Racing’s Crystal Ball – 10 Predictions For 2024

Anyone who bets on racing will know too well the perils that come with predicting the outcome of a sporting event. But what if we take it a couple of steps further and, for a bit of fun, try and gaze into the crystal ball and see what could be in store for 2024?

From Frankie Dettori returning to the saddle in Europe to Wathnan Racing continuing its march in Britain, here are 10 predictions-some fun and some serious-for the new year. 

Dettori's Groundhog Day To Continue Into 2024

We've all seen the movie Groundhog Day, haven't we? The one where Bill Murray gets caught in a time loop? Well, if you haven't, the same script could well be playing out for real through Frankie Dettori's retirement [or lack thereof].

For all the people who had convinced themselves that Dettori had achieved a dream send-off when guiding King Of Steel to victory in the Champion S. at Ascot, there were just as many people rolling their eyes at the idea that one of the world's greatest riders was ready to set off into the sunset. 

Of course, Dettori has committed to ride on in America for the winter but, what happens after that? What happens if a big-ticket ride becomes available for a Guineas or a Derby? Don't tell me that Dettori, who arguably rode as well last year as he has in years, is going to give up on that opportunity for the sake of staying true to his word?

The farewell tour served its purpose and generated a subplot for almost every major meeting that Dettori rode at in 2023. However, the thought that we have seen the last of Frankie in Europe is not something I'd be taking short odds on this year. 

Classic Glory On The Cards For Blue Point?

From a bloodstock perspective, Blue Point hogged just as many headlines as Frankie did throughout 2023. Tipped by many to scoop first-season sire honours, Blue Point delivered in no uncertain terms, coming up trumps with two genuine top-notchers in Big Evs and Rosallion. 

The latter has real claims of bagging Classic glory for his young sire sensation this year and is just 12-1 to land the 2,000 Guineas. Big Evs proved he is a classy sprinter to look forward to when bagging the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and the likelihood of him landing a major sprint in Europe is strong. 

It's worth noting that Blue Point's most famous triumphs, his back-to-back Royal Ascot successes in the King's Stand S. and Diamond Jubilee S. back in 2019, came in his five-year-old campaign. The best may yet be to come from his progeny in 2024 and beyond and, if he is to bag a breakthrough Classic success, perhaps it may come through Rosallion in the Irish 2,000 Guineas provided City Of Troy stays away. 

Bank On Sangster To Have A Big Year

Oliver Sangster | Keeneland

Speaking of breakthrough successes at the highest level, there is a chance that up-and-coming trainer Ollie Sangster can bag a first Group 1 or even Classic victory with stable star Shuwari this season. 

Grandson of the late Robert Sangster, Ollie has done his bit to keep the family name in lights and enjoyed a stellar debut season as a trainer by sending out 13 winners from 81 runners, highlighted by the Fillies' Mile runner-up Shuwari. 

According to those who know Sangster best, there are few trainers who work as hard as the 27-year-old, who would be thoroughly deserving of a major day in the sun in 2024. Here's hoping Shuwari can provide Sangster just that and her 1,000 Guineas claims would be greatly aided by the word soft appearing in the going description. 

Tough Task For City Of Troy To Live Up To Lofty Reputation

City Of Troy proved himself to be something out of the ordinary as a two-year-old by going unbeaten in three starts, culminating with a jaw-dropping performance in the Dewhurst. 

It was after the Dewhurst where Aidan O'Brien described City Of Troy as being the best two-year-old he has ever trained while Michael Tabor took it up a notch or two by comparing the horse to Frankel.

City Of Troy has generated much debate since that brilliant Dewhurst display but perhaps it might be wisest to side with Mick Kinane, who, in acknowledging the awesome talent the Ballydoyle-trained colt clearly has, said that he still has a lot to prove in order to be compared with the likes of Sea The Stars and Frankel

Certainly at this juncture, City Of Troy would appear the most likely winner of the 2,000 Guineas, which his general even-money odds reflects. However, whether we will be speaking of him in the same ilk as Frankel come the end of the season, now that is a big ask. 

