tap it to win | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Fore Left Could Upset Tiz The Law In Belmont Stakes

In the scheme of things, the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes being run in June doesn't seem that out of the normal. However, in the year of the pandemic the fact the race comes before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and will be run at the distance of one mile and one-eighth really makes a point things are out of whack this year. Just the same, a strong field of 10 lines up for the race which earns the top four finishers significant points on the Road to the Derby.

Tiz the Law leads the field in career earnings ($945,300) and accomplishments, having won four of five career races including the Grade 1 Florida Derby easily by four and one-quarter lengths when last seen. Sole Volante also has won four races, including the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and a strong win 10 days ago which was the ticket to ship from Florida to New York for this race.

Another horse proven in the top races for three-year-olds early this year is Modernist, winner of one of the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February. However, he had no excuse when third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent start. Likewise, Max Player won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at the distance of this year's Belmont, but hasn't been seen in the five and one-half months since then. Fore Left shipped half-way across the world for his three year old debut and came away with a strong win on the lead throughout in the Group 3 United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas in February.

Dr Post punched his ticket into the race with a victory in the Unbridled Stakes in late April. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who also saddles Farmington Road, the runner-up in the Oaklawn Stakes in April before a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May. Tap It to Win won impressively at Belmont just 16 days ago and appears to have a lot of talent.

Trainer Steve Asmussen, who recently became the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, saddles a pair. One of those is Pneumatic, who contested the pace for most of the race before tiring a bit and ending up third in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes last month. The other is Jungle Runner, who won the one turn Clever Trevor Stakes in November but who has been beaten a total of sixty-seven lengths in four starts since then.

Although Tiz the Law is the one to beat on paper, I'm going to take a shot with Fore Left to post the upset in the Belmont Stakes. The colt won the first two starts of his career last May and June, both sprints including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park, then after two months off he wasn't disgraced a bit when ending up third and a neck behind the runner-up in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. Following a poor effort in his two-turn debut in the American Pharoah Stakes last September, the southern California prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the colt returned to sprinting and won a minor stakes before trying an all-weather track and trying turf, finishing third then 10th in those races. Rested two months and put back on the dirt while shipping to Dubai for the United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas, Fore Left led from the start in a 16 horse field and held off all challengers early while drawing off late with some authority.

That effort showed he had matured nicely over the winter as he earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. The runner-up in that race returned to win a stakes the following month which flattered the form of Fore Left somewhat. Rested since then, Fore Left resumed training in April and shipped to Belmont the first week of June. Since then, he's put in two very strong morning drills over a track he already proved a liking for when winning last spring. Although Tap It to Win earned his last victory at Belmont leading from start to finish, I believe Fore Left will be sent for the lead by jockey Jose Ortiz and if allowed to get into a high cruising speed as he did in the 2000 Guineas, he could post the upset win in this field. He still has to beat Tiz the Law, with 117 and 112 figures earned in his last two starts, but considering this will be only his second start as a three year old, Fore Left may be able to do just that.

There's little question Tiz the Law is the horse to beat based on his body of work and particularly his two races this year. Rested two months after a poor third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, Tiz the Law was a powerful winner of the Holy Bull Stakes with a career-best and field high 117 Figure which remains the highest stakes winning figure by any thee year old in North America even four months later. Although he earned a lower 112 figure winning the Florida Derby, Tiz the Law did not need to run any faster after he opened up by a length in the stretch and jockey Manual Franco noted there were no challengers coming.

When a horse has earned two consecutive figures which are both higher than any other horse in the field, it's known as a “double advantage” and these horses win a high percentage of the time. Considering how well Tiz the Law ran off a similar layoff in the Holy Bull, and the colt has excellent tactical speed which is likely to have him in third or fourth position early and in range of the leaders at the critical stage of the race, Tiz the Law is a legitimate favorite and the most probable to win the race. The only proviso is how strong a horse like Fore Left may be if allowed an easy lead from the start as horses can get very courageous when allowed to run that way.

