TDN Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 23

No, the world didn't tilt off its axis last Saturday. But there was a seismic shift within the Top 12 rankings. 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief) was declared off the GI Kentucky Derby trail with a left hind ankle chip, and two other highly rated contenders failed to fire in the GII Louisiana Derby. But new shooters have filled the vacuum–as always. The cadence quickens while the plot thickens inside the six-week mark to Derby 147.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

There was plenty of upheaval in the standings behind Greatest Honour over the weekend while the Top 12 kingpin enjoyed a drama-free final tune-up prior to Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby. This Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred is a powerful, long-striding stayer who isn't afraid to face adversity square-on. After starting his career by closing admirably at shorter distances in deep New York MSW races, Greatest Honour dialed in to a winning groove at Gulfstream, pulling off the rare feat of closing to win from well off the tailgate in three straight 1 1/16-mile races (over a short-stretch configuration that tilts the advantage to speedsters). During that streak, Greatest Honour overcame dealing with a loose horse in his allowance win, uncoiled with a devastating stretch kick despite not being fully focused in the GIII Holy Bull S., then re-rallied in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) after getting clipped by a rival and losing momentum on the far turn. Trainer Shug McGaughey has been quietly confident this bay is a “longer-the-better” type of sophomore attempting to follow the same FOY/Florida Derby/Louisville path that McGaughey's only previous Kentucky Derby winner, Orb (Malibu Moon), took while winning all three of those races in 2013. The two main knocks against Greatest Honour are 1) his comparatively low Beyer Speed Figures (career best of 89, twice); and 2) his come-from-behind running style, which can be a hindrance in a 20-horse race like the Derby where closers are at the mercy of traffic.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality is Blue Grass bound, and the selection of that Toyota-sponsored Grade II Keeneland stakes was the most logical among the next-race options that were being considered for this Godolphin homebred. This athletic gray with a streak of aggression earned his juvenile championship over that surface when winning the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile there last autumn; as of this writing, no other Top 12 contenders are committed to that race. Essential Quality holds more than a few Derby aces at this stage of the season: he scores highly in terms of tactical prowess, has posted top-notch speed numbers that keep arcing upward; he's won in the slop and has won at Churchill. Now that Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), the 94-1 runner-up in the Juvenile, has broken through with a win in the Louisiana Derby (see below), I can no longer keep carping that Essential Quality didn't beat many horses of consequence in the Breeders' Cup (the second, third, and fifth horses have now all won stakes). But it's imperative to respect history, and the fact remains that only two of 36 Juvenile winners (5.5%) have gone on to win the Derby. Even if you widen that metric to include all the 1-2-3 finishers in the entire history of the Juvenile, the Breeders' Cup still rates as a very poor prognosticator of Derby success, with only four Derby winners emerging from those 108 in-the-money Juvenile finishers (3.7%).

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour burst into the Top 12 after his 4 1/4-length thrashing of the GII Rebel S. field at Oaklawn Mar. 13. This Street Sense homebred for Gary and Mary West torqued out a convincing score thanks to deft piloting by jockey Joel Rosario. Concert Tour broke running and forced rail-drawn favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun) to concede both the fence and the lead. Concert Tour maintained a margin of a length down the backstretch, then edged away under his own power while a clearly flustered Caddo River was fully driven and eventually cracked. No other closers were in it to win it, and this colt ran up the score while looking strong doing so. Based on the visually impressive nature of the victory, I thought Caddo River's 94 Beyer might have clocked in higher (it matched his last-out GII San Vicente S. win). But the effort was just the third-fastest of four 1 1/16 miles races at Oaklawn that afternoon, slower than two stakes and only 0.19 seconds faster than an allowance (all for older horses). Something to think about down the line: Rosario might have to choose between Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie, the other new shooter ranked right behind him at No. 4.

4) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

What do you get when you breed the dam of 2019 sprint champ Mitole to the wire-to-wire winner of the 2013 GI Preakness S.? The answer is Hot Rod Charlie, a determined son of Oxbow who solidified his status as a Top 12 contender with a 99-Beyer win in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. For everyone who thought his 94-1 near-miss in the Breeders' Cup was a fluke (that would include me), Saturday's gritty win should serve notice that this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) reliably scores higher in tenacity than many of his peers at this point in the Triple Crown chase. Hot Rod Charlie broke running, and when jockey Joel Rosario sensed no other rivals were eager to assume command, he forged to the front with stalker Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) applying pressure from the outside. Five-sixteenths from the wire, Midnight Bourbon appeared primed to pounce but could not wrest away the lead, and Hot Rod Charlie kept outkicking him under judicious handling by Rosario (guiding home his nation-leading 11th graded stakes winner of 2021). “Working with him in the morning, he relaxes and you don't have to get him in the race,” Rosario said. “He handled the distance very well. Very impressive. With [Midnight Bourbon] coming on his outside, he really fought back. He doesn't have to be on the lead. He can do anything. He can be a little bit off the pace and will run the same way.”

5) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

Spielberg will go next in the Florida Derby, and that's an unusual move for trainer Bob Baffert. Despite being loaded with talented 3-year-olds every season and often having to shop for non-conflicting stakes to keep them apart, this Grade I prep never seems to be on Baffert's radar screen. In fact, Baffert has only started horses at Gulfstream on four occasions over the last four years, and each was in the GI Pegasus World Cup (two wins, a second, and a seventh). Spielberg, a $1-million KEESEP colt, is by Union Rags, who was a narrowly beaten third at 2-5 odds in the 2012 Florida Derby. Union Rags then ran seventh in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness, but won the GI Belmont S. by edging out the Baffert-trained Paynter (Awesome Again) by a neck. “He's a great-feeling horse,” Baffert said of Spielberg, who has eight starts worth of experience, but is currently parked at 16th on the qualifying list with 17 points. “He came out of [the GIII Southwest S.] in great shape,” Baffert added, explaining that Spielberg still needs to work on some gate issues. An awkward start in the slop at Oaklawn left this chestnut with far too much work to do, yet he still closed with purpose to get second behind juvenile champ Essential Quality.

6) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092. Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Caddo River looked uncomfortable every step of the trip en route to a subpar fifth at 6-5 odds in the GII Rebel S., but the result was so aberrational that he deserves reconsideration in the GI Arkansas Derby. This 'TDN Rising Star' will need to rebound big-time in that final Kentucky Derby prep because right now he's on the outside looking in, ranked 24th with only 10 qualifying points. Caddo River didn't seize the lead from his inside post and jockey Florent Geroux opted to concede the pacemaking to Concert Tour, which would have been fine except that this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable was rank and refused to settle. By the time Geroux finally let him go, Concert Tour had momentum and confidence while Caddo River boiled over as a result of self-inflicted duress three-sixteenths from the wire. Trainer Brad Cox said Caddo River emerged from that meltdown none the worse for wear; in the best-case scenario the colt perhaps got a decent schooling out of it. But it's now an open question as to whether Caddo River can round into a multi-dimensional threat, because the only two races he's won have been the ones in which he led at every call.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13; 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd
GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66.

