TDN Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Derby Top 12: Dreams of Roses Take the Chill out of January

We're inside the 120-day mark for the 150th GI Kentucky Derby, and the pecking order is hazily taking shape. There's a speculative, forward-thinking element (read: lots of guesswork) built into the equation, with the goal of projecting how these still-developing horses will blossom over the next four months. Get tied on and enjoy the ride.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $96,600. Last start: WON Nov. 19 GIII Bob Hope S.

Nysos has won two West Coast sprints with devastating ease by a combined 19 1/4 lengths while pairing Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97, earning 'TDN Rising Star' accolades, and giving off the impression he has the mental makeup and physical prowess to handle tougher competition at longer distances.

This Nyquist colt out of a Bernardini mare went through the auction ring three times ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) before debuting over six furlongs Oct. 21 at Santa Anita. Seeing a Bob Baffert trainee win at first asking by 10 1/2 lengths isn't exactly a shocker, but not too many colts from that barn run up the score by such a gaudy margin while going off at 6-1 in the betting.

Start number two was the seven-eighths GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar Nov. 19, and that four-horse race ended up being more or less a schooling session for 2-5 fave Nysos, who, racing with blinkers off, broke alertly and settled in last while always in touch with the leaders behind brisk splits. His sustained move enabled him to power past overmatched rivals while well in hand and never being asked for maximum effort, scoring by 8 3/4 lengths.

Nysos has since recorded four regularly spaced workouts at Santa Anita and seems certain to next surface in a two-turn stakes, perhaps the Jan. 27 GIII Southwest S. over 1 1/16 miles or the Feb. 3 GIII Lewis S. at a mile.

For the third straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert related to Medina Spirit's drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. However, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on where Baffert's horses fit in the overall Derby picture and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $1,102,750. Last start: WON Nov. 4 GI FanDuel Breeders Cup Juvenile.

A two-prep path to Louisville–the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. and Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby–is trainer Todd Pletcher's plan for GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor and likely 2-year-old champ Fierceness.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and Repole Stable homebred by City of Light powered home by 11 1/4 lengths (95 Beyer) as the 11-10 winner of his debut sprint at Saratoga over a sealed, muddy track. That wet-track fondness didn't carry over to the sloppy

GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct, when the odds-on Fierceness lunged and got bumped at the break, loomed boldly with a four-wide move, then splashed home punchless in the stretch.

Off that seventh-place drubbing, the betting public abandoned Fierceness at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup. He responded by trouncing the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

This colt checked a lot of boxes that day by showing speed in hand from the gate, a willingness to latch onto a pacemaker, good responsiveness to cues to quicken, and an ability to ratchet into a higher gear without appearing fully torqued before galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Fierceness only had to repel one single bid in upper stretch before cruising home in the Juvenile, a race in which the top three betting choices all failed to fire without obvious excuse. The fizzling of the faves might have indicated that the race wasn't that deep. But now, two months in the rear-view mirror, the Juvenile looks like it could be shaping into a key race, with its strength on paper solidifying after two of the four horses to run back won stakes in their next-out starts.

Fierceness | Benoit

The biggest hurdle for Fierceness might end up being historical: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016). Even some of the most electrifying 2-year-olds who excelled over 1 1/16 miles on the first Saturday of November have had trouble outrunning that daunting metric going 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

3) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

Muth (Good Magic) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' June 18 when he uncorked an 8 3/4-length debut win. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., trainer Bob Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by picking the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. at seven furlongs for Muth's first start at three.

This $190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR colt earned a no-nonsense win by assertively stalking two pacemakers and breaking away at will to earn a 91 Beyer in the San Vicente, meaning Muth has now run at least a 90 Beyer in all five lifetime races.

“This horse has a lot of class. He's learning a lot,” said jockey Juan Hernandez, who has been aboard Muth for all three wins and two seconds. “I think he finally learned to run by himself because he broke really quick, and he saw the other two horses in front of me and he just relaxed really well behind them.”

Muth ran second behind Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. He enjoyed a primo stalking trip over his home track, and seemed poised to take off in tandem with that rival on the far turn. But by the quarter pole Muth was already being driven hard, and he had no response to match Fierceness's full-flight winning move.

Fierceness holds the head-to-head edge. But Muth owns the broader body of work, and I wouldn't bet against him the next time he hooks up with Fierceness.

Given that these two colts are based on opposite coasts, that rematch is unlikely to happen until the Kentucky Derby itself.

4) BORN NOBLE (c, Constitution–Zapperkat, by Ghostzapper) 'TDN Rising Star' O-St Elias Stable & West Point Thoroughbreds; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $725,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $36,000. Last start: WON Dec. 30 Gulfstream MdSpWt.

Bet to 13-10 favoritism first time out going seven furlongs at Gulfstream, Born Noble (Constitution) immediately put himself into the race, pressing the pacemaking second-fave from the outside.

Irad Ortiz Jr. nudged this $725,000 KEESEP colt forward, got on even terms with the leader through the turn, and by the quarter pole forced his foe into submission while still being hand-ridden.

