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Favorite Smiley Sobotka Likes The Distance, But Sam Davis Foes Carry High Hopes On Derby Trail

An all-star cast of jockeys and trainers will take a backseat to 12 talented but inexperienced 3-year-olds Saturday in the 41st running of the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, the first of two “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points races at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Sam F. Davis is one of four stakes on a 12-race Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card set to begin at 11:50 a.m. Scheduled as the 11th race, it will be preceded (in order) by the Grade 3, $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf course; the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, at a mile-and-40-yards on the main track; and the Grade 3, $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, for older fillies and mares at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf.

Approximate post time for the Sam F. Davis is 5:02 p.m. There is a carryover pool of $9,057.70 into the Super High-5 wager in the first race.

The Albaugh Family Stables, LLC-owned colt Smiley Sobotka has been established as the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Sam F. Davis, run at a distance of a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the main track. Trained by Dale Romans, Smiley Sobotka will be ridden by Daniel Centeno while breaking from the No. 5 post position.

Smiley Sobotka won at the Sam F. Davis distance when he broke his maiden in October at Keeneland. He finished second at the same distance in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs.

The Sam F. Davis awards points on a 10-4-2-1 scale to the first four finishers toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 1 at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and future Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher each have two horses entered in the Sam F. Davis. Mott's runners are breeder-owner Michael Shanley's colt Nova Rags, who won the 7-furlong Pasco Stakes here on Jan. 16, and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations' colt Candy Man Rocket, an eye-popping maiden special weight winner on Jan. 9 at Gulfstream Park.

Nova Rags will again be ridden by Samy Camacho. Junior Alvarado is the pilot on Candy Man Rocket.

Pletcher, who has won the Sam F. Davis a record six times (no other trainer has won it more than twice), will counter with Known Agenda, a St. Elias Stables-owned homebred who finished third on Dec. 5 in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in his most recent start, and Millean, a Jan. 10 maiden claiming winner at Gulfstream Park owned by Donegal Racing.

Velazquez will ride Known Agenda. Roberto Alvarado, Jr., has been named on Millean.

Smiley Sobotka and seven others will vie to keep the Mott and Pletcher-trained sophomores from the winner's circle, but Mott suggested Friday the biggest surprise in the Sam F. Davis would be a result that winds up surprising hardly anyone.

The race appears that wide-open.

“Both of our horses have been training well, and we're anxiously awaiting the outcome to see if we have horses good enough to go on and come back for the (Grade 2 Lambholm South) Tampa Bay Derby (on March 6),” Mott said today from his south Florida base. “It's a big test for both horses, and we have no great expectations. Candy Man Rocket hasn't been beyond 6 ½ furlongs and Nova Rags hasn't raced around two turns yet, so they need to be tested to find out how far they want to go.”

At this early stage, there are no true standouts entering the race. The only stakes winner in the field other than Nova Rags is Florida-bred gelding Boca Boy, who captured the restricted Florida Thoroughbred Breeders' and Owners' Association Florida Sire In Reality Stakes on Sept. 26 at Gulfstream. Antonio Gallardo rides Boca Boy.

Mott, who has also entered 4-year-old filly New York Girl in the Lambholm South Endeavour and Florida-bred Jade Empress in the Suncoast, hopes having won the Pasco here will be an extra advantage for Nova Rags.

“It's a safe racetrack and it's a very challenging racetrack,” Mott said. “It's deep and tiring, and you see some horses that don't run well on it. So with Nova Rags, it's a good thing he has that race (the Pasco) over the surface.”

Hidden Stash, who won his last two races as a 2-year-old, both around two turns, will break from the No. 1 post under jockey Hector Diaz, Jr. Among the others, trainer Patrick Biancone, who won last year's Sam F. Davis with Sole Volante, will attempt a repeat with Lucky Law, and George “Rusty” Arnold, II takes a shot with Runway Magic, to be ridden by Leparoux.

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TVG Broadcasting Live From Tampa, Santa Anita This Weekend

TVG, America's horse racing network, will be live on-site at Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita. Graded stakes races from coast to coast, including prep races for the Kentucky Derby (G1) – the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) from Tampa Bay Downs and the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) from Aqueduct – will highlight the weekend coverage.

Todd Schrupp, Britney Eurton and Christina Blacker will be reporting live from Santa Anita with exclusive interviews and analysis of the ten-race card which features four graded stakes races – the $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes (G3), the $200,000 San Marcos Stakes (G3), the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) and the $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes (G3). The San Vicente Stakes, a seven-furlong contest for 3-year-olds, has drawn a field of six including Freedom Fighter, an impressive maiden winner for trainer Bob Baffert. The son of Violence has drawn the inside post under jockey Drayden Van Dyke.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby will run through Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday and TVG's Gabby Gaudet will be trackside with expanded coverage of the twelve-race

Festival Preview Day card. The featured race is the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), a stepping stone to the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 6. The Sam F. Davis Stakes will offer offers 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers and has drawn an overflow field of thirteen contenders including two for trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher will send out Known Agenda, third in the Remsen Stakes (G3) with John Velazquez aboard and Milean, a recent maiden winner with Robby Alvarado, Jr. in the irons.

