Taking Stock | Horse Racing Free Tips

Taking Stock: Nyquist Off the Grade I Mark

Spendthrift purchased the breeding rights to Authentic before the Grade l Santa Anita Derby, and the $9 million kicker it agreed to pay Authentic’s former ownership group for winning the Gl Kentucky Derby is indicative of the premium that’s placed on a stallion prospect with North America’s most prestigious Classic on his resume. A front-running colt, Authentic has the right type of sire behind him as well. He’s by Spendthrift’s flagship stallion Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday), who cranks out graded stakes winners like nobody’s business, particularly sprinters and milers that are deadly up to a mile and a sixteenth. The stallion led the North American general sire list in 2019 and stood for $175,000 this year, and one of his first top sons to go to stud, Grade l winner Goldencents, also at Spendthrift, has started his career well enough–he was represented by Gll Alysheba S. winner By My Standards on the Derby undercard– to suggest that even brighter beginnings are in store for Authentic, his sire’s best racing son.

Stud farms want their prized first-crop horses to fly out of the gates early with 2-year-old winners and black-type runners and end their first seasons with a Grade l winner or two atop the freshman sire list. Darley’s Nyquist (Uncle Mo), who won the Derby in 2016, is on his way, currently leading all N.A. first-crop sires by progeny earnings after his daughter Vequist won the Gl Spinaway S. at Saratoga Sunday by 9 1/2 lengths. Another daughter, Lady Lilly, was third in the race. Before them, the Nyquist colt Gretzky the Great had won the Soaring Free S. at Woodbine in late August, putting Nyquist at the top of the list by number of black-type winners, too.

Like Authentic, Nyquist was also a fast colt who was probably better at shorter distances than a mile and a quarter, and he was more precocious than Authentic, who won his lone start last year. Nyquist, in contrast, won each of his five races at two, including three Grade l races: the Del Mar Futurity; FrontRunner S.; and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. At year’s end, he was named the champion 2-year-old colt.

He carried his form into the spring, winning the seven-furlong Gll San Vicente S. at Santa Anita in a rapid 1:20.71 before taking the Gl Florida Derby at Gulfstream, which has turned into a better “sire-making race” than the Kentucky Derby itself. Since 1990, graduates of the race include proven and promising sires Unbridled, Unbridled’s Song, Harlan’s Holiday, Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Quality Road, Dialed In, Take Charge Indy, and Constitution. In contrast, Street Sense and American Pharoah are the only Kentucky Derby winners who didn’t win the Florida Derby during this span that are comparable, but note that American Pharoah, despite a bunch of graded winners already, is still searching for his first Grade l winner with his first crop now three.

Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby next, and in retrospect, he had some fine horses behind him that day, including subsequent Classic winners Exaggerator (2nd; Preakness) and Creator (13th, Belmont S.), Horse of the Year Gun Runner (3rd; Breeders’ Cup Classic). Also included among Derby also-rans that day, Mohaymen (4th), Brody’s Cause (7th), Mor Spirit (10th), Outwork (14th), and Whitmore (19th), among others.

Note that both Brody’s Cause (Giant’s Causeway), now at Spendthrift, and Outwork (Uncle Mo), at WinStar, were represented by black-type winners over the weekend as well, Brody’s Cause with Glll Iroquois S. winner Sittin On Go at Churchill on the Derby undercard and Outwork with Samborella in the $150,000 Seeking the Ante S. at Saratoga a day earlier.

Arrogate, the colt who would be crowned champion 3-year-old of that year, was notably absent from the Derby field. In fact, on the day Nyquist won the Derby, Arrogate had made only one start, a third-place finish in a maiden special at Los Alamitos, and the careers of these two champions are studies in contrast. One was a fast and early developing colt whose career peaked as an undefeated Kentucky Derby winner of eight races, while the other made his name in 10-furlong races through the second half of his 3-year-old season and as an early 4-year-old before retiring as the leading N. American money earner. His first yearlings are selling now.

The Derby was the apex in Nyquist’s career. He had three more starts, never won again, and retired to Darley for the 2017 breeding season with a record of eight wins from 11 starts and $5,189,200 in earnings, and he brought plenty of cachet to the table for commercial breeders at $40,000 as a champion 2-year-old, early spring 3-year-old, and Kentucky Derby winner–exactly the race form both breeders and buyers look for. And like Authentic, he’s by the right kind of sire.

UNCLE MO

Nyquist was a member of Ashford-based Uncle Mo’s first crop and led a group of seven black-type winners for Uncle Mo that made him the leading freshman sire of 2015. That remarkable crop would eventually yield 25 black-type winners from 157 named foals, an exceptional 16%, and four Grade l winners, including Gomo, Unbridled Mo, and Outwork in addition to Nyquist.

To date, Uncle Mo is represented by eight Grade 1 winners through six crops of racing age (including 2-year-olds of 2020) versus seven for Into Mischief through nine crops, though in fairness to the latter, his first four crops contained only a total of 140 named foals.