One thing that isn't up for debate is that Justify is quickly confirming himself as a very serious stallion, not only in America and Australia, but also in Europe. Not long after City Of Troy recorded his Dewhurst demolition, Justify's daughter Opera Singer did something similar in the Prix Marcel Boussac.

Both horses sit at the head of the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas betting respectively and it will be fascinating to see how their careers progress this term. 

Japan To Win The Derby

Yoshito Yahagi | Emma Berry

Now this would be a bit of fun; what if Japan were to win the Derby? Or, if I was to be more specific, what if trainer Yoshito Yahagi was to take out another major prize on the international circuit by sending out a brother to Sottsass to score at Epsom? You know, it's not impossible. 

Shin Emperor is clearly bred for the job. Bought by Yahagi, who has recorded major success at the Breeders' Cup, Dubai World Cup and Saudi Cup meetings in recent years, for €2.1 million at Arqana in 2021, Shin Emperor has always been held in high regard. 

A Group 3 winner already in Japan, he went down by less than a length in the G1 Hopeful S. at Nakayama over the festive period, doing his reputation no harm in the process. 

Yahagi is famous for travelling his horses all over the world and, in Shin Emperor, he has a colt who clearly fits the Derby profile being a brother to the Arc winner Sottsass. In betting terms, this is one of the more fanciful predictions for 2024, but what a story it would be. 

Pinatubo To Emulate Blue Point 

Sottsass, of course, is one of the first-season stallions that many enthusiasts are looking forward to this year. While his stock has gone down extremely well, highlighted by the sale of a €525,000 colt at Arqana last year, it seems as though everyone who is anyone is tipping Pinatubo to emulate Blue Point by coming up trumps for Darley yet again. 

Many of the top industry judges hitched their wagon to Blue Point's wheel last year and we all know how that ended. The same theme developed at the yearling and foal sales last year with Pinatubo and to a similar extent with fellow Darley stallions Earthlight and Ghaiyyath. One thing's for certain: Darley appears to hold all the aces with a view towards this year's first-season sires' championship and, while it is only January, few people will be betting against Pinatubo being a big success. 

It should also be noted how well Hello Youmzain performed with his stock at the sales in France. He could be well placed to clinch champion first-season honours in France. 

Breeze-Up Market To Stay Strong Despite Market Correction

There were some tough moments in 2023 and it's fair to say that the yearling and breeding stock sales were a struggle for many. Market correction was a term we heard plenty of as many of the key figures at some of the major sales in Europe settled back into pre-Covid levels. 

With that in mind, there is understandably some apprehension heading into the new year and the first major metric into how well things are going in 2024 will come at the breeze-up sales.

But just how much of a correction can we expect to see here? There seems to be a huge demand for the ready-to-run horses and the breeze-up sales have never been a more popular shopping outlet for international buyers than it is now. 

It should also be noted that unbeaten two-year-old and dual Group 1 winner Vandeek, who sold to Anthony Stroud for 625,000gns at the Craven Breeze-Up Sale at Tattersalls last year, did his bit to fly the flag for this sector of the market. 

In many ways, the breeze-up market could be viewed as something of an anomaly as, similar to the point-to-point sphere, there should, in theory, always be a demand for a good horse. 

The middle to upper tiers can be expected to be solid at the breeze-up sales come the spring but it will be interesting to see how the median and clearance rates hold up. 

Wathnan Racing To Continue Its March

Richard Brown: buys on behalf of Wathnan Racing | Zuzanna Lupa

One man who is sure to be out in force at the breeze-up sales is Blandford Bloodstock's Richard Brown but, perhaps most interesting of all, will be the bloodstock agent's buying on behalf of Wathnan Racing. 

Wathnan Racing embarked on ownership in Britain with a number of statement victories, none more so than when private purchase Courage Mon Ami won the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot on just his fourth career start. 

It's likely that Wathnan Racing, which is the ownership vehicle of the Emir Of Qatar, can go from strength to strength in 2024. 

Tough Times Ahead For Smaller Breeders 

Ed Harper of Whitsbury Manor Stud said something frightening in a recent TDN Q&A. When commenting on some of the smaller clients of his who enjoyed a touch when selling foals by the stud's superstar stallion Havana Grey, he revealed that for many, their big payday would be just enough to keep them going for just a few more years, such are the choppy waters the smaller breeders are navigating through right now. 