Sole Volante was my top choice in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on this page in February off his third place effort in his first dirt start prior to that. Not only had trainer Patrick Biancone already proved prescient with the move as Ete Indien had run very well a couple of weeks earlier, but Sole Volante had tremendous dam side breeding for running well in stakes on dirt. The other foal of the dam, Explode, was multiple stakes placed at distances from nine to 10 furlongs. Sole Volante rewarded those who bet him in the Sam F. Davis with a win at 5 to 1 odds and earned a career best dirt figure of 108. One month later in the Tampa Bay Derby, Sole Volante rallied from 11th of 12 early but couldn't catch the winner and ended up second. Taking three months off, Sole Volante was very impressive with a big burst of speed in the stretch to win 10 days ago. Even though that was not a stakes race, the 107 figure was stakes quality. Sole Volante is likely to be near the back of the pack early but if there is any sort of pace battle early or if the early fractions are faster than average, Sole Volante could be passing the field late for his second graded stakes win of the year.

Honorable mention goes to Tap It to Win and Dr Post as both are on the verge of breakthrough performances. Tap It to Win won a sprint in May in his three year old debut with a 99 figure, then improved to a 108 figure effort 16 days ago. That win came in a one-turn route at Belmont not much different from the Belmont Stakes. Because of the level of the race, there's no way to know the class of the horses he beat but as a son of Tapit and with the ground saving rail Tap It to Win may take the needed step forward to compete with these. Dr Post shows a similar pattern as he stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth off a sprint in his most recent start and won well. He improved from a 92 figure to 101 so he appears to be a bit behind Tap It to Win but three year olds still have potential to take a big leap forward from race to race, particularly lightly raced ones like Dr Post.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Farmington Road (100), Jungle Runner (85), Max Player (103), Modernist (94) and Pneumatic (98).

Win Contenders:
Fore Left
Tiz the Law
Sole Volante

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 20 – Post Time 5:42 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 2:45 – 6 PM E.T.

The post Equibase Analysis: Fore Left Could Upset Tiz The Law In Belmont Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Tap It to Win Living Up to Casse’s Expectations

Even back when Tap It to Win (Tapit) lost the GI Clairborne Breeders’ Futurity by 43 1/2 lengths and the Street Sense S. by 21 1/4 lengths, Mark Casse was telling owner Charlotte Weber and anyone else who would listen that the horse was special. On Saturday, the trainer could be proven right. After some twists and turns in his 2-year-old year, Tap It to Win has won his only two starts this year and doesn’t look to be in over his head in Saturday’s GI Belmont S., this year’s first leg of the Triple Crown.

“We have a legitimate chance,” said Casse, who is seeking his third straight win in the Triple Crown series.

Tap It to Win broke his maiden last year at Saratoga in his second career start and Casse started thinking GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The problem was that he didn’t have a lot of time to work with and Casse feared that might catch up to him. He wasn’t ready for what he faced in the Breeders’ Futurity.

“It was just too much for him to handle,” Casse said. “He misbehaved coming away from the gate. He ran off. He just did everything wrong. And so I just knew it was too bad to be true.”

The Street Sense was another misadventure. Tap It to Win hit himself on the ankle coming out of the gate, which led to an injury called a sequestrum, which required surgery to remove a piece of dead bone.

“He could hardly walk for a couple of weeks,” Casse said.

That was in the fall of last year and Casse had no designs on making the Triple Crown events. Tap It to Win still isn’t nominated for the Triple Crown and had to be supplemented into the Belmont at a cost of $15,000.

The colt’s rehab went as well as could be expected and Casse had him ready for a May 9 allowance race against fellow Florida breds at Gulfstream.

“When we sent him to run at Gulfstream, I called Tyler (Gaffalione) and told him you are going to ride a different horse today,” Casse said. “I told him that I’d be surprised if this horse gets beat.”

Tap it to Win won that day by 1 1/2 lengths and resurfaced at Belmont for a June 4 allowance. With John Velazquez aboard, he ran the best race of his career, leading every step of the way on his way to a five-length win. His 97 Beyer figures makes him very competitive in the Belmont.

“That was an extremely tough allowance race the other day,” Casse said. “I was amazed and Johnny was amazed that he could run as fast as he did and keep going. Johnny said after the race that he galloped out very strong. That John has so much confidence in him gives me even more confidence.”

After the allowance race, Casse’s first thought was that he would go next in the GI Woody Stephens S. at seven furlongs. But the Belmont lost a couple of top contenders due to injury and with his horse thriving, the trainer decided to give the horse a shot in the Grade I, $1-million event. Casse doesn’t know if he will win or not, but he’s certain that Tap It to Win will be the one to catch. He drew the one post and showed exceptional early speed in his last start.

“It didn’t matter what post position he was in, he was going to come out of there running,” Casse said. “He showed the other day he can run fast and keep running, so we are not going to change any tactics with him.”