Midnight Bourbon ran hard and ran well when second in Saturday's Louisiana Derby, but his challenges were stoutly repulsed by convincing victor Hot Rod Charlie. Ranked second in qualifying points with 66, this $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow has earned his way into a Derby starting spot, and he will bring some upside to Louisville that could make him an intriguing wiseguy play at odds in the 20-1 range. He is the only 3-year-old in the nation to have run three 93 or better Beyer figures since January (96 in each of his last two efforts), and you can't quibble with his stamina-centric foundation of seven races at a mile or longer. Where the argument in favor of Midnight Bourbon starts to erode, though, is when you consider that he hasn't truly evolved into a horse who can seal the deal under pressure in the stretch. His GIII Lecomte S. score was aided by being able to control a moderate tempo, and he twice had the lead between calls in the GII Risen Star S. but couldn't parlay that optimal positioning into a win.

8) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

By late March, you're hoping that your Derby contender already has his “learning curve” races behind him, and if that's the case for Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, look out. Discount this colt's third-place try (beaten nine lengths) in the sloppy GII Remsen S. and overlook his twilight-zone Tampa fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. (double-digit lengths off the pace for the first time) and what do you see? How about a Curlin colt who beat No. 1 kingpin Greatest Honour in a New York MSW back in November and was later an 11-length Gulfstream winner Feb. 26 over the same track and distance as Saturday's Florida Derby? Now things could get interesting for this Todd Pletcher-trained $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG, who just celebrated his third birthday Mar. 22. The blinkers that Known Agenda added for last month's allowance-optional claiming blowout will stay, but the Lasix this colt got for the first time in that much-improved race won't be allowed in the Florida Derby because of new phase-out drug rules being implemented in Triple Crown prep races this spring.

9) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Opt. Clm., GP, Mar. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence was the easiest kind of winner at 1-10 odds when gliding home under light encouragement in a Mar. 11 allowance-optional claimer over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream. This Godolphin homebred broke fluidly, conceded the lead while pressing the pace, engaged the leader on the far turn, then took over at the quarter pole and had no anxious moments in the stretch. From a progression standpoint the effort should serve as a useful tightener for a looming stakes engagement. Prevalence had spiked a fever and missed some February training, so he's on the prowl for qualifying points in order to earn a berth in Louisville. But questions remain as to whether the timing is right for a run for the roses: Prevalence may be 2-for-2, but he's yet to attempt two turns and will need to come off Lasix in order to face stakes company. It's also worth noting that he ran a slower Beyer number against winners than he did in his debut, regressing from an 87 to an 83.

10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch) O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc &
Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM,
Mar. 6. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Helium's connections are forging an unconventional route to Louisville that won't include another prep race. That will leave an eight-week gap between this colt's 84-Beyer victory at 15-1 odds in the GII Tampa Bay Derby and the first Saturday in May. Jon Green, the manager of DJ Stable, told TDN the plan will be to train this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop Ironicus colt at Palm Meadows, then ship to Churchill three weeks out from the Derby. “Is it perfect? It's not perfect. Are there risks? Yes. But we feel what's best for the horse is to give him the time and slowly peak him into the Kentucky Derby,” Green said. He added that the riding assignment for the 3-for-3 colt has yet to be decided (Tampa-based Jose Ferrer was Helium's most recent jockey while Emma-Jayne Wilson rode in the two Woodbine victories). “Jose did a great job on him,” said Green. But, “for the same reason riding Jose at Tampa Bay made sense, you have to have somebody who has the experience in big races and the experience at Churchill Downs. That's no disrespect to Jose, but I would think we would need to explore other opportunities.”

11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-0, $182,530
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking was beaten nearly 10 lengths in each of his first two career tries, but his pedigree (by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Distorted Humor mare) suggested that neither six furlongs on the dirt nor yielding turf at 1 1/16 miles were going to be his sweet spot anyway. This $240,000 KEESEP bay woke up at 5-1 odds when tasked with nine furlongs on the main track at Aqueduct, then followed that win with another smart 1 1/8 mile-score in the GIII Withers S. That victory earned an 89 Beyer, and Risk Taking caught the eye by cruising along comfortably in stalk mode before quickening when cued to reel in a tiring pacemaker. He'll go two months between starts when attempting the GII Wood Memorial S. to decide if he's Derby-bound, but trying to get a read on this colt by scrutinizing his company lines doesn't yield much insight: nine rivals out of his two Aqueduct wins have now come back to make subsequent starts, and they've collectively managed only two next-out victories.

12) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $165,200.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Every Top 12 list should include at least one Cinderella-type horse, and this Protonico colt who hammered for relatively short money ($1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN) is it. This Bob Baffert-trained overachiever owns two wins and also twice ran second behind now-injured Life Is Good, and he's been a very capable workmate in the mornings for some of the better-bred and more expensive sophomores in Baffert's deep stable. Baffert earlier this year likened Medina Spirit to his 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm, who was similarly not an overly expensive OBS-sold colt ($16,500 OBSAUG yearling, $100,000 OBSAPR). Baffert also expressed a belief that this colt is more effective pressing the pace rather than setting it, so look for that strategy in the Apr. 3 GI Santa Anita Derby.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Collaborate (Into Mischief): This $600,000 FTSAUG 'TDN Rising Star' just turned three Mar. 22 and will aim to cap his birthday week with an upset in Saturday's Florida Derby. A geared-down 12 1/2-length MSW blowout win going a one-turn mile Feb. 27 (90 Beyer) signals this tall, athletic, fluid mover could make the jump in class.

Defunded (Dialed In): Here's your Santa Anita Derby sleeper. Impressive, easy win (83 Beyer) in MSW sprint right after the GI Santa Anita Derby; with stablemate Life Is Good out, he could get tossed into the deep end of the pool by Baffert.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): Only one gaining in the stretch of two Tampa stakes; mildly intriguing for a potential wake-up if he goes in the Blue Grass and gets a hot pace to chase.

Mandaloun (Into Mischief): Trainer Cox said “We couldn't come up with any reasons for the dull performance” after this 'TDN Rising Star' was a beaten-fave no-show in the Louisiana Derby. “Right now I'll probably nominate him to the [Apr. 10 GIII Stonestreet] Lexington [S. at Keeneland] and we'll see. He was done at the half-mile pole, so I don't think the distance was the reason. He ran out of horse fairly quickly.”