If you were to take an x-ray of the breeding game in its current form and peg it into the light, it wouldn't make for pretty reading, especially in Britain. That was there for everyone to see on the first and last days of the foal sales at Tattersalls in December where many key stakeholders voiced their concerns about the future of the smaller breeder in Britain. 

Of course, this is not a problem exclusive to Britain, but Brexit and the lack of small-time buyers and pinhookers getting into the game compared to Ireland clearly contributed to some of those frightening figures. 

It begs the question; for how long can this continue? Where there is a will there's a way, and in that same Q&A, Harper called on smaller breeders to take a look at themselves in the mirror when it comes to breeding horses for the sales ring. 

Some will take that advice and reinvest but, inevitably, more will slip away. It appears as though there could be some tough times ahead for the smaller breeders. 

No Sign Of Polarisation Slowing Down Over Jumps

On a similarly depressing theme, there doesn't appear to be any pause to polarisation in the markets, particularly when it comes to the National Hunt game. There could be a different winner to ever race at the Cheltenham festival and, chances are, people will still be honing in on the same two stallions at the major store sales. 

King George hero Hewick once again reminded that a good horse can come from anywhere. Shark Hanlon's 800 quid wonder is by Virtual, a son of Pivotal and, without doing the horse a disservice, is what many would describe as a non descript stallion. 

But here he is, siring the winner of one of the most important jumps races of the year, and once again proving that the love is more readily shared than what some would lead you to believe over jumps.

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Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handed Out At Keeneland Tuesday Night

Winners were named across seven categories with a total of $122,000 awarded at the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards, now in its eighth year in the United States, which concluded Tuesday evening at Keeneland Racecourse's Entertainment Center, Godolphin said in a press release after the event.

For the first time this year, in addition to the three finalists in each category, two alternates were also chosen and received monetary rewards. Todd Schrupp, FanDuel TV analyst, served as the master of ceremonies.

Tom Law, Saratoga Special Managing Editor and this year's judging panels chair, commented, “The winners and finalists honored at this year's ceremony, along with the alternates, are truly great representatives of the hard-working individuals in our industry. It's been said many times that they are the backbone of the industry that we all love; and it's absolutely true. And speaking for myself, as well as my fellow judges, we'd like to express our admiration for all the nominees and what they do for our sport.”

The Awards are primarily sponsored by Godolphin in partnership with the National HBPA, TOBA, The Jockey Club, and Breeders' Cup. Media partners are the TDN, BloodHorse Publications, Daily Racing Form, The Paulick Report, Fox Sports, Real Players Inside the Backstretch and FanDuel.

This year the awards received additional monetary and collateral support from category sponsors NYRA, 1/ST Racing, Keeneland, Hallway Feeds, NTRA, Hagyard Equine Medical Institute and Churchill Downs.

The winners of the Leadership, Breeding and Racing, the Support Services, as well as the Administration category, will receive a prize of $7,500 to the winner, and their farm/stable also receives $1,000. Two finalists are each awarded $2,500, and their respective farms/stables receive $1,000. Separate from the winner and two finalists, two runners-up receive $2,000 each.

The winner of the Newcomer Award will receive $5,000 and $1,000 to their farm/stable. Two finalists are each awarded $2,500. Two alternates receive $1,000 each.

The winner of the Community Award will receive a prize of $7,500 with an additional prize of $2,500 going to the charity of their choice. The runner-up will receive $2,500. Two alternates will receive $1,500 each.

The full list of winners, finalists and alternates are:
Newcomer Award, sponsored by NYRA
Winner: Dominick Merritt, Exercise Rider, Todd Pletcher
Finalists: Deja Robinson, Ed Brown Society and Nursing Staff Technician with Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital; Sara Gordon, Social Media Manager, Thoroughbred Daily News
Alternates: Adrianne Devaux, Cherie Devaux Racing Stable; Susan Kemper, Coolmore America/Ashford Stud