But once alone on the lead and set down for the drive, Born Noble came unglued, veering sharply inward despite left-handed stick work and a right-handed yank of the reins. He remained on his left lead until just prior to the sixteenth pole, but Ortiz's rousing did spark a noticeable uptick in acceleration through mid-stretch before Born Noble got geared down while 5 1/2 lengths clear under the wire.

The post-race focus might be on this firster's obvious greenness. But a glimmer of gravitas also shone through, and in the long view, Born Noble's zig-zagging antics didn't resonate as anything that can't be smoothed out with experience.

He earned 'TDN Rising Star' status and a 93 Beyer–although precise figure-making can get tricky on a day like Dec. 30, when a “good” Gulfstream surface was drying out to “fast” and there were only three total dirt races (all at different distances) for comparison on the card.

5) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), the FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper, in some ways ran a better race than winner Dornoch (Good Magic) when on the losing end of a nose photo in the nine-furlong GII Remsen S. Dec. 2.

That's because this Chad Brown trainee built up serious back-of-the-pack momentum when rallying from last over a sealed, muddy track. His big, sweeping, seven-wide move was notable on a day when speed was so dominant in 10 races at Aqueduct that five winners wired their fields and the remaining five were either right up on the pace or re-rallied after losing their leads.

Sierra Leone sling-shotted to the lead but lugged in once it looked like he'd blow past Dornoch, who resiliently clawed back command while pinned near the inside rail. The two co-earned 91 Beyers.

Sierra Leone | Coglianese

It was a costly lack of late-race focus in terms of the race outcome, but still, it's the type of lapse you'd rather see in December than in the spring. It was only Sierra Leone's second lifetime start, and two turns against stakes company is never a slam-dunk for a first try off a debut maiden win, even one that stamped him as a 'TDN Rising Star'.

Brown told DRF.com post-win that Sierra Leone reminds him a bit of Early Voting, another Gun Runner colt he trained to a win in the 2022 GI Preakness S.

“Now that he's lugged in [twice], I'll fool around with a little equipment to straighten him out,” Brown told DRF. “He's got a world of ability so we'll take him down [to Florida], regroup a little bit, and map out a campaign that hopefully gets him to the first Saturday in May.”

6) PARCHMENT PARTY (c, Constitution–Life Well Lived, by Tiznow) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-B Flay Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $141,960. Last start: WON Nov. 9 Churchill AOC.

'TDN Rising Star' Parchment Party, a large-framed June 5 foal, rallied stoutly up the rail from last and determinedly churned his way through traffic when winning a two-turn Churchill allowance Nov. 9 with a four-wide sweep. This son of Constitution wasn't fully dialed in and a looked touch unfocused through the final furlong, but he also wasn't even close to scraping bottom effort-wise, either.

The third- and fourth-place horses in that race won allowance and stakes engagements in their next-out starts.

Parchment Party is bred on the same cross that produced Tiz the Law, who won multiple Grade I stakes in 2020 (Travers, Florida Derby, the nine-furlong Belmont S.), plus fellow 'Rising Star' and 2022 GIII Peter Pan S. victor We the People.

A $450,000 KEESEP colt out of trainer Bill Mott's barn, Parchment Party got sent to Payson Park following his 2-for-2 start, but he hasn't had a published workout since Dec. 16.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-1, $165,000. Last start: WON Dec. 23 Gun Runner S.

Track Phantom, a $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road, doesn't leap out as a no-brainer Derby prospect. But the speed-centric winner of the Gun Runner S. does have upside appeal when you read between the lines of his past performances.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has started him four times, twice in one-turn miles and twice at 1 1/16 miles, with a Beyer progression of 74, 81, 88 and 89. Yet one intangible that doesn't come across on paper is how level-headedly Track Phantom has dealt with keyed-up rivals to his inside in both of his two-turn races.

In his Nov. 25 maiden-breaker, he forced the fractions with a rank runner pinned down at the fence from the entrance of the first turn to the start of the second, then repulsed a challenge from the only other horse to draw within a half-length on the turn. Roused for run three-sixteenths out, this colt showed a hint of another gear a furlong from the wire before being wrapped up late.

Facing winners for the first time against stakes company at Fair Grounds, Track Phantom was keen to make the lead from his outside post in the Gun Runner S., but a 36-1 speedster slipped up the open rail. The duo sparred down the backstretch before Track Phantom seized the lead three-eighths out and held off bids from two fresh challengers, including the 1-2 favorite.

“It's impressive that both of his two turn races have been victories,” Asmussen said post-win. “I actually thought they went too fast in the middle [of the Gun Runner]. You know, [a :46.93 half] here in a two-turn race, you don't see horses see it out very often.”

The Jan. 20 GII Lecomte S. is next.

8) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch (Good Magic) figures to be one of the more intriguing story lines as Derby 150 approaches because he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage.