Both stallions are clicking in high gear now, and this year Into Mischief is comfortably atop the general sire list, with Uncle Mo in third place. Into Mischief leads all stallions with 24 black-type winners, but Uncle Mo leads by number of graded stakes winners, with 12. Uncle Mo stood for $125,000 this spring.

Like Into Mischief with Goldencents, Uncle Mo’s sons are showing early life as stallions. Aside from Nyquist, with seven winners through Thursday afternoon, Outwork also has seven winners and a black-type winner and is in fifth place on the freshman list, and Uncle Mo’s less-heralded New York-based son at Sequel, Laoban, is in 12th with four winners and a black-type winner as well.

Uncle Mo was an exceptional 2-year-old, a man among boys both in physique and race class. He was a champion at two, winning the Gl Champagne S. by almost five lengths in 1:34.51 and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a little over four lengths. Unlike Nyquist, he wasn’t able to make the Derby and had a spotty record at three in an abbreviated campaign, but his subsequent success as a stallion has repaired his reputation as a racehorse and put him among the best stallions in the country.

Nyquist, therefore, has quite a bit going for him, and yearling buyers responded to the Darley stallion at the sales last year, making him the leading first-crop sire with an average price of $225,061–more than five times his stud fee–for 49 sold from 66 offered.

Thirteen of those 66 yearlings, or about 20%, were from A.P. Indy-line mares, and so far Nyquist’s three stakes horses are from this group. Gretzky the Great, a $295,000 RNA, is from a Bernardini mare; Vequist, a $120,000 RNA, is from a Mineshaft mare; and Lady Lilly, a $280,000 sale, is out of a Pulpit mare. Uncle Mo himself has sired seven stakes winners on the cross, including Grade I winner Mo Town and two Grade II winners from Bernardini mares.

Because Darley also stands Bernardini, an exceptional broodmare sire for his age, this is a cross we’re likely to see more of in the future, because, believe it or not, Gretzky the Great is so far the only foal of racing age by Nyquist from a Bernardini mare.

The title for leading freshman sire will probably come down to the Breeders’ Cup races, as I noted in this space discussing Taylor Made’s Not This Time two weeks ago. His daughter Princess Noor also became a Grade l winner Sunday, winning the Del Mar Debutante like an exceptional filly, and the matchup with Vequist will be highly anticipated.

Of course, between now and then a lot can and will happen, but Nyquist couldn’t be in a better spot as the freshmen sires turn into the homestretch. He’s leading.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Nyquist Off the Grade I Mark appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Taking Stock: Race Records and Stallion Prospects

Sackatoga Stable’s Tiz the Law (Constitution) was a Grade l winner at two, won the Grade l Florida Derby this year, and goes for the first Classic of the season as the favorite in the Gl Belmont S. on Saturday. His breeding rights have been tied up for months, and if he does nothing from here on in–highly unlikely as that is–he’ll still have a place at stud at a prominent farm.

Tiz the Law’s racetrack future is bright. After the Belmont, he’ll likely contest the Gl Travers at Saratoga in August ahead of the Gl Kentucky Derby in September and the Gl Preakness in October, and a win in one or more of those races will only burnish his resume and take him to another level as a stallion prospect.

Classic winners who were also highest-level winners at two are the most sought-after types in the breeding shed among both owner-breeders and commercial breeders, and at this moment Tiz the Law is perhaps the only colt of his generation with a legitimate chance to attain that status.

Godolphin’s Maxfield (Street Sense) was another Grade l-winning juvenile like Tiz the Law who had a chance to become a Classic winner this year, but following a comeback win in the Glll Matt Winn S. at Churchill Downs last month, he suffered a fracture in his first breeze back and it appears likely his career is over. If he’s done racing, his record will stand at three wins from three starts, including a top-level win in the GI Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his second start, and he’ll probably go to stud at Darley, Godolphin’s breeding arm, where his sire stands.

Nadal didn’t win a Grade l race at two, but he was undefeated in his four career starts, including the GI Arkansas Derby, and was a leading contender for the Classics before he suffered a career-ending fracture in a workout, too. One of his owners, George Bolton, has said he’ll go to stud next year, though where that may be hasn’t been announced yet.

Fragile Horses
Victoria Keith, who’s affiliated with Fox Hill Farm, tweeted on June 10: “At some point, racing may want to address the fragility of the breed. Several top 3yos out with injury, Maxfield the latest, who’s had 2 bone injuries in 3 starts.”

She followed that tweet with this one: “Where are the soundness stats? In an industry full of handicapping, nick, and other data, shouldn’t owners and breeders be equipped with soundness data when they make their breeding and buying decisions?”