Support Services Award, sponsored by 1/ST Racing
Winner: Bill Vest, Backside Security Manager, Churchill Downs
Finalists: Rita Cutler, Security Guard, New York Racing Association; Tracy Attfield, Owner, TLore Management
Alternates: Raul Gutierrez, Santa Anita Park; Julie Adair, Farm Owner

Katherine McKee Administration Award, sponsored by Keeneland
Winner: Kelly Danner, Racing Operations Manager, Churchill Downs
Finalists: Jamie Bradley, Office Manager, Steve Asmussen Racing Stable; Samantha McGreevy, Sales Manager, Taylor Made Sales Agency
Alternates: Gwenn Pierce, WB Payson Park, LLC; Eleanor Poppe, New York Race Track Chaplaincy

Dedication to Breeding Award, sponsored by Hallway Feeds
Winner: Jimmy Tate, Assistant Broodmare Manager, WinStar Farm
Finalists: Phillip Hampton, Stallion Groom, Godolphin; Rafael Zambrano, Farm Manager, War Horse Place
Alternates: Harmon Sullivan, New Vocations Racehorse Adoption; Abel Garcia, Four Pillars Holding, LLC

Dedication to Racing Award, sponsored by the NTRA
Winner: Myra “Mickey” Hall, Groom, Herringswell Stables
Finalists: Kathy Sanchez, Assistant Trainer, Tom Amoss Racing Stable; Laura “Tils” Tilbury, Hotwalker, Todd Pletcher Racing Stables
Alternates: Carlos Davila, Craig Wheeler Racing Stable; Moises Morales, Groom

Leadership Award, sponsored by Hagyard Equine Medical Institute
Winner: Manuel Hernandez, Farm Manager, Walmac Farm
Finalists: Gene Guy, Farm Manager, Glencrest Farm; Loretta Lusteg, Assistant Trainer, John C. Kimmel Racing Stable
Alternates: Juan Aguilar, Indian Creek Farm; Christine Jones, Pleasant Acres Stallions

Dr. J. David “Doc” Richardson Community Award, sponsored by Churchill Downs
Winner: Linda Doane, Lifestyle Program Director, The Healing Place/Churchill Downs
Runner-up: Francisco Barrera, Backstretch Employee Service Team
Alternates: Merlin Cano, Backside Learning Center; Diana Varon, Keeneland Racetrack Chaplaincy

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Letter To The Editor: From A Young Fan

My first race was two years ago. The 2021 Haskell Invitational S., the summer before my senior year of college. It was the post parade that hooked me.

When “Born to Run” sounded through the grandstand as Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon bounced onto the track, it didn't matter how the race would go. I was in. It was enough to latch onto despite the outrage I felt towards my home-state regulators for an ill-advised whip rule that took down Midnight Bourbon, along with my exacta box.

But though he fell, everyone came home safe that day.

I turned into a racing evangelist, with Hot Rod Charlie at the center of my devotion. I brought my friends along to his revenge tour at the Pennsylvania Derby, where he finally triumphed over Midnight Bourbon. We gutted out another inquiry, after which, I wildly bear-hugged a friend. We'd finally hit that exacta.

I loved racing. My dorm room was littered with Daily Racing Forms. I missed dinner to watch the Breeders' Cup Classic. Ducked into empty classrooms to watch Derby preps at Oaklawn. I drove three hours round-trip to Aqueduct at 8 a.m. on a Saturday to bet the Dubai World Cup because they didn't offer the superfecta on 4NJBETS.

After college I kept it up. In March of this year, I went with my girlfriend–one of our first dates had been at the 2022 Haskell–to Kentucky for the first time. We stayed in Midway, there for “Road to the Horse” at the Kentucky Horse Park. I left in the middle, hiked over to see Funny Cide and Silver Charm in their stalls. One afternoon we walked around Keeneland. Circled the paddock, went beneath the stand and onto the track. It felt like walking on hallowed ground. A few months before, we'd been brought to tears by Cody's Wish's win in the Dirt Mile and dazzled by Flightline's romp in the Classic.

So you know how I felt when I saw Maple Leaf Mel, the undefeated New York-bred, bounding away from a Grade I field as the camera zoomed in on her. She went fast early–44 and two for the half mile–and she went fast late, with a gutsy performance by turning away her classiest opponents yet. She was “six-for-six.” That's the line etched in my mind. It's the last thing I remember hearing from track announcer Frank Mirahmadi before she went down.

