Value Sires for ’22, Part VII: Through the Crossroads

In reaching the penultimate instalment of our series, once again we are obliged by the steepening commercial gradient to combine different intakes–this time, those who have now launched between four and six juvenile crops–to ensure a suitably competitive podium. For by this stage of their career the majority of Kentucky start-ups will already have packed their bags for regional or overseas programs. One or two are still barely clinging on, their books plummeting, but overall we're now looking at those few who have bravely consolidated to the brink of inclusion among those we'll be featuring in the final leg of our series, as “Established Sires”.

Because while few have quite maintained their early book sizes, they have at least now had a fair opportunity to show their hand, with between three and five sophomore crops. We can no longer complain that their stock has been judged prematurely, especially given that they will typically have been given their biggest chance in their opening books. And since most will meanwhile have had their fees trimmed, simply to stay in the game, you could argue that this stage of a stallion's career tends to produce some of the very best value in the marketplace. Indeed, among these three intakes, Maclean's Music alone stands as high as $50,000, and he does so only by dint of doubling his fee for 2022–thanks to 221 mares last spring, followed in the summer by his breakout Grade I exacta.

Bearing in mind that he actually belongs to the most exposed of these three groups, Maclean's Music shows that stallions at this point have useful potential to get you ahead of the game. In surviving the commercial trauma of their stock's racetrack exposure, they have tended to establish a loyal base on which to build again. They have “come out the other side”, so to speak.

Even so, it becomes ever more difficult to agree quite what we mean by “value”. End users will be delighted to obtain inexpensively the services of what may now be considered relatively proven sires; but commercial breeders still need some residual market momentum–resilient yearling averages, maybe, or a filling “pipeline”–if they are to keep the faith.

So here, offered as subjectively as ever, are some that may achieve a happy medium.

Bubbling under: Let's hope Paynter gets due recognition for a Horse of the Year, because he's far from a one-trick pony with 20/38 stakes winners/performers at a clip that stands right up to, say, his more expensive classmate Violence (who does, in fairness, have five Grade I horses against just Knicks Go). One way or another Paynter continues to be commercially neglected, which does mean that he offers especially rare value, on $10,000 at WinStar, for the end-user.

That's exactly what The Factor has already proven himself to be–and he's set for another top 20 finish in the general sires' list, consistently punching way above belt on $17,500 at Lane's End. He's been doing that ever since his return from Japan and, while that year away will leave him treading water briefly (no sophomores in 2022), he will be kept in business by his older stock, not least in view of their trademark, teak soundness. Foals bred now will be well placed to capitalise on renewed momentum, with books of 150 and 135 in the pipeline. The Factor may be hard to keep off the podium among established sires this time next year.

Take Charge Indy has had to regroup from a rather longer exile, having spent three years in Korea before earning an unusual repatriation through the endeavors of stock he had left behind. He requires just a little patience, with his first juveniles since his return on line only for 2023, but meanwhile gets another attractive trim to $12,500 at WinStar and, while he didn't really have an adequate footprint to freshen up his resumé a great deal this year, his overall record leaves no doubt of his competence to convert that sumptuous pedigree into stakes horses. I suspect that those who stick with him now will soon find themselves catching a rising tide.

The only member of Take Charge Indy's class to get black-type horses at a superior rate is Jimmy Creed, who just needs to improve his conversion rate: he has outstanding ratios for stakes, graded stakes and Grade I performers and is surely due a spate of headliners to follow his first elite winner, Casa Creed, one of just three scorers from as many as 17 stakes placers in 2021. Remember that Jimmy Creed, having rallied from 67 mares in 2017 to 165 in 2018, also has numbers on his side–and not least of these is a fee of $10,000 at Spendthrift.

Union Rags | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: UNION RAGS (Dixie Union–Tempo, by Gone West)

$30,000 Lane's End

Has the time come to get back on board the Union Rags express? There's no point pretending that the halving of his fee from $60,000 last spring was purely a COVID concession. He had hoisted himself from an initial $35,000 with no fewer than four Grade I winners from his first two crops, but dropped to ninth in the fourth-crop table in 2019 and slipped to 111 mares in 2020. But his farm's businesslike response was immediately rewarded by a return to full subscription (by their commendably restrained standards, anyway) at 164 mares.

