The road to the Kentucky Derby runs through Louisiana Saturday, Feb. 18 and FanDuel TV will be live on-site at Fair Grounds with exclusive coverage of the $400,000 GII Risen Star S. as undefeated Victory Formation (Tapwrit) takes on a field of 12 rivals. There are 50-20-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line for the top five finishers.
In addition to the Kentucky Derby prep race, a Kentucky Oaks prep race on Saturday–the $300,000 GII Rachel Alexandra S.–will feature the 3-year-old seasonal bow of GSW Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief).
The world we share with these amazing animals may be an ever-changing one, but its mysteries abide. We consider ourselves ever more knowledgeable, ever more certain, riding the slipstream of science. Yet how much do we truly know, when Afternoon Deelites holds out for all those years and then waits just six days before following his owner to whatever shore may (or may not) lie beyond the horizon of life?
The same journey was made this week by the trainer of Alydar. John Veitch laid the ground for the greatest Triple Crown campaign of any horse that never won a Triple Crown race by giving him 10 starts as a juvenile. Curiously, however, trainers of the succeeding generation appear to have decided either that they have found a better way; or at least that the materials provided, since breeding became an almost exclusively commercial enterprise, are no longer equal to the same kind of treatment.
Trainers today map out the road to the Derby with two priorities: minimize gas consumption, and avoid traffic. That way, they feel, their charges can reach Churchill with a relatively full tank and pristine engine. But the fact is that you always feel able to drive a car more aggressively once it has taken a few bumps and scratches. And you also learn far more about its capacity and response if you have repeatedly had to accelerate or brake to get out of trouble, as compared with cruising along an open road and every six weeks overtaking a laboring truck while barely changing gear.
In the prevailing environment, then, we must give credit to the people at Fair Grounds for redressing the shortfall in conditioning by extending the distance of all three legs of their trials program. If horses can no longer get the kind of mental and physical foundation they once derived from sheer volume of racing, then at least they can have a little more aggregate. With a field of 14, moreover, the GII Risen Star S. is meanwhile guaranteed to steepen the learning curve.
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Saturday will be only the fourth time the race has been run over this extra 1/16th, yet its last two winners have both gone on to finish second in the Derby. One, of course, was actually promoted to first place; while much the same was done for the other by voters at the recent Eclipse Awards.
To be fair, the Risen Star was already on a roll, having lately produced a GI Preakness winner, the phenomenal Gun Runner and the promising stallion Girvin. Between here and Oaklawn, then, you won't find many handicappers nowadays still reducing the quest for the Derby winner to the two dimensions of East and West Coasts. Paradoxically, however, I feel that a still better way to regenerate the Triple Crown trail lurks right at the other end of the spectrum.
Alydar started his Classic campaign over seven furlongs; so too, as it happens, did Afternoon Deelites. With Diana Firestone also among the week's obituaries, we might mention Honest Pleasure and Genuine Risk, who both resumed in sprints as well. That had long been standard procedure, for the old school, as a way of sharpening a horse without penetrating to a vulnerable margin of fitness.
I've often remarked on the dilution of the Derby since the willful exclusion of sprinters under the starting points system. Okay, so they finally managed a meltdown last year and so set up a historic aberration in every way. But otherwise the race has lately been dominated by those setting or sharing a pace shorn of raw sprint competition. And I do think that the Derby's status as the definitive test of the American Thoroughbred, identifying the kind of genes we should want to replicate, is suffering as a result.
Between trainers' dread of running horses at all, and the imperative to bank points when they actually do, we're ending up with the worst of both worlds. Remember that it was as recently as 2015 that Nyquist and Exaggerator cranked each other up over seven in the GII San Vicente S., in 1:20.7, and that didn't work out too badly on Derby day.
I really do think that loading a few points into the San Vicente and the GIII Swale S. would be a smart move by Churchill. Because it doesn't feel as though the model nowadays favored by trainers is working on too many levels. It certainly doesn't work for fans, who get a woefully condensed narrative and reduced engagement; it arguably doesn't help the horses, sent straight into the red zone when they can't be fully fit; and I'm not sure it's working for the Derby, either as a spectacle or as a signpost to genes that can carry meaningful speed.
In the meantime, aptitudes of more obvious pertinence to the Derby scenario will at least be examined in this crowd scene for the Risen Star. And wait, look at this: there's actually a horse in the field with eight starts to his name already. Determinedly (Cairo Prince) is followed here by the pair of Tapits he held off in an allowance last month, a performance rather too faintly praised because everyone had written a different script in advance. Actually this horse's own part keeps being rewritten, having started out on turf and apparently flirted with a return to sprinting. But maybe he can keep some of these flashier types honest, and help to measure the kind of talent Victory Formation (Tapwrit) will need to maintain his unbeaten record from a post out near Baton Rouge.
From a European perspective, it's always surprising that people should be so specific, almost dogmatic, about the optimality of dirt horses operating within so narrow a range. The way people talk, you would think that the poor creatures will drop clean off the edge of the world if venturing that crucial 1/16th too far.
That's why I like to see them given the chance to work on their all-around game, and develop different strengths. Because, if the oldest of Old Friends can be so susceptible even in the span of his years, then what limits might we be putting on the things they do in their prime?