This $325,000 KEESEP colt started off his career for trainer Danny Gargan with a pair of seconds, one in a Saratoga maiden sprint and another in the Sapling S. going a mile at Monmouth. He then wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden field at Keeneland Oct. 14, running up the score by 6 1/2 lengths.

Dornoch (inside) | Sarah Andrew

Dornoch won the Remsen S. at Aqueduct by outsprinting five other rivals for the lead into the first turn over a speed-favoring track. Settling at the fence while pressured by a 27-1 shot, he knocked back bids from a couple of new challengers on the far turn, then fought gamely to surge back in front after seemingly being passed for good by Sierra Leone.

He also brushed the rail in upper stretch, yet somehow overcame that too.

“It's crazy. Usually when a horse hits the rail at the eighth pole like he did, they just stop running altogether,” Gargan said post-win. “I can't believe he re-rallied after that. He did see the other horse and get running back at him, but hitting the rail knocked him off stride and then it took him a few jumps to get back going.”

Gargan mentioned the Mar. 2 GII Fountain of Youth S. over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream as a possible next start, with the Feb. 3 GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct in the mix (which would be a second straight nine-furlong race for Dornoch).

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Catching Freedom (Constitution) broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Churchill, ran a credible fourth behind Parchment Party in a 1 1/16-mile allowance, then annexed the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn with a long, grind-'em-down rally (87 Beyer).

This $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in his stakes debut, sliced between rivals entering the far turn, got second run at a dueling duo, spun widest in the five path, then finished in workmanlike fashion with his head cocked to the grandstand before widening the winning margin to 2 1/2 lengths.

“Very proud of the horse,” trainer Brad Cox said post-win. “I think he's still learning. I think he was a little green there down the lane, but overall showed that he does have a lot of stamina and talent.”

Catching Freedom is a half-brother to Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), a stakes-placed sophomore who raced four times for Cox (different owners) in 2023. That colt had the distinction of posting Beyers of 97, 88, 97 and 96, and in one of those races Bishops Bay was beaten only a head by subsequent Belmont S. and Travers S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate).

10) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

It took four well-spaced starts for this son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) to bust out of the maiden ranks at 2-5 odds at Gulfstream. But he's now won two in a row in Florida after an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Despite winning by a neck, trainer Shug McGuaghey said Change of Command “didn't want to finish as well as I'd like. I've got to do some work to figure things out. I hope this moves him forward. He had to kind of belly down and run, so that should help him. We'll take him back to Payson and find out.”

Change of Command had previously compiled a robust set of company lines while finishing respectably behind well-regarded juveniles in New York.

11) ETHAN ENERGY (c, Uncle Mo–Sass and Class, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $34,250. Last start: Won Dec. 23 FG MdSpWt.

This Fair Grounds maiden-breaker for trainer Brad Cox hit the winner's circle in start number two Dec. 23, adding Lasix. removing blinkers, and stretching to 1 1/16 miles for a 5 1/4-length tally (83 Beyer).

Under a light hold on the outside while midpack behind a tepid tempo, Ethan Energy was encouraged to loop the group on the far turn. This Stonestreet homebred son of Uncle Mo stayed on and opened up under mild rousing through the lane, then got pushed out late under a steady hand ride before being geared down for the final stages.

His debut at Keeneland, in which Ethan Energy was off last and allowed to lag with only mild progress inside, has thus far yielded three next-out maiden winners. One of them, Legalize (Constitution), also won the Sugar Bowl S., which was two races later on the same card as Ethan Energy's maiden score.

12) CARBONE (c, Mitole–Treasure in Heaven, by Street Sense) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-L William & Corinne Heiligbrodt (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $153,000. Last start: WON Dec. 31 OP AOC.

This 'TDN Rising Star's sire, Mitole, was the blitzingly fast 2019 champion male sprinter. But there are enough longer-distance influences in Carbone's pedigree (Giant's Causeway and Seattle Slew up top, Street Sense for a damsire) to think he might stay on as a horse of interest as the prep season progresses.

Carbone has been in front at every call in his 2-for-2 career for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this homebred for William and Corinne Heiligbrodt has paired 85 and 86 Beyers while stretching out from six furlongs to a mile.

In his Oaklawn allowance win, Carbone effortlessly controlled the tempo and really only faced one serious challenge on the far turn, opening up under his own power and toying with that rival whenever he edged closer.

His run into the stretch provided a nice visual, with jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. sitting chilly atop this colt while every other horse in his wake was being driven. Carbone won by four, but it could have been more had the race not finished at the sixteenth pole under Oaklawn's short-stretch configuration for the mile distance.

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Signator Off Derby Trail

'TDN Rising Star' Signator (Tapit), eighth on this week's TDN Derby Top 12, has been taken out of training for 60 days and is off the GI Kentucky Derby trail, according to a tweet from co-owner West Point Thoroughbreds. A winner Oct. 14 at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet, Signator was a $1.7-million purchase at last spring's OBS April sale. His latest setback comes after three breezes following a wrenched ankle in the fall.

Bred by Gainesway Thoroughbreds and trained by Shug McGaughey, Signator is also owned by the partnership of Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr., and Lane's End Racing.