Win or lose Saturday, the development of Tap It to Win has been something Casse isn’t taking for granted. He went from a horse that the trainer thought could win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to one who looked to be in way over his head in stakes company and wasn’t even nominated to the Triple Crown. Now, he is 6-1 on the morning line in a Triple Crown race.

“It’s been very gratifying,” he said. “Mrs. Weber means the world to me and she bred this horse. I’ve always told her he was special. It’s crazy how things work out sometimes. If it wasn’t for what’s going on in the world there’s no way he’d be in the position he is. We never would have made the Kentucky Derby and if the Belmont weren’t at a mile and an eighth instead of a mile and a half we never would have run in it. Everything worked out for him.”

They also worked out for Casse, who is in a unique position. He won last year’s GI Preakness S. with War of Will (War Front), which was his first win in the Triple Crown series. Three weeks later, he struck again, winning the Belmont with Sir Winston (Awesome Again). In this most unusual year for the Triple Crown, he’s back with another contender and a chance to win three in a row.

“I hadn’t even really thought about that until recently,” he said. “A couple of people have brought it up. Yes, it’s special. Any time you can win a classic it is special. I am very proud to have won two of them. To win three would be almost unthinkable. I think we have a legitimate chance to do that.”

Casse will find out Saturday just how good this horse is. If he turns out to be everything his trainer always thought he could be, he just might end up in the winner’s circle.

The post Tap It to Win Living Up to Casse’s Expectations appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Tiz The Law Draws Post Eight, Installed As 6-5 Morning Line Favorite For Belmont Stakes

Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law drew post eight of ten for Saturday's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, the first race of the 2020 Triple Crown season due to rescheduling caused by the global coronavirus pandemic. To be held over a shortened distance of nine furlongs, the Belmont will be run without spectators or owners in attendance.

Trained by Barclay Tagg and ridden by Manny Franco, Tiz the Law was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Belmont. The Sackatoga Stable-owned colt will be vying to take his connections on another whirlwind trip through the Triple Crown series, echoing their ride with Funny Cide in 2003.

Second choice at odds of 9-2 is Sole Volante, recent allowance winner at Gulfstream Park who will be running off just 10 days rest on Saturday. Trained by Patrick Biancone, the late-running son of Karakontie won the G3 Sam Davis at Tampa earlier this year, and will leave from post position two under jockey Luca Panici.

Unbridled Stakes winner Dr Post comes in as the 5-1 third choice for trainer Todd Pletcher, and will leave the gate from stall nine. Champion jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. will partner the Quality Road colt.

Tap It To Win drew the inside post and will be fourth choice at 6-1 on the morning line. Trained by Mark Casse, the recent allowance winner will get the services of jockey John Velazquez as he takes a major step up in class.

The entire field for the 2020 Belmont Stakes is as follows:

Tap It To Win (Velazquez, Casse) 6-1
Sole Volante (Panici, Biancone) 9-2
Max Player (Rosario, Rice) 15-1
Modernist (Alvarado, Mott) 15-1
Farmington Road (Castellano, Pletcher) 15-1
Fore Left (J. Ortiz, O'Neill) 30-1
Jungle Runner (Gutierrez, Asmussen) 50-1
Tiz the Law (Franco, Tagg) 9-5
Dr Post (I. Ortiz, Pletcher) 5-1
Pneumatic (Santana, Asmussen) 8-1

The post Tiz The Law Draws Post Eight, Installed As 6-5 Morning Line Favorite For Belmont Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Belmont Stakes May Lack Extra ‘Star Power,’ But Connections Are Excited To Kick Off Triple Crown

The past several weeks' three major defections from the 3-year-old season – Charlatan, Nadal, and Maxfield – may have turned this Saturday's Belmont Stakes into a smaller field, but connections were still quick to express their excitement for the the non-traditional first leg of the Triple Crown during an NTRA conference call Monday afternoon.

“My original thought was that it could potentially be a race that would oversubscribe, but now it looks like it's going to be more in the neighborhood of an eight or a nine-horse field, max,” said trainer Todd Pletcher, who plans to enter the pair of Dr. Post and Farmington Road. “That does surprise me a little bit, and I think that's partly due to some bad luck for some horses and also the uncertainty due to the timing of everything.”

The changing schedule of the Triple Crown, caused by the worldwide coronavirus pandemic, saw the Kentucky Derby pushed back from the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in September. The Preakness was rescheduled for the first Saturday in October, and the Belmont was pushed back three weeks from its originally-scheduled date, and is now the first leg of the classic series.