Roman Centurian (Empire Maker): Second in three-way photo in GIII Lewis; 'TDN Rising Star' listed last week as “probable” for Wood Memorial.

Rombauer (Twirling Candy): Last-to-first winner of the El Camino Real Derby was initially aiming for the Wood in New York, but defection of Life Is Good means he'll now stay in SoCal to contest Santa Anita Derby.

Triple Tap (Tapit): 'TDN Rising Star' and half-bro to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah owns an eye-catching MSW score sprinting. Baffert said post-race that he didn't want to rush this colt, but now that soph star Life Is Good is out of Derby consideration, this potential phenom might advance on the depth chart.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): It's not often that you see a 46-1 shot earn a 95 Beyer against stakes company like this colt did in the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. A stretch-out to nine furlongs in the Wood will test his mettle.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9

This week's edition represents the most movement within the Top 12 all season. But brace yourself: the nine-furlong preps are next, and so are the juicier qualifying points opportunities. The GI Kentucky Derby forecast is for continued–but intriguing–volatility.

If Greatest Honour continues on his path to prominence, one of the more intriguing storylines of Derby 147 will be how Courtlandt Farms privately bought dam Tiffany's Honour in foal to Tapit after she RNA'd for $2.3 million in at Fasig-Tipton November in 2015. The foal she delivered was a striking individual, but the tale took a tragic twist when that colt was later killed in a paddock accident. Tiffany's Honour had already been bred back to War Front, but the following year Courtlandt mated her with Tapit again. The result is Greatest Honour, and you can read in a more detailed TDN column by colleague Chris McGrath how even as a yearling, Greatest Honour resonated as “the 'whole package'–a big, leggy, scopey, rangy horse; correct, well-made, good bone, everything.” Greatest Honour competed in a trio of “loaded” New York MSW races, then punched through to the elite level with a trio of emphatic victories (two of them stakes) at Gulfstream. All of those wins were at 1 1/16 miles, which trainer Shug McGuaghey has described as too short for this distance-centric deep closer. Yes, you can argue that Greatest Honour hasn't posted any elite-level Beyer Speed Figures to legitimize the visually impressive nature of his wins. That could be a concern moving forward, as no fewer than 27 performances by 3-year-olds on dirt so far in 2021 have earned Beyers above Greatest Honour's career-best 89. But it won't stop this powerhouse colt from going off legitimately favored in the GI Florida Derby.

2) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC; B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $274,200.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

Front-running phenom Life Is Good has now paired two daunting triple-digit Beyers (101 and 107). But the most astounding number associated with this 'TDN Rising Star' is the 2-1 favoritism he earned in Sunday's Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager. This marked only the fourth time in 19 years that the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Olds” did not close as the March chalk. Saturday's win in the GII San Felipe S. was nothing short of scintillating. This $525,000 KEESEP purchase colt broke alertly from the rail, then bounded confidently onto the backstretch while intent on his work, but not keyed up about it. He maintained a three-length cushion through robust splits (:46.83 and 1:10.55), and when the closest three competitors all came under drives three-eighths out, jockey Mike Smith kept his mount in hand yet still managed to increase the gap. Life Is Good got momentarily distracted sailing solo through the stretch while drifting out (Smith said it was the video board) but won comfortably by eight lengths without ever having to give his all. Baffert acknowledged post-race his colt is “still green,” but quickly reminded that so, too, was 2020 Derby champ Authentic at this time last year. I'm still not quite ready to drape a blanket of roses around Life Is Good's broad, bay shoulders, though. He's raced just three times (twice against only four overmatched rivals), and none of the horses he's trounced is currently ranked as Top 12 contenders.

3) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality seamlessly bridged the gap between his juvenile championship season and his first start age three with one of those athletic, high-cruising, multiple-geared performances that have evolved as his hallmark over a 4-for-4 career. This Godolphin homebred colt's 4 1/4-length GIII Southwest S. score showed that racing in the slop is not a problem, and “EQ” has already won once (albeit sprinting) over the Churchill surface, which is another plus on his Derby progression checklist. He matches well with jockey Luis Saez, who very calmly executed an important lesson in patient rating when EQ was into the bit and initially wanted to pull about five furlongs out in the Southwest. Having said all of that, one box that remains unchecked is how EQ will fare once he gets his first taste of serious in-race adversity. In all three of his stakes wins, EQ's athleticism and tactical prowess have enabled Saez to pick outside positions well clear of potential trip trouble. And in no races has EQ had to deal with multiple waves of top-caliber closers. The four horses who chased him home for second and third in his two Grade I wins last autumn were 94-1, 52-1, 30-1 and 10-1, and none is a Top 12 contender.

4) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River will start favored in Saturday's GII Rebel S. based on his ability to quickly reach a high cruising speed and sustain it under pressure while never seeming to get anxious about it. Probables listed by Oaklawn suggest a likely field of eight, and the main competition for this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable figures to be Concert Tour (Street Sense), a fellow 'Rising Star' trained by Bob Baffert (who has won the Rebel seven times in its previous 12 runnings), and Keepmeinmind (Laoban), the deep-closing 80-Beyer victor of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill. Trainer Brad Cox told Horse Racing Nation last week that among his three Derby candidates–No. 3 Essential Quality and No. 5 Mandaloun (Into Mischief) are the others–Caddo River is “probably the fastest of the three, just based off how they breeze.” Cox added that despite that breakaway nature, “Caddo River is definitely the most laid back of the three.” Caddo River's company line from his blowout win in the Jan. 22 Smarty Jones S. upticked slightly on Saturday when fourth-place Moonlite Strike (Liam's Map), came back to run third at 34-1 in the GII Tampa Bay Derby.

5) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun's past performance cut alone is impressive enough to merit inclusion among the A-list sophomores. He's 3-for-4 with Beyers that have ascended in every race, and his only loss was a third-place try, beaten only a length, in his stakes and two-turn debut. But as the 4-to-5 fave in that GIII Lecomte S. loss, this Into Mischief homebred for Juddmonte couldn't seal the deal in an unfocused effort. Even after Mandaloun rebounded with a blinkers-on GII Risen Star S. win, jockey Florent Geroux said, “He's never given me his full potential.” Mandaloun will hit his third birthdate two days before his next expected start in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby, so maybe he's not that far off from stepping it up, maturity-wise. With 52 points, he's currently third on the qualifying list to start in Louisville, so it's not imperative that he produce an over-the-top effort in his final Kentucky Derby prep. Right now it might be best to consider Mandaloun the highest-ranked “work in progress” horse within the Top 12–with the expectation that his production needs to catch up to his potential within the next 7 1/2 weeks.

6) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

Proxy has never been worse than second in five lifetime outs, but you have to go back to a Dec. 19 N2L allowance win at Fair Grounds to find the performance that indicates how this colt is capable of controlling a race. Backed to 7-10 favoritism in a four-horse field, Proxy brushed the gate, confidently assumed command, conceded the lead between calls, then re-rallied to fight off a two-pronged stretch attack. Trainer Mike Stidham has been working this Tapit homebred in blinkers in preparation for the Louisiana Derby, with an eye on improving upon two runner-up efforts in which Proxy didn't always seem fully engaged. This colt's older sister, Micheline (Bernardini), another Godolphin homebred trained by Stidham, just won her first graded race on Saturday in the GII Hillsborough S. at Tampa. She had started her career 1-for-4, but after Stidham added blinkers late in her 2-year-old season, Micheline blossomed into a much-improved 4-for-9 streak, with three of those wins in grass stakes, plus a near-miss second against Grade I company at Keeneland. If the addition of blinkers has the same effect on little bro Proxy, look out.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-1-3, $261,420.
Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13.
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 26.

Midnight Bourbon resurfaces within the Top 12 after getting leap-frogged the last several weeks. The more I look at him, the more I now agree with trainer Steve Asmussen that he could be setting up nicely for a rebound race. When this $525,000 KEESEP colt wired the Lecomte S., he set a moderate, unchallenged pace and won with plenty in the tank, earning a Beyer that subsequently got revised upward from a 91 to a 93. When third next out in the Risen Star S., Midnight Bourbon twice led between calls (midway on the far turn and again at the eighth pole), then galloped out longer and stronger than the top two finishers. The imposingly long 1,346-foot stretch at Fair Grounds is often thought of as an advantage to closers. Yet the last three Louisiana Derbies have been won by speed-centric horses, including a wire job in last year's renewal, which was the first at the race's newly elongated distance of 1 3/16 miles. A son of Tiznow just now getting tight in his third start off the layoff for a trainer who has won this race three times? Sounds like a mild upset in the making.

8) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

With eight starts under his belt, Spielberg is not your typical million-dollar yearling (KEESEP) that trainer Bob Baffert might nudge along the Derby trail with only a handful of well-spaced starts. After running second and third as a maiden against Grade I stakes company last September (favored in one of those races), this Union Rags colt is being given every opportunity to prove he belongs as a late bloomer at age three. His two wins were in a Del Mar MSW at a mile by a neck (in which the jock lost the whip) and in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose (when Spielberg was all out to reel in a 33-1 maiden). But the best race on his resume is his most recent effort, a second-place try in the Southwest S. behind champ Essential Quality. Racing in the slop for the first time, Spielberg was unprepared and ducked out at the break, then ran along well late to earn a credible second (despite no real chance to catch the winner because of how far behind he put himself at the start). Considering his sire won the 1 1/2-mile GI Belmont S., longer distances could be his launch pad.

9) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

This son of Curlin has the distinction of beating the current No. 1 kingpin on this list in an Aqueduct MSW back in November. But while Greatest Honour then went on a three-race win tear to vault him into the No. 1 spot, Known Agenda stalled for two starts before righting himself with a rip-roaring 11-length, blinkers-on win in a nine-furlong allowance-optional claimer at Gulfstream Feb. 26. Perhaps this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG didn't care for the sealed and sloppy track when he got bumped off stride at the start of the GII Remsen S., and his 3-2 favored loss when fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. might just be a case of not liking the sandy (and often quirky) Tampa track. But this chestnut attacked with metronomic precision after stalking a three-way duel in his Gulfstream comeback, unleashing a confident far-turn move before pouring it on in deep stretch. With two wins already at 1 1/8 miles, trainer Todd Pletcher is now considering the Florida Derby. But in addition to blinkers, Known Agenda also got a dose of Lasix for the first time in that allowance win, and he'll have to forego that medication in the Florida Derby as per new phase-out rules that now prohibit Lasix in the nation's top stakes.

10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc & Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY);
T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $287,763. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 6.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Not everything has gone as planned in trainer Mark Casse's preparations for Helium. Yet now this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop colt by Ironicus is 3-for-3 after a 15-1 win in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (84 Beyer). After starting his career at Woodbine, a planned November stakes race there got cancelled. Casse then shipped Helium to Fair Grounds to try the Derby preps there, but Casse told DRF.com last week that the colt wrenched an ankle, so he sent him to his farm in Ocala. As Helium progressed, the Tampa Derby looked convenient from both a timing and close-to-home perspective. And now, for the fourth year in a row, that stakes has been won by a long shot. Helium was four wide while unhurried into the club turn, stalked midpack about six paths off the rail down the backstretch, then emerged from a far-turn logjam to get first run on a caving pacemaker. He had enough left to fight back when hooked in deep stretch by a fresh closer who had outside momentum, and deftly repulsed that bid. Although Helium is not currently a Triple Crown nominee, D J Stable racing manager Jon Green told TDN right after the win that this colt will be supplemented for $6,000 by the March deadline.

11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking, who just celebrated his third birthdate Mar. 7, is the only Top 12 horse currently wintering in New York. This $240,000 KEESEP Medaglia d'Oro colt also stands out as the rare Derby contender (along with Known Agenda) to boast two wins already at nine furlongs—a crucial distance that many Derby aspirants have yet to even attempt. His 89-Beyer Withers win was the result of a comfortable midpack stalking trip followed by a powerful move to collar a fading leader, and it gave the impression of more in the tank. Trainer Chad Brown has indicated he'll opt for two months between starts and aim for the GII Wood Memorial S. so he can keep Risk Taking at the distance and track over which the colt is 2-for-2.

12) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Allowance/optional claimer, GP, Mar. 11.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence will see action in Thursday's eighth race at Gulfstream, an allowance-optional claimer at a one-turn mile. He's a touch under the gun timing-wise after missing some February training because of a brief fever, but the plan for this Godolphin homebred still leaves room for a required start in a qualifying points stakes prep to try and garner entry into the Derby. This son of Medaglia d'Oro soared home by 8 1/2 lengths his Jan. 23 debut. That seven-furlong MSW appeared very deep on paper at the time, but six horses have now run back out of that race and only one was a next-out winner.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): This 2-for-2 Gary and Mary West homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' is on trainer Baffert's traveling team, shipping to Oaklawn for Saturday's Rebel S.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): One-run closer is a bit farther off the Derby radar than most, but this colt was the only one gaining in the stretch of the Davis, then mounted the only serious stretch challenge in the Tampa Derby after running off in the pre-race warmups.

