Belmont Stakes Analysis: It’s ‘Show’ Time

Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) can make some noise at what has to be a terrific price in Saturday's GI Belmont S. He continues to improve with each of his six career starts for trainer Brad Cox, and was a bit unlucky in his last two tries. The handsome gray came up just a nose short with a wide trip after bouncing off rivals down the stretch in the GII Wood Memorial S., then was a respectable fifth after racing too close to a scorching pace in the GI Kentucky Derby.

By the sire of Gun Runner out of a two-time graded stakes-winning Tapit mare going 1 1/8 miles, Hit Show is certainly bred to handle Classic distances. He also gets plenty of stamina from his Canadian champion second dam Milwaukee Appeal (Milwaukee Brew), who hit the board in the GI Alabama S. as well as two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown facing males. Hit Show boasts the right running style for the Belmont and should sit a perfect trip just off the early leaders if he's good enough.

Tapit Trice (Tapit) looks like the one to beat for four-time Belmont winning trainer Todd Pletcher if he can overcome his slow-starting ways in what appears to be a race without a whole lot of pace signed on.

Arcangelo (Arrogate) has come on nicely in his last two, led by a game win in the local prep GIII Peter Pan S., and still has room to take another leap forward while making his two-turn debut.

Sherack Selections: 1-#7 Hit Show (10-1). 2-#2 Tapit Trice (3-1). 3-#3 Arcangelo (8-1).

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Wednesday’s Belmont Stakes Report: Rush Hour

ELMONT, NY – With the rising sun attempting to make its way through hazy skies as air quality health advisories remain in effect throughout the New York City area due to the Canadian wildfires, eight of the nine GI Belmont Stakes runners were in action during the first hour of training on a cool Wednesday morning.

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) and Tapit Shoes (Tapit), both equipped with white bridles and NYRA's commemorative 50th Anniversary Secretariat Belmont S. saddle towels, made a favorable impression in their first day of training for Brad Cox over Big Sandy at 6:12 a.m. Cox, represented by 2021 Belmont winner Essential Quality (Tapit), will also tighten the girth on the handsome gray Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}), who galloped with good energy nearly three hours later following the break.

Arabian Lion (Justify), cutting back to seven furlongs for the GI Woody Stephens S. on Saturday's loaded undercard, was among the first to stretch his legs over the freshly manicured surface. His Bob Baffert-trained stablemate and GI Preakness S. winner National Treasure (Quality Road) had a light day of training, jogging the wrong way along the outer rail at 6:23 a.m. The expected Belmont S. pacesetter posted a five-furlong bullet in Elmont two days earlier.

Il Miracolo (Gun Runner), the longest shot on the Belmont morning line at 30-1, made his presence felt a few minutes later for trainer Antonio Sano while sporting a blue pair of 'AS' blinkers along with a matching shadow roll and wraps.

The imposing duo of champion Forte (Violence) and Tapit Trice (Tapit), meanwhile, were both on their toes after a 1 1/4-mile gallop and gate schooling session for Todd Pletcher on the nearby training track at 6:48 a.m. Pletcher needs one more win in the 1 1/2-mile Classic to reach even terms with the late, great Hall of Famer Woody Stephens, who won an unthinkable five straight renewals of the Belmont from 1982-86.

Red Route One (Gun Runner) also took to the training track earlier, galloping 1 1/2 miles at 6:00 a.m.

The 'morning rush' concluded with Arcangelo (Arrogate)–who was back at it galloping on the main track a day after being credited with an unplanned four-furlong bullet workout in :48.94 (1/11)–while a small group of media assembled outside of Pletcher's barn to get a closer look at the two aforementioned likely favorites in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

With the Air Quality Index (AQI) hovering around an 'Unhealthy' 160 a day before the three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is slated to get underway, NYRA's Vice President of Communications Pat McKenna said in a statement, “NYRA utilizes external weather services and advanced on-site equipment to monitor weather conditions and air quality in and around Belmont Park. Training was conducted normally (Wednesday), and NYRA will continue to assess the overall environment to ensure the safety of training and racing throughout the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.”

