Tampa Bay Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

The Week in Review: Tapit Trice Has Grown Up

Tapit Trice (Tapit) won the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby in his stakes debut back on Mar. 11, but that horse was never going to win the GI Kentucky Derby. Yes, he had become a Grade II winner, is by Tapit, cost $1.3 million at Keeneland September sale and is in the capable hands of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. But the Tapit Trice that won the Tampa Bay Derby looked like an immature horse who had yet to figure the game out. Combine that with the fact that he beat a soft group of horses and earned a Beyer figure of only 88 and his chances to win a race as tough and as demanding as the Derby seemed slim.

Which meant there was room for improvement and that he had to getter better. It happened. In Saturday's GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, this was a much better version of Tapit Trice. He looked like a horse that can beat stablemate Forte (Violence) and everyone else in the Derby.

It was evident from the start. At Tampa, Tapit Trice walked out of the gate and was so sluggish early on that he found himself in last within four or five strides of the horses leaving the gate. Down the backstretch, he was 11th out of 12 and 8 1/4 lengths behind the leader. In the Blue Grass, he broke with the field, losing nothing at the start. He still didn't have the type of speed that could carry him to the front, but neither would he sluggishly drop back. At the first point of call in the Blue Grass, he was fourth, just 2 1/2 lengths off of the lead being set by Clear the Air (Ransom the Moon).

In the Tampa Bay Derby, jockey Luis Saez figured out early on that he needed to get close to the leaders. At the half-mile pole, he already had Tapit Trice under a drive and, at least initially, got no response. It was a much different scenario in the Blue Grass. Beginning in the run down the backstretch, Tapit Trice made a sharp move and seemed to be doing it on his own. He went from eighth to fourth in a matter of about 40 yards.

Tapit Trice looked beaten on the far turn at Tampa and didn't do any real running until the final eighth. It was good enough for the win, which came over Classic Car Wash (Noble Bird). Note that he beat the same horse by 16 1/2 lengths in the Blue Grass.

Fast forward four weeks and Tapit Trice continued to make progress until drawing even with Verifying (Justify) at the top of the Blue Grass stretch. Verifying comes out of the loaded Brad Cox barn, finished second in the GI Champagne S. and romped in an Oaklawn allowance before finishing fourth in the GII Rebel S. He was a worthy foe and he put up a fight. Tapit Trice got by him in the final sixteenth, showing the type of determination that is important in any race and extra important in the Kentucky Derby.

This time his Beyer number was a 99. That's just two points behind Two Phil's (Hard Spun), whose 101 Beyer from the Jeff Ruby Steaks is best among horses headed to the Derby. It's also faster than any number Forte has ever run.

That doesn't mean that Tapit Trice has to win the Derby. It does mean that, after the Blue Grass, he has to be considered a major contender. He's fast enough and has the right pedigree. But most importantly, he'll come in to the race off of the best performance of his career and everything points to him continuing to get better.

At Santa Anita, Another Big Effort Out of a Japanese Horse

Practical Move (Practical Joke) won the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby Saturday, which was a surprise to no one. After his win the in GII San Felipe S., he looked like the best 3-year-old in California.

But what not many expected was the huge effort by runner-up Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), who finished second, losing by just a nose. Even with all the success Japanese horses have had around the globe of late, it looked like Mandarin Hero was up against it at Santa Anita. While he was 4-for-5 lifetime, he had been racing on Japan's National Association of Racing (NAR) circuit. The NAR circuit is the lesser circuit in Japan and the horses that race at those tracks are supposed to be inferior to the horses who run at the Japan Racing Association (JRA) tracks.

So, if Mandarin Hero from the NAR can come that close to beating one of the top 3-year-old colts in the U.S., what does that say about Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), who looked so good when winning the G2 UAE Derby? Derma Sotogake, who also finished third in the G3 Saudi Derby, came to the Middle East after winning three straight at JRA tracks.

The Japanese will also be represented by Continuar (Jpn) (Drefrong). A JRA horse, he earned an automatic spot in the Derby with his win in the Cattleya S. He was third, beaten 10 lengths, by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby.