TVG will also be broadcasting another prep race on the road to the Kentucky Derby – the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) from Aqueduct which will also offer 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers. The Withers Stakes has drawn a contentious field of nine including California-bred Capo Kane, winner of the Jerome Stakes on New Year's Day. Trained by Harold Wyner, the son of Street Sense will be ridden by Dylan Davis.

In addition to racing from Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita, TVG will be featuring racing from Oaklawn Park, Gulfstream, Aqueduct and more. Fans can tune in on TVG, TVG2 and the Watch TVG app which is available on Amazon Fire, Roku and connected Apple TV devices.

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Special Princess Launches Kentucky Oaks Dreams In Saturday’s Suncoast Stakes

Florida-bred 3-year-old filly Special Princess has spent much of her brief career proving the naysayers wrong. Her next opportunity to confound the experts comes in Saturday's $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, part of a lucrative Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card at Tampa Bay Downs.

The mile-and-40-yard Suncoast on the main track is the ninth race on a 12-race card beginning at 11:50 a.m. Special Princess, who dead-heated for the victory in the 7-furlong Gasparilla Stakes on Jan. 16 with Adios Trippi, will break from the outside No. 10 post position under jockey Ademar Santos.

Special Princess is owned by her breeder, Jim DiMare's J D Farms, and trained by Walter Woodard. The daughter of Bahamian Squall-Indy Crown, by Shaniko, breezed 3 furlongs Tuesday over the Oldsmar strip in 37 1/5 seconds with Santos aboard.

“We just blew her out a little to keep her on her toes,” said the 58-year-old Woodard, who began training on his own in 1998. “She has enough miles on her and enough bottom that she didn't need to go any farther. She is a very easy filly to train, and she's done everything I've asked her to do.”

The Suncoast Stakes is a “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” race, awarding qualifying points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale for the April 30 Longines Kentucky Oaks. The Suncoast is one of four stakes worth a combined $750,000 in purse money.

Saturday's other stakes, all Grade 3 events, are the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points race for 3-year-olds going a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the main track; the $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward racing a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf; and the $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf.

Just where Special Princess fits into the proceedings will be revealed, but Woodard knows the Suncoast will provide the toughest competition, top to bottom, of her career. She is 8-1 on the morning line, with Gulf Coast, from the barn of Rodolphe Brisset, the 5-2 favorite.

Besides Gulf Coast, who won the Cash Run Stakes on Jan. 1 at Gulfstream Park after finishing second here on Dec. 5 in the Sandpiper Stakes, likely contenders include trainer Ken McPeek's well-regarded Roll Up Mo Money, to be ridden by Samy Camacho; Feeling Mischief, a Michael Campbell-trainee who won the Sandpiper Stakes and was third in the Gasparilla; Il Malocchio, another McPeek charge who won the Victorian Queen Stakes on turf last September at Woodbine; and trainer Eddie Kenneally's Honorifique, second in the Cash Run.

And, that's not even mentioning entrants trained by Hall of Fame members Bill Mott and Mark Casse.

But it's horse racing, and Special Princess might have another surprise in store. The bettors ignored Special Princess in her career debut in August at Gulfstream Park, where she finished third in a nine-horse field at odds of 54-1. She was 24-1 when she broke her maiden on Oct. 28 at Gulfstream Park West. And she was mostly an afterthought in the Gasparilla, going off at 13-1. Adios Trippi appeared to have the race won before Special Princess staged a furious rally on the outside to create the deadlock.

“Saturday is a lot tougher race, because this starts the push toward the Kentucky Oaks,” Woodard said. “But this is what you have to do in life – keep stepping up. I'm confident she can run with this bunch. She wouldn't be there if I didn't think she belonged.

“I know she beat some nice horses (in the Gasparilla). I think she is definitely going to be able to run longer, and that Ademar will be able to settle her on the backside, get her motor revved up and come running. Everybody is going to know she is there, I'm pretty sure,” Woodard said.

The Gasparilla was Woodard's first stakes victory as a trainer. “I'm the small-town guy going in. But I grew up with Mark Casse when I moved to Florida (from Marietta, Ga.) out of high school to work for his father, Norman Casse, at Cardinal Hill Farm (in Ocala).” Woodard said. “I've been around these guys at the sales and big racetracks, and they wake up at 4 a.m. just like I do, so that doesn't bother me.”

Woodard, who also worked at Ocala Stud Farm for about 6 or 7 years before heading to the racetrack in 1998, has a quick reply when asked how he has managed to stay in the profession with only a few dozen victories to show as his on-track accomplishments.

“ 'Cause this is what I do for a living, and it's the greatest game in the world,” he said. “Forget my record. I've been doing this my whole life. I've worked on horse farms, galloped horses, then I got into pinhooking (buying weanlings or yearlings, developing them and selling them for a profit). I've been doing this my whole life, I'm still in the business and I'll be in the business until the end.

“I hustle and work hard, and racing has treated me very well.”