In terms of output, then, Union Rags has plenty to work with, if he can regroup now. And that is exactly what he has begun to do. In 2021, he's back at the top of the class by stakes winners (seven), graded stakes winners (four) and graded stakes performers (11). He's had a number of near-misses in resonant races: Express Train was foiled by half a length in the GI Santa Anita H., Dynamic One missed by a nose in the GII Wood Memorial, and Commandperformance finished second in the GI Champagne S. and fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile on only his second and third starts. The $1-million baby Spielberg is back on the worktab, too.

It feels like the stock of Union Rags taper to a peak that is higher than it is wide. Cumulatively, his percentage of black-type action doesn't quite match classmate Creative Cause, for instance, and he stands at a quarter of the fee. But when Union Rags does connect, he can hit a long way. He has so far assembled as many as 12 Grade I performers among 29 placed at graded stakes level overall, at a ratio that measures right up to his universally admired studmate Twirling Candy.

Union Rags always promised to cover all bases as a fast juvenile (won GII Saratoga Special by seven lengths en route to GI Champagne S. success and a head defeat at the Breeders' Cup) who stretched his speed to win the GI Belmont S. on what sadly proved his final start. Though somewhat shaken by his ups and downs, the market maintains him with ample viability at this kind of fee (last two yearling crops averaged $87,024 and $106,000) and Union Rags, who has now been joined at stud by his imposing son Catalina Cruiser, is certainly a conduit of some venerable genes. His half-sister is the dam of an international force in Declaration of War (War Front) while his third dam is a British Classic winner by a son of Hyperion.

It goes without saying that a lot of the new sires corralling huge books this coming spring will never manage a single Grade I winner, never mind four, and it seems a little unfair to punish Union Rags for doing so well, so quickly, and then not repeating quickly enough. It takes a potent sire to do what he did, and he's the self-same package now–but at half the fee he could charge only a couple of years ago. Definite scope for Rags to riches, once again.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

Silver: CAIRO PRINCE (Pioneerof the Nile–Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull)

$15,000 Airdrie

There's been an uncanny parity between the standout fourth-crop sires Goldencents (Into Mischief) and Cairo Prince, who from virtually the same number of named foals (454 and 450 respectively) have so far been precisely in step for black-type performers (38 apiece) and graded stakes winners (five each), their fees similarly settling at $15,000.

But while Goldencents was first to a Grade I breakout, it's the Airdrie stallion who has opened up daylight when measured by stakes winners (18 plays 13) and graded stakes horses (13 against eight)–and, critically, he is due for fresh impetus.

Because now is the time Cairo Prince can start to register the upgrade in his mares following his sensational sales debut in 2017, when his first yearlings averaged 15 times conception fee. In 2018, he received the rare accolade of a second fee increase before he had even had a runner, to $25,000 from an opening $10,000.

The first foals resulting from that heightened demand are this year's juveniles and we can already see the dividends. True, some of the most accomplished of his youngsters were bred at Airdrie, such as stakes winner/GI Starlet S. runner-up Cairo Memories; and recent runaway Churchill debut winner Park On the Nile. But already Cairo Prince has sired 29 winners from 57 starters in this crop, including seven black-type performers, putting him behind only Into Mischief himself in the juvenile standings. And the champion stallion has needed 86 starters for his 33 winners!

Something is stirring with Cairo Prince, then–already anticipated at the 2-year-old sales, where his average basically doubled on the previous crop. And his stock should continue to thrive, too: Cairo Prince was all set to build on his early foundations (won GII Nashua S. on second start, romped in GII Holy Bull S.) when derailing in the GI Florida Derby. His dam was a stakes winner at four, after all, and his family has just the kind of copper-bottomed seeding we know to expect at this farm: third and fourth dams, indeed, are by Nearctic and Native Dancer. Closer up, Cairo Prince is a half-brother to the Grade I-placed dam of Grade I winner and promising WinStar sire Outwork (Uncle Mo).