On the first page of the New Year, Brad Cox bolded his claim in the race for spots on the Kentucky Derby-points leaderboard when his undefeated colt Victory Formation cruised home the easiest of winners in the Smart Jones S. to pick up ten of them, while his stablemate Angel of Empire gave their shared conditioner the exacta.
Christened a 'TDN Rising Star' after he stylishly devastated a deep Keeneland maiden field Oct. 21 last year by over four lengths, the good-looking son of Tapwrit showed he had heart to the talent by fighting back to capture a Nov. 26 Churchill Downs allowance optional claiming contest to cap his juvenile season.
Wildly popular at the betting windows for this seasonal bow, to the tune of 3-5 favoritism, Victory Formation made the first Kentucky Derby points race a procession; breaking well enough and asked to use a bit of himself to secure his lead over Western Ghent (American Pharoah). The race was over from there as he galloped along through :23.20, :47.75, and 1:12.36 splits unchallenged with ears pricked. When Flavien Prat shook up his mount for the short run through the stretch to the wire, the colt responded by putting a comfortable three-length margin on his closing stablemate Angel of Empire and McPeek trainee Denington, who followed the latter in from the rear of the field.
With this 10 point pick up, Victory Formation now sits in a three-way tie for sixth with GII Remsen S. winner Dubyuhnell (Good Magic) and GII Los Alamitos Futurity victor Practical Move (Practical Joke) keeping him company. Angel of Empire is eleventh–though tied with six others including Denington–after claiming four points. Counting his exacta here, Brad Cox has a loaded hand thus far with six of the early top 20 in his barn.
“This horse has a great mind. He doesn't overdo it in the morning. He settles and I think the farther the better. He's got a lot of natural speed. He's able to put himself in good position and he was able to turn off and settle and finish up with good strides there,” said Cox. “The breeding suggested he would go long. You never really know [going two turns] until they do it. He has to confirm it. We have opinions, horses have the answers. He gave us the right answer today.”
#8 VICTORY FORMATION ($3.20) wins the SMARTY JONES STAKES! The 3 year old colt by TAPWRIT (@Gainesway) remains undefeated and earns 10 points in the KENTUCKY DERBY standings. Flavien Prat was aboard for @bradcoxracing who finished 1-2. Congrats to all the connections! pic.twitter.com/8PbtgD9UES
In addition to his Grade I-placed half-sister Bellamore (Empire Maker), Victory Formation also claims the dam of Italian stakes winner Sienna (Ger) (Amaron {GB}) as a half-relation. Smart N Soft, herself out of an accomplished racemare in GSW & MGSP Softly (Binalong), has a newly-turned 2-year-old filly by Karakontie (Jpn) as well as a yearling filly by Practical Joke. She visited Raging Bull (Fr) for a foal this season. This is the female family of GSW, track-record setter Coragil Cat (Forest Wildcat) and GSW Conquest Big E (Tapit). GI Kentucky Oaks-placed Til Forbid (Temperence Hill) also makes an appearance beneath the fourth dam. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.
SMARTY JONES S., $250,000, Oaklawn, 1-1, 3yo, 1m, 1:38.14, ft.
1–VICTORY FORMATION, 119, c, 3, by Tapwrit 1st Dam: Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike 2nd Dam: Softly, by Binalong 3rd Dam: Coragil, by Metfield
($100,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 EASMAY). 'TDN Rising Star'. 1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc.; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Brad Cox; J-Flavien Prat. $152,750. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $282,285. *1/2 to Bellamore (Empire Maker), GISP, $284,040.
2–Angel of Empire, 118, c, 3, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor and Serve. ($32,000 RNA Wlg '20 KEENOV; $70,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). 1ST BLACK TYPE. O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad H. Cox. $47,000.
3–Denington, 118, c, 3, Gun Runner–Stronger Than Ever, by Congrats. 1ST BLACK TYPE. O/B-Fern Circle Stables and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek) (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. $23,500.
Margins: 3, 3, HF. Odds: 0.60, 18.10, 6.80.
Also Ran: Western Ghent, How Did He Do That, Ten Days Later, Communication Memo, C. J's Storm.
3rd-Churchill Downs, $125,785, Alw (NW1X)/Opt. Clm ($100,000), 11-26, 2yo, 6f, 1:09.52, ft, neck. VICTORY FORMATION (c, 2, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) sailed home to 'TDN Rising Star'-dom last out Oct. 21 against a deep Keeneland maiden special field, going coast-to-coast by 4 3/4 lengths to become the first for his sire to garner the accolade. Hammered down to 6-5 favoritism here on the step up into the allowance ranks, he vied with a rival early from the rail through :21.44 and :45.11 splits. After briefly leading and then losing his advantage nearing the eighth pole, he responded when pressured again by Two Eagles River (Cloud Computing) and gamely prevailed by a neck. A half to Bellamore (Empire Maker), GISP, $284,040 and to the dam of Italian stakes winner Sienna (Ger) (Amaron {GB}), Victory Formation is the latest winning addition for his dam. He has a pair of half-sisters–a yearling by Karakontie (Jpn) and a weanling by Practical Joke. Smart N Soft went to Raging Bull (Fr) for 2023. The second dam is GSW Softly, herself a half-sister to GSW Coragil Cat. Sales history: $100,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $129,535. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.
O-Spendthrift Farm LLC and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc.; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Brad H. Cox.