, $90,000 KEESEP RNA, $62,000 OBSOCT) was the only horse gaining on the winner when second (84 Beyer) in the GIII Jeff Ruby S. at Turfway. But that race as a whole looks aberrational considering the favorite got wiped out at the break and there was a logjam of traffic that impeded several late runners in the stretch. As a May 15 foal, Sainthood won't truly turn three before Derby day.

18) O Besos (Orb): Son of the 2013 Derby victor was most recently third, beaten just two lengths, in the Louisiana Derby. Beyers have ascended in all five starts for this homebred colt, although habit of slow starts and giving up real estate when wide into the first turns of route races could be costly in the Derby.

19) Like the King (Palace Malice): His sire won the 12-furlong Belmont S. in 2013 and his damsire (Corinthian) was a high-torque miler who won both the GI Metropolitan H. and the inaugural Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in 2007. This rangy chestnut ($28,000 KEENOV, $170,000 OBSOCT) has never been off the board in six lifetime tries, but his only three wins have been over turf (once at Belterra) and Tapeta (twice at Turfway).

20) Dream Shake (Twirling Candy): Debuted in a big way at 20-1 odds Feb. 7, earning 'TDN Rising Star' status when coasting home by 4 ¾ lengths (96 Beyer) over a decent field (two next-out winners). But since coming off Lasix and stepping up to graded stakes, this colt has twice run no-impact thirds, beaten an aggregate 16 ¾ lengths. He bulleted five-eighths in :59.20 (1/72) on Saturday at Santa Anita.

The post The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 20 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 6

The first Saturday in April's “power trio” of nine-furlong qualifying preps is in the books. We also learned last week that no Japan-based horse will be accepting the “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” invitation this year, and that none of the qualifying European horses are nominated, meaning they'd have to supplement $200,000 to get in. So at this time it appears that all 20 starting spots will go to American horses. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. That list can be accessed here.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,265,144.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3, 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140

'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality's relentless GII Blue Grass S. win now rates as the divisional measuring stick for accomplishment under sustained intensity. The undefeated juvenile champ didn't have to uncork such a highly torqued display of force in his final Derby prep to sail into Louisville as the favorite. But the scary-good nature of his performance is underpinned by trainer Brad Cox's belief that this Tapit-sired Godolphin homebred is only going to build off such a demanding slugfest. “EQ” veered outward and bumped at the break but quickly righted himself to seize a brief early lead. Jockey Luis Saez then skillfully backed him out of a protracted speed duel with stretch-out pacemaker Highly Motivated (Into Mischief), although EQ was keen to re-engage on the backstretch run. Applying outside pressure about a neck back, Saez edged incrementally closer until EQ ranged up on even terms with his rival 2 1/2 furlongs out, and the cadence quickened with Highly Motivated continually repulsing the champ's threatening surges. They shifted and drifted in lockstep through the lane, and only in the final 50 yards did the determined gray finally edge away, earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. The final furlong of the Blue Grass was clocked in :12.53, the fastest in seven editions of that stakes since Keeneland's main track switched from synthetic back to dirt.

2) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 7-3-1-3, $422,440.
Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP. Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 80

Long-striding Greatest Honour ran three visually impressive races at Gulfstream this winter and has always figured to be a “longer-the-better” type of colt who should excel over 10 furlongs. But he can't quite match the tactical toolbox of new No. 1 kingpin Essential Quality, who commands races with speed-oriented pressure instead of launching one prolonged bid from the back of the pack. This Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred tried to follow the rail-running winner in the Florida Derby, but holes that opened for Known Agenda (Curlin) closed before Greatest Honour could fly through them; that's the inherent risk of being a trip- and pace-dependent stayer. I'm not a “numbers guy,” yet I do have to admit it's concerning this colt has never cracked 89 (and even regressed to an 85 last time out) on the Beyer scale. But trainer Shug McGuaghey's main goal was never about getting Greatest Honour to peak on the final Saturday in March, and you can't quantify in any sort of numerical figuration the value that this patient Hall-of-Fame conditioner brings to the equation in terms of having this colt tighter for May 1.

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

The more I look at Concert Tour's past performances, the more I think he's capable of punching through in a big way in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, which could stamp him as a horse to beat on the first Saturday in May. This undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' looms large off a frontrunning GII Rebel S. score that was accomplished professionally and all under his own power. The ultra-confident, can-do-no-wrong way that Joel Rosario has been riding through the first quarter of 2021 adds immeasurably to the overall package, and he is a nice fit for a horse like Concert Tour, who likes to be close to the pace but doesn't absolutely need to be on the lead to fire his best shot. Will history also be on Concert Tour's side? The only horses to pull off the Arkansas/Kentucky Derby double since 1980 have been American Pharoah (2015), Smarty Jones (2004) and Sunny's Halo (1983). But keep an eye on whoever finishes second at Oaklawn: Horses who have been the runner-up in the Arkansas Derby during that same time frame have also won three Kentucky Derbies–Super Saver (2010), Grindstone (1996) and Lil E. Tee (1992).

4) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

Known Agenda now has three wins at nine furlongs and has beaten No. 2-ranked Greatest Honour twice, but what was most impressive about his 94-Beyer Florida Derby victory was how he settled at the rail and came through inside of horses to launch into contention off the final turn. The addition of blinkers two starts back has noticeably increased this Curlin colt's comfort level with racing in tight quarters, and he generally seems to be focused in his stretch runs (beyond some excusable drifting under left-handed stick work in his final prep at Gulfstream). But in no races at age three has this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG faced a really stern challenge through the final two furlongs of his races. His Feb. 26 allowance win by 11 lengths at 1-2 odds more or less equated to a public workout, and in the Florida Derby the only rival he had to nail in deep stretch was a 12-1 shot who had been softened up by forcing the pace. Having said that, momentum is definitely on Known Agenda's side, which is always a plus heading to Louisville.

5) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 5-2-2-1, $320,050.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6, 3rd GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt could very well end up heading to the Derby with the best runner-up performance in any 2021 prep race. Losing only by a neck in the Blue Grass S., his admirable tenacity on the lead while attempting two turns for the first time and being ceaselessly hounded by undefeated juvenile champ Essential Quality cannot be understated. Only time will tell if such a taxing effort toughens or saps both colts for the Derby; if either one manages to springboard forward off that demanding race, look out. Highly Motivated led through an opening quarter of :23.83, then Javier Castellano toned down the second quarter to :24.58. The third and fourth quarters were nearly identical in :23.87 and :23.89, and as noted above in Essential Quality's write-up, the final eighth was the fastest for this stakes in seven runnings on dirt over Keeneland's current nine-furlong configuration. Highly Motivated beat No. 4-ranked Known Agenda in their lone MSW matchup last season in New York, and his track-record, key-race stakes core on the Breeders' Cup undercard last November reinforces the idea that he is more than capable against upper-crust company.

6) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

The one-two horses from last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile are now the one-two horses on the Derby points qualifying list after both Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie have completed their final preps. This half-brother to 2019 sprint champ Mitole (Eskendereya) is demonstrating improvement both visually and by the numbers (every lifetime Beyer faster than previous through seven lifetime starts), and jockey Joel Rosario has previously noted how this colt's ability to relax during morning training translates to him being responsive in the afternoons under varying pace scenarios and levels of pressure. Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. This two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) celebrates his third birthday Apr. 11.

7) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092.
Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

Trainer Brad Cox said last week to expect a “more aggressive” Caddo River in Saturday's Arkansas Derby. “We're not going to sit on him quite as much as we did last time,” he added, referencing the refusal-to-rate meltdown that this 'TDN Rising Star' imposed upon himself when he conceded the lead to Concert Tour then fought the rider in the Rebel S. last time out. This Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable acted much more poised and professional in two New York MSW placings last autumn, then commanded the pace and won allowance and stakes starts at Churchill and Oaklawn by a combined 19 1/2 lengths. Cox said last month that Caddo River is the fastest (based on breezing) among his three Derby candidates. But it remains to be seen if that speed can be harnessed into a multi-dimensional tactical weapon that will allow Caddo River to control the flow of a race over 10 furlongs.

8) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

There is some upside to Midnight Bourbon when you look at his entire body of work, but the caveat is you'd be backing him in the Derby coming off of two so-so performances and no wins since mid-January. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow boasts a seven-race foundation of races at a mile or longer, five appearances in graded stakes, no off-the-board finishes, and Beyers of 93, 96 and 96 in three sophomore starts. It will be tough to leave this Steve Asmussen trainee out of Derby exotics, but building your entire betting strategy around him seems iffy. He hasn't yet learned how to seal the deal, and when he hooked up with Hot Rod Charlie for the final 2 1/2 furlongs of the Louisiana Derby, Midnight Bourbon was trying hard but clearly got outkicked after enjoying a sweet stalking trip that should have set him up nicely for a powerful finish. He closed at 26-1 in the Derby future pool right after his GIII Lecomte win three months ago and was 27-1 in the most recent version of that bet at the end of March.

9) ROCK YOUR WORLD (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
O-Hronis Racing LLC & Talla Racing LLC. B-Ron & Deborah McAnally (KY). T-John Sadler. Sales History: $650,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $546,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Pasadena S., SA, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

This two-time grass winner (at six furlongs and a mile) stretched out to nine furlongs on dirt and really caught the eye with a 100-Beyer wire job in the GI Santa Anita Derby. That breakout performance earned this unbeaten $650,000 KEESEP colt by Candy Ride (Arg) a berth in the gate in Louisville, but the shallow-on-paper nature of this year's Santa Anita Derby–no other stakes winners besides this colt and beaten fave Medina Spirit (Protonico)–leaves Rock Your World's standing among Kentucky Derby peers kind of hazy. He was prominently placed from the outset and took control seven-eighths out when no one else seemed eager to do so. Tracked by a 45-1 presser, Rock Your World clicked off consecutive quarters of :22.42, :23.69, :24.53 and :25.63, progressively slowing the splits yet opening up on the far turn because no rivals were seriously firing. He finished up 4 1/4 lengths the best through a capable final eighth of :12.90, but he still strikes me as a wild card who's difficult to place in the pecking order. On the plus side, there is some 10-furlong pedigree promise with Empire Maker as his damsire, and Rock Your World doesn't figure strictly as a needs-the-lead threat based on two previous stalking wins on the turf.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $315,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 74

Medina Spirit is bound for Louisville off a best-of-the-rest second against a soft crew in the Santa Anita Derby as the 9-10 fave. His upside has always been that he's a hard trier who was a bargain buy ($1,000 OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN), and this Protonico colt also stacks up numbers-wise as a Kentucky Derby candidate (four separate Beyers at 94+ as a 3-year-old). “He ran a game race like he always does,” trainer Bob Baffert said Sunday. “The winner was very impressive, but our horse showed up, he ran his race, he came out of it well and we've got four weeks to sharpen him up.”

11) REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) (Dubawi {Ire}–Minidress {GB}, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Godolphin (IRE). T-Charles Appleby. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, 5-4-0-0, $549,879.
Last Starts: 1st G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 27
Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

This Godolphin homebred by Dubawi (Ire) is a slow breaker, but once this large-framed gelding ramps up to cruising speed, his appeal is evident. He circled the field to paste an okay group in the UAE Derby by open lengths, has won under both 131 and 135 pounds as a 2-year-old, and he does have dirt experience. Since 2000, 11 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try).

12) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc & Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

The 3-for-3 winner of the Tampa Bay Derby will attempt to go 56 days between starts to win the Kentucky Derby. How unconventional is that? Regret won the 1915 Derby off a 259-day break. Sir Barton won the 1919 Derby off a 238-day rest. Since 1929 (the advent of more complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby was 42 days, equaled by Needles in 1956 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. And last year, when the pandemic forced the Derby to September, Authentic won it off a 49-day break. Trainer Mark Casse is generally known as a savvy layoff conditioner, and over the last five years he's won with layoffs of 31-60 days at a 17% clip. But when you drill down that stat to look at Casse's layoffs during that same time-away frame for starters at 10 furlongs or greater, the strike rate plummets to 1-for-56. Although this $55,000 FTKOCT colt by Ironicus is up against the grain of historical convention, the fact that he is tactically versatile and not locked into a certain running style (he's won on the lead, stalking, and closing) should stand him in good stead in a 20-horse race. Julien Leparoux will ride in the Derby.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Mandaloun (Into Mischief): After starting his career with some spark at 3-for-4, this 'TDN Rising Star' was a punchless sixth as the beaten favorite in his final prep race. “We're going to press forward straight to the Kentucky Derby,” trainer Brad Cox said last week. “He's a good colt, and I really don't know what to make of his Louisiana Derby.” Cox added that Mandaloun came out of the race in good order, and he has confidence this Juddmonte homebred's stout pedigree will rise to the occasion going 10 furlongs.

14) Soup and Sandwich (Into Mischief): Live Oak homebred took heat on the lead in the Florida Derby then stuck around late in the lane, running second behind Known Agenda. “I was very pleased, especially if he ever learns what he's doing,” trainer Mark Casse said post-race. “[Jockey] Johnny [Velazquez] said he had to fight with him a little. He stayed on his left lead all the way down the stretch. He's like that in the morning, too.”

15) Dynamic One (Into Mischief): His runner-up try in the GII Wood Memorial S. might have represented a better run than the winner's considering it was just the first start outside the maiden ranks for this $725,000 KEESEP colt. He was wide on both turns and just got pipped at the wire, earning the same 89 Beyer as the horse who beat him by a head.

16) Bourbonic (Bernardini): This Calumet homebred lobbed a 72-1 bomb into the Derby mix with a perfectly timed last-to-first move to steal the Wood Memorial in the final jump. But the final clocking of 1:54.49 was the slowest in the race's history and also the slowest of three consecutive nine-furlong races run Saturday at Aqueduct.

17) Hidden Stash (Constitution): This $50,000 KEESEP colt is currently on the outside looking in points-wise (No. 23 on the qualifying list), and his connections were non-committal about a Derby start after his Blue Grass fourth. I do like the fact that he was the only one gaining in the stretch of his two Tampa stakes; he's also won and has run third in two starts at Churchill. Hidden Stash is weak in the numbers category though, with an 83 Beyer twice being his lifetime best.

18) Rombauer (Twirling Candy): Fradkin homebred is currently 21st in qualifying points, so he's right on the cusp. Got bumped by the winner out of the gate in the Blue Grass, but it didn't really hamper his trip. He's run a faster Beyer in every consecutive start over six races, but would enter the Derby never having won on dirt (turf and Tapeta victories only).

19) Hosier (Pioneerof the Nile): Baffert-trained $625,000 FTSAUG colt goes in this weekend's Arkansas Derby. He owns a 1-for-3 lifetime record, with both losses at the hands of No. 3-ranked Concert Tour. Will face his stablemate again on Saturday in search of points and momentum to punch his ticket to Louisville.

20) Like the King (Palace Malice): Big, rangy colt ($28,000 KEENOV, $170,000 OBSOCT) has never been off the board in six lifetime tries but has been beaten by large margins in only two dirt attempts.

The post The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 6 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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