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TDN Derby Top 12: The Strong Get Stronger

Several contenders at the top of this week's rankings solidified their status, but one new shooter debuted at No. 4 to add some intrigue as we edge past the 90-day mark to the GI Kentucky Derby.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

Arabian Knight's thorough ransacking of the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 effectively slammed the door on any early-season debate about whether or not this 'TDN Rising Star' would live up to the outsized hype heaped upon him after just a single sprint win three months ago.

This speed-centric, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) not only wired the field with aplomb, but he checked a lot of boxes on the Derby intangibles list, including shipping away from his home base, handling both a sloppy racing surface and two turns, and showing that being confronted with multiple tactical in-race challenges didn't faze him in the least.

Arabian Knight broke fluidly and willingly, then effortlessly cleared the pesky 46-1 Frosted Departure (Frosted), who had inside position. Splashing onto the backstretch, Arabian Knight was looking around “a lot” according to jockey John Velazquez, who moved him off the rail to relax, maintaining a steady leading margin of 1 1/2 lengths into the far turn. The second and third favorites launched one-punch bids that soon flattened out, but the overachieving Frosted Departure was still gamely shadowing the 2-5 fave, having whittled down the lead to half a length at the head of the homestretch.

Velazquez then got after his colt, but Arabian Knight only needed two cracks of the crop and some mild hand-urging to mesh into an unmatchable deep-stretch gear that surely did not come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves. “Going to the wire I was like, 'Okay, that's what I wanted to see,” Velazquez said post-win.

It's tough to tease out any “cons” to go along with all these gushing “pros” about Arabian Knight's sophomore unveiling. If there is one, it might be a very mild quibble about the Beyer Speed Figure he earned (96), which marked a slight regression from his 97 debut in a MSW on the Breeders' Cup undercard back in November

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte (Violence) is three workouts into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. Even though this 'TDN Rising Star' ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) capped his 2-year-old season with a definitive win in the Breeders' Cup, proponents of key races have long since locked in on Forte's other Grade I route victory, the Oct. 8 Breeders' Futurity S., as the defining stakes race on the Derby trail so far.

In addition to Forte's next-out tally in the GI Juvenile, that Keeneland race also yielded back-to-back next-out Grade II and III stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro); the next-out Grade III winner Two Phil's (Hard Spun); the eventual Grade III winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Newgate (Into Mischief); one other next-out listed stakes winner, and a next-out allowance winner. In addition, the runner-up in that race, the highly acclaimed Loggins (Ghostzapper), who has yet to have a published workout in 2023, rates highly on many “wiseguy” lists as the juvenile who ran the best losing effort in a Grade I stakes last season.

There have now been 11 Kentucky Derby qualifying points races run at 1 1/16 miles. No Derby prospect since has eclipsed Forte's 100 Beyer from that race (although two have tied it), and his closing final-sixteenth fraction of :6.19 in the stretch run of the Juvenile is still fastest among the 1 1/16-mile preps.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Trainer Todd Pletcher has been known to make judicious use of Florida allowance races in prepping his Derby prospects, and Saturday's eight-length blowout in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream left the impression this $1.3-million KEESEP colt by Tapit has the athleticism and confidence to be a major player when assigned a two-turn stakes task.

Breaking from the rail as a first-time Lasix user Feb. 4, Tapit Trice (again) was a touch slow leaving the gate. Luis Saez swooped him out to the five path, and this assertive gray picked off half the pack to carve out a sweet stalking spot, gaining incrementally down the long backstraight run. Tapit Trice built up serious momentum by the five-sixteenths pole, and when he accosted his favored stablemate for the lead, he managed to dispatch him without serious tussle.

Slicing into the home stretch with no rivals left to conquer, Tapit Trice got to gawking a bit, but Saez refocused him with one stern right-handed swat nearing the furlong marker before finishing under a moderate drive.

The 92-Beyer win generated no shortage of speculation about how Tapit Trice might have prevailed had he instead been entered in the GIII Holy Bull S. over 1 1/16 miles that same afternoon. But his first-level allowance win will prove useful in the long run considering this colt still needs to work on alertness out of the gate, a minor issue that up to this point has been overcome by raw ability and prime positioning in one-turn miles.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA, is a good example of a Derby prospect whose visual impressions rate quite a bit higher than the speed numbers he's earned in those races.

The 82-Beyer victor of Saturday's Holy Bull S. gave up considerable ground on both turns while always being within three lengths of striking distance from the leaders. Urged five-sixteenths out by Junior Alvarado, Rocket Can responded on cue, seizing the lead off the turn and remaining mentally intent through the stretch, maintaining a three-quarter length winning margin with a bearing-down stablemate hot on his heels.

Starting with a switch to routes in his third start, trainer Bill Mott has developed an efficient gray who now comes out running to establish key positioning, knows how to pounce off the far turn, and without hesitation throws himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns.