It felt like a gut-punch–it was the first time I understood what that word meant. I couldn't think for a few minutes. I couldn't talk. I couldn't watch Cody's Wish run afterwards.

I avoided watching Saratoga after that. But this past weekend I turned on the FOX broadcast for the first time since. It had been three weeks, I reasoned. Enough time to reset my mind. Anyways, my favorite active horse, Arcangelo, was running in the Travers, and I felt sure he'd win. What kind of sport would this be if I couldn't watch it live?

So I turned on the broadcast shortly after 3 p.m. I watched Gunite, under a great ride from Tyler Gaffalione, take down Elite Power along with his eight-race win streak. I saw that the next race was an allowance, turned the broadcast off, went back to my book. But I was back for the Jerkens. I saw the Baffert runners in the paddock, saw Jimmy Barnes sweating bullets. Saw New York Thunder looking flat, his coat dull. I pulled up the replay of his last race. Saw him blaze to victory without changing leads.

It was the post parade now. I kept watching, live on FOX. I even almost made a bet on Verifying, he was looking so muscled-up before the race.

When they burst from the starting gate, I watched New York Thunder stride out on top. He led the way through the far turn. The Baffert runners dropped back, New York Thunder having run them off their feet, each stride pounding the dirt and carrying him away from them. But then I heard Frank Mirahmadi call out the fraction of 44 and two in this $500,000 seven-furlong Grade I sprint for three-year-olds. A punishing half-mile. I shut my laptop. My nerves couldn't take it.

A minute went by. I reopened the laptop, fired up FOX. I hoped they'd come home safe. But then I saw the wide-angle camera shot, saw that the five horse wasn't in the drop-down of the top four finishers. I heard the empty unsteadiness of the commentators. I shut my laptop again, leaned back in my seat, looked blankly out the window.

I watched the Travers that evening, only after I'd known Arcangelo had won and had come back in good shape. I couldn't enjoy it, even after he sailed past the wire. When he seemed to take a bad step in the gallop-out I held my breath, despite having read that he was fine. I wanted to look away the whole time.

That's my favorite horse winning the Midsummer Derby.

I'm drawn to racing, in part, for the history. Today I watched a replay of the 1988 Breeders' Cup Distaff. Thirty-five years ago. Personal Ensign running down Winning Colors under the Churchill Downs wire. A hard-won performance from an undefeated champion. It should have been rousing. Instead during the stretch drive, I felt nothing but worry that she might fall.

That's what I see when I watch racing now.

Horse racing fan Isaac Hart lives in Glen Rock, New Jersey.

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Joint Injections: “Litmus Test” for HISA

Last month, California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) chairman Greg Ferraro scratched a persistent industry itch.

While discussing his thoughts on the rollout of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act's (HISA) drug control program, Ferraro shared his fears that the new federal rules on joint injections were weaker than had previously existed in California.

“It's a step backwards,” Ferraro said. And this regulatory reshuffle, he added, could lead to an increase in California of irreparable musculoskeletal injuries, especially of the fetlock joint.

“California is the point of the spear in terms of dealing with the public and the liability of horse racing,” said Ferraro, advocating for federal adoption of California's joint injection regulations. “I think they should use us as a sort of leader in animal welfare and jockey welfare.”

Ferraro's comments re-ignited a debate that has been simmering away in some fashion or other for decades. Just take the New York Task Force report into the rash of fatalities that bedeviled Aqueduct during the winter of 2011-2012.

“The Task Force believes that the use of systemic or intra-articular corticosteroids may have impaired veterinarians and trainers in accurately assessing horses' soundness leading up to a race,” the report found.

“The Task Force also believes that the use of these medications too close to the race may have limited the ability of the NYRA veterinarians to identify the presence of pre-existing conditions disposed to progressing to catastrophic injury.”

The New York Task Force's findings frame a key bone of contention among trainers, veterinarians and regulators: What is a smart regulatory timeframe for limiting joint injections before workouts and race days?

HISA's joint injection rules bar joint injections within 14 days prior to post-time, and within seven days of an official workout.