As for Mandarin Hero, he may not get into the Derby. With 40 points, he currently sits 24th on the points standings for the race and will need a few defections to get in.

A Stunner in the Wood Memorial

There are too many Kentucky Derby prep races and not enough top 3-year-olds to go around, so one of the races had to suffer. And it's the GII Wood Memorial. For decades it was one of the most important prep races for the Derby, but is now mired in a slump that goes back 20 years. The last Wood starter to win the Derby was Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) in 2003. Since then, 40 Wood starters have run in the Derby and not one crossed the wire among the top three. In 2019, Wood winner Tacitus (Tapit) was awarded third due to the disqualification of Maximum Security.

In 2017, the Wood Memorial was deservedly downgraded to a Grade II.

Things don't figure to change this year. It was an exciting race with three horses separated by a nose and a head at the wire, but not a race that should inspire much confidence when it comes to the top three. Not when the race was won by a 59-1 shot in Lord Miles (Curlin). He was a dull sixth on the GIII Holy Bull S. and didn't do much better when fifth, beaten 5 3/4 lengths by Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby. He looks like a 50-1 shot in the Derby.

Back at Keeneland, Another Big Win for the Computer Players

We've all seen it happen hundreds of times, the odds plunge on a horse after the gates open and the horse goes on to win. But it's not something anyone should grow complacent about, not when the sport has no answer to the problem that is the computer players pouring huge sums into the pools at the very last second.

There was a glaring example of this Saturday at Keeneland in the GIII Commonwealth S. With the field loaded, eventual winner Here Mi Song (Cross Traffic) was 19-1. About five seconds after the field left the gate, his odds fell to 12-1. Then, 32 seconds after the start of the race, his odds changed again, falling to 11-1. He paid $25.60, yet I imagine any normal player who had a win bet on him felt more cheated than victorious.

It's time for more tracks to do what NYRA did, which was to effectively ban the computer players from the win pools. That won't keep them from pounding the other pools, but will take care of the problem of having their core customers grow irate every time a horse goes on to win after their odds plummeted after the race has started.

NY Horseplayers Shut Out Again on Easter

We've got the dumbest rule in horse racing for you. In New York on Easter, you can buy alcohol at a store or go to a bar. You can play the lottery, wager on pro sports and go to a casino. You can even go to the Resort's World casino in Queens, which is under the same roof as Aqueduct. But you can't bet on a horse.

It's not just that the New York tracks can't race on Easter. It's that all betting on all racing is shut down. The ADW customer is not allowed to place a bet on any tracks anywhere. Like someone in the fourth at Gulfstream? Too bad.

This goes back to 1973 when Sunday racing was legalized in New York, but several politicians were opposed to this based on religious reasons. In order to pass Sunday racing, a compromise had to be reached and it included not allowing any betting on the ponies on Easter and Palm Sunday. In 2015, the Palm Sunday ban was lifted, but not the Easter ban. It lives on, as ridiculous as it is.

The post The Week in Review: Tapit Trice Has Grown Up appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now

We've taken the plunge into the deeper end of the prep pool for the GI Kentucky Derby. Five nine-furlong stakes each awarding 100 qualifying points are scheduled over the next two Saturdays, after which this list will expand to the Top 20.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 90.

The further 'TDN Rising Star' and 2-year-old champ Forte goes in his sophomore campaign, the more favorably he compares to Nyquist, who was the last winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile (and only the second Juvenile winner ever) to score in the Kentucky Derby. Each was put on a two-prep path at age three, consisting of an early March stakes victory followed by a try in the GI Florida Derby.

Where they differ, though, is in the level of difficulty of their respective Florida Derbies. In 2016, the connections of Nyquist took a gamble by shipping their colt cross-country from his California base to chase a $1-million Florida sales-grad bonus offered by Fasig-Tipton. Despite being the undefeated 2-year-old champ, the 6-5 Nyquist wasn't even favored in the Florida Derby (Mohaymen was at 4-5). But Nyquist wired the field commandingly, cementing favoritism in Louisville.

Forte, by contrast, will race over a Gulfstream surface over which he's already won emphatically, and he will be getting a considerable break in terms of competition. The draw for Saturday's Florida Derby landed him in post 11, but none of the 11 horses entered against him have ever been ranked in TDN's Top 12, and only one has ever won a stakes.