When the AQI is at 175 or higher, live racing could be canceled, according to HISA's air quality guidelines.

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Champion Forte Favored for Belmont Stakes

ELMONT, NY — Last year's champion 2-year-old colt Forte (Violence), scratched on the morning of the GI Kentucky Derby with a foot bruise, was tabbed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the 155th running of the GI Belmont Stakes at Tuesday's post-position draw held in the Triple Crown Lounge at Belmont Park.

The Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable colorbearer, last seen defeating subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Mage (Good Magic) in dramatic fashion in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Apr. 1, will exit from post six with regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard in the nine-horse field.

“We still think this is the best 3-year-old in the crop and I think on Saturday he's going to prove that,” Mike Repole said.

Four-time Belmont S. winning trainer Todd Pletcher will also be very well-represented by the 3-1 second-choice on the morning-line 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit). Seventh in the Kentucky Derby, the stretch-running gray will break from post two in the 1 1/2-mile Classic.

“The key is getting him out of the gate and into position,” said Pletcher, who has two chances to reach even terms with the late Woody Stephens, who won five straight renewals of the Belmont from 1982-86. “He's got a big, long stride on him. If he can get him into a good rhythm, I think he's going to like the mile and a half. He's been training that way.”

The all-conquering Tapit has already sired four Belmont winners–Essential Quality (2021), Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016), Tonalist (2014).

Wire-to-wire GI Preakness S. winner National Treasure (Quality Road) will be the one to catch once again for Bob Baffert breaking from post four. He is listed at 5-1 on the morning line.

Trainer Brad Cox will saddle a trio, led by 7-2 third choice and favored Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Angel of Empire (Classic Empire). The GI Arkansas Derby winner adds blinkers for the first time in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

“Flavien [Prat] came back after the Derby and immediately said to put blinkers on the horse,” Cox said. “I don't know that it would have made a big difference in winning the Derby, but I do know that he does train well in them. It's something to experiment with and see what happens. I'm very happy with where he's at.”

Cox will also tighten the girth on Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) (post seven; 10-1), a respectable fifth in the Derby after sitting close to a sharp early pace, and narrow Bath House Row S. runner-up Tapit Shoes (Tapit) (post one; 20-1). Cox won the 2021 Belmont with Essential Quality.

From the rail out, the complete field for the Belmont Stakes:

1-Tapit Shoes (Tapit) (20-1)

2-Tapit Trice (Tapit) (3-1)

3-Arcangelo (Arrogate) (8-1)

4-National Treasure (Quality Road) (5-1)

5-Il Miracolo (Gun Runner) (30-1)

6-Forte (Violence) (5-2)

7-Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) (10-1)

8-Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) (7-2)

9-Red Route One (Gun Runner) (15-1)

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Tapit Shoes Is Belmont-Bound for Brad Cox

Trainer Brad Cox has added a third GI Belmont S. contender to his lineup with Tapit Shoes, a stakes-placed son of Tapit who was last seen running second to Red Route One (Gun Runner) in the Bath House Row S. at Oaklawn Park on April 22.

“He's a pretty consistent workhorse, steady, and always gallops out well,” Cox said Thursday morning at Churchill Downs. “He gives us some confidence that he could like the mile and a half.”

Owned in partnership by Spendthrift Farm, Steve Landers Racing, Martin Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing, Kueber Racing, Big Easy Racing, Winners Win and Michael Caruso, the $300,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling purchase is a half-brother to GISW Cyberknife (Gun Runner).

Tapit Shoes broke his maiden by seven and a half lengths at Fair Grounds last December. This year, he ran fourth and then third against allowance company before his second-place finish in the Bath House Row S.

“He seems to be getting better with the more he does,” said Cox. “He took a move forward  in the Bath House Row S. and he's had plenty of time to recover from that. I think he obviously has to take another move forward and I'm hoping that he will.”

Cox's Belmont trio of Tapit Shoes, Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) and Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) are all set to work at Churchill Downs over the weekend before shipping to Belmont on Monday evening.

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