It's pretty rare for the market to “find” a new stallion the way it did this one, being generally inclined slavishly to obey the values implied by covering costs. Yet Cairo Prince, partly as a result of last year's COVID cuts, has come back down in fee even if his “pipeline” has become ever more loaded. As a result, those who breed to him now have a low-stakes opportunity to cash in as this second, better-bred cycle starts to do its stuff. With his lamented sire a premature loss, the Prince looks ready to accede to the throne.

Dialed In winning the 2011 Florida Derby | Coglianese

Gold: DIALED IN (Mineshaft–Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat)

$15,000 Darby Dan

Now here's a horse whose every step takes him forward, with only his fee standing still. No surprise, certainly, that his second Grade I winner should also be a graduate of his 2017 book, which soared giddily to 231 mares from 105 the previous year.

That surge came after he had topped the freshmen prizemoney table; also top by wins and second (missed by one) by individual winners, despite fielding only 40 starters against 53, 57 and 56 for the next three in the table–and all from an opening fee of just $7,500.

Dialed In's next four books have brought in another 542 mares but his fee, having meanwhile touched $25,000, has been allowed to drift down again. We know that the market always needs encouragement, pending the maturing of a new cycle in a stallion's career; and of course he also participated in the COVID concessions made last year. But the upswing could already be read at the yearling sales this year, where Dialed In catapulted his average from $41,462 in 2020 to $71,000, processing no fewer than 36 of 39 into the ring. That's a really significant vote of confidence in a stallion at this stage of his career.

Those of us who have long nursed high hopes for Dialed In could salute Get Her Number's juvenile Grade I success last year as a sign of things to come and, sure enough, his sophomores in 2021 included not just GI Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock but also Mr. Wireless, who paired the GIII Indiana Derby and GIII West Virginia Derby. Moreover their sire, for all the precocity he injected into his freshmen's title, has also established his ability to maintain the output of his maturing stock: his first headliner Gunnevera, for instance, was still going strong at five.

I do admire the way Dialed In has pulled himself up by his bootstraps. He had been something of a forgotten horse when starting out at a basement fee, having failed to reward perseverance on the track (single disappointing start at four) after dropping out the previous summer for removal of a chip. He had earned favoritism for the first Saturday in May in winning the GI Florida Derby, only to get stuck out the back before finishing strongly; before then doing the same in the GI Preakness.

But he has always had terrific physical charisma–as a $475,000 Saratoga yearling, he was the most expensive of the crop for his stalwart sire–and there's no doubt that this is a true aristocrat. His pedigree has a beautiful shape, with an Eclipse champion as second dam, and he has raised up some pretty humble mares. Get Her Number's dam, for example, had changed hands for $1,300, while Chalon, beaten a head for the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and a few cents off millionaire status, is out of a $20,000 mare. The dam of Gunnevera, himself a $16,000 yearling who banked over $5.5 million, had been sold for $13,000.

Dialed In already has 22 graded stakes performers, at a pretty respectable ratio, but only now is he starting to reap the rewards he earned in seizing his first opportunities so eagerly. If you want to use a literal speed-Dial, there's now a full signal.

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Speightstown, Constitution Lead the Way at WinStar

Speightstown will head the roster at WinStar Farm in 2022 with a fee of $90,000, stands and nurses, the same fee for which he stood in 2021. Right behind the chestnut is Constitution, North America's second-leading third-crop sire, who will stand for $85,000 S&N, also the same as 2021.

Among notable changes on the 18-horse roster, More Than Ready gets a trim from $65,000 to $50,000.

“Our 2022 roster is suited for breeders at every level,” said Elliott Walden, WinStar's president, CEO, and racing manager. “Speightstown, Constitution, and More Than Ready continue to provide breeders with options from prolific sire lines that American racing thrives on. We have young, exciting Grade I-winning stallions, including Improbable, Audible, Yoshida (Jpn), Tom's d'Etat, and Global Campaign, who all have the potential to be top sires and lead the new generation of stallions at WinStar. We also have proven sires like Paynter and Take Charge Indy, who provide value with the possibility of getting a racehorse at the highest level.”