Beyond the obstacle of an outer post in a large field, the race, on paper at least, gives off a “damned if he does, damned if he doesn't” vibe that the champ will be up against.

If Forte trounces the field, it'll be reasoned he was supposed to beat up on such an overmatched crew based on his established gravitas as the divisional kingpin. The tall, lanky stalker has pasted nearly all comers over a six-race career that dates to last May 27 and includes only one forgivable loss in a Saratoga sprint stakes. None of the visual takeaways of his stretch runs offer evidence that he won't be able to handle pressure while negotiating longer distances.

If Forte runs well but narrowly loses, the result will likely elicit a positive-leaning connotation, along the lines that he wasn't fully cranked for the effort with his main goal being four weeks out.

But if Forte finishes off the board with no excuse? Yikes. He'll suddenly be perceived as vulnerable for the first time and the proverbial barn door will be knocked off its hinges by the crush of contenders rushing in to fill the Derby void.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

They don't drape a blanket of roses atop your shoulders on the first Saturday in May for looking like the most improved colt on the Derby contenders list at the end of March. But if they did, Practical Move would be this year's ideal fit.

This son of Practical Joke's progression toward the Apr. 8 GI Santa Anita Derby gives the impression of an ocean wave that did not at first appear menacing when in the distance, but now that it's nearing a crest, look out.

This Tim Yakteen trainee started five times in a four-month span at age two and his form in those races might have been shaded by running into some fairly accomplished foes while encountering repeated trip trouble.

A 10-1 upset in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity closed out this robust-framed colt's juvenile campaign. But Practical Move opened eyes with a 12-point Beyer jump when winning the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 4, uncorking a professional inside run despite enduring early bumping, a rank horse on the clubhouse turn, and a momentum stall on the far bend while jockey Ramon Vazquez patiently waited for an opening.

If you want a Derby horse who rates as “flashy,” look elsewhere. But if you lean toward a level-headed prospect who is quick enough to prowl behind strong fractions while having enough stamina to stick around late, Practical Move just might be your type.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW,4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was back on the Palm Beach Downs work tab Friday, breezing a half-mile in :49.82 (11/31) nearly two weeks after closing with a desperate rush to win the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (88 Beyer).

From several perspectives–his dawdling break, the questionable quality of the competition, the four-point Beyer regression off his previous win–the Tampa excursion was not an artistic triumph for Tapit Trice.

Yet considering that this colt overcame self-inflicted trip adversity and closed capably through a final sixteenth clocked in an impressive :6.14, Tapit Trice remains poised to put forth a more polished version of the athletic prowess he displayed in his first three career races. That chance will come in his final Derby tune-up, the Apr. 8 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Only one horse has ever parlayed wins in both the Tampa and Kentucky Derbies–Street Sense in 2007. Street Sense, like Tapit Trice is being pointed to do, also attempted the Blue Grass S. in the interim. He was second, losing by a nose in a four-horse photo.

With Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) never firing when sixth as the beaten 3-2 favorite in this past Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby, it appears that Tapit Trice is now the best Kentucky Derby shot for jockey Luis Saez.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

The GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby is shaping up as a showdown between the Nos. 2 and 4 headliners on this list. While Practical Move brings experience, this son of Candy Ride looms as a speed-centric threat who could have a decided advantage in a short field if the race comes up light on entries.

Geaux Rocket Ride was narrowly favored in the betting for the GII San Felipe S. and he gamely forced the issue on the front end of a high-tempo pace yet still managed to stay on determinedly in the final furlong to hold second even when it was clear that Practical Move had him beat.

In just two lifetime starts, Geaux Rocket Ride has paired 92 and 96 Beyers, and his transition out of a MSW sprint wiring to an off-Lasix stakes route was about as smooth as his connections could have hoped for. Note that the second- and fourth-place runners out of his Jan. 29 victory both came back to win their next starts, lending credibility to that sizzling debut.

Geaux Rocket Ride worked six furlongs in 1:13 flat Sunday at Santa Anita (2/6), after which his Hall-of-Fame trainer, Richard Mandella, quipped, “The rockets are ready to fire.”

5) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm returns to the Top 12 off his runner-up try in the Louisiana Derby and I'm taking an ambitious gamble by leapfrogging him all the way up to No. 5 considering this colt hasn't won a race in nearly nine months.

Last summer, trainer Steve Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy.”

But Asmussen expressed faith that this son of Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) would “stretch out beautifully” over time. Unfortunately, that didn't happen during his juvenile season, because after a blowout MSW win at the Spa over seven furlongs, Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons. After a second-place effort going a mile in an Oaklawn allowance Feb. 19 for his 2023 debut, he resurfaced at Fair Grounds Saturday.

Trying to chase a lone-speed pacemaker getting away with soft splits, Disarm was at a tactical disadvantage. His trip was further compromised by being caught behind the heels of a stablemate for most of his inside journey, and his stride stalled at several points during the race. Yet he still closed with purpose and earned a 90 Beyer for the effort.

Being up against the grain of a speed-favoring track also hurt his chances in the Louisiana Derby. There were 11 dirt races on the Mar. 25 card at Fair Grounds. Four were won in wire-to-wire fashion, six were won by pace-pressers who raced just off the lead, and one was won by a mid-pack stalker. Closers like Disarm got completely shut out. He'll be a live sleeper at well over 20-1 in Louisville.

6) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (Ky); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the
GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate, a $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic, will bear the burden of favoritism in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, and deservedly so.

He's the controlling speed on paper and is exiting a difficult trip in the Feb. 25 GII Rebel S., in which he got bounced around at the break, advanced into contention, then had to check late. Still, he managed third (90 Beyer). Jockey John Velazquez rides back.

A big horse with a long stride, Reincarnate started his career with two turf tries (both seconds). He was then second in his dirt debut, and finally broke through in try number four at Del Mar Nov. 25, after which he took the Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., dueling all the way on the inside and earning a 95 Beyer at somewhat surprising 16-1 odds.

Reincarnate has never been off the board from six starts, all at a mile or longer, so the stamina base is there. The Arkansas Derby will offer a sharper picture of where this colt stands in terms of honing his chief tactical weapon, which is front-end force.

7) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun-Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Figuring out whether or not nine-furlong Tapeta form will translate to 10-furlong dirt success is a bit like trying to understand voodoo. But the 101-Beyer win by Two Phil's in Saturday's GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks stamps him as an intriguing mid-tier threat on the Derby totem pole, and he has growing appeal as a 4-for-8 closer/stalker whose strengths are versatility and adaptability.

This son of Hard Spun has taken a somewhat unconventional path to Derby relevancy, having started as a 2-year-old at Colonial and Canterbury before breaking through with a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds in the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill, which came over a sealed and sloppy track.

After running second in the GII Lecomte S. and third in the GII Risen Star S., trainer Larry Rivelli took a risk by opting for a start over Tapeta at Turfway, over which Two Phil's had never raced.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, jockey Jareth Loveberry rated this colt three wide into the first turn, patiently kept him parked outside while sixth down the backstretch, then let Two Phil's unwind four deep through the far bend, always shadowing the move of the 1.7-1 fave Major Dude (Bolt d'Oro) before reeling in that rival without much of a fight in upper stretch.

True, no one else was firing down the lane to offer a fresh challenge. But Two Phil's finished up respectably under his own power, leaving the impression that he wasn't entirely sapped by the effort.

Two Phil's will train at Rivelli's Hawthorne-based stable, where he will remain under the radar until Derby day gets closer.

8) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (Ky); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

With the calendar on the cusp of flipping into April, Todd Pletcher has emerged as the deepest-stocked Derby trainer, with three colts ranked within the top eight on this list.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns is evolving into a no-nonsense frontrunner who knows his job and gets into gear without drama, having now handled the footing of three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds) and shipping to each track from Pletcher's winter training base at Palm Beach Downs without apparent difficulty.

This Uncle Mo colt was assigned a 95 Beyer for his Louisiana Derby wiring. The win represents a nice progression through only 10 weeks of racing experience. But peering more closely at his 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles does raise legitimate questions.