In California prior to HISA, the intra-articular corticosteroid fetlock injection rule mandated a 30-day stand down period prior to racing, and all corticosteroid joint injections had a 10-day stand down before workouts.

After those rules were adopted, the number of irreparable fetlock injuries in California had fallen off precipitously. Experts point to this as a prime example of the long-term systemic effects from corticosteroid usage.

Even so, there remains some skepticism within the industry that California had indeed got it right.

Mark Casse | Sarah Andrew

“Thirty days is ridiculous,” said trainer Mark Casse, who argues that such a rule is difficult to police. “What happens is, when you make rules that you cannot really enforce, it only makes the bad guys better because they don't care.”

Another key point in this whole debate? Not all joint injections are made equal.

In the decade since the New York report was issued, veterinary experts describe a shift away from corticosteroids towards hyaluronic acid joint injections, and biologic therapies like IRAP and platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injections.

They don't mask injuries the way corticosteroids can and are better at promoting joint health and healing in a way more advantageous to the horse in the long term, say proponents of these therapies.

Nevertheless, these same proponents voice frustration that the rules governing joint injections often treat corticosteroids and biologic therapies as equals.

“A lot of these injections are actually helpful, especially when you're doing PRP or you're putting [hyaluronic] acid in there,” said Casse, about biologic therapies. “I can tell you for a filly like Tepin, we would put acid in her ankles. We probably did it 20 times and she ran for years.”

Corticosteroids

Internationally renowned orthopedic surgeon Larry Bramlage is among those experts who believe HISA has got its rules surrounding corticosteroid joint injections about right.

“I think it is a good approach to being able to treat the joint that has been properly examined,” said Bramlage, who explained that corticosteroid joint injections should never be part of a “routine training program,” no matter the stand down time. “You want plenty of time to reassess the condition of the joint without the corticosteroid masking anything.”

Part of Bramlage's reasoning is how the marketplace for corticosteroids has evolved from high-dose, long-lasting versions like Methylprednisolone acetate–also called Depo-Medrol–to lower-dose, shorter acting corticosteroids like Betamethasone and Vetalog.

What kind of difference are we talking about? “We tend to think in terms of volume injected into a joint,” said Bramlage. Depo-Medrol can come in doses as strong as 40 milligrams per milliliter (mg/ml). Betamethasone, on the other hand, typically comes at a strength of 6 mg/ml.

“The original one–and as it turns out the most harmful one–was Depo-Medrol. When I was a student, we would put as much as two cc's [cubic centimeters] of Depo-Medrol when we were treating a joint,” explained Bramlage.

“But it's very long acting,” he added. “Its crystals are absorbed very slowly, so it can be found up to three months in the joint after you put it in. And that is a big disadvantage.”

Dr. Larry Bramlage | Horsephotos

Bramlage believes that the new wave of corticosteroids continues to play a role in managing the sorts of routine aches and pains that accompany high stress training programs.

“If you let inflammation go unchecked within a joint, it can eat up the articular cartilage. So just leaving a joint seriously inflamed without treating it with anything is also not the best route once you know there is no structural damage,” he said.

And the use of a low-dose, short acting corticosteroid like Betamethasone within a week of a timed workout, Bramlage said, is “a medically sound” approach if the joint has been properly assessed beforehand.

If the corticosteroid is eliminated from the horse's system enough to be undetectable in a test, he added, and the horse is still exhibiting signs of lameness, then there is a strong possibility the lameness is tied to some deeper-seated structural problem. A burgeoning stress fracture, for example, or abnormal bone remodeling. “That is the rationale for the stand down time,” he said.

The modern short-acting corticosteroids “reduce the inflammation and then get out of the way so you can read the joint again,” explained Bramlage. “And if there is a physical injury, a structural problem of some kind, it'll show up again.”

Other veterinary experts in the field have a slightly different take.

Though a corticosteroid won't necessarily show up through testing after seven days, it can still impart a systemic effect on the horse through effects like decreased inflammation in the joint and reduced lameness, said veterinarian Wayne McIlwraith, a distinguished professor at Colorado State University and like Bramlage, internationally renowned in the field.