Rocket Can's mid-pack tactics in the Holy Bull were also against the grain of Gulfstream's short-stretch track layout for 1 1/16 miles, which had him starting from the outermost post very close to the first turn in a race that ends at the sixteenth pole. And he did his job while overcoming a moderate tempo that did no pace favors to aid his stalking style.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

Banishing has resumed training after getting cast in his stall Jan. 20, requiring sutures to close a hind-leg cut.

Trainer Brendan Walsh told Daily Racing Form last week that “nothing has been ruled out or ruled in” as far as the next race for this Godolphin homebred. He had been slated to start favored in allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds the day after his accident, but had to scratch.

With a pedigree that looks more tantalizing the closer we get to 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May (by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare), this chestnut with a distinctive white blaze won at second asking on Dec. 26 over 1 1/16 miles in New Orleans, bounding home by 8 1/2 lengths and earning a 90 Beyer for the effort.

He was a front-running force in that race, displaying measured speed while edging away under pressure before cracking open the race late. His final time of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles four races later on that card.

6) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

It's rare when you encounter a pedigree with a breeding line that features a sire (Arrogate at 122) and damsire (Bellamy Road at 120) who both posted stratospheric Beyer figures of at least 120 during their racing careers.

Cave Rock himself ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) uncorked a 101 Beyer in his 6 1/2-furlong sprint debut last summer at Del Mar, and he upped the ante to 104 with a dominant win in the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita.

He was then a beaten favorite with reasonable excuses in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (hot and bothered pre-race, worked too hard through quick opening quarter).

But those imposing stats all start to fade in relevancy the longer this 'TDN Rising Star' remains without a published workout. As of Monday morning, he's the only Top 12 contender yet to hit the worktab this year, and trainer Bob Baffert now faces a race against the clock to launch a campaign that includes at least one prep race between now and May 6.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

On the face of it, 'TDN Rising Star' Faustin's second-place finish in the four-horse, seven-furlong Jan. 29 GII San Vicente S. was only a so-so effort. But from a longer-term developmental perspective, the race could still end up being a useful stepping-stone.

The winner was his stablemate, Havnameltdown (Uncaptured), who looks, acts, and performs like a true one-turn stakes colt. Havnameltdown also had everything his own way on the front end, and while Faustin did show some flashes of interest–like diving into an opening at the rail when jockey Ramon Vazquez shook the reins to cue him three-eighths out–this son of Curlin (out of a Hard Spun mare) clearly needs more real estate to uncoil effectively.

Trainer Bob Baffert said post-race that Havnameltdown “will stay one turn. Faustin, he was kind of a grinding slow, he wants to go longer. [But] you try to get outs into them so they'll learn and you'll figure [them out]. The problem is that if you break your maiden first time out, you have to run in stakes. It is that way all over the country. Just getting these races into them it is important. Faustin, you can tell he is not there yet. [But] once he goes two turns, you'll see a big difference in him. He wat trying to get there, but he was running against a top-class sprinter.”

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Signator, a $1.7-million OBSAPR son of Tapit, is gearing up for his 2023 campaign after being sidelined late last fall with a wrenched ankle.

His professional, stalking score while driving through at the rail in an Oct. 14 MSW mile at Aqueduct was eye-catching enough to earn 'TDN Rising Star' status, and he's now three breezes into his work pattern at Payson Park.

“I haven't really picked out a place to run him yet, but it won't be long,” trainer Shug McGuaghey said on Friday, adding that Gulfstream or Tampa are the two likely comeback spots. “He's grown, gotten bigger, and filled out the way we want him to.”
McGuaghey is quite familiar with the female side of Signator's pedigree, having trained the dam (Pension), the second dam (Furlough), and great-grandsire Easy Goer.

“Signator is a lot different than Pension. She was very high-strung, and just broke her maiden. But some of the others were fairly nice,” he added with understatement.

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

This son of son of 2017 Belmont S. victor Tapwrit ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; EASMAY $340,000) has compiled a 3-for-3 record, but he'll be due for a dive into the graded end of the stakes pool in his next outing, which is likely to come at either Fair Grounds or Oaklawn.

A 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation sports a decent MSW-allowance-ungraded stakes progression, with ascending winning Beyer figures of 81-85-91.

Trainer Brad Cox has described him as an intelligent colt who “doesn't overdo it,” which he believes will only be a plus as the distances increase along with the demands of tougher competition.

Victory Formation's current company lines could use some beefing up: The three horses who ran 3-4-5 behind him in the Jan. 1, short-stretch Smarty Jones S. all failed to win in next-out stakes, with all three of them regressing on the Beyer scale.

10) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 4-1-1-0, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

When a Bob Baffert-trained colt requires four starts to break his maiden, that usually relegates him to the “B” list within a stable of sophomores that annually fields a pretty deep bench.

I wouldn't count Hejazi out of the mix based on that profile, though. The $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini ran better in his trio of defeats than those races might seem on paper.

A step slow out of the gate in his Aug. 20 Del Mar sprint debut, Hejazi rushed up to lead between calls, backed off, then fired again to land second behind an eventual grass stakes winner.