Woodard manages a 12-horse stable at Tampa Bay Downs. On Jan. 16, in the race before the Gasparilla, he sent out another J D Farms-owned 3-year-old filly, Peaceful Way, to win a maiden claiming event with Santos aboard. Peaceful Way is entered in Friday's first race.

From sheer, unadulterated joy to the mountaintop. So what if he had to share the view?

“Special Princess is probably the best horse I've trained,” Woodard said. “She makes my job real simple. I'm just fortunate to get to train her.”

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Equibase Analysis: Mott Holding A Pair Of Aces In Sam F. Davis

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the local prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks from today and brings together a field of 12 (plus one also-eligible) attempting to become one of the betting favorites going into that race as well as to earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.”

Only five of the 13 have ever run in stakes races. Of those, Nova Rags is one of two which are stakes winners, having won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month around one turn, not the two-turn trip like the Sam F. Davis. Boca Boy is another with a stakes win, that coming last September in the In Reality Stakes. He is returning from a four and one-half month layoff since that race.

Smiley Sobotka finished second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall around two-turns but is returning to the races following more than two months off and facing many who have run more recently. Known Agenda finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last December and is yet another coming into the race off a layoff. Runway Magic finished third in the Limehouse Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park, a one-turn race and rounds out those which have competed in stakes before today.

Then there is a trio of recent winners on dirt who could step up to the task. This trio includes local winner Ricochet, impressive nine length winner Candy Man Rocket and Hidden Stash, who is another coming back from more than three months off. Millean won his most recent race last month but in a maiden claiming race so appears a bit overmatched. Joe Man Joe and Lucky Law finished second and first, respectively, in their most recent starts. Both were around two-turns but were on turf so it remains to be seen if they can transfer that form to dirt and improve to be competitive in a stakes as well. Last Investment and also-eligible Tiz Tact Toe round out the field as horses who have yet to break their maidens in seven combined starts.

Candy Man Rocket gets slight preference among three main win contenders in this year's Sam F. Davis Stakes, although he has never raced around two turns and has only a maiden win to his credit. I think this colt has tremendous upside based on earning a field high 98 Equibase Speed Figure in his nine length maiden win last month sprinting at Gulfstream Park. Considering this will be only his third career start, Candy Man Rocket has every right to continue to improve and that means his opponents would have to improve doubly in order to beat him even if he simply repeats the effort. There is little doubt Candy Man Rocket can do just that around two-turns as a son of Candy Ride, whose has had 12 of his 34 foals win stakes races for three year olds over the last five years. Some of those are big names such as Vekoma and Gun Runner. Then there's the prowess his Hall-of-Fame trainer has in recognizing talent. Over the last five years, when trainer Bill Mott raises a horse off a maiden win to a stakes race, his charges have finished first or second in 10 of 20 tries. All those factors lead me to believe Candy Man Rocket can pull off the upset in this race.

Mott also saddles Nova Rags, one of just two stakes winners in the field. Nova Rags returned from two months off last month and won the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs. Although the 85 is well behind the 98 figure his stablemate earned one week earlier, Nova Rags has every right to improve second off the layoff and around two turns. Sired by 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, Nova Rags is out of the Smart Strike mare Wishful Splendor, whose sons and daughters have won 17 of 73 dirt route races, including 2011 Indiana Oaks winner Juanita. To be ridden by Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Sammy Camacho, Nova Rags can take a big step forward in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and toss his name into the ring as a top three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Ricochet is a two-turn winner at Tampa, a claim none of the other 12 horses in this race can make. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time at the end of November, Ricochet opened up by two and one-half lengths in the stretch only to be nailed right on the wire by a head. Improving to a career-best 94 figure which is the second best in the field by far, Ricochet made short work of the field in December when winning by eight lengths. On a pattern for another step forward, if Candy Man Rocket does not improve as expected, Ricochet would be no surprise winning this race.

After that group of three, there are four more which deserve honorable mention – Hidden Stash, Known Agenda, Lucky Law and Smiley Sobotka, each having good reasons to consider them as contenders but each also with slight question marks. Hidden Stash improved to a career best 89 figure when last seen at the end of November, bringing his record around two-turns to a perfect two-for-two. However, coming back from two months off he would need to be in tip-top shape to pick up where he left off. Known Agenda won a nine furlong race in November, the second start of his career, earning an 86 figure in the process. He improved to 88 although a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes in December and if this was his second start off a layoff, not his first, I think he would be a top contender. Similarly, Smiley Sobotka improved nicely in his first route and second career start in October to win then finished second of nine in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (with a 90 figure) after opening up by a couple of lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. He's been working fast but there is always the concern about needing a race before running well enough to win around two turns off a layoff. Lucky Law stretched out to two turns off a runner-up effort and won nicely last month. Both races were on turf so he would need to transfer that form to dirt and improve off the 83 figure earned in that last start. However, trainer Patrick Biancone successfully transitioned horses to dirt on the Road to the Derby last year with both Ete Indien and Sole Volante.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Boca Boy (78), Joe Man Joe (89), Millean (84), Last Investment (81), Tiz Tact Toe (78) and Runway Magic (92).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
Nova Rags
Ricochet

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