As an example, McIlwraith cited a study he was involved in from 1997 where researchers studied the effects from triamcinolone acetonide joint injections–drugs which come under the trade names Vetalog or Kenalog. The horses were suffering osteoarthritis in the knee and were injected at 14 days and 28 days after the study start.

“We showed that lameness was significantly reduced at day 70–42 days after the second injection,” said McIlwraith. He described these effects as reduced inflammation in the joint fluid and in the joint lining membrane, as well as beneficial effects on the articular cartilage.

These effects were seen “whether we injected the osteoarthritis joint or we injected the opposite normal joint,” McIlwraith said. “In other words, a systemic effect that was very long lasting.”

McIlwraith and his fellow researchers used the same study design on Depo-Medrol–then considered the most potent corticosteroid available. They found “significant deleterious effects” to the joint cartilage in both the osteoarthritic joint and the opposite “good” joint, he said.

“The bottom line is that all the tissues of the musculoskeletal system are being exposed to the multiple complex effects of corticosteroids,” he said.

The fetlock has long been the Thoroughbred racehorse's Achilles heel. As an example, fetlock failures constituted in California nearly 60% of all musculoskeletal injuries that proved fatal during the 2018-2019 fiscal year, according to CHRB data.

The CHRB instituted its 30-day standdown regulations for corticosteroid fetlock injections on Oct. 19, 2021.

In the 20 months preceding that date, there were 83 catastrophic fetlock failures statewide, according to CHRB data. In the 19 months after that date, there were 24 catastrophic fetlock failures statewide.

Dr. Wayne McIlwraith | Colorado State University

Zeroing in specifically on Los Alamitos, the number of catastrophic fetlock failures dropped from 21 to just three during those two same periods of time bookending the rule change.

California's tightened joint injection rules have been just one part of a suite of stricter drug and equine welfare and safety rules instituted in the state over the past few years.

But for the likes of McIlwraith and Ferraro, the remarkable drop in irreparable fetlock injuries is due largely to one thing–the stricter corticosteroid joint injection regulations.

“I think we can relate this knowledge to our data in Southern California showing that injection not being allowed for 30 days in the fetlock has reduced the incidence of catastrophic injury,” said McIlwraith.

Indeed now, Ferraro advocates for the total elimination of corticosteroid use in all joints in racing and training.

“I would argue, look at our results. We didn't really have a breakdown problem with fetlock joints [in California],” said Ferraro. “In other words, if you're going the corticosteroid route, then that horse ought to be given significant time off, which means sending him to the farm.

“You can't legislate good judgment,” he added. “Corticosteroids in the hands of a wise, experienced equine veterinarian, you could probably do fine with it. But we put in this legislation because we know good judgment is not something that's always [wielded on the] backside.”

Which leads to alternative therapies to corticosteroids.

Biologic Therapies

“What you're trying to do is either slow something down or speed up something, and the goal is to slow the bad stuff down and speed up the good stuff,” said Bramlage, of the role of veterinary intervention with biologics. “[They] don't work by stopping things. They try to augment healing, not only block the mediators of inflammation.”

In explanation, Bramlage pointed to how the joint protects itself from harm and degeneration by naturally producing hyaluronic acid in the joint fluid, along with a class of molecularly heavy proteins called proteoglycan in the cartilage.

White Abarrio | Coady Photography

But corticosteroids hinder the body from producing both hyaluronic acid and proteoglycans. As such, hyaluronic acid is frequently used in combination with corticosteroid joint injections.

“You're essentially artificially adding hyaluronic acid because the corticosteroids are going to slow or stop the manufacturer of hyaluronic acid in the joint when you put them in,” Bramlage said.

When it comes to the use and efficacy of biologic treatments on racehorses, there seems to be a broad and largely favorable consensus among veterinary experts.

“You get your results from them because they stimulate healing within the joint. They calm the membrane down, and they help the cartilage surfaces. In other words, you could say they're a form of nutrient for cartilage, whereas steroids are a toxin to cartilage,” said Ferraro.

Should biologic therapies and corticosteroids joint injections be treated the same by regulators?

“No,” said McIlwraith. He explained that through research and through widespread clinical use, these therapies have been shown to have “uniquely beneficial” and other specific effects, but “no significant” negative effects.