Keepmeinmind (Laoban): Prepping for the Rebel S., jockey David Cohen said this late-running colt's most recent work featured a “nice, long gallop out, with nothing too rapid. I was very happy with the way he broke off. He has a tendency to get real tough. He did it really relaxed.”

Medina Spirit (Protonico): Baffert-trained overachiever, who hammered for just $1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 at OBSOPN, was second behind stablemate Life Is Good on Saturday but is clearly not in the same league. “He's a good horse and we needed to run first or second to continue on” with Derby preps, Baffert said, adding that the Santa Anita Derby of GI Arkansas Derby are possibilities.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): This 46-1 upsetter of the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. racked up a big-league 95 Beyer. He's not Triple Crown nominated, but trainer Jimmy Jerkens said he will likely be supplemented for $6,000. No next-race commitment yet.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

TDN Derby Top 12 for February 17

The weather-related rescheduling of Oaklawn's GIII Southwest S. to the final weekend in February will cause some havoc for downstream prep races. The GII Rebel S. on Mar. 13 will now have only a two-week spacing within the Oaklawn series and Southwest participants who figured to run back in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby also might balk at having just three weeks off between preps and then six weeks until the GI Kentucky Derby itself. But our sport has gotten quite used to unexpected schedule switches over the last year, so the caravan will roll on with everyone making the necessary adjustments. Now let's dive into the rankings:

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

We've waited 3 1/2 months, so another small extended layoff will only add to the anticipation for the Southwest S. showdown between GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Essential Quality and Jackie's Warrior, the fourth-place 9-10 fave in that race. This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' by Tapit won back-to-back Grade I routes over Keeneland's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration last autumn. His GI Breeders' Futurity S. win was a confident display of professional pace pressing, and this gray Godolphin homebred's late-closing Juvenile score earned the top two-turn Beyer Speed Figure (95) by any 2-year-old in 2020. Has any Kentucky Derby winner ever broken his maiden on the previous year's Derby undercard? I doubt it but could not ascertain that's never happened (input welcomed from readers with deeper historical resources). Yet the pandemic-delayed Derby of 2020 could produce that very scenario, as Essential Quality broke his maiden on the Sept. 5 undercard of the rescheduled Run for the Roses. Another bit of trivia: Did you know that 30 consecutive grays have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home first at 50-1 in 2005?

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Among the current Top 12 contenders, the trait that sets apart 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is his demonstrated ability over four lifetime races to fluidly reach a high cruising speed and to carry it comfortably up to a mile. He stalked and withstood serious pace pressure in two well-stocked MSW sprints over seven furlongs in New York to start his learning curve. Then he broke out with a 9 1/2-length maiden score in a one-turn Churchill mile (83 Beyer) after carving out demanding splits of :22.38 and :44.59. Caddo River cudgeled the Smarty Jones S. crew by 10 1/4 lengths on opening day at Oaklawn (92 Beyer), and trainer Brad Cox said last Thursday this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable remains on track for the GII Rebel S. “Probably going to miss a work [because of the spate of unseasonable icy weather in Hot Springs]. But his race is not until, really, the middle of next month, so I don't feel like we're in any trouble as far as missing a race or anything.”

3) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-2, $175,240.
Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27 or GI Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Greatest Honour was back on the Payson Park work tab Saturday, two weeks after his smashing late run in the GIII Holy Bull S. stamped him as the horse to beat in the Florida preps. In an under-wraps maintenance breeze for both sophomores, trainer Shug McGaughey worked him to the inside of the 2-for-3 Creed (Honor Code), and both were credited with the same :50.60 (29/58) half-mile clocking even though Creed pulsed ahead by a neck at the wire. This Courtlandt Farms homebred by Tapit isn't light on experience. He has five lifetime races (including two at 1 1/16 miles and a MSW at nine furlongs) and has never been out of the money, so there's no big push to get him ready for the Feb. 27 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. if the Mar. 27 GI Florida Derby ends up being a better fit, timing-wise. One shining aspect of Greatest Honour's past-performance cut is that twice now as a 3-year-old he's won closing from well off the tailgate at 1 1/16 miles, which at Gulfstream is configuration that usually plays to the advantage of early speed because the start is close to the turn and the finish is at the sixteenth pole.

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good retained his 7-1 favored status among the 23 individually ranked horses in Derby Future Wager Pool 3 that closed on Sunday (the “all others” field was 3-1). The West Coast's top-ranked Triple Crown threat breezed five furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:00.80 (4/33) Monday in preparation for a scheduled start in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. Trainer Bob Baffert had noted after a bullet move the previous week that this $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is “starting to mature and fill out; he just floats over the ground.” The winning prep sequence of the GIII Sham S. and San Felipe is the same blueprint Baffert used last spring to get Authentic ready for the Kentucky Derby. But, of course, Authentic's non-traditional path to the Derby winner's circle also included the benefit of four additional months of seasoning because the pandemic rescheduled the Derby from May to September. Baffert has said that, like Authentic at this stage of his career, Life Is Good needs to relax and learn to leverage his main weapon (raw speed) in a manner that will be effective over 10 furlongs. Can this colt manage to figure that out before the first Saturday in May? A schedule that includes the San Felipe and (presumably) just one nine-furlong Grade I (Apr. 3 Santa Anita Derby or Apr. 10 Arkansas Derby) leaves little room for error.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by
A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

The Essential Quality-Jackie's Warrior rematch will be the closest thing we've had to a real rivalry so far this season. Yes, they've only met once previously, but that Breeders' Cup clash amounted to the season championship and neither has raced since, so the Southwest S. takes on more gravitas. I'm prognosticating an edge to “Jackie” over the speed-leaning Oaklawn surface at 1 1/16 miles, but longer distances later could swing the advantage in “EQ's” direction. How have horses from last year's Juvenile fared in their next races? So far eight have started, but only Keepmeinmind (Laoban) and Rombauer (Twirling Candy) were next-out winners; both ran Beyers lower than what they had earned in the Juvenile. In fact, six of the eight Juvenile run-backs failed to increase their Beyers the next time they started, which is not a promising sign of that race's strength. This $95,000 KEESEP colt was 4-for-4 in one-turn races at age two, and his immediate pedigree is a fascinating study in length-of-career contrasts: Sire Maclean's Music (like Jackie, also trained by Steve Asmussen) wired a Santa Anita sprint in his debut by 7 1/4 lengths. He earned a 114 Beyer—the highest debut Beyer ever—yet never raced again after being retired over complications related to a fractured splint bone. Dam Unicorn Girl, conversely, was a robust starter-allowance stalwart who raced 54 times with a 19-7-8 record over seven seasons on the mid-Atlantic circuit.

6) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Possible for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) has been identified as a likely next-race target for 'Wowza!' maiden-breaker Prevalence, but trainer Brendan Walsh also noted the Godolphin homebred's team could call an audible and instead opt for a nine-furlong allowance/optional claimer two days earlier at Gulfstream as Plan B. This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' won his Jan. 23 debut by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after sparring through a five-way fight for the lead in a “loaded” seven-furlong MSW (beating Justify's half-brother and a $1.05 million KEESEP buy). “I thought he was a good horse before he ran, but did I expect him to do what he did? Absolutely not, especially one of mine first time out,” Walsh said. “They generally improve, so I would like to think that this guy has some improvement in him. We won't get too carried away. We'll move on to the next one, and he'll be given plenty of chances to prove himself as we go forward … If we go to the FOY or the allowance race, he'll probably [work] Friday or Saturday and that should set him up right.”

7) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

Mandaloun was facing a make-or-break point in his Derby campaign Saturday when favored to win the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox had said pre-race he was not wild about running back so soon off a subpar showing in the Jan. 16 GIII Lecomte S., but he felt the need to “push him along a little more.” Cox then equipped this Into Mischief-sired Juddmonte homebred with a one-inch blinker cup for the first time and the result was not only a 1 1/4-length victory but a nine-point jump in Mandaloun's career-best Beyer to a 98. Mandaloun was three wide on both turns while stalking in third, and he wore down two duelers and the running-in-spots closer Proxy (Tapit) to register a workmanlike victory. “He's always been a little funny down the lane,” said jockey Florent Geroux, citing the blinkers as a help. “He's never given me his full potential. We had the same kind of trip we had in the Lecomte, but when I pushed on the gas, he responded right away. Last time I feel like he wasn't giving me his best. He was a little more focused.” Cox said post-race the GII Louisiana Derby “is definitely going to be in play.”

8) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

It's difficult to get a true read on the one-two performances by Mandaloun and Proxy in the Risen Star S. because of the drying-out nature of the Fair Grounds track on Saturday. Quick times and big winning margins dominated speed-favoring races early in the day, but the track appeared to slow down and play more evenly to horses rating from farther back by the time the stakes races rolled around (overall there were five dirt wire winners, two pace pressers, two stalkers, and two closers). Proxy was a midpack fourth at the rail for most of his trip under new rider John Velazquez, then seemed to lose steam when nudged along seven-sixteenths out. But the colt sparked back to interest when Johnny V. swung him widest for the drive, and although this Tapit homebred for Godolphin only ran along in spots down the lane, he continued his four-race trend of upping his Beyer number every time out, clocking in with a career-top 97. “He's inching in the right direction,” said trainer Michael Stidham.

9) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

If current prep-race schedules hold (and they seem to change every few days lately thanks to Mother Nature), this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt figures to be the last horse among the Top 12 to debut at age three if he goes in the GIII Gotham S. Mar. 6. Highly Motivated hasn't raced since winning the Nyquist S. on the Breeders' Cup undercard on Nov. 6, meaning he'll have a 121-day gap between starts. He set a track record for 6 1/2 furlongs in what later turned out to be a key race (three next-out winners), but that “record” designation has to be considered in the context of five other Keeneland main-track records also being established on a speed-centric surface; plus Keeneland's small sample of main-track records only dates to the autumn of 2014, when synthetic got changed back to dirt. Assuming Highly Motivated runs well enough in his next prep to remain on the Derby trail, he's still going to be challenged by having only one (likely) true route race under his belt by the time May 1 arrives, because the Gotham is a one-turn mile.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

As the least expensive Top 12 candidate ($1,000 OBSWIN, $35,000 OBSOPN), this Protonico colt out of a Brilliant Speed mare has earned underdog rooting status for the tenacious way he took pressure on the lead through swift fractions in the GIII Lewis S., then never let another horse get by him in a three-way, length-of-stretch fight that had him a neck in front at the wire. Private clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young, who purchased the Florida-bred for owner Amr Zedan, told the Santa Anita notes team that Medina Sprit “was OK, but he wasn't going to be the sales topper or anything … He had worked three-eighths in :33 flat which was decent time, but he had a nice rhythm and a stride like a route horse.” Young added that prior to the colt's debut win at Los Alamitos in December, he was “outworking more expensive and better-bred horses and definitely holding his own.” Young said Medina Spirit's connections are still mulling whether to plot a one- or two-prep race plan to get to the Derby, but he also emphasized that the colt is likely more effective chasing a target (like in his Sham S. second behind Life Is Good) rather than setting the pace like he did in the Lewis.

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind was entered but scratched out of the Risen Star S. three days prior to last Saturday's Fair Grounds race, but trainer Robertino Diodoro's desire to “run him out of his own stall” at Oaklawn has yet to come to fruition because the date of the Southwest has now been moved three times. This is an off-the-pace specialist (and a grandson of stay-all-day Victory Gallop) who might not fire his best shot going 1 1/16 miles over a speed-friendly surface like Oaklawn's, but he bears watching for the day down the road when he can more comfortably uncoil over a longer distance–ideally with several early-pace types setting up the fractions to his advantage.

12) CANDY MAN ROCKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Kenny Lane, by Forestry)
O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc; B-R S Evans (KY). T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $144,824.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Candy Man Rocket's 85-Beyer win in the GIII Davis S. Feb. 6 represented a decent step up for a colt who had just broken his maiden in start number two and had never faced winners nor raced around two turns. But the fact that he's trained by the very patient but realistic Bill Mott is what truly edges him into this week's Top 12, because Mott doesn't bother with the Derby trail if he doesn't believe his horses truly belong. This colt RNA'd for $190,000 (KEENOV) and $70,000 (KEESEP) prior to hammering for $250,000 (OBSAPR), and his connections acknowledged in a detailed TDN profile last week that Candy Man Rocket still needed seasoning when he debuted seventh at Churchill Nov. 22. But this colt sure was ready for prime time in start number two, a 9 1/4-length Gulfstream blowout, and in the Davis he got first run at a pacemaker who set legit splits. Mott said the GII Tampa Bay Derby is a possibility, although owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native and has indicated he wouldn't mind seeing his top soph race at Oaklawn.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): 'TDN Rising Star' scored a 94-Beyer stalking win in the GII San Vicente, but this 2-5 fave had a bit more tussle than expected getting by stablemate Freedom Fighter (Violence) in the stretch.

Dream Shake (Twirling Candy): You don't see too many 20-1 winning firsters earning 'TDN Rising Star' status. Big confident march past leaders in 96 Beyer Santa Anita romp. But that race did feature a hot 3-5 firster who never fired, so the quality of that field is in question until we see more from this intriguing prospect.

Fire At Will (Declaration of War): GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf victor will make 2021 debut on dirt in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. “He won on [the main track] at Saratoga, even though it was muddy and against a short field,” trainer Mike Maker said.

Freedom Fighter (Violence): Ran a better race than winning 2-5 stablemate Concert Tour when second in the San Vicente S Feb. 6. Fast from gate, took pace heat, wouldn't quit in stretch. Gotham S. at Aqueduct likely next.

Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow): Slips out of the Top 12 after so-so third in Risen Star. Trainer Steve Asmussen, however, believes third time off layoff will be the charm for this $525,000 KEESEP colt in the Louisiana Derby.

Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro): Advanced when ready off a comfortable midpack stalk to reel in tiring pacemaker in 89-Beyer GIII Withers over nine furlongs.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for February 17 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12

Next-race plans are starting to solidify for some of the contenders among the Top 12, including a possible No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup at Oaklawn in February. Farther down the list, Nos. 5 and 9 will clash this Saturday in the GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit—Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

The connections of 3-for-3 ‘TDN Rising Star’ Essential Quality are mapping out a campaign for the presumptive divisional champ that could end up with the high-energy gray prepping in the GII Louisiana Derby prior to taking aim at the GI Kentucky Derby. But the first race of this Tapit colt’s sophomore season is still a moving target. After winning the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, “we didn’t give him time off but we backed off on him and he seems to have responded well,” trainer Brad Cox said. “He was really good [in his early January training] and we just need to keep him that way until the middle of February.” Cox said the nine-furlong GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds is “on the table,” as is the 1 1/16 miles GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. “The one thing about the Fair Grounds race is it’s a lot more [Derby qualifying] points, so that makes it a little more attractive. But the distance is the question; do we want to go a mile and an eighth off not having a race in three months?” Cox added that even if the Godolphin homebred does ship from New Orleans to race at Hot Springs, “I’m 99% sure that he would go back to Fair Grounds, and the Louisiana Derby would be in play after that.”

2) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d’Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Likeable, a $350,000 KEESEP colt, owns a dazzling 8 1/2-length MSW score at Belmont last September sandwiched by a much-better-than-it-looks runner-up debut at Saratoga and a “too fast to last” effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If trainer Todd Pletcher can hone this colt’s sharp, natural gate speed into a more efficient version of what we saw from Likeable at age two, look out. Dam Dashing Debby (Medaglia d’Oro) won her debut sprinting by 10 1/4 lengths in a Calder stake back in 2009 and was acquired shortly thereafter by Stonestreet Stables, right on the heels of another Medaglia d’Oro filly acquired by Stonestreet–eventual champ Rachel Alexandra. Since then, Dashing Debby has produced two black-type winners–one sprinting on dirt and the other around two turns on grass–plus a yearling colt by Speightstown who hammered for $800,000 at the 2020 KEESEP sale. Likeable’s MGISW sire Frosted figures to add depth and bottom to the pedigree equation, and this colt is now breezing up to five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs in prep for his sophomore unveiling.

3) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $900,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Last Start: 1st Msw, GP, Dec. 12
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The most authoritative maiden win among the Top 12? That would belong to Prime Factor, a $900,000 KEESEP Quality Road colt who ran roughshod over what looked like a pretty decent crew Dec. 12 at Gulfstream, earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ distinction. This Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to bowl home by 8 3/4 lengths in a 1:10.38 clocking (85 Beyer) that went .08 seconds faster than the only other six-furlong race on the card, the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for older female sprinters. The fourth-place finisher from that race, Broadway (Quality Road), a $500,000 FTSAUG buy, won a Tampa MSW route race this past Friday at 4-5 odds, while the second- and third-place runners both came back to run third in their respective races Saturday at Gulfstream. Longer distances appear to be Prime Factor’s sweet spot based on his pedigree. He’s out of a Bernardini mare, and second dam Dance Swiftly is a full-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year and U.S. Eclipse Award winner Dance Smartly, winner of the 1991 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4) JACKIE’S WARRIOR (c, Maclean’s Music—Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

With blowout speed and an aura of being in a different league than his overmatched foes, Jackie’s Warrior dominated the division last summer through early autumn. This $95,000 KEESEP Maclean’s Music colt appeared primed to pounce in the Breeders’ Cup, yet even though he carved out a no-excuse stalking trip behind the Juvenile’s fastest opening quarter since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003 and got first run at the wilting leaders a quarter mile from the short-stretch finish, “Jackie” couldn’t sustain his bid in deep stretch. He’s now two breezes into his return, but even though he’s based at Fair Grounds, trainer Steve Asmussen told the Blood-Horse last week that the Oaklawn preps might be this colt’s path to Louisville, based on the lucrative purses, qualifying points, and “pace being as effective as it is at Oaklawn.” The connections of No. 1-ranked Essential Quality are also considering the Feb. 15 Southwest S. for that colt’s 2021 debut, potentially setting up an early season showdown of two of the division’s heaviest hitters.

5) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,700.
Last Start: 1st Alw, FG, Dec. 19
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Proxy should be a pace component in Saturday’s GIII Lecomte S., and this Tapit homebred for Godolphin has the unique advantage of already having won twice around two turns at this Fair Grounds meet. Even though his Dec. 19 N2L allowance win came only against three other rivals and earned a so-so 76 Beyer, Proxy was tag-team pressured by every horse in the race at some point and appeared emboldened when mixing it up in close quarters in his stretch fight. Jockey Angel Suarez recently suffered a broken femur, so he’s off Proxy in favor of Mitchell Murrill, whose only lifetime graded stakes victory was at this distance over this track. Proxy will also be going back off Lasix (he raced on Lasix for both of his Fair Grounds wins, but not in his runner-up Monmouth debut in October, in which he was beaten only by a neck). “He’s like a big, immature kid who is still learning with racing,” trainer Michael Stidham said. “Last time when he won, he was a little green about switching leads coming down the lane, but once he leveled off, he drew away at the end, so we were pleased with that.”

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief– Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., Jan. 2, Santa Anita
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 GII Sham S. in wire-to-wire fashion, ticking the two-turn box on his progression checklist. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Into Mischief earned a 101 Beyer for clocking a mile in 1:36.63, pulsing around the track largely unopposed though quarter-mile splits of :23.56, :23.11, :23.99 and :25.97. The 1-5 fave broke inward at the start and bumped mildly with a rival, then cleared the field from the outermost five hole while giving up four paths of real estate on the turn, bounding along by his lonesome onto the backstretch. Life Is Good remained hand-ridden until deep stretch when 9-1 stablemate Medina Spirit (Protonico) closed the gap while under a vigorous drive, and Life Is Good drifted out while asked for a more by Mike Smith, who showed (but did not utilize) the whip. “I always tell Mike to try and save something,” Baffert said post-race. “Life Is Good wasn’t as tired as I thought he could have been. He needs to learn to relax a little bit better, but he will.” Look for him in about two months, most likely in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita.

7) SPEAKER’S CORNER (c, Street Sense–Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-William Mott. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $43,290.
Last Start: 1st Mdn, Belmont, Oct. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Speaker’s Corner, a Godolphin homebred by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare (same cross as Godolphin’s highly-rated Maxfield) competed in two of the stronger MSWs at Saratoga and Belmont last season. This colt’s debut on closing day at the Spa was a green third, but both Speaker’s Corner and the runner-up came back to win. And this colt’s maiden-breaking tally despite minor trip trouble over seven furlongs at Belmont also has the makings of a key race, featuring sharp splits and a reeling in of a next-out winner–Caddo River (Hard Spun)–who earned ‘TDN Rising Star’ status upon his own graduation (the eighth-place finisher from that MSW also came back to win). With a sire who won the 2007 Derby and a second dam who scored in the 2006 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the colt’s pedigree has a longer-the-better-slant.

8) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wlg ’18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Every year there’s an undercard 2-year-old winner from Breeders’ Cup weekend whose buzz carries over, and this season Highly Motivated qualifies as that colt. This Into Mischief bay won the Nyquist S. to run his record to 2-for-3 (all sprints), and three rivals who finished behind him have since come back to win. Klaravich Stable bred Highly Motivated after racing his Chad Brown-trained dam, the seven-furlong black-type stakes winner Strong Incentive. But this colt went through the auction ring for $240,000 at KEENOV because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling. Authentic’s decisive wins in the Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic last season certainly helped to answer questions about the ability for Into Mischief’s progeny to carry speed up to 10 furlongs. But this colt’s dam-sire, Warrior’s Reward, made his mark as a sprinter, registering his lone stakes win at seven furlongs in the 2010 GI Carter H.

9) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 1st Alw, CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Mandaloun will start favored in Saturday’s Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. That will be the route debut for this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare. “We’ve always felt he was cut out to be a two-turn horse based on his physical makeup and how he trains,” trainer Brad Cox said. “It shows how much talent he’s got to be able to win his first two races at sprint distances, and now we’re going to do what we’ve thought he’s wanted to do all along, and that’s go long.” Mandaloun drew post 10 with no shortage of speed to his inside, which could end up being a tactical advantage if he seeks a stalking trip like in his previous two wins. Mandaloun needed (and responded to) a rousing ride from the five-sixteenths pole home in his 82-Beyer Churchill allowance score.

10) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $76,092.
Last Start: 1st Msw, CD, Nov. 15
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Cox confirmed Thursday that ‘TDN Rising Star’ Caddo River will make his debut at two turns in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones S., the track’s Jan. 22 opening-day feature. This Hard Spun colt demonstrated ability to withstand serious pace pressure while forcing the issue on or near the lead against top-notch maiden fields at Saratoga and Belmont prior to punching through in a Churchill MSW that he commandeered by 9 1/2 lengths. Even though Caddo River has already won at the eight-furlong distance of the Smarty Jones, he’ll have to adapt from the one-turn mile configuration that he relished at Churchill to a short-stretch finish around two bends at Oaklawn, where mile races start and end at the sixteenth pole. Well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the last three editions of the Smarty Jones–but none of them went on to make an impact on the Derby trail. Caddo River’s speed should stand him in good stead at Oaklawn. But he’s a rangy, leggy colt, and short-stretch route races are often won by horses built more like compact cruisers (taller, lankier striders don’t have that extra sixteenth in the straight to fully uncoil).

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban—Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, 3rd GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind worked a half-mile in :50.20 Wednesday at Oaklawn (39/94) under regular rider David Cohen, his first breeze since rallying from last to win the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a maiden Nov. 28. “Very easy half, with a nice long gallop out,” Cohen said post-work. “He seemed to have matured since his last race.” Breaking a maiden in a stakes must run in the family: His sire, Laoban, wired the 2016 GII Jim Dandy S. at 27-1 odds for his only career win. Prior to his first career victory, Keepmeinmind ran second then third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in the GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only 5 1/4 combined lengths. You’ve heard that stat about the 36 winners of the Juvenile scoring in only two Kentucky Derbies? Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don’t fare any better. Those 72 placings have accounted for only one Derby win, with Spend A Buck (third in the inaugural Juvenile back in 1984) the lone exception.

12) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. B-Heider Family Stables LLC (Ky). T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 yrl ’19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-0-0, $142,739.
Last Start: 5th GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S.
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

With a foaling date of Jan. 12, King Fury is the only member of the Top 12 to reach his actual third birthdate. This $950,000 FTSAUG yearling by Curlin is a smooth mover with an ample (five races at 1 1/16 miles) foundation of two-turn experience. His form, on paper at least, lost a bit of shine with off-the-board finishes in the Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club S. But he had minor trip trouble when wheeling back into the Breeders’ Cup on just 12 days between starts and his blinkers-on experiment as a frontrunner under the lights Nov. 28 might have been a tactical aberration. Still plenty of upside here, and a 2-for-3 record at Churchill won’t hurt as the first Saturday in May comes more clearly into focus.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong): This 5,000 OBSAPR gelding upset the GII Remsen S. over nine furlongs and will aim for repeat at same distance in the Feb 6 GIII Withers S.

Capo Kane (Street Sense): Speed in hand to top of stretch then responded when roused (although a touch green) in his 84-Beyer Jerome S. score. Now aims for Withers S.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) pointed toward GIII Lewis S. Jan. 30 off 94-1 second behind Essential Quality in the Juvenile.

Manor House (Upstart): Saturday’s Lecomte is glutted with speed, but this colt’s debut wiring of a Laurel MSW by 12 ¼ lengths still stands out in the past performances (76 Beyer; fourth-place horse from that race came back to win). This colt is cross-entered in a 1x/optional claimer earlier on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card and could opt for that spot instead.

Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief): Rallied from long way last to win GII Bourbon S. on turf, then no-impact 10th in GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Change of surface and tactics when winning the Jan. 2 Mucho Macho Man S. earns this colt another likely stakes date on dirt.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post