That final time is the slowest in four years since the Louisiana Derby got elongated from nine furlongs, and it's nearly a full second off the previous slowest clocking of 1:56.47. Granted, that's only a small sample. But also consider that Kingsbarns was virtually unchallenged through a tepid pace, and the speed-favoring track at Fair Grounds Mar. 25 definitely played to his running style. Both the pace pressure and the tempo will be ratcheted up considerably in the Kentucky Derby.

The Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby will have an indirect impact on Kingsbarns. Flavien Part, who rode this colt for the first time in New Orleans, has a competing call aboard Geaux Rocket Ride in that Santa Anita stakes, meaning he might have to choose between mounts at some point.

9) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 2nd GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

The presence of No. 1-ranked Forte isn't what re-routed Rocket Can from the Florida prep path to Saturday's Arkansas Derby. This Into Mischief gray is owned by North Little Rock's Frank Fletcher, who is seeking his first victory in Oaklawn's premier stakes, a win he covets dearly because of the local connection to his home-state track.

Trainer Bill Mott has no problem accommodating an Oaklawn try by shipping Rocket Can to Hot Springs, and in the grand scheme of things, evading the formidable Forte in the same-day Florida Derby does look like a wise move.

Since stretching out to two turns back on Oct. 30, Rocket Can has finished 1-2-1-2 in four consecutive 1 1/16-miles races, the latter two being Gulfstream stakes.

His route-race Beyers look a little light (78, 82, 82, 91) compared to other Derby aspirants, but this gray has resonated as a “better than what you see on paper” type of prospect, earning style points for reliably pouncing off the far turn and throwing himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns with an underdog flair.

Mott acknowledged after Rocket Can's second-place try behind Forte in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. that this colt got a little too wound up pre-race and was overly keen in the early stages of that race. Seeing how he acts in the post parade and during warmups will be crucial in assessing his chances Saturday.

10) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in
Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One has never won on dirt, hasn't hit the winner's circle in more than six months, and has never been fancied as the favorite in any of his seven lifetime races.

Yet here he is, one prep race from the Derby and pegged at a comparatively lofty No. 10 within the Top 12 while commanding a qualifying spot at No. 16 in the points standings for Derby eligibility. He closed at a respectable 24-1 in the latest version of the Derby Future Wager back on Mar. 12, which might end up representing lower odds than he'll be in the Derby itself on May 6.

The chief reason this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred is so well-regarded this deep into the season has everything to do with his potential upside at longer distances. By Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare and with a come-from-behind running style, Red Route One has twice splashed home second at Oaklawn this winter in graded stakes, and in all five of his 1 1/16-miles dirt races since October he's given the appearance that he's just starting to get uncoiled when the finish line is looming.

Red Route One has drawn post 10 for Saturday's Arkansas Derby.

11) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Slip Mahoney's stout Arrogate-over-A.P. Indy pedigree is likely to serve him well when this Brad Cox trainee stretches out to nine furlongs in the Apr. 8 GII Wood Memorial.

This $150,000 KEESEP colt was slow from the gate and second best with a big late rush from 13th behind a 7 1/2-length runaway winner in the muddy GIII Gotham S. back on Mar. 4.

That one-turn mile was Slip Mahoney's first go outside of the maiden ranks and he likely got more out of the experience than it looks on paper.

He breezed a half mile in :48.40 (2/89) Saturday over the Belmont training track with assistant trainer Dustin Dugas up, working in company with a stakes-placed filly.

“The work was great,” said Dugas. “Slip Mahoney was on the inside and it was a really good move from the both of them. They broke off well and galloped out in 1:01, so it was a good gallop out. I was happy with it and both came back really well. He didn't really require much encouraging.”

12) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game's next start remains up in the air as trainer Keith Desormeaux mulls options that include the Apr. 8 Blue Grass S. at nine furlongs, the GIII Lexington S. at 1 1/16 miles one week later, or simply training up to the Kentucky Derby.

This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride colt earned a 94 Beyer when winning the Rebel S. back on Feb. 25, benefitting from a comfortable, mid-pack trip behind two long-shot speedsters and two favorites who never fired.