“They are less potent immediately compared to corticosteroids which means that they are not going to be useful if used in an 'inject and race or work soon after' manner, which has been a philosophy of use by some,” said McIlwraith.

But under HISA's current rules, all joint injections are indeed treated the same. This means that biologic treatments like IRAP and PRP injections require the same 14 and seven-day standdowns for races and workouts respectively as corticosteroids.

HIWU has suspended 40 horses from racing for 30 days due to joint injections within seven days of a timed workout. Equibase only publicly maintains 60-days' worth of workout data. With what information is still available through Equibase, at least one horse on the list was injected one day before a workout. But HIWU does not publicly detail what kinds of joint injections were administered to these horses–corticosteroids or biologic treatments.

Efforts are underway to potentially modify HISA's joint injection rules.

A red-lined version of HISA's ADMC program recently shared with the TDN prohibits horses administered a fetlock joint injection from racing for 30 days, and from working for 14 days. For all joints other than the fetlock, the current restrictions–14 days from racing, seven days from working–remain in place.

According to this red-lined version, the rules still don't differentiate between corticosteroids and biologic therapies.

CHRB equine medical director Jeff Blea sits on HISA's anti-doping and medication control (ADMC) committee.

Though Blea was speaking on behalf of HISA, he said his personal opinion was that the federal ADMC program should be altered to mirror California's rules, which allow biologic therapies to be used unrestricted on any joint before a workout.

“We should want to be promoting biologic therapies because I think it's beneficial not only in the short term but the long term,” he said.

At the same time, not all veterinary practitioners agree with all aspects of the CHRB's rules on joint injections. If a horse is injected three times into the same joint within 60 days in California, the horse is automatically placed on the vet's list for 30 days.

This rule went into effect in the state on July 1 this year. And it has curbed Southern California veterinarian Ryan Carpenter's use of biologics, as it fails to distinguish between those sorts of injections and corticosteroids.

Dr. Jeff Bleu | AAEP

“It essentially has eliminated our use of IRAP, which is designed to be done once a week for a loading dose and then monthly after that,” said Carpenter.

“The unfortunate thing is that rule has actually incentivized people to not use biologics and put them back towards corticosteroids,” said Carpenter. “My corticosteroid use has increased since that rule has come in effect and would have loved to have stayed on the biologic route because I think it's better overall.”

When asked about this criticism, CHRB executive director Scott Chaney argued that the 60-day period was specifically chosen to still permit the use of biologic therapies while curbing excessive injections into the same joint.

“Even if it's not degrading the joint, clearly it's not working if you're having to mess with a specific intra-articular space over and over again within a short timeframe,” Chaney said.

More broadly, Chaney's thoughts about corticosteroid use in racing align with Ferraro's.

“Corticosteroids are unnecessary in horseracing,” he said, calling this issue a “litmus test” for HISA. “Our horsemen in California have been there and done it. We're four years into this,” he said.

“But it seems like horsemen around the rest of the country need a 'come to Jesus' moment because they're still clinging to the belief that they need corticosteroids to work a horse or run a horse. That's absurd. Any horseman or veterinarian who tells you that, they do not know what they're talking about.”

`I Would Put This Stuff In The Water'

It turns out the evolution in the use of joint injections in human athletes—and aging athletes in particular—appears remarkably similar to that of the racing world.

Andrew Pearle is the Chief of Sports Medicine at the Hospital for Special Surgery, the country's top orthopedic hospital. He is also a team physician for the New York Mets.

Pearle's area of expertise? The human knee.

“When I'm giving a steroid injection, I typically give 80 milligrams of Kenalog. It's a really good injection, particularly if there's fluid on the knee. It's certainly highly effective. In fact, there was a Nobel Prize given for the development of cortisone,” he said.

But there's a caveat.

“It's got these downstream negative effects with repeated use, and many of us don't like to give more than two shots over a lifetime in a joint,” Pearle said.

Instead, said Pearle, human medicine had moved towards alternative joint therapies like gel shots, PRP and hyaluronic acid.

“I tell patients if I could put this stuff in the water and feed it to everybody,” he said, “I would.”

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