Keith certainly raises some legitimate questions, something Fox Hill dealt with after the death of the stable’s Eight Belles (Unbridled’s Song) in the Kentucky Derby gallop-out. In fact, it’s an issue that’s been addressed since the beginnings of the sport, and you can throw a dart into any time frame since and find commentary on the issue from various angles. In the Nov. 13, 1961, issue of Sports Illustrated, for example, Whitney Tower, writing about some racetrack injuries, referenced this quote from the Chronicle of the Horse: “Far more important has been the long established practice of breeders to put to stud any animal which will transmit speed, no matter what its shortcomings in other respects. Thus, there have crept into the Thoroughbred breed various types of inherited unsoundness–crooked legs, round ankles, bad knees, shelly feet, curby hocks, soft and brittle bones.”

In 1961, there were far more owner-breeders in the sport who raced the horses they bred, but nowadays, especially in Kentucky, commercial breeders dominate the landscape, and because they frequently use first-crop sires as an investment strategy, there isn’t any “soundness data” on the offspring of these horses on which to base mating or buying decisions, except for their own race records.

And race records are sometimes unreliable guides to future sire performance. Raise a Native (Native Dancer) and Northern Dancer (Nearctic) were both foaled in 1961. The latter won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and went on to a fabulous stud career that is still profound to this day. But the former, a brilliantly fast and undefeated black-type winner who made only four starts at two before bowing a tendon, has been just as influential, particularly as the sire of Mr. Prospector.

Northern Dancer sired his version of Raise a Native in Danzig, a foal of 1977 who won each of his three starts–none in stakes company–before a bum knee stopped him. Contrast him to Temperence Hill (Stop the Music), the champion 3-year-old colt of their crop in 1980 and the winner of the Belmont S. who made 31 starts. As a stallion, Temperence Hill sired sound stock, getting 83% starters to foals, but he got only 4% black-type winners to foals. Danzig, on the other hand, gave up some soundness, at 77% starters to foals, but sired better horses, with 18% black-type winners.

Nureyev (Northern Dancer), like Danzig, also made only three starts, finishing first in all of them, but he was disqualified from the G1 2000 Guineas and officially had only Group 3 credit next to his name, though he was also named a champion French miler. He, too, became a world-class sire, getting 81% starters to foals and 17% black-type winners. His name has already been peppered throughout the pedigrees of several European Classic and Group 1 winners so far this season. Claiborne stood Danzig but bred Nureyev, whose homebred dam, Special, raced only once, finishing unplaced, because she was a bleeder.

Claiborne also bred and stood Drone (Sir Gaylord), who broke down after four wins from four starts–none in stakes company. A foal of 1966, Drone sired 80% starters from foals and 9% black type winners. He’s been an influential broodmare sire. More recently, Claiborne stands Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg}), a Grade I winner at two and undefeated in four starts. His career, like those of Nadal and Maxfield, was cut short by a condylar fracture. His stud services have been highly sought despite a limited career.

Not This Time
On the same day–June 10–that Maxfield’s injury was announced and Keith tweeted her concerns for the “fragility of the breed,” Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), a first-crop sire who made four lifetime starts and won one Grade lll race, was represented by the session and eventual sales topper at the OBS Spring sale. Hip 1254, a filly out of Sheza Smoke Show who’d worked the fastest quarter-mile at the sale in :20 1/5, brought $1,350,000 from Gary Young. The next-highest price that day was the $800,000 that D.J. Stable paid for a Candy Ride (Arg) colt (Hip 561) who’d worked a furlong in :10 1/5.

Not This Time sustained a soft tissue injury and he never raced after two. Candy Ride, likewise, had a career-ending soft tissue injury when he was four and was plagued by foot problems throughout his career, which lasted for all of six starts–the same as Pulpit and his son Tapit. He was undefeated in three starts in Argentina and three in the U.S., and he was a Grade l winner on two continents. He’s since become a premier stallion and has sired such as Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who came into his own as an older horse, and Mastery, an outstanding 2-year-old.

Not This Time, who stands at Taylor Made and entered stud for a $15,000 fee, has not put off buyers with his abbreviated race record. Aside from the sale topper, the horse was represented at OBS with lots that made $700,000 and $575,000 as well. It’s also notable that WinStar’s Speightster (Speightstown), a homebred who entered stud for a $10,000 fee and also has first-crop runners, had the third-highest price at OBS, a colt who sold for $1.1 million. Speightster won three of four starts, his only stakes win a Grade lll race.

Both Speightster and Not This Time are just beginning their careers and are represented by winners from limited opportunities available this year. They have a long way to go to become recognized as successful sires, but their early results have already earned them the support of horsemen in the sales ring. And they are exactly the types of horses, along with the Masterys, Nadals, and Maxfields, that Keith questions as stud prospects and that Whitney Tower’s article from almost 60 years ago addressed, but it’s from this pool of types with abbreviated race records that have also sprung breed-shaping horses like Raise a Native, Danzig, and Nureyev.

In short, it’s difficult to predict sire success from a race record alone. And if it turns out, years from now, that Maxfield becomes a better sire than Tiz the Law or any of his other contemporaries who carve out longer careers, it shouldn’t surprise anyone with a knowledge of history.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Race Records and Stallion Prospects appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post