Confidence Game, an efficient strider who responds to rousing from his rider, got third run at the tiring leaders off the final turn in the Rebel, then largely avoided a crush of inside traffic with a wide stretch bid that included some outward wandering late.

Although he has seven races of experience (five of them routes), this is a colt I'd like to see in action at nine furlongs before more emphatically getting behind his chances in the Derby.

If he goes straight to Louisville after having been idle for 10 weeks and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, it would be a huge ask, especially considering that Desormeaux acknowledged Confidence Game “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his Rebel score.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The Week in Review: Handle Falls Sharply Again in February… What’s Going On?

Figures released last week by Equibase showed that U.S. handle declined by 5.21% in February. This comes after handle declined by 7.19% in January. For the year, that's a drop off of 6.22% and, if those numbers hold up throughout the year, total handle will be off by $750 million and the year-over-year percentage decline will be the worst the sport has suffered since 2010.

And it's not just that racing has gotten off to a slow, reversible start this year when it comes to wagering. Whatever is going on, it started in October. Handle was up 2.68% in September and up 1.78% through the third quarter of 2022. Then the numbers took off in another direction and they haven't stopped falling since. Handle was off 4.93% in October, 4.47% in November and 7.52% in December.

Taking a look at the usual factors that affect handle doesn't yield any obvious answers. The average field size so far this year has been 7.66 horses per race, almost identical to the 2022 number, which was 7.67. The total number of races run has actually gone up, from 4,345 to 4,508. But the average amount wagered per racing day is off 8.35%.

This is a mystery not easily solved, but the best guess is that it has something to do with the amount being bet by the Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) players who received huge rebates from betting outlets like Elite Turf Club, which caters to the biggest bettors in the world. Had something happened to impact the amount they wager that would explain the recent declines?

Maury Wolff, who was a professional horseplayer before retiring and studies betting trends, speculated that some tracks may have raised the host fees they charge Elite and other ADWs. The signal fee is the percentage of every dollar of handle that an ADW or simulcast outlet must pay the host track for the right to wager on that track's races. If host fees go up, the rebates the ADW can offer its players will likely have to drop. A smaller rebate would lead to a CAW player betting less. Information on how much is bet at places like Elite and how much they pay in host fees is a carefully guarded secret.

“There is a possible explanation, but you'll never get to the bottom of it,” Wolff said. “What are racetracks doing when it comes to signal fees? An unreal amount of the total amount bet is driven by Elite and if there have been changes to signal fees, that would reduce handle at Elite. Have signal fees gone up to the shops, and when you are talking about the shops you are talking about Elite? I would be very suspicious of that. They are so much the driver now. Anything that affects them is going to be an earthquake to the business. That strikes me as a possibility.”

But Wolff admitted that his theory amounts to only an educated guess.

“But these are suspicions and suspicions are not facts,” he said.

What's the answer? We're not sure. Neither were a handful of other experts I consulted. But this is something to keep an eye on. One of the good news stories in racing over the last few years is that handle has more than held its own and done so despite the advent of legalized sports betting outside of Nevada. Handle was up by 11.8% in 2021 and, despite the decline over the last three months, down less than 1% in 2022. It looks like that's not going to be the case in 2023, which is off to an inauspicious start.

Why You Should Bet on Hawthorne

It's not easy being Hawthorne Race Course. Though a casino is on its way, as of now, they get no additional funding from slots, etc., and offer purses that are far lower than those found at the top-tier tracks. Because they are obligated to run a harness meet, Hawthorne can offer only a 68-day Thoroughbred meet that ends Sept. 3. Illinois racing misses Arlington Park.

But you can't say that Hawthorne isn't trying. Hoping to attract more business at the current meet, which began Mar. 5, the takeout on win, place and show bets has been slashed to 12%. When it comes to straight wagers, there's no better deal in the sport.

“You have to be aggressive with takeout sometimes,” said Hawthorne Racing Analyst Jim Miller. “Minor drops are always welcome, but we wanted to be really aggressive. Our takeout in the past on these wagers was 17%, so to drop five percentage points to 12% is very significant. We wanted to make a splash and we want to put out a product that people will want to bet on. We want people to focus on our races. We know handle will have to increase to cover what we are losing in commissions with the lower takeout, but in first couple of days of racing we have seen that handle has increased and we are hopeful we will have a very good year.”