Rather than running the Belmont at the traditional 1 1/2-mile distance, the New York Racing Association made the decision to shorten it to nine furlongs, turning the “Test of the Champion” into a one-turn affair.

“I had spoken to people three or four weeks ago, and said that in many ways I felt I thought the Belmont was going to be this year's Kentucky Derby, because its the first time that the best horses in training were going to be meeting each other, the West Coast and East Coast and in-between,” echoed Jack Knowlton, co-owner of likely favorite Tiz the Law. “Clearly because of the injuries in Bob's two horses, and now with Maxfield out, there isn't the star power that we all expected.

“But, I feel good about the race being a mile and an eighth. We know that Tiz the Law can handle Belmont, he trains on it, he won the G1 Champagne there. I think the configuration, with a long run down the backside, Manny (Franco's) gonna have an opportunity to put him where he wants to put him. He'll be able to make the run that he's made in all four of his wins, just kind of stalking a little bit off the pace, then moving forward around the turn and winning the race in the stretch.”

It is not yet clear whether any owners will be able to attend the Belmont Stakes, which Knowlton especially acknowledged was a new challenge. His Sackatoga Stable group became famous when they won the 2003 Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide, after riding several school busses from their hotel to Churchill Downs with a 53-person entourage.

This time around, the majority of the Sackatoga group plans to watch the Belmont Stakes from a restaurant patio in Saratoga.

“Funny Cide was a once in a lifetime for an outfit like ours,” Knowlton said. “To have it happen again, it looks like lightning really has struck twice… so the school bus will be reserved for Louisville, and we're hopeful we will be able to have owners and a number of fans at Churchill.”

Meanwhile, Knowlton has all the faith in the world in veteran trainer Barclay Tagg.

“Barclay's been in the game for 50 years, and he's got all the experience you need,” Knowlton said. “He doesn't get horses like Funny Cide or Tiz the Law very often, but when he does, he makes the most of it.”

Looking to upset the favorite will be a recent allowance winner trained by Mark Casse, who also took time to speak to media during Monday's teleconference. The 3-year-old son of Tapit broke his maiden at Saratoga back in August, and Casse immediately started thinking about bigger and better things.

“After he broke his maiden, I told (owner) Mrs. Weber, 'I think this colt could win the Breeders' Cup this fall, but it's going to be a bit of a rush, and we're going to have to run him two turns in his next start,'” Casse recalled.

His first two-turn race, the Breeders' Futurity, was a bit of a disaster when he missed the start, rushed up and fought with jockey Tyler Gaffalione, and faded to finish 10th. Trying again in the listed Street Sense Stakes, Tap It To Win was gashed up at the start and again finished at the rear of the field.

“He couldn't hardly walk for a couple weeks after, and it turns out a piece of bone actually died, so we had to operate on him,” Casse explained. After taking the winter off, Tap It To Win “came back with a vengeance, and with a much better attitude. He's always shown, from the time we got him, that he was something exceptional.”

He won his first start off the layoff, and his second start on June 4 resulted in a five-length romp at Belmont Park.

“Johnny (Velazquez, jockey) is the one that kind of convinced me for sure that the Belmont is the way to go.” Casse said. “He felt like he finished with something left, and he said he galloped out very strong.”

The Belmont will be the colt's third race off the layoff, and Tap It To Win could be poised for a career-best performance.

Meanwhile, Pletcher's pair of Farmington Road and Dr Post, both sired by Quality Road, are also preparing well for Saturday's big test. The lightly-raced Dr Post got a “good education” last out when he won the listed Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Pletcher said, and should be close enough to the pace to make his presence felt.

Farmington Road hasn't shown the same success rate on the track as his stablemate, and Pletcher admitted that the 1 1/2-mile distance might have been more his style.

“He's come close to a breakthrough performance, and he would appreciate a good honest pace up front,” Pletcher said. “On paper, it looks like it should have solid pace. Because of the one-turn dimension, horses lay a little closer to the pack because the first turn doesn't spread them out… that's to the benefit of Farmington Road because he won't be so far out of contention early.”

Also expected for Saturday's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes are: Jungle Runner, Max Player, Modernist, Pnuematic, and Sole Volante.

The post Belmont Stakes May Lack Extra ‘Star Power,’ But Connections Are Excited To Kick Off Triple Crown appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post