Speightstown, currently the third-leading general sire on the TDN sire list with progeny earnings of $13,443,275 thus far in 2021, has been represented on the track this season by Lexitonian, winner of the GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.; Flagstaff, winner of the GI Churchill Downs S. and the GIII Commonwealth S.; and undefeated 3-year-old filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Carribean Caper, winner of five consecutive races, including the GIII Dogwood S. Speightstown has sired 21 Grade I Northern Hemisphere-foaled winners on every surface, from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles all over the world, and one Southern Hemisphere-foaled Grade I winner.

Constitution, sire of last year's GI Belmont S. winner Tiz the Law from his first crop, is the second-leading third-crop sire in North America this year on the TDN sire list with progeny earnings of $8,282,355, 29 black-type horses, and four graded stakes winners.

More Than Ready will stand the upcoming breeding season for $50,000 S&N. From his Northern and Southern Hemisphere crops, More Than Ready has sired 212 black-type winners, is the only sire to have an Eclipse Award Champion each of the last four years, and he added a new Grade I winner this year in Hit the Road, winner of the GI Frank E. Kilroe Mile.

With first foals on the way in 2022, Improbable, the 2020 Eclipse Champion Older Male, will stand his second season at stud for $35,000 S&N, down from $40,000 last year. Undefeated at two and a five-length winner of the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable rattled off three consecutive Grade I victories in 2020.

Florida Derby winner Audible, who bred over 400 mares his first two years at stud–more than any WinStar stallion in history–will remain at $22,500 S&N. He has his first yearlings in 2022.

Paynter, who is currently ranked eighth on the general sires list with progeny earnings of $9,687,843, will stand for $7,500. That fee is only guaranteed through the Breeders' Cup where Paynter's son, Knicks Go, a four-time Grade I winner, is the likely favorite for the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

Stallions will be available for inspection by appointment from 11 a.m.-2 p.m. during the Fasig-Tipton October Yearling Sale, Oct. 25-28.

The entire 2022 roster of stallions and fees (subject to change) for WinStar Farm are as follows:

Stallion, S&N Fee

Always Dreaming–$12,500

Audible–$22,500

Carpe Diem–$5,000

Constitution–$85,000

Exaggerator–$7,500

Global Campaign–$12,500

Good Samaritan–$7,500

Improbable–$35,000

More Than Ready–$50,000

Outwork–$10,000

Paynter–$7,500

Promises Fulfilled–$5,000

Speightster–$7,500

Speightstown–$90,000

Take Charge Indy–$12,500

Tom's d'Etat–$12,500

Tourist–$5,000

Yoshida (Jpn)–$12,500

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As Time Goes By Ekes Out Santa Maria Win

Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith's As Time Goes By (American Pharoah) aired by 9 1/4 lengths in her latest start in the Apr. 24 GII Santa Margarita S., however, she had to work a lot harder when nosing out 23-1 longshot This Tea (Curlin) in Saturday's GII Santa Maria S. at Santa Anita.

Breaking from the outside of a four-horse field, the 4-year-old allowed Miss Stormy D (Tapizar) to assume the helm through opening fractions of :23.83 and :47.12. Given the cue by Mike Smith at the three-furlong marker, the 2-5 favorite easily overtook the early pacesetter and was joined by Ce Ce (Elusive Quality), who loomed on her outside hip as This Tea started to make her move from the back. Narrowly ahead of the tightly-bunch field turning for home, the daughter of GISW Take Charge Lady dispensed of Miss Stormy D to her inside as Ce Ce also began her retreat. Meanwhile, This Tea continued to inch closer through the length of the lane and the two fillies hit the wire seemingly in unison, although the photo gave the edge to the Bob Baffert trainee. Miss Stormy D was third with Ce Ce fourth.

“I told Mike, we've been going easy on her, not too hard for this race,” said Baffert, who registered his meet-leading 14th stakes victory. “This is the first time she's come back really blowing. That filly that ran second, ran a big race. “[As Time Goes By]'s heart and true grit made her hang in there. We knew Miss Stormy D was quick, and you could tell turning for home that my filly wasn't doing it that easily.”