Hawthorne is also thinking out of the box when it comes to its racing schedule. They will not race on Saturdays in March, April or May, going with a two-day week that includes racing only on Thursdays and Sundays.

“What we're doing is smart,” Miller said. “Here's a great example. Normally, our opening day would have been last Saturday. That happened to be the same day that you had three major racetracks with Derby preps and three or four other stakes on the card. These are great circuits that people want to watch. You want to see what's going on at Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Santa Anita. We knew that if we threw our card out on that day, we wouldn't handle anymore than $600,000. By shifting that card to Thursday, we handled $1.2 million and that's because there's not as much competition and there is more exposure. We want to put our product out there where the gamblers can see it and see all that we have to offer and see that we are offering a 12% takeout on win, place and show wagers.”

For good reason, horseplayers love to complain about how high the takeout is in racing. The best way to fight back is to support tracks like Hawthorne when they go out of their way to offer the customer a better deal.

Tapit Trice Did Just Fine in the Tampa Bay Derby

Perhaps you were expecting Tapit Trice (Tapit) to win the GII Tampa Bay Derby in a cakewalk. The expectations were high for the grey 3-year-old and they should have been. By Tapit, trained by Todd Pletcher and a $1.3-million yearling purchase at Keeneland September, he forced his way into the conversation for the GI Kentucky Derby with an impressive eight-length win in an allowance race at Gulfstream. He was sent off at 1-2 in the Tampa Bay Derby for a reason, because he looked much better than everyone else on paper.

But nothing came easily for Tapit Trice in his two-length win. He was 11th of 12 down the backstretch and looked beaten when he was still ninth on the far turn and was being hard ridden by Luis Saez. But he kept grinding away and managed to draw clear in the final sixteenth. His Beyer figure, an 88, was nothing to get excited about.

Was his Tampa Bay Derby performance good enough to win the Derby? No. But that doesn't mean he can't win the Derby. At Tampa, he ran like a horse who is still figuring things out. There's one more race to go, the GI Toyota Blue Grass S., and eight weeks to go before he'll get into the starting gate for the Derby for the Hall of Famer Pletcher. Look for a better, more focused horse next time. He should be fine.

The weekend also included a big win by GI Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (Arrogate) in the GII Azeri S. at Oaklawn. Beating a quality filly in Clairiere (Curlin) by 2 3/4 lengths, she couldn't have looked better. It was her first win since the Oaks.

Before the race, trainer Wayne Lukas said his goal for the year was to win an Eclipse Award with Secret Oath. With Nest (Curlin), last year's 3-year-old filly champion, back for another year, that won't be easy. But Secret Oath could not have gotten the year off to a better start.

The post The Week in Review: Handle Falls Sharply Again in February… What’s Going On? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Tapit Trice Tries Two Turns In Tampa Bay Derby

Trainer Todd Pletcher has unsaddled the winner of the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby a record five times–no one else has more than two to their credit–and he stands a fair chance to make it a half-dozen Saturday afternoon when he sends out the two favorites on the morning line.

Pegged at odds of 8-5 is Whisper Hill Farm's 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit), who will attempt to provide his sire with a fourth winner of the race since in its last 10 runnings (Ring Weekend, 2014; the Pletcher-conditioned Tapwrit, 2017; and Tacitus, 2019). A $1.3-million Keeneland September yearling, the gray colt has made each of his three career starts to date over a one-turn mile, and he could scarcely have been more impressive in running away from his surprisingly preferred stablemate Shesterkin (Violence) by some eight lengths in a Feb. 4 Gulfstream allowance.

“He's a colt we've had high hopes for all along,” said Pletcher following that test. “The exciting thing about him is the further he goes, the better he'll get.”

Should those words prove correct, they'll all be running for minor awards, as Tapit Trice owns the two best Beyer Speed Figures in the field, including a 92 last time that towers over his rivals.

Shesterkin is also a candidate to appreciate extra real estate, as his dam Freedom Star (Street Cry {Ire}) was a five-time winner at a distance of ground, including the 2010 GIII Azeri S.