Start No. 2 saw Hejazi drawn way out in post 10 sprinting 5 ½ furlongs, and he flashed wide speed behind wire-to-wire stablemate Speed Boat Beach (Bayern), who established a track-record clocking and has subsequently gone on to win two turf stakes.

Start No. 3 was an ambitious push to try and get Hejazi to the Breeders' Cup, and as a maiden against winners in the American Pharoah S. he managed third behind stablemate Cave Rock, the eventual favorite and runner-up in the Juvenile.

A three-month freshening did Hejazi a world of good, and he finally hit the winner's circle going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15, swatting away two challengers inside the final half a furlong (97 Beyer).

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee, who just hit his third birthday Feb. 6, was a surprising sort straight out of the gate, winning over seven furlongs in his Sept. 3 Saratoga debut at 14-1 odds.

In three 1 1/16 miles since then, he's overachieved without being overwhelming, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 and the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 by rallying off the tailgate with wide, steady drives.

The only loss to date for this $200,000 KEESEP grad came in start No. 2, and considering Instant Coffee was making the jump straight into Grade I company while going around two turns for the first time in the key-race Breeders' Futurity S., he actually managed a decent fourth behind eventual divisional champ Forte.

Instant Coffee's race spacing and foundation both leave room for continued improvement, with trainer Brad Cox indicating that one or two additional stakes in the Fair Grounds prep series are on his radar.

12) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $69,750. Last Start: Won Sar Maiden Special Weight, Aug. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

It's now been half a year since Disarm has been in the entries. This 'TDN Rising Star' (based on his 6 ¼-length, 86-Beyer Saratoga sprint score Aug. 6) has been breezing somewhat under the radar at Fair Grounds, but he's now four works in and up to five furlongs.

“He's training with anticipation of him making it back to the Derby trail,” owner/breeder Ron Winchell texted to TDN over the weekend. As for a target race, Winchell wrote that he and trainer Steve Asmussen “will know more after his next work.”

Last summer, Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy. Looks like he's gonna stretch out beautifully. We will definitely get to dream with him for a while.”

Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons, and at the time, Asmussen predicted a return sometime during the New Orleans winter/spring meet.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: The Strong Get Stronger appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 30

We're on the cusp of the one-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, and this Saturday marks the most important weekend of nine-furlong preps on the Triple Crown calendar, with significant stakes at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct. Next week, the Top 12 expands to the Top 20 as the race for qualifying points intensifies and the actual field begins to take shape.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 7-3-1-3, $422,440.
Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP. Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 80

Greatest Honour has not been dethroned from his top ranking despite a so-so third as the 4-5 fave in the GI Florida Derby because he's still the horse to beat over 10 furlongs with a more robust pace in front of him. Since he burst into the Top 12, I've been cautioning that it can be tactically dangerous to fall in love with a deep closer as your Derby horse because late runners are so often at the mercy of traffic. That exact scenario worked against this Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred on Saturday, when jockey Jose Ortiz tried to follow the rail trip of eventual winner Known Agenda (Curlin), but instead had his momentum halted three times when hemmed in on the backstretch and on the far turn. Greatest Honour got pelted with kickback and briefly had to pause at the heels of several rivals before tipping out for a belated rally that lacked true spark. Ortiz wisely didn't hammer on his horse when it was obvious Greatest Honour wasn't in it to win it down the lane, and we should expect to see the tightest version yet of this long-striding stayer by the time trainer Shug McGuaghey gets him to Louisville.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3
Next Start: GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

The undefeated juvenile champ closed as the 4-1 favorite Sunday in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' and Godolphin homebred is a high-energy stalker who has demonstrated an adept level of comfort both pressing the pace and rating from farther back. But he's yet to encounter a serious, multi-pronged, deep-stretch challenge in any of his victories, and thus far he's been superior enough that jockey Luis Saez has been able to park him outside and in the clear, giving up ground so as not to encounter traffic. That strategy might not work in a crowded 20-horse race like the Derby. But then again, elite-level horses make their own breaks, and in-race agility is very much on the side of this athletic gray. As of this writing, no other Top 12 horses are listed as probables for Saturday's GII Blue Grass S., and Essential Quality figures to go off as one of the heavier prep-race favorites we've seen this spring. He's already won twice at Keeneland going long (albeit over the short-stretch configuration that ends at the sixteenth pole). But we're now going on 30 years since the last winner of the Blue Grass–Strike the Gold in 1991–parlayed that win into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May. In that interim, however, three horses–Street Sense in 2007, Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Sea Hero in 1993–lost the Blue Grass in their final Derby tune-up then won in Louisville.

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

The pace scenario in the Arkansas Derby figures to be one of the more intriguing tactical matchups of the Triple Crown prep season. The last time the two likely favorites met, in the GII Rebel S., Concert Tour outbroke Caddo River and Caddo River gave up the rail and the lead to let him go, but then looked uncomfortable and rank and never engaged when asked for run on the far turn. Will the two 'TDN Rising Stars' hook up from the outset in a committed duel in the Arkansas Derby? Or will jockey Joel Rosario turn the tables and opt out of a kamikaze confrontation? Concert Tour looked pretty confident bounding along at a measured clip on the lead in the Rebel, but the style of his run didn't stamp him as a needs-the-lead type of horse. At 3-for-3 lifetime and with two of those wins in sprints, Concert Tour will still be light on experience over a distance of ground in the Arkansas Derby. But his Street Sense (out of a Tapit mare) breeding line should be stout enough to allay any concerns he'll hit a wall at nine furlongs. Favorites have crossed the finish wire first in the Arkansas Derby for five straight runnings, including split divisions in 2020 (when there was a subsequent drug positive DQ).

4) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

Known Agenda has now bested No. 1-ranked Greatest Honour twice in head-to-head matchups and his Florida Derby win demonstrated marked progression and an increased level of midpack stalking comfort while racing in blinkers for the second time. He now has a stamina-centric base of three victories over nine furlongs, and trainer Todd Pletcher said Sunday that this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG “came back in great shape [with] good energy.” Known Agenda and Greatest Honour both opted for rail trips in the Florida Derby, but this colt is a touch quicker out of the gate and attained a more prominent placement, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was able to deftly guide Known Agenda through tight passages that closed by the time Greatest Honour attempted to follow him. A three-wide move off the turn put Known Agenda in charge through the lane; he wandered out under left-handed stickwork yet responded ably when roused (although it should be noted that the only rival he had to truly run down was a 12-1 shot who had been softened up in the pace duel and was on his left lead through the stretch). “I've been pleased with the way he's been able to get a better position in the race and improve his position going along. We've always had a strong feeling that added distance was going to be to his liking,” said Pletcher.

5) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

At some point in late April, jockey Joel Rosario–currently leading the continent in both earnings and graded stakes wins–is going to have to choose between two live Derby mounts, Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie. If Rosario opts off of this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT), jockey Flavien Prat could wind up with the ride. “This is the time of year where the jockeys are jockeying, literally, for their best chance to win the Derby,” Bill Strauss, a co-owner of Hot Rod Charlie, told the San Diego Union-Tribune over the weekend. He added that his partnership has been keeping contact with Prat, the runaway leader in wins and earnings at the current Santa Anita meet, and he noted that Prat rode this Oxbow colt back in September when Hot Rod Charlie was fifth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths, in a Del Mar grass MSW. “With those two, it's like, do you want [Babe] Ruth or [Joe] DiMaggio?” Strauss quipped. “You'd rather have the guy that's faced the same pitcher, though. Experience on the horse is invaluable.” So is proficiency in the Derby itself: Prat has ridden in three Derbies, placing third in 2017 aboard 40-1 Battle of Midway, and crossing the wire second but getting elevated to first via DQ on 65-1 Country House in 2019.

6) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092.
Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

The Kentucky Derby is the ultimate goal for every Top 12 contender, but don't overlook the fact that the Arkansas Derby always figured to be high on the wish list of this colt's connections. This Hard Spun homebred races in the colors of Shortleaf Stable, the outfit run by Hot Springs native John Ed Anthony. Formerly racing as Loblolly Stable, Anthony has won the Arkansas Derby a record three times, with Temperence Hill in 1980, Demons Begone in 1987, and Pine Bluff in 1992 (the latter two were half-brothers). This 'TDN Rising Star' who just hit his third birthday Mar. 29 is a speed-centric threat, but after Caddo River handed the lead to Concert Tour in the Rebel S., he refused to settle and spent most of his energy fighting the rider down the backstretch before suffering a self-inflicted meltdown turning for home. That subpar performance has a “too bad to be true” aura to it though, and it's definitely not in line with the poised and professional appeal that Caddo River flashed earlier in the winter. This colt absolutely needs a qualifying points influx to make the traveling team to Louisville. Right now he's ranked 30th with 10.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

If you like Derby contenders with ample seasoning, Midnight Bourbon should appeal to your taste. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow out of a Malibu Moon mare has made seven starts, all at a mile or longer. Five were in graded stakes, and he's never finished worse than third while racking up Beyers of 93, 96 and 96 in starts at age three. But Midnight Bourbon has yet to unleash that breakthrough effort he seems capable of. He earned his maiden at Ellis Park in a race that yielded only one next-out winner from nine starters, and his GIII Lecomte S. score was achieved under an ideal pace scenario when Midnight Bourbon unexpectedly found himself on the lead with no pressure. This colt is a hard trier capable of digging in when challenged, but Hot Rod Charlie pasted him pretty solidly when they hooked up for the final 2 1/2 furlongs of the Louisiana Derby. Midnight Bourbon looms as a second-tier threat at this point. But if chaos reigns in the Derby, we at least know that he's fit enough to handle a distance of ground and has experienced a few stretch fights that may have toughened him up.

8) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Opt. Clm., GP, Mar. 11
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence wowed in his 89-Beyer maiden debut on the GI Pegasus World Cup undercard (other next-out starters collectively 1-for-8), then got a useful allowance tightener at 1-10 odds when coasting home when under light encouragement in a Mar. 11 one-turn mile at Gulfstream. Now this Godolphin homebred will hit the road in search of Derby qualifying points in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct, where he'll be making both his two-turn and stakes debuts while foregoing Lasix for the first time. “He's a very nice, quiet, easy-going horse and I don't think the travel will affect him at all,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We'll see how he handles the track. He hits me as a horse who can handle any kind of surface.”

9) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $165,200.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14

At 2-for-4 with a stakes win to his name, Medina Spirit's overachieving SoCal form looked pretty good in and of itself for a horse who twice sold at public auction for relatively short money ($1,000 OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN). Then came last week's revelation from trainer Bob Baffert that this Protonico colt was discovered to have a slightly entrapped epiglottis and has recently had surgery to correct it. “Pretty impressive he still ran that well,” Baffert told DRF.com. “We scoped him after [the GII San Felipe Mar. 6]. Gave him a few extra days for it to clear up.” Medina Spirit has since twice worked well, firing one training bullet. His GIII Lewis S. wire job was notable for the way he took heat on the lead through swift splits, then never let another horse by him in a three-way fight that had him a neck in front at the wire. That performance took on added significance when third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie wired the Louisiana Derby with a 99 Beyer next time out. Medina Spirit's only two losses were seconds behind now-sidelined stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief), who had been ranked as high as No. 2 on the Derby Top 12 through mid-March.

10) REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) (Dubawi {Ire}–Minidress {GB}, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Godolphin (IRE). T-Charles Appleby. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, 5-4-0-0, $549,879.
Last Starts: 1st G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

Rebel's Romance (Ire), a Godolphin homebred by Dubawi (Ire), has a Kentucky Derby berth if his connections opt to ship the UAE Derby winner (currently fourth in qualifying points with 100). This is a big gelding known as a slow breaker, and he at first looked out of touch at the back of the pack while careening six paths off the fence through the first turn at Meydan. Rebel's Romance settled on the backstretch run, then methodically began picking off half the pack with an outside swoop. Always making headway, he responded to rousing down the long home straight to win easily by open lengths. “He is still very much a work in progress and he looked much better tonight than he did in Saudi Arabia,” said trainer Charlie Appleby. “I think the biggest attribute to him today is that he was going to stay. We were always confident he was going to stay. Stepping up in trip was going to be his forte.”

11) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc &
Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM,
Mar. 6. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

Stabled at Palm Meadows in Florida and training up to the Kentucky Derby, the 15-1 winner of the GII Tampa Bay Derby had his first breeze since that victory on Saturday, going a half mile in :49.25 (17/58). This $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop Ironicus colt owns a 3-for-3 record while displaying a versatile running style, winning on the lead, while stalking, and from closing farther off the pace. At Tampa, Helium was four wide on both turns, got first run at the tiring pacemaker, then gamely held off a fresh closer late in the lane. While Helium will go eight weeks between starts, the third- fifth- and sixth-place horses who ran behind him in the Tampa Derby ran back on Saturday in stakes at Turfway and Gulfstream; two ran sixth, the other was eighth. Only one horse has ever parlayed wins in the Tampa/Kentucky Derbies—Street Sense in 2007. But Helium's maternal grandsire, Thunder Gulch, was the 1995 Derby winner, and Helium's odds in this year's Run for the Roses probably won't be too far off grandpa's juicy 24-1 price.

12) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY);
T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-0, $182,530.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

The 2-for-4 Risk Taking was committed to the Wood Memorial soon after he won the GIII Withers S. when trainer Chad Brown articulated a desire to keep this $240,000 KEESEP bay racing over a track and distance at which the colt has demonstrated ability. But over the past 10 days or so, the list of probables for the Wood has morphed from a relatively shallow stakes to a fairly deep lineup that now includes No. 8-ranked Prevalence, a pair of Aqueduct stakes victors, the beaten fave in the Tampa Bay Derby, and maybe a West Coast invader. After Risk Taking won the Withers with a sweet stalking trip, Brown said “everyone that's touched the horse has commented about how classy he was, the ability that he has, and how he will get better with time and distance.” On Saturday, we'll find out.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Candy Man Rocket (Candy Ride {Arg}): Winner of the GIII Davis S. but beaten fave in the Tampa Bay Derby rerouted from Arkansas Derby to Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Defunded (Dialed In): Impressive MSW sprint layoff winner for Baffert could resurface in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

Hush of a Storm (Creative Cause) This New York-bred winner of the Battaglia S. scratched out of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks in favor of Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Like the King (Palace Malice): Big, rangy colt with affinity for turf and Tapeta survived foul claim to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Soup and Sandwich (Into Mischief): Fought the pace battle and gallantly stuck around late in the lane despite being on his left lead through the stretch of the Florida Derby. Trainer Mark Casse also reported this gray got “a little worked up” shipping over from Palm Meadows. “He'll run a lot better out of his stall at Churchill Downs.”

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