As Time Goes By broke her maiden at third asking at Los Alamitos last December before returning with a flashy score going a mile in a Santa Anita allowance Jan. 17. Finding GI Preakness S. heroine Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) 2 3/4-lengths too good in the GI Beholder Mile S. Mar. 13, she bounced back to hand This Tea a sound defeat in the nine-furlong Santa Margarita.

“They ran good, you know, my hat's off to the filly that finished second, she ran a huge race,” added Smith. “She'll get more out of this race. After she ran the last time out, they kind of backed off her a little bit. She's a big mare with a big frame and she'll tend to gain some weight and I could tell she was a little more stocked today. She got a little tired, but she'll get a whole lot out of that.”

Pedigree Notes:
In spite of her status as a MGSW & GISP runner, As Time Goes By still has a long way to go to live up to family expectations. She is the final foal of Broodmare of the Year, MGISW, and $4.2-million Keeneland sales mare Take Charge Lady (Dehere), making her a half-sister to champion Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song), GISW Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), and to the dam of champion Take Charge Brandi (Giant's Causeway) and MGISW Omaha Beach (War Front). Not all of Take Charge Lady's 10 total foals went through the sales ring–As Time Goes By didn't–but they've often made waves when they have: Charming (Seeking the Gold) sold for $3.2 million as a yearling in 2006, I'll Take Charge (Indian Charlie) was a $2.2-million yearling in 2013, and Lady Take Charge (War Front) was a $3.2-million weanling in 2015.
Take Charge Lady was one of 80 stakes winners for 1993 champion 2-year-old Dehere, who died in 2014 in Turkey after previously standing in Kentucky, Australia, and Japan. His daughters have produced 117 black-type winners to date, including champion Midnight Lute (Real Quiet) and Breeders' Cup winner City of Light (Quality Road). As Time Goes By is a member of the first crop of Triple Crown champ American Pharoah, who is enjoying the fruits of stellar books of mares with 15 black-type winners in his first two crops. Among his 10 graded winners are three who have achieved the Grade I/Group 1 echelon: Harvey's Lil Goil, Café Pharoah, and Van Gogh.

Saturday, Santa Anita
SANTA MARIA S.-GII, $196,000, Santa Anita, 5-22, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/16m, 1:43.77, ft.
1–AS TIME GOES BY, 126, f, 4, by American Pharoah
              1st Dam: Take Charge Lady (Broodmare Of The Year,
                             MGISW, $2,480,377), by Dehere
              2nd Dam: Felicita, by Rubiano
              3rd Dam: Grand Bonheur, by Blushing Groom (Fr)
O-Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith;
B-Orpendale & Chelston (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Mike E. Smith.
$120,000. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-4-2-1, $380,600. *1/2 to
Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song), Ch. 3yo Colt, MGISW,
$3,924,648; Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), GISW, $1,103,496.
Werk Nick Rating: B+. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–This Tea, 122, f, 4, Curlin–Funny Moon, by Malibu Moon.
($135,000 Ylg '18 KEESEP). O-Kretz Racing LLC; B-My
Meadowview LLC (KY); T-George Papaprodromou. $40,000.
3–Miss Stormy D, 122, m, 5, Tapizar–Miss Relentless, by Mr.
Greeley. ($37,000 Ylg '17 KEESEP). O-Keith Brackpool;
B-Lantern Hill Farm LLC, Phil & Judy Needham (KY); T-Carla
Gaines. $24,000.
Margins: NO, 8, 2 1/4. Odds: 0.40, 23.40, 15.30.
Also Ran: Ce Ce. Scratched: Last First Kiss.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

 

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Kentucky Sires for 2021: Fifth-Crop Stallions

Today we come to a final group of stallions whose development we're treating separately, before wrapping up our series with a look at those survivors who made it across the highwire and can be grouped together as “Established Sires.” (After which we'll also be taking a tour of regional stallions.)

In the last couple of instalments, we've observed the Kentucky talent pool in each intake rapidly drying up, so that our review of third- and fourth-crop options respectively encompassed 18 and just six stallions. And we are left with a similar rump among those about to launch a fifth crop of juveniles, with only seven still advertising a fee in Kentucky.

No need, by this stage, to reprise yet again the familiar traps of the commercial model. Suffice to turn back the clock to 2016, not so long ago, when Orb (Malibu Moon–Lady Liberty, by Unbridled)–a Kentucky Derby winner from the family of Ruffian, standing for $25,000 on an exemplary, historic farm; one sagely resistant to the inundation of the market by more industrial rivals–dominated this group with a $148,318 average for his first yearlings. Unusually, moreover, he actually managed to elevate his second crop to a still higher yield at $184,006, when selling no fewer than 66 of 77 into the ring. The world was at his feet. In 2021 Orb is still clinging on at Claiborne, but listed as “private” after receiving a grand total of seven mares last spring.

Nobody's fault, and there are parallels on every farm. Conceivably Orb could yet pull a champion out of his hat. But such is the terrifying commercial vortex that consumes a young stallion who does not make an adequately purposeful start.

Nor, on the other hand, does even the briskest of beginnings guarantee lasting momentum. The champion freshman of this group was Overanalyze, whose 2018 book at WinStar promptly soared to 195. The following season, however, he had plummeted to 43 mares and last spring he was exported to Korea. Shanghai Bobby was on his way to Japan within the year of finishing third in the freshmen championship–despite having meanwhile produced a Royal Ascot winner from his second crop, which also turned out to include elite sprinter Shancelot. A year later Japan would also summon Animal Kingdom, who had finished fourth in the freshman table.

Yet this is also the intake that includes New Year's Day. Having been reduced to a couple of dozen mares at $5,000 in 2018, he was sold to Brazil four months before an upgraded claiming horse named Maximum Security gave him a first graded stakes success. The rest is history, and New Year's Day has since been given a fresh start in Japan.

What a chaotic environment, then, shaped more by luck than judgement, has been heroically negotiated by the handful in this class who have established a viable niche in the Kentucky market.

Violence | Sarah Andrew

As it happens, far and away their most consistent achiever has been a horse who was worn down in the GII Fountain of Youth S., which turned out to be his final start, by none other than Orb. Their fortunes have diverged in their new careers, with Violence (Medaglia d'Oro–Violent Beauty, by Gone West) at Hill 'n' Dale dominating on cumulative results by virtually all indices. He only missed Overanalyze by cents as a freshman, and has since maintained output for 21 black-type winners.

True, he had a quieter year in 2019, prompting an immediate reversal–back to $25,000 from $40,000–of the fee hike he had earned with his across-the-board second-crop championship, on the back of which he had sold his yearlings (conceived at $15,000) for a knockout average of $133,600. But his 2020 campaign has the look of a turning point, crowned not just by a first domestic Grade I winner but by three of them, from consecutive crops: Volatile in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H., No Parole in the Woody Stephens, and Dr. Schivel in the Del Mar Futurity. Behind Speightstown's four elite scorers, only Into Mischief, More Than Ready and War Front shared this distinction in 2020.

The focus on speed in his elite trio is an interesting development. Violence's own sire, though by an avowed turf influence in El Prado (Ire), operated on dirt and has divided his impact, at stud, not only between surfaces but also between disciplines. And an aristocratic maternal family features a series of crossover influences: second dam by Storm Cat out of Hall of Famer Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom); third a half-sister to the flying Dayjur (Danzig); fourth by Nijinsky out of champion sprinter Gold Beauty (Mr. Prospector).

There will be no break in the traffic for Violence, whose sales performance reflects something of his own exceptional physique. The group of juveniles he is about to launch, indeed, graduate from a book of 214 mares and he only lost momentum after that quiet 2019, with 86 mares last year. You can bet that numbers will be back up now. After sliding to a yearling average of $44,649 with his 2019 blip, this time round Violence rallied to $72,128 for 66 yearlings sold of 88 offered–an especially good performance, of course, in the teeth of the pandemic economy.

I love that Violence's first two dams are both by sires, in Gone West and Storm Cat, out of daughters of Secretariat–whose half-brother Sir Gaylord is responsible for the damsire of El Prado. One way or another, Violence now has all bases covered and can keep consolidating.

Paynter | WinStar

If Violence has always seemed regal, his nearest pursuer in this group has seemed more like the plucky fellow fighting to earn his stripes. Doubtless that partly reflects the grave health challenges overcome by Paynter (Awesome Again–Tizso, by Cee's Tizzy) before he could resume at a high level as an older horse. But we should remind ourselves that he actually started out at WinStar off a higher fee ($25,000) than Violence.

For 2021, he has taken his fourth fee cut to just $7,500–pretty astonishing, really, when he had just been saluted as sire of the fastest miler in Keeneland's history. Now, of course, Knicks Go has followed up his GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile track record in the GI Pegasus World Cup, reiterating his ability to kick again from the front. But this dazzling renewal for the Brad Cox barn is actually the second time that Maryland-bred Knicks Go, whose family is seeded by some pretty exotic names, has demanded a fresh look at his sire.

With three-figure books across his first four seasons, Paynter had been given a solid base and his first yearlings were well supported. They made a fairly quiet start on the track the following year, however, reducing his next book to just 34 mares at half his opening fee. Neither Paynter himself nor his sire had raced at two, so it's hard to know quite what breeders were expecting. But then Knicks Go emerged from his second crop, first as shock winner of the GI Breeders' Futurity and then beating all bar Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That revived momentum for Paynter, who received 97 and 71 mares in the two years since, and the second coming of Knicks Go will surely repeat the dose at such a low fee.

Because actually Paynter has a solid spread of talent behind his flagship. Knicks Go, remember, sat out most of 2020 and his $608,440 earnings represented only 10 cents in every dollar banked by Paynter in overhauling even Violence, with his three Grade I winners, to top the fourth-crop sires table. Though we've seen that only a handful of elite stallions could match the icing on Violence's cake, their performance otherwise was very similar: Paynter had 222 starters, Violence 225; he had nine black-type winners, against eight for Violence; 18 black-type performers played 15; each had three graded stakes winners and six graded stakes horses; and they respectively notched 115 and 116 winners overall.

The gap between them, of course, remains the one that divides Knicks Go from the rest of Paynter's best stock. Graded stakes winner Harpers First Ride is doing his best, ten-for-18 overall after finishing tailed off in the Pegasus, but Paynter doesn't want Knicks Go to seem so freakish as to become as much of a burden as a benefit. That's why we should respect the breadth of his output, putting him in some pretty august company in the general sires list (among the top 20 active stallions last year).

Paynter's fee cut looks a sensible response to his virtual disappearance as a commercial force with his latest yearlings, processing a handful for a four-figure average. But he can turn that round, too, as people absorb the supporting cast behind his headline act. Either way he certainly looks attractively priced for anyone who might want to breed a runner. And remember his deeds all have an obvious genetic base: he's out of a full-sister to his farm's pensioned legend Tiznow.

Take Charge Indy | Louise Reinagel

This group contains one stallion who has actually managed to reverse the usual tide, Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy–Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) having last year returned to WinStar after a three-year stint in Korea. He had been exported after a tepid reception for his first yearlings in 2016, leggy and immature as they often were, an average of $40,422 representing a limited yield for a rookie who had started out at $20,000.

The three crops he left behind, however, turned out to include the likes of GII Rebel S. winner Long Range Toddy, GII Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy and GI Preakness S. runner-up Everfast. In 2018, Take Charge Indy finished runner-up in the second-crop table; and the following year he edged out Paynter to top the third-crop championship with five black-type winners. He only mustered one of those last year, but obviously had no juvenile input in play.

He was welcomed back by 144 mares last spring, at $17,500, and a mild trim to $15,000 suggests confidence that breeders will be following through on a pedigree that unites a breed-shaping stallion with a top-class runner who has since become a Broodmare of the Year (also responsible, of course, for Three Chimneys sire Will Take Charge). As with Violence, we get a double dose of Secretariat's daughters through Weekend Surprise, the dam of A.P. Indy, and Sister Dot, who gave us Take Charge Lady's sire Dehere. Indeed, the whole page is saturated with Classic influences and, if his GI Florida Derby success could not disguise the reality that he raced one peg below the very best, then Take Charge Indy could well become one of those whose genes make him eligible to produce runners still better than himself.

That remains to be seen. Strictly, Take Charge Indy still needs his big horse–but the bottom line is that his black-type winners and performers have come at a clip slightly better than both Violence and Paynter. Obviously he has a problem in that there will be few if any headlines coming off the track for a couple years now, so he may need the market to invest his relaunch with something of the glamour generally reserved for total newcomers. But he should be treated with more respect than those, having already demonstrated his competence in the role. And the Classic complexion of his overall pedigree should especially appeal to anyone prepared to retain a filly.

 

Oxbow | ThoroStride

Another nugget of old-fashioned virtue, and who happens to be even more closely related to a rival in this intake, is Oxbow (Awesome Again–Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) at Calumet. He is by the same sire as Paynter and his dam, like Paynter, is another sister to the great Tiznow. Both horses, moreover, finished second in the GI Belmont S. But Oxbow did so after winning the GI Preakness and running sixth in the Derby, and earlier won the GIII Lecomte S. by 11 1/2 lengths. Unfortunately he derailed in his next start, but he had left no doubt as to his throwback, speed-carrying capacities and you'd be confident that his stock will mature effectively.

That's important, because his sophomores this year represent a book of 187–and they include none other than Hot Rod Charlie, 94-1 runner-up in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. So these might just keep him in the game after he was reduced to a very small book last year, duly trimmed to $7,500 (opened at $20,000). His percentages are unexciting and he appears to have rather shot his bolt as a commercial sire, but that won't stop him producing another Coach Rocks (GII Gulfstream Oaks) or two.

Jimmy Creed | Spendthrift

Jimmy Creed (Distorted Humor–Hookedonthefeelin, by Citidancer) represents a very different firm, in Spendthrift. But actually he has so far had nothing like the kind of industrial output sometimes associated with that farm, while having quietly established himself as a most consistent operator at $10,000, temptingly down from $15,000. In fact, his lifetime ratio of black-type winners and performers to named foals (5.2% and 11.5% respectively) is ahead of all these, even Violence (4.5% and 8.7%).

That makes him a really interesting proposition, as a lively start with his first juveniles (20 winners from 44 starters) turned round his book from 67 in 2017 to 165 in 2018. That gives him a big team of juveniles for the year ahead, including yearlings that sold for as much as $500,000 and an average $46,125, while he had another 253 covers across the next two years to keep the pipeline full. In other words, foals conceived now can hope to ride renewed headlines on the track, where he has already produced four graded stakes winners/four Grade I horses. It's all perfectly feasible of a GI Malibu winner whose dam and half-sister Pussycat Doll (Real Quiet) both won the GI La Brea S.

Alternation | Asuncion Pineyrua

Another by the same sire, Alternation (Distorted Humor–Alternate, by Seattle Slew) resembles Paynter with Knicks Go in needing to show that it is not all about GI Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress. Yes, he only has one other graded stakes winner to this point, but eight black-type scorers overall is a respectable percentage of only 199 named foals.

By this stage he's not really pretending to be a commercial sire but the 40 mares he entertained at Pin Oak last year were sent in the knowledge that his half-brother Higher Power (Medaglia d'Oro) has now earned a place at Darby Dan as a runaway winner of the GI Pacific Classic. Their dam is a half-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year Peaks and Valleys (Mt. Livermore) and it's a regal family all round. He has done it once and, given the chance, there's no reason why he shouldn't do it again.

The only other stallion apparently advertising a fee in Kentucky from this group is Raison d'Etat (A.P. Indy–Sightseek, by Distant View) at Calumet, off the bargain peg of $2,500. He is trading primarily on his genes, rather than the limited use he made of them on the track, but has vindicated the theory to a modest degree with a couple of stakes winners so far.

Bottom line is that some of these survivors may have a lean and hungry look, but they're a deserving bunch overall and much better value than almost all the unproven stallions who dominate the market. Here's hoping they consolidate and can earn a place, next time round, in our concluding look at Established Sires.

CHRIS McGRATH'S VALUE PODIUM: Fourth- & Fifth-Crop Sires
Gold: Paynter ($7,500, WinStar)
   Good base behind his headline act, yet cost shrinking
Silver: Cairo Prince ($15,000, Airdrie)
   Star of his class now a tempting fee
Bronze: Jimmy Creed ($10,000, Spendthrift)
   Pipeline is loaded.

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