While GIII Sam F. Davis S. hero Litigate (Blame) is passing on a return to Oldsmar in favor of the GII Louisiana Derby in two weeks' time, those that finished behind him that day are not without their chances. Groveland (Street Sense) rallied up the rail after encountering a bit of traffic to round out the Davis exacta ahead of Classic Car Wash (Noble Bird), who came from far back to photo the comebacking Classic Legacy (Into Mischief) out of third. The latter, a homebred half-brother to MGISW Art Collector (Bernardini), is intriguing at a price with a race under his belt.

'Justify'-able Optimism In Florida Oaks

The Pletcher barn also has claims in the afternoon's co-featured event, the GIII Florida Oaks. Don Alberto's Alpha Bella (Justify) graduated in her first start on the turf down at Gulfstream Dec. 11 and was relegated to second last time behind a rabbit-out-of-the-hat victory by her stablemate Cairo Consort (Cairo Prince) in the GIII Sweetest Chant S. three races after Tapit Trice's romp. Alpha Bella is a half-sister to Andina del Sur (Giant's Causeway), who caused a 13-1 upset in this race for trainer Tom Albertrani in 2018 after finishing third in the Sweetest Chant.

Chad Brown has won the last two runnings of the Oaks and three overall and is represented by Klaravich Stables' morning-line favorite Free Look (Tapit), runner-up in the GII Miss Grillo S. at Aqueduct ahead of an even fifth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in November.

Tampa also stages the 3-year-old turf colts' counterpart, the Columbia S., the GII Hillsborough S. and the GIII Challenger S.

Azeri Lures A Pair Of Top-Level Winners

Saturday's GII Azeri S., a final course-and-distance prep for next month's GI Apple Blossom H., has attracted a cracking field of eight dirt distaffers, led by returning Grade I winners Clairiere (Curlin) and Secret Oath (Arrogate).

Save for an off day when down the field in last year's GI Personal Ensign S., Stonestreet Stables' Clairiere was a model of consistency in 2022, with a record of 3-1-1 from her five other runs, including a thrilling defeat of champion Malathaat (Curlin) in the GI Ogden Phipps S. in June. The homebred took down that one's colors yet again in the GII Shuvee S. the following month, but had to settle for third to Malathaat in a memorable renewal of the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff.

Reigning GI Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath is perfect in three starts against her own sex over the Oaklawn main track, having annexed the Martha Washington S. and GIII Honeybee S. ahead of a third in the GI Arkansas Derby. The chestnut was soundly defeated by Eclipse Award winner Nest (Curlin) in the GI CCA Oaks and GI Alabama S. and led into the final eighth of a mile in the Distaff before weakening into fifth.

Interstatedaydream (Classic Empire) won last year's GII Black-Eyed Susan S. and GIII Indiana Oaks, but makes her first start since being upset in the Aug. 23 Cathryn Sophia S. at Parx.

Fun To Dream Goes For Five Straight In Beholder

Cal-bred Fun to Dream (Arrogate) is a deserving favorite heading into Saturday's GI Beholder Mile S. at Santa Anita, but has some questions to answer in what is clearly her stiffest test to date. An allowance winner in her only effort going long last October, she stretches out off three consecutive scores at seven furlongs, having bested the reopposing Awake At Midnyte (Nyquist) in the GI La Brea S. Dec. 26 and GII Santa Monica S. Feb. 4.

Standing in her way is Stonestreet's Pauline's Pearl (Tapit), already proven at the Grade I level after upsetting Shedaresthedevil (Daredevil) in the La Troienne S. last May. The gray resumed from a near seven-month absence with a smooth success in the GIII Houston Ladies' Classic Jan. 28.

A Mo Reay (Uncle Mo) is unbeaten in two starts since being purchased for $400,000 at Fasig-Tipton November and swerves the Azeri despite winning Oaklawn's GIII Bayakoa S. Feb. 4.

Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) looms the one to beat in Saturday's GIII San Carlos S. at the Great Race Place, while 'TDN Rising Star' Frank's Rockette (Into Mischief) looks a handful in the GIII Hurricane Bertie S. at